Do you usually negotiate by making it clear you are desperate for an outcome or do you play it cool and get the best possible deal?
Do you start by saying live on National TV, "I want it, I will vote for it", before saying "Well I really don't want it now..." ?
I guess so
You play it exactly as the SNP are playing it.
You make it a clear and defined goal. You wait for your opponents to be forced into offering it and the more likely it gets and the more pressure your opponents get from their supporters, you start to sound as if you are reticent. As the pressure builds on your opponent they are then negotiating from a weak position and believe your position is stronger than they think.
It's a very clear strategy if you understand the fundamental numbers underneath. The Scottish Deficity is ~£7.6bn and Fiscal Transfers from Scotland to England are ~£12bn.
Dair's numbers have been refuted on here in depth, several times.
His post does give a glimpse of the mindset of SNP activists though. UK debt = English debt.
Dairs would not be happy even if wagonloads of gold bullion were being delivered like Danegeld on a weekly basis by yoked Sassenach slaves. It would never be enough.
Fortunately SNP does not equal Scotland where 55% of folk are rather more rational.
Do you usually negotiate by making it clear you are desperate for an outcome or do you play it cool and get the best possible deal?
Do you start by saying live on National TV, "I want it, I will vote for it", before saying "Well I really don't want it now..." ?
I guess so
You play it exactly as the SNP are playing it.
You make it a clear and defined goal. You wait for your opponents to be forced into offering it and the more likely it gets and the more pressure your opponents get from their supporters, you start to sound as if you are reticent. As the pressure builds on your opponent they are then negotiating from a weak position and believe your position is stronger than they think.
It's a very clear strategy if you understand the fundamental numbers underneath. The Scottish Deficity is ~£7.6bn and Fiscal Transfers from Scotland to England are ~£12bn.
Dair's numbers have been refuted on here in depth, several times.
His post does give a glimpse of the mindset of SNP activists though. UK debt = English debt.
Dairs would not be happy even if wagonloads of gold bullion were being delivered like Danegeld on a weekly basis by yoked Sassenach slaves. It would never be enough.
Fortunately SNP does not equal Scotland where 55% of folk are rather more rational.
When did you try and refute it. Feel free to try whatever nonsense you like. But the numbers are solid and it's not in favour of the UK's position.
Is a csv file of the UK election results, scraped from the BBC website.
It's just the absolute bare minimum - excel should open it up fine but if you are using something else then beware of the "Beer, Baccy and Scratchings Party", stupid comma. Should be banned.
If I get time will will work on this more and scrape extra info and format up useful stuff like winning party
Scottish Labour, the country's dominant political force for more than half a century, had lost 39 of its 40 seats to the SNP, including in Murphy's East Renfrewshire constituency. Some of Murphy's supporters were quick to absolve him of blame for the terrible state of his party.
Since 1999, they said Scottish Labour had failed to adapt to devolution, elected a succession of bad leaders, selected dud candidates, produced shoddy manifestos and watched as the party's MPs treated MSPs like second-class citizens.
The lessons from Labour's defeats at the hands of the SNP at the last two Holyrood elections were also ignored and the referendum, which saw the party haemorrhage votes to the SNP, accelerated the decline.
However, other party insiders - candidates, elected representatives and activists - say the new leader made the toxic legacy he inherited worse, not better. "He snatched catastrophe from the jaws of defeat," said one.
Some seats naturally fell off the radar at Labour headquarters, but in the latter stages of the campaign insiders believed favouritism trumped effort as resources were diverted to the established "sons and daughters" - code for Jim Murphy, Douglas Alexander and Margaret Curran, the latter of whom was believed to be an undeserving resource-hogger.
Pretty much every single 'national' SLab event was held in Glasgow East.
Scottish Labour, the country's dominant political force for more than half a century, had lost 39 of its 40 seats to the SNP, including in Murphy's East Renfrewshire constituency. Some of Murphy's supporters were quick to absolve him of blame for the terrible state of his party.
Since 1999, they said Scottish Labour had failed to adapt to devolution, elected a succession of bad leaders, selected dud candidates, produced shoddy manifestos and watched as the party's MPs treated MSPs like second-class citizens.
The lessons from Labour's defeats at the hands of the SNP at the last two Holyrood elections were also ignored and the referendum, which saw the party haemorrhage votes to the SNP, accelerated the decline.
However, other party insiders - candidates, elected representatives and activists - say the new leader made the toxic legacy he inherited worse, not better. "He snatched catastrophe from the jaws of defeat," said one.
Some seats naturally fell off the radar at Labour headquarters, but in the latter stages of the campaign insiders believed favouritism trumped effort as resources were diverted to the established "sons and daughters" - code for Jim Murphy, Douglas Alexander and Margaret Curran, the latter of whom was believed to be an undeserving resource-hogger.
Pretty much every single 'national' SLab event was held in Glasgow East.
I think every time a politician came up from London the event was in Glasgow East.
Brown had "interventions" in Kirkcaldy and Cowdenbeath, Paisley and Renfrewshire South and Glasgow South West.
He's not going to do it, unless he wants the UK out and Cameron forced to support the 'out' vote (he'd also incidentally get a massive poll boost if he press caught him accepting the migrants before immediately sending them back. Junker may be able to force it on the eurozone though.
Is a csv file of the UK election results, scraped from the BBC website.
It's just the absolute bare minimum - excel should open it up fine but if you are using something else then beware of the "Beer, Baccy and Scratchings Party", stupid comma. Should be banned.
If I get time will will work on this more and scrape extra info and format up useful stuff like winning party
My big losing bets were Labour Most Seats, Labour minority government and EICIPM. But overall I did ok.
I hedged out the "overall" positions to more or less nil, and was wondering if my constituency book was looking a bit too blue...
I'm still not believing it all till its safely in the bank though.
I reversed my NOM positions on the night, turning a potential big loss into a profit by being early to realise that the Conservatives were outperforming the exit poll. That justified the earache I got from my other half.
I did exactly the same. I realised sometime around 2am that a Conservative overall majority was possible. I then did a back of an envelope and worked out the result would be between 324-328 seats.
I underestimated.
It's a good job I reversed all my positions on Betfair, otherwise I would have lost over £1,000 on the "dead cert" hung parliament result. I was backing hung parliament at 1.06 as late as 9pm that evening.
We discussed the cherry on the icing of the cake, but we forgot the postprandial brandy...
@georgegalloway: We've begun legal proceedings seeking to have result of the Bfd West election set aside. I cannot therefor discuss my own election for now.
The cigars are on standby
I really hope that brewery he had a run in with has a nice surprise for him....
Edit: Just checked their twitter and they are rather enjoying the election result :-)
My big losing bets were Labour Most Seats, Labour minority government and EICIPM. But overall I did ok.
I hedged out the "overall" positions to more or less nil, and was wondering if my constituency book was looking a bit too blue...
I'm still not believing it all till its safely in the bank though.
I reversed my NOM positions on the night, turning a potential big loss into a profit by being early to realise that the Conservatives were outperforming the exit poll. That justified the earache I got from my other half.
I did exactly the same. I realised sometime around 2am that a Conservative overall majority was possible. I then did a back of an envelope and worked out the result would be between 324-328 seats.
I underestimated.
It's a good job I reversed all my positions on Betfair, otherwise I would have lost over £1,000 on the "dead cert" hung parliament result. I was backing hung parliament at 1.06 as late as 9pm that evening.
Just goes to show, I guess.
Yep you have to be careful with long odds on betting for sure. I made bundles of sub 1.5 Con Constituency bets and they all came in, shortest loser was £200 @ 1-5 Glasgow East - a very poor hedge.
Mr Miliband also said that his party intended to ensure that instances of Islamophobia were marked on peoples’ records, in an interview with The Muslim News.
Although Islamophobia already falls under the Racial and Religious Hatred Act of 2006, whereby it is punishable by up to seven years imprisonment, Mr Miliband’s proposal would allow authorities to hand down tougher sentences for similar crimes.
“We are going to make it an aggravated crime. We are going to make sure it is marked on people’s records with the police to make sure they root out Islamophobia as a hate crime,” he said.
This does not clearly state that he is going to make "Islamophobic assault" an aggravated crime of violence, he talks about Islamophobia in general. Is is quite possibly meaningless crap, but certainly vague enough for people to interpret it as an attack on freedom of speech, making it an offence to criticise Islam, etc.
Labour has form on this. They tried under Blair to introduce legislation which would have put comedians at risk if they satirised Islam hence the opposition to it led by Rowan Atkinson and others. So those of us concerned by what Milliband proposed were right to be concerned that (a) any law would be drawn so loosely as to have that result; and (b) it would become the thin end of the wedge and end up silencing criticisms of Muslims and Islam.
And I feel the same whichever party proposes something similar. Freedom of thought is far too valuable to be given up just because some politician wants to harness a few extra votes.
The real issue here is that political parties need to engage with voters from ethnic / religious minorities as individual citizens not through "community leaders" as if people who are Muslim or Catholic or of Sri Lankan origin are somehow too dumb to be addressed as grown up individuals but can only be spoken to through some intermediator. And this all the more so when there is an undoubted issue with extremist views and behaviour among some in some communities. Treat Muslims as grown ups not as victims to be coddled and patronised. And on occasion some speaking truth to power within that community may be needed.
What needs to stop is this pandering to permanently offended cry-baby so-called community "leaders" who are bullies and often have a quite sinister agenda, completely at odds with the values and expectations of a Western liberal democracy. Doing so just feeds the extremist meme rather than confront and eliminate it. That's all.
'Dair's numbers have been refuted on here in depth, several times.'
Funny to see the back peddling from Sturgeon when Andrew Marr suggested that Cameron might give Scotland FFA.
David Davies had previously pointed out that Scotland raises 3% less per capita in taxes than the rest of the UK but spends 12% more. Not difficult to spend money you don't have to raise or be accountable for.
The Tories have 319 out of 533 seats, a majority of over 100 seats. If ever there was a time to legislate for an English parliament or EV4EL, it is now.
This election result was truly catastrophic for the centre-left. It's simply earth shattering. The Conservative achievement of a workable majority is a game changer.
If boundary reform goes through, which it will, the Conservatives will probably gain a further 15 seats in England, at the expense of Labour. That makes the gap 189 seats to 334 seats. The Liberal Democrats will still hold eight seats, but who knows if they'll hold onto any under the new boundaries?
I think they're out of the picture for a generation.
If EV4EL goes through, it gives the Conservatives a 135 seat majority in England going into the 2020 general election. That truly is Thatcher landslide territory, and a working majority in England will be crucial to any future UK government.
The Conservative vote-share and result under FPTP should be no real crumb of comfort: over 55% of the English voted for clear centre-right parties favouring tax-cuts, protection of defence, immigration control, EV4EL and Euroscepticism. The equivalent figures for the Left (Labour + Green) are just a shade over 35%. PR is no counter-argument: we've have had a Con-UKIP coalition with an ever bigger majority.
All of that's before we consider the remarkable ineptitude and lack of self-awareness within the Labour party. Further blunders could easily see it lose a swathe of seats in the North East to UKIP, just as happened in Scotland this time.
Only a total and fundamental rethink will now do. Or the Left will be out of power for a very long time indeed.
Since the election..which Labour lost..the news channels..all of them..twitter..and even PB, have been full of Labourites telling us how badly they were treated and how misunderstood they were.With this attitude Labour are unlikely to win an election in the UK for several generations.
My big losing bets were Labour Most Seats, Labour minority government and EICIPM. But overall I did ok.
I hedged out the "overall" positions to more or less nil, and was wondering if my constituency book was looking a bit too blue...
I'm still not believing it all till its safely in the bank though.
I reversed my NOM positions on the night, turning a potential big loss into a profit by being early to realise that the Conservatives were outperforming the exit poll. That justified the earache I got from my other half.
I did exactly the same. I realised sometime around 2am that a Conservative overall majority was possible. I then did a back of an envelope and worked out the result would be between 324-328 seats.
I underestimated.
It's a good job I reversed all my positions on Betfair, otherwise I would have lost over £1,000 on the "dead cert" hung parliament result. I was backing hung parliament at 1.06 as late as 9pm that evening.
Just goes to show, I guess.
Yep you have to be careful with long odds on betting for sure. I made bundles of sub 1.5 Con Constituency bets and they all came in, shortest loser was £200 @ 1-5 Glasgow East - a very poor hedge.
Catching up on a couple of threads over the weekend (I've been so exhausted and partied out, I've been taking a break from pb.com) it sounds like you had a very good night.
Congratulations.
I ended up about £1,600 up overall. It would have been £400 higher, but I could only close down my hung parliament positions at a large potential profit loss.
Almost all my consistency bets game in (but annoyed at Ynys Mon and surprised Birmingham Northfield and Edgbaston didn't go) but made quite a bit of cash on Libdemgeddon, including Bath and Cheltenham which I had repeatedly and heavily tipped on here.
'Dair's numbers have been refuted on here in depth, several times.'
Funny to see the back peddling from Sturgeon when Andrew Marr suggested that Cameron might give Scotland FFA.
David Davies had previously pointed out that Scotland raises 3% less per capita in taxes than the rest of the UK but spends 12% more. Not difficult to spend money you don't have to raise or be accountable for.
I wonder if THIS will be discussed at length for days on here or OH LOOK A SQUIRREL
Christ, I am sick of lefties complaining here about the paucity, both in quantity and quality, of lefty contributions. I agree about the paucity, but whose fault is it? You want it discussed, why don't you fecking discuss it? We can't write your posts for you. At least we could, and better than you do, but you need to learn to stand on your own two feet.
Comments
His post does give a glimpse of the mindset of SNP activists though. UK debt = English debt.
Dairs would not be happy even if wagonloads of gold bullion were being delivered like Danegeld on a weekly basis by yoked Sassenach slaves. It would never be enough.
Fortunately SNP does not equal Scotland where 55% of folk are rather more rational.
If we believe Messina / Crosby, all this about "on the day late swing" was worth a tiny amount if any.
Poor Ed he was still convinced at 10pm on the night that he had done it.
http://www.lefigaro.fr/international/2015/05/10/01003-20150510ARTFIG00017-migrants-juncker-veut-imposer-des-quotas.php
https://www.dropbox.com/s/6mb2iroir0odk1h/2015results.csv?dl=0
Is a csv file of the UK election results, scraped from the BBC website.
It's just the absolute bare minimum - excel should open it up fine but if you are using something else then beware of the "Beer, Baccy and Scratchings Party", stupid comma. Should be banned.
If I get time will will work on this more and scrape extra info and format up useful stuff like winning party
Pretty much every single 'national' SLab event was held in Glasgow East.
I think every time a politician came up from London the event was in Glasgow East.
Brown had "interventions" in Kirkcaldy and Cowdenbeath, Paisley and Renfrewshire South and Glasgow South West.
What did you use to scrape the data?
I underestimated.
It's a good job I reversed all my positions on Betfair, otherwise I would have lost over £1,000 on the "dead cert" hung parliament result. I was backing hung parliament at 1.06 as late as 9pm that evening.
Just goes to show, I guess.
Labour has form on this. They tried under Blair to introduce legislation which would have put comedians at risk if they satirised Islam hence the opposition to it led by Rowan Atkinson and others. So those of us concerned by what Milliband proposed were right to be concerned that (a) any law would be drawn so loosely as to have that result; and (b) it would become the thin end of the wedge and end up silencing criticisms of Muslims and Islam.
And I feel the same whichever party proposes something similar. Freedom of thought is far too valuable to be given up just because some politician wants to harness a few extra votes.
The real issue here is that political parties need to engage with voters from ethnic / religious minorities as individual citizens not through "community leaders" as if people who are Muslim or Catholic or of Sri Lankan origin are somehow too dumb to be addressed as grown up individuals but can only be spoken to through some intermediator. And this all the more so when there is an undoubted issue with extremist views and behaviour among some in some communities. Treat Muslims as grown ups not as victims to be coddled and patronised. And on occasion some speaking truth to power within that community may be needed.
What needs to stop is this pandering to permanently offended cry-baby so-called community "leaders" who are bullies and often have a quite sinister agenda, completely at odds with the values and expectations of a Western liberal democracy. Doing so just feeds the extremist meme rather than confront and eliminate it. That's all.
'Dair's numbers have been refuted on here in depth, several times.'
Funny to see the back peddling from Sturgeon when Andrew Marr suggested that Cameron might give Scotland FFA.
David Davies had previously pointed out that Scotland raises 3% less per capita in taxes than the rest of the UK but spends 12% more.
Not difficult to spend money you don't have to raise or be accountable for.
If boundary reform goes through, which it will, the Conservatives will probably gain a further 15 seats in England, at the expense of Labour. That makes the gap 189 seats to 334 seats. The Liberal Democrats will still hold eight seats, but who knows if they'll hold onto any under the new boundaries?
I think they're out of the picture for a generation.
If EV4EL goes through, it gives the Conservatives a 135 seat majority in England going into the 2020 general election. That truly is Thatcher landslide territory, and a working majority in England will be crucial to any future UK government.
The Conservative vote-share and result under FPTP should be no real crumb of comfort: over 55% of the English voted for clear centre-right parties favouring tax-cuts, protection of defence, immigration control, EV4EL and Euroscepticism. The equivalent figures for the Left (Labour + Green) are just a shade over 35%. PR is no counter-argument: we've have had a Con-UKIP coalition with an ever bigger majority.
All of that's before we consider the remarkable ineptitude and lack of self-awareness within the Labour party. Further blunders could easily see it lose a swathe of seats in the North East to UKIP, just as happened in Scotland this time.
Only a total and fundamental rethink will now do. Or the Left will be out of power for a very long time indeed.
Congratulations.
I ended up about £1,600 up overall. It would have been £400 higher, but I could only close down my hung parliament positions at a large potential profit loss.
Almost all my consistency bets game in (but annoyed at Ynys Mon and surprised Birmingham Northfield and Edgbaston didn't go) but made quite a bit of cash on Libdemgeddon, including Bath and Cheltenham which I had repeatedly and heavily tipped on here.
...he won more seats for Labour than Foot did in 1983 and Kinnock did in 1987!
'That is simply not true.'
If that's not true why was Sturgeon suddenly back peddling at Marr's FFA suggestion and agreed their would be a massive black hole without Barnett?
Scotland pays a higher percentage than its population percentage in all 15 Yeats covered by the accounts.