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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » If other firms show LAB only retaining 63% of 2010 party v

SystemSystem Posts: 12,216
edited April 2015 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » If other firms show LAB only retaining 63% of 2010 party voters then they are in trouble

The big feature from today’s dramatic Ipsos-MORI poll was that only 63% of 2010 LAB voters said they would still vote you party. This is totally out of line with other recent surveys which generally have had LAB with the highest rates of 2010 retention.

Read the full story here


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Comments

  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 55,027
    First?
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 63,137
    I'm sticking with it as an outlier until we see another poll or two
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 52,135
    It's Ipsos MORI, not Ipsos-MORI :)
  • ArtistArtist Posts: 1,893
    I mentioned earlier that different pollsters are each finding different reasons for Labour's fall. It could be a bit of everything.
  • PrinceofTarantoPrinceofTaranto Posts: 335
    Patrick McLoughin has apparently come out and confirmed the next Thames Crossing will be in Thurrock. Must be the end of JDPs chances there surely?
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,672
    Where are the other 37% going?
  • OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 9,143
    edited April 2015
    2010 Labour voters: 11% to Greens, 10% to Tories, 7% to SNP, 5% to UKIP, 4% to Liberal Democrat (!), 1% to Plaid Cymru, 1% Another Party, 9% (Don't Know, Refused, Would Not Vote, Not Registered)*

    It's the first two that represent a large variance from other polls, I think.

    * These figures are from the first table, but the certain to vote figures are pretty similar (eg Con 11% and Green 10%).
  • SimonStClareSimonStClare Posts: 7,976
    Farage falls behind Clegg in Ipsos leader satisfaction ratings.

    That reminds me of my school report - "set a low standard and failed to achieve it..!"
  • MikeSmithsonMikeSmithson Posts: 7,382
    PrinceofTaranto said:

    Patrick McLoughin has apparently come out and confirmed the next Thames Crossing will be in Thurrock. Must be the end of JDPs chances there surely?

    He is not allowed to make such announcements during election campaigns. That breaks all the rules

  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,672
    OblitusSumMe said:

    2010 Labour voters: 11% to Greens, 10% to Tories, 7% to SNP, 5% to UKIP, 4% to Liberal Democrat (!), 1% to Plaid Cymru, 1% Another Party, 9% (Don't Know, Refused, Would Not Vote, Not Registered)

    It's the first two that represent a large variance from other polls, I think.

    Yes, that does look a bit strange. The 4% to LD is a touch peculiar too.

  • PrinceofTarantoPrinceofTaranto Posts: 335
    MikeSmithson said:

    PrinceofTaranto said:

    Patrick McLoughin has apparently come out and confirmed the next Thames Crossing will be in Thurrock. Must be the end of JDPs chances there surely?

    He is not allowed to make such announcements during election campaigns. That breaks all the rules

    Well apparently he just did .There were 4 options I believe and he has said it will be one of the 2 Thurrock ones.JDP is not happy as she wanted a Canvey option .
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 55,027
    FPT - This is the best explanation as to what will actually happen as regards Parliamentary procedure.
    OblitusSumMe said:

    edmundintokyo said:

    FTP Procedural question: Say Cameron doesn't have the votes, but Ed Miliband may be able to cobble together some unholy coalition. Am I right in assuming nobody can vote on Ed Miliband's government until Cameron resigns and suggests to the Queen that she ask him to have a go? At that point does Cameron move out of Downing Street and Miliband become PM, even though nobody knows yet whether he'll be able to pass a Queen's Speech? If so can Miliband move into Number 10 and fire off nuclear weapons at people and do other Prime Ministerish things?

    Yes, this is because everyone sort of pretends that the Queen can choose whoever she wants to be Prime Minister. Thus a PM is appointed by the Sovereign and not by a vote in Parliament. If she reads PB and was impressed by your posts, you too could be appointed PM and gain all that royal prerogative power.

    However, in practice, Monarchs have learnt that appointing a PM who does not have the confidence of Parliament makes them very unpopular, very quickly, and so now they insist that the resigning PM tells them who to appoint - or (before the FTPA) to hold an election if there is no suitable candidate.

    In the event that Miliband does not have a formal agreement of support from the SNP & others the situation is really messy, as he'll only be able to demonstrate that he has the votes by holding a vote in the Commons. This is different to 2010, because the Coalition Agreement between the Conservatives and the Liberal Democrats meant that everyone could see that Cameron had the votes. I'm not sure that an informal arrangement has the same credibility.

    Therefore, I think that Cameron would be doing Her Majesty a favour if he sat tight in Number Ten if the Tories have more seats than Labour, and forces Miliband to prove that Cameron no longer has the confidence of the House by voting with the SNP against him. This also has the advantage of starting the 14-day countdown in the FTPA, forcing PM Miliband to win his own confidence motion in that time frame.

    Otherwise you could have HMQ appointing Miliband as PM only for him to lose his first vote in the House if the SNP throw a strop, and with 14 days to wait before Parliament can be dissolved for another election. It wouldn't look good for Lizzie to have appointed the leader of the second-largest party and for him not to have the confidence of the House anyway.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 52,135
    SouthamObserver said:

    OblitusSumMe said:

    2010 Labour voters: 11% to Greens, 10% to Tories, 7% to SNP, 5% to UKIP, 4% to Liberal Democrat (!), 1% to Plaid Cymru, 1% Another Party, 9% (Don't Know, Refused, Would Not Vote, Not Registered)

    It's the first two that represent a large variance from other polls, I think.

    Yes, that does look a bit strange. The 4% to LD is a touch peculiar too.

    Surely it would be (far more than) 4% LDs going back to Labour?
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 54,027
    It is odd that there is such a change in voter retention all of a sudden and if that is what is driving the change there has to be a question mark. I wonder how many of the ex Labour supporters were in Scotland. If it was a disproportionate number that would certainly affect voter retention.

    That said, an excellent poll for the Tories putting the last of the phone pollsters on their side. A bet on Labour winning most votes is now a bet on the internet pollsters being more accurate than the phones. Neither are without their problems but given the track record I will prefer the phones until proven otherwise.

    The formula remains: will the seat differential in favour of the Tories + the Lib Dems> the SNP? I still think not. So many of the Tory gains are going to be from the Lib Dems, eating their own breakfast. The SNP gains from the Lib Dems still tips the balance Labour's way by my reckoning.

    Getting closer though.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,947
    The 10% to the Tories could be those who see economic management as the ultimate driver of their vote. They voted for Brown last time, having kinda believed that he saved the world (or at least, that he was more competent than the untested Tories).

    Labour has made no case for their economic management this time. Not surprised these Brown-backers would desert...
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 52,135
    PrinceofTaranto said:

    MikeSmithson said:

    PrinceofTaranto said:

    Patrick McLoughin has apparently come out and confirmed the next Thames Crossing will be in Thurrock. Must be the end of JDPs chances there surely?

    He is not allowed to make such announcements during election campaigns. That breaks all the rules

    Well apparently he just did .There were 4 options I believe and he has said it will be one of the 2 Thurrock ones.JDP is not happy as she wanted a Canvey option .
    I can only think the Canvey option would be far more expensive as the Thames Estuary is far wider there.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,415
    OblitusSumMe said:

    2010 Labour voters: 11% to Greens, 10% to Tories, 7% to SNP, 5% to UKIP, 4% to Liberal Democrat (!), 1% to Plaid Cymru, 1% Another Party, 9% (Don't Know, Refused, Would Not Vote, Not Registered)*

    It's the first two that represent a large variance from other polls, I think.

    * These figures are from the first table, but the certain to vote figures are pretty similar (eg Con 11% and Green 10%).

    7% to SNP

    Rofl
  • OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 9,143
    SouthamObserver said:

    OblitusSumMe said:

    2010 Labour voters: 11% to Greens, 10% to Tories, 7% to SNP, 5% to UKIP, 4% to Liberal Democrat (!), 1% to Plaid Cymru, 1% Another Party, 9% (Don't Know, Refused, Would Not Vote, Not Registered)

    It's the first two that represent a large variance from other polls, I think.

    Yes, that does look a bit strange. The 4% to LD is a touch peculiar too.
    My experience has always been that potential Green voters are very willing to vote Labour as an anti-Tory necessity, so that particularly surprises me. A late swing from 2010 Labour voters to support the incumbent is not so surprising.

    The number of undecideds is very low in this poll (if I'm reading it right) so either people are making their mind up, or Ipsos managed to phone everyone at a hustings meeting...
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,415
    Pulpstar said:

    OblitusSumMe said:

    2010 Labour voters: 11% to Greens, 10% to Tories, 7% to SNP, 5% to UKIP, 4% to Liberal Democrat (!), 1% to Plaid Cymru, 1% Another Party, 9% (Don't Know, Refused, Would Not Vote, Not Registered)*

    It's the first two that represent a large variance from other polls, I think.

    * These figures are from the first table, but the certain to vote figures are pretty similar (eg Con 11% and Green 10%).

    7% to SNP

    Rofl
    Scottish Labour has Bob Hope if that is correct.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 54,027
    Apologies if I am coming late to this after a busy day but the Sporting Index lead for the Tories on mid points now seems to be 20. That is as large as I can recall seeing it.

    20 +, say 25 Lib Dems vs, say, 50 SNP. Still favouring Ed for PM, particularly when the Green has said she will support Labour and the SDLP votes but seriously close now.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 52,135
    More on Thames Crossing:

    http://www.maldonandburnhamstandard.co.uk/news/south_essex_news/12922099.Transport_Secretary__New_Thames_crossing_will_be_in_Thurrock/
  • OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 9,143
    OblitusSumMe said:

    SouthamObserver said:

    OblitusSumMe said:

    2010 Labour voters: 11% to Greens, 10% to Tories, 7% to SNP, 5% to UKIP, 4% to Liberal Democrat (!), 1% to Plaid Cymru, 1% Another Party, 9% (Don't Know, Refused, Would Not Vote, Not Registered)

    It's the first two that represent a large variance from other polls, I think.

    Yes, that does look a bit strange. The 4% to LD is a touch peculiar too.
    My experience has always been that potential Green voters are very willing to vote Labour as an anti-Tory necessity, so that particularly surprises me. A late swing from 2010 Labour voters to support the incumbent is not so surprising.

    The number of undecideds is very low in this poll (if I'm reading it right) so either people are making their mind up, or Ipsos managed to phone everyone at a hustings meeting...
    On the number of don't knows, this is much higher in the last ICM, which had Labour retention at 67% out of the 100% including don't knows and 82% when they are excluded.

    So if you take the poll at face value then it tells us that most of the 2010 Labour don't knows have suddenly decided to split 50:50 between the Tories and the Greens.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    ESSEX (@DailyESSEX)
    30/04/2015 16:01
    #Thurrock: Candidates vying for Thurrock seat react to latest Thames crossing… j.mp/1OILs3I #Essex pic.twitter.com/znX8fJzRSt
  • TabmanTabman Posts: 1,046
    SouthamObserver said:

    OblitusSumMe said:

    2010 Labour voters: 11% to Greens, 10% to Tories, 7% to SNP, 5% to UKIP, 4% to Liberal Democrat (!), 1% to Plaid Cymru, 1% Another Party, 9% (Don't Know, Refused, Would Not Vote, Not Registered)

    It's the first two that represent a large variance from other polls, I think.

    Yes, that does look a bit strange. The 4% to LD is a touch peculiar too.

    Not that strange. Some voters like to back a winner, either locally or nationally and being in government may have dispelled some of the "I'd vote for you but ... " types.
  • PrinceofTarantoPrinceofTaranto Posts: 335
    Sunil_Prasannan said:

    PrinceofTaranto said:

    MikeSmithson said:

    PrinceofTaranto said:

    Patrick McLoughin has apparently come out and confirmed the next Thames Crossing will be in Thurrock. Must be the end of JDPs chances there surely?

    He is not allowed to make such announcements during election campaigns. That breaks all the rules

    Well apparently he just did .There were 4 options I believe and he has said it will be one of the 2 Thurrock ones.JDP is not happy as she wanted a Canvey option .
    I can only think the Canvey option would be far more expensive as the Thames Estuary is far wider there.
    Maybe but poor Thurrock becomes the dumping ground again
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    PrinceofTaranto said:

    MikeSmithson said:

    PrinceofTaranto said:

    Patrick McLoughin has apparently come out and confirmed the next Thames Crossing will be in Thurrock. Must be the end of JDPs chances there surely?

    He is not allowed to make such announcements during election campaigns. That breaks all the rules

    Well apparently he just did .There were 4 options I believe and he has said it will be one of the 2 Thurrock ones.JDP is not happy as she wanted a Canvey option .
    Canvey a straight Ukip-Tory fight, Thurrock is Ukip-labour hmmm
  • MikeSmithsonMikeSmithson Posts: 7,382
    DavidL said:

    Apologies if I am coming late to this after a busy day but the Sporting Index lead for the Tories on mid points now seems to be 20. That is as large as I can recall seeing it.

    20 +, say 25 Lib Dems vs, say, 50 SNP. Still favouring Ed for PM, particularly when the Green has said she will support Labour and the SDLP votes but seriously close now.

    Correct. The 20 seat CON lead on SPIN is the highest it has been this campaign. The firm tells me that this is where the money is going

  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,540
    What's happened to Panelbase?
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 63,137
    Sunil_Prasannan said:

    PrinceofTaranto said:

    MikeSmithson said:

    PrinceofTaranto said:

    Patrick McLoughin has apparently come out and confirmed the next Thames Crossing will be in Thurrock. Must be the end of JDPs chances there surely?

    He is not allowed to make such announcements during election campaigns. That breaks all the rules

    Well apparently he just did .There were 4 options I believe and he has said it will be one of the 2 Thurrock ones.JDP is not happy as she wanted a Canvey option .
    I can only think the Canvey option would be far more expensive as the Thames Estuary is far wider there.
    But might be part of new flood barrier according to Wikipedia article on the plans.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,540
    isam said:

    PrinceofTaranto said:

    MikeSmithson said:

    PrinceofTaranto said:

    Patrick McLoughin has apparently come out and confirmed the next Thames Crossing will be in Thurrock. Must be the end of JDPs chances there surely?

    He is not allowed to make such announcements during election campaigns. That breaks all the rules

    Well apparently he just did .There were 4 options I believe and he has said it will be one of the 2 Thurrock ones.JDP is not happy as she wanted a Canvey option .
    Canvey a straight Ukip-Tory fight, Thurrock is Ukip-labour hmmm
    Does that mean the Conservatives have written Thurrock off?
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    The whole point of putting on a mockney or jafaican accent is to sound stupid, or at least uneducated.

    The RP accent has fallen out of favour in recent years largely because RP represents a social order that has fallen out of favour. It has been replaced by the leveled-out accent of the new Establishment – Tony Blair’s transatlantic D’s, Ed Balls’ blokishness, and now Ed Miliband trying to downplay his origins in London’s Marxist intelligentsia to pretend to be as ignorant as Russell Brand’s fans.
    http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/coffeehouse/2015/04/the-cultural-significance-of-ed-milibands-mockney-accent/
  • Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    Sigh. It's over.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    Danny565 said:

    Sigh. It's over.

    Calm down, dear...

    Phil Roberts Bob Sykes will be along in a bit to buck you up
  • OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 9,143
    Danny565 said:

    Sigh. It's over.

    One Hundred and Seventy Two and a Half(ish) hours to go.

    Even if you believe that PM Miliband is no longer possible, the difference between Con minority/coalition and majority is not to be dismissed. Which leftie wants to see PM Cameron strutting around with an electoral mandate a la George W Bush in 2005?
  • SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,780
    OblitusSumMe said:

    Danny565 said:

    Sigh. It's over.

    One Hundred and Seventy Two and a Half(ish) hours to go.

    Even if you believe that PM Miliband is no longer possible, the difference between Con minority/coalition and majority is not to be dismissed. Which leftie wants to see PM Cameron strutting around with an electoral mandate a la George W Bush in 2005?
    I think theres still a good chance of Ed being PM, just the weakest PM in living history.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 42,160
    Fpt
    Pulpstar said:

    Carnyx said:

    Pulpstar said:

    franklyn said:

    franklyn said:

    Do people on this site really believe that the SNP will produce a clean sweep in the 59 Scottish seats? would anyone like to have a charity bet (i.e they believe they will, I believe they won't). Loser to pay £50 to the charity of the winner's choice. Must be a UK wide charity (not a Scottish only or English only one) and not a religious charity.

    First person to accept publicly on PB is on (one bet only). My nominated charity (should I win) is the Cure Parkinsons Trust, which supports research done into Parkinsons disease. Anyone who wants to support the charity but not take the bet can go onto www.justgiving.com/Anna-Monk1

    Please accept this post in the sporting spirit in which it was intended, even if you have disagreed with previous posts that I have made, and please consider a donation to this worthy charity even if you don't want to bet.

    Most amusing...none of you cybernats are willing to back up all your shouting by risking your own money! You only want to spend money if it's someone else's, I presume
    Sorry but why would anyone take this bet when the SNP are still 9-2 in Orkney and Shetland ?
    Indeed. In the runup for the indyref one of the unionist posters managed to get a similar bet with one of the pro-indy folk but then crowed about being able to offset his bet with the better odds available at a betting company for the same thing.

    Well Union Divvie's odds were exceptionally generous !

    My winnings from him went straight to Fluffy Thoughts mind....

    Bloody oil !
    Certainly they were with hindsight!

    Curiously you and tim were the only two to take advantage of them. Similar to the current example, there was never a Unionist willing to bet on the referendum at under evens.
  • steve_garnersteve_garner Posts: 1,019
    Increase in the tax threshold leading to extra cash in April's pay packets caused some comment in our office today. Can't see that harming the Tories much.
  • Chris123Chris123 Posts: 174
    According to the Ipsos Mori poll:

    - Labour only retains 63% of 2010 voters
    - Social class DE voting 35% Tory to 29% Labour
    - The Greens will get more votes in England than UKIP

    This does not match with what we know from the other polls, therefore it is safe to say that this is another outlier.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,964
    Good evening, everyone.

    Just a week to go, and then we'll be getting all excited for the Spanish Grand Prix.
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,207
    only -2 for Cameron as leader of evil, cutting tories is really rather good isn't it?

    Whereas Ed on -25 when he can scream and shout about every decision the government makes is really rather crap.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    Sean_F said:

    isam said:

    PrinceofTaranto said:

    MikeSmithson said:

    PrinceofTaranto said:

    Patrick McLoughin has apparently come out and confirmed the next Thames Crossing will be in Thurrock. Must be the end of JDPs chances there surely?

    He is not allowed to make such announcements during election campaigns. That breaks all the rules

    Well apparently he just did .There were 4 options I believe and he has said it will be one of the 2 Thurrock ones.JDP is not happy as she wanted a Canvey option .
    Canvey a straight Ukip-Tory fight, Thurrock is Ukip-labour hmmm
    Does that mean the Conservatives have written Thurrock off?
    Possibly.. Long time since I spoke to anyone from UKIP in that area but they only ever talked of Labour as the opponent
  • Chris123Chris123 Posts: 174
    Yet there is evidence that there has been a Conservative polling bounce over the last few days and they're probably ahead by 1-3 points right now. The question is whether it will last and whether it is evenly spread geographically or is Labour doing better in the marginals?
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,964
    edited April 2015
    Mr. Garner, you're in Balls' constituency, yes? What do you think of his prospects?

    I reckon around 80% chance of a hold. A loss is credible, but an outside chance.
  • KentRisingKentRising Posts: 2,917
    Floater said:

    only -2 for Cameron as leader of evil, cutting tories is really rather good isn't it?

    Whereas Ed on -25 when he can scream and shout about every decision the government makes is really rather crap.

    Anecdotal. Brand interview was last straw for some red-inclined friends. They are now not voting. Can't take Ed seriously.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    Buzzword bingo

    @SkyBet: Surely #Milifans is going to come up tonight? Back it now at 5/1 #Dimblebingo > http://t.co/TsJonbYIaB http://t.co/PL9m0JDeyL
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,964
    Mr. Floater, Miliband's on -19, not -25.
  • RodCrosbyRodCrosby Posts: 7,737
    edited April 2015
    Under the "old" L&N model, these numbers would be pointing to a Tory landslide...
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    edited April 2015
    Scott_P said:

    The whole point of putting on a mockney or jafaican accent is to sound stupid, or at least uneducated.

    The RP accent has fallen out of favour in recent years largely because RP represents a social order that has fallen out of favour. It has been replaced by the leveled-out accent of the new Establishment – Tony Blair’s transatlantic D’s, Ed Balls’ blokishness, and now Ed Miliband trying to downplay his origins in London’s Marxist intelligentsia to pretend to be as ignorant as Russell Brand’s fans.
    http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/coffeehouse/2015/04/the-cultural-significance-of-ed-milibands-mockney-accent/

    They're all such phoneys, I've 'ad enuff, I wanna change

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/georgeosborne/9966717/Mockney-George-Osborne-backs-the-Briddish-who-wanna-work.html
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    Scott_P said:

    Buzzword bingo

    @SkyBet: Surely #Milifans is going to come up tonight? Back it now at 5/1 #Dimblebingo > http://t.co/TsJonbYIaB http://t.co/PL9m0JDeyL

    Leaving Buzzword bingo so far alone I cannot even see it from where I am.
  • KentRisingKentRising Posts: 2,917
    edited April 2015
    isam said:

    Sean_F said:

    isam said:

    PrinceofTaranto said:

    MikeSmithson said:

    PrinceofTaranto said:

    Patrick McLoughin has apparently come out and confirmed the next Thames Crossing will be in Thurrock. Must be the end of JDPs chances there surely?

    He is not allowed to make such announcements during election campaigns. That breaks all the rules

    Well apparently he just did .There were 4 options I believe and he has said it will be one of the 2 Thurrock ones.JDP is not happy as she wanted a Canvey option .
    Canvey a straight Ukip-Tory fight, Thurrock is Ukip-labour hmmm
    Does that mean the Conservatives have written Thurrock off?
    Possibly.. Long time since I spoke to anyone from UKIP in that area but they only ever talked of Labour as the opponent
    Thurrock: YouGov Nowcast has Con back in third - 'too close to call' between UKIP and Labour. https://yougov.co.uk/#/constituency/466/nowcast/
  • AnorakAnorak Posts: 6,621
    For Sunil: IPSOS Mori, IPsos MORi, Ipsos-Moori, MORI-Ipsos, Ipsos=Mori, Ipsos/MORI, Ipsos mORI
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,568
    DavidL said:

    It is odd that there is such a change in voter retention all of a sudden and if that is what is driving the change there has to be a question mark. I wonder how many of the ex Labour supporters were in Scotland. If it was a disproportionate number that would certainly affect voter retention.

    That said, an excellent poll for the Tories putting the last of the phone pollsters on their side. A bet on Labour winning most votes is now a bet on the internet pollsters being more accurate than the phones.

    Isn't ComRes a phone poll? I'm a bit sceptical of their sudden swing to Labour, as I am about the Ipsos Mori sudden swing to the Tories. Is there any data suggesting that phone polls have higher variability?

  • KentRisingKentRising Posts: 2,917
    Ps, a strong Cammo showing tonight could seal the momentum for the blues.
  • TabmanTabman Posts: 1,046
    isam said:

    Scott_P said:

    The whole point of putting on a mockney or jafaican accent is to sound stupid, or at least uneducated.

    The RP accent has fallen out of favour in recent years largely because RP represents a social order that has fallen out of favour. It has been replaced by the leveled-out accent of the new Establishment – Tony Blair’s transatlantic D’s, Ed Balls’ blokishness, and now Ed Miliband trying to downplay his origins in London’s Marxist intelligentsia to pretend to be as ignorant as Russell Brand’s fans.
    http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/coffeehouse/2015/04/the-cultural-significance-of-ed-milibands-mockney-accent/
    They're all such phoneys, I've 'ad enuff, I wanna change

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/georgeosborne/9966717/Mockney-George-Osborne-backs-the-Briddish-who-wanna-work.html

    He's not known as "Oik" for nothing, doncha know.

  • Chris123Chris123 Posts: 174
    KentRising said:

    Floater said:

    only -2 for Cameron as leader of evil, cutting tories is really rather good isn't it?

    Whereas Ed on -25 when he can scream and shout about every decision the government makes is really rather crap.

    Anecdotal. Brand interview was last straw for some red-inclined friends. They are now not voting. Can't take Ed seriously.
    Wow! They most have been the most fickle voters to begin with.
  • peter_from_putneypeter_from_putney Posts: 6,956
    edited April 2015
    MikeSmithson said:

    DavidL said:

    Apologies if I am coming late to this after a busy day but the Sporting Index lead for the Tories on mid points now seems to be 20. That is as large as I can recall seeing it.

    20 +, say 25 Lib Dems vs, say, 50 SNP. Still favouring Ed for PM, particularly when the Green has said she will support Labour and the SDLP votes but seriously close now.

    Correct. The 20 seat CON lead on SPIN is the highest it has been this campaign. The firm tells me that this is where the money is going

    Except your money, eh Mike?

    Oops sorry Mike for that rather childish and insensitive joke. Do please forgive me.
  • TabmanTabman Posts: 1,046
    steve_garner said:

    Increase in the tax threshold leading to extra cash in April's pay packets caused some comment in our office today. Can't see that harming the Tories much.

    It's a good job the Lib Dems insisted their policy on raising the tax threshold was included in the Coalition Agreement.
  • steve_garnersteve_garner Posts: 1,019
    Morris_Dancer said:

    Mr. Garner, you're in Balls' constituency, yes? What do you think of his prospects?

    I reckon around 80% chance of a hold. A loss is credible, but an outside chance.

    Morris_Dancer said:

    Mr. Garner, you're in Balls' constituency, yes? What do you think of his prospects?

    I reckon around 80% chance of a hold. A loss is credible, but an outside chance.

    Hello Morris, yes I'm in Morley. I reckon it's tight but he'll probably hang on, just. There's been plenty of literature from the Cons and today Mrs Garner received a letter from the PM referencing Liam Byrne's infamous note. Osborne was in Morley a few days ago too so clearly the Cons think it's a possibility. OGH rubbished me a few weeks ago for saying Wakefield is also tight but I work there and reckon it's also going to be close.

  • AnorakAnorak Posts: 6,621
    Chris123 said:

    KentRising said:

    Floater said:

    only -2 for Cameron as leader of evil, cutting tories is really rather good isn't it?

    Whereas Ed on -25 when he can scream and shout about every decision the government makes is really rather crap.

    Anecdotal. Brand interview was last straw for some red-inclined friends. They are now not voting. Can't take Ed seriously.
    Wow! They most have been the most fickle voters to begin with.
    Even for the stoutest of camel, there is a straw which is a straw too many.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @PanelbaseMD: New (29/04-30/04) @panelbase #GE2015 poll results: LAB 34% (NC), CON 32% (+1%), UKIP 17% (NC), LD 8% (+1), GRN 4% (NC). Tables up later.
  • AnorakAnorak Posts: 6,621
    edited April 2015
    Scott_P said:

    @PanelbaseMD: New (29/04-30/04) @panelbase #GE2015 poll results: LAB 34% (NC), CON 32% (+1%), UKIP 17% (NC), LD 8% (+1), GRN 4% (NC). Tables up later.

    Disappointing. But movement in the right direction.

    That's a trawler-full of kippers, though.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,540
    Anorak said:

    Scott_P said:

    @PanelbaseMD: New (29/04-30/04) @panelbase #GE2015 poll results: LAB 34% (NC), CON 32% (+1%), UKIP 17% (NC), LD 8% (+1), GRN 4% (NC). Tables up later.

    Disappointing. But movement in the right direction.

    That's a trawler-full of kippers, though.
    Panelbase have never shown the Conservatives better than level-pegging.
  • PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    I hope the trend remains our friend. Kippers are holding up well.
    Scott_P said:

    @PanelbaseMD: New (29/04-30/04) @panelbase #GE2015 poll results: LAB 34% (NC), CON 32% (+1%), UKIP 17% (NC), LD 8% (+1), GRN 4% (NC). Tables up later.

  • PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    Oh really? Well that's better than it looks on paper.
    Sean_F said:

    Anorak said:

    Scott_P said:

    @PanelbaseMD: New (29/04-30/04) @panelbase #GE2015 poll results: LAB 34% (NC), CON 32% (+1%), UKIP 17% (NC), LD 8% (+1), GRN 4% (NC). Tables up later.

    Disappointing. But movement in the right direction.

    That's a trawler-full of kippers, though.
    Panelbase have never shown the Conservatives better than level-pegging.
  • peter_from_putneypeter_from_putney Posts: 6,956
    Sean_F said:

    Anorak said:

    Scott_P said:

    @PanelbaseMD: New (29/04-30/04) @panelbase #GE2015 poll results: LAB 34% (NC), CON 32% (+1%), UKIP 17% (NC), LD 8% (+1), GRN 4% (NC). Tables up later.

    Disappointing. But movement in the right direction.

    That's a trawler-full of kippers, though.
    Panelbase have never shown the Conservatives better than level-pegging.
    No one else is showing UKIP as having 17% either. Therein lies the difference between Panelbase and the others.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    edited April 2015
    SPUD

    The trewf

    10 polls this week, 8 pollsters (27/11)

    CON +11 (+3)
    LAB -5 (-18)
    UKIP NC (+7)
    LD -2 ( -1)
    GREEN +4 (+5)
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 52,135
    Scott_P said:

    @PanelbaseMD: New (29/04-30/04) @panelbase #GE2015 poll results: LAB 34% (NC), CON 32% (+1%), UKIP 17% (NC), LD 8% (+1), GRN 4% (NC). Tables up later.

    Only four Labour leads this week?
  • OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 9,143
    Morris_Dancer said:

    Mr. Garner, you're in Balls' constituency, yes? What do you think of his prospects?

    I reckon around 80% chance of a hold. A loss is credible, but an outside chance.

    I think the best chance for a Balls defeat is a UKIP surge either letting the Tories through the middle in a three-way marginal, or taking the seat themselves.
  • SimonStClareSimonStClare Posts: 7,976
    Mike Smithson ‏@MSmithsonPB 2 mins2 minutes ago
    LAB at 2% lead with Panelbase. LAB 34% (NC), CON 32% (+1%), UKIP 17% (NC), LD 8% (+1), GRN 4% (NC)

    Steevie ‏@halfbob 50 secs50 seconds ago
    @MSmithsonPB You mean "No Change" for LAB and "Up One" for CON with Panelbase, surely?

    pistols at dawn...?
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 52,135
    NickPalmer said:

    DavidL said:

    It is odd that there is such a change in voter retention all of a sudden and if that is what is driving the change there has to be a question mark. I wonder how many of the ex Labour supporters were in Scotland. If it was a disproportionate number that would certainly affect voter retention.

    That said, an excellent poll for the Tories putting the last of the phone pollsters on their side. A bet on Labour winning most votes is now a bet on the internet pollsters being more accurate than the phones.

    Isn't ComRes a phone poll? I'm a bit sceptical of their sudden swing to Labour, as I am about the Ipsos Mori sudden swing to the Tories. Is there any data suggesting that phone polls have higher variability?

    ComRes midweek polls are phone. Their only internet polls are for the Indy on Sunday, which are few and far between.
  • PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    OT Anyone used walnut oil to cook with? I hear its delicious used with green/fine beans - and flash fried lamb. Any other suggestions? I use a lot of toasted sesame oil and adore it.
  • Moses_Moses_ Posts: 4,865
    Anorak said:

    For Sunil: IPSOS Mori, IPsos MORi, Ipsos-Moori, MORI-Ipsos, Ipsos=Mori, Ipsos/MORI, Ipsos mORI

    Well this should blow Sunils mind..... :-)

    ıɹoɯ sosdı
  • PrinceofTarantoPrinceofTaranto Posts: 335
    peter_from_putney said:

    Sean_F said:

    Anorak said:

    Scott_P said:

    @PanelbaseMD: New (29/04-30/04) @panelbase #GE2015 poll results: LAB 34% (NC), CON 32% (+1%), UKIP 17% (NC), LD 8% (+1), GRN 4% (NC). Tables up later.

    Disappointing. But movement in the right direction.

    That's a trawler-full of kippers, though.
    Panelbase have never shown the Conservatives better than level-pegging.
    No one else is showing UKIP as having 17% either. Therein lies the difference between Panelbase and the others.
    Other than Survation on 18% with Labour on 30%
  • Chris123Chris123 Posts: 174
    peter_from_putney said:

    MikeSmithson said:

    DavidL said:

    Apologies if I am coming late to this after a busy day but the Sporting Index lead for the Tories on mid points now seems to be 20. That is as large as I can recall seeing it.

    20 +, say 25 Lib Dems vs, say, 50 SNP. Still favouring Ed for PM, particularly when the Green has said she will support Labour and the SDLP votes but seriously close now.

    Correct. The 20 seat CON lead on SPIN is the highest it has been this campaign. The firm tells me that this is where the money is going

    Except your money, eh Mike?

    Oops sorry, Mike for that rather childish and insensitive joke. Do please forgive me.
    I'd say it is safe to say that the Conservatives have made some headway - I'd put it down to the SNP fear factor. But that cow has been milked for all it's worth.

    I still think Miliband has a chance. It's all about the economy - macroeonomically the UK is in better shape than where it was 5 years ago - unemploymentnumbers are down, GDP figures have increased, etc. But is the average voter better off? That's the point Miliband should be making. Microeconomically the average person (voter) isn't better off. Wages haven't grown, energy prices have increased, rental prices have shot through the roof....
  • OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 9,143
    isam said:

    SPUD

    The trewf

    10 polls this week, 8 pollsters (27/11)

    CON +11 (+3)
    LAB -5 (-18)
    UKIP NC (+7)
    LD -2 ( -1)
    GREEN +4 (+5)

    Your SPUD figures for this week coincide with the conclusion I drew from the MORI poll - Labour undecideds breaking for Tories and Greens. Spooky.
  • Scrapheap_as_wasScrapheap_as_was Posts: 10,069
    Cammo rating improved a lot too I believe.... sometimes seen as important on pb the mori leader ratings.


  • RodCrosbyRodCrosby Posts: 7,737
    edited April 2015
    Sandpit said:

    FPT - This is the best explanation as to what will actually happen as regards Parliamentary procedure.

    'This is different to 2010, because the Coalition Agreement between the Conservatives and the Liberal Democrats meant that everyone could see that Cameron had the votes. I'm not sure that an informal arrangement has the same credibility.'

    Not quite. You will recall that Brown resigned and Cameron was appointed before the Coalition agreement was formally agreed.

    The cause of his resignation was therefore not that Cameron had the votes, but that Brown knew he didn't, which was the Constitutionally correct analysis and action, the same as Heath in 1974.

    Which again brings us to the 2015 scenario. If Cameron realises, by the actions and noises from other parties, that there is no way he can pass a Queen's Speech, then he ought to go immediately, or at least as soon as that is apparent, and the Queen will send for Miliband.

    If there is genuine doubt - which there may be, since he is predicted to be leading the largest party - he may properly hang on to test Parliament's opinion.

    If and when Parliament rejects him, his moment of truth will have arrived. He doesn't have the votes, and will resign. The fact that nobody else may have the votes either is not part of his calculations. He is constitutionally obliged to resign, and the Queen is constitutionally obliged to send for Miliband.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,964
    Mr. Me, I'd be surprised if UKIP took the seat. I would not be if they took enough Labour votes to allow a Conservative victory.

    Mr. Garner, had little from the Conservatives here but quite a bit from Labour (and the odd thing from UKIP). Can't comment on Wakefield, no idea what's going on there.
  • Chris123Chris123 Posts: 174
    The economic recovery hasn't trickled down into the average person's wallet. And Miliband should make the case that he will put policies in place that will do so. (Whether they will actually achieve this is another question.)
  • Scrapheap_as_wasScrapheap_as_was Posts: 10,069
    peter_from_putney said:

    MikeSmithson said:

    DavidL said:

    Apologies if I am coming late to this after a busy day but the Sporting Index lead for the Tories on mid points now seems to be 20. That is as large as I can recall seeing it.

    20 +, say 25 Lib Dems vs, say, 50 SNP. Still favouring Ed for PM, particularly when the Green has said she will support Labour and the SDLP votes but seriously close now.

    Correct. The 20 seat CON lead on SPIN is the highest it has been this campaign. The firm tells me that this is where the money is going

    Except your money, eh Mike?

    Oops sorry Mike for that rather childish and insensitive joke. Do please forgive me.
    Really, stab me that's a turn up

    What have we found under the panel base bonnet then to query?
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,723
    KentRising said:

    Ps, a strong Cammo showing tonight could seal the momentum for the blues.

    But he's not going to be able have a strong showing - because he is going to come under continuous attack re cutting child benefit.

    As I posted earlier, I suspect he will have to rule out cutting child benefit.

    If he tries just giving a waffly / evasive answer he is guaranteed to get a very hostile audience reaction.

    He has to say something definite to diffuse the issue.

    Indeed, he may as well rule out cutting child benefit - as he is very unlikely to get a majority so he won't have the opportunity to do it anyway.
  • peter_from_putneypeter_from_putney Posts: 6,956
    steve_garner said:

    Morris_Dancer said:

    Mr. Garner, you're in Balls' constituency, yes? What do you think of his prospects?

    I reckon around 80% chance of a hold. A loss is credible, but an outside chance.

    Morris_Dancer said:

    Mr. Garner, you're in Balls' constituency, yes? What do you think of his prospects?

    I reckon around 80% chance of a hold. A loss is credible, but an outside chance.

    Hello Morris, yes I'm in Morley. I reckon it's tight but he'll probably hang on, just. There's been plenty of literature from the Cons and today Mrs Garner received a letter from the PM referencing Liam Byrne's infamous note. Osborne was in Morley a few days ago too so clearly the Cons think it's a possibility. OGH rubbished me a few weeks ago for saying Wakefield is also tight but I work there and reckon it's also going to be close.

    Apprarances can be very deceptive in an 80,000+mixed constituency. I've recently returned from a rural part of the Dewsbury, West Yorks, which was overwhelmed with posters for the Tory incumbent MP, Simon Reevell, so much so that you would be forgiven for believing that he was the only candidate. The sad truth is that he's about to be beaten very comfortably by the Labour candidate, with around a 2,000 - 2,500 majority would be my guess.
  • Scrapheap_as_wasScrapheap_as_was Posts: 10,069
    Scrapheap_as_was said:

    peter_from_putney said:

    MikeSmithson said:

    DavidL said:

    Apologies if I am coming late to this after a busy day but the Sporting Index lead for the Tories on mid points now seems to be 20. That is as large as I can recall seeing it.

    20 +, say 25 Lib Dems vs, say, 50 SNP. Still favouring Ed for PM, particularly when the Green has said she will support Labour and the SDLP votes but seriously close now.

    Correct. The 20 seat CON lead on SPIN is the highest it has been this campaign. The firm tells me that this is where the money is going

    Except your money, eh Mike?

    Oops sorry Mike for that rather childish and insensitive joke. Do please forgive me.
    Really, stab me that's a turn up

    What have we found under the panel base bonnet then to query?
    Ogh strikes, the panel base was done later than mori so is more upto date

    That's holed it, oh hang on..
  • Chris123Chris123 Posts: 174
    p
    SimonStClare said:

    Mike Smithson ‏@MSmithsonPB 2 mins2 minutes ago
    LAB at 2% lead with Panelbase. LAB 34% (NC), CON 32% (+1%), UKIP 17% (NC), LD 8% (+1), GRN 4% (NC)

    Steevie ‏@halfbob 50 secs50 seconds ago
    @MSmithsonPB You mean "No Change" for LAB and "Up One" for CON with Panelbase, surely?

    pistols at dawn...?


    It's all about the trend which has been the Conservatives best friend (this week). On another note, I find their UKIP and Green numbers more plausible than IsPos Morris.

  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 52,135
    Moses_ said:

    Anorak said:

    For Sunil: IPSOS Mori, IPsos MORi, Ipsos-Moori, MORI-Ipsos, Ipsos=Mori, Ipsos/MORI, Ipsos mORI

    Well this should blow Sunils mind..... :-)

    ıɹoɯ sosdı
    I can go one better:

    Ипсос МОРИ

    :):):)
  • SimonStClareSimonStClare Posts: 7,976
    chris g ‏@chrisg0000 6 mins6 minutes ago

    #Conservative Lead
    +6 #Ashcroft
    +5 #Mori
    +3 #BMG #ICM #Survation
    +1 #Opinium #TNS #Yougov

    Tie #Comres

    #Labour Lead
    +2 #Panelbase
    +3 #Populus
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    Scrapheap_as_was said:


    Ogh strikes, the panel base was done later than mori so is more upto date

    You mean Panelbase has found a more up to date swingback than MORI did...
  • PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    Thought you'd like this from Private Eye

    https://twitter.com/PlatoSays/status/593821367973326848
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 52,135
    edited April 2015
    Plato said:

    OT Anyone used walnut oil to cook with? I hear its delicious used with green/fine beans - and flash fried lamb. Any other suggestions? I use a lot of toasted sesame oil and adore it.

    A Tory canvasser once tested me. I ate his bacon butty with some fava beans and a nice Chianti.

    :lol:
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,723
    BBC1 6pm headline better for Con than expected - described as coalition row over child benefit, ie focus not on Con cutting it.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 43,483
    PrinceofTaranto said:

    Sunil_Prasannan said:

    PrinceofTaranto said:

    MikeSmithson said:

    PrinceofTaranto said:

    Patrick McLoughin has apparently come out and confirmed the next Thames Crossing will be in Thurrock. Must be the end of JDPs chances there surely?

    He is not allowed to make such announcements during election campaigns. That breaks all the rules

    Well apparently he just did .There were 4 options I believe and he has said it will be one of the 2 Thurrock ones.JDP is not happy as she wanted a Canvey option .
    I can only think the Canvey option would be far more expensive as the Thames Estuary is far wider there.
    Maybe but poor Thurrock becomes the dumping ground again
    I must admit that my first thought was how close it was planned to Shornemead Fort on the Kent bank:
    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Shornemead_Fort

    (It appears to go between it and Gravesend).

    And even further off-topic: am I the only to be really pi**ed off with the new tollgateless Dartford Crossing?
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,500
    SNP have style , no old bus for Nicola.....https://twitter.com/Cuphook108
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 52,135
    edited April 2015
    SimonStClare said:

    chris g ‏@chrisg0000 6 mins6 minutes ago

    #Conservative Lead
    +6 #Ashcroft
    +5 #Mori
    +3 #BMG #ICM #Survation
    +1 #Opinium #TNS #Yougov

    Tie #Comres

    #Labour Lead
    +2 #Panelbase
    +3 #Populus

    So many Tory outliers this week :sunglasses:
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 52,135
    Estimating an 800 sample for Panelbase (tables... must have tables...!), overall ELBOW lead still 0.1% for the Cons, non-YouGov-only still Con 1.0%, in spite of Panelbase.
  • SimonStClareSimonStClare Posts: 7,976
    Sunil_Prasannan said:

    SimonStClare said:

    chris g ‏@chrisg0000 6 mins6 minutes ago

    #Conservative Lead
    +6 #Ashcroft
    +5 #Mori
    +3 #BMG #ICM #Survation
    +1 #Opinium #TNS #Yougov

    Tie #Comres

    #Labour Lead
    +2 #Panelbase
    +3 #Populus

    So many Tory outliers this week :sunglasses:
    Only the Ipri-Mosis poll was an outlier...! :lol:
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 52,135
    Plato said:

    Thought you'd like this from Private Eye

    https://twitter.com/PlatoSays/status/593821367973326848

    Needs to be updated for Panelbase and BMG :lol:
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    RodCrosby said:

    Under the "old" L&N model, these numbers would be pointing to a Tory landslide...

    Can you explain why? I thought the old L&N model inferred a certain swingback etc far out before the election but with seven days to go until an election why would it be pointing to a landslide?
  • Ishmael_XIshmael_X Posts: 3,664
    edited April 2015
    Sunil_Prasannan said:

    Plato said:

    OT Anyone used walnut oil to cook with? I hear its delicious used with green/fine beans - and flash fried lamb. Any other suggestions? I use a lot of toasted sesame oil and adore it.

    A Tory canvasser once tested me. I ate his bacon butty with some fava beans and a nice Chianti.

    :lol:
    "a big Amarone" in the book, unpedantically speaking. Hollywood dumbing down again.
  • Bond_James_BondBond_James_Bond Posts: 1,939
    Ipsos MORI need to get with the programme.

    - What will decide this election is the Lib-Lab switchers
    - the Tories need an 11% lead to win
    - it looks bad for the blues.

    I think I covered off the main points there.
  • chestnutchestnut Posts: 7,341
    MikeL said:


    But he's not going to be able have a strong showing - because he is going to come under continuous attack re cutting child benefit.

    As I posted earlier, I suspect he will have to rule out cutting child benefit.

    If he tries just giving a waffly / evasive answer he is guaranteed to get a very hostile audience reaction.

    He has to say something definite to diffuse the issue.

    Indeed, he may as well rule out cutting child benefit - as he is very unlikely to get a majority so he won't have the opportunity to do it anyway.

    If he's been properly briefed he will know that YG polled Restricting Child Benefit to three children just six weeks ago and it is massively supported by the public at 73-18.


This discussion has been closed.