Howdy, Stranger!

It looks like you're new here. Sign in or register to get started.

politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » David Miliband’s departure leaves Blairites leaderless

2»

Comments

  • JamesKellyJamesKelly Posts: 1,348
    "If I have given you nine terms, and one of those terms isn't used, then it will be falsified."

    It's you that doesn't appear to understand what the word "falsifiable" means. You've listed ten words, of which it is almost inevitable that at least one will be used by the SNP leader or deputy leader over the course of any given three weeks. Nice try, but I'm only interested in a credible bet. As I said, the offer remains open if you ever want to reverse your rejection.
  • Mick_PorkMick_Pork Posts: 6,530
    edited March 2013
    fitalass said:

    It was revealing to see how the party faithful view them. In Labourlist’s Shadow Cabinet rankings Murphy was 16th, Flint 17th, Twigg 25th and Byrne 27th out of 27. We are now in a post-Blairite age."

    That is indeed a stark portrayal of the post-Blairite age within the Labour party, to have Murphy only placed 16th in that LabourList


    *titters*

    What it reveals is that PB's leading anti-tipster shows no sign on stopping now for our amusement. Danny Alexander having been given the kiss of death by you as well. Want to know how highly lib dems rate him compared to other leading lib dems? It's not good. :D

    There is no post-Blairite age because David was never the only Blairite nor was little Ed ever some kind of rabid anti-Blairite. It's twaddle. Blair's malign influence will go on.



  • AndreaParma_82AndreaParma_82 Posts: 4,714
    "f Ed Miliband is happy to wave goodbye to any talent that might be stained with the Blairite success while embracing and promoting Brownite failure"

    does Dougie fit both categories?
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    18 Tory re-selections have been added to the list today - (thanks to Andrea for his help):

    https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0At91c3wX1Wu5dFkzTjFrRmJRN3F6ODBTTEs4NGFhcUE#gid=0

    We still don't have a seat where the three main parties have selected their candidates.

    The closest thing is Peterborough where Con, Lab and UKIP have selected:

    Con: Stewart Jackson
    Lab: Lisa Forbes
    UKIP: Iain McLaughlan
  • SocratesSocrates Posts: 10,322

    "If I have given you nine terms, and one of those terms isn't used, then it will be falsified."

    It's you that doesn't appear to understand what the word "falsifiable" means. You've listed ten words, of which it is almost inevitable that at least one will be used by the SNP leader or deputy leader over the course of any given three weeks. Nice try, but I'm only interested in a credible bet. As I said, the offer remains open if you ever want to reverse your rejection.

    I've listed nine words (I'm happy to exclude the "big deal" term). It only counts if it is describing new powers. Thus if Mr. Salmond comes out with something like "These new powers are a pile of piss, but Scotland's still a substantial country", it doesn't count. Mike or Peter can be the judge.
  • Mick_PorkMick_Pork Posts: 6,530

    "does Dougie fit both categories?

    Wee Dougie could find an entirely new category if either one ever proves a hinderance. He's very 'flexible' in that regard. ;)

  • fitalassfitalass Posts: 4,300
    antifrank said:

    Leaderless organisations tend to be more unpredictable than organisations with leaders, especially those that have a low morale. We might see some emphatically loyal statements from noted Blairites or uncontrollably disloyal actions, or both.

    Or we might see these people being totally invisible and sitting on the sidelines in their own backyard a year after being two of the most effective vote winners for the Labour party in Scotland at a GE. Its interesting to note that Murphy appears to have totally thrown himself into his Defence brief as an individual politician rather than a front bench spokesman for his party. Another reason why his efforts and success have become so unreported and unappreciated by his own Leadership and party membership over the last couple of years.

    It seems utterly bizarre to ignore one the most effective political colleagues you have because he supported your brother David Miliband in the Leadership contest. I doubt it was an accident Murphy was given the most toxic brief in the Shadow Cabinet, that he took when other colleagues would have seen the position as a poison chalice not to be touched speaks volumes. Even more impressive, Murphy has managed to turn this around very effectively while some of his colleagues like Cooper, Balls and Burnham struggle to get heard with any credibility on the other three highly contentious issues facing the Labour party in Opposition.

  • JamesKellyJamesKelly Posts: 1,348
    Nope. One phrase. That's the offer. As for Mike being the judge, you must be bloody joking after the events of last May. Any bet must have a clear-cut, objective rather than subjective outcome that is obvious to both of us. You don't seem to be interested in that kind of credible bet, and I think I have therefore made my position abundantly clear. I'm not going to change that position - let me know if you change yours. Otherwise we're pointlessly going round in circles and should stop now.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Albert McQuarrie, the MP beaten by Alex Salmond in Banff & Buchan in 1987, is still apparently an active member of the local Conservative association.

    Being 95, he's probably slightly older than the average Tory member in Scotland:

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Albert_McQuarrie
  • AndreaParma_82AndreaParma_82 Posts: 4,714
    @fitalass "a year after being two of the most effective vote winners for the Labour party in Scotland "

    it can be shocking but it may be that some Scottish voters voted Lab in 2010 also because of Gordon Brown and not just because of them
  • fitalassfitalass Posts: 4,300

    does Dougie fit both categories?

    Andrea, yes he does. After wee Dougie was made to take the blame for the Autumn GE that never was, he was cast out of the Brownite inner circle. And the irony was that he was by far the best Brownite media performer among the Brownite Turks too. It was interesting to see him with Murphy backing David Miliband rather than Ed Balls or Ed Miliband in the Labour Leadership contest.

  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited March 2013
    This will probably interest Scottish Nationalists:
    "A consortium of oil companies is to invest more than $500m (£330m) in an appraisal drilling programme which could lead to further development of a giant North Sea field.

    The BP-led consortium said drilling had already started on the first of five wells planned over the next two years at Clair, west of Shetland.

    Up to 12 wells could be drilled, depending on initial results.

    The news came as the UK government unveiled a new oil and gas strategy."
    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-business-21955536
  • JamesKellyJamesKelly Posts: 1,348
    "it can be shocking but it may be that some Scottish voters voted Lab in 2010 also because of Gordon Brown and not just because of them"

    I was at the recording of a comedy show in Glasgow the other night. Susan Calman said that Gordon Brown had been unfairly maligned, and got a spontaneous round of applause. I didn't join in, but there's no doubt that Brown has his fans in Scotland.
  • fitalassfitalass Posts: 4,300
    Andrea, Jim Murphy and Douglas Alexander were by far the most prolific and effective face of the Labour party in Scotland in the run up to the last GE. Brown was only allowed out on the most carefully orchestrated day trips.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,528
    Just catching up with the thread. As someone who supported David, I don't think the choice was seen in stark Blair/Brown terms by most of those involved, though as Henry says David certainly made a mistake in writing off large chunks of the union votes. Blair felt especially strongly about private sector provision in public services, but that's been driven off the Labour agenda by the excesses of the current government - I doubt if there is even one Labour front-bencher who feels we should do even more. The division, such as it is, is now a vaguer one between those who favour focusing on centrist voters and those who favour focusing on looking after those most hit by cuts (see the Guardian's harrowing coverage today). In practice most of us would say we need to do some of both, which is why the media struggles to produce a decent "Labour splits" story these days.

    I see Fenster believes that Serwotka and Crow are influential in the Labour Party. Neither of them are even members - they have a long history of supporting left-wing splinter groups.
  • Mick_PorkMick_Pork Posts: 6,530
    edited March 2013
    fitalass said:

    It seems utterly bizarre to ignore one the most effective political colleagues you have because he supported your brother David Miliband in the Leadership contest.


    Slight bit of a difference between merely supporting David and starting a whisper campaign against little Ed along with wee Dougie because you were in a cream puff, isn't there?

    Def Sec against the likes of Fox or Hammond is hardly 'toxic' or a punishment of any kind but if Murphy wants to whine that he's hard done by then it's no wonder he's rated so low by labour supporters.

  • Mick_PorkMick_Pork Posts: 6,530
    edited March 2013

    @fitalass "a year after being two of the most effective vote winners for the Labour party in Scotland "

    it can be shocking but it may be that some Scottish voters voted Lab in 2010 also because of Gordon Brown and not just because of them

    As James indicates it was his treatment as much as anything because the most toxic tea party tories and the likes of the Mail and others were intent on portraying him in a crass Clarkson like manner that was always going to backfire.

    Hence the astonishing scottish tory surge. :D

  • fitalassfitalass Posts: 4,300
    edited March 2013

    Just catching up with the thread. As someone who supported David, I don't think the choice was seen in stark Blair/Brown terms by most of those involved, though as Henry says David certainly made a mistake in writing off large
    chunks of the union votes.

    Nick, seriously, with the three main contenders so closely aligned to either Blair or Brown during the New Labour years? There was definitely also a clear 'anyone but David Miliband' campaign up and running well before the GE, and even more starkly on display when the contest finally got under way. And if David Miliband made a mistake in writing off large chunks of the Union votes. It would be to rewrite history for anyone in the Labour party to now suggest that the Union vote was ever even in contention for David Miliband after the Blair years, never mind Browns disastrous tenure as his successor. Brown, a politician who courted the Unions assiduously as the heir apparent, but who then failed to deliver so spectacularly once he won the Leadership. The removal of the 10p tax band for the lowest earners just to pay for a tax cut for middle income earners while not touching the rich sticks out as a real humdinger.

    Ed Balls had hoped he would get the powerful backing of the Unite Union, especially with Charlie Whelan comfortable tucked up there before the GE. It was the fact that Jon Craig reported that the TUC Barons had been impressed by Ed Miliband that pushed me into betting on him for the Leadership at great odds so long ago. Often wondered if Ed Miliband was chosen over Ed Balls by Unite because they thought he might be more isolated, and therefore less likely to be his own man as party Leader.

    I see that Len McClusky is flexing his muscles again, and making noises about party funding. While the focus of the Lobby has been on the Coalition and its restless back bench rebels in recent times, its looking like a bit of an illusion that Ed Miliband is currently running a tight and unified party in the Commons or the Lords. One to watch as the GE draws closer
    and Miliband has to come off the fence and announce some policies.

    If Ed Miliband fails to deliver at the next GE, how safe is he as Labour Leader if the party remain in Opposition after all the unrealistic expectations being built up by the current polling and a lack of any tough or credible policies?

  • AndreaParma_82AndreaParma_82 Posts: 4,714
    edited March 2013
    Fitalass "I see that Len McClusky is flexing his muscles again, and making noises about party funding"

    McClusky is in the middle of a Gen Sec election campaign right now against someone backed by SWP. He should win easily though.
  • fitalassfitalass Posts: 4,300
    edited March 2013
    Great, that is now my whole bingo card accounted for yet again. HOUSE!! And with that, goodnight after another interesting debate has the life sucked out of it by the tedious and repetitive behaviour of the usual suspects.

    @AndreaParma_82 will email you.
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,706
    Henry says:

    "David had the capacity to win but it would have meant moving on from New Labour, something he chose not to."

    Would it? He did win very comfortably amongst members and MPs - without "moving on", whatever that might mean.

    The reason he lost is simple - he lost the Union section by 20% at least partially because big Unions sent out ballot papers in covering envelopes which said "Vote Ed Miliband". If he had managed to prevent the unions doing that (and I recall someone said it could have been raised at the NEC or whoever was responsible for election arrangements) then he may well have won.

    Remember - if he had lost the Union section by anything less than 16% he would have won overall. It's very possible he would have won without those covering envelopes - ie nothing whatsoever to do with "moving on".

  • JamesKellyJamesKelly Posts: 1,348
    edited March 2013
    "Great, that is now my whole bingo card accounted for yet again. HOUSE!! And with that, goodnight after another interesting debate has the life sucked out of it by the tedious and repetitive behaviour of the usual suspects."

    Good night to the Passive Aggressives 'R' Us wing of PB Torydom.
  • Mick_PorkMick_Pork Posts: 6,530
    edited March 2013
    fitalass said:

    "There was definitely also a clear 'anyone but David Miliband' campaign up and running well before the GE"

    So that was why David was left holding a banana when the Blairites encouraged him to bring down Brown and he bottled it. Or did you forget about that part? It became a stop David campaign because David made himself such a target, not because of policy.
    fitalass said:

    " I see that Len McClusky is flexing his muscles again, and making noises about party funding. "

    Doesn't exactly chime in with the post-Blairite narrative for little Ed, does it?
    fitalass said:

    Often wondered if Ed Miliband was chosen over Ed Balls by Unite because they thought he might be more isolated, and therefore less likely to be his own man as party Leader

    I'm sure you do. I often wonder if a scottish tory surger knows the difference the real world and lunatic conspiracy theories.
    fitalass said:

    If Ed Miliband fails to deliver at the next GE, how safe is he as Labour Leader

    He's not. He loses he's out. Same as Cammie. If you don't even know that much then perhaps you should stick to heaping gushing praise on Osbrowne and Cammie.
  • Mick_PorkMick_Pork Posts: 6,530
    fitalass said:

    Great, that is now my whole bingo card accounted for yet again. HOUSE!!


    Are you going to whine about "cybernats" using "puerile" labels again?

    *tears of laughter etc.*

    :D

  • AndreaParma_82AndreaParma_82 Posts: 4,714
    Sadly we got affiliates breakdown just for first preferences

    Ed easily won Unite, GMB, Unison (less easily but comfortably) and UCATT
    David won BECTU (close on first prefs. So Ed probably edged him by last round), BFAWU, Community, TSSA (close fight with Diane), USDAW
    Ed Balls won CWU
    Diane carried Musicians Union and ASLEF
  • AndreaParma_82AndreaParma_82 Posts: 4,714
    edited March 2013
    David dominated BAME Labour. Ed won Christian Socialist Movement. Close fight but David edged Ed in first prefs in the Fabian Society. Ed won the handful members of Labour Housing Group and Labour Party Disabled Members' Group. David just ahead among Labour Students and Labour Party Irish Society. David won LGTB Labour. ED carried Scientists for Labour, SERA, Socialist Educational Association and Socialist Health Association.
    David was ahead in Society of Labour Lawyers and the Jewish Labour Movement (0 vote for Ed Balls here)
  • I'm sure someone will already have pointed this out, but it is only the Labour Party's Blairites who are leaderless.

    Blairites lead both Con and LD parties and so lead the country. That all 3 Parties are post-Blairite clones of each other; that all 3 Parties are indistinguishable from each other in broad direction and ambition (or lack thereof); that all 3 Parties are, under management similar to today's (ie 'managed decline') have both created the mess we're in AND failed to address, let alone tackle, that mess, indicates why the alternatives - UKIP and SNP are doing so well.

    Blairism in one form or another, has destroyed the UK since 1955 or so, and only from 1980 to 1995 was there any serious attempt to do anything else in terms of the nation's direction and overall management.

    I remember Peter Allen on R5 asking every senior politician in the run-up to GE010 'What's the real state of the economy and what are you going to do to tackle the mess it's in? only to be met with identikit flannel and obfuscation: it's why so many joined, or remained members of, the CBA/NOTA tendency.

    Hence UKIP and the SNP's rise: both offer a credible alternative to Blairism and both have charismatic leaders (Respect has only the latter): the sight of all 3 UK-wide Parties running around like headless chicken since Eastleigh is something to behold: and it's going to get more common as Farage's UKIP are the one serious challenge to The Perceived Orthodoxy of The Proper Way to Govern Britain (as defined through Oxford MA's and, in particular Oxford PPE courses).

    SeanT (and others) are right: a tipping-point is being reached, and the outcome is NOT going to be pleasant (see current spending round for the first straws in the wind: to make the cuts needed, Welfare has to be cut, not continue to rise, and it has to be cut by 25-50%. Try selling that to the BBC!)
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    Middle of the road YouGov - Lab on +10, but worrying internals for Ed:

    Best PM OA (change vs 12/13/3) (supporters)

    Cameron 31 (-) (91)
    Miliband 22 (-2) (62)

    Best for country:

    Maj Con : 29 (+1)
    Con/Ld :7 (-)
    Lab/Ld : 13 (-1)
    Maj Lab: 28 (-3)

    http://cdn.yougov.com/cumulus_uploads/document/bmaa176fpv/YG-Archive-Pol-Sun-results-270313.pdf
  • FinancierFinancier Posts: 3,916
    Latest YouGov / The Sun results 27th March - CON 30%, LAB 40%, LD 12%, UKIP 13%; APP -38

    Best PM:
    DC 31(0); EM 22(-2); NC 6(0); DK 41 (+1)

    Best for Britain:
    Con majority: 29 (+1)
    Con/LD coalition: 7(0)
    Lab/LD coalition 13 (-1)
    Lab majority: 28(-3)
    DK: 23 (+3)



  • FinancierFinancier Posts: 3,916
    More YouGov

    EdM is seen as best PM by 62% of Labour & 21% of women
    DC by 91% of Cons and 28% of women

    Best support for DC is London, then South and then Mids/Wales.

    EM has best support in North & Scotland
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    edited March 2013
    Interesting YouGov on "what makes a family" - in order, 1) children, 2) marriage

    Net agree consider a "family"

    Married w/ children: 94
    Married wo/ children: 50 - children gets +44

    Un married w/ children: 83 - no marriage -11
    Un married wo/ children: 8 - children gets + 75 without marriage.

    Lone parent + child: 80

    Same sex civil partnership w/ children: 48 'Civil Partnership': -46 vs marriage
    Same sex civil partnership wo/ children: 3: - little diff vs 'unmarried' (-5)
    Same sex long term partners wo/ children: -1

    internally differences are in "religion" vs "none" and within religion Islam outlier on attitude to same-sex couples.

    http://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/hai8zqy0i7/YG-Archive-University-of-Lancaster-300113-faith-matters-family-debate.pdf
  • MillsyMillsy Posts: 900
    Poor old Labour. They picked a left-wing candidate who manages to rile the unions and left-wingers without even being remotely centre-ground or right-wing.
  • old_labourold_labour Posts: 3,238
    A song for JackW and David Miliband supporters.

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_MZ3M80h46k
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,344
    Socrates said:

    "You are yet to give a reason why my counter offer with a list of terms the SNP could use is unacceptable."

    I didn't say they would call the powers "a big deal". I said they would call them a big deal. Do you not understand quotation marks? I'm very happy to specify in a falsifiable manner what a big deal would mean in precise terms: anything described as "broad", "substantial", "expansive", "major", "significant", "considerable", "substantive", "sizable" or "extensive". Why won't you accept this?

    That is really hedging your bets
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    Who do the other 36% of Lab supporters think would make best PM ? Balls ?
  • MillsyMillsy Posts: 900
    Interesting YouGov numbers re Ukip. Over 50% of their vote is apparently from former Lab, Lib Dem voters and others who didn't vote or voted for some other party.

    And 86% disapprove of the government's record (almost high as Labour supporters)...

    Yet only 4% think E Miliband would be best PM (30% think Cameron) and 19% would prefer either majority Lab govt or a Lab-LD coalition (46% Con or Con-LD)

    Just goes to show the historical protest vote against government isn't going to the Lib Dems (because they're in govt) or to the main opposition (Labour), and the Cons might be able to get support back from these sorts of voters if the election is a choice between red and blue.
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    http://www.publicworld.org/blog/what_david_camerons_new_patient_safety_tsar_said_five_years_ago._you_might

    Interesting thoughts on patient safety by the tsar. A bit too sensible to be put into action though.

    Meanwhile new 111 service increases emergency ambulance attendances

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2298599/New-NHS-phoneline-lives-risk-Doctors-warning-111-number-goes-meltdown.html

    implementing the Lansley reforms will be entertaining!
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,344
    fitalass said:

    does Dougie fit both categories?

    Andrea, yes he does. After wee Dougie was made to take the blame for the Autumn GE that never was, he was cast out of the Brownite inner circle. And the irony was that he was by far the best Brownite media performer among the Brownite Turks too. It was interesting to see him with Murphy backing David Miliband rather than Ed Balls or Ed Miliband in the Labour Leadership contest.

    Every one a useless donkey , both Murphy and Alexander are not even lightweights. Without being able to be Brown's ar** lickers they are showing their talent , invisible nobodies.
  • SocratesSocrates Posts: 10,322
    Girls do better in GCSEs than boys, partially because the system in recent years moved towards a more girl-friendly manner. Changes to GCSEs will move things back towards boys.

    Yet the union describes this as "working against girls"

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/education-21955004

    There's a real pro-female bias among our civil society. How come there are always health warnings with anything that makes things harder for females yet nothing of the sort with anything that makes it harder for males, even when males are doing worse?
  • [Deleted User][Deleted User] Posts: 0
    edited March 2013
    Sky News Newsdesk ‏@SkyNewsBreak

    South African President Jacob Zuma appeals for people around world to "pray for our beloved Madiba and his family"

    That sounds ominous: Mandela was one of the few truly great world statesmen of the last 50 years and his humility and humanity shone from him like a beacon: truly 'The Father of a Nation'.

    And full credit to FW De Klerk who as leader of the Whites, also found an accommodation with Mandela and brought the governing class on side (more or less without bloodshed at the time).

    Update:
    Sky News Newsdesk ‏@SkyNewsBreak 39s

    Presidential spokesman tells Sky News Nelson Mandela is conscious and receiving treatment in hospital following recurrence of lung infection

    'Pneumonia - the old man's friend'
  • SocratesSocrates Posts: 10,322
    edited March 2013
    malcolmg said:

    Socrates said:

    "You are yet to give a reason why my counter offer with a list of terms the SNP could use is unacceptable."

    I didn't say they would call the powers "a big deal". I said they would call them a big deal. Do you not understand quotation marks? I'm very happy to specify in a falsifiable manner what a big deal would mean in precise terms: anything described as "broad", "substantial", "expansive", "major", "significant", "considerable", "substantive", "sizable" or "extensive". Why won't you accept this?

    That is really hedging your bets
    Hedging my bets between the SNP describing it positively and the SNP describing it positively? Remember the point of this - it's evidence that the SNP consider it more than "nothing". There is more than one way for them to describe the same thing.
  • JamesKellyJamesKelly Posts: 1,348
    "Remember the point of this - it's evidence that the SNP consider it more than "nothing"."

    Then come the time perhaps we should seek a letter from Alex Salmond to arbitrate, rather than asking Mr Smithson of all people.

    I must say I do find it extraordinary that you claim to be confident that "substantial" powers will be transferred in the event of a No vote, but are utterly unable to predict what even a single one of those substantial powers will be.

    Well, no, actually it's not extraordinary - it's the very essence of the 'jam tomorrow' con.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,652
    edited March 2013
    AN1 said:

    I'm sure someone will already have pointed this out, but it is only the Labour Party's Blairites who are leaderless.

    Blairites lead both Con and LD parties and so lead the country. That all 3 Parties are post-Blairite clones of each other; that all 3 Parties are indistinguishable from each other in broad direction and ambition (or lack thereof); that all 3 Parties are, under management similar to today's (ie 'managed decline') have both created the mess we're in AND failed to address, let alone tackle, that mess, indicates why the alternatives - UKIP and SNP are doing so well.

    Blairism in one form or another, has destroyed the UK since 1955 or so, and only from 1980 to 1995 was there any serious attempt to do anything else in terms of the nation's direction and overall management.

    I remember Peter Allen on R5 asking every senior politician in the run-up to GE010 'What's the real state of the economy and what are you going to do to tackle the mess it's in? only to be met with identikit flannel and obfuscation: it's why so many joined, or remained members of, the CBA/NOTA tendency.

    Hence UKIP and the SNP's rise: both offer a credible alternative to Blairism and both have charismatic leaders (Respect has only the latter): the sight of all 3 UK-wide Parties running around like headless chicken since Eastleigh is something to behold: and it's going to get more common as Farage's UKIP are the one serious challenge to The Perceived Orthodoxy of The Proper Way to Govern Britain (as defined through Oxford MA's and, in particular Oxford PPE courses).

    SeanT (and others) are right: a tipping-point is being reached, and the outcome is NOT going to be pleasant (see current spending round for the first straws in the wind: to make the cuts needed, Welfare has to be cut, not continue to rise, and it has to be cut by 25-50%. Try selling that to the BBC!)

    There will most certainly be a tipping point, but what kind remains to be seen. There has never been more wealth in this country and in the rest of Europe - on an individual and corporate level. This at a time when living standards for the majority are falling. Growing income inequality is not a huge problem when everyone's lives are improving. That may not be the case when most are feeling perpetually squeezed.

  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    Star Trek will "rue the day" - set in 2259 it shows the Union flag still flying complete with saltire:

    "To start off the movie, London is in for a devastating terrorist attack.....
    What's interesting about this shot is that it shows a Union Jack waving overhead. Since the early 22nd century, Earth has been ruled by a single world government....."

    http://www.hollywood.com/news/movies/55004979/star-trek-into-darkness-trailer-analysis-villain-john-harrison-section-31?page=all
  • JamesKellyJamesKelly Posts: 1,348
    "set in 2259 it shows the Union flag still flying complete with saltire"

    You'd love Moonbase 3, Carlotta. A nation called Europe has a moonbase - in the year 2003.

    I suspect we'll let the rump UK carry on using the Union Jack for the next three centuries if it makes you happy.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,794
    Good morning, everyone.

    Probably another dreary street circuit to be added to the calendar in 2015 (Thailand):
    http://joesaward.wordpress.com/2013/03/28/thailand-planning-for-2015/
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 26,607
    Some extracts for Peter Oborne's view of David Miliband in the Telegraph:

    " Yet after Labour’s 1997 election victory he was the poster boy of a new ruling elite which seized control of the commanding heights of British politics. Anti-democratic, financially greedy and morally corrupt, this new political class has done the most enormous damage. Since David Miliband was its standard-bearer, his political career explains a great deal about what has gone wrong with British public life, about why politicians are no longer liked or trusted, and about how political parties have come to be viewed with contempt.

    Mr Miliband – and this is the essential point – set the pattern that so many others, including his brother Ed, have followed. Obsessed by politics at university (like Ed and David Cameron, he read PPE at Oxford), he has never had even the faintest connection with the real world. From life in think tanks he became a Labour Party researcher and special adviser, before being parachuted into the north-eastern constituency of South Shields as an MP.

    Like his mentors Tony Blair and Peter Mandelson, Mr Miliband is one of that unappetising breed of modern politician that has chosen to profiteer out of public service. It is a pity that the BBC did not ask him whether his sudden decision to abandon his constituents was not informed by a desire to keep his huge earnings out of the public eye.

    During his short, undistinguished career, Mr Miliband has done grave damage to British politics. He is part of the new governing elite which is sucking the heart out of our representative democracy while enriching itself in the process. He may be mourned in the BBC and in north London, but the rest of us are entitled to form a more realistic view. David Miliband has belittled our politics and he will not be missed. "

  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    Mirror on South Shields Labour candidate selection:


    DAVID MILIBAND QUITS
    South Shields Labour Party wants local candidate for by-election but Mirror's Kevin Maguire rules himself out

    http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/david-miliband-quits-labour-want-1789180
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 26,607
    And a final Miliband comment (channeling tim) :

    FOP DOWN
    FOP DOWN
    FOP DOWN
    FOP DOWN
    FOP DOWN
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216



    I suspect we'll let the rump UK carry on using the Union Jack for the next three centuries if it makes you happy.

    Sorry to break it to you old chap, but we won't need your permission or agreement to what we call ourselves or which flag we use. No more than we will tell you. Of course we might tell you to withdraw Scottish bank notes from circulation.....
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    An NYT editorial on the Scottish independence vote:

    "Mr. Salmond wants an independent Scotland to be part of the European Union. But he acknowledges that that would require negotiating new terms with 28 member states in 2014. The budget rebates and specially negotiated exemptions from European regulations that Scotland enjoys as part of the United Kingdom would lapse. And as a new European Union member, Scotland, like all new members, would have to commit itself to adopting the euro."

    http://www.nytimes.com/2013/03/28/opinion/a-vote-on-scottish-independence.html?src=recg
  • FinancierFinancier Posts: 3,916
    edited March 2013
    TGOHF said:

    Who do the other 36% of Lab supporters think would make best PM ?
    Balls ?

    Other 37% are: DC 3%; NC 2%; DK 32%
    It seems that 1% has been lost in rounding

  • nigel4englandnigel4england Posts: 4,800

    Some extracts for Peter Oborne's view of David Miliband in the Telegraph:

    " Yet after Labour’s 1997 election victory he was the poster boy of a new ruling elite which seized control of the commanding heights of British politics. Anti-democratic, financially greedy and morally corrupt, this new political class has done the most enormous damage. Since David Miliband was its standard-bearer, his political career explains a great deal about what has gone wrong with British public life, about why politicians are no longer liked or trusted, and about how political parties have come to be viewed with contempt.

    Mr Miliband – and this is the essential point – set the pattern that so many others, including his brother Ed, have followed. Obsessed by politics at university (like Ed and David Cameron, he read PPE at Oxford), he has never had even the faintest connection with the real world. From life in think tanks he became a Labour Party researcher and special adviser, before being parachuted into the north-eastern constituency of South Shields as an MP.

    Like his mentors Tony Blair and Peter Mandelson, Mr Miliband is one of that unappetising breed of modern politician that has chosen to profiteer out of public service. It is a pity that the BBC did not ask him whether his sudden decision to abandon his constituents was not informed by a desire to keep his huge earnings out of the public eye.

    During his short, undistinguished career, Mr Miliband has done grave damage to British politics. He is part of the new governing elite which is sucking the heart out of our representative democracy while enriching itself in the process. He may be mourned in the BBC and in north London, but the rest of us are entitled to form a more realistic view. David Miliband has belittled our politics and he will not be missed. "

    Brilliant summary and another reason why UKIP/Farage are growing in strength.

  • [Deleted User][Deleted User] Posts: 0
    edited March 2013


    There will most certainly be a tipping point, but what kind remains to be seen. There has never been more wealth in this country and in the rest of Europe - on an individual and corporate level. This at a time when living standards for the majority are falling. Growing income inequality is not a huge problem when everyone's lives are improving. That may not be the case when most are feeling perpetually squeezed.

    A characteristically accurate summary: the problem is that 'the ruling class' are no longer perceived to be 'of the people' and are, most certainly, not suffering in the same way as most are - and will continue to do, for many years to come.
    Forget La-La land forecasts from the OBR - they lost all credibility and claim to independence when the first published a 'jam tomorrow' growth projection, not one of which is remotely credible, nor remotely feasible. Once their projections are of 0-1% pa growth, we'll start to see Spending Reviews which have some basis in reality - and it ain't going to be pretty, since Welfare (still rising, thanks mainly to pensions) will need to be CUT, and not just by 5% (Defence) or 10% (everywhere else) but by 20-30%, and THAT's going to mean serious pain for seriously large numbers of people.

    Now, since the more intelligent and aware people have been aware of this since 2007 (and many since 2001, if not before) the question is - 'Why are those in power, both in Govt and in Whitehall, so determined to ignore not 'the elephant in the room' but the bloody great big iceberg which has holed the HMS Titanic below the water-line.
    "Captain Camborne and First Officer Cleggander, I must tell you, Sirs, with regret, that the fiscal pumps cannot cope and no amount of synthetic growth stimulants can make them work any faster. We're doomed, Captain, dooooomed, I tell ye, and there's nothin' to be done about it"

    "Will ye no give the order rapidly to inflate - to the max possible - the fiscal lifeboats? Carney is in favour o'that, de'ye ken, Camborne? (etc)"

    The Establishment (all of it) really IS like Captain Smith - in total denial of what is happening, as the Great Ship of State is steadily sinking beneath us. And Cyprus shows that they'll lock the doors on Third Class, if necessary, to ensure First Class can get off.......

    Given the 2014 Referendum it brings a whole new meaning to the phrase 'Scot free'? No? lol!

  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,344



    I suspect we'll let the rump UK carry on using the Union Jack for the next three centuries if it makes you happy.

    Sorry to break it to you old chap, but we won't need your permission or agreement to what we call ourselves or which flag we use. No more than we will tell you. Of course we might tell you to withdraw Scottish bank notes from circulation.....
    You wish, the rump will be clamouring to have Scotland included with its faltering, "Cypriot" like financial services economy. A handful of people with all the money and the rest on poverty level benefits , having to share rooms.
  • One of Henry Manson's most interesting articles.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,344

    An NYT editorial on the Scottish independence vote:

    "Mr. Salmond wants an independent Scotland to be part of the European Union. But he acknowledges that that would require negotiating new terms with 28 member states in 2014. The budget rebates and specially negotiated exemptions from European regulations that Scotland enjoys as part of the United Kingdom would lapse. And as a new European Union member, Scotland, like all new members, would have to commit itself to adopting the euro."

    http://www.nytimes.com/2013/03/28/opinion/a-vote-on-scottish-independence.html?src=recg

    Those well known European experts in New York have spoken, has Milliband got there already.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,794
    Mr. AN1, I think that not being 'of the people' is absolutely fine. Boris is hardly white van man. The problem, to paraphrase Gladiator, is that leaders now are not being seen as 'for the people'.

    Take climate change. Very many are sceptical of it, but the ranks of party leadership are crammed with true believers. Fuel bills will rise as a result of this, but they won't be touched because they're all wealthy and have bulletproof pensions.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 26,607
    " the problem is that 'the ruling class' are no longer perceived to be 'of the people' and are, most certainly, not suffering in the same way as most are - and will continue to do, for many years to come "

    Not only is the political overclass drawn from an increasingly incestuous and self-perpetuating 'elite' it is simultaneously losing any sense of obligation of service and sacrifice to the country as a whole.

    After the next election expect to see byelections in Witney and Tatton when Cameron and Osborne disappear to become internall quangocrats and/or business non-executive directors.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    The Sun's less sympathetic take on Miliband Sr:

    BITTER David Miliband quit politics yesterday after finally deciding he could never serve under Left-wing brother Ed, pals have revealed.
    The ex-Foreign Secretary’s shock walk out came after senior Labour figures gave him an ultimatum — come back to the frontbench or leave Parliament.


    Read more: http://www.thesun.co.uk/sol/homepage/news/politics/4863500/David-Miliband-says-hes-miles-apart-from-Leftie-brother-Ed-Miliband.html#ixzz2Ooyp7EWp
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    AN1 - yes whenever I think of the ruling elite I think of the OBR at the vanguard.....
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    "And so closes a chapter in political history, as a nation waves farewell to a figure acclaimed today as “A man who made a difference” (Les Dawson), “Genuinely passionate about helping people” (Mr Darcy), “Both a friend and a hero” (Muffin the Mule)."
    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/9957311/Sketch-David-Miliband-a-nation-mourns.html
  • [Deleted User][Deleted User] Posts: 0
    edited March 2013

    Mr. AN1, I think that not being 'of the people' is absolutely fine. Boris is hardly white van man. The problem, to paraphrase Gladiator, is that leaders now are not being seen as 'for the people'.

    Take climate change. Very many are sceptical of it, but the ranks of party leadership are crammed with true believers. Fuel bills will rise as a result of this, but they won't be touched because they're all wealthy and have bulletproof pensions.

    Good points, well made: my phraseology was poor.
    The Climate Change Levy (ta, Brussels) is so clearly insane, yet no-one seems to voice the POV that it should simply be ignored/repealed/dumped.

    We're 1% of the world's population, so produce, at most, 2% of the 8% (or <0.2%) of fossil-fuel sourced annual CO2, thus meaning the total abolition of fossil fuel use in the UK would make no detectable change to atmospheric CO2 levels.
  • fitalass "Often wondered if Ed Miliband was chosen over Ed Balls by Unite because they thought he might be more isolated, and therefore less likely to be his own man as party Leader. "

    My theory is that Unite went for the man more likely to win, but the previous joint leader of Unite Derek Simpson was a big supporter of EdM a few years before the actual vote. Ed Balls Unite support was with the Brownites such as Charlie etc. Charlie has now retired.

    fitalass "I see that Len McClusky is flexing his muscles again, and making noises about party funding."

    Unite has increased its control of the Labour party in recent years. We had an article about this about 4 or 5 years ago on Pol Betting. Maybe due for an update?
  • Mick_PorkMick_Pork Posts: 6,530

    "set in 2259 it shows the Union flag still flying complete with saltire"

    You'd love Moonbase 3, Carlotta. A nation called Europe has a moonbase - in the year 2003..


    Sorry??? Did a tea party tory just use a Star Trek film to try and help 'prove' the unionist case?

    *falls over cat crying with laughter etc*

    Completely unspoofable.

    I hope she's happy for that one to come up repeatedly from now on. ;^)
  • FinancierFinancier Posts: 3,916
    A&E consultants: Hospitals in Wales at 'meltdown point'

    "Hospital consultants have spoken out to warn that A&E departments are at the point of meltdown and patients are dying as a result.

    Almost half of the Wales' A&E consultants have signed a joint letter to new Health Minister Mark Drakeford.

    It says pressure to meet financial targets has meant the loss of beds "at the expense of quality care"."

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-21962453

    So the Welsh Government spends £52m on a loss-making airport with a declining number of clients. Probably will need another £30m+ to put in new access roads.

    So Welsh Labour ministerial pride is more important than the health of its electorate!
  • In my voting lifetime we had two Leaders of the Labour party that came from the left of its party. Michael Foot and Neil Kinnock. Michael Foot was persuaded to stand by left-wingers who believed that only he could defeat Healey. Ed Milliband was persuaded to stand by left wingers (inc Unions) who wanted to stop his brother..... The rest is history except that Ed M will probably be the next PM, but the seeds of the SDP came out of the Michael Foot election in 1980. The retirement of David Milliband and the hounding of Liam Byrne etc may be the starting point for the moves to a "social liberal party" with the survivors from the Lib Dems. What Blair failed to do was remove the massive influence of the Unions from the Labour party.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,528

    Some extracts for Peter Oborne's view of David Miliband in the Telegraph:

    " ... his political career explains a great deal about what has gone wrong with British public life...It is a pity that the BBC did not ask him whether his sudden decision to abandon his constituents was not informed by a desire to keep his huge earnings out of the public eye. "

    Brilliant summary and another reason why UKIP/Farage are growing in strength.

    Peter Oborne purports to work in the public interest too - fearless commentator on public affairs and all that. I wonder how his salary compares with MPs, or indeed if he makes it public, and how much real-world experience he has had.

    He's right that the system discourages people from transferring from success in other professions. But if voters showed any sign of preferring candidates with other backgrounds, parties would respond. Sadly, it's very, very low on the list of things that change voting intentions.
  • Mick_PorkMick_Pork Posts: 6,530
    edited March 2013

    In my voting lifetime we had two Leaders of the Labour party that came from the left of its party. Michael Foot and Neil Kinnock.

    Came from is not the same as staying there. Kinnock went on for far too long but he was the one who really started the new labour project with his conversion to the centre and war against militant which culminated with his famous liverpool council speech. It also glosses over John Smith who was also a moderniser but unusually clearly believed in things, which is rather against the grain of the Blairite way of doing business.

    Byrne isn't being 'hounded'. He dug his own grave with a staggeringly misjudged 'joke' letter.
    What's most surprising is that he remained in any position of influence at all after that.

    The tories are going to use Byrne's 'joke' in 2015 almost as much as they will use Brown and Darling as they refight the 2010 election. They certainly can't use omnishambles Osbrowne to make a credible AAA case on matters economic, so it's going to be all about that last labour administration and tying little Ed and Balls to it.



  • MikeKMikeK Posts: 9,053
    Good morning. Can we get those noxious faces off PB and start a new thread, Mike?
  • SocratesSocrates Posts: 10,322

    "set in 2259 it shows the Union flag still flying complete with saltire"

    You'd love Moonbase 3, Carlotta. A nation called Europe has a moonbase - in the year 2003.

    I suspect we'll let the rump UK carry on using the Union Jack for the next three centuries if it makes you happy.

    It will be very generous of you not to use all that leverage an independent Scotland will have over the UK.

    Perhaps you can throw it into the mix when we're deciding what fiscal limits you'll have to abide by in order to be backed up by the Bank of England?
  • FluffyThoughtsFluffyThoughts Posts: 2,420

    I wonder how his salary compares with MPs....

    I am sure that he does not get £2K per-month - tax-free - for a luxuary Dacha and, if he does, no doubt HMRC would ensure that his employer would paid for like-payments-in-kind. Have you contributed to the UK exchequer throughout your employed life (and we are talking net)...?

  • Mick_PorkMick_Pork Posts: 6,530
    edited March 2013
    tim said:

    Another one of Osbornes strategic moves unravels

    @TimGattITV: RT @itvnews: Report: John Hayes moved from energy minister role: http://t.co/fdstKDn0aA


    Hayes being the one that the lib dem minister Ed Davey slapped down over energy policy. Ideal as a strong senior party advisor in other words. The master strategies never end.

  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    Dan Hodges surprises us all - Milliband Sr's departure is bad news for Miliband minor:

    http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/danhodges/100209479/david-milibands-departure-has-left-a-gaping-hole-in-labours-preparations-for-the-2015-election/?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter


    David Miliband's departure has left a gaping hole in Labour's preparations for the 2015 election
  • BenMBenM Posts: 1,795
    edited March 2013
    Dismal Osborne and his dismal economic performance:

    http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/economics-blog/2013/mar/27/george-osborne-balance-payment-dismal-reading

    "The balance of payments figures for 2012 make dismal reading. They show that the UK ran a deficit of £57bn last year compared with just £20bn in 2011. As a share of the economy, the shortfall was 3.7% – the highest since 1989. More worrying still, on the three previous occasions since the second world war that the deficit has been higher as a proportion of GDP, a booming economy was sucking in imports. This time there is no such excuse."
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,528

    I wonder how his salary compares with MPs....

    Have you contributed to the UK exchequer throughout your employed life (and we are talking net)...?

    Yes, Fluffy. £31K income tax last year, for instance.
  • SocratesSocrates Posts: 10,322
    BenM said:

    Dismal Osborne and his dismal economic performance:

    http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/economics-blog/2013/mar/27/george-osborne-balance-payment-dismal-reading

    "The balance of payments figures for 2012 make dismal reading. They show that the UK ran a deficit of £57bn last year compared with just £20bn in 2011. As a share of the economy, the shortfall was 3.7% – the highest since 1989. More worrying still, on the three previous occasions since the second world war that the deficit has been higher as a proportion of GDP, a booming economy was sucking in imports. This time there is no such excuse."
    It's almost like for years we've catered our entire trading strategy to the part of the world that's in perpetual financial crisis.
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    @old_labour

    "A song for JackW and David Miliband supporters."

    Thank you .... I sure PBers have been singing along most tunefully all morning !!
  • FluffyThoughtsFluffyThoughts Posts: 2,420
    edited March 2013


    Yes, Fluffy. £31K income tax last year, for instance.

    Sorry Nick,

    I know you're paying tax now. My point is this; you call some journalist's salary into contention whilst you neglect to mention your tax-liabilities as an MP.*

    Your focus first on salary and then on income-tax shows a shallow understanding of how Her Majesty's Treasury runs. VAT and duties are important too (and are paid by all in society). Corporation-tax has always been a honey-pot.

    I pay for services in The Netherlands of which I do not - directly - receive. I don't involve myself in their politics nor complain about their journalists. You, as someone who has spent his most of his life in foreign climes, do within England.

    * I know it is a facile argument, but there it is. Your brother was a successful military-man (though I know not of which branch he served) but it could - maliciously - be argued that he received more from the tax-payer than he returned.
  • MikeKMikeK Posts: 9,053
    Good article re Cyprus in the Telegraph showing that the EU is really a den of thieves:

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/comment/ambroseevans_pritchard/9957999/Cyprus-has-finally-killed-myth-that-EMU-is-benign.html
  • john_zimsjohn_zims Posts: 3,399
    @CarlottaVance

    'BITTER David Miliband quit politics yesterday after finally deciding he could never serve under Left-wing brother Ed, pals have revealed.'

    To be fair to Red at least he warned everyone he's a socialist,just a question of how long he can keep hiding his policies with the blank piece of paper malarkey
    Then it will be back to the 70's with Red..
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,344
    Socrates said:

    "set in 2259 it shows the Union flag still flying complete with saltire"

    You'd love Moonbase 3, Carlotta. A nation called Europe has a moonbase - in the year 2003.

    I suspect we'll let the rump UK carry on using the Union Jack for the next three centuries if it makes you happy.

    It will be very generous of you not to use all that leverage an independent Scotland will have over the UK.

    Perhaps you can throw it into the mix when we're deciding what fiscal limits you'll have to abide by in order to be backed up by the Bank of England?
    Is that the same one we own 10% of already
This discussion has been closed.