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  • YBarddCwscYBarddCwsc Posts: 7,172
    kjohnw said:

    It's almost like the Tories have set up an elephant sized trap for Labour which Labour are desperate to walk into

    I sense panic at Miliband HQ he knows he is going to lose
    I don’t know what is going to happen -- but I do agree that the mood music from Labour does now seem nervous.

  • The_ApocalypseThe_Apocalypse Posts: 7,830
    kle4 said:

    It's interesting that we still occasionally get comments implying how almost all Tories are really overconfident about the result, when it seems to me that Labour supporters are in general making more assumptions that the result will fall their way. Which makes sense to me, I think it will to and don't know why there has been so much Labour pessimism around, but it's weird that the perception still remains to some extent that its the Tories (in general, not specific people) who are getting cocky.

    Tbf, this site is full of overconfident Tories bar a few. It's the most pro-Conservative site I've ever been on - it's probably even more Tory than ConservativeHome, and that's saying something.The way many are talking you'd think the Tories were on for a 50+ majority!
  • IOSIOS Posts: 1,450
    Compouter2

    According to Rods first model this had a 0.3% probability.


    ALL HAIL THE SWINGBACK!
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,417
    https://yougov.co.uk/#/centre

    Use this as a guide to backing Conservatives in individual seats I reckon !
  • MTimTMTimT Posts: 7,034
    kle4 said:

    Just maintaining that Independent line.
    MTimT said:

    Leaving aside all other knowledge of this election, it is interesting from this image on the BBC News web site of the three leaders that both Cameron and Clegg look defensive and slightly hurt, whereas Miliband looks aggressive. A reflection of their campaign styles?

    http://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/660/media/images/82761000/jpg/_82761051_bbcleaderscomp.jpg

    IDK, Clegg has seemed the more punchy in this campaign as far as I can tell. Ed's had some moments like that, but on the whole I've thought he was making a Mr Super Reasonable and laid back sort of pitch.
    Being in the States, very little of the minutiae of the election makes it here, save for what I read on the warping lens of PB. :)
  • watford30watford30 Posts: 3,474
    IOS said:

    Midwinter

    For every one of me there are 10 PB Tories. And the difference is I am going to be right.

    Oh for the days when everyone was so certain on here that the campaign would tear Ed apart.

    LOL LOL LOL

    Gawd. Not more hubris from a Labour shill. Tell us again how you won it with a leaflet delivery.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,736
    Tonights YG EICIPM
  • anotherDaveanotherDave Posts: 6,746
    Neil said:

    FPT: A day today delivering a tonnage of leaflets, rather than direct voter contact. But I did get the first voter raising fears about gay marriage. Although it was not going to stop her changing her vote from LibDem last time to Tory this!

    Met various other people switching the right way for us - either to Con from LibDem or from LibDem to Labour - both of which work for us Cons in Torbay! If that is indicative of any wider picture, then.....

    Plus our phone calls checking on our postal vote pledges are showing they are absolutely rock solid in sending them back already. No slippage...

    A Tory bullish about their chances in Torbay. Anyone else feeling all nostalgic?
    Any predictions for the Green result?

  • IOSIOS Posts: 1,450
    edited May 2015
    bigjohnowls

    CORRECTION Tonight's YG is TWO DAYS FROM EICIPM
  • nigel4englandnigel4england Posts: 4,800
    IOS said:

    Midwinter

    For every one of me there are 10 PB Tories. And the difference is I am going to be right.

    Oh for the days when everyone was so certain on here that the campaign would tear Ed apart.

    LOL LOL LOL

    Are you out knocking on doors after college tomorrow?
  • Ishmael_XIshmael_X Posts: 3,664
    edited May 2015
    IOS said:

    Ishmael

    Common lets bet. You say Con 37% I will give you 2-1 against.

    LET'S GO

    Are you drunk?

    Once again, I expect an absolute loss of Lab votes, not a re-allocation of them. Where are you getting Con 37%?

    Edit: "Are you drunk" was a rhetorical question - but you really are, aren't you?
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,822
    Time to come off the fence. Here are my predictions:

    Turnout 68%

    Con 36%
    Lab 32%
    LD 11%
    UKIP 10%
    Green 4%
    SNP 4%
    Other (inc Plaid) 3%

    Seats:

    Con 295
    Lab 258
    LD 22
    SNP 48
    UKIP 3
    PC 3
    Respect 1
    Green 1
    NI 18
    Speaker 1

    Next government: Chaotic and weak Con minority, which won't last long.
  • IOSIOS Posts: 1,450
    Nigel

    Amazing put down mate. They should hire you at Tory HQ. Might be able to land a blow on Miliband in a way they haven't so far.


    But but but EDSTONE wah wah wah
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,591

    kle4 said:

    It's interesting that we still occasionally get comments implying how almost all Tories are really overconfident about the result, when it seems to me that Labour supporters are in general making more assumptions that the result will fall their way. Which makes sense to me, I think it will to and don't know why there has been so much Labour pessimism around, but it's weird that the perception still remains to some extent that its the Tories (in general, not specific people) who are getting cocky.

    Tbf, this site is full of overconfident Tories bar a few. It's the most pro-Conservative site I've ever been on - it's probably even more Tory than ConservativeHome, and that's saying something.The way many are talking you'd think the Tories were on for a 50+ majority!
    There are numerous Tories on here who think they are going to lose. I see many more highly visible Tories one might think are therefore predicting a Tory majority, who are actually not. I believe the official prediction game has Tories most seats, but generally in line with polling predictions.

    If anything, I think LDs are overrepresented, or at least people sympathetic to the LDs.
  • NeilNeil Posts: 7,983

    Neil said:

    FPT: A day today delivering a tonnage of leaflets, rather than direct voter contact. But I did get the first voter raising fears about gay marriage. Although it was not going to stop her changing her vote from LibDem last time to Tory this!

    Met various other people switching the right way for us - either to Con from LibDem or from LibDem to Labour - both of which work for us Cons in Torbay! If that is indicative of any wider picture, then.....

    Plus our phone calls checking on our postal vote pledges are showing they are absolutely rock solid in sending them back already. No slippage...

    A Tory bullish about their chances in Torbay. Anyone else feeling all nostalgic?
    Any predictions for the Green result?

    1 seat.

    Pretty much the prediction I would have given at any stage over the course of this Parliament.

  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,417
    Neil said:

    FPT: A day today delivering a tonnage of leaflets, rather than direct voter contact. But I did get the first voter raising fears about gay marriage. Although it was not going to stop her changing her vote from LibDem last time to Tory this!

    Met various other people switching the right way for us - either to Con from LibDem or from LibDem to Labour - both of which work for us Cons in Torbay! If that is indicative of any wider picture, then.....

    Plus our phone calls checking on our postal vote pledges are showing they are absolutely rock solid in sending them back already. No slippage...

    A Tory bullish about their chances in Torbay. Anyone else feeling all nostalgic?
    I reckon Clegg's named poll is a good pointer that Sanders will hold, unfortunately for Kevin.
  • OllyTOllyT Posts: 5,006

    OllyT said:

    CON - 33% (-1)
    LAB - 33% (-)
    UKIP - 12% (-)
    LDEM - 10% (+1)
    GRN - 5% (-)

    I don't know why we even bother...we all know it what it will be (and if it isn't it will be back to that the next day).
    No sulking, we all know that the PB Tories were expecting a 2% lead tonight in which case YouGov would have been cheered to the rafters!

    Seriously though it is going to be very interesting to see what the final phone polls say this week - if they still have 4%+ Tory leads they could be in for a good night, but if those polls narrow towards the online polls then it's going to be tight and we can probably conclude that the "Edstone" was not the tipping point/ "Sheffield Rally" moment that the majority on here have claimed it would be.

    Why would I be sulking?

    And I made no claims about tonights polls or any mention of Ed Stone being his Sheffield Rally moment.
    I was making a general point about PB Tories not you in particular, although saying 'why bother' with Yougov when it shows the Tories losing their lead does come across as a little sulky but if it wasn't accept please my apologies
  • nigel4englandnigel4england Posts: 4,800
    Just watching last Friday's HIGNFY, do you think that Ian Hislop has the self awareness to realize he is now a stalwart of the establishment he has made a living fighting against?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,591
    IOS said:

    Nigel

    Amazing put down mate. They should hire you at Tory HQ. Might be able to land a blow on Miliband in a way they haven't so far.


    But but but EDSTONE wah wah wah

    You can count on one hand people who thought the Edstone would change things. It was just the first and only amusing diversion of the campaign to date and so much welcomed.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,591
    It is worth noting that if you are not an avowed anti-Tory you do run the risk of being labelled as a PBTory by default, even if you've never voted Tory in your life, even at a Euro or local election, which might go someway to explaining the disconnect between how Tory people think things are around here.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,978
    Neil said:

    Neil said:

    FPT: A day today delivering a tonnage of leaflets, rather than direct voter contact. But I did get the first voter raising fears about gay marriage. Although it was not going to stop her changing her vote from LibDem last time to Tory this!

    Met various other people switching the right way for us - either to Con from LibDem or from LibDem to Labour - both of which work for us Cons in Torbay! If that is indicative of any wider picture, then.....

    Plus our phone calls checking on our postal vote pledges are showing they are absolutely rock solid in sending them back already. No slippage...

    A Tory bullish about their chances in Torbay. Anyone else feeling all nostalgic?
    Any predictions for the Green result?

    1 seat.

    Pretty much the prediction I would have given at any stage over the course of this Parliament.

    Do you want my bank details now or on Friday? :lol:
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,533
    edited May 2015
    OllyT said:

    OllyT said:

    CON - 33% (-1)
    LAB - 33% (-)
    UKIP - 12% (-)
    LDEM - 10% (+1)
    GRN - 5% (-)

    I don't know why we even bother...we all know it what it will be (and if it isn't it will be back to that the next day).
    No sulking, we all know that the PB Tories were expecting a 2% lead tonight in which case YouGov would have been cheered to the rafters!

    Seriously though it is going to be very interesting to see what the final phone polls say this week - if they still have 4%+ Tory leads they could be in for a good night, but if those polls narrow towards the online polls then it's going to be tight and we can probably conclude that the "Edstone" was not the tipping point/ "Sheffield Rally" moment that the majority on here have claimed it would be.

    Why would I be sulking?

    And I made no claims about tonights polls or any mention of Ed Stone being his Sheffield Rally moment.
    I was making a general point about PB Tories not you in particular, although saying 'why bother' with Yougov when it shows the Tories losing their lead does come across as a little sulky but if it wasn't accept please my apologies
    #1) not a PB Tory.

    #2) It is kinda of jokey, because we all sit here F5'ing for YouGov every night and for 3 months it has basically been the same....we all know loads of people are at 10.29pm every night...and we will be here again tomorrow as well doing exactly the same.
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    kle4 said:

    It's interesting that we still occasionally get comments implying how almost all Tories are really overconfident about the result, when it seems to me that Labour supporters are in general making more assumptions that the result will fall their way. Which makes sense to me, I think it will to and don't know why there has been so much Labour pessimism around, but it's weird that the perception still remains to some extent that its the Tories (in general, not specific people) who are getting cocky.

    Does any Labour supporter think that they will win a majority? Realistically the only hope is for more seats, but that is no where near enough to form a government.

    Ditto for the Cons. This looks like the election without a winner.
  • nigel4englandnigel4england Posts: 4,800
    IOS said:

    Nigel

    Amazing put down mate. They should hire you at Tory HQ. Might be able to land a blow on Miliband in a way they haven't so far.


    But but but EDSTONE wah wah wah

    Stop being so screechy and childish and you may get some respect.
  • OllyTOllyT Posts: 5,006
    kjohnw said:

    It's almost like the Tories have set up an elephant sized trap for Labour which Labour are desperate to walk into

    https://twitter.com/SkyNews/status/595338871442903041

    I sense panic at Miliband HQ he knows he is going to lose
    With all due respect I think the Murdoch press would be the last source to trust with any headlines they come out with on "Labour's secret plans" 3 days ahead of a general election.
    Most people will see it for what it is, another attempt by Rupert to try to install a UK government that suits his purpose.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Seems to be an uptick in LD support towards double figures which is what a lot of people have been expecting, although not as late as this.
  • NeilNeil Posts: 7,983

    Neil said:

    Neil said:

    FPT: A day today delivering a tonnage of leaflets, rather than direct voter contact. But I did get the first voter raising fears about gay marriage. Although it was not going to stop her changing her vote from LibDem last time to Tory this!

    Met various other people switching the right way for us - either to Con from LibDem or from LibDem to Labour - both of which work for us Cons in Torbay! If that is indicative of any wider picture, then.....

    Plus our phone calls checking on our postal vote pledges are showing they are absolutely rock solid in sending them back already. No slippage...

    A Tory bullish about their chances in Torbay. Anyone else feeling all nostalgic?
    Any predictions for the Green result?

    1 seat.

    Pretty much the prediction I would have given at any stage over the course of this Parliament.

    Do you want my bank details now or on Friday? :lol:
    Actually I'm inconveniently out of the country from Thursday. If I'm slow to be in touch about paying losses on GE bets it's not that I've done a runner, I will be back next week!Mind you I dont expect to lose to you... ;)

  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,591

    kle4 said:

    It's interesting that we still occasionally get comments implying how almost all Tories are really overconfident about the result, when it seems to me that Labour supporters are in general making more assumptions that the result will fall their way. Which makes sense to me, I think it will to and don't know why there has been so much Labour pessimism around, but it's weird that the perception still remains to some extent that its the Tories (in general, not specific people) who are getting cocky.

    Does any Labour supporter think that they will win a majority? Realistically the only hope is for more seats, but that is no where near enough to form a government.

    Ditto for the Cons. This looks like the election without a winner.
    By 'result will fall their way' I mean that the coalition/deal mathematics will favour Labour, which I find hard to dispute. Personally I was predicting a Labour majority about 2.5 months ago, but I don't know if even Labour supporters are now.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,978
    More Labour hypocrisy

    LABOUR are not paying their security guards the Living Wage despite demanding other employers stump up.

    Uniformed officers who oversee the party’s Newcastle base earn less than £7.85 an hour, the minimum figure experts say workers outside London need to get by.

    http://www.thesun.co.uk/sol/homepage/news/politics/6441277/Miliband-in-second-slave-labour-row.html
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,591

    Just watching last Friday's HIGNFY, do you think that Ian Hislop has the self awareness to realize he is now a stalwart of the establishment he has made a living fighting against?

    I'm not a regular reader of PrivateEye, but I always felt such works to be gentle teasing with the occasional bit of more cutting comment from within the establishment rather than fighting against it. Maybe that's unfair of me.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,978
    Neil said:

    Neil said:

    Neil said:

    FPT: A day today delivering a tonnage of leaflets, rather than direct voter contact. But I did get the first voter raising fears about gay marriage. Although it was not going to stop her changing her vote from LibDem last time to Tory this!

    Met various other people switching the right way for us - either to Con from LibDem or from LibDem to Labour - both of which work for us Cons in Torbay! If that is indicative of any wider picture, then.....

    Plus our phone calls checking on our postal vote pledges are showing they are absolutely rock solid in sending them back already. No slippage...

    A Tory bullish about their chances in Torbay. Anyone else feeling all nostalgic?
    Any predictions for the Green result?

    1 seat.

    Pretty much the prediction I would have given at any stage over the course of this Parliament.

    Do you want my bank details now or on Friday? :lol:
    Actually I'm inconveniently out of the country from Thursday. If I'm slow to be in touch about paying losses on GE bets it's not that I've done a runner, I will be back next week!Mind you I dont expect to lose to you... ;)

    I'm not expecting to win that one, there was a period for a few weeks, when it started looking like a nailed on winner, and I even donated to the Greens, so they could put up candidates.
  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    edited May 2015
    OK. Even without the E&W details, I have input figures into my E&W model, and this what I get GB wide in %.

    Con 32.99%, Lab 33.03%, LD 9.98%, UKIP, 11.98%, GRN 4.98%. Virtually identical to You gov.

    This gives me E&W wide:

    Con 35.5%, Lab 34.5%, LD 10.7%, UKIP, 13.4%, GRN 5.2%.

    which, in turn, gives [ UNS ]

    Con 266, Lab 281, LD 18, UKIP 3, GRN 1, PC 3, SPK 1 Total = 573

    add: Scotland

    Con 0, Lab 5, LD 1, SNP 53

    Total on 04/05/15

    Con 266, Lab 286, LD 19, UKIP 3, GRN 1, PC 3, SPK 1, SNP 53 Total = 632


    You may not agree with the results because of your personal judgements.

    Based on tonight's Yougov

    But this is pure arithmentic [ UNS on E&W and Scotland separately ]

    If BJO is reading this, you could be on to £600 mate !
  • Ishmael_XIshmael_X Posts: 3,664
    kle4 said:

    IOS said:

    Nigel

    Amazing put down mate. They should hire you at Tory HQ. Might be able to land a blow on Miliband in a way they haven't so far.


    But but but EDSTONE wah wah wah

    You can count on one hand people who thought the Edstone would change things. It was just the first and only amusing diversion of the campaign to date and so much welcomed.
    It will. Remember, the whole point about Sheffield was that it didn't show up in the polling at all.
  • OllyTOllyT Posts: 5,006
    kle4 said:

    IOS said:

    Nigel

    Amazing put down mate. They should hire you at Tory HQ. Might be able to land a blow on Miliband in a way they haven't so far.


    But but but EDSTONE wah wah wah

    You can count on one hand people who thought the Edstone would change things. It was just the first and only amusing diversion of the campaign to date and so much welcomed.
    I know that was your view but I think their is a little rewriting history going on here - did not George Osborne himself tweet "Sheffield Rally moment" ?
  • MikeKMikeK Posts: 9,053
    http://www.breitbart.com/london/2015/05/04/oldest-tory-think-tank-endorses-ukip/

    The Conservative Party’s oldest think tank, the Bow Group, has endorsed UKIP in seats the Tories cannot win. The Bow Group’s chairman, Ben Harris-Quinney, made the announcement in an email to the group’s 10,000 members on Monday.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    I think Prof John Curtis's and Peter Kellner's predictions are more likely to be correct than these figures.
    surbiton said:

    OK. Even without the E&W details, I have input figures into my E&W model, and this what I get GB wide in %.

    Con 32.99%, Lab 33.03%, LD 9.98%, UKIP, 11.98%, GRN 4.98%. Virtually identical to You gov.

    This gives me E&W wide:

    Con 35.5%, Lab 34.5%, LD 10.7%, UKIP, 13.4%, GRN 5.2%.

    which, in turn, gives [ UNS ]

    Con 266, Lab 281, LD 18, UKIP 3, GRN 1, PC 3, SPK 1 Total = 573

    add: Scotland

    Con 0, Lab 5, LD 1, SNP 53

    Total on 04/05/15

    Con 266, Lab 286, LD 19, UKIP 3, GRN 1, PC 3, SPK 1, SNP 53 Total = 632


    You may not agree with the results because of your personal judgements.

    Based on tonight's Yougov

    But this is pure arithmentic [ UNS on E&W and Scotland separately ]

    If BJO is reading this, you could be on to £600 mate !

  • SmarmeronSmarmeron Posts: 5,099
    @TheScreamingEagles
    I sense you have never had to work in general security? It would be hard to find any "reputable" company that has decent rates.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,978
    edited May 2015
    Smarmeron said:

    @TheScreamingEagles
    I sense you have never had to work in general security? It would be hard to find any "reputable" company that has decent rates.

    Actually you'd be very wrong.

    I used to have clients in the sector
  • john_zimsjohn_zims Posts: 3,399
    @surbiton

    'OK. Even without the E&W details, I have input figures into my E&W model, and this what I get GB wide in %.'

    Whatever makes you happy and calms you down a bit !
  • The_ApocalypseThe_Apocalypse Posts: 7,830
    kle4 said:

    kle4 said:

    It's interesting that we still occasionally get comments implying how almost all Tories are really overconfident about the result, when it seems to me that Labour supporters are in general making more assumptions that the result will fall their way. Which makes sense to me, I think it will to and don't know why there has been so much Labour pessimism around, but it's weird that the perception still remains to some extent that its the Tories (in general, not specific people) who are getting cocky.

    Tbf, this site is full of overconfident Tories bar a few. It's the most pro-Conservative site I've ever been on - it's probably even more Tory than ConservativeHome, and that's saying something.The way many are talking you'd think the Tories were on for a 50+ majority!
    There are numerous Tories on here who think they are going to lose. I see many more highly visible Tories one might think are therefore predicting a Tory majority, who are actually not. I believe the official prediction game has Tories most seats, but generally in line with polling predictions.

    If anything, I think LDs are overrepresented, or at least people sympathetic to the LDs.
    Beyond you, and Bob_Sykes I can't recall other pessimistic Tories, although I'll take your word for it. I actually think more people on this site are sympathetic towards Clegg, rather than the LDs in general!.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,591
    edited May 2015
    OllyT said:

    kle4 said:

    IOS said:

    Nigel

    Amazing put down mate. They should hire you at Tory HQ. Might be able to land a blow on Miliband in a way they haven't so far.


    But but but EDSTONE wah wah wah

    You can count on one hand people who thought the Edstone would change things. It was just the first and only amusing diversion of the campaign to date and so much welcomed.
    I know that was your view but I think their is a little rewriting history going on here - did not George Osborne himself tweet "Sheffield Rally moment" ?
    I had assumed it was a dig at the commentary on here, which mentioned it a little (usually with a question mark), but overwhelmingly was of the view it was amusing, but not game changing, even if many thought it more symbolic of Ed's weaknesses than I personally would say. Wider world? If you say so, I only saw a few pieces to that effect but perhaps I unconsciously gravitate away from the sort of punditry that would run that extreme Plus since I don't use Twitter, I have no idea what people are saying on it.
  • FPT: A day today delivering a tonnage of leaflets, rather than direct voter contact. But I did get the first voter raising fears about gay marriage. Although it was not going to stop her changing her vote from LibDem last time to Tory this!

    Met various other people switching the right way for us - either to Con from LibDem or from LibDem to Labour - both of which work for us Cons in Torbay! If that is indicative of any wider picture, then.....

    Plus our phone calls checking on our postal vote pledges are showing they are absolutely rock solid in sending them back already. No slippage...

    Torbay is one of the very few constituencies offering free money by backing the LiDems at 11/10 with bet365 and at Evens with Betfair Sportsbook.
    OK, it only produces a 2.3% profit on the combined stake, but that's better than a poke in the eye, etc.
  • compouter2compouter2 Posts: 2,371

    More Labour hypocrisy

    LABOUR are not paying their security guards the Living Wage despite demanding other employers stump up.

    Uniformed officers who oversee the party’s Newcastle base earn less than £7.85 an hour, the minimum figure experts say workers outside London need to get by.

    http://www.thesun.co.uk/sol/homepage/news/politics/6441277/Miliband-in-second-slave-labour-row.html

    Getting desperate now. Wednesdays Front Page for The Scum - Cleaner in West Brom Labour club paid less than living wage and unpaid for twenty minutes overtime.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 52,149
    Nice cartoon, Marf! :)
  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    AndyJS said:

    I think Prof John Curtis's and Peter Kellner's predictions are more likely to be correct than these figures.

    surbiton said:

    OK. Even without the E&W details, I have input figures into my E&W model, and this what I get GB wide in %.

    Con 32.99%, Lab 33.03%, LD 9.98%, UKIP, 11.98%, GRN 4.98%. Virtually identical to You gov.

    This gives me E&W wide:

    Con 35.5%, Lab 34.5%, LD 10.7%, UKIP, 13.4%, GRN 5.2%.

    which, in turn, gives [ UNS ]

    Con 266, Lab 281, LD 18, UKIP 3, GRN 1, PC 3, SPK 1 Total = 573

    add: Scotland

    Con 0, Lab 5, LD 1, SNP 53

    Total on 04/05/15

    Con 266, Lab 286, LD 19, UKIP 3, GRN 1, PC 3, SPK 1, SNP 53 Total = 632


    You may not agree with the results because of your personal judgements.

    Based on tonight's Yougov

    But this is pure arithmentic [ UNS on E&W and Scotland separately ]

    If BJO is reading this, you could be on to £600 mate !

    One of the interesting points about Kellner is that Yougov does a NOWCAST based on statistical swings.

    Kellner then doesn't believe it because of his "professional reputation".

    So, he manually adjusts the figures to come up with what he "thinks" it will be. Converging to the pollster's herd.

    Where you could have questioned my analysis perfectly legitimately would have been the source.

    The source is Yougov. And Yougov could be badly wrong !! Then the analysis would also be wrong.

    But we don't know who is correct, do we ?
  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    MikeK said:

    http://www.breitbart.com/london/2015/05/04/oldest-tory-think-tank-endorses-ukip/

    The Conservative Party’s oldest think tank, the Bow Group, has endorsed UKIP in seats the Tories cannot win. The Bow Group’s chairman, Ben Harris-Quinney, made the announcement in an email to the group’s 10,000 members on Monday.

    Apparently, Heseltine is pi**ed off !
  • Time to come off the fence. Here are my predictions:

    Turnout 68%

    Con 36%
    Lab 32%
    LD 11%
    UKIP 10%
    Green 4%
    SNP 4%
    Other (inc Plaid) 3%

    Seats:

    Con 295
    Lab 258
    LD 22
    SNP 48
    UKIP 3
    PC 3
    Respect 1
    Green 1
    NI 18
    Speaker 1

    Next government: Chaotic and weak Con minority, which won't last long.

    I've been thinking 36/32 for quite a while - agree it leaves Cam a bit short of anything meaningful.

    Chaotic government apart, that would be a fine result for the Tories, since that most of the lost LB vote is supposed to have gone to Labour and most of the UKIP vote is perceived to be coming from CON.
  • SmarmeronSmarmeron Posts: 5,099
    @TheScreamingEagles

    I know most of the crews that work the festivals and events, and I can assure you, it pays peanuts. (though sometimes the perks are worthwhile)
    ;)
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,591
    edited May 2015

    kle4 said:

    kle4 said:

    It's interesting that we still occasionally get comments implying how almost all Tories are really overconfident about the result, when it seems to me that Labour supporters are in general making more assumptions that the result will fall their way. Which makes sense to me, I think it will to and don't know why there has been so much Labour pessimism around, but it's weird that the perception still remains to some extent that its the Tories (in general, not specific people) who are getting cocky.

    Tbf, this site is full of overconfident Tories bar a few. It's the most pro-Conservative site I've ever been on - it's probably even more Tory than ConservativeHome, and that's saying something.The way many are talking you'd think the Tories were on for a 50+ majority!
    There are numerous Tories on here who think they are going to lose. I see many more highly visible Tories one might think are therefore predicting a Tory majority, who are actually not. I believe the official prediction game has Tories most seats, but generally in line with polling predictions.

    If anything, I think LDs are overrepresented, or at least people sympathetic to the LDs.
    Beyond you, and Bob_Sykes I can't recall other pessimistic Tories, although I'll take your word for it. I actually think more people on this site are sympathetic towards Clegg, rather than the LDs in general!.
    I am sure the pessimistic Tories can make themselves known, but I am not actually one of them. I've never voted Tory; though I lean more instinctively toward them than Labour (I've always presumed as a result of living all my life in Tory heartlands), I'm not fearing a Labour win either, or Ed M being PM. If he is egregiously worse than any other PM, it'll be because the situation he'll have to confront is politically much more complicated than others have faced.
  • Tonights YG EICIPM

    Only if you accept he is lying about not taking support from the SNP
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,569



    Does any Labour supporter think that they will win a majority? Realistically the only hope is for more seats, but that is no where near enough to form a government.

    Ditto for the Cons. This looks like the election without a winner.

    I won't join in the hubris fest on the thread, since I think it's genuinely hard to predict vote shares and the resulting seat changes, but the basic difference between the position of the main parties is that there is likely to be a clear majority against the Conservatives and it's unlikely there will be one against Labour. That applies whether the result is 34-36 or 36-34 or any other plausible outcome.

    Looking forward to seeing many of you tomorrow!


  • nigel4englandnigel4england Posts: 4,800

    More Labour hypocrisy

    LABOUR are not paying their security guards the Living Wage despite demanding other employers stump up.

    Uniformed officers who oversee the party’s Newcastle base earn less than £7.85 an hour, the minimum figure experts say workers outside London need to get by.

    http://www.thesun.co.uk/sol/homepage/news/politics/6441277/Miliband-in-second-slave-labour-row.html

    Getting desperate now. Wednesdays Front Page for The Scum - Cleaner in West Brom Labour club paid less than living wage and unpaid for twenty minutes overtime.
    For real desperation please read the posts of one IOS.
  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    Bristol West
    Devon North
    Portsmouth South
    Bath
    Colchester
    Ceredigion
    Orkney & Shetland
    Carshalton & Wallington
    Hazel Grove
    Leeds North West
    Lewes
    Kingston & Surbiton
    Norfolk North
    Sheffield Hallam
    Southport
    Thornbury & Yate
    Twickenham
    Westmorland & Lonsdale
    Yeovil

    These are the 19 LD wins , I get. Note it includes Bristol West - a certain loss !
    By the way, on pure E&W swing, Hallam is very comfortable. In reality, we do not know.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,736
    surbiton said:

    OK. Even without the E&W details, I have input figures into my E&W model, and this what I get GB wide in %.

    Con 32.99%, Lab 33.03%, LD 9.98%, UKIP, 11.98%, GRN 4.98%. Virtually identical to You gov.

    This gives me E&W wide:

    Con 35.5%, Lab 34.5%, LD 10.7%, UKIP, 13.4%, GRN 5.2%.

    which, in turn, gives [ UNS ]

    Con 266, Lab 281, LD 18, UKIP 3, GRN 1, PC 3, SPK 1 Total = 573

    add: Scotland

    Con 0, Lab 5, LD 1, SNP 53

    Total on 04/05/15

    Con 266, Lab 286, LD 19, UKIP 3, GRN 1, PC 3, SPK 1, SNP 53 Total = 632


    You may not agree with the results because of your personal judgements.

    Based on tonight's Yougov

    But this is pure arithmentic [ UNS on E&W and Scotland separately ]

    If BJO is reading this, you could be on to £600 mate !

    In excess of £2k as i made about £400 profit on selling my EICIPM position.

    All that is now on Lab most seats effectively a free bet including the £100 last night at 6.0

  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,656
    surbiton said:

    Bristol West
    Devon North
    Portsmouth South
    Bath
    Colchester
    Ceredigion
    Orkney & Shetland
    Carshalton & Wallington
    Hazel Grove
    Leeds North West
    Lewes
    Kingston & Surbiton
    Norfolk North
    Sheffield Hallam
    Southport
    Thornbury & Yate
    Twickenham
    Westmorland & Lonsdale
    Yeovil

    These are the 19 LD wins , I get. Note it includes Bristol West - a certain loss !
    By the way, on pure E&W swing, Hallam is very comfortable. In reality, we do not know.

    The LibDems won't win Portsmouth South. I don't they'll even be second.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,656
    surbiton said:

    Bristol West
    Devon North
    Portsmouth South
    Bath
    Colchester
    Ceredigion
    Orkney & Shetland
    Carshalton & Wallington
    Hazel Grove
    Leeds North West
    Lewes
    Kingston & Surbiton
    Norfolk North
    Sheffield Hallam
    Southport
    Thornbury & Yate
    Twickenham
    Westmorland & Lonsdale
    Yeovil

    These are the 19 LD wins , I get. Note it includes Bristol West - a certain loss !
    By the way, on pure E&W swing, Hallam is very comfortable. In reality, we do not know.

    They may well lose Ceredigion and Bath too.

    They'll win Cambridge, mind. And Southwark.

    And they'll win two of Birmingham Yardley, Bradford East, Cardiff Central, and Hornsey and Wood Green.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,656
    surbiton said:

    Bristol West
    Devon North
    Portsmouth South
    Bath
    Colchester
    Ceredigion
    Orkney & Shetland
    Carshalton & Wallington
    Hazel Grove
    Leeds North West
    Lewes
    Kingston & Surbiton
    Norfolk North
    Sheffield Hallam
    Southport
    Thornbury & Yate
    Twickenham
    Westmorland & Lonsdale
    Yeovil

    These are the 19 LD wins , I get. Note it includes Bristol West - a certain loss !
    By the way, on pure E&W swing, Hallam is very comfortable. In reality, we do not know.

    I think they'll probably lose Devon North also.

    Actually, your list is rubbish.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,591
    edited May 2015



    Does any Labour supporter think that they will win a majority? Realistically the only hope is for more seats, but that is no where near enough to form a government.

    Ditto for the Cons. This looks like the election without a winner.

    I won't join in the hubris fest on the thread, since I think it's genuinely hard to predict vote shares and the resulting seat changes, but the basic difference between the position of the main parties is that there is likely to be a clear majority against the Conservatives and it's unlikely there will be one against Labour.
    Surely there will be clear majorities against both - it's just that Labour can negotiate more allies to get around that; while it's hard to envisage those potential allies abstaining or voting against Labour, they should not be counted as automatically counting for Labour even so.

    At the end of the day the Tories have few potential allies, those they have are not certain allies, and of those the biggest potential ally is going to lose a lot of seats. Therefore, unless as a bare minimum the Tories lose net 0-10 seats, they probably cannot even get to the effective majority level of 323 even if things go well for them and their allies have enough seats to get to that and are willing to deal.

    Personally I think 290 is too high an estimate for the Conservatives, but it's still only at the upper end of the range of the forecasts, so definitely hard to achieve.
  • YBarddCwscYBarddCwsc Posts: 7,172
    rcs1000 said:

    surbiton said:

    Bristol West
    Devon North
    Portsmouth South
    Bath
    Colchester
    Ceredigion
    Orkney & Shetland
    Carshalton & Wallington
    Hazel Grove
    Leeds North West
    Lewes
    Kingston & Surbiton
    Norfolk North
    Sheffield Hallam
    Southport
    Thornbury & Yate
    Twickenham
    Westmorland & Lonsdale
    Yeovil

    These are the 19 LD wins , I get. Note it includes Bristol West - a certain loss !
    By the way, on pure E&W swing, Hallam is very comfortable. In reality, we do not know.

    They may well lose Ceredigion and Bath too.

    They'll win Cambridge, mind. And Southwark.

    And they'll win two of Birmingham Yardley, Bradford East, Cardiff Central, and Hornsey and Wood Green.
    I think they’ll hold Ceredigion (as the Plaid Cymru and Labour candidates had an unseemly role about English incomers).

    They are more likely to lose Brecon & Radnor.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,736

    Tonights YG EICIPM

    Only if you accept he is lying about not taking support from the SNP
    Well would be LAB most seats on those percentages so Dave would be gone so who else do you think would be PM?
  • peter_from_putneypeter_from_putney Posts: 6,956
    edited May 2015

    Time to come off the fence. Here are my predictions:

    Turnout 68%

    Con 36%
    Lab 32%
    LD 11%
    UKIP 10%
    Green 4%
    SNP 4%
    Other (inc Plaid) 3%

    Seats:

    Con 295
    Lab 258
    LD 22
    SNP 48
    UKIP 3
    PC 3
    Respect 1
    Green 1
    NI 18
    Speaker 1

    Next government: Chaotic and weak Con minority, which won't last long.

    Thanks Richard - as someone with one of the most astute brains on PB.com that's very interesting and in fact corresponds quite closely with JackW's latest forecast.
    It may not be great for the Tories, but it's worse, a lot worse for both Labour and the LibDems and probably the very best those of us on the blue team could possibly hope for.
  • Ishmael_XIshmael_X Posts: 3,664
    kle4 said:

    OllyT said:

    kle4 said:

    IOS said:

    Nigel

    Amazing put down mate. They should hire you at Tory HQ. Might be able to land a blow on Miliband in a way they haven't so far.


    But but but EDSTONE wah wah wah

    You can count on one hand people who thought the Edstone would change things. It was just the first and only amusing diversion of the campaign to date and so much welcomed.
    I know that was your view but I think their is a little rewriting history going on here - did not George Osborne himself tweet "Sheffield Rally moment" ?
    I had assumed it was a dig at the commentary on here, which mentioned it a little (usually with a question mark), but overwhelmingly was of the view it was amusing, but not game changing, even if many thought it more symbolic of Ed's weaknesses than I personally would say. Wider world? If you say so, I only saw a few pieces to that effect but perhaps I unconsciously gravitate away from the sort of punditry that would run that extreme Plus since I don't use Twitter, I have no idea what people are saying on it.
    I don't get this at all. The point of the Sheffield rally effect was that it kicked in on polling day and was invisible in the intervening nine days. But even if we expected it to show up in the polls, one Yougov isn't really enough to establish that it hasn't, is it?

    More generally as an optimistic Tory I have to clarify that that optimism never extends to dreams of a majority; that would be silly. I just think ed is appreciably more fecked than he looked 48 hours ago.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,952
    Neil said:

    FPT: A day today delivering a tonnage of leaflets, rather than direct voter contact. But I did get the first voter raising fears about gay marriage. Although it was not going to stop her changing her vote from LibDem last time to Tory this!

    Met various other people switching the right way for us - either to Con from LibDem or from LibDem to Labour - both of which work for us Cons in Torbay! If that is indicative of any wider picture, then.....

    Plus our phone calls checking on our postal vote pledges are showing they are absolutely rock solid in sending them back already. No slippage...

    A Tory bullish about their chances in Torbay. Anyone else feeling all nostalgic?
    We can talk about previous optimistic assessments about Torbay later. I do know though that this time we have done far more work, for longer, and with greater coverage of the constituency than was done last time. Will it pay off? Dunno. But then the Torbay LibDems don't know if they will hold it either, I am told.....

    But if you want an incentive to turn out every day, it's a great knife-edge constituency to work!
  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549

    More Labour hypocrisy

    LABOUR are not paying their security guards the Living Wage despite demanding other employers stump up.

    Uniformed officers who oversee the party’s Newcastle base earn less than £7.85 an hour, the minimum figure experts say workers outside London need to get by.

    http://www.thesun.co.uk/sol/homepage/news/politics/6441277/Miliband-in-second-slave-labour-row.html

    Getting desperate now. Wednesdays Front Page for The Scum - Cleaner in West Brom Labour club paid less than living wage and unpaid for twenty minutes overtime.
    Yup, 10% swing coming up because of this !

    How did that song go ? Desperado !
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,591
    Ishmael_X said:

    kle4 said:

    OllyT said:

    kle4 said:

    IOS said:

    Nigel

    Amazing put down mate. They should hire you at Tory HQ. Might be able to land a blow on Miliband in a way they haven't so far.


    But but but EDSTONE wah wah wah

    You can count on one hand people who thought the Edstone would change things. It was just the first and only amusing diversion of the campaign to date and so much welcomed.
    I know that was your view but I think their is a little rewriting history going on here - did not George Osborne himself tweet "Sheffield Rally moment" ?
    I had assumed it was a dig at the commentary on here, which mentioned it a little (usually with a question mark), but overwhelmingly was of the view it was amusing, but not game changing, even if many thought it more symbolic of Ed's weaknesses than I personally would say. Wider world? If you say so, I only saw a few pieces to that effect but perhaps I unconsciously gravitate away from the sort of punditry that would run that extreme Plus since I don't use Twitter, I have no idea what people are saying on it.
    I don't get this at all. The point of the Sheffield rally effect was that it kicked in on polling day and was invisible in the intervening nine days
    As someone not politically aware in 1992, my impression was that people referring to the moment meant there was an instant reaction, but your explanation clarifies things much better for me, given as I do know it was still a surprise when Major won.

  • scotslassscotslass Posts: 912
    steve richards

    Unlike some on this site I think that Richards is a fine journalist. However I think it is difficult for him to regale any longer about the "Tory press" when The Independent is now part of it!

    Could a resignation be on the cards?
  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    edited May 2015

    Neil said:

    FPT: A day today delivering a tonnage of leaflets, rather than direct voter contact. But I did get the first voter raising fears about gay marriage. Although it was not going to stop her changing her vote from LibDem last time to Tory this!

    Met various other people switching the right way for us - either to Con from LibDem or from LibDem to Labour - both of which work for us Cons in Torbay! If that is indicative of any wider picture, then.....

    Plus our phone calls checking on our postal vote pledges are showing they are absolutely rock solid in sending them back already. No slippage...

    A Tory bullish about their chances in Torbay. Anyone else feeling all nostalgic?
    We can talk about previous optimistic assessments about Torbay later. I do know though that this time we have done far more work, for longer, and with greater coverage of the constituency than was done last time. Will it pay off? Dunno. But then the Torbay LibDems don't know if they will hold it either, I am told.....

    But if you want an incentive to turn out every day, it's a great knife-edge constituency to work!
    Tories should win Torbay now. But we don't know how good the LD defence is.
  • The_ApocalypseThe_Apocalypse Posts: 7,830
    kle4 said:

    I am sure the pessimistic Tories can make themselves known, but I am not actually one of them. I've never voted Tory; though I lean more instinctively toward them than Labour (I've always presumed as a result of living all my life in Tory heartlands), I'm not fearing a Labour win either, or Ed M being PM. If he is egregiously worse than any other PM, it'll be because the situation he'll have to confront is politically much more complicated than others have faced.

    I stand corrected. Right now I'm not too fearful of the Tories as the largest party, as the worst excesses will largely be constrained because of the parliamentary arithmetic. My worst scenario, would be Con-Ukip-Dup coalition, although I doubt that could work due to the numbers!
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,656
    There are at least five constituencies on @surbiton's list I'd expect the LibDems to lose. And probably five others is expect them to hold. I think his 19 is probably about right, but I think he misses conservative voters voting tactically for LibDems.
  • DairDair Posts: 6,108
    edited May 2015
    Labour set up with the Clerkin/Izzard event now confirmed.

    https://twitter.com/dhothersall/status/595164723185844224

    Time stamp shows this was posted at 10:55am. Murphy didn't arrive at St Enoch's Square until roughly 11:15. Clearly Hothersall was pre-informed of the invitation to Clerkin and the set up.

    First posts from journalists start showing up on twitter around 11:25
  • NeilNeil Posts: 7,983

    Neil said:

    FPT: A day today delivering a tonnage of leaflets, rather than direct voter contact. But I did get the first voter raising fears about gay marriage. Although it was not going to stop her changing her vote from LibDem last time to Tory this!

    Met various other people switching the right way for us - either to Con from LibDem or from LibDem to Labour - both of which work for us Cons in Torbay! If that is indicative of any wider picture, then.....

    Plus our phone calls checking on our postal vote pledges are showing they are absolutely rock solid in sending them back already. No slippage...

    A Tory bullish about their chances in Torbay. Anyone else feeling all nostalgic?
    We can talk about previous optimistic assessments about Torbay later. I do know though that this time we have done far more work, for longer, and with greater coverage of the constituency than was done last time. Will it pay off? Dunno. But then the Torbay LibDems don't know if they will hold it either, I am told.....

    But if you want an incentive to turn out every day, it's a great knife-edge constituency to work!
    Enjoy the excitement of the last week!
  • john_zimsjohn_zims Posts: 3,399
    @bigjohnowls

    'Non issue

    http://press.labour.org.uk/post/118145085824/revealed-two-thirds-of-hospitals-face-swingeing.

    Strange they forgot to mention that many trusts are getting ripped off by Labour's PFI's and consequently struggling with their budgets.
  • EPGEPG Posts: 6,653
    kle4 said:

    It is worth noting that if you are not an avowed anti-Tory you do run the risk of being labelled as a PBTory by default, even if you've never voted Tory in your life, even at a Euro or local election, which might go someway to explaining the disconnect between how Tory people think things are around here.

    There is a strong partisan element to the comments and the sources that are relied on. Rarely do we hear about more Labour-type topics such as the NHS which normal voters discuss. Discussion is instead typically about the latest Labour policy/gaffe (considered the same thing around here, from non-doms to rent controls to Islamophobia to Edstone), tweeted by the bankrupt drink-driver or his little Tory chums, which is reinforced by the latest insights of the Murdoch press into what Labour is thinking, and so on. So when discussion is between today's Tory meme and disagreement with that meme, the site naturally appears like a Tory site to the casual onlooker (and that is indeed how it is considered by onlookers!).
  • compouter2compouter2 Posts: 2,371
    john_zims said:

    @bigjohnowls

    'Non issue

    http://press.labour.org.uk/post/118145085824/revealed-two-thirds-of-hospitals-face-swingeing.

    Strange they forgot to mention that many trusts are getting ripped off by Labour's PFI's and consequently struggling with their budgets.

    Forget all that, what about that cleaner in the West Brom Labour Club. Outrageous!!!!
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,417
    rcs1000 said:

    There are at least five constituencies on @surbiton's list I'd expect the LibDems to lose. And probably five others is expect them to hold. I think his 19 is probably about right, but I think he misses conservative voters voting tactically for LibDems.

    Hornsey and Wood Green and Birmingham Yardley could well be holds. Bristol West is long gone and I don't believe the effect of the name "David Ward" is big enough in Bradford East. I think if a Respect candidate had run there he'd have a really big chance.
  • SmarmeronSmarmeron Posts: 5,099
    @Dair
    Excuse me judge Roy Bean? But all that proves is someone got wind that they were going to protest?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,591
    EPG said:

    kle4 said:

    It is worth noting that if you are not an avowed anti-Tory you do run the risk of being labelled as a PBTory by default, even if you've never voted Tory in your life, even at a Euro or local election, which might go someway to explaining the disconnect between how Tory people think things are around here.

    There is a strong partisan element to the comments and the sources that are relied on.
    On the internet? I'm astonished.

    I for one would welcome more Labour memes and content. Although given the not infrequent complaints about anti-Tory thread headers, curious the comments skew more Tory.

    Night all.
  • john_zimsjohn_zims Posts: 3,399
    @compouter2

    'Forget all that, what about that cleaner in the West Brom Labour Club. Outrageous!!!!'

    Are you still trying to sell plonk in Liverpool ?
  • Neil said:

    FPT: A day today delivering a tonnage of leaflets, rather than direct voter contact. But I did get the first voter raising fears about gay marriage. Although it was not going to stop her changing her vote from LibDem last time to Tory this!

    Met various other people switching the right way for us - either to Con from LibDem or from LibDem to Labour - both of which work for us Cons in Torbay! If that is indicative of any wider picture, then.....

    Plus our phone calls checking on our postal vote pledges are showing they are absolutely rock solid in sending them back already. No slippage...

    A Tory bullish about their chances in Torbay. Anyone else feeling all nostalgic?
    We can talk about previous optimistic assessments about Torbay later. I do know though that this time we have done far more work, for longer, and with greater coverage of the constituency than was done last time. Will it pay off? Dunno. But then the Torbay LibDems don't know if they will hold it either, I am told.....

    But if you want an incentive to turn out every day, it's a great knife-edge constituency to work!
    MM - I sense from your latest briefing from Torbay that you are slightly less hopeful than previously, when you sounded genuinely optimistic. Tonight you appear to view it as an absolute toss-up.
  • paulyorkpaulyork Posts: 50
    Actual seat numbers hard to predict but im backing tory minority gov at 9/2 and labour minority at 2/1. I just dont see the numbers making a formal coalition worthwhile to either party.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,591
    edited May 2015
    Smarmeron said:

    @Dair
    Excuse me judge Roy Bean? But all that proves is someone got wind that they were going to protest?

    There is an interesting difference to the burden of proof apparently required to prove SNP aligned actions vs Unionist allied actions. Surprising no-one.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,672
    Dair said:

    Labour set up with the Clerkin/Izzard event now confirmed.

    https://twitter.com/dhothersall/status/595164723185844224

    Time stamp shows this was posted at 10:55am. Murphy didn't arrive at St Enoch's Square until roughly 11:15. Clearly Hothersall was pre-informed of the invitation to Clerkin and the set up.

    First posts from journalists start showing up on twitter around 11:25

    Ha, ha. Desperate stuff. You really do believe this. It is extraordinary.

  • Life_ina_market_townLife_ina_market_town Posts: 2,319
    edited May 2015

    Time to come off the fence. Here are my predictions:

    Turnout 68%

    Con 36%
    Lab 32%
    LD 11%
    UKIP 10%
    Green 4%
    SNP 4%
    Other (inc Plaid) 3%

    Seats:

    Con 295
    Lab 258
    LD 22
    SNP 48
    UKIP 3
    PC 3
    Respect 1
    Green 1
    NI 18
    Speaker 1

    Next government: Chaotic and weak Con minority, which won't last long.

    Interesting. You appear by necessary implication to be predicting a confidence and supply arrangement between the Tories and the LibDems, with UKIP and Northern Ireland Unionists abstaining at the very least on such votes. There would also be the possibility of passing an EU Referendum Bill even if the Lib Dems were opposed to it. 295 Conservatives (minus 1 Deputy Speaker), 3 UKIP + 10 Northern Ireland Unionists = 307. Such a Bill could pass with the support of 14 Labour rebels.
  • DairDair Posts: 6,108
    Smarmeron said:

    @Dair
    Excuse me judge Roy Bean? But all that proves is someone got wind that they were going to protest?

    No it means the editor of LabourHame who was not at the event, knew in advance, before any journalist posted any tweet and before Murphy/Izzard arrived at the Square that Clerkin was going to be there and something was going to kick off.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,672
    Smarmeron said:

    @Dair
    Excuse me judge Roy Bean? But all that proves is someone got wind that they were going to protest?

    He genuinely believes it. He really does. His belief system makes it impossible for any Nationalist to ever do anything that is misjudged or wrong. In the same way, it is literally unthinkable for any Nationalist claim or assertion to be incorrect. It is genuine fundamentalism.
  • NeilNeil Posts: 7,983

    There would also be the possibility of passing an EU Referendum Bill even if the Lib Dems were opposed to it. 295 Conservatives (minus 1 Deputy Speaker), 3 UKIP + 10 Northern Ireland Unionists = 307. Such a Bill could pass with the support of 14 Labour rebels.

    Caroline Lucas would vote for it too.
  • SmarmeronSmarmeron Posts: 5,099
    @Dair

    Someone at the Square phoned him saying that some bangers were armed with banners, and loud hailers, and named names?
    Stop trying to make up evidence that doesn't exit.
    A bunch of yobs heckled a political event, it happens all the time.
  • DairDair Posts: 6,108
    kle4 said:

    Smarmeron said:

    @Dair
    Excuse me judge Roy Bean? But all that proves is someone got wind that they were going to protest?

    There is an interesting difference to the burden of proof apparently required to prove SNP aligned actions vs Unionist allied actions. Surprising no-one.
    There are at least four registered active political parties that support Independence. In addition there are dozens and dozens of active interest groups that support Independence. The membership of these groups is often discrete and in many cases there is very little of crossover (for example, virtually no RIC members will be SNP members).

    The burden of proof that any activity of independence supporters or anti-SLAB activists are related to the SNP rests 100% with those making the claims.

    I have provided evidence that today's activity in St Enoch Square was an orchestrated John McTernan stunt.

    Here is an example of a John McTernan campaign doing exactly this - sending invites to known opponents not directly related to political opponents but with the intent to "tar with the same brush".

    http://m.adelaidenow.com.au/news/gillard-and-abbott-run-protest-gauntlet/story-e6frea6u-1226254435221

    And as I posted a not far above here, we have the time stamp on tweets from a senior SLAB activists who appears to have known in advance of what was going to happen.

    It is not "beyond a shadow of doubt proof" but it is some evidence for my claim. Where's yours that Clerkin has any involvement with the SNP.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,672
    Dair said:

    Smarmeron said:

    @Dair
    Excuse me judge Roy Bean? But all that proves is someone got wind that they were going to protest?

    No it means the editor of LabourHame who was not at the event, knew in advance, before any journalist posted any tweet and before Murphy/Izzard arrived at the Square that Clerkin was going to be there and something was going to kick off.

    Because, as he has been explaining to your fellow fundamentalists, he read about on Twitter. I know you cannot compute that and genuinely believe Labour orchestrated it all, so this response is not for you it is for others who might be reading.
  • NeilNeil Posts: 7,983

    Smarmeron said:

    @Dair
    Excuse me judge Roy Bean? But all that proves is someone got wind that they were going to protest?

    He genuinely believes it. He really does. His belief system makes it impossible for any Nationalist to ever do anything that is misjudged or wrong. In the same way, it is literally unthinkable for any Nationalist claim or assertion to be incorrect. It is genuine fundamentalism.
    There's a classic of the genre at the bottom of the last thread.

  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    rcs1000 said:

    There are at least five constituencies on @surbiton's list I'd expect the LibDems to lose. And probably five others is expect them to hold. I think his 19 is probably about right, but I think he misses conservative voters voting tactically for LibDems.

    My list is not judgemental or based on local knowledge. It is the result of a purely statistical exercise. Based on UNS and based on tonight's Yougov figures. That's it.
  • DadgeDadge Posts: 2,052
    surbiton said:

    OK. Even without the E&W details, I have input figures into my E&W model, and this what I get GB wide in %.

    Con 32.99%, Lab 33.03%, LD 9.98%, UKIP, 11.98%, GRN 4.98%. Virtually identical to You gov.

    This gives me E&W wide:

    Con 35.5%, Lab 34.5%, LD 10.7%, UKIP, 13.4%, GRN 5.2%.

    which, in turn, gives [ UNS ]

    Con 266, Lab 281, LD 18, UKIP 3, GRN 1, PC 3, SPK 1 Total = 573

    add: Scotland

    Con 0, Lab 5, LD 1, SNP 53

    Total on 04/05/15

    Con 266, Lab 286, LD 19, UKIP 3, GRN 1, PC 3, SPK 1, SNP 53 Total = 632


    You may not agree with the results because of your personal judgements.

    Based on tonight's Yougov

    But this is pure arithmentic [ UNS on E&W and Scotland separately ]

    If BJO is reading this, you could be on to £600 mate !

    If that's the result I and many others will eat our several hats. Richard's prediction is more on the money.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,672
    Neil said:

    Smarmeron said:

    @Dair
    Excuse me judge Roy Bean? But all that proves is someone got wind that they were going to protest?

    He genuinely believes it. He really does. His belief system makes it impossible for any Nationalist to ever do anything that is misjudged or wrong. In the same way, it is literally unthinkable for any Nationalist claim or assertion to be incorrect. It is genuine fundamentalism.
    There's a classic of the genre at the bottom of the last thread.

    The Zinoviev letter?
  • DairDair Posts: 6,108
    Smarmeron said:

    @Dair

    Someone at the Square phoned him saying that some bangers were armed with banners, and loud hailers, and named names?
    Stop trying to make up evidence that doesn't exit.
    A bunch of yobs heckled a political event, it happens all the time.

    That's possible. If you really stretch your credulity.

    There was a group of journalists waiting in the Square, they are likely to have had a couple of Labour handlers spinning them. Thats a pretty busy job for the spinner. You're actually suggesting that in the midst of trying to manage the media, those spinners stopped what they were doing and texted Hothersall is pretty testing for any reasonableness test.

    Far more probable is that Hothersall knew in advance and tweeted before he was supposed to. Very possible if Murphy/Izzard were delayed on their walk down Buchanan Street
  • NeilNeil Posts: 7,983

    Neil said:

    Smarmeron said:

    @Dair
    Excuse me judge Roy Bean? But all that proves is someone got wind that they were going to protest?

    He genuinely believes it. He really does. His belief system makes it impossible for any Nationalist to ever do anything that is misjudged or wrong. In the same way, it is literally unthinkable for any Nationalist claim or assertion to be incorrect. It is genuine fundamentalism.
    There's a classic of the genre at the bottom of the last thread.

    The Zinoviev letter?
    The gift that keeps on giving.
  • DairDair Posts: 6,108

    Dair said:

    Smarmeron said:

    @Dair
    Excuse me judge Roy Bean? But all that proves is someone got wind that they were going to protest?

    No it means the editor of LabourHame who was not at the event, knew in advance, before any journalist posted any tweet and before Murphy/Izzard arrived at the Square that Clerkin was going to be there and something was going to kick off.

    Because, as he has been explaining to your fellow fundamentalists, he read about on Twitter. I know you cannot compute that and genuinely believe Labour orchestrated it all, so this response is not for you it is for others who might be reading.
    There;s nothing fundamentalist about automatically believing "SNP Bad" at every opportunity. Your closed mind clearly doesn't allow you to appreciate that any association of these flakes might be with one of perhaps 60 other pro-Independence groups which have nothing to do with the SNP. Or even nothing to do with pro-Independence and purely motivated by being anti-SLAB.
  • Life_ina_market_townLife_ina_market_town Posts: 2,319
    edited May 2015
    Neil said:

    There would also be the possibility of passing an EU Referendum Bill even if the Lib Dems were opposed to it. 295 Conservatives (minus 1 Deputy Speaker), 3 UKIP + 10 Northern Ireland Unionists = 307. Such a Bill could pass with the support of 14 Labour rebels.

    Caroline Lucas would vote for it too.
    Galloway might back it as well. Assuming Cameron remains PM after the election, it appears he would have to resign or seek a dissolution if he did not get an EU Referendum Bill through Parliament in the first session. The number of pro-referendum MPs in the Commons after the election may therefore be of significance should, as is self-evidently possible, the Conservatives fail to win a majority.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,591
    edited May 2015
    Dair said:

    kle4 said:

    Smarmeron said:

    @Dair
    Excuse me judge Roy Bean? But all that proves is someone got wind that they were going to protest?

    There is an interesting difference to the burden of proof apparently required to prove SNP aligned actions vs Unionist allied actions. Surprising no-one.
    There are at least four registered active political parties that support Independence. In addition there are dozens and dozens of active interest groups that support Independence. The membership of these groups is often discrete and in many cases there is very little of crossover (for example, virtually no RIC members will be SNP members).

    The burden of proof that any activity of independence supporters or anti-SLAB activists are related to the SNP rests 100% with those making the claims.

    I have provided evidence that today's activity in St Enoch Square was an orchestrated John McTernan stunt.

    Here is an example of a John McTernan campaign doing exactly this - sending invites to known opponents not directly related to political opponents but with the intent to "tar with the same brush".

    http://m.adelaidenow.com.au/news/gillard-and-abbott-run-protest-gauntlet/story-e6frea6u-1226254435221

    And as I posted a not far above here, we have the time stamp on tweets from a senior SLAB activists who appears to have known in advance of what was going to happen.

    It is not "beyond a shadow of doubt proof" but it is some evidence for my claim. Where's yours that Clerkin has any involvement with the SNP.
    I'm not making a claim either way, but your 'proof' was at the least as nonsense as things you have derided. The lack of self awareness of that is what prompted my comment. You have provided assertions you present as incontrovertible evidence while you mock assertions others provide as evidence. I do not know the political terrain enough to judge who is correct, but the strength of your argument was nowhere near as strong as you claimed. Now you pull it back as though you did not make a statement presenting it as fact, that it was not beyond a shadow of doubt, but you initially had no such ambiguity present.

    I habitually and probably too often even qualify my assumptions as things are rarely so certain. Adding it in later doesn't work
  • DairDair Posts: 6,108

    Neil said:

    Smarmeron said:

    @Dair
    Excuse me judge Roy Bean? But all that proves is someone got wind that they were going to protest?

    He genuinely believes it. He really does. His belief system makes it impossible for any Nationalist to ever do anything that is misjudged or wrong. In the same way, it is literally unthinkable for any Nationalist claim or assertion to be incorrect. It is genuine fundamentalism.
    There's a classic of the genre at the bottom of the last thread.

    The Zinoviev letter?
    Ah humour bypass as well.

    Perhaps read the letter without the anti-SNP glasses. It's not "sharing conservative values". It's identifying areas of common interest. Probably risky. Maybe not. I personally think it was pretty dumb. It won;t damage the SNP but it might hurt her chances in East Ren.
This discussion has been closed.