It's interesting that we still occasionally get comments implying how almost all Tories are really overconfident about the result, when it seems to me that Labour supporters are in general making more assumptions that the result will fall their way. Which makes sense to me, I think it will to and don't know why there has been so much Labour pessimism around, but it's weird that the perception still remains to some extent that its the Tories (in general, not specific people) who are getting cocky.
Tbf, this site is full of overconfident Tories bar a few. It's the most pro-Conservative site I've ever been on - it's probably even more Tory than ConservativeHome, and that's saying something.The way many are talking you'd think the Tories were on for a 50+ majority!
Leaving aside all other knowledge of this election, it is interesting from this image on the BBC News web site of the three leaders that both Cameron and Clegg look defensive and slightly hurt, whereas Miliband looks aggressive. A reflection of their campaign styles?
IDK, Clegg has seemed the more punchy in this campaign as far as I can tell. Ed's had some moments like that, but on the whole I've thought he was making a Mr Super Reasonable and laid back sort of pitch.
Being in the States, very little of the minutiae of the election makes it here, save for what I read on the warping lens of PB.
FPT: A day today delivering a tonnage of leaflets, rather than direct voter contact. But I did get the first voter raising fears about gay marriage. Although it was not going to stop her changing her vote from LibDem last time to Tory this!
Met various other people switching the right way for us - either to Con from LibDem or from LibDem to Labour - both of which work for us Cons in Torbay! If that is indicative of any wider picture, then.....
Plus our phone calls checking on our postal vote pledges are showing they are absolutely rock solid in sending them back already. No slippage...
A Tory bullish about their chances in Torbay. Anyone else feeling all nostalgic?
It's interesting that we still occasionally get comments implying how almost all Tories are really overconfident about the result, when it seems to me that Labour supporters are in general making more assumptions that the result will fall their way. Which makes sense to me, I think it will to and don't know why there has been so much Labour pessimism around, but it's weird that the perception still remains to some extent that its the Tories (in general, not specific people) who are getting cocky.
Tbf, this site is full of overconfident Tories bar a few. It's the most pro-Conservative site I've ever been on - it's probably even more Tory than ConservativeHome, and that's saying something.The way many are talking you'd think the Tories were on for a 50+ majority!
There are numerous Tories on here who think they are going to lose. I see many more highly visible Tories one might think are therefore predicting a Tory majority, who are actually not. I believe the official prediction game has Tories most seats, but generally in line with polling predictions.
If anything, I think LDs are overrepresented, or at least people sympathetic to the LDs.
FPT: A day today delivering a tonnage of leaflets, rather than direct voter contact. But I did get the first voter raising fears about gay marriage. Although it was not going to stop her changing her vote from LibDem last time to Tory this!
Met various other people switching the right way for us - either to Con from LibDem or from LibDem to Labour - both of which work for us Cons in Torbay! If that is indicative of any wider picture, then.....
Plus our phone calls checking on our postal vote pledges are showing they are absolutely rock solid in sending them back already. No slippage...
A Tory bullish about their chances in Torbay. Anyone else feeling all nostalgic?
Any predictions for the Green result?
1 seat.
Pretty much the prediction I would have given at any stage over the course of this Parliament.
FPT: A day today delivering a tonnage of leaflets, rather than direct voter contact. But I did get the first voter raising fears about gay marriage. Although it was not going to stop her changing her vote from LibDem last time to Tory this!
Met various other people switching the right way for us - either to Con from LibDem or from LibDem to Labour - both of which work for us Cons in Torbay! If that is indicative of any wider picture, then.....
Plus our phone calls checking on our postal vote pledges are showing they are absolutely rock solid in sending them back already. No slippage...
A Tory bullish about their chances in Torbay. Anyone else feeling all nostalgic?
I reckon Clegg's named poll is a good pointer that Sanders will hold, unfortunately for Kevin.
I don't know why we even bother...we all know it what it will be (and if it isn't it will be back to that the next day).
No sulking, we all know that the PB Tories were expecting a 2% lead tonight in which case YouGov would have been cheered to the rafters!
Seriously though it is going to be very interesting to see what the final phone polls say this week - if they still have 4%+ Tory leads they could be in for a good night, but if those polls narrow towards the online polls then it's going to be tight and we can probably conclude that the "Edstone" was not the tipping point/ "Sheffield Rally" moment that the majority on here have claimed it would be.
Why would I be sulking?
And I made no claims about tonights polls or any mention of Ed Stone being his Sheffield Rally moment.
I was making a general point about PB Tories not you in particular, although saying 'why bother' with Yougov when it shows the Tories losing their lead does come across as a little sulky but if it wasn't accept please my apologies
Just watching last Friday's HIGNFY, do you think that Ian Hislop has the self awareness to realize he is now a stalwart of the establishment he has made a living fighting against?
Amazing put down mate. They should hire you at Tory HQ. Might be able to land a blow on Miliband in a way they haven't so far.
But but but EDSTONE wah wah wah
You can count on one hand people who thought the Edstone would change things. It was just the first and only amusing diversion of the campaign to date and so much welcomed.
It is worth noting that if you are not an avowed anti-Tory you do run the risk of being labelled as a PBTory by default, even if you've never voted Tory in your life, even at a Euro or local election, which might go someway to explaining the disconnect between how Tory people think things are around here.
FPT: A day today delivering a tonnage of leaflets, rather than direct voter contact. But I did get the first voter raising fears about gay marriage. Although it was not going to stop her changing her vote from LibDem last time to Tory this!
Met various other people switching the right way for us - either to Con from LibDem or from LibDem to Labour - both of which work for us Cons in Torbay! If that is indicative of any wider picture, then.....
Plus our phone calls checking on our postal vote pledges are showing they are absolutely rock solid in sending them back already. No slippage...
A Tory bullish about their chances in Torbay. Anyone else feeling all nostalgic?
Any predictions for the Green result?
1 seat.
Pretty much the prediction I would have given at any stage over the course of this Parliament.
I don't know why we even bother...we all know it what it will be (and if it isn't it will be back to that the next day).
No sulking, we all know that the PB Tories were expecting a 2% lead tonight in which case YouGov would have been cheered to the rafters!
Seriously though it is going to be very interesting to see what the final phone polls say this week - if they still have 4%+ Tory leads they could be in for a good night, but if those polls narrow towards the online polls then it's going to be tight and we can probably conclude that the "Edstone" was not the tipping point/ "Sheffield Rally" moment that the majority on here have claimed it would be.
Why would I be sulking?
And I made no claims about tonights polls or any mention of Ed Stone being his Sheffield Rally moment.
I was making a general point about PB Tories not you in particular, although saying 'why bother' with Yougov when it shows the Tories losing their lead does come across as a little sulky but if it wasn't accept please my apologies
#1) not a PB Tory.
#2) It is kinda of jokey, because we all sit here F5'ing for YouGov every night and for 3 months it has basically been the same....we all know loads of people are at 10.29pm every night...and we will be here again tomorrow as well doing exactly the same.
It's interesting that we still occasionally get comments implying how almost all Tories are really overconfident about the result, when it seems to me that Labour supporters are in general making more assumptions that the result will fall their way. Which makes sense to me, I think it will to and don't know why there has been so much Labour pessimism around, but it's weird that the perception still remains to some extent that its the Tories (in general, not specific people) who are getting cocky.
Does any Labour supporter think that they will win a majority? Realistically the only hope is for more seats, but that is no where near enough to form a government.
Ditto for the Cons. This looks like the election without a winner.
I sense panic at Miliband HQ he knows he is going to lose
With all due respect I think the Murdoch press would be the last source to trust with any headlines they come out with on "Labour's secret plans" 3 days ahead of a general election. Most people will see it for what it is, another attempt by Rupert to try to install a UK government that suits his purpose.
FPT: A day today delivering a tonnage of leaflets, rather than direct voter contact. But I did get the first voter raising fears about gay marriage. Although it was not going to stop her changing her vote from LibDem last time to Tory this!
Met various other people switching the right way for us - either to Con from LibDem or from LibDem to Labour - both of which work for us Cons in Torbay! If that is indicative of any wider picture, then.....
Plus our phone calls checking on our postal vote pledges are showing they are absolutely rock solid in sending them back already. No slippage...
A Tory bullish about their chances in Torbay. Anyone else feeling all nostalgic?
Any predictions for the Green result?
1 seat.
Pretty much the prediction I would have given at any stage over the course of this Parliament.
Do you want my bank details now or on Friday?
Actually I'm inconveniently out of the country from Thursday. If I'm slow to be in touch about paying losses on GE bets it's not that I've done a runner, I will be back next week!Mind you I dont expect to lose to you...
It's interesting that we still occasionally get comments implying how almost all Tories are really overconfident about the result, when it seems to me that Labour supporters are in general making more assumptions that the result will fall their way. Which makes sense to me, I think it will to and don't know why there has been so much Labour pessimism around, but it's weird that the perception still remains to some extent that its the Tories (in general, not specific people) who are getting cocky.
Does any Labour supporter think that they will win a majority? Realistically the only hope is for more seats, but that is no where near enough to form a government.
Ditto for the Cons. This looks like the election without a winner.
By 'result will fall their way' I mean that the coalition/deal mathematics will favour Labour, which I find hard to dispute. Personally I was predicting a Labour majority about 2.5 months ago, but I don't know if even Labour supporters are now.
LABOUR are not paying their security guards the Living Wage despite demanding other employers stump up.
Uniformed officers who oversee the party’s Newcastle base earn less than £7.85 an hour, the minimum figure experts say workers outside London need to get by.
Just watching last Friday's HIGNFY, do you think that Ian Hislop has the self awareness to realize he is now a stalwart of the establishment he has made a living fighting against?
I'm not a regular reader of PrivateEye, but I always felt such works to be gentle teasing with the occasional bit of more cutting comment from within the establishment rather than fighting against it. Maybe that's unfair of me.
FPT: A day today delivering a tonnage of leaflets, rather than direct voter contact. But I did get the first voter raising fears about gay marriage. Although it was not going to stop her changing her vote from LibDem last time to Tory this!
Met various other people switching the right way for us - either to Con from LibDem or from LibDem to Labour - both of which work for us Cons in Torbay! If that is indicative of any wider picture, then.....
Plus our phone calls checking on our postal vote pledges are showing they are absolutely rock solid in sending them back already. No slippage...
A Tory bullish about their chances in Torbay. Anyone else feeling all nostalgic?
Any predictions for the Green result?
1 seat.
Pretty much the prediction I would have given at any stage over the course of this Parliament.
Do you want my bank details now or on Friday?
Actually I'm inconveniently out of the country from Thursday. If I'm slow to be in touch about paying losses on GE bets it's not that I've done a runner, I will be back next week!Mind you I dont expect to lose to you...
I'm not expecting to win that one, there was a period for a few weeks, when it started looking like a nailed on winner, and I even donated to the Greens, so they could put up candidates.
Amazing put down mate. They should hire you at Tory HQ. Might be able to land a blow on Miliband in a way they haven't so far.
But but but EDSTONE wah wah wah
You can count on one hand people who thought the Edstone would change things. It was just the first and only amusing diversion of the campaign to date and so much welcomed.
It will. Remember, the whole point about Sheffield was that it didn't show up in the polling at all.
Amazing put down mate. They should hire you at Tory HQ. Might be able to land a blow on Miliband in a way they haven't so far.
But but but EDSTONE wah wah wah
You can count on one hand people who thought the Edstone would change things. It was just the first and only amusing diversion of the campaign to date and so much welcomed.
I know that was your view but I think their is a little rewriting history going on here - did not George Osborne himself tweet "Sheffield Rally moment" ?
The Conservative Party’s oldest think tank, the Bow Group, has endorsed UKIP in seats the Tories cannot win. The Bow Group’s chairman, Ben Harris-Quinney, made the announcement in an email to the group’s 10,000 members on Monday.
It's interesting that we still occasionally get comments implying how almost all Tories are really overconfident about the result, when it seems to me that Labour supporters are in general making more assumptions that the result will fall their way. Which makes sense to me, I think it will to and don't know why there has been so much Labour pessimism around, but it's weird that the perception still remains to some extent that its the Tories (in general, not specific people) who are getting cocky.
Tbf, this site is full of overconfident Tories bar a few. It's the most pro-Conservative site I've ever been on - it's probably even more Tory than ConservativeHome, and that's saying something.The way many are talking you'd think the Tories were on for a 50+ majority!
There are numerous Tories on here who think they are going to lose. I see many more highly visible Tories one might think are therefore predicting a Tory majority, who are actually not. I believe the official prediction game has Tories most seats, but generally in line with polling predictions.
If anything, I think LDs are overrepresented, or at least people sympathetic to the LDs.
Beyond you, and Bob_Sykes I can't recall other pessimistic Tories, although I'll take your word for it. I actually think more people on this site are sympathetic towards Clegg, rather than the LDs in general!.
Amazing put down mate. They should hire you at Tory HQ. Might be able to land a blow on Miliband in a way they haven't so far.
But but but EDSTONE wah wah wah
You can count on one hand people who thought the Edstone would change things. It was just the first and only amusing diversion of the campaign to date and so much welcomed.
I know that was your view but I think their is a little rewriting history going on here - did not George Osborne himself tweet "Sheffield Rally moment" ?
I had assumed it was a dig at the commentary on here, which mentioned it a little (usually with a question mark), but overwhelmingly was of the view it was amusing, but not game changing, even if many thought it more symbolic of Ed's weaknesses than I personally would say. Wider world? If you say so, I only saw a few pieces to that effect but perhaps I unconsciously gravitate away from the sort of punditry that would run that extreme Plus since I don't use Twitter, I have no idea what people are saying on it.
FPT: A day today delivering a tonnage of leaflets, rather than direct voter contact. But I did get the first voter raising fears about gay marriage. Although it was not going to stop her changing her vote from LibDem last time to Tory this!
Met various other people switching the right way for us - either to Con from LibDem or from LibDem to Labour - both of which work for us Cons in Torbay! If that is indicative of any wider picture, then.....
Plus our phone calls checking on our postal vote pledges are showing they are absolutely rock solid in sending them back already. No slippage...
Torbay is one of the very few constituencies offering free money by backing the LiDems at 11/10 with bet365 and at Evens with Betfair Sportsbook. OK, it only produces a 2.3% profit on the combined stake, but that's better than a poke in the eye, etc.
LABOUR are not paying their security guards the Living Wage despite demanding other employers stump up.
Uniformed officers who oversee the party’s Newcastle base earn less than £7.85 an hour, the minimum figure experts say workers outside London need to get by.
Getting desperate now. Wednesdays Front Page for The Scum - Cleaner in West Brom Labour club paid less than living wage and unpaid for twenty minutes overtime.
The Conservative Party’s oldest think tank, the Bow Group, has endorsed UKIP in seats the Tories cannot win. The Bow Group’s chairman, Ben Harris-Quinney, made the announcement in an email to the group’s 10,000 members on Monday.
Time to come off the fence. Here are my predictions:
Turnout 68%
Con 36% Lab 32% LD 11% UKIP 10% Green 4% SNP 4% Other (inc Plaid) 3%
Seats:
Con 295 Lab 258 LD 22 SNP 48 UKIP 3 PC 3 Respect 1 Green 1 NI 18 Speaker 1
Next government: Chaotic and weak Con minority, which won't last long.
I've been thinking 36/32 for quite a while - agree it leaves Cam a bit short of anything meaningful.
Chaotic government apart, that would be a fine result for the Tories, since that most of the lost LB vote is supposed to have gone to Labour and most of the UKIP vote is perceived to be coming from CON.
It's interesting that we still occasionally get comments implying how almost all Tories are really overconfident about the result, when it seems to me that Labour supporters are in general making more assumptions that the result will fall their way. Which makes sense to me, I think it will to and don't know why there has been so much Labour pessimism around, but it's weird that the perception still remains to some extent that its the Tories (in general, not specific people) who are getting cocky.
Tbf, this site is full of overconfident Tories bar a few. It's the most pro-Conservative site I've ever been on - it's probably even more Tory than ConservativeHome, and that's saying something.The way many are talking you'd think the Tories were on for a 50+ majority!
There are numerous Tories on here who think they are going to lose. I see many more highly visible Tories one might think are therefore predicting a Tory majority, who are actually not. I believe the official prediction game has Tories most seats, but generally in line with polling predictions.
If anything, I think LDs are overrepresented, or at least people sympathetic to the LDs.
Beyond you, and Bob_Sykes I can't recall other pessimistic Tories, although I'll take your word for it. I actually think more people on this site are sympathetic towards Clegg, rather than the LDs in general!.
I am sure the pessimistic Tories can make themselves known, but I am not actually one of them. I've never voted Tory; though I lean more instinctively toward them than Labour (I've always presumed as a result of living all my life in Tory heartlands), I'm not fearing a Labour win either, or Ed M being PM. If he is egregiously worse than any other PM, it'll be because the situation he'll have to confront is politically much more complicated than others have faced.
Does any Labour supporter think that they will win a majority? Realistically the only hope is for more seats, but that is no where near enough to form a government.
Ditto for the Cons. This looks like the election without a winner.
I won't join in the hubris fest on the thread, since I think it's genuinely hard to predict vote shares and the resulting seat changes, but the basic difference between the position of the main parties is that there is likely to be a clear majority against the Conservatives and it's unlikely there will be one against Labour. That applies whether the result is 34-36 or 36-34 or any other plausible outcome.
LABOUR are not paying their security guards the Living Wage despite demanding other employers stump up.
Uniformed officers who oversee the party’s Newcastle base earn less than £7.85 an hour, the minimum figure experts say workers outside London need to get by.
Getting desperate now. Wednesdays Front Page for The Scum - Cleaner in West Brom Labour club paid less than living wage and unpaid for twenty minutes overtime.
For real desperation please read the posts of one IOS.
Bristol West Devon North Portsmouth South Bath Colchester Ceredigion Orkney & Shetland Carshalton & Wallington Hazel Grove Leeds North West Lewes Kingston & Surbiton Norfolk North Sheffield Hallam Southport Thornbury & Yate Twickenham Westmorland & Lonsdale Yeovil
These are the 19 LD wins , I get. Note it includes Bristol West - a certain loss ! By the way, on pure E&W swing, Hallam is very comfortable. In reality, we do not know.
Bristol West Devon North Portsmouth South Bath Colchester Ceredigion Orkney & Shetland Carshalton & Wallington Hazel Grove Leeds North West Lewes Kingston & Surbiton Norfolk North Sheffield Hallam Southport Thornbury & Yate Twickenham Westmorland & Lonsdale Yeovil
These are the 19 LD wins , I get. Note it includes Bristol West - a certain loss ! By the way, on pure E&W swing, Hallam is very comfortable. In reality, we do not know.
The LibDems won't win Portsmouth South. I don't they'll even be second.
Bristol West Devon North Portsmouth South Bath Colchester Ceredigion Orkney & Shetland Carshalton & Wallington Hazel Grove Leeds North West Lewes Kingston & Surbiton Norfolk North Sheffield Hallam Southport Thornbury & Yate Twickenham Westmorland & Lonsdale Yeovil
These are the 19 LD wins , I get. Note it includes Bristol West - a certain loss ! By the way, on pure E&W swing, Hallam is very comfortable. In reality, we do not know.
They may well lose Ceredigion and Bath too.
They'll win Cambridge, mind. And Southwark.
And they'll win two of Birmingham Yardley, Bradford East, Cardiff Central, and Hornsey and Wood Green.
Bristol West Devon North Portsmouth South Bath Colchester Ceredigion Orkney & Shetland Carshalton & Wallington Hazel Grove Leeds North West Lewes Kingston & Surbiton Norfolk North Sheffield Hallam Southport Thornbury & Yate Twickenham Westmorland & Lonsdale Yeovil
These are the 19 LD wins , I get. Note it includes Bristol West - a certain loss ! By the way, on pure E&W swing, Hallam is very comfortable. In reality, we do not know.
Does any Labour supporter think that they will win a majority? Realistically the only hope is for more seats, but that is no where near enough to form a government.
Ditto for the Cons. This looks like the election without a winner.
I won't join in the hubris fest on the thread, since I think it's genuinely hard to predict vote shares and the resulting seat changes, but the basic difference between the position of the main parties is that there is likely to be a clear majority against the Conservatives and it's unlikely there will be one against Labour.
Surely there will be clear majorities against both - it's just that Labour can negotiate more allies to get around that; while it's hard to envisage those potential allies abstaining or voting against Labour, they should not be counted as automatically counting for Labour even so.
At the end of the day the Tories have few potential allies, those they have are not certain allies, and of those the biggest potential ally is going to lose a lot of seats. Therefore, unless as a bare minimum the Tories lose net 0-10 seats, they probably cannot even get to the effective majority level of 323 even if things go well for them and their allies have enough seats to get to that and are willing to deal.
Personally I think 290 is too high an estimate for the Conservatives, but it's still only at the upper end of the range of the forecasts, so definitely hard to achieve.
Bristol West Devon North Portsmouth South Bath Colchester Ceredigion Orkney & Shetland Carshalton & Wallington Hazel Grove Leeds North West Lewes Kingston & Surbiton Norfolk North Sheffield Hallam Southport Thornbury & Yate Twickenham Westmorland & Lonsdale Yeovil
These are the 19 LD wins , I get. Note it includes Bristol West - a certain loss ! By the way, on pure E&W swing, Hallam is very comfortable. In reality, we do not know.
They may well lose Ceredigion and Bath too.
They'll win Cambridge, mind. And Southwark.
And they'll win two of Birmingham Yardley, Bradford East, Cardiff Central, and Hornsey and Wood Green.
I think they’ll hold Ceredigion (as the Plaid Cymru and Labour candidates had an unseemly role about English incomers).
Time to come off the fence. Here are my predictions:
Turnout 68%
Con 36% Lab 32% LD 11% UKIP 10% Green 4% SNP 4% Other (inc Plaid) 3%
Seats:
Con 295 Lab 258 LD 22 SNP 48 UKIP 3 PC 3 Respect 1 Green 1 NI 18 Speaker 1
Next government: Chaotic and weak Con minority, which won't last long.
Thanks Richard - as someone with one of the most astute brains on PB.com that's very interesting and in fact corresponds quite closely with JackW's latest forecast. It may not be great for the Tories, but it's worse, a lot worse for both Labour and the LibDems and probably the very best those of us on the blue team could possibly hope for.
Amazing put down mate. They should hire you at Tory HQ. Might be able to land a blow on Miliband in a way they haven't so far.
But but but EDSTONE wah wah wah
You can count on one hand people who thought the Edstone would change things. It was just the first and only amusing diversion of the campaign to date and so much welcomed.
I know that was your view but I think their is a little rewriting history going on here - did not George Osborne himself tweet "Sheffield Rally moment" ?
I had assumed it was a dig at the commentary on here, which mentioned it a little (usually with a question mark), but overwhelmingly was of the view it was amusing, but not game changing, even if many thought it more symbolic of Ed's weaknesses than I personally would say. Wider world? If you say so, I only saw a few pieces to that effect but perhaps I unconsciously gravitate away from the sort of punditry that would run that extreme Plus since I don't use Twitter, I have no idea what people are saying on it.
I don't get this at all. The point of the Sheffield rally effect was that it kicked in on polling day and was invisible in the intervening nine days. But even if we expected it to show up in the polls, one Yougov isn't really enough to establish that it hasn't, is it?
More generally as an optimistic Tory I have to clarify that that optimism never extends to dreams of a majority; that would be silly. I just think ed is appreciably more fecked than he looked 48 hours ago.
FPT: A day today delivering a tonnage of leaflets, rather than direct voter contact. But I did get the first voter raising fears about gay marriage. Although it was not going to stop her changing her vote from LibDem last time to Tory this!
Met various other people switching the right way for us - either to Con from LibDem or from LibDem to Labour - both of which work for us Cons in Torbay! If that is indicative of any wider picture, then.....
Plus our phone calls checking on our postal vote pledges are showing they are absolutely rock solid in sending them back already. No slippage...
A Tory bullish about their chances in Torbay. Anyone else feeling all nostalgic?
We can talk about previous optimistic assessments about Torbay later. I do know though that this time we have done far more work, for longer, and with greater coverage of the constituency than was done last time. Will it pay off? Dunno. But then the Torbay LibDems don't know if they will hold it either, I am told.....
But if you want an incentive to turn out every day, it's a great knife-edge constituency to work!
LABOUR are not paying their security guards the Living Wage despite demanding other employers stump up.
Uniformed officers who oversee the party’s Newcastle base earn less than £7.85 an hour, the minimum figure experts say workers outside London need to get by.
Getting desperate now. Wednesdays Front Page for The Scum - Cleaner in West Brom Labour club paid less than living wage and unpaid for twenty minutes overtime.
Amazing put down mate. They should hire you at Tory HQ. Might be able to land a blow on Miliband in a way they haven't so far.
But but but EDSTONE wah wah wah
You can count on one hand people who thought the Edstone would change things. It was just the first and only amusing diversion of the campaign to date and so much welcomed.
I know that was your view but I think their is a little rewriting history going on here - did not George Osborne himself tweet "Sheffield Rally moment" ?
I had assumed it was a dig at the commentary on here, which mentioned it a little (usually with a question mark), but overwhelmingly was of the view it was amusing, but not game changing, even if many thought it more symbolic of Ed's weaknesses than I personally would say. Wider world? If you say so, I only saw a few pieces to that effect but perhaps I unconsciously gravitate away from the sort of punditry that would run that extreme Plus since I don't use Twitter, I have no idea what people are saying on it.
I don't get this at all. The point of the Sheffield rally effect was that it kicked in on polling day and was invisible in the intervening nine days
As someone not politically aware in 1992, my impression was that people referring to the moment meant there was an instant reaction, but your explanation clarifies things much better for me, given as I do know it was still a surprise when Major won.
Unlike some on this site I think that Richards is a fine journalist. However I think it is difficult for him to regale any longer about the "Tory press" when The Independent is now part of it!
FPT: A day today delivering a tonnage of leaflets, rather than direct voter contact. But I did get the first voter raising fears about gay marriage. Although it was not going to stop her changing her vote from LibDem last time to Tory this!
Met various other people switching the right way for us - either to Con from LibDem or from LibDem to Labour - both of which work for us Cons in Torbay! If that is indicative of any wider picture, then.....
Plus our phone calls checking on our postal vote pledges are showing they are absolutely rock solid in sending them back already. No slippage...
A Tory bullish about their chances in Torbay. Anyone else feeling all nostalgic?
We can talk about previous optimistic assessments about Torbay later. I do know though that this time we have done far more work, for longer, and with greater coverage of the constituency than was done last time. Will it pay off? Dunno. But then the Torbay LibDems don't know if they will hold it either, I am told.....
But if you want an incentive to turn out every day, it's a great knife-edge constituency to work!
Tories should win Torbay now. But we don't know how good the LD defence is.
I am sure the pessimistic Tories can make themselves known, but I am not actually one of them. I've never voted Tory; though I lean more instinctively toward them than Labour (I've always presumed as a result of living all my life in Tory heartlands), I'm not fearing a Labour win either, or Ed M being PM. If he is egregiously worse than any other PM, it'll be because the situation he'll have to confront is politically much more complicated than others have faced.
I stand corrected. Right now I'm not too fearful of the Tories as the largest party, as the worst excesses will largely be constrained because of the parliamentary arithmetic. My worst scenario, would be Con-Ukip-Dup coalition, although I doubt that could work due to the numbers!
There are at least five constituencies on @surbiton's list I'd expect the LibDems to lose. And probably five others is expect them to hold. I think his 19 is probably about right, but I think he misses conservative voters voting tactically for LibDems.
Time stamp shows this was posted at 10:55am. Murphy didn't arrive at St Enoch's Square until roughly 11:15. Clearly Hothersall was pre-informed of the invitation to Clerkin and the set up.
First posts from journalists start showing up on twitter around 11:25
FPT: A day today delivering a tonnage of leaflets, rather than direct voter contact. But I did get the first voter raising fears about gay marriage. Although it was not going to stop her changing her vote from LibDem last time to Tory this!
Met various other people switching the right way for us - either to Con from LibDem or from LibDem to Labour - both of which work for us Cons in Torbay! If that is indicative of any wider picture, then.....
Plus our phone calls checking on our postal vote pledges are showing they are absolutely rock solid in sending them back already. No slippage...
A Tory bullish about their chances in Torbay. Anyone else feeling all nostalgic?
We can talk about previous optimistic assessments about Torbay later. I do know though that this time we have done far more work, for longer, and with greater coverage of the constituency than was done last time. Will it pay off? Dunno. But then the Torbay LibDems don't know if they will hold it either, I am told.....
But if you want an incentive to turn out every day, it's a great knife-edge constituency to work!
It is worth noting that if you are not an avowed anti-Tory you do run the risk of being labelled as a PBTory by default, even if you've never voted Tory in your life, even at a Euro or local election, which might go someway to explaining the disconnect between how Tory people think things are around here.
There is a strong partisan element to the comments and the sources that are relied on. Rarely do we hear about more Labour-type topics such as the NHS which normal voters discuss. Discussion is instead typically about the latest Labour policy/gaffe (considered the same thing around here, from non-doms to rent controls to Islamophobia to Edstone), tweeted by the bankrupt drink-driver or his little Tory chums, which is reinforced by the latest insights of the Murdoch press into what Labour is thinking, and so on. So when discussion is between today's Tory meme and disagreement with that meme, the site naturally appears like a Tory site to the casual onlooker (and that is indeed how it is considered by onlookers!).
There are at least five constituencies on @surbiton's list I'd expect the LibDems to lose. And probably five others is expect them to hold. I think his 19 is probably about right, but I think he misses conservative voters voting tactically for LibDems.
Hornsey and Wood Green and Birmingham Yardley could well be holds. Bristol West is long gone and I don't believe the effect of the name "David Ward" is big enough in Bradford East. I think if a Respect candidate had run there he'd have a really big chance.
It is worth noting that if you are not an avowed anti-Tory you do run the risk of being labelled as a PBTory by default, even if you've never voted Tory in your life, even at a Euro or local election, which might go someway to explaining the disconnect between how Tory people think things are around here.
There is a strong partisan element to the comments and the sources that are relied on.
On the internet? I'm astonished.
I for one would welcome more Labour memes and content. Although given the not infrequent complaints about anti-Tory thread headers, curious the comments skew more Tory.
FPT: A day today delivering a tonnage of leaflets, rather than direct voter contact. But I did get the first voter raising fears about gay marriage. Although it was not going to stop her changing her vote from LibDem last time to Tory this!
Met various other people switching the right way for us - either to Con from LibDem or from LibDem to Labour - both of which work for us Cons in Torbay! If that is indicative of any wider picture, then.....
Plus our phone calls checking on our postal vote pledges are showing they are absolutely rock solid in sending them back already. No slippage...
A Tory bullish about their chances in Torbay. Anyone else feeling all nostalgic?
We can talk about previous optimistic assessments about Torbay later. I do know though that this time we have done far more work, for longer, and with greater coverage of the constituency than was done last time. Will it pay off? Dunno. But then the Torbay LibDems don't know if they will hold it either, I am told.....
But if you want an incentive to turn out every day, it's a great knife-edge constituency to work!
MM - I sense from your latest briefing from Torbay that you are slightly less hopeful than previously, when you sounded genuinely optimistic. Tonight you appear to view it as an absolute toss-up.
Actual seat numbers hard to predict but im backing tory minority gov at 9/2 and labour minority at 2/1. I just dont see the numbers making a formal coalition worthwhile to either party.
@Dair Excuse me judge Roy Bean? But all that proves is someone got wind that they were going to protest?
There is an interesting difference to the burden of proof apparently required to prove SNP aligned actions vs Unionist allied actions. Surprising no-one.
Time stamp shows this was posted at 10:55am. Murphy didn't arrive at St Enoch's Square until roughly 11:15. Clearly Hothersall was pre-informed of the invitation to Clerkin and the set up.
First posts from journalists start showing up on twitter around 11:25
Ha, ha. Desperate stuff. You really do believe this. It is extraordinary.
Time to come off the fence. Here are my predictions:
Turnout 68%
Con 36% Lab 32% LD 11% UKIP 10% Green 4% SNP 4% Other (inc Plaid) 3%
Seats:
Con 295 Lab 258 LD 22 SNP 48 UKIP 3 PC 3 Respect 1 Green 1 NI 18 Speaker 1
Next government: Chaotic and weak Con minority, which won't last long.
Interesting. You appear by necessary implication to be predicting a confidence and supply arrangement between the Tories and the LibDems, with UKIP and Northern Ireland Unionists abstaining at the very least on such votes. There would also be the possibility of passing an EU Referendum Bill even if the Lib Dems were opposed to it. 295 Conservatives (minus 1 Deputy Speaker), 3 UKIP + 10 Northern Ireland Unionists = 307. Such a Bill could pass with the support of 14 Labour rebels.
@Dair Excuse me judge Roy Bean? But all that proves is someone got wind that they were going to protest?
No it means the editor of LabourHame who was not at the event, knew in advance, before any journalist posted any tweet and before Murphy/Izzard arrived at the Square that Clerkin was going to be there and something was going to kick off.
@Dair Excuse me judge Roy Bean? But all that proves is someone got wind that they were going to protest?
He genuinely believes it. He really does. His belief system makes it impossible for any Nationalist to ever do anything that is misjudged or wrong. In the same way, it is literally unthinkable for any Nationalist claim or assertion to be incorrect. It is genuine fundamentalism.
There would also be the possibility of passing an EU Referendum Bill even if the Lib Dems were opposed to it. 295 Conservatives (minus 1 Deputy Speaker), 3 UKIP + 10 Northern Ireland Unionists = 307. Such a Bill could pass with the support of 14 Labour rebels.
Someone at the Square phoned him saying that some bangers were armed with banners, and loud hailers, and named names? Stop trying to make up evidence that doesn't exit. A bunch of yobs heckled a political event, it happens all the time.
@Dair Excuse me judge Roy Bean? But all that proves is someone got wind that they were going to protest?
There is an interesting difference to the burden of proof apparently required to prove SNP aligned actions vs Unionist allied actions. Surprising no-one.
There are at least four registered active political parties that support Independence. In addition there are dozens and dozens of active interest groups that support Independence. The membership of these groups is often discrete and in many cases there is very little of crossover (for example, virtually no RIC members will be SNP members).
The burden of proof that any activity of independence supporters or anti-SLAB activists are related to the SNP rests 100% with those making the claims.
I have provided evidence that today's activity in St Enoch Square was an orchestrated John McTernan stunt.
Here is an example of a John McTernan campaign doing exactly this - sending invites to known opponents not directly related to political opponents but with the intent to "tar with the same brush".
And as I posted a not far above here, we have the time stamp on tweets from a senior SLAB activists who appears to have known in advance of what was going to happen.
It is not "beyond a shadow of doubt proof" but it is some evidence for my claim. Where's yours that Clerkin has any involvement with the SNP.
@Dair Excuse me judge Roy Bean? But all that proves is someone got wind that they were going to protest?
No it means the editor of LabourHame who was not at the event, knew in advance, before any journalist posted any tweet and before Murphy/Izzard arrived at the Square that Clerkin was going to be there and something was going to kick off.
Because, as he has been explaining to your fellow fundamentalists, he read about on Twitter. I know you cannot compute that and genuinely believe Labour orchestrated it all, so this response is not for you it is for others who might be reading.
@Dair Excuse me judge Roy Bean? But all that proves is someone got wind that they were going to protest?
He genuinely believes it. He really does. His belief system makes it impossible for any Nationalist to ever do anything that is misjudged or wrong. In the same way, it is literally unthinkable for any Nationalist claim or assertion to be incorrect. It is genuine fundamentalism.
There's a classic of the genre at the bottom of the last thread.
There are at least five constituencies on @surbiton's list I'd expect the LibDems to lose. And probably five others is expect them to hold. I think his 19 is probably about right, but I think he misses conservative voters voting tactically for LibDems.
My list is not judgemental or based on local knowledge. It is the result of a purely statistical exercise. Based on UNS and based on tonight's Yougov figures. That's it.
@Dair Excuse me judge Roy Bean? But all that proves is someone got wind that they were going to protest?
He genuinely believes it. He really does. His belief system makes it impossible for any Nationalist to ever do anything that is misjudged or wrong. In the same way, it is literally unthinkable for any Nationalist claim or assertion to be incorrect. It is genuine fundamentalism.
There's a classic of the genre at the bottom of the last thread.
Someone at the Square phoned him saying that some bangers were armed with banners, and loud hailers, and named names? Stop trying to make up evidence that doesn't exit. A bunch of yobs heckled a political event, it happens all the time.
That's possible. If you really stretch your credulity.
There was a group of journalists waiting in the Square, they are likely to have had a couple of Labour handlers spinning them. Thats a pretty busy job for the spinner. You're actually suggesting that in the midst of trying to manage the media, those spinners stopped what they were doing and texted Hothersall is pretty testing for any reasonableness test.
Far more probable is that Hothersall knew in advance and tweeted before he was supposed to. Very possible if Murphy/Izzard were delayed on their walk down Buchanan Street
@Dair Excuse me judge Roy Bean? But all that proves is someone got wind that they were going to protest?
He genuinely believes it. He really does. His belief system makes it impossible for any Nationalist to ever do anything that is misjudged or wrong. In the same way, it is literally unthinkable for any Nationalist claim or assertion to be incorrect. It is genuine fundamentalism.
There's a classic of the genre at the bottom of the last thread.
@Dair Excuse me judge Roy Bean? But all that proves is someone got wind that they were going to protest?
No it means the editor of LabourHame who was not at the event, knew in advance, before any journalist posted any tweet and before Murphy/Izzard arrived at the Square that Clerkin was going to be there and something was going to kick off.
Because, as he has been explaining to your fellow fundamentalists, he read about on Twitter. I know you cannot compute that and genuinely believe Labour orchestrated it all, so this response is not for you it is for others who might be reading.
There;s nothing fundamentalist about automatically believing "SNP Bad" at every opportunity. Your closed mind clearly doesn't allow you to appreciate that any association of these flakes might be with one of perhaps 60 other pro-Independence groups which have nothing to do with the SNP. Or even nothing to do with pro-Independence and purely motivated by being anti-SLAB.
There would also be the possibility of passing an EU Referendum Bill even if the Lib Dems were opposed to it. 295 Conservatives (minus 1 Deputy Speaker), 3 UKIP + 10 Northern Ireland Unionists = 307. Such a Bill could pass with the support of 14 Labour rebels.
Caroline Lucas would vote for it too.
Galloway might back it as well. Assuming Cameron remains PM after the election, it appears he would have to resign or seek a dissolution if he did not get an EU Referendum Bill through Parliament in the first session. The number of pro-referendum MPs in the Commons after the election may therefore be of significance should, as is self-evidently possible, the Conservatives fail to win a majority.
@Dair Excuse me judge Roy Bean? But all that proves is someone got wind that they were going to protest?
There is an interesting difference to the burden of proof apparently required to prove SNP aligned actions vs Unionist allied actions. Surprising no-one.
There are at least four registered active political parties that support Independence. In addition there are dozens and dozens of active interest groups that support Independence. The membership of these groups is often discrete and in many cases there is very little of crossover (for example, virtually no RIC members will be SNP members).
The burden of proof that any activity of independence supporters or anti-SLAB activists are related to the SNP rests 100% with those making the claims.
I have provided evidence that today's activity in St Enoch Square was an orchestrated John McTernan stunt.
Here is an example of a John McTernan campaign doing exactly this - sending invites to known opponents not directly related to political opponents but with the intent to "tar with the same brush".
And as I posted a not far above here, we have the time stamp on tweets from a senior SLAB activists who appears to have known in advance of what was going to happen.
It is not "beyond a shadow of doubt proof" but it is some evidence for my claim. Where's yours that Clerkin has any involvement with the SNP.
I'm not making a claim either way, but your 'proof' was at the least as nonsense as things you have derided. The lack of self awareness of that is what prompted my comment. You have provided assertions you present as incontrovertible evidence while you mock assertions others provide as evidence. I do not know the political terrain enough to judge who is correct, but the strength of your argument was nowhere near as strong as you claimed. Now you pull it back as though you did not make a statement presenting it as fact, that it was not beyond a shadow of doubt, but you initially had no such ambiguity present.
I habitually and probably too often even qualify my assumptions as things are rarely so certain. Adding it in later doesn't work
@Dair Excuse me judge Roy Bean? But all that proves is someone got wind that they were going to protest?
He genuinely believes it. He really does. His belief system makes it impossible for any Nationalist to ever do anything that is misjudged or wrong. In the same way, it is literally unthinkable for any Nationalist claim or assertion to be incorrect. It is genuine fundamentalism.
There's a classic of the genre at the bottom of the last thread.
The Zinoviev letter?
Ah humour bypass as well.
Perhaps read the letter without the anti-SNP glasses. It's not "sharing conservative values". It's identifying areas of common interest. Probably risky. Maybe not. I personally think it was pretty dumb. It won;t damage the SNP but it might hurt her chances in East Ren.
Comments
According to Rods first model this had a 0.3% probability.
ALL HAIL THE SWINGBACK!
Use this as a guide to backing Conservatives in individual seats I reckon !
CORRECTION Tonight's YG is TWO DAYS FROM EICIPM
Once again, I expect an absolute loss of Lab votes, not a re-allocation of them. Where are you getting Con 37%?
Edit: "Are you drunk" was a rhetorical question - but you really are, aren't you?
Turnout 68%
Con 36%
Lab 32%
LD 11%
UKIP 10%
Green 4%
SNP 4%
Other (inc Plaid) 3%
Seats:
Con 295
Lab 258
LD 22
SNP 48
UKIP 3
PC 3
Respect 1
Green 1
NI 18
Speaker 1
Next government: Chaotic and weak Con minority, which won't last long.
Amazing put down mate. They should hire you at Tory HQ. Might be able to land a blow on Miliband in a way they haven't so far.
But but but EDSTONE wah wah wah
If anything, I think LDs are overrepresented, or at least people sympathetic to the LDs.
Pretty much the prediction I would have given at any stage over the course of this Parliament.
#2) It is kinda of jokey, because we all sit here F5'ing for YouGov every night and for 3 months it has basically been the same....we all know loads of people are at 10.29pm every night...and we will be here again tomorrow as well doing exactly the same.
Ditto for the Cons. This looks like the election without a winner.
Most people will see it for what it is, another attempt by Rupert to try to install a UK government that suits his purpose.
LABOUR are not paying their security guards the Living Wage despite demanding other employers stump up.
Uniformed officers who oversee the party’s Newcastle base earn less than £7.85 an hour, the minimum figure experts say workers outside London need to get by.
http://www.thesun.co.uk/sol/homepage/news/politics/6441277/Miliband-in-second-slave-labour-row.html
Con 32.99%, Lab 33.03%, LD 9.98%, UKIP, 11.98%, GRN 4.98%. Virtually identical to You gov.
This gives me E&W wide:
Con 35.5%, Lab 34.5%, LD 10.7%, UKIP, 13.4%, GRN 5.2%.
which, in turn, gives [ UNS ]
Con 266, Lab 281, LD 18, UKIP 3, GRN 1, PC 3, SPK 1 Total = 573
add: Scotland
Con 0, Lab 5, LD 1, SNP 53
Total on 04/05/15
Con 266, Lab 286, LD 19, UKIP 3, GRN 1, PC 3, SPK 1, SNP 53 Total = 632
You may not agree with the results because of your personal judgements.
Based on tonight's Yougov
But this is pure arithmentic [ UNS on E&W and Scotland separately ]
If BJO is reading this, you could be on to £600 mate !
The Conservative Party’s oldest think tank, the Bow Group, has endorsed UKIP in seats the Tories cannot win. The Bow Group’s chairman, Ben Harris-Quinney, made the announcement in an email to the group’s 10,000 members on Monday.
I sense you have never had to work in general security? It would be hard to find any "reputable" company that has decent rates.
I used to have clients in the sector
'OK. Even without the E&W details, I have input figures into my E&W model, and this what I get GB wide in %.'
Whatever makes you happy and calms you down a bit !
OK, it only produces a 2.3% profit on the combined stake, but that's better than a poke in the eye, etc.
Kellner then doesn't believe it because of his "professional reputation".
So, he manually adjusts the figures to come up with what he "thinks" it will be. Converging to the pollster's herd.
Where you could have questioned my analysis perfectly legitimately would have been the source.
The source is Yougov. And Yougov could be badly wrong !! Then the analysis would also be wrong.
But we don't know who is correct, do we ?
Chaotic government apart, that would be a fine result for the Tories, since that most of the lost LB vote is supposed to have gone to Labour and most of the UKIP vote is perceived to be coming from CON.
I know most of the crews that work the festivals and events, and I can assure you, it pays peanuts. (though sometimes the perks are worthwhile)
Looking forward to seeing many of you tomorrow!
Devon North
Portsmouth South
Bath
Colchester
Ceredigion
Orkney & Shetland
Carshalton & Wallington
Hazel Grove
Leeds North West
Lewes
Kingston & Surbiton
Norfolk North
Sheffield Hallam
Southport
Thornbury & Yate
Twickenham
Westmorland & Lonsdale
Yeovil
These are the 19 LD wins , I get. Note it includes Bristol West - a certain loss !
By the way, on pure E&W swing, Hallam is very comfortable. In reality, we do not know.
All that is now on Lab most seats effectively a free bet including the £100 last night at 6.0
http://press.labour.org.uk/post/118145085824/revealed-two-thirds-of-hospitals-face-swingeing
They'll win Cambridge, mind. And Southwark.
And they'll win two of Birmingham Yardley, Bradford East, Cardiff Central, and Hornsey and Wood Green.
Actually, your list is rubbish.
At the end of the day the Tories have few potential allies, those they have are not certain allies, and of those the biggest potential ally is going to lose a lot of seats. Therefore, unless as a bare minimum the Tories lose net 0-10 seats, they probably cannot even get to the effective majority level of 323 even if things go well for them and their allies have enough seats to get to that and are willing to deal.
Personally I think 290 is too high an estimate for the Conservatives, but it's still only at the upper end of the range of the forecasts, so definitely hard to achieve.
They are more likely to lose Brecon & Radnor.
It may not be great for the Tories, but it's worse, a lot worse for both Labour and the LibDems and probably the very best those of us on the blue team could possibly hope for.
More generally as an optimistic Tory I have to clarify that that optimism never extends to dreams of a majority; that would be silly. I just think ed is appreciably more fecked than he looked 48 hours ago.
But if you want an incentive to turn out every day, it's a great knife-edge constituency to work!
How did that song go ? Desperado !
Unlike some on this site I think that Richards is a fine journalist. However I think it is difficult for him to regale any longer about the "Tory press" when The Independent is now part of it!
Could a resignation be on the cards?
https://twitter.com/dhothersall/status/595164723185844224
Time stamp shows this was posted at 10:55am. Murphy didn't arrive at St Enoch's Square until roughly 11:15. Clearly Hothersall was pre-informed of the invitation to Clerkin and the set up.
First posts from journalists start showing up on twitter around 11:25
'Non issue
http://press.labour.org.uk/post/118145085824/revealed-two-thirds-of-hospitals-face-swingeing.
Strange they forgot to mention that many trusts are getting ripped off by Labour's PFI's and consequently struggling with their budgets.
Excuse me judge Roy Bean? But all that proves is someone got wind that they were going to protest?
I for one would welcome more Labour memes and content. Although given the not infrequent complaints about anti-Tory thread headers, curious the comments skew more Tory.
Night all.
'Forget all that, what about that cleaner in the West Brom Labour Club. Outrageous!!!!'
Are you still trying to sell plonk in Liverpool ?
Someone at the Square phoned him saying that some bangers were armed with banners, and loud hailers, and named names?
Stop trying to make up evidence that doesn't exit.
A bunch of yobs heckled a political event, it happens all the time.
The burden of proof that any activity of independence supporters or anti-SLAB activists are related to the SNP rests 100% with those making the claims.
I have provided evidence that today's activity in St Enoch Square was an orchestrated John McTernan stunt.
Here is an example of a John McTernan campaign doing exactly this - sending invites to known opponents not directly related to political opponents but with the intent to "tar with the same brush".
http://m.adelaidenow.com.au/news/gillard-and-abbott-run-protest-gauntlet/story-e6frea6u-1226254435221
And as I posted a not far above here, we have the time stamp on tweets from a senior SLAB activists who appears to have known in advance of what was going to happen.
It is not "beyond a shadow of doubt proof" but it is some evidence for my claim. Where's yours that Clerkin has any involvement with the SNP.
There was a group of journalists waiting in the Square, they are likely to have had a couple of Labour handlers spinning them. Thats a pretty busy job for the spinner. You're actually suggesting that in the midst of trying to manage the media, those spinners stopped what they were doing and texted Hothersall is pretty testing for any reasonableness test.
Far more probable is that Hothersall knew in advance and tweeted before he was supposed to. Very possible if Murphy/Izzard were delayed on their walk down Buchanan Street
I habitually and probably too often even qualify my assumptions as things are rarely so certain. Adding it in later doesn't work
Perhaps read the letter without the anti-SNP glasses. It's not "sharing conservative values". It's identifying areas of common interest. Probably risky. Maybe not. I personally think it was pretty dumb. It won;t damage the SNP but it might hurt her chances in East Ren.