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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Farage’s biggest mistake was to duck the Eastleigh by elect
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Farage’s biggest mistake was to duck the Eastleigh by election
The very public row that has broken out between Farage and his party’s only MP, Douglas Carswell, was one that had been widely predicted. The only issue was what would spark it off.
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http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2015/may/12/nigel-farage-i-want-to-fight-byelection-in-labour-held-seat
And he has taken UKIP from an anti-EU protest vote to a serious political force.
But the skills needed for start-up CEO and big company CEO are radically different. Bill Gates and Jeff Bezos are the exceptions: most start-up CEOs make rotten big company CEOs and vice-versa.
Ducking Eastleigh is by-the-by. UKIP needs a process person. An organiser. A person who can delegate. Nigel Farage is not that person.
The resignation that wasn't is merely a symptom of this problem. Without a professional leader UKIP will continue to hemorrhage talent, and will underperform its potential.
I very much doubt that Carswell will end up a Tory (despite my desire for Cameron to reach out to him). It's a strong possibility he ends up as an independent (although he'd need to resign again and fight another by-election & there's a good chance he wouldn't win so you need to factor that into the odds). I wouldn't be surprised if he takes the middle route and nominally remains UKIP, but in name only, and does/votes as he sees fit
UKIP clearly have some deciding to do. I quite like Carswell's attitude to this Short money. A grown up party serious about small government would have no problem with a proper scrutiny committee and proper set of accounts. I think that Farage has spent too long as MEP to appreciate the importance of this.
It is symptomatic of Farage's one man band approach to the party that he cannot allow this. If Farage could not win a seat in this election, will he ever get such a chance again? I doubt it. Why should UKIP win by-elections when the euro-ref is on the way? The only by-elections they have ever won were the Clacton and Rochester ones, and those circumstances look unlikely to recur.
It is decision time for UKIP: get serious and professional or take the Farage "It's my party, and I will cry if I want to!" approach.
Bizarre.
A clash of personality and principle was always on the cards with these two, just didn’t expect it to erupt so soon after GE2015. – If Farage is not careful, UKIP’s only MP could walk.
o/t - has the dreaded wrap around SPIN advertisement been cast into the fiery pit?
So all those who had forgotten that the Conservatives were an authoritarian party (among other characeristics) are realising that there is a need for somebody to stand up for liberal values - and that has to be the Liberal Democrats. There is nobody else.
10,000 new members since the election and counting.....
Why should we listen to a thing you say?
ToriesForBurnham™
He had not done his due diligence on UKIP very well if he has not expected regular rucks with its current leader. Politburo purges and flounces are a longstanding feature of UKIP's short history.
So he's a bit stuck. He can go independent if he so wishes and even argue that he need not submit himself to a by-election again because his beliefs have not changed and he has articulated them twice in the last year to his patient electorate. But what is he actually going to achieve as an independent MP?
There is a cap on expenditure for an individual candidate in the long campaign and the short campaign periods. And then there is the national campaign. And there is also the time before the long campaign starts. So, effectively, the cap is not very effective, if you have enough money.
We will see very quickly the difference between Conservative majority government and the coalition, and I think a large number of people will change their minds on coalition. It will be seen as a golden period of good government. Theressa May's snoopers charter is a good example, but will not be the only one.
There is a lot of ground to recover for the LDs, but I do not detect the same fratricidal infighting that is breaking out in the other losing parties of UKIP and Labour.
It is important that the last few years in government are reflected on, but they should not turn into navel gazing.
As one of the signaturies of the US Declaration of Independence said "We must surely hang together, or we shall surely hang seperately"
George Osborne; genius,,,
http://i.dailymail.co.uk/i/pix/2014/06/20/article-2662719-1EEE326200000578-499_634x359.jpg
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cvJLf6REaUc
But MPs have a limited role now. They get to nominate, but after that they get no more formal say than any other member.
Yes, the key to victory was Messina's sophisticated targeting of voters. There was no great popular uprising in support of Cameroonism or in defence of bacon sandwiches, and next time Labour will also have better voter targeting.
The unions determining Labour's leader? What could possibly go wrong?
I think Mr. Smithson may be right, but another problem was Farage's self-destructive comment on resignation. This had the twin effects of making tactical voting against him even more likely, and making him duplicitous when he resigned for three days and then rose again.
Carswell's perspective seems a bit peculiar to me. Not just the refusal to take the money, but not seeming to get why his own party might just be a little bit peeved.
What does it cost to join the LDs or SNP or UKIP or PC as a full member?
1) Farage is crap in Westminster elections, he always loses, he even once finished third in a two horse race
2) UKIP only win Westminster seats when they have the incumbent MP
That said what does "nearly a quarter" mean? A quarter is 58; you need 35 nominations. 35 is closer to 58 than zero.
I do think formal or informal rules need to be laid down governing the behaviour when it comes to politics and comparable issues for heirs (even those down the track but in direct line of succession).
"The predictions were so far off because no company combined online, telephone and mobile phone polls because they were too expensive. “We were able to do that because we had volunteer capacity to do it . . . you gotta go all the way and get this. It’s expensive, it’s difficult, but you’re gonna miss a bunch of close races if you don’t.”
Persuaded to defect by Carswell, he's now lost his seat, and were Carswell to leave UKIP, Reckless will be thinking "OMFG, what the hell was I thinking, was I even thinking?"
Tbh you just sound quite bitter that your party were conclusively rejected at the ballot box in this election.
Nigel #Farage losing here
1994 Eastleigh
1997 Salisbury
2001 Bexhill
2005 Thanet
2006 Bromley
2010 Buckingham
2015 Thanet
Quite.
There is little political or philosophical difference between them.
They are disagreeing about a relatively small sum of money. A 'big' man never worries too much about money. Not an issue, or much of a problem.
What we should be talking about is: who leads the OUT campaign? Both Farage and Carswell have correctly assessed that neither is the right man. But who?
Ronnie Campbell (Blyth Valley) apparently confirmed it is his last term
www.newspostleader.co.uk/news/local/labour-s-ronnie-campbell-delighted-with-election-win-his-final-one-1-7251861
"This is lucky number seven. I have to stop some time, so this will be my last time running.
“I’m 71 now so I think that’ll be enough, but I am delighted to be representing Blyth Valley for another five years, it is an absolute privilege and I thank everyone for voting"
How about a bet: 1pt = a full £1m below £72m for Tory spent in the GE (official figures). I'll be any amount you want up to £5 per point
I also said that one would be a lonely, regret-laden figure.
But if Churchill managed to re-rat....
No point acting like Rome towards Carthage after the second Punic War
I'll wait to see whether or not they're actually "interesting"...
Ultimately, IMO, it's impossible for any future monarch to be as *clean* as QE2. She was cushioned by a compliant media during her younger, more politically inquisitive years and reached constitutional maturity long before the internet came about.
I recon QE2 will be the last superhuman monarch.
Bear in mind though, it is one member one vote now. The unions will have less of a direct say. And Labour have been clear that there will be no repeat of the nonsense where ballot papers came wrapped in pictures of Ed M.
Execution by anti-aircraft gun.
That said, Conservatives were also said to have retained enough in the bank for a second election this year (so perhaps their private polling was not quite so bullish in real time as it became in hindsight).
http://www.thetimes.co.uk/tto/opinion/columnists/article4438536.ece
How many seats has Cameron won since becoming Tory leader? It's a huge number that took two bites to get there - but it's landslide territory numbers from a terrible base.
By UNDER-estimating the scale of victory?
Carswell has refused it on principle but have any other opposition MPs ever refused it on principle? If not, why not?
Farage has a problem here because he's set a higher standard for loose-lipped candidates that have the other parties. I don't think it's been because the media have been intrusive (which they have), it's because he likes discipline. Farage hinted at his views in his resignation speech - he finds it irritating dealing with less-disciplined people who mouth off inappropriately.
Carswell is either a loose cannon or a free-thinker depending on your view. I'm sympathetic, but on that basis, I'd have to sympathise with the foot-in-mouth brigade too. I probably do as I was brought up to think that 'Sticks and stones ...'
You can see why Carswell left the Tories, so I'd expect Farage to make an issue of it. But there's a bit of my party, my rules. But being 100% of the MPs, he makes it awkward for the leader. Just imagine a Labour party with only Skiners, Fields, Corbyns and Hoey's.
Hmm ... might even be an improvement
Labour's gone from 355 to 232.
Edited extra bit: and the Lib Dems from 62 to 8.
and you can bet they won't be pushing for Chuka.