politicalbetting
Home› General

Howdy, Stranger!

It looks like you're new here. Sign in or register to get started.

Sign In Register

Categories

politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Marf’s latest cartoon

SystemSystem Posts: 12,217
edited May 2015 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Marf’s latest cartoon

If you would like to purchase one of Marf’s prints or originals, please contact her here.

Read the full story here


«13

Comments

  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    I wondered why Ratty looked careworn. Then I remembered how heavy limestone is.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,533
    Miliband just making stuff about Tories Secret Plan again I see.

    https://twitter.com/suttonnick/status/595337567333134337
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,387
    Could Cameron admitting "defeat" like the reverse of Kinnocks victory rally?
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,328
    antifrank said:

    I wondered why Ratty looked careworn. Then I remembered how heavy limestone is.

    I do hope the limestone comes from Cumbria.
  • MikeKMikeK Posts: 9,053
    Yeh, poor Ratty. Whatever have you been doing to him Marf?
  • The_ApocalypseThe_Apocalypse Posts: 7,830
    The Mirror will back Labour, they aren't going to back the Tories or the LDs.

    Don't really see how Indy going against Labour is /that/ 'significant'. Now that we know their owner is a non-dom, and looking at Labour's policy on non-dom the situation there is pretty much similar to the Barclay Brothers agenda at the Telegraph. It gives Labour one less ally in the press, which increases Labour's uphill battle to get any kind of positive press coverage, but that's about it. I don't think the public take notice of who newspapers endorse, these days. I think we saw how limited newspaper influence was in the last election.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,975
    It's almost like the Tories have set up an elephant sized trap for Labour which Labour are desperate to walk into

    https://twitter.com/SkyNews/status/595338871442903041
  • notmenotme Posts: 3,293
    FPT:
    Dixie said:

    Another interesting day on the streets. Unless Labour are just tele-canvassing, then they are nowhere in SW London. The reds are spreading the word that their vote is not standing up. I don't know what that means but all the data I have got, the swing will be less than 1% Con to Lab.

    CCHQ are more gung ho and are on the attack rather than defence. I hope it is good judgement, I am sure it will be. Still on for 306 seats a la Jack W.

    Ive been accused of ramping.., I've said the same thing. Constituency wide canvassing in several seats has shown no swing away from cons, like for like on 2010.... Cons on 37% of national vote.
  • IOSIOS Posts: 1,450
    Not me - would you like a bet on this?
  • MikeKMikeK Posts: 9,053
    Tomorrow evening I will give my last forecast on UKIPs chances. ;)
  • john_zimsjohn_zims Posts: 3,399
    @nigel4england

    FPT

    'Why are you so bothered? Your ground game is going so well you will have a majority on Friday, why worry?'

    Maybe IOS met some real voters to - day ?
  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    MikeK said:

    Tomorrow evening I will give my last forecast on UKIPs chances. ;)

    3
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,044
    When are the polls due? We haven't had one for a while, surely?
  • NeilNeil Posts: 7,983
    Can someone repost the SNP love-letter to Tory voters again? It was such an enjoyable read.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,387
    Sun Politics @SunPolitics · 3s 3 seconds ago
    YouGov/Sun poll tonight - Labour and Tories are tied: CON 33%, LAB 33%, LD 10%, UKIP 12%, GRN 5%
  • DaemonBarberDaemonBarber Posts: 1,626
    GIN1138 said:

    Could Cameron admitting "defeat" like the reverse of Kinnocks victory rally?

    Do you mean it has the opposite effect, making it more attractive to vote Tory. Or do you mean that although the message was the inverse, that the effect will be the same?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,591
    DavidL said:

    Scott_P said:

    dr_spyn said:

    Sturgeon Tories will have no mandate to rule us - Telegraph Scotland.

    Showing an incredible lack of understanding of the UK constitutional settlement
    Yes but OTOH even as a Tory and a Unionist I still feel slightly uncomfortable with the determination to exclude the democratically elected representatives of Scotland from the governance of the United Kingdom no matter how idiotic we have been.
    Yes - what she means is that it would not be sensible for the Tories to attempt wholesale changes in Scotland in light of the electoral result, but that is admittedly not as punchy as what she said.
  • IOSIOS Posts: 1,450
    Yup - the Ed Stone really shifted those polls guys LOL!
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,415
    Neil said:

    Can someone repost the SNP love-letter to Tory voters again? It was such an enjoyable read.

    Oi ! That needs to be buried ASAP :)

    Several PBers have good money on the Nats !
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,533
    The_Apocalypse said:

    The Mirror will back Labour, they aren't going to back the Tories or the LDs.

    Don't really see how Indy going against Labour is /that/ 'significant'. Now that we know their owner is a non-dom, and looking at Labour's policy on non-dom the situation there is pretty much similar to the Barclay Brothers agenda at the Telegraph. It gives Labour one less ally in the press, which increases Labour's uphill battle to get any kind of positive press coverage, but that's about it. I don't think the public take notice of who newspapers endorse, these days. I think we saw how limited newspaper influence was in the last election.

    Given the Indy's minuscule circulation nobody will even notice what they have said, let alone change any minds.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,569
    CON - 33% (-1)
    LAB - 33% (-)
    UKIP - 12% (-)
    LDEM - 10% (+1)
    GRN - 5% (-)
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,387
    edited May 2015
    DaemonBarber said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Could Cameron admitting "defeat" like the reverse of Kinnocks victory rally?

    Do you mean it has the opposite effect, making it more attractive to vote Tory. Or do you mean that although the message was the inverse, that the effect will be the same?
    The former of course! :smiley:
  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    It's almost like the Tories have set up an elephant sized trap for Labour which Labour are desperate to walk into

    https://twitter.com/SkyNews/status/595338871442903041

    It is The Times for God's sake. Murdoch's poodle.
  • NeilNeil Posts: 7,983
    MikeK said:

    Tomorrow evening I will give my last forecast on UKIPs chances. ;)

    Give us a hint - do you foresee them winning a majority or not?
  • ProdicusProdicus Posts: 658
    As long as Labour has its media wing fully operational in Langham Place (biggest online 'news' *cough* presence in the ******* world) one or two fewer dead tree outlets onside won't be much of a concern.
  • Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    Lib Dem SURGE!
  • IOSIOS Posts: 1,450
    So sheffield rally yeah - thats all you guys have got?
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,533
    NickPalmer said:

    CON - 33% (-1)
    LAB - 33% (-)
    UKIP - 12% (-)
    LDEM - 10% (+1)
    GRN - 5% (-)

    I don't know why we even bother...we all know it what it will be (and if it isn't it will be back to that the next day).
  • TheKrakenAwakesTheKrakenAwakes Posts: 553
    UKIP being squeezed down and Lib Dems being squeezed up?
  • MP_SEMP_SE Posts: 3,642
    SeanT said:

    Apparently the independence referendum has gone from "once in a generation" to "once you do something we don't like."

    See. "If any Englishman slightly treads on a thistle we will call another referendum". http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2015/may/04/westminster-cuts-new-independence-vote-snp …

    You know what? Enough. Call the bluff. If Nationalist Scots are so desperate to leave, let them leave. Who gives. Goodbye. Go away, you screeching weirdos.

    So true. Literally the only person I have met who wanted them to remain in was someone from Scotland and he didn't even like Scotland hence why he was living in England.

    I would love to see some England only polling on whether Scotland should be given the boot.
  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    The_Apocalypse said:

    The Mirror will back Labour, they aren't going to back the Tories or the LDs.

    Don't really see how Indy going against Labour is /that/ 'significant'. Now that we know their owner is a non-dom, and looking at Labour's policy on non-dom the situation there is pretty much similar to the Barclay Brothers agenda at the Telegraph. It gives Labour one less ally in the press, which increases Labour's uphill battle to get any kind of positive press coverage, but that's about it. I don't think the public take notice of who newspapers endorse, these days. I think we saw how limited newspaper influence was in the last election.

    A combo of non-dom owner and that f*cking Rentoul, Blair's arselicker !
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,591
    FrancisUrquhart said:

    Miliband just making stuff about Tories Secret Plan again I see.

    htps://twitter.com/suttonnick/status/595337567333134337

    I know the actual story is talking about Ed's warning about Tory cuts, but given I expect Ed to win, my first reaction was that was very silly of him to admit such a drastic plan of his upfront.
  • StereotomyStereotomy Posts: 4,092
    FrancisUrquhart said:

    NickPalmer said:

    CON - 33% (-1)
    LAB - 33% (-)
    UKIP - 12% (-)
    LDEM - 10% (+1)
    GRN - 5% (-)

    I don't know why we even bother...we all know it what it will be (and if it isn't it will be back to that the next day).
    Anyone care to explain why this is actually Con 9% ahead?
  • IOSIOS Posts: 1,450
    So now only what 56 and a half hours to go to the polls open and its still Ed is PM in the polls.

    LOL at the Tory campaign,
  • DaemonBarberDaemonBarber Posts: 1,626
    FrancisUrquhart said:

    NickPalmer said:

    CON - 33% (-1)
    LAB - 33% (-)
    UKIP - 12% (-)
    LDEM - 10% (+1)
    GRN - 5% (-)

    I don't know why we even bother...we all know it what it will be (and if it isn't it will be back to that the next day).
    You gov have been remarkably static, have they not?
  • The_ApocalypseThe_Apocalypse Posts: 7,830
    edited May 2015
    I don't really see how Labour are going to be able to govern as a minority in the first place. Cameron will have the first crack at government, and it'll be only once that fails that Labour will get a chance to rule as a minority in the first place. I can't see Miliband being able to do this without support from the parliamentary party also; this isn't a Labour leadership election. But really, Miliband isn't the brightest tool in the box.

    And YG - this is why the election is still too close to call, although it is bank holiday polling.
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,328
    edited May 2015
    FrancisUrquhart said:

    The_Apocalypse said:

    The Mirror will back Labour, they aren't going to back the Tories or the LDs.

    Don't really see how Indy going against Labour is /that/ 'significant'. Now that we know their owner is a non-dom, and looking at Labour's policy on non-dom the situation there is pretty much similar to the Barclay Brothers agenda at the Telegraph. It gives Labour one less ally in the press, which increases Labour's uphill battle to get any kind of positive press coverage, but that's about it. I don't think the public take notice of who newspapers endorse, these days. I think we saw how limited newspaper influence was in the last election.

    Given the Indy's minuscule circulation nobody will even notice what they have said, let alone change any minds.
    It's a very long time since I even saw it on sale let alone anyone reading it. How the hell does it make money? Or is it just a vanity project for its owner?
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,533
    Stereotomy said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    NickPalmer said:

    CON - 33% (-1)
    LAB - 33% (-)
    UKIP - 12% (-)
    LDEM - 10% (+1)
    GRN - 5% (-)

    I don't know why we even bother...we all know it what it will be (and if it isn't it will be back to that the next day).
    Anyone care to explain why this is actually Con 9% ahead?
    ?
  • RodCrosbyRodCrosby Posts: 7,737
    Indy front page: 60% now support electoral reform...
  • StereotomyStereotomy Posts: 4,092
    SeanT said:

    Apparently the independence referendum has gone from "once in a generation" to "once you do something we don't like."

    See. "If any Englishman slightly treads on a thistle we will call another referendum". http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2015/may/04/westminster-cuts-new-independence-vote-snp …

    You know what? Enough. Call the bluff. If Nationalist Scots are so desperate to leave, let them leave. Who gives. Goodbye. Go away, you screeching weirdos.

    What if they vote against it again? Or are we not asking this time?
  • john_zimsjohn_zims Posts: 3,399
    @surbiton

    'A combo of non-dom owner and that f*cking Rentoul, Blair's arselicker !'


    Your even more flustered to - day, calm down dear it's bad for your health !
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,533
    edited May 2015
    Cyclefree said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    The_Apocalypse said:

    The Mirror will back Labour, they aren't going to back the Tories or the LDs.

    Don't really see how Indy going against Labour is /that/ 'significant'. Now that we know their owner is a non-dom, and looking at Labour's policy on non-dom the situation there is pretty much similar to the Barclay Brothers agenda at the Telegraph. It gives Labour one less ally in the press, which increases Labour's uphill battle to get any kind of positive press coverage, but that's about it. I don't think the public take notice of who newspapers endorse, these days. I think we saw how limited newspaper influence was in the last election.

    Given the Indy's minuscule circulation nobody will even notice what they have said, let alone change any minds.
    It's a very long time since I even saw it on sale let alone anyone reading it. How the hell does it make money? Or is it just a vanity project for its owner?
    Vanity Project...I think the i does better, but still peeing money up the wall.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,711
    edited May 2015
    YouGov should be sacked after the election, by everyone, simply for being the most mind-numbingly, soul-destroyingly, hand-gnawingly boring pollster of the lot.

    Goodnight.
  • The_ApocalypseThe_Apocalypse Posts: 7,830
    FrancisUrquhart said:

    The_Apocalypse said:

    The Mirror will back Labour, they aren't going to back the Tories or the LDs.

    Don't really see how Indy going against Labour is /that/ 'significant'. Now that we know their owner is a non-dom, and looking at Labour's policy on non-dom the situation there is pretty much similar to the Barclay Brothers agenda at the Telegraph. It gives Labour one less ally in the press, which increases Labour's uphill battle to get any kind of positive press coverage, but that's about it. I don't think the public take notice of who newspapers endorse, these days. I think we saw how limited newspaper influence was in the last election.

    Given the Indy's minuscule circulation nobody will even notice what they have said, let alone change any minds.
    Yep, suspect The Sun and The Mirror will have the most influence, and even then it'll be limited - most in this country don't read newspapers.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,821
    edited May 2015
    SeanT said:

    Apparently the independence referendum has gone from "once in a generation" to "once you do something we don't like."

    You sound surprised.
  • PBModeratorPBModerator Posts: 665
    IOS - Don't talk about ScottP, directly or indirectly.

    Thank you.
  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    I really cannot see how the Liberals can even get 20 seats now.
  • ProdicusProdicus Posts: 658
    Times piece: McCluskey says the SNP is 'progressive'. Hm. The Staggers says very much not the case. Oh, well. YPYMATYP. Either way, nice to see Ed looking so antsy.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,591
    Danny565 said:

    Lib Dem SURGE!

    Double-figure-tastic!
    Stereotomy said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    NickPalmer said:

    CON - 33% (-1)
    LAB - 33% (-)
    UKIP - 12% (-)
    LDEM - 10% (+1)
    GRN - 5% (-)

    I don't know why we even bother...we all know it what it will be (and if it isn't it will be back to that the next day).
    Anyone care to explain why this is actually Con 9% ahead?
    You see, the poll is understating Con by at least 3, that's just a given, and they'll have a combination late surge/shy Tories on the day of say another 3, stands to reason, and plenty of the Lab vote will stay at home as Ed has renewed his crapness credentials, so they'll be down 3. Boom, Tories +9
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,975
    Ooops

    https://twitter.com/steverichards14/status/595339849101660160
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,591
    Casino_Royale said:

    YouGov should be sacked after the election, by everyone, simply for being the most mind-numbingly, soul-destroyingly, hand-gnawingly boring pollster of the lot.

    Goodnight.

    A little harsh if they are correct. I'd recommend the electorate be sacked for being boring and not reacting to the campaigns at all.
  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    edited May 2015
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Ooops

    https://twitter.com/steverichards14/status/595339849101660160

    Steve , you lost out to Rentoul. Rent a journalist has the owner's ear !

    Tory press ? You are part of the Tory press !
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,533
    edited May 2015
    kle4 said:

    Casino_Royale said:

    YouGov should be sacked after the election, by everyone, simply for being the most mind-numbingly, soul-destroyingly, hand-gnawingly boring pollster of the lot.

    Goodnight.

    A little harsh if they are correct. I'd recommend the electorate be sacked for being boring and not reacting to the campaigns at all.
    Campaign managers want sacking.

    Tories, totally ineffective nonsense
    Labour, more nonsense, albeit probably more effective nonsense
    Lib Dems, what campaign

    Result a boring election campaign, when the actual outcome is so nail bitingly close.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,950
    FrancisUrquhart said:

    Miliband just making stuff about Tories Secret Plan again I see.

    https://twitter.com/suttonnick/status/595337567333134337

    Actually, by polling day, there won't be any need for ANY nurses, because the Tories have a secret plan to kill anyone who turns up at a hospital feeling a bit poorly....

    It is amazing how Ed has a direct line into plans SO secret that even the Tories have no knowledge of them!

    What a twat....

  • GoupillonGoupillon Posts: 79
    Grand coalition, Nick Clegg PM, introduce PR for UK parliamentary elections and the SNP is well and truly put in its place.
  • IOSIOS Posts: 1,450
    Casino

    Its only soul destroying if you don't like the result. Cherio Dave :-)
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,821
    edited May 2015
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    It's almost like the Tories have set up an elephant sized trap for Labour which Labour are desperate to walk into

    Very interesting article on the front of the Times. The post-election Labour civil war seems to have broken out before the election. What that article indicates is that the (admittedly much diminished) sane wing of the Labour Party understands the elephant-trap which the party has set for itself. (The Tories didn't set it up, in fact all they did was put a huge great sign by it saying 'Here is an elephant trap'.)
  • MikeKMikeK Posts: 9,053
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Ooops

    https://twitter.com/steverichards14/status/595339849101660160

    What a bug eyed minger is Richards. A typical champaign socialist.
  • peter_from_putneypeter_from_putney Posts: 6,956
    OGH has been very quiet today - I trust all's OK with him. Perhaps he's just bulding up his strength for a marathon session on Thursday night.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,569
    Dixie and Notme reporting great Tory surge vs an opinion poll, hmm, who to believe?

    I actually don't think anything particular is happening, or will happen before Thursday, except that the remaining don't knows are trickling off the fence both ways in roughly equal numbers, leaving the tie virtually unchanged compared with a 7% Tory lead in 2010. There is some residual tactical voting and vote-swapping in marginals, but the main Lab/Con voting blocs are completely solid. Had a plaintive voter today say he's been canvassed by us three times in a few months as we try to make sure of our vote - "Why won't you take yes for an answer?"
  • midwintermidwinter Posts: 1,112
    Unless you have something either constructive or interesting to say, which would be a first, please stop. Tedious and disruptive. Thanks
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,950
    FPT: A day today delivering a tonnage of leaflets, rather than direct voter contact. But I did get the first voter raising fears about gay marriage. Although it was not going to stop her changing her vote from LibDem last time to Tory this!

    Met various other people switching the right way for us - either to Con from LibDem or from LibDem to Labour - both of which work for us Cons in Torbay! If that is indicative of any wider picture, then.....

    Plus our phone calls checking on our postal vote pledges are showing they are absolutely rock solid in sending them back already. No slippage...
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    Casino_Royale said:

    YouGov should be sacked after the election, by everyone, simply for being the most mind-numbingly, soul-destroyingly, hand-gnawingly boring pollster of the lot.

    Goodnight.

    What if the final result is Lab 33 Con 33?
  • IOSIOS Posts: 1,450
    Nick

    In such margins our ground game will hopefully do the trick.

    Cherio Dave
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,975
    peter_from_putney said:

    OGH has been very quiet today - I trust all's OK with him. Perhaps he's just bulding up his strength for a marathon session on Thursday night.

    Marathon session, Thursday, Friday, Saturday, Sunday, Monday and for a month if the result is as messy as expected.
  • notmenotme Posts: 3,293
    NickPalmer said:

    Dixie and Notme reporting great Tory surge vs an opinion poll, hmm, who to believe?

    I actually don't think anything particular is happening, or will happen before Thursday, except that the remaining don't knows are trickling off the fence both ways in roughly equal numbers, leaving the tie virtually unchanged compared with a 7% Tory lead in 2010. There is some residual tactical voting and vote-swapping in marginals, but the main Lab/Con voting blocs are completely solid. Had a plaintive voter today say he's been canvassed by us three times in a few months as we try to make sure of our vote - "Why won't you take yes for an answer?"

    I have predicted no such surge. It is as it was three months ago and six months ago.
  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    NickPalmer said:

    CON - 33% (-1)
    LAB - 33% (-)
    UKIP - 12% (-)
    LDEM - 10% (+1)
    GRN - 5% (-)

    We need the England and Wales details. Labour almost certainly highest seats.
  • ItwasriggedItwasrigged Posts: 154
    Snzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz!
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,415
    Alistair said:

    Casino_Royale said:

    YouGov should be sacked after the election, by everyone, simply for being the most mind-numbingly, soul-destroyingly, hand-gnawingly boring pollster of the lot.

    Goodnight.

    What if the final result is Lab 33 Con 33?
    Happy days for Ed.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,711
    edited May 2015
    IOS said:

    Casino

    Its only soul destroying if you don't like the result. Cherio Dave :-)

    You shouldn't count your chickens. But, for the record, my predictions have been clear and transparent and repeatedly made on here: Tories most seats, not enough to govern.

    But I do think the Tories are between 1-3% ahead in votes, and will be so on the day, and YouGov has not only failed to pick this up but has also not-picked-this-up in a shatteringly tedious and relentlessly dull way.

    I hope these daily poll stop after the election. For good.
  • IOSIOS Posts: 1,450
    So according to the Tories things were meant to be breaking their way in the last 72 hours.....

    LOL
  • IOSIOS Posts: 1,450
    Cameron and Crosby really have put together the worst campaign.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    Jack W vs Kellner.

    Which one is Mayweather ? And which seat is the bellwether.
  • OllyTOllyT Posts: 5,006
    FrancisUrquhart said:

    NickPalmer said:

    CON - 33% (-1)
    LAB - 33% (-)
    UKIP - 12% (-)
    LDEM - 10% (+1)
    GRN - 5% (-)

    I don't know why we even bother...we all know it what it will be (and if it isn't it will be back to that the next day).
    No sulking, we all know that the PB Tories were expecting a 2% lead tonight in which case YouGov would have been cheered to the rafters!

    Seriously though it is going to be very interesting to see what the final phone polls say this week - if they still have 4%+ Tory leads they could be in for a good night, but if those polls narrow towards the online polls then it's going to be tight and we can probably conclude that the "Edstone" was not the tipping point/ "Sheffield Rally" moment that the majority on here have claimed it would be.

  • IOSIOS Posts: 1,450
    Casino

    I reckon that theres a you gov poll for London tomorrow. Lets see how that goes.
  • NeilNeil Posts: 7,983
    MarqueeMark said:

    FPT: A day today delivering a tonnage of leaflets, rather than direct voter contact. But I did get the first voter raising fears about gay marriage. Although it was not going to stop her changing her vote from LibDem last time to Tory this!

    Met various other people switching the right way for us - either to Con from LibDem or from LibDem to Labour - both of which work for us Cons in Torbay! If that is indicative of any wider picture, then.....

    Plus our phone calls checking on our postal vote pledges are showing they are absolutely rock solid in sending them back already. No slippage...

    A Tory bullish about their chances in Torbay. Anyone else feeling all nostalgic?
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,533
    edited May 2015
    OllyT said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    NickPalmer said:

    CON - 33% (-1)
    LAB - 33% (-)
    UKIP - 12% (-)
    LDEM - 10% (+1)
    GRN - 5% (-)

    I don't know why we even bother...we all know it what it will be (and if it isn't it will be back to that the next day).
    No sulking, we all know that the PB Tories were expecting a 2% lead tonight in which case YouGov would have been cheered to the rafters!

    Seriously though it is going to be very interesting to see what the final phone polls say this week - if they still have 4%+ Tory leads they could be in for a good night, but if those polls narrow towards the online polls then it's going to be tight and we can probably conclude that the "Edstone" was not the tipping point/ "Sheffield Rally" moment that the majority on here have claimed it would be.

    Why would I be sulking?

    And I made no claims about tonights polls or any mention of Ed Stone being his Sheffield Rally moment.
  • IOSIOS Posts: 1,450
    Olly

    It was the last hurrah of the PB Tories excitedly bashing away at their keyboard without a care in the world.

    Turn it round in 48 hours guys.. turn it round.
  • midwintermidwinter Posts: 1,112
    midwinter said:

    Unless you have something either constructive or interesting to say, which would be a first, please stop. Tedious and disruptive. Thanks


    That's to IOS. Apologies if not clear. Maybe Ed will be PM but the incessant hubris and ludicrous comments are juvenile at best and plain stupid and unpleasant at worst.
  • Eh_ehm_a_ehEh_ehm_a_eh Posts: 552
    Stop panicking everyone. Easter, followed by May bank holiday.
    Tories back into 3 point lead by June.
  • MTimTMTimT Posts: 7,034
    Leaving aside all other knowledge of this election, it is interesting from this image on the BBC News web site of the three leaders that both Cameron and Clegg look defensive and slightly hurt, whereas Miliband looks aggressive. A reflection of their campaign styles?

    http://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/660/media/images/82761000/jpg/_82761051_bbcleaderscomp.jpg
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,591
    edited May 2015
    It's interesting that we still occasionally get comments implying how almost all Tories are really overconfident about the result, when it seems to me that Labour supporters are in general making more assumptions that the result will fall their way. Which makes sense to me, I think it will to and don't know why there has been so much Labour pessimism around, but it's weird that the perception still remains to some extent that its the Tories (in general, not specific people) who are getting cocky.
  • The_ApocalypseThe_Apocalypse Posts: 7,830
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Ooops

    https://twitter.com/steverichards14/status/595339849101660160

    He didn't get the memo, I see.
  • MarkSeniorMarkSenior Posts: 4,699
    Interestingly on the Vote 2012 website , Robert Waller says that he did constituency polling way back in 1987 in Cheltenham for Harris .
    With unnamed candidates the polls showed a Lib Dem gain . After nominations closed they changed their polling to named candidates and then correctly forecast that the Conservatives would hold the seat .
  • IOSIOS Posts: 1,450
    Midwinter

    For every one of me there are 10 PB Tories. And the difference is I am going to be right.

    Oh for the days when everyone was so certain on here that the campaign would tear Ed apart.

    LOL LOL LOL
  • OllyTOllyT Posts: 5,006
    FrancisUrquhart said:

    Stereotomy said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    NickPalmer said:

    CON - 33% (-1)
    LAB - 33% (-)
    UKIP - 12% (-)
    LDEM - 10% (+1)
    GRN - 5% (-)

    I don't know why we even bother...we all know it what it will be (and if it isn't it will be back to that the next day).
    Anyone care to explain why this is actually Con 9% ahead?
    ?
    I think he is referring to the fact that Chestnut usually tells us that every poll actually has a substantial Tory lead, regardless of the actual result.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,672
    RodCrosby said:

    Indy front page: 60% now support electoral reform...

    The Times has come out for it too. The clock is ticking. If FPTP can no longer even deliver majorities it has lost all justifications. There's no harm in discussing possible coalitions before a vote. In fact, it's much more honest than what we have now.

  • kjohnwkjohnw Posts: 1,456
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    It's almost like the Tories have set up an elephant sized trap for Labour which Labour are desperate to walk into

    https://twitter.com/SkyNews/status/595338871442903041

    I sense panic at Miliband HQ he knows he is going to lose
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 54,032
    If, and I am saying if, either party wins by 5% can we all hope and pray that Yougov go the same way as those Canadian prats after the last election?

    Obviously I would want the party ahead to be the Tories but increasingly that is not the priority.
  • Y0kelY0kel Posts: 2,307
    If I recall correctly, I've already stated my view that the Tories will be north of 35% and Labour south of 35%. What I can't quite work out is what the gap will be.

    Cue polls suggesting different results entirely.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,591
    edited May 2015
    The_Apocalypse said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Ooops

    https://twitter.com/steverichards14/status/595339849101660160

    He didn't get the memo, I see.
    Just maintaining that Independent line, arguing both sides.

    Edit: I think they should print every paper which front to back is left leaning, and back to front is right leaning, like those old comic books which had two stories printed, with front covers on both sides.
    MTimT said:

    Leaving aside all other knowledge of this election, it is interesting from this image on the BBC News web site of the three leaders that both Cameron and Clegg look defensive and slightly hurt, whereas Miliband looks aggressive. A reflection of their campaign styles?

    http://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/660/media/images/82761000/jpg/_82761051_bbcleaderscomp.jpg

    IDK, Clegg has seemed the more punchy in this campaign as far as I can tell. Ed's had some moments like that, but on the whole I've thought he was making a Mr Super Reasonable and laid back sort of pitch.
  • IOSIOS Posts: 1,450
    kjohnw

    LOL - ah the Murdoch press that fine objective organ.

    Give over.
  • john_zimsjohn_zims Posts: 3,399
    @IOS

    Your mum says it's time for bed.
  • NeilNeil Posts: 7,983
    Surely tonight's news that the SNP share Tory values, concerns and priorities has an impact on the potential post election maths and coalitions?

    (Not really, I just wanted to get back to the SNP sharing Tory values, concerns and priorities. Please dont let this be a wind-up now, I'm having so much fun.)
  • Ishmael_XIshmael_X Posts: 3,664
    IOS said:

    So according to the Tories things were meant to be breaking their way in the last 72 hours.....

    LOL

    You seem a bit euphoric, dear. Calm down and, if you can't wait the three sleeps till we see ed's hilarious trouncing by the electorate, at least wait for a proper poll tomorrow rather than a self-selected internet focus group.

    Furthermore, take note that the Sheffield hypothesis (now subsumed in the EdStone conjecture) has always said that ed's crapness will not shift votes between parties, it will simply discourage thick and lazy Labour voters* from getting their lardy arses down to the polling station. And it will.

    *I would never suggest that Labour voters are thick and lazy, but Surbiton says they are.
  • compouter2compouter2 Posts: 2,371
    The PB Hodges Swingback has appeared just in time, I bow to your nevereding faith in it.

    All hail Lynton!

    PS Crosby just sent me a private mail saying his new new election forcaster model says Tory mosts seats 100% probability, Tory Majority 200% probability. He was right after all.
  • StereotomyStereotomy Posts: 4,092
    SouthamObserver said:

    RodCrosby said:

    Indy front page: 60% now support electoral reform...

    The Times has come out for it too. The clock is ticking. If FPTP can no longer even deliver majorities it has lost all justifications. There's no harm in discussing possible coalitions before a vote. In fact, it's much more honest than what we have now.

    Might have been a blessing that AV failed if we get something better as a result
  • IOSIOS Posts: 1,450
    Ishmael

    Common lets bet. You say Con 37% I will give you 2-1 against.

    LET'S GO
  • ProdicusProdicus Posts: 658
    Is IOS the Return of Tim? Same MO much of the time.

    EdmundinTokyo developed an MS gizmo, back in the day, which would let one highlight one's fave posters and switch off the yawns. I miss that.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,591
    FrancisUrquhart said:

    OllyT said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    NickPalmer said:

    CON - 33% (-1)
    LAB - 33% (-)
    UKIP - 12% (-)
    LDEM - 10% (+1)
    GRN - 5% (-)

    I don't know why we even bother...we all know it what it will be (and if it isn't it will be back to that the next day).
    No sulking, we all know that the PB Tories were expecting a 2% lead tonight in which case YouGov would have been cheered to the rafters!

    Seriously though it is going to be very interesting to see what the final phone polls say this week - if they still have 4%+ Tory leads they could be in for a good night, but if those polls narrow towards the online polls then it's going to be tight and we can probably conclude that the "Edstone" was not the tipping point/ "Sheffield Rally" moment that the majority on here have claimed it would be.

    Why would I be sulking?

    And I made no claims about tonights polls or any mention of Ed Stone being his Sheffield Rally moment.
    Very few people did, and in fact most people laughing at it stressed they didn't think it would change the result, but it will be remembered as though everyone was treating it as such. It's one of the most tedious of tribal political tactics, to only recall the most extreme of arguments and pretend it is representative of your opponent's whole argument. Sadly it's one of the non-partisan behaviours, so nobody is completely free of it.


This discussion has been closed.