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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Only divorce can save the Union

SystemSystem Posts: 12,217
edited May 2015 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Only divorce can save the Union

Unprecedented is not what it used to be. The splintering of the party system and the increasing willingness of voters to shop around means that the previously extraordinary has become rather routine. To take one example, prior to this week, in no election since 1918 had more than three parties polled over a million votes each*; this year, six did so.

Read the full story here


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Comments

  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,950
    An excellent piece David. Electorally, it really is hard to see the down-side now for the Tories to form a separate Scottish party. Emotionally, it gives a de facto recognition of the end of Union...
  • asjohnstoneasjohnstone Posts: 1,276
    Fine in theory, but in practice pointless.

    Could you imagine a Scottish Labour leader going to london after an election and trying to negotiate a coalition deal with a English labour leader ?

    The union is dead, i don't see anyway back from this, without a fundamental reorganisation of the British state, that means the end of the current Westminister system, the same levels of devolution in all four countries and some kind of senate to handle the few things like defence that remain.

    The political will to do so doesn't exist, some kind of half arsed patchup will be attempted instead.
  • scotslassscotslass Posts: 912
    David

    Yes this is a good article but suffers badly from not understanding the clear perspective from Scotland.

    For example, no-one who has experienced how much Jim Murphy is loathed by the great majority of people could possibly think he has any future in Scottish politics. Scottish Labour must gamble on the next generation and do it quickly. There is no real chance of having a serious impact on next year's elections but total implosion might be avoided if the old guard is sent packing now.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,950
    Pleased to note that the SNP got 50% of the vote in Scotland - as I had been predicting here for months. There really was no excuse not to have made money on this election! Well done to those who got on the 0-5 Labour seats bet early. It was the obvious logical corollary of the SNP polling 50%+. But it did require battling against the emotional brake that "surely, Labour can't go that low?"

    I was also very bearish on the LibDems. I think I was the lowest in the original competition entry with 17 seats - although pretty sure some brave souls went lower during the second iteration. That required saying there were long-held seats with large majorities - Bath, Cheltenham, Yeovil, Twickenham for example - that again required battling against the emotional brake that "surely, the LibDems can't go that low?". And there was some support for that scepticism in the shape of Lord Ashcroft's Q2 in the seat polls. I never understood the divergence between responses to Q1 and Q2. In the Torbay poll for example, the LibDems losing by a few thousand turned into a safe hold? Why?

    The later regional South-West poll (for ITN?) was much more in line with Q1. And (correctly) devastating for the LibDems. It was also in line with reports of those who were actively campaigning. I reported back on here that the Tories were throwing their big names into defeating their erstwhile Coalition colleagues. (Why else was May going to Yeovil? I think JackW suggested it was a courtesy call - to have afternoon tea!) When asked about seats they had visited, folks on the Tory's Team 2015 Battle Bus told me (again, reported back here) that Yeovil was close and that Cheltenham was VERY much in play. These were a hard-core flying squad of seasoned canvassers, for a week at a time getting up at 6 and going to bed at 11 - they knew what they were doing, and knew what they were hearing on the ground.

    This plays into another issue. Labour convinced themselves that Tory seats had been hollowed out of activists by defections to UKP. There was no-one to fight their wave upon wave of (union) activists, no-one left to fight a ground-war.

    Wrong.

    There were leaflet teams on the ground. But there was also a huge behind-the-scenes effort in the 40:40 seats to find the voters, profile the voters, send those voters targeted letters, get those voters to the polls - an effort like never before. I suspect posters here like IOS and Compouter had no idea of the scale of this operation. Even Nick Palmer seemed blithely unaware of the efforts being made in his own constituency.

    If there is one lesson to take away from this general election, it is this: never, EVER under-estimate the desire of the Conservative Party to get into and hold onto power.

  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @Aidan_Kerr1: Despite tactical voting the Scottish Conservatives are up 20,000 votes and finish 3rd for the 1st time since 1992.

    It doesn't seem to me there is any need for a major rebranding just yet.

    There are also many more acts to this play.

    The separatists thought they had won last year, and it didn't work out like that.

    They thought they would be writing Ed Miliband's first budget, and it didn't work out like that.

    Now Cameron is apparently offering FFA giving the Nats Hobson's choice of saying "no, we didn't really want it" or accepting a financial black hole they then have to explain to the Scots. Neither of those options seems on the surface likely to endear them
  • MillsyMillsy Posts: 900
    It would be weird for the Scottish Conservatives to have two separate parties considering they are the most unionist bunch.

    It would be interesting for Scotland to have FFA so they actually have responsibility for raising taxes rather than just spend spend spend
  • MillsyMillsy Posts: 900
    Interesting if short video from Newsnight on "shy Tories"

    https://t.co/hXShcKGd22
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,950
    Millsy said:

    It would be weird for the Scottish Conservatives to have two separate parties considering they are the most unionist bunch.

    It would be interesting for Scotland to have FFA so they actually have responsibility for raising taxes rather than just spend spend spend

    But...what is FFA? To the Nats, it requires them to have all the oil taxation revenues.... Until they get that, they will say they don't have true Scottish FFA. And giving them oil taxation revenues only happens when they get full independence, not fiscal autonomy.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453

    Labour convinced themselves that Tory seats had been hollowed out of activists by defections to UKP. There was no-one to fight their wave upon wave of (union) activists, no-one left to fight a ground-war.

    I suspect posters here like IOS and Compouter had no idea of the scale of this operation. Even Nick Palmer seemed blithely unaware of the efforts being made in his own constituency.

    Ed Miliband even added it to his stump speech, claiming that they didn't exist.
  • SimonStClareSimonStClare Posts: 7,976
    Morning all.

    And thanks once again Mr Herdson, for your thoughts. – Not sure if setting ‘Scottish parties free’ at this point would achieve a great deal quite honestly, apart from hastening an entirely independent Scotland, although I appreciate the concept. – The trouble surely would be that if affiliation with a mother party was actively discouraged, or broken entirely for the sake of nationalistic integrity, time and natural evolution would morph it into something else entirely.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    Fascinating article Mr Herdson.

    I did a little digging on the old Scottish Unionist Party:

    "Compared to the Conservative Party's pre-1886 record in Scotland, as well as the post-1965 Scottish Conservative and Unionist Party, the 1912-1965 Scottish Unionist Party's electoral record stands out as a success"

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Unionist_Party_(Scotland)

    One key advantage they may have had over Labour was "Scottish" (trans "not London") - which they threw away.

    I think Labour has the trickier problem. A party that is dominated by London membership cannot but have a different world view to that from the housing schemes encircling Glasgow and throughout the central belt - or a rather condescending view of what people there should think.......

    For the Tories on the other hand, a 'small state' is a 'small state' either side of the border, as is a 'help up, not hand out'
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,415
    edited May 2015
    Tim Farron into 1.29/1.36 for the Lib Dem leadership/

    Another tip at evens by @Tissue_Price
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    When do we start betting on Next Labour Leader?
    Labour sources said that the party’s national executive committee would decide a timetable for the election. However, in a move designed to avoid the mistakes of 2010, the sources said it was likely that the contest would be finished by the summer so that the new leader would be installed before the party conference season in autumn.

    This prompted an immediate row, with some possible candidates suggesting that the race should run for longer.

    Some Blairite MPs could call for the return of David Miliband
    http://www.thetimes.co.uk/tto/news/politics/article4435330.ece

    I understand Shadsy had a "sub-optimal" result yesterday which may be why he is trying to restock the coffers by offering 50/1 for Lucy Powell :)
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,950
    Lucy Powell....

    The emblem of all that was wrong with Ed Miliband's efforts. When he makes somebody that dumb, that incoherent as his Spokesman, you can only shudder at the thought of just how bad he would have been as Prime Minister.

    It is with huge relief that I can say, one last time:

    Ed Mliband Will Never Be Prime Minister

    (If Labour would like to have the pb.Tories on its selection panel, for next leader, we will be happy to give our two-penneth. We have a proven track record on assessing our opponents....)
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,415
    @MarqueeMark I thought Kevin was on a knife edge, and that Eastleigh in particular was fantasy land. Fortunately had far more money on the blues in the SW than the yellows though :D
  • Beverley_CBeverley_C Posts: 6,256
    Pulpstar said:

    Tim Farron into 1.29/1.36 for the Lib Dem leadership/

    Another tip at evens by @Tissue_Price

    Farron? He does not impress me much. I know that the LibDems have little to work with but surely they can do better than him?
  • john_zimsjohn_zims Posts: 3,399
    Are there any odds on Bercow remaining Speaker in the new parliament?
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,415

    Pulpstar said:

    Tim Farron into 1.29/1.36 for the Lib Dem leadership/

    Another tip at evens by @Tissue_Price

    Farron? He does not impress me much. I know that the LibDems have little to work with but surely they can do better than him?
    Is he too short or is he an actual shoo in though.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 55,031
    Morning all. Just about got the body clock back to somewhere approaching normal after two days of too much drinking and not enough sleeping!

    For those among us with slightly hazy memories:

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/general-election-2015/11593424/Election-2015-sketch-Look.-None-of-the-following-things-actually-happened.-Did-they.html
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    Scott_P said:


    I understand Shadsy had a "sub-optimal" result yesterday which may be why he is trying to restock the coffers by offering 50/1 for Lucy Powell :)

    They (or at least the unions...) did pick Ed Miliband....
  • Beverley_CBeverley_C Posts: 6,256
    edited May 2015
    Mr Herdson - your analysis is interesting but I feel that it would be a sticking plaster solution. To give any degree of autonomy to the scots just reinforces the SNP view that they are doing everything right. The independence issue us still very much alive.

    It is time for a fully federal UK with the scots organising their own politics. Any less will lead to full independence
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,044
    Sandpit said:

    Morning all. Just about got the body clock back to somewhere approaching normal after two days of too much drinking and not enough sleeping!

    For those among us with slightly hazy memories:

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/general-election-2015/11593424/Election-2015-sketch-Look.-None-of-the-following-things-actually-happened.-Did-they.html

    This PB Tory can't quite believe it.
  • SquareRootSquareRoot Posts: 7,095
    edited May 2015
    Last night someone posted about the last minute of voting by Labour voters who went into the booth ...and voted Tory because they couldn't vote for Miliband. How true is this?? It would be interesting to find out how people voted and why.
    Personally I think it was the last debate sinking in when ED denied that Labour had overspent and he was attacked from all sides..
    It was is and always will be the economy stupid and Labour could not be trusted. History teaches us that the Tories have to clear up the mess left by Labour..
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    john_zims said:

    Are there any odds on Bercow remaining Speaker in the new parliament?

    Squeaky bum time for Johnny boy

    Of all the amazing and wonderful things that happened so far, that really would be the cherry on the icing of the delicious cake of GE2015
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,950
    Pulpstar said:

    @MarqueeMark I thought Kevin was on a knife edge, and that Eastleigh in particular was fantasy land. Fortunately had far more money on the blues in the SW than the yellows though :D

    Well done! I was pretty sure that Kevin was going to make it over the line - my experience on the doorstep was more in keeping with His Lordship's Q1 than Q2 - but Sanders had 18 years of getting to know people and generally being a well-liked guy. We worked it throughout as though we were still behind on polling day. The only way to tackle LibDem Limpets!

    Eastleigh didn't surprise. There was polling done at the by-election showing many Kippers would return to the blue corner at the general.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,718
    edited May 2015
    I do wonder, looking at the Tory target operations whether they came close on occasion the breaching the financial aspects of the RPA.
    Secondly, I feel quite sorry for Nick Clegg. From being a Golden Boy a few years ago he’s now in a dreadful place. Could well have been better for him personally if he’d lost. He could then have gone back to Brussels and or journalism and before long wounds would have healed. Now he’s got to sit in the HoC, presumably as Foreign Affairs spokesman, because unlike EdM he can’t be an anonymous back-bencher. He’ll be sitting on the Opposition side, looking at former Government “colleagues”, knowing that those colleagues planned to, and succeeded in defeating his party. And the House can be a cruel place sometimes.

    Politics is a rough old trade, but Nick’s had it rougher than many.
  • MonikerDiCanioMonikerDiCanio Posts: 5,792
    Something tells me that come the next GE Stephen Kinnock will be Labour's leader. This nepotistic ultra-elitist outrage would be typical of the monstrosity that Labour has become.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    Sandpit said:

    Morning all. Just about got the body clock back to somewhere approaching normal after two days of too much drinking and not enough sleeping!

    For those among us with slightly hazy memories:

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/general-election-2015/11593424/Election-2015-sketch-Look.-None-of-the-following-things-actually-happened.-Did-they.html

    ED ACTUAL BALLS!

    How we shall miss him...
  • nichomarnichomar Posts: 7,483
    The Lib Dems should avoid a leader election if at all possible, the MPs should be able to ensure one nomination only, why have the expense and the humiliation of appearing split . Nice quiet transfer of leader and then on to the real business of how we rebuild
  • MillsyMillsy Posts: 900
    I still can't believe how poorly Labour did especially considering the Lib Dem collapse. Use the excellent BBC website to search constituencies across the country, you will find many marginals where Labour have basically stood still and most of the movement is from the Lib Dems to Ukip and, to a lesser extent, to the Tories depending on the seat.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    Cursed with the conviction of the righteous, Labour simply couldn’t conceive that it could have done any harm in the first place. Hence, Ken Livingstone on BBC ONE yesterday morning, confidently stating that his party’s fatal error was to be too Blairite. Yes, Ken, that must be why that space hopper in human form, Ed Balls, finally got a puncture and lost his seat. The good people of Leeds were upset that Labour was insufficiently bonkers.

    Even worse was Lord Kinnock, who popped up in the small hours to tell us, with breathtaking arrogance and condescension, that the British people always made the stupid mistake of not voting for his party because they swallowed evil Tory lies that Labour was bad for the economy.

    Now, where could we possibly have got that idea from?
    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/general-election-2015/11593953/The-elections-other-winner-The-great-British-public.html
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    As a friend's mum said, “I’m very happy the country is apparently more intelligent than social media makes it seem.”
    http://www.independent.co.uk/voices/comment/im-a-proud-tory-but-with-the-left-this-belligerent-and-selfrighteous-is-it-any-wonder-that-so-many-of-us-are-shy-10236544.html
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    edited May 2015

    Pulpstar said:

    @MarqueeMark I thought Kevin was on a knife edge, and that Eastleigh in particular was fantasy land. Fortunately had far more money on the blues in the SW than the yellows though :D

    Well done! I was pretty sure that Kevin was going to make it over the line - my experience on the doorstep was more in keeping with His Lordship's Q1 than Q2 - but Sanders had 18 years of getting to know people and generally being a well-liked guy. We worked it throughout as though we were still behind on polling day. The only way to tackle LibDem Limpets!

    Eastleigh didn't surprise. There was polling done at the by-election showing many Kippers would return to the blue corner at the general.
    Eastleigh and Great Grimsby were my best constituency bets, apart from a few longshot low stakes Scottish ones tipped by malcolmg. I missed most of the value in Scotland as I waited to see if the indyref surge would flatten.

    The other one I did well on as a result of Scotland was the Lab sub 250 seat band as a secondary effect.

    Both the UKIP and LD performances looked too unpredictable so I took the strategy of backing the principle challenger in their "safest" seats and the party in their more longshot targets. I did well on this and surprised myself at how close Clacton was.
  • felixfelix Posts: 15,173
    nichomar said:

    The Lib Dems should avoid a leader election if at all possible, the MPs should be able to ensure one nomination only, why have the expense and the humiliation of appearing split . Nice quiet transfer of leader and then on to the real business of how we rebuild

    Makes a lot of sense - but Farron would be a big mistake. There was talk of a merger with Labour - a great idea as that would hand the whole of southern England to the Tories pretty well forever.
  • felixfelix Posts: 15,173
    I think the future of UKIP is more interesting - a leader like Nuttall could seriously threaten Labour in the north. More power to their elbow. :)
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    felix said:

    Makes a lot of sense - but Farron would be a big mistake. There was talk of a merger with Labour - a great idea as that would hand the whole of southern England to the Tories pretty well forever.

    There is also a market on next Shadow Chancellor

    Nick Clegg 50/1
  • felixfelix Posts: 15,173
    edited May 2015
    A final comment b4 I'm off to the shops - how about a shout out for the great, much underestimated and maligned on here, David Cameron, the first leader of a Conservative government since Major. :)
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 55,031
    edited May 2015
    Scott_P said:

    Sandpit said:

    Morning all. Just about got the body clock back to somewhere approaching normal after two days of too much drinking and not enough sleeping!

    For those among us with slightly hazy memories:

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/general-election-2015/11593424/Election-2015-sketch-Look.-None-of-the-following-things-actually-happened.-Did-they.html

    ED ACTUAL BALLS!

    How we shall miss him...
    If ever were a reason needed for drinking champagne in the morning, Ed Balls was that reason.

    I'll be able to tell my grandchildren on election nights of the future that I stayed up for Ed Balls!
  • madasafishmadasafish Posts: 659
    Completed LONG YouGov post election survey.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,950

    Completed LONG YouGov post election survey.

    Did it ask you about why you thought YouGov fucked up the election?
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,706

    Completed LONG YouGov post election survey.

    Would be funny if it showed a 33-33 Lab Con Tie.
  • nichomarnichomar Posts: 7,483
    Do UKIP have a long term future, once we have the referendum regardless of result they will have no reason to exist. Probably why the Tories are so lean on the idea as that could lead to a united right of center vote ruling for years to come. Unless of course they screw up with their own demographics.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 55,031
    nichomar said:

    The Lib Dems should avoid a leader election if at all possible, the MPs should be able to ensure one nomination only, why have the expense and the humiliation of appearing split . Nice quiet transfer of leader and then on to the real business of how we rebuild

    It turned out to be a mini van rather than the proverbial taxi needed for the LD MPs, but yes you would think that they could choose one among themselves to be in charge while they regroup and decide what they stand for as a party.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    Hugo Rifkind on Shy Tories
    People, like I said, will confess anything. Anything. Anything. Except, it seems, that they’re going to vote Tory.

    Which is odd. Isn’t it odd? Especially as you can always tell a Tory, anyway. They have backcombing and blazers, don’t they? Sometimes both at once. They’re middle-aged, or look it. They do that little vomit in the back of their throat whenever they have to speak to ethnic minorities, even if they are from an ethnic minority. They live in suburban houses with pretentious rustic stylings, where they make aspiring wizard schoolchildren sleep in cupboards under the stairs. Everybody knows this. Suddenly it seems that there are well over 11 million of these highly distinctive people in Britain. Where were they all hiding?
    http://www.thetimes.co.uk/tto/opinion/article4435190.ece
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    Jonathan said:


    Would be funny if it showed a 33-33 Lab Con Tie.

    EICIPM !
  • agingjbagingjb Posts: 76
    edited May 2015
    Mere test. And advice to any aspiring new, different, or regrouping voice in English politics - read Rawls.
  • MillsyMillsy Posts: 900
    felix said:

    I think the future of UKIP is more interesting - a leader like Nuttall could seriously threaten Labour in the north. More power to their elbow. :)

    Yes, Ukip have an impressive range of second place finishes, and it looks like half of them are behind Labour
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    This is the confession of a political journalist. I get paid to know about politics, to explain politics and yes, to predict politics. On this general election, I failed. I got it wrong. I didn’t see this result coming.
    @TelePolitics: Confessions of a political journalist http://t.co/4DTFRcNtDT
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,950
    edited May 2015
    Sandpit said:

    nichomar said:

    The Lib Dems should avoid a leader election if at all possible, the MPs should be able to ensure one nomination only, why have the expense and the humiliation of appearing split . Nice quiet transfer of leader and then on to the real business of how we rebuild

    It turned out to be a mini van rather than the proverbial taxi needed for the LD MPs, but yes you would think that they could choose one among themselves to be in charge while they regroup and decide what they stand for as a party.
    Alternatively, Farron can become leader - and the other 7 join the Tory Party. That would be best all round....
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    Millsy said:

    I still can't believe how poorly Labour did especially considering the Lib Dem collapse. Use the excellent BBC website to search constituencies across the country, you will find many marginals where Labour have basically stood still and most of the movement is from the Lib Dems to Ukip and, to a lesser extent, to the Tories depending on the seat.

    I am an Orange booker rather than a Fallonite, but even so I will be voting for Fallon as LD Leader.

    Fallon was always arms length from the coalition so can win back a lot of those former LD voters gone to kippers and Tories. His northern roots and social conservatism make him ideal for this, and he is a good tub thumper to rouse the rather battered troops. Despite being a strong Christian he voted for repeal of blasphemy laws.

    No way will the LDs merge with Labour; though I think there is some merit in a joint ticket in Scotland with the Conservatives in the style of the National Liberals for Westminster elections.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    felix said:

    I think the future of UKIP is more interesting - a leader like Nuttall could seriously threaten Labour in the north. More power to their elbow. :)

    There are whole swathes of the north where UKIP are in second place to Labour - I think Nuttall could do serious damage.....
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,706
    Interesting to see how the foreign press are covering the result. The possible EU exit is on the front page in Germany (faz), France (le monde), Italy (CdS) and US (WPost).
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    Jonathan said:

    Interesting to see how the foreign press are covering the result. The possible EU exit is on the front page in Germany (faz), France (le monde), Italy (CdS) and US (WPost).

    Squeaky bum time in Brussels...

    How about some concessions and a new treaty then? No, wait, there is NO WAY that could ever happen, right?
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 55,031
    Scott_P said:

    As a friend's mum said, “I’m very happy the country is apparently more intelligent than social media makes it seem.”
    Quite. The bleating that anyone not supporting unlimited immigration and bread & circuses for all was somehow evil incarnate probably helped swing a few votes at the end - but not they way they wanted them to swing.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,706

    Millsy said:

    I still can't believe how poorly Labour did especially considering the Lib Dem collapse. Use the excellent BBC website to search constituencies across the country, you will find many marginals where Labour have basically stood still and most of the movement is from the Lib Dems to Ukip and, to a lesser extent, to the Tories depending on the seat.

    I am an Orange booker rather than a Fallonite, but even so I will be voting for Fallon as LD Leader.

    Fallon was always arms length from the coalition so can win back a lot of those former LD voters gone to kippers and Tories. His northern roots and social conservatism make him ideal for this, and he is a good tub thumper to rouse the rather battered troops. Despite being a strong Christian he voted for repeal of blasphemy laws.

    No way will the LDs merge with Labour; though I think there is some merit in a joint ticket in Scotland with the Conservatives in the style of the National Liberals for Westminster elections.
    The LDs and Labour may not need to merge, but they certainly need to remember that bashing seven bells out of each other only work in the Tories favour. Unless something radical happens; the LDs have the power to reach the parts of the country Labour can't and vice versa.
  • SquareRootSquareRoot Posts: 7,095
    Cant say I have read everything on here but I cant say I have seen any sign of the BJESUS guy, Compouter/tim.. nor IOS/ Labour ground war , since the GE..

    Funny that, note to self ignore all that bullshine in future, its not worth the kdp's
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    Millsy said:

    felix said:

    I think the future of UKIP is more interesting - a leader like Nuttall could seriously threaten Labour in the north. More power to their elbow. :)

    Yes, Ukip have an impressive range of second place finishes, and it looks like half of them are behind Labour
    http://ichef.bbci.co.uk/live-experience/cps/400/amz/vivo/live/images/2015/5/8/04009515-9e5d-4acf-9698-a8cf2e655694.jpg

    Where's tim to point out that UKIP are only a threat to the Tories?
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,044

    Cant say I have read everything on here but I cant say I have seen any sign of the BJESUS guy, Compouter/tim.. nor IOS/ Labour ground war , since the GE..

    Funny that, note to self ignore all that bullshine in future, its not worth the kdp's

    BJO and compouter have been around, to their credit. IOS (who was most outspoken about Labour's awesome ground game), has not :D
  • logical_songlogical_song Posts: 9,932

    Sandpit said:

    nichomar said:

    The Lib Dems should avoid a leader election if at all possible, the MPs should be able to ensure one nomination only, why have the expense and the humiliation of appearing split . Nice quiet transfer of leader and then on to the real business of how we rebuild

    It turned out to be a mini van rather than the proverbial taxi needed for the LD MPs, but yes you would think that they could choose one among themselves to be in charge while they regroup and decide what they stand for as a party.
    Alternatively, Farron can become leader - and the other 7 join the Tory Party. That would be best all round....
    Might be best for UKIP (whose MP(s) can now fit on a bicycle instead of a tandem), I suppose.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 55,031
    Scott_P said:

    Jonathan said:

    Interesting to see how the foreign press are covering the result. The possible EU exit is on the front page in Germany (faz), France (le monde), Italy (CdS) and US (WPost).

    Squeaky bum time in Brussels...

    How about some concessions and a new treaty then? No, wait, there is NO WAY that could ever happen, right?
    They were really hoping for a LAB-SNP pact committed to furthering the aims of European integration.

    They've got to deal with it now that there's serious support for the idea of leaving if the EU cannot be reshaped in some regards. It won't need a massive amount of concession to keep us in but the direction of travel is important, as is the idea that certain subjects are off limits - such as welfare and health for non-working immigrants and the Human Rights laws that seem to care more about how we treat criminals than how we treat their victims.
  • Beverley_CBeverley_C Posts: 6,256
    Pulpstar said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Tim Farron into 1.29/1.36 for the Lib Dem leadership/

    Another tip at evens by @Tissue_Price

    Farron? He does not impress me much. I know that the LibDems have little to work with but surely they can do better than him?
    Is he too short or is he an actual shoo in though.

    I have no idea whst height he is. Size is not important :)
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,516
    Jonathan said:

    Millsy said:

    I still can't believe how poorly Labour did especially considering the Lib Dem collapse. Use the excellent BBC website to search constituencies across the country, you will find many marginals where Labour have basically stood still and most of the movement is from the Lib Dems to Ukip and, to a lesser extent, to the Tories depending on the seat.

    I am an Orange booker rather than a Fallonite, but even so I will be voting for Fallon as LD Leader.

    Fallon was always arms length from the coalition so can win back a lot of those former LD voters gone to kippers and Tories. His northern roots and social conservatism make him ideal for this, and he is a good tub thumper to rouse the rather battered troops. Despite being a strong Christian he voted for repeal of blasphemy laws.

    No way will the LDs merge with Labour; though I think there is some merit in a joint ticket in Scotland with the Conservatives in the style of the National Liberals for Westminster elections.
    The LDs and Labour may not need to merge, but they certainly need to remember that bashing seven bells out of each other only work in the Tories favour. Unless something radical happens; the LDs have the power to reach the parts of the country Labour can't and vice versa.
    Shame SLAB couldn't remember bashing the hell out of the Tories only helps the SNP.

  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    The Staggers is not underestimating the UKIP threat to Labour:

    Yet the abrasive Liverpodlian Paul Nuttall is the Ukipper who might feel most vindicated tonight. Nuttall, deputy leader to Farage, was the leading architect of Ukip’s strategy to take on Labour in its northern heartlands; his embrace of pavement politics in the Oldham East and Saddleworth evolved into the model for Ukip in by-elections and then this general election

    http://www.newstatesman.com/politics/2015/05/say-it-again-labour-should-beware-ukip

  • SquareRootSquareRoot Posts: 7,095
    RobD said:

    Cant say I have read everything on here but I cant say I have seen any sign of the BJESUS guy, Compouter/tim.. nor IOS/ Labour ground war , since the GE..

    Funny that, note to self ignore all that bullshine in future, its not worth the kdp's

    BJO and compouter have been around, to their credit. IOS (who was most outspoken about Labour's awesome ground game), has not :D
    LOL

    I think Labour's awesome "ground game" ran into the ground..
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    The Conservative campaign worked well. The proof of the pudding was in the eating with Shapps, Cameron, Messina and Crosby.

    The professionalism of what MM describes below is really quite impressive for the 40/40 strategy. Crosby worked out what the dealbreakers were for swing voters and split them away from LD, UKIP and Lab.

    Tony Blair one said "the Labour party will only have really changed when it has learnt to love Peter Mandleson". There is a lot of truth in this. Despite the enmity with Brown he masterminded the 2010 campaign and turned a defeat into a hung parliament. Labour needs to recover that sense of hunger to win.

    UKIP have improved in their campaigning but have a long way to go. Farage still seems to think a campaign looks rather like a pub crawl. UKIP were strongest in rural Southern England and East Anglia and Northern post industrial cities, yet didn't seem to recognise that themselves. Candidate selection and vetting continue to be major problems. Both Great Grimsby and Boston had ridiculous candidates in winnable seats and the fiasco with Bird and Kerry Smith et al spoke volumes about internal feuding.

  • SquareRootSquareRoot Posts: 7,095

    Millsy said:

    felix said:

    I think the future of UKIP is more interesting - a leader like Nuttall could seriously threaten Labour in the north. More power to their elbow. :)

    Yes, Ukip have an impressive range of second place finishes, and it looks like half of them are behind Labour
    http://ichef.bbci.co.uk/live-experience/cps/400/amz/vivo/live/images/2015/5/8/04009515-9e5d-4acf-9698-a8cf2e655694.jpg

    Where's tim to point out that UKIP are only a threat to the Tories?
    Tim is busy libelling Socrates.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,706

    The Staggers is not underestimating the UKIP threat to Labour:

    Yet the abrasive Liverpodlian Paul Nuttall is the Ukipper who might feel most vindicated tonight. Nuttall, deputy leader to Farage, was the leading architect of Ukip’s strategy to take on Labour in its northern heartlands; his embrace of pavement politics in the Oldham East and Saddleworth evolved into the model for Ukip in by-elections and then this general election

    http://www.newstatesman.com/politics/2015/05/say-it-again-labour-should-beware-ukip

    Might be a strategy to fight the last war (ie Thursday) not the next. UKIP need to think about the winning the EU referendum or at worst (like the SNP) the aftermath.
  • Innocent_AbroadInnocent_Abroad Posts: 3,294
    There will surely be another referendum on Scottish independence, as you say, and this time it will surely vote "yes" - Cameron will secure his niche in history as the last PM of the UK. One thing he might do, to pave the way for his English (& Welsh, or maybe not) is to arrange for Northern Ireland to become a Scottish-Irish condominium. It's got nothing to do with England.

    As to English regionalism, it's not even in the oven yet, let alone cooked. The only part of England that may want to go it alone is London (there'll surely be a "London First" candidate in the Mayoralty contest next year) and if they have a plausible left-of-centre platform they could even split the vote and let another Tory in!
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 55,031

    felix said:

    I think the future of UKIP is more interesting - a leader like Nuttall could seriously threaten Labour in the north. More power to their elbow. :)

    There are whole swathes of the north where UKIP are in second place to Labour - I think Nuttall could do serious damage.....
    UKIP have become the party of the working man in many areas, as Labour have moved to be the party of the PC metropolitan elite and segregated 'community' meetings. If Labour are not careful with their choice of leader then this trend could accelerate and see UKIP make gains next time out.

    I wonder where all this leaves Carswell - he'll surely not be too happy that his party couldn't break through, I'd expect him to behave in the Commons as a Tory in all but name. Cameron must be happy to have one of what could be the awkward squad sitting opposite him rather than behind though!
  • Innocent_AbroadInnocent_Abroad Posts: 3,294

    The Conservative campaign worked well. The proof of the pudding was in the eating with Shapps, Cameron, Messina and Crosby.

    The professionalism of what MM describes below is really quite impressive for the 40/40 strategy. Crosby worked out what the dealbreakers were for swing voters and split them away from LD, UKIP and Lab.

    Tony Blair one said "the Labour party will only have really changed when it has learnt to love Peter Mandleson". There is a lot of truth in this. Despite the enmity with Brown he masterminded the 2010 campaign and turned a defeat into a hung parliament. Labour needs to recover that sense of hunger to win.

    UKIP have improved in their campaigning but have a long way to go. Farage still seems to think a campaign looks rather like a pub crawl. UKIP were strongest in rural Southern England and East Anglia and Northern post industrial cities, yet didn't seem to recognise that themselves. Candidate selection and vetting continue to be major problems. Both Great Grimsby and Boston had ridiculous candidates in winnable seats and the fiasco with Bird and Kerry Smith et al spoke volumes about internal feuding.

    When Labour learns to love its centrists most of its activists will quit to join the Greens. That is the dilemma for its next leader and why it may not even come second in 2020.

  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,516

    There will surely be another referendum on Scottish independence, as you say, and this time it will surely vote "yes" - Cameron will secure his niche in history as the last PM of the UK. One thing he might do, to pave the way for his English (& Welsh, or maybe not) is to arrange for Northern Ireland to become a Scottish-Irish condominium. It's got nothing to do with England.

    As to English regionalism, it's not even in the oven yet, let alone cooked. The only part of England that may want to go it alone is London (there'll surely be a "London First" candidate in the Mayoralty contest next year) and if they have a plausible left-of-centre platform they could even split the vote and let another Tory in!

    the inevitable triumph of nats is about as inevitable as the inevitable triumph of communism

    in both cases the economic numbers don't stack up.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    10 delusions about the Labour defeat to watch out for
    As Labour tries to explain its defeat, look out for the following untruths


    http://www.newstatesman.com/politics/2015/05/10-delusions-about-labour-defeat-watch-out
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    RobD said:

    Cant say I have read everything on here but I cant say I have seen any sign of the BJESUS guy, Compouter/tim.. nor IOS/ Labour ground war , since the GE..

    Funny that, note to self ignore all that bullshine in future, its not worth the kdp's

    BJO and compouter have been around, to their credit. IOS (who was most outspoken about Labour's awesome ground game), has not :D
    BJO is at a family function without wifi booked by mrs Owls as I recall. I expect him back.
    Jonathan said:

    Millsy said:

    I still can't believe how poorly Labour did especially considering the Lib Dem collapse. Use the excellent BBC website to search constituencies across the country, you will find many marginals where Labour have basically stood still and most of the movement is from the Lib Dems to Ukip and, to a lesser extent, to the Tories depending on the seat.

    I am an Orange booker rather than a Fallonite, but even so I will be voting for Fallon as LD Leader.

    Fallon was always arms length from the coalition so can win back a lot of those former LD voters gone to kippers and Tories. His northern roots and social conservatism make him ideal for this, and he is a good tub thumper to rouse the rather battered troops. Despite being a strong Christian he voted for repeal of blasphemy laws.

    No way will the LDs merge with Labour; though I think there is some merit in a joint ticket in Scotland with the Conservatives in the style of the National Liberals for Westminster elections.
    The LDs and Labour may not need to merge, but they certainly need to remember that bashing seven bells out of each other only work in the Tories favour. Unless something radical happens; the LDs have the power to reach the parts of the country Labour can't and vice versa.
    The LDs doubled their seats in 97, but this was rather overshadowed by the near doubling of Labour seats. In practice there was a tacit electoral pact going on in many areas, part of the reason that so many LD voters were unhappy with the LD/Con coalition.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 54,032
    The party with the major problem in Scotland is Labour who really suffered under the SNP branch office taunts and the way that Johann Lamont was treated. They have to rebuild from scratch and try to find a reason to exist when a centre left SNP has already taken over nearly all of their territory both physical and political.

    What does Scottish Labour believe in (other than stopping the tories which is no longer sufficient)? Is it different from what English Labour believes? I think as long as Labour was run by a north London intellectual it probably was but that is no longer the case. Would Scotland have such problems with an Andy Burnham led Labour party? I think not. A Chuka Umunna led party might be more difficult.

    Under Salmond there was plenty of room to the left of the SNP for Labour. Under Sturgeon it is so much more difficult. The absurdity was demonstrated by Murphy's ridiculous "1000 extra nurses" pledge. Whatever the SNP promised he would deliver more.

    We have a situation where our two largest parties in Scotland think public spending is the answer to all problems, that the job of the state is to regulate and control any private sector that remains into the ground and that those who are skilful and able enough to survive such hostility are simply a resource to be plucked to feed the voracious state. It seems inconsistent with such a mindset that there should be two parties like that.

    For the tories I think having an independent party would be a waste of time. For the Lib Dems this election may well prove to be an extinction event. I really don't see them playing a major role in Scottish politics again for a very long time, if ever. To personalise again a Ruth Davidson led Tory party gives them very little room to operate in. The above mindset also surely creates some opportunities. The 2016 election will be interesting.
  • logical_songlogical_song Posts: 9,932
    Is there a market on whether Farage will stand again as leader of UKIP?
    It looks pretty clear that his 'resignation' was insincere and only done because he'd said he would. Unlike Miliband and Clegg, whose resignations were real, I think it's pretty near 100% certain that Farage will just take the summer off.
    http://www.quotationspage.com/quote/481.html
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,516

    10 delusions about the Labour defeat to watch out for
    As Labour tries to explain its defeat, look out for the following untruths


    http://www.newstatesman.com/politics/2015/05/10-delusions-about-labour-defeat-watch-out

    can we have 10 delusions about the Tory victory for balance ?
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,706
    edited May 2015

    The LDs doubled their seats in 97, but this was rather overshadowed by the near doubling of Labour seats. In practice there was a tacit electoral pact going on in many areas, part of the reason that so many LD voters were unhappy with the LD/Con coalition.

    When the LDs do well, Labour does well. When Labour does well, the LDs do well.

    It worth remembering that as both parties scrabble around in the ruins. If they don't, 2020 could easily be worse than 2015.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 23,937

    10 delusions about the Labour defeat to watch out for
    As Labour tries to explain its defeat, look out for the following untruths


    http://www.newstatesman.com/politics/2015/05/10-delusions-about-labour-defeat-watch-out

    can we have 10 delusions about the Tory victory for balance ?
    Tis the New Statesman. They don't do balance (:-D
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 55,031

    10 delusions about the Labour defeat to watch out for
    As Labour tries to explain its defeat, look out for the following untruths


    http://www.newstatesman.com/politics/2015/05/10-delusions-about-labour-defeat-watch-out

    That's funny! The left-wing press will be something to behold in the coming days and weeks, as they try and work out what the hell just happened!

    One thing missing from all their analysis will be that Labour lost because they have forgotten their roots as the party of the working man and become too dominated by the metropolitan elite - the elite that includes all the journalists and their total lack of self-awareness!
  • Jonathan said:

    Millsy said:

    I still can't believe how poorly Labour did especially considering the Lib Dem collapse. Use the excellent BBC website to search constituencies across the country, you will find many marginals where Labour have basically stood still and most of the movement is from the Lib Dems to Ukip and, to a lesser extent, to the Tories depending on the seat.

    I am an Orange booker rather than a Fallonite, but even so I will be voting for Fallon as LD Leader.

    Fallon was always arms length from the coalition so can win back a lot of those former LD voters gone to kippers and Tories. His northern roots and social conservatism make him ideal for this, and he is a good tub thumper to rouse the rather battered troops. Despite being a strong Christian he voted for repeal of blasphemy laws.

    No way will the LDs merge with Labour; though I think there is some merit in a joint ticket in Scotland with the Conservatives in the style of the National Liberals for Westminster elections.
    The LDs and Labour may not need to merge, but they certainly need to remember that bashing seven bells out of each other only work in the Tories favour. Unless something radical happens; the LDs have the power to reach the parts of the country Labour can't and vice versa.
    Shame SLAB couldn't remember bashing the hell out of the Tories only helps the SNP.

    Maybe it really started the re-launch of Scottish nationalism when Scots Labour, Scots Lib Dems joined with the SNP against the "Westminster Govt" of John Major. This anti-UK alliance led us to where we are today. Independence for Scotland is inevitable. Just a matter of time now, after all is said, the Scottish anthem is "to be a nation again". Bedding that into the minds of each generation as a goal, will ensure that the goal is met.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,516
    DavidL said:

    The party with the major problem in Scotland is Labour who really suffered under the SNP branch office taunts and the way that Johann Lamont was treated. They have to rebuild from scratch and try to find a reason to exist when a centre left SNP has already taken over nearly all of their territory both physical and political.

    What does Scottish Labour believe in (other than stopping the tories which is no longer sufficient)? Is it different from what English Labour believes? I think as long as Labour was run by a north London intellectual it probably was but that is no longer the case. Would Scotland have such problems with an Andy Burnham led Labour party? I think not. A Chuka Umunna led party might be more difficult.

    Under Salmond there was plenty of room to the left of the SNP for Labour. Under Sturgeon it is so much more difficult. The absurdity was demonstrated by Murphy's ridiculous "1000 extra nurses" pledge. Whatever the SNP promised he would deliver more.

    We have a situation where our two largest parties in Scotland think public spending is the answer to all problems, that the job of the state is to regulate and control any private sector that remains into the ground and that those who are skilful and able enough to survive such hostility are simply a resource to be plucked to feed the voracious state. It seems inconsistent with such a mindset that there should be two parties like that.

    For the tories I think having an independent party would be a waste of time. For the Lib Dems this election may well prove to be an extinction event. I really don't see them playing a major role in Scottish politics again for a very long time, if ever. To personalise again a Ruth Davidson led Tory party gives them very little room to operate in. The above mindset also surely creates some opportunities. The 2016 election will be interesting.

    The difficulty we will have on PB for the next few months is that it is dominated by the victors Tories and Nats both of whom will re-write history as is their privilege. More interesting is when the losers drift back on and tell us how it looks from their side and what comes next.

    Since you're in the odd position of being a winner\loser ( Tory but Scotland ) I'd be interested in how you see the position in Scotland develop for the blues. Is it hunker down and wait for the tide to turn against the Nats when the hubris wears off or is there something now the Tories should be doing ?

    For me the big disappointment of the night was not getting Berwickshire, 2 seats and bigger than SLAB would have been tremendous.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 23,937
    Interesting that the only Lab hold in Scotland was in the seat where the SNP candidate was that "Quisling" cybertroll Neil Hay individual, who was exposed ten days ago for running an anonymous Twitter abuse account while working for an MSP and running part of the Edinburgh Yes referendum campaign.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 54,032
    Scott_P said:

    As a friend's mum said, “I’m very happy the country is apparently more intelligent than social media makes it seem.”
    http://www.independent.co.uk/voices/comment/im-a-proud-tory-but-with-the-left-this-belligerent-and-selfrighteous-is-it-any-wonder-that-so-many-of-us-are-shy-10236544.html

    Genuine LOL on reading this.
  • richardDoddrichardDodd Posts: 5,472
    A simply stunning victory..
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 55,031
    edited May 2015

    Is there a market on whether Farage will stand again as leader of UKIP?
    It looks pretty clear that his 'resignation' was insincere and only done because he'd said he would. Unlike Miliband and Clegg, whose resignations were real, I think it's pretty near 100% certain that Farage will just take the summer off.
    http://www.quotationspage.com/quote/481.html

    It did sound rather like that he just wanted a couple of months off to get his breath back.

    If UKIP have any sense they'll sit on their hands for a bit and see what Labour do in their own leadership election.

    There's a huge opportunity to convert the Northern working-class second places into wins if Labour stay with the metropolitans, say under Unumma as leader - if UKIP themselves then choose a Nuttall rather than a Farage.

    Whereas if Labour go working class northerner with say Andy Burnham or Dan Jarvis, then a Farage type will be what's best for them in the coming years.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,516

    Jonathan said:

    Millsy said:

    I still can't believe how poorly Labour did especially considering the Lib Dem collapse. Use the excellent BBC website to search constituencies across the country, you will find many marginals where Labour have basically stood still and most of the movement is from the Lib Dems to Ukip and, to a lesser extent, to the Tories depending on the seat.

    I am an Orange booker rather than a Fallonite, but even so I will be voting for Fallon as LD Leader.

    Fallon was always arms length from the coalition so can win back a lot of those former LD voters gone to kippers and Tories. His northern roots and social conservatism make him ideal for this, and he is a good tub thumper to rouse the rather battered troops. Despite being a strong Christian he voted for repeal of blasphemy laws.

    No way will the LDs merge with Labour; though I think there is some merit in a joint ticket in Scotland with the Conservatives in the style of the National Liberals for Westminster elections.
    The LDs and Labour may not need to merge, but they certainly need to remember that bashing seven bells out of each other only work in the Tories favour. Unless something radical happens; the LDs have the power to reach the parts of the country Labour can't and vice versa.
    Shame SLAB couldn't remember bashing the hell out of the Tories only helps the SNP.

    Maybe it really started the re-launch of Scottish nationalism when Scots Labour, Scots Lib Dems joined with the SNP against the "Westminster Govt" of John Major. This anti-UK alliance led us to where we are today. Independence for Scotland is inevitable. Just a matter of time now, after all is said, the Scottish anthem is "to be a nation again". Bedding that into the minds of each generation as a goal, will ensure that the goal is met.
    Federalism is inevitable Independence isn't.
  • DavidL "For the Lib Dems this election may well prove to be an extinction event. I really don't see them playing a major role in Scottish politics again for a very long time, if ever."
    Agreed. There is no room for another left of centre party in Scotland.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,718

    Jonathan said:

    Millsy said:

    I still can't believe how poorly Labour did especially considering the Lib Dem collapse. Use the excellent BBC website to search constituencies across the country, you will find many marginals where Labour have basically stood still and most of the movement is from the Lib Dems to Ukip and, to a lesser extent, to the Tories depending on the seat.

    I am an Orange booker rather than a Fallonite, but even so I will be voting for Fallon as LD Leader.

    Fallon was always arms length from the coalition so can win back a lot of those former LD voters gone to kippers and Tories. His northern roots and social conservatism make him ideal for this, and he is a good tub thumper to rouse the rather battered troops. Despite being a strong Christian he voted for repeal of blasphemy laws.

    No way will the LDs merge with Labour; though I think there is some merit in a joint ticket in Scotland with the Conservatives in the style of the National Liberals for Westminster elections.
    The LDs and Labour may not need to merge, but they certainly need to remember that bashing seven bells out of each other only work in the Tories favour. Unless something radical happens; the LDs have the power to reach the parts of the country Labour can't and vice versa.
    Shame SLAB couldn't remember bashing the hell out of the Tories only helps the SNP.

    Maybe it really started the re-launch of Scottish nationalism when Scots Labour, Scots Lib Dems joined with the SNP against the "Westminster Govt" of John Major. This anti-UK alliance led us to where we are today. Independence for Scotland is inevitable. Just a matter of time now, after all is said, the Scottish anthem is "to be a nation again". Bedding that into the minds of each generation as a goal, will ensure that the goal is met.
    Isn’t “A nation once again” the RoI anthem?
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    Jonathan said:

    The Staggers is not underestimating the UKIP threat to Labour:

    Yet the abrasive Liverpodlian Paul Nuttall is the Ukipper who might feel most vindicated tonight. Nuttall, deputy leader to Farage, was the leading architect of Ukip’s strategy to take on Labour in its northern heartlands; his embrace of pavement politics in the Oldham East and Saddleworth evolved into the model for Ukip in by-elections and then this general election

    http://www.newstatesman.com/politics/2015/05/say-it-again-labour-should-beware-ukip

    Might be a strategy to fight the last war (ie Thursday) not the next. UKIP need to think about the winning the EU referendum or at worst (like the SNP) the aftermath.
    I think i) the EU referendum will vote to stay in and ii) like the SNP after 'losing' UKIP may well get a bounce - there is a lot more (in fact, I think its only a minor factor) to UKIP support than wanting to get out of the EU - so even with a loss, UKIP are here to stay, unless Labour can find a way of reconnecting with their former supporters.....which from the fastness of London, looks unlikely....
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,415
    Thought for the day:

    If the election had been under a true PR system the seat totals would be as follows (So far as I can work them out !)

    Gov't:

    Con 241
    UKIP 83

    Opposition benches:

    Labour 199
    Lib Dem 52
    SNP 31
    Green 25
    DUP 4
    Plaid 4
    UUP 3
    SDLP 2
    Lady Hermon 1

    Abstain:
    SF 4

    Speaker 1

    Con-UKIP coalition, tacit support from DUP, UUP.
  • PongPong Posts: 4,693

    Is there a market on whether Farage will stand again as leader of UKIP?
    It looks pretty clear that his 'resignation' was insincere and only done because he'd said he would. Unlike Miliband and Clegg, whose resignations were real, I think it's pretty near 100% certain that Farage will just take the summer off.
    http://www.quotationspage.com/quote/481.html

    Yep. Over on betfair, the hot favourite to succeed Nigel Farage is....

    Nigel Farage.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216

    10 delusions about the Labour defeat to watch out for
    As Labour tries to explain its defeat, look out for the following untruths


    http://www.newstatesman.com/politics/2015/05/10-delusions-about-labour-defeat-watch-out

    can we have 10 delusions about the Tory victory for balance ?
    I'm sure you don't need to limit yourself to 10.......

    Let me get you started.

    1. George Osborne is a strategic genius......
  • TCPoliticalBettingTCPoliticalBetting Posts: 10,819
    edited May 2015

    Jonathan said:

    Millsy said:

    I still can't believe how poorly Labour did especially considering the Lib Dem collapse. Use the excellent BBC website to search constituencies across the country, you will find many marginals where Labour have basically stood still and most of the movement is from the Lib Dems to Ukip and, to a lesser extent, to the Tories depending on the seat.

    I am an Orange booker rather than a Fallonite, but even so I will be voting for Fallon as LD Leader.

    Fallon was always arms length from the coalition so can win back a lot of those former LD voters gone to kippers and Tories. His northern roots and social conservatism make him ideal for this, and he is a good tub thumper to rouse the rather battered troops. Despite being a strong Christian he voted for repeal of blasphemy laws.

    No way will the LDs merge with Labour; though I think there is some merit in a joint ticket in Scotland with the Conservatives in the style of the National Liberals for Westminster elections.
    The LDs and Labour may not need to merge, but they certainly need to remember that bashing seven bells out of each other only work in the Tories favour. Unless something radical happens; the LDs have the power to reach the parts of the country Labour can't and vice versa.
    Shame SLAB couldn't remember bashing the hell out of the Tories only helps the SNP.

    Maybe it really started the re-launch of Scottish nationalism when Scots Labour, Scots Lib Dems joined with the SNP against the "Westminster Govt" of John Major. This anti-UK alliance led us to where we are today. Independence for Scotland is inevitable. Just a matter of time now, after all is said, the Scottish anthem is "to be a nation again". Bedding that into the minds of each generation as a goal, will ensure that the goal is met.
    Isn’t “A nation once again” the RoI anthem?
    I slightly misquoted the section, in the Flower of Scotland it is
    "But we can still rise now,
    And be the nation again,"

    Adopted for more and more sports events its theme of aiming to be a nation has IMHO become the goal of a growing % of the population.
    http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/scotland/8449939.stm
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,516

    Jonathan said:

    Millsy said:

    I still can't believe how poorly Labour did especially considering the Lib Dem collapse. Use the excellent BBC website to search constituencies across the country, you will find many marginals where Labour have basically stood still and most of the movement is from the Lib Dems to Ukip and, to a lesser extent, to the Tories depending on the seat.

    I am an Orange booker rather than a Fallonite, but even so I will be voting for Fallon as LD Leader.

    Fallon was always arms length from the coalition so can win back a lot of those former LD voters gone to kippers and Tories. His northern roots and social conservatism make him ideal for this, and he is a good tub thumper to rouse the rather battered troops. Despite being a strong Christian he voted for repeal of blasphemy laws.

    No way will the LDs merge with Labour; though I think there is some merit in a joint ticket in Scotland with the Conservatives in the style of the National Liberals for Westminster elections.
    The LDs and Labour may not need to merge, but they certainly need to remember that bashing seven bells out of each other only work in the Tories favour. Unless something radical happens; the LDs have the power to reach the parts of the country Labour can't and vice versa.
    Shame SLAB couldn't remember bashing the hell out of the Tories only helps the SNP.

    Maybe it really started the re-launch of Scottish nationalism when Scots Labour, Scots Lib Dems joined with the SNP against the "Westminster Govt" of John Major. This anti-UK alliance led us to where we are today. Independence for Scotland is inevitable. Just a matter of time now, after all is said, the Scottish anthem is "to be a nation again". Bedding that into the minds of each generation as a goal, will ensure that the goal is met.
    Isn’t “A nation once again” the RoI anthem?
    No that's Amhrán na bhFiann or A Soldiers Song
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    Fascinating stuff
    Content analysis on our panelists’ unprompted “daily diaries”, sent in via their mobile apps, shows that the economy was mentioned four times as often as the next nearest policy area, the NHS. This turned out to be critical. Given the backdrop of uncertainty, our voters relied on a small number of touchstones. In Dewsbury, when asked what the Conservatives’ key policy was, they chorused “improving the economy” without skipping a beat. The same question about Labour was initially met with silence.

    Another touchstones was the relative competency of the leaders. Here, while Miliband surprised with his feisty campaigning, Cameron’s consistency won through, despite panelists’ cynicism about politicians and politics.

    Many of our panelists recorded their response to the result on Friday morning. One commented: “I didn’t want a Tory government but I suppose the last five years haven’t been that bad,” and another: “I voted Labour, so I’m a little bit disappointed but I’m also a little bit relieved.”
    http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2015/may/09/battleground-britain-gauging-the-nations-post-election-mood

    IT'S THE ECONOMY, STOOPID !

    This is why the next Labour leader must NOT be any member of Gordo's cabinet (Sorry Andy), and their very first statement as leader must be "Yes, we spent way too much money"

    Have Labour fixed the rules so the sensible choice for leader can't be undone by Len McLuskey?

    This post sponsored by ToriesForBurnham™ and brought to you by NewsSense™ Inc.
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548

    The Conservative campaign worked well. The proof of the pudding was in the eating with Shapps, Cameron, Messina and Crosby.

    The professionalism of what MM describes below is really quite impressive for the 40/40 strategy. Crosby worked out what the dealbreakers were for swing voters and split them away from LD, UKIP and Lab.

    Tony Blair one said "the Labour party will only have really changed when it has learnt to love Peter Mandleson". There is a lot of truth in this. Despite the enmity with Brown he masterminded the 2010 campaign and turned a defeat into a hung parliament. Labour needs to recover that sense of hunger to win.

    UKIP have improved in their campaigning but have a long way to go. Farage still seems to think a campaign looks rather like a pub crawl. UKIP were strongest in rural Southern England and East Anglia and Northern post industrial cities, yet didn't seem to recognise that themselves. Candidate selection and vetting continue to be major problems. Both Great Grimsby and Boston had ridiculous candidates in winnable seats and the fiasco with Bird and Kerry Smith et al spoke volumes about internal feuding.

    When Labour learns to love its centrists most of its activists will quit to join the Greens. That is the dilemma for its next leader and why it may not even come second in 2020.

    Is it the number of activists or their quality that matters?

    Being doorstepped by DavidL, NickP or isam could be a pleasant experience that changed my opinion. Being harangued by Victoria Ayling or Owen Jones on the doorstep could easily push my opinion the other way.

    For Lab I did some canvassing in 1997 in Loughborough and Leics NW (both marginal seats at the time) but some of the people who were canvassing with me were probably doing the party harm! I remember one Millie Tant lookalike festooned with CND badges not letting voters have a say herself. Wellington supposedly said of his troops once: "I don't know if they frighten the enemy, but by God they terrify me"
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,516
    Scott_P said:

    Fascinating stuff

    Content analysis on our panelists’ unprompted “daily diaries”, sent in via their mobile apps, shows that the economy was mentioned four times as often as the next nearest policy area, the NHS. This turned out to be critical. Given the backdrop of uncertainty, our voters relied on a small number of touchstones. In Dewsbury, when asked what the Conservatives’ key policy was, they chorused “improving the economy” without skipping a beat. The same question about Labour was initially met with silence.

    Another touchstones was the relative competency of the leaders. Here, while Miliband surprised with his feisty campaigning, Cameron’s consistency won through, despite panelists’ cynicism about politicians and politics.

    Many of our panelists recorded their response to the result on Friday morning. One commented: “I didn’t want a Tory government but I suppose the last five years haven’t been that bad,” and another: “I voted Labour, so I’m a little bit disappointed but I’m also a little bit relieved.”
    http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2015/may/09/battleground-britain-gauging-the-nations-post-election-mood

    IT'S THE ECONOMY, STOOPID !

    This is why the next Labour leader must NOT be any member of Gordo's cabinet (Sorry Andy), and their very first statement as leader must be "Yes, we spent way too much money"

    Have Labour fixed the rules so the sensible choice for leader can't be undone by Len McLuskey?

    This post sponsored by ToriesForBurnham™ and brought to you by NewsSense™ Inc.

    Please let it be Burnham
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216

    DavidL said:

    The party with the major problem in Scotland is Labour who really suffered under the SNP branch office taunts and the way that Johann Lamont was treated. They have to rebuild from scratch and try to find a reason to exist when a centre left SNP has already taken over nearly all of their territory both physical and political.

    What does Scottish Labour believe in (other than stopping the tories which is no longer sufficient)? Is it different from what English Labour believes? I think as long as Labour was run by a north London intellectual it probably was but that is no longer the case. Would Scotland have such problems with an Andy Burnham led Labour party? I think not. A Chuka Umunna led party might be more difficult.

    Under Salmond there was plenty of room to the left of the SNP for Labour. Under Sturgeon it is so much more difficult. The absurdity was demonstrated by Murphy's ridiculous "1000 extra nurses" pledge. Whatever the SNP promised he would deliver more.

    We have a situation where our two largest parties in Scotland think public spending is the answer to all problems, that the job of the state is to regulate and control any private sector that remains into the ground and that those who are skilful and able enough to survive such hostility are simply a resource to be plucked to feed the voracious state. It seems inconsistent with such a mindset that there should be two parties like that.

    For the tories I think having an independent party would be a waste of time. For the Lib Dems this election may well prove to be an extinction event. I really don't see them playing a major role in Scottish politics again for a very long time, if ever. To personalise again a Ruth Davidson led Tory party gives them very little room to operate in. The above mindset also surely creates some opportunities. The 2016 election will be interesting.

    For me the big disappointment of the night was not getting Berwickshire, 2 seats and bigger than SLAB would have been tremendous.
    Now you're being greedy......

    A majority, Vince Cable, Ed Balls, three party leader out and Berwickshire?.....it was only 328 votes out....but I think the gods decided we were having enough fun for one evening......

    http://www.bbc.com/news/politics/constituencies/S14000008
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453

    Now you're being greedy......

    A majority, Vince Cable, Ed Balls, three party leader out and Berwickshire?.....it was only 328 votes out....but I think the gods decided we were having enough fun for one evening......

    http://www.bbc.com/news/politics/constituencies/S14000008

    And Bercow.

    Please, please, please can we have Bercow too?

    I promise I'll be good...
This discussion has been closed.