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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Marf for the evening and David Herdson with the half-time P

SystemSystem Posts: 12,217
edited April 2015 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Marf for the evening and David Herdson with the half-time PB Poll Average score

The profusion of election-period polls means that it’s now possible to produce a PB poll average figure for shorter periods than before. Consequently, I’ve split the period from April 1 to May 6 into two parts and am using these instead, the first of which is for the scores for up to April 21:

Read the full story here


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Comments

  • Can I just thank Alex Salmond for making our canvassing so much easier/fun today.

    Short of him promising to put a special tax on the English to fund free Unicorns and gold bars for all Scots, he couldn't be more helpful to the Tory cause.
  • JonCisBackJonCisBack Posts: 911
    (Optimistic repost FPT!)

    Interesting anecdote from my daughter's school today:

    All 5 candidates for Hertford and Stortford did a 6th form hustings/Q&A thing. Then 175 6th formers voted, results as follows (Change on share in H&S last time in brackets FWIW)

    Mark Prisk (Con) 38.8% (-14.4)
    Green 28.6 (+28.6)
    Lab 22.9 (+9.1)
    LD 7.4 (-18.6)
    UKIP 2.8 (-0.3)

    So "Con hold" even amongst 6th formers! Have to say I was a bit surprised. In 1992 in my school's mock election LD beat Con by ~15% despite the local result (Stratford-on-Avon) being more than 2:1 the other way (Labour nowhere...)

    LDs brand absolutely shot amongst the kids and UKIP lost its deposit.

    #JustABitOfFun
  • taffystaffys Posts: 9,753
    FPT

    Very many sitcoms worse than Rab C.

    Are You Being Served
    Robin's Nest
    Outnumbered
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,223
    FPT
    JackW said:



    As each general election passes the willingness of the voters to publically display their allegiances seems to diminish.

    Within Herts I've seen far fewer posters for all parties with the notable exception of Watford where Dorothy Thornhill seems to hold sway.

    Even the fields and rural trees seem to have lost the appetite to vote Conservative.

    I was in Toronto last October during their elections and it seemed just about everyone wanted to display their allegiance to one side or another. And I was in Munich last March and there was a lot of signage up for their elections.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,415

    Can I just thank Alex Salmond for making our canvassing so much easier/fun today.

    Short of him promising to put a special tax on the English to fund free Unicorns and gold bars for all Scots, he couldn't be more helpful to the Tory cause.

    Whereabouts ?
  • anotherDaveanotherDave Posts: 6,746
    Re: UKIP
    iSam made the point earlier that year-on-year, UKIP VI is up.
  • Pulpstar said:

    Can I just thank Alex Salmond for making our canvassing so much easier/fun today.

    Short of him promising to put a special tax on the English to fund free Unicorns and gold bars for all Scots, he couldn't be more helpful to the Tory cause.

    Whereabouts ?
    West Yorkshire.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,706
    It is just me, or has the campaign gone off the boil a touch
  • Eh_ehm_a_ehEh_ehm_a_eh Posts: 552
    Sitcoms is it? i'll give you pish sitcoms boy.
    Terry and June. Middle class suburban Surrey tory pish.
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100

    Pulpstar said:

    Can I just thank Alex Salmond for making our canvassing so much easier/fun today.

    Short of him promising to put a special tax on the English to fund free Unicorns and gold bars for all Scots, he couldn't be more helpful to the Tory cause.

    Whereabouts ?
    West Yorkshire.
    Sheffield Hallam maybe?
  • GrandioseGrandiose Posts: 2,323
    isam, MikeK, any other UKIP supporters

    If UKIP get 4 seats, say, I'm sure UKIP will tell us that it's a good achievement. But do you think party members will be disappointed?
  • Speedy said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Can I just thank Alex Salmond for making our canvassing so much easier/fun today.

    Short of him promising to put a special tax on the English to fund free Unicorns and gold bars for all Scots, he couldn't be more helpful to the Tory cause.

    Whereabouts ?
    West Yorkshire.
    Sheffield Hallam maybe?
    Sheffield Hallam hasn't been in West Yorkshire since 1974
  • Eh_ehm_a_ehEh_ehm_a_eh Posts: 552
    Pulpstar said:

    Can I just thank Alex Salmond for making our canvassing so much easier/fun today.

    Short of him promising to put a special tax on the English to fund free Unicorns and gold bars for all Scots, he couldn't be more helpful to the Tory cause.

    Whereabouts ?
    Narnia East.

  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    tlg86 said:

    FPT

    JackW said:



    As each general election passes the willingness of the voters to publically display their allegiances seems to diminish.

    Within Herts I've seen far fewer posters for all parties with the notable exception of Watford where Dorothy Thornhill seems to hold sway.

    Even the fields and rural trees seem to have lost the appetite to vote Conservative.

    I was in Toronto last October during their elections and it seemed just about everyone wanted to display their allegiance to one side or another. And I was in Munich last March and there was a lot of signage up for their elections.
    Still virtually none in Leicester or Leics.

    Nobody cares about the election here as far as I can tell from posters or conversations. Bear in mind we have council and Mayoral elections too, some of which are more competetive than the safe seat ones. Leicester City's come back from the dead (starting auspiciously on Easter Saturday...) is on plenty of lips.

    LCFC 5: LibLabConKipSnip 0 in conversations today.
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    taffys said:
    "Tories today revealed they are bringing youth members of America’s Republican Party to help their campaign in the final week in key marginals, including Enfield North. The Young Republican National Federation is organising the trip to begin on May 2."

    That will go well.
    Is Enfield North a Tea Party stronghold?
  • Ave_itAve_it Posts: 2,411
    CON on their way to second half win!
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,415
    I can give you an address to canvas in Guiseley if you like, Tory-UKIP waverers, I swear...
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,223
    Grandiose said:

    isam, MikeK, any other UKIP supporters

    If UKIP get 4 seats, say, I'm sure UKIP will tell us that it's a good achievement. But do you think party members will be disappointed?

    Those that don't get FPTP may be disappointed. Farage not winning his seat would probably be a disappointment, but I don't expect Ukip to fade after May 7th.

  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548

    Sitcoms is it? i'll give you pish sitcoms boy.
    Terry and June. Middle class suburban Surrey tory pish.

    Nope. Certainly pisspoor but still not getting into my top 3. I might consider later series of Not Going Out though.
  • anotherDaveanotherDave Posts: 6,746
    edited April 2015
    Grandiose said:

    isam, MikeK, any other UKIP supporters

    If UKIP get 4 seats, say, I'm sure UKIP will tell us that it's a good achievement. But do you think party members will be disappointed?

    I'm not a UKIP party member, but I would be.

    Rallings and Thrasher predicted them 400 local government gains though, so there'll be positive things to focus on even if the MP tally is disappointing.
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 17,834

    Speedy said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Can I just thank Alex Salmond for making our canvassing so much easier/fun today.

    Short of him promising to put a special tax on the English to fund free Unicorns and gold bars for all Scots, he couldn't be more helpful to the Tory cause.

    Whereabouts ?
    West Yorkshire.
    Sheffield Hallam maybe?
    Sheffield Hallam hasn't been in West Yorkshire since 1974
    Tsk. Sheffield is in the West Riding. It's never been in West Yorkshire.
  • Pulpstar said:

    I can give you an address to canvas in Guiseley if you like, Tory-UKIP waverers, I swear...

    Cheers, that's where it is having the most effect, Con to UKIP switchers, secondly it is firming up the Tory vote and thirdly some, those thinking of switching to Lab.

    The cynic might say it was timed as the postal votes went out.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,223

    tlg86 said:

    FPT

    JackW said:



    As each general election passes the willingness of the voters to publically display their allegiances seems to diminish.

    Within Herts I've seen far fewer posters for all parties with the notable exception of Watford where Dorothy Thornhill seems to hold sway.

    Even the fields and rural trees seem to have lost the appetite to vote Conservative.

    I was in Toronto last October during their elections and it seemed just about everyone wanted to display their allegiance to one side or another. And I was in Munich last March and there was a lot of signage up for their elections.
    Still virtually none in Leicester or Leics.

    Nobody cares about the election here as far as I can tell from posters or conversations. Bear in mind we have council and Mayoral elections too, some of which are more competetive than the safe seat ones. Leicester City's come back from the dead (starting auspiciously on Easter Saturday...) is on plenty of lips.

    LCFC 5: LibLabConKipSnip 0 in conversations today.
    I really hope you stay up, I enjoyed my visit to Leicester, even though we didn't get all three points.
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    edited April 2015
    taffys said:

    FPT

    Very many sitcoms worse than Rab C.

    Are You Being Served

    How very dare you play fast and loose with Mrs Slocombe's pussy .

  • Ishmael_XIshmael_X Posts: 3,664
    edited April 2015
    taffys said:

    FPT

    Very many sitcoms worse than Rab C.

    Are You Being Served
    Robin's Nest
    Outnumbered

    Never heard of the other two, but I've always been a sucker for a Mrs Slocombe's pussy joke.

    It won an award every time she showed it.
  • MikeSmithsonMikeSmithson Posts: 7,382
    Speedy said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Can I just thank Alex Salmond for making our canvassing so much easier/fun today.

    Short of him promising to put a special tax on the English to fund free Unicorns and gold bars for all Scots, he couldn't be more helpful to the Tory cause.

    Whereabouts ?
    West Yorkshire.
    Sheffield Hallam maybe?
    If TSE is working hard for the Tories in Hallam he is actually helping Labour

  • Speedy said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Can I just thank Alex Salmond for making our canvassing so much easier/fun today.

    Short of him promising to put a special tax on the English to fund free Unicorns and gold bars for all Scots, he couldn't be more helpful to the Tory cause.

    Whereabouts ?
    West Yorkshire.
    Sheffield Hallam maybe?
    Sheffield Hallam hasn't been in West Yorkshire since 1974
    Tsk. Sheffield is in the West Riding. It's never been in West Yorkshire.
    Oh the shame.

    I shall do 100 lines as penance, of Sheffield has never been in West Yorkshire
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    Rab C Nesbitt was outstanding. The episode when he's sharing a cell with Timothy Spall is inspired.
  • MP_SEMP_SE Posts: 3,642
    edited April 2015
    tlg86 said:

    Grandiose said:

    isam, MikeK, any other UKIP supporters

    If UKIP get 4 seats, say, I'm sure UKIP will tell us that it's a good achievement. But do you think party members will be disappointed?

    Those that don't get FPTP may be disappointed. Farage not winning his seat would probably be a disappointment, but I don't expect Ukip to fade after May 7th.

    I think as long as we are in the EU, UKIP will exist. This idea that they implode after the general election does not seem likely. In my opinion a Labour government which will have more of everything UKIP voters despise will keep their members on board.

    UKIP under the leadership of Steven Woolfe or Douglas Carswell could mean they appeal to a wider audience which is needed to make serious inroads in a FPTP system.
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    Ave_it said:

    CON on their way to second half win!

    I think we're heading for extra-time and penalties with Labour playing for England ....

    Ed Miliband Will Never Score A Penalty



  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100

    Speedy said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Can I just thank Alex Salmond for making our canvassing so much easier/fun today.

    Short of him promising to put a special tax on the English to fund free Unicorns and gold bars for all Scots, he couldn't be more helpful to the Tory cause.

    Whereabouts ?
    West Yorkshire.
    Sheffield Hallam maybe?
    If TSE is working hard for the Tories in Hallam he is actually helping Labour

    I know, it would be nice to know if he was canvassing for Clegg.
  • Speedy said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Can I just thank Alex Salmond for making our canvassing so much easier/fun today.

    Short of him promising to put a special tax on the English to fund free Unicorns and gold bars for all Scots, he couldn't be more helpful to the Tory cause.

    Whereabouts ?
    West Yorkshire.
    Sheffield Hallam maybe?
    If TSE is working hard for the Tories in Hallam he is actually helping Labour

    Tsk, I'll be voting Lib Dem on the day.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,972
    edited April 2015
    Speedy said:

    Speedy said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Can I just thank Alex Salmond for making our canvassing so much easier/fun today.

    Short of him promising to put a special tax on the English to fund free Unicorns and gold bars for all Scots, he couldn't be more helpful to the Tory cause.

    Whereabouts ?
    West Yorkshire.
    Sheffield Hallam maybe?
    If TSE is working hard for the Tories in Hallam he is actually helping Labour

    I know, it would be nice to know if he was canvassing for Clegg.
    I could never go canvassing for the Lib Dems, I don't own any sandals, and I'm very fussy when it comes to my footwear.

    My job has to been to reassure the Lib Dems in Sheffield that their man is safe.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,415

    Speedy said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Can I just thank Alex Salmond for making our canvassing so much easier/fun today.

    Short of him promising to put a special tax on the English to fund free Unicorns and gold bars for all Scots, he couldn't be more helpful to the Tory cause.

    Whereabouts ?
    West Yorkshire.
    Sheffield Hallam maybe?
    If TSE is working hard for the Tories in Hallam he is actually helping Labour

    Plenty of Tory signs up in Dore and Totley Mike - also I checked the locals, Hallam shouldn't even be in the remotest of doubt... with ANY Lib Dem candidate.
  • NeilNeil Posts: 7,983
    o/t ( and fpt!) The gay marriage referendum in Ireland (some political betting light relief after the UK general election) has produced some good campaign videos. This is probably my favourite:

    www.youtube.com/watch?v=AkwYEhjjZhs

    A no result would be a serious two fingers to the luvvies of Ireland. Almost every Irish comedian, singer, actor or sportsperson you can think of has rowed in behind yes
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    antifrank said:

    Rab C Nesbitt was outstanding. The episode when he's sharing a cell with Timothy Spall is inspired.

    The scottish by-election episode did provide an accurate forecast and underlying reasons as to why the SNP is sweeping the board.
  • tysontyson Posts: 6,117
    JackW said:

    taffys said:

    FPT

    Very many sitcoms worse than Rab C.

    Are You Being Served

    How very dare you play fast and loose with Mrs Slocombe's pussy .

    Love Thy Neighbour can never be bettered.
  • DairDair Posts: 6,108
    dr_spyn said:

    Jess Brammar ‏@jessbrammar 44m44 minutes ago
    We weren't able to take cameraman into meeting where Gordon Brown speaking tonight - was a small campaign event & they hadn't invited media

    Must have been a puppetry practise session.
  • DairDair Posts: 6,108
    Speedy said:

    Dair said:

    Speedy said:

    Dair said:

    Ave_it said:

    We (CON) just need to get on the phone to SNP.

    'You back us and our first act will be to give you independence'.

    Then we get rid of them from the UK Parliament and its CON majority for ever! And we can all have unlimited tax relief on our pensions!!!

    People need to remember the example of Czechoslovakia.

    Within 18 months of a No vote in both Slovakia and the Czech Republic, both went their own way without a further vote. It was politically expedient.
    The Czechs didn't want to continue to fund the Slovak liabilities in the post-communist slump.
    But what will the SNP do with its independence that it can't do now?
    So one side wanted to get away from the debts of another.

    Interesting.
    You will have to make scotland an economic wasteland that costs far far more to maintain than it's income to make the UK to abandon it to it's fate.

    Scotland costs just about more that 7 billion pounds extra a year to maintain while North Sea Oil revenues at max is just about more than 8 billion a year, so at max the benefit is very small but in 10 years time it will turn to a net loss of around 10 billion a year, so the question is if propping up scotland from collapsing is worth it or not.

    Same goes for the eurozone ironically.
    To get the true figure you need to discount the £10bn subsidy Scotland pays to England (on average) each year. England gets about £3bn per annum from Scotland before any Oil and Gas Revenues are tallied.

    But the idea that once those revenues are gone Westminster will cast Scotland off is also farcical.

    You only need to look at Wales which 100 years ago was one of the richest countries on earth and is now one of the poorest regions of Europe. Once Westminster has syphoned off the money from natural resources (coal in Wales case) it will then apply its vice to the wealth of the people and slowly but surely diminish the wealth of the Nation/Region until it is in poverty and genuinely reliant.
  • DairDair Posts: 6,108

    Can I just thank Alex Salmond for making our canvassing so much easier/fun today.

    Short of him promising to put a special tax on the English to fund free Unicorns and gold bars for all Scots, he couldn't be more helpful to the Tory cause.

    Don't think Salmond has any intention of copying Jim Murphy.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 54,027
    Excellent cartoon Marf.


    I notice the mid point for the Lib Dems on Sporting Index is now 24. Have I not been paying attention or has that slipped a little?




    The formula Lib Dem + 14 > SNP looks ever more problematic.

  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,415
    edited April 2015
    " England gets about £3bn per annum from Scotland before any Oil and Gas Revenues are tallied."

    I'm more pro-Scottish than most here but that's a nonsense.

    The offsea GERS in the 80s were pretty criminal to Scotland mind.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,587
    Farage did pretty well in the Davis interview I thought, less of the overly jocular stuff, much more reasonable. Got a bit hot under the collar when Davis started quoting some UKIP cllr (or candidate), but I do actually agree with him that candidates from other parties say and do bad things and don't get as much prominence. Less good toward the end, but that might just be because it was all bogged down in detail, which even though I've read the manifestos is not as interesting to me to follow.
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    tlg86 said:

    tlg86 said:

    FPT

    JackW said:



    As each general election passes the willingness of the voters to publically display their allegiances seems to diminish.

    Within Herts I've seen far fewer posters for all parties with the notable exception of Watford where Dorothy Thornhill seems to hold sway.

    Even the fields and rural trees seem to have lost the appetite to vote Conservative.

    I was in Toronto last October during their elections and it seemed just about everyone wanted to display their allegiance to one side or another. And I was in Munich last March and there was a lot of signage up for their elections.
    Still virtually none in Leicester or Leics.

    Nobody cares about the election here as far as I can tell from posters or conversations. Bear in mind we have council and Mayoral elections too, some of which are more competetive than the safe seat ones. Leicester City's come back from the dead (starting auspiciously on Easter Saturday...) is on plenty of lips.

    LCFC 5: LibLabConKipSnip 0 in conversations today.
    I really hope you stay up, I enjoyed my visit to Leicester, even though we didn't get all three points.
    Which team is it that you came with?
  • From earlier

    Celebrity Cruises UK‏@CelebrityUK·3h3 hours ago
    Did you know our wine tower holds 2,800 bottles of wine and Screaming Eagle is most expensive at $7,000 a bottle!
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787

    Speedy said:

    Speedy said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Can I just thank Alex Salmond for making our canvassing so much easier/fun today.

    Short of him promising to put a special tax on the English to fund free Unicorns and gold bars for all Scots, he couldn't be more helpful to the Tory cause.

    Whereabouts ?
    West Yorkshire.
    Sheffield Hallam maybe?
    If TSE is working hard for the Tories in Hallam he is actually helping Labour

    I know, it would be nice to know if he was canvassing for Clegg.
    I could never go canvassing for the Lib Dems, I don't own any sandals, and I'm very fussy when it comes to my footwear.

    My job has to been to reassure the Lib Dems in Sheffield that their man is safe.
    Paddy Ashdown rescinded the rule that LibDem canvassers had to wear sandals seven days a week.

    You can get an exemption chit from the Constituency agent if you bung the campaign £100 and rustle up a broccoli quiche for the canvassing team. Beards are also optional .... for the woman.

  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 43,378
    edited April 2015
    antifrank said:

    Rab C Nesbitt was outstanding. The episode when he's sharing a cell with Timothy Spall is inspired.

    You are not only a person of intelligence, but also one of taste and critical discernment.


  • DairDair Posts: 6,108

    Sitcoms is it? i'll give you pish sitcoms boy.
    Terry and June. Middle class suburban Surrey tory pish.

    There is a good argument to be had whether Terry and June was a sitcom or one of those "Charlie says" type public information films. How else do you think British Leyland shifted all those Brown Allegros.
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,207
    More leaflets including one from the Lib Dems which is dressed up to look like a free local paper.

    Claiming entire credit for the 8 billion more for NHS AND claiming tories oppose it! (bit cheeky).

    Another leaflet claiming the tory candidate was useless for failing to stop something the Lib Dem mP.... failed to stop.

    Plus more posts on facebook from the Councillor (LD) still making unfounded accusations about the tories,, but at least he given up on the "no blacks" smear now.

    For a place supposedly in the bag they really are putting the effort in (Clegg was here not that long ago too).

  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,223

    tlg86 said:

    tlg86 said:

    FPT

    JackW said:



    As each general election passes the willingness of the voters to publically display their allegiances seems to diminish.

    Within Herts I've seen far fewer posters for all parties with the notable exception of Watford where Dorothy Thornhill seems to hold sway.

    Even the fields and rural trees seem to have lost the appetite to vote Conservative.

    I was in Toronto last October during their elections and it seemed just about everyone wanted to display their allegiance to one side or another. And I was in Munich last March and there was a lot of signage up for their elections.
    Still virtually none in Leicester or Leics.

    Nobody cares about the election here as far as I can tell from posters or conversations. Bear in mind we have council and Mayoral elections too, some of which are more competetive than the safe seat ones. Leicester City's come back from the dead (starting auspiciously on Easter Saturday...) is on plenty of lips.

    LCFC 5: LibLabConKipSnip 0 in conversations today.
    I really hope you stay up, I enjoyed my visit to Leicester, even though we didn't get all three points.
    Which team is it that you came with?
    Arsenal. It's seems such a long time ago now and we were poor. After Leicester beat United I thought they'd be fine and then when Leicester came to the Emirates I was really puzzled by Leicester's league position. The manager and players deserve a lot of credit for sticking at it and hopefully they finish the job.
  • MikeSmithsonMikeSmithson Posts: 7,382
    So what's the betting on tonight's YouGov? Mr Newton Dunn has not Tweeted
  • DairDair Posts: 6,108
    Speedy said:

    taffys said:
    "Tories today revealed they are bringing youth members of America’s Republican Party to help their campaign in the final week in key marginals, including Enfield North. The Young Republican National Federation is organising the trip to begin on May 2."

    That will go well.
    Is Enfield North a Tea Party stronghold?
    Maybe UKIP have a point....
  • FregglesFreggles Posts: 3,486

    So what's the betting on tonight's YouGov? Mr Newton Dunn has not Tweeted

    Even stevens then?
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    edited April 2015
    Dair said:

    Speedy said:

    Dair said:

    Speedy said:

    Dair said:

    Ave_it said:

    We (CON) just need to get on the phone to SNP.

    'You back us and our first act will be to give you independence'.

    Then we get rid of them from the UK Parliament and its CON majority for ever! And we can all have unlimited tax relief on our pensions!!!

    People need to remember the example of Czechoslovakia.

    Within 18 months of a No vote in both Slovakia and the Czech Republic, both went their own way without a further vote. It was politically expedient.
    The Czechs didn't want to continue to fund the Slovak liabilities in the post-communist slump.
    But what will the SNP do with its independence that it can't do now?
    So one side wanted to get away from the debts of another.

    Interesting.
    You will have to make scotland an economic wasteland that costs far far more to maintain than it's income to make the UK to abandon it to it's fate.

    Scotland costs just about more that 7 billion pounds extra a year to maintain while North Sea Oil revenues at max is just about more than 8 billion a year, so at max the benefit is very small but in 10 years time it will turn to a net loss of around 10 billion a year, so the question is if propping up scotland from collapsing is worth it or not.

    Same goes for the eurozone ironically.
    To get the true figure you need to discount the £10bn subsidy Scotland pays to England (on average) each year. England gets about £3bn per annum from Scotland before any Oil and Gas Revenues are tallied.

    But the idea that once those revenues are gone Westminster will cast Scotland off is also farcical.

    You only need to look at Wales which 100 years ago was one of the richest countries on earth and is now one of the poorest regions of Europe. Once Westminster has syphoned off the money from natural resources (coal in Wales case) it will then apply its vice to the wealth of the people and slowly but surely diminish the wealth of the Nation/Region until it is in poverty and genuinely reliant.
    £10bn subsidy,£3bn per annum, Wales the richest country on earth 100 years ago?

    Where did you get those from, George Lucas or Dan Brown?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,587

    So what's the betting on tonight's YouGov? Mr Newton Dunn has not Tweeted

    Giving his ramping up of an MOE change, no tweeting probably means a 5 point shift.
  • Ave_itAve_it Posts: 2,411
    BIG POLL OUT 15 DAYS TIME!

    Sample size 40,000,000

    Margin of error 0.0%

    :lol:
  • YBarddCwscYBarddCwsc Posts: 7,172
    Dair said:

    Speedy said:

    Dair said:

    Speedy said:

    Dair said:

    Ave_it said:

    We (CON) just need to get on the phone to SNP.

    'You back us and our first act will be to give you independence'.

    Then we get rid of them from the UK Parliament and its CON majority for ever! And we can all have unlimited tax relief on our pensions!!!

    People need to remember the example of Czechoslovakia.

    Within 18 months of a No vote in both Slovakia and the Czech Republic, both went their own way without a further vote. It was politically expedient.
    The Czechs didn't want to continue to fund the Slovak liabilities in the post-communist slump.
    But what will the SNP do with its independence that it can't do now?
    So one side wanted to get away from the debts of another.

    Interesting.
    You will have to make scotland an economic wasteland that costs far far more to maintain than it's income to make the UK to abandon it to it's fate.

    Scotland costs just about more that 7 billion pounds extra a year to maintain while North Sea Oil revenues at max is just about more than 8 billion a year, so at max the benefit is very small but in 10 years time it will turn to a net loss of around 10 billion a year, so the question is if propping up scotland from collapsing is worth it or not.

    Same goes for the eurozone ironically.
    To get the true figure you need to discount the £10bn subsidy Scotland pays to England (on average) each year. England gets about £3bn per annum from Scotland before any Oil and Gas Revenues are tallied.

    But the idea that once those revenues are gone Westminster will cast Scotland off is also farcical.

    You only need to look at Wales which 100 years ago was one of the richest countries on earth and is now one of the poorest regions of Europe. Once Westminster has syphoned off the money from natural resources (coal in Wales case) it will then apply its vice to the wealth of the people and slowly but surely diminish the wealth of the Nation/Region until it is in poverty and genuinely reliant.
    Of course -- some of those who looted Wales were ... errr, Scottish, such as the Earls of Bute.
  • MikeSmithsonMikeSmithson Posts: 7,382
    My votes have been cast so for me the election is over.
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 32,688
    Grandiose said:

    isam, MikeK, any other UKIP supporters

    If UKIP get 4 seats, say, I'm sure UKIP will tell us that it's a good achievement. But do you think party members will be disappointed?

    I would be delighted for a number of reasons. Firstly because i believe it is incredibly difficult to break through and turn votes into seats under the FPTP system (although I am not an advocate for changing that) so 4 seats would be a great achievement. Secondly because I have been predicting for the last year on here that UKIP will get 12% of the vote and 4 -5 seats and would love to be correct... even if to be honest there is no real science behind my prediction just a combination of hope and realism.

    I think that as long as Farage and Carswell and 2 of those 4 seats then generally UKIP members would be very pleased. Personally I would also like to see Bill Etheridge in Dudley North win as that would be sensational but for all his hard work and optimism I don't see it happening. I am certainly not so bothered about Farage winning as I am not a big fan of his style of leadership.
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    Floater said:

    More leaflets including one from the Lib Dems which is dressed up to look like a free local paper.

    Claiming entire credit for the 8 billion more for NHS AND claiming tories oppose it! (bit cheeky).

    Another leaflet claiming the tory candidate was useless for failing to stop something the Lib Dem mP.... failed to stop.

    Plus more posts on facebook from the Councillor (LD) still making unfounded accusations about the tories,, but at least he given up on the "no blacks" smear now.

    For a place supposedly in the bag they really are putting the effort in (Clegg was here not that long ago too).

    Apologies old chap but which seat are you reporting on?

  • trawltrawl Posts: 142
    Grandiose. I'm not a member but guess that members will be disappointed and given a lesson in FPTP; will be interesting to compare number of votes for UKIP with those of the SNP! But if it were 4 seats I'm on 3-4 @ 7/1 recommended on here some time ago (? Isam but I'm not sure)
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,207
    JackW said:

    Floater said:

    More leaflets including one from the Lib Dems which is dressed up to look like a free local paper.

    Claiming entire credit for the 8 billion more for NHS AND claiming tories oppose it! (bit cheeky).

    Another leaflet claiming the tory candidate was useless for failing to stop something the Lib Dem mP.... failed to stop.

    Plus more posts on facebook from the Councillor (LD) still making unfounded accusations about the tories,, but at least he given up on the "no blacks" smear now.

    For a place supposedly in the bag they really are putting the effort in (Clegg was here not that long ago too).

    Apologies old chap but which seat are you reporting on?

    Sorry, Colchester.

    I had made that clear before but I should have reminded people.
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100

    My votes have been cast so for me the election is over.

    I would very much like too see how many have already voted and what have they voted to be a on a separate question in opinion polls.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,043

    My votes have been cast so for me the election is over.

    Did you go ahead with your fiendishly diabolical plot to subvert British democracy?
    :D
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787

    My votes have been cast so for me the election is over.

    Almost heresy on PB .... someone will report you to OGH.

  • welshowlwelshowl Posts: 4,464

    Dair said:

    Speedy said:

    Dair said:

    Speedy said:

    Dair said:

    Ave_it said:

    We (CON) just need to get on the phone to SNP.

    'You back us and our first act will be to give you independence'.

    Then we get rid of them from the UK Parliament and its CON majority for ever! And we can all have unlimited tax relief on our pensions!!!

    People need to remember the example of Czechoslovakia.

    Within 18 months of a No vote in both Slovakia and the Czech Republic, both went their own way without a further vote. It was politically expedient.
    The Czechs didn't want to continue to fund the Slovak liabilities in the post-communist slump.
    But what will the SNP do with its independence that it can't do now?
    So one side wanted to get away from the debts of another.

    Interesting.
    You will have to make scotland an economic wasteland that costs far far more to maintain than it's income to make the UK to abandon it to it's fate.

    Scotland costs just about more that 7 billion pounds extra a year to maintain while North Sea Oil revenues at max is just about more than 8 billion a year, so at max the benefit is very small but in 10 years time it will turn to a net loss of around 10 billion a year, so the question is if propping up scotland from collapsing is worth it or not.

    Same goes for the eurozone ironically.
    To get the true figure you need to discount the £10bn subsidy Scotland pays to England (on average) each year. England gets about £3bn per annum from Scotland before any Oil and Gas Revenues are tallied.

    But the idea that once those revenues are gone Westminster will cast Scotland off is also farcical.

    You only need to look at Wales which 100 years ago was one of the richest countries on earth and is now one of the poorest regions of Europe. Once Westminster has syphoned off the money from natural resources (coal in Wales case) it will then apply its vice to the wealth of the people and slowly but surely diminish the wealth of the Nation/Region until it is in poverty and genuinely reliant.
    Of course -- some of those who looted Wales were ... errr, Scottish, such as the Earls of Bute.
    What did the Marquess ( not a mere a Earl please) of Bute do for us, apart from the docks, Cardiff Castle, Cardiff Civic Centre, Roath Park running for a couple of miles through the city? Bloody Scots.
  • Ave_itAve_it Posts: 2,411

    My votes have been cast so for me the election is over.

    I trust you voted Conservative! :lol:
  • DairDair Posts: 6,108
    edited April 2015
    Pulpstar said:

    " England gets about £3bn per annum from Scotland before any Oil and Gas Revenues are tallied."

    I'm more pro-Scottish than most here but that's a nonsense.

    The offsea GERS in the 80s were pretty criminal to Scotland mind.

    Debt Interest is approx £4.5bn as no refund for QE holdings. UK Infrastructure Spending is about £2.5bn and the Defence overpayment is about £1.5bn. Plenty of other budgets such as F&CO add to this. £10bn is a pretty decent figure, so £3bn before Oil and Gas is fair.

    BTW the 1980s are NOTHING compared to the 50% to 70% of Scottish Revenue filched by Westminster between 1900 and 1928 when it was so embarrassing (and the Home Rule movement was kicking off) so the UK Government stopped recording the figures for 50 years.
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    Floater said:

    JackW said:

    Floater said:

    More leaflets including one from the Lib Dems which is dressed up to look like a free local paper.

    Claiming entire credit for the 8 billion more for NHS AND claiming tories oppose it! (bit cheeky).

    Another leaflet claiming the tory candidate was useless for failing to stop something the Lib Dem mP.... failed to stop.

    Plus more posts on facebook from the Councillor (LD) still making unfounded accusations about the tories,, but at least he given up on the "no blacks" smear now.

    For a place supposedly in the bag they really are putting the effort in (Clegg was here not that long ago too).

    Apologies old chap but which seat are you reporting on?

    Sorry, Colchester.

    I had made that clear before but I should have reminded people.
    No my fault entirely. You've mentioned it before but the old memory is failing ....

    I think you've noted it some time back IIRC but the grey matter is diminishing ....

    Did you say that previously, I don't recall ....

  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    tlg86 said:

    tlg86 said:

    tlg86 said:

    FPT

    JackW said:



    As each general election passes the willingness of the voters to publically display their allegiances seems to diminish.

    Within Herts I've seen far fewer posters for all parties with the notable exception of Watford where Dorothy Thornhill seems to hold sway.

    Even the fields and rural trees seem to have lost the appetite to vote Conservative.

    I was in Toronto last October during their elections and it seemed just about everyone wanted to display their allegiance to one side or another. And I was in Munich last March and there was a lot of signage up for their elections.
    Still virtually none in Leicester or Leics.

    Nobody cares about the election here as far as I can tell from posters or conversations. Bear in mind we have council and Mayoral elections too, some of which are more competetive than the safe seat ones. Leicester City's come back from the dead (starting auspiciously on Easter Saturday...) is on plenty of lips.

    LCFC 5: LibLabConKipSnip 0 in conversations today.
    I really hope you stay up, I enjoyed my visit to Leicester, even though we didn't get all three points.
    Which team is it that you came with?
    Arsenal. It's seems such a long time ago now and we were poor. After Leicester beat United I thought they'd be fine and then when Leicester came to the Emirates I was really puzzled by Leicester's league position. The manager and players deserve a lot of credit for sticking at it and hopefully they finish the job.
    I remember that match. It was our 3rd of the season. I recall Leicester drew 1 all last time we were in the prem and came close to ruining the unbeaten season at Highbury being 1 nil up in the final match. We played well in August and September. We have had a few other good games for little reward (Arsenal away, Spurs away, Liverpool away) but nothing seemed to go right until April, and hopefully May. The middle six months will be forgotton if we stay up.
  • DairDair Posts: 6,108
    Ave_it said:

    BIG POLL OUT 15 DAYS TIME!

    Sample size 40,000,000

    Margin of error 0.0%

    :lol:

    Margin or Error 0%?

    Not considering the postal votes then?
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    Floater said:

    JackW said:

    Floater said:

    More leaflets including one from the Lib Dems which is dressed up to look like a free local paper.

    Claiming entire credit for the 8 billion more for NHS AND claiming tories oppose it! (bit cheeky).

    Another leaflet claiming the tory candidate was useless for failing to stop something the Lib Dem mP.... failed to stop.

    Plus more posts on facebook from the Councillor (LD) still making unfounded accusations about the tories,, but at least he given up on the "no blacks" smear now.

    For a place supposedly in the bag they really are putting the effort in (Clegg was here not that long ago too).

    Apologies old chap but which seat are you reporting on?

    Sorry, Colchester.
    It might seem strange but if you have a good local party machine in a safe seat but no other local targets you're not going to soft peddle and not use it.

    And I get the impression that Sir Bob likes to play the "Mr Colchester" card and to do so you have to be up front and big with it.

  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,541

    Grandiose said:

    isam, MikeK, any other UKIP supporters

    If UKIP get 4 seats, say, I'm sure UKIP will tell us that it's a good achievement. But do you think party members will be disappointed?

    I would be delighted for a number of reasons. Firstly because i believe it is incredibly difficult to break through and turn votes into seats under the FPTP system (although I am not an advocate for changing that) so 4 seats would be a great achievement. Secondly because I have been predicting for the last year on here that UKIP will get 12% of the vote and 4 -5 seats and would love to be correct... even if to be honest there is no real science behind my prediction just a combination of hope and realism.

    I think that as long as Farage and Carswell and 2 of those 4 seats then generally UKIP members would be very pleased. Personally I would also like to see Bill Etheridge in Dudley North win as that would be sensational but for all his hard work and optimism I don't see it happening. I am certainly not so bothered about Farage winning as I am not a big fan of his style of leadership.
    4 seats and 4 million votes (and c350 new councillors) would be fine for UKIP.
  • DairDair Posts: 6,108

    Dair said:

    Speedy said:

    Dair said:

    Speedy said:

    Dair said:

    Ave_it said:

    We (CON) just need to get on the phone to SNP.

    'You back us and our first act will be to give you independence'.

    Then we get rid of them from the UK Parliament and its CON majority for ever! And we can all have unlimited tax relief on our pensions!!!

    People need to remember the example of Czechoslovakia.

    Within 18 months of a No vote in both Slovakia and the Czech Republic, both went their own way without a further vote. It was politically expedient.
    The Czechs didn't want to continue to fund the Slovak liabilities in the post-communist slump.
    But what will the SNP do with its independence that it can't do now?
    So one side wanted to get away from the debts of another.

    Interesting.
    You will have to make scotland an economic wasteland that costs far far more to maintain than it's income to make the UK to abandon it to it's fate.

    Scotland costs just about more that 7 billion pounds extra a year to maintain while North Sea Oil revenues at max is just about more than 8 billion a year, so at max the benefit is very small but in 10 years time it will turn to a net loss of around 10 billion a year, so the question is if propping up scotland from collapsing is worth it or not.

    Same goes for the eurozone ironically.
    To get the true figure you need to discount the £10bn subsidy Scotland pays to England (on average) each year. England gets about £3bn per annum from Scotland before any Oil and Gas Revenues are tallied.

    But the idea that once those revenues are gone Westminster will cast Scotland off is also farcical.

    You only need to look at Wales which 100 years ago was one of the richest countries on earth and is now one of the poorest regions of Europe. Once Westminster has syphoned off the money from natural resources (coal in Wales case) it will then apply its vice to the wealth of the people and slowly but surely diminish the wealth of the Nation/Region until it is in poverty and genuinely reliant.
    Of course -- some of those who looted Wales were ... errr, Scottish, such as the Earls of Bute.
    A small price to pay for exciting Motor Racing.
  • YBarddCwscYBarddCwsc Posts: 7,172
    welshowl said:

    Dair said:

    Speedy said:

    Dair said:

    Speedy said:

    Dair said:

    Ave_it said:

    We (CON) just need to get on the phone to SNP.

    'You back us and our first act will be to give you independence'.

    Then we get rid of them from the UK Parliament and its CON majority for ever! And we can all have unlimited tax relief on our pensions!!!

    People need to remember the example of Czechoslovakia.

    Within 18 months of a No vote in both Slovakia and the Czech Republic, both went their own way without a further vote. It was politically expedient.
    The Czechs didn't want to continue to fund the Slovak liabilities in the post-communist slump.
    But what will the SNP do with its independence that it can't do now?
    So one side wanted to get away from the debts of another.

    Interesting.
    You will have to make scotland an economic wasteland that costs far far more to maintain than it's income to make the UK to abandon it to it's fate.

    Scotland costs just about more that 7 billion pounds extra a year to maintain while North Sea Oil revenues at max is just about more than 8 billion a year, so at max the benefit is very small but in 10 years time it will turn to a net loss of around 10 billion a year, so the question is if propping up scotland from collapsing is worth it or not.

    Same goes for the eurozone ironically.
    To get the true figure you need to discount the £10bn subsidy Scotland pays to England (on average) each year. England gets about £3bn per annum from Scotland before any Oil and Gas Revenues are tallied.

    But the idea that once those revenues are gone Westminster will cast Scotland off is also farcical.

    You only need to look at Wales which 100 years ago was one of the richest countries on earth and is now one of the poorest regions of Europe. Once Westminster has syphoned off the money from natural resources (coal in Wales case) it will then apply its vice to the wealth of the people and slowly but surely diminish the wealth of the Nation/Region until it is in poverty and genuinely reliant.
    Of course -- some of those who looted Wales were ... errr, Scottish, such as the Earls of Bute.
    What did the Marquess ( not a mere a Earl please) of Bute do for us, apart from the docks, Cardiff Castle, Cardiff Civic Centre, Roath Park running for a couple of miles through the city? Bloody Scots.
    No Bute, no Cardiff, of course.

    Whilst I agree with Dair that Wales was once a richer country, I am not so sure that the blame for its present poverty lies with “Westminster”.
  • So what's the betting on tonight's YouGov? Mr Newton Dunn has not Tweeted


    34-34 zzzzz
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,541
    Carnyx said:

    antifrank said:

    Rab C Nesbitt was outstanding. The episode when he's sharing a cell with Timothy Spall is inspired.

    You are not only a person of intelligence, but also one of taste and critical discernment.


    I had clients like Rab C Nesbitt's family. When their pet cat got hungry, the youngest child gave it the pet hamster.
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    Dair said:

    Pulpstar said:

    " England gets about £3bn per annum from Scotland before any Oil and Gas Revenues are tallied."

    I'm more pro-Scottish than most here but that's a nonsense.

    The offsea GERS in the 80s were pretty criminal to Scotland mind.

    Debt Interest is approx £4.5bn as no refund for QE holdings. UK Infrastructure Spending is about £2.5bn and the Defence overpayment is about £1.5bn. Plenty of other budgets such as F&CO add to this. £10bn is a pretty decent figure, so £3bn before Oil and Gas is fair.

    BTW the 1980s are NOTHING compared to the 50% to 70% of Scottish Revenue filched by Westminster between 1900 and 1928 when it was so embarrassing (and the Home Rule movement was kicking off) so the UK Government stopped recording the figures for 50 years.
    As much as I see that the above are not a subsidy might be debatable, in that scotland has fewer motorways and more military bases than england, however debt interest payments on QE is definitely not.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,587
    EICIzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz
  • nigel4englandnigel4england Posts: 4,800
    Ave_it said:

    My votes have been cast so for me the election is over.

    I trust you voted Conservative! :
    antifrank said:

    Rab C Nesbitt was outstanding. The episode when he's sharing a cell with Timothy Spall is inspired.

    Did anyone watch Early Doors? Only two series but very funny, as was Just Good Friends
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,207
    JackW said:

    Ave_it said:

    CON on their way to second half win!

    I think we're heading for extra-time and penalties with Labour playing for England ....

    Ed Miliband Will Never Score A Penalty



    With his new sex appeal surely he would be good in the box?
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,415
    I've never seen a level poll ramped as much as last night's tbh.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,415
    1 weighted respondent ahead :D
  • Pulpstar said:

    I've never seen a level poll ramped as much as last night's tbh.

    Have you forgotten Rupe's tweet during the indyref?
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    Pulpstar said:

    I've never seen a level poll ramped as much as last night's tbh.

    Adding the question mark on the end was really a cover for them.
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 32,688
    TGOHF said:
    Not really. In case you missed it loads of people on here have criticised that poll today and most of the critics certainly weren't UKIP supporters.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    My votes have been cast so for me the election is over.

    Not for the poor people of Twickenham, who's right to choose their local representative has been sadly diminished by the self-importance of one individual.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,736
    Charles said:

    My votes have been cast so for me the election is over.

    Not for the poor people of Twickenham, who's right to choose their local representative has been sadly diminished by the self-importance of one individual.
    Bye
  • nigel4englandnigel4england Posts: 4,800
    Charles said:

    My votes have been cast so for me the election is over.

    Not for the poor people of Twickenham, who's right to choose their local representative has been sadly diminished by the self-importance of one individual.
    Seconded, absolutely disgraceful. Does he mention it in his radio interviews.
  • NeilNeil Posts: 7,983
    edited April 2015
    Charles said:

    My votes have been cast so for me the election is over.

    Not for the poor people of Twickenham, who's right to choose their local representative has been sadly diminished by the self-importance of one individual.
    Wont someone PLEASE think of the children!

  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,736

    Charles said:

    My votes have been cast so for me the election is over.

    Not for the poor people of Twickenham, who's right to choose their local representative has been sadly diminished by the self-importance of one individual.
    Seconded, absolutely disgraceful. Does he mention it in his radio interviews.
    Rather rude to our host
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    edited April 2015
    Floater said:

    JackW said:

    Ave_it said:

    CON on their way to second half win!

    I think we're heading for extra-time and penalties with Labour playing for England ....

    Ed Miliband Will Never Score A Penalty



    With his new sex appeal surely he would be good in the box?
    https://twitter.com/Annietwoshoes/status/590837644357201920/photo/1
  • TykejohnnoTykejohnno Posts: 7,362
    Nick Sutton ‏@suttonnick ·
    Thursday's Telegraph front page:
    Miliband SNP pact would cost families £350 each
    #tomorrowspaperstoday #GE2015

  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,736
    Mirror Politics ‏@MirrorPolitics 6m6 minutes ago
    Thanet Tory candidate owns website set up to encourage Hungarians come to UK for low paid work http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/nigel-farages-tory-challenger-owns-5565777
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    edited April 2015
    St George's day tomorrow - last one before our new Scotch overlords write our budgets.

    @Telegraph: Thursday's Daily Telegraph front page: 'Miliband SNP pact would cost families £350 each' http://t.co/77UEtssPQm
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    @Pulpstar don't know if you saw earlier but Dunfermline & West Fife is a 8000 vote SNP majority by the all might forecasting of SMAPS.
  • PongPong Posts: 4,693
    edited April 2015
    @mikesmithson

    Do you still think the LD's are value to retake Montgomeryshire? (Currently 9/4)

    I understand they're fighting hard on the ground.
  • Ave_itAve_it Posts: 2,411
    I went for a walk one day
    In the merry month of May
    Miliband didn't know what to do
    Until he got his orders from you know who!
This discussion has been closed.