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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Time for Labour to make a clean break from its economic pas
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Time for Labour to make a clean break from its economic past
My bold prediction for the 2020 General Election, the economy will dominate it, as much as it did this year, even if the economy is performing badly, which will be particularly bad news if your name is Liam Byrne, as the argument will be framed in terms of the situation the Tories inherited in 2010.
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On Chukka, I wonder if he just naturally appears a bit sneery to me, like an equivalent to what is termed 'resting b****face'. He should work on that. Unless it's an accurate reflection of his opinions, which would be a deeper problem.
No, third like Nicola.
FPT
Watched Leslie, Osborne is on for a free ride.
Would like to see one of the interviewers ask him if he accepts Labour spent too much.
The answer will tell us all we need to know.
Liam Byrne's letter will be like the Winter Of Discontent - The Tories will still be reminding voters about it in another ten years time.
I thought Labour had made a clean break from their spending past?
They pretended it never happened.
I could see the case for leaving becoming even greater. The concessions gained from the EU having not worked would make an argument for leaving even stronger.
'Tom Watson is one of the frontrunners for Deputy Leader, as we wrote yesterday. Whilst he’s yet to formally announce his candidacy, it certainly seems like he will be – as he’s started crowdfunding his Deputy Leadership bid.'
Has Harman said she will be resigning as well or does she have to get re-elected?
Maybe they should listen to Frank Field.
What happens if a woman wins the leadership but no men have run for the deputy leadership (or the man that did run comes last?) or vice versa. Presumably that could mean that someone who hasn't done well in the deputy vote could be made deputy leader regardless?
What if, say, Chuka Umunna wins the leadership and Tom Watson wins, say, 60% of the deputy vote? Presumably Tom Watson is then not allowed to become deputy leader and it goes to a woman who has a significant minority of votes?
All seems a bit dubious.
There is no more monery.
'.It seems notable that the crucial moment for some is that Labour refused to admit they spent too much, but there are plenty of voices on the left saying the problem is the opposite - that they did not defend enough that they did not overspend.'
Even more absurd is the claim from Paul Flynn.
'It was entirely true that the past Labour Government did not waste money. But politics is not determined by truths. It is informed by perceptions. '
Going to be very interesting, remember the most 'left' candidate in Red Ed won last time.
The problem, as Lord Prescott observes, and as has been noted on pb in the past, is that Labour's choosing to say nothing at all about the economy for the past five years has meant that the Conservatives' narrative became established.
It's amazing the relief one can feel, watching the video, and knowing that Miliband will not be running the country.
Nick Clegg as President of the EU
Danny Alexander as Secretary General of the UN
David Laws as Secretary General of NATO
Vince Cable as British Ambassador to the Islamic State
We all know the EU will gives us a second chance to get the right answer. We should all vote OUT to maximise Cameron's negotiating hand.
It's our patriotic duty.
As far as they are concerned increasing spending actually reduces the deficit, which was caused entirely by the banks who are just Tories anyway.
And the more labour stick their head in the sand and don't recognise what the voters see the longer they'll have to wait for a comeback.
And their solution is to spend even more.
1) Exit would provoke a Scottish Indyref mark 2; possibly also annoying Wales and NI. This would end the UK.
2) Referendums are often treated as a way to kick the party in power, whatever the issue
3) Referendums usually have undecideds breaking for the status quo
4) Polls on the EU exit have noticeably shifted in favour of In.
His counter argument for why Canada and Australia were fine was well they didn't have exposure to financial services...i don't need to go any further.
1. The 25% of UKIP voters who were wavering voting Tory- A large proportion especially in the east and south east ended up voting Tory.
2. The Labour voters who didn't vote last time. This was a big proportion of the labour vote and it was always a big 'if' on them voting. I think it's fair to say that they didn't- the turnout was roughly the same in the England and Wales (Scotland was up but for different reasons).
3. The labour voters who didn't like EDM, would they vote labour? It will be interesting reading some more views, but I think that there was a fair proportion, especially in the midlands, who ended up voting Tory
4. Con/ Lib Dem marginal - will the labour vote stay with the Lib Dem. If you've read the Times you will how much the Labour vote increased in these seats. I think it's a fair conclusion to draw that there was some tactical unwind of core labour people who couldn't forgive the Lib Dems for being in the coalition with the Tories. However some of the swings here were staggering and I think the SNP/ Labour warnings really shifted votes here in a way that few could imagine.
As for going forward and 2020, it will be much harder for Labour on the maths side due to the new boundaries and the fact that the Tories did well in increasing there vote in the marginals. At the moment Labour have a brand that attracts but policies and leaders that repel. They have to break away from a view held by many Labour voters that I talked to that they represent London and an intellectual elite who know how to live your life so much better than you do. Not agreeing to a EU referendum played into that view. The message has to move away from minorities and special interest groups. I think 2020 will be a pivotal election for Labour, a poor election will embed the lose of Scotland and open the door for UKIP in the North. A kneejerk decision on a leader without reviewing and understanding the lessons form 2015 is a great gamble.
Brilliant move for Labour - appoint a Nick Clegg lookalike.
1, who gives a shit about Wales, the Jocks or the paddies, they have votes let them cast them
2. The referendum has been declared it's now in play with all the inherent risks
3. certainly, but this is an EU referendum we get to vote lots of times
4. yes so that's why we should vote out to secure the best deal going.
All the talk down thread about various immigrant groups and how they vote. He tells a story of how in the past he managed to organize a win in an area dominated by first generation immigrants.
I would be interested to see if the Tories tried the same kind of targeted approach in this GE and if they worked at all...hence why I was interested in the Exit Poll demographic data (which we wont get).
"I have a dream that my four little children will one day live in a nation where they will not be judged by the color of their skin, but by the content of their character".
The sooner Labour realises this the better.
The Labour Party is the largest on Brighton and Hove City Council, winning 23 of the 54 seats in the local elections.
The Conservatives are the next largest party, with 20 seats, and the Greens have 11.
Brighton & Hove news
Tin foil hat time -- my suspicion is this was agreed with the Blairites to prevent civil war, and the idea was that after his presumed triumph leading Better Together, Alistair Darling would return to London as SCotE and (Miliband's rival) Balls would be consigned to history.
Looks like things for labour will have to get worse before they get better.
Naz Shah: Bradford West's Labour candidate pens emotional open letter explaining why she wants to be an MP
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/people/naz-shah-bradford-wests-labour-candidate-pens-emotional-open-letter-explaining-why-she-wants-to-be-an-mp-10096426.html
George Galloway blames 'racists and Zionists' for defeat to Naz Shah in Bradford West
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/people/george-galloway-blames-racists-and-zionists-for-defeat-to-naz-shah-in-bradford-west-10234791.html
He is claiming to want to make the country kinder and fairer. Has there ever been a less kind or fair Labour bruiser than Watson??
Given the SNP landslide, it's clear that the Scottish people want to become a nation in their own right. As an Englishman, why would I want to stop that? I think it would be far more constructive to set out a sensible, phased approach to allow that to become a reality, rather than agonise over 'losing the Union', which quite frankly, means absolutely nothing to me.
Labour are in trouble because the likes of Prescott say they did not overspend. The Blairites know they did.
Robert Harris in the Sunday Times is scathing about Miliband.
He points out he was not 'weak' but tough self confident... and deluded.
plus,
''although not a Marxist, has a Marxist’s habit of thought: a tendency to develop a universal theory and then to adjust objective reality to fit it, rather than the other way round. Miliband’s theory, unwaveringly held, was that the globalised economy after the 2008 crash had produced vastly increased inequality; that this inequality is unsustainable''. Miliband was deluded into thinking there was a mood of public anger.
Take zero hours contracts - ''People on zero-hours contracts, according to the Office for National Statistics, represent only 2.3% of the workforce, almost two-thirds of whom describe themselves as happy with their employment'' - higher than those in normal employment.
He points out that Kinnock can only continue ''to blame the people for succumbing to what Marxists call “false consciousness”.
Delusion - thats what lies at the heart of Labour's problems. I only mention it as a caution to Toryphiles.
11-4 Conservatives. London Mayor. There are enough places like Twickers and Battersea to make this a value punt.
Jeez, he'll be calling it Looez and Creywey as well I presume
She did state that she thought that positivity and aspiration was the what was missing in Labours campaign, but was careful to speak up for trade unions and their role in society.
I am glad that I topped up last night; odds are shortening on her by the hour.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-28150247
Bit of a frustrating race.
If Sturgeon wants us to only leave the EU if the whole UK and every one of the four constituent parts vote that way, she should be told to piss off. It's one country. We know that, because the Scots said so last year.
It's like being stuck in a marriage when the other half doesn't love you anymore. If you could make it work you would, but there comes a point where you just don't care anymore
Energy prices was a better move, as everybody is affected by them, but is policy was stupid / counter productive and also prices started to fall.
What do we remember most from Blair's campaign, Education, Education, Education...what does most of middle England have or aspire to have, kids, and most can't really afford private fees.
Or perhaps there needs to be a majority in each county?
No, that's silly. Let's make it every town...
Some academics are bloody morons.
I hope Labour do select Khan, I pretty much know I've won at that point.
Jowell is the other candidate I've covered. I think she wins vs any Conservative except Coe.