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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Podcast discussion on general election betting between Mike

SystemSystem Posts: 12,217
edited April 2015 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Podcast discussion on general election betting between Mike Smithson and Graham Sharpe of William Hill

This was recorded this morning.

Read the full story here


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Comments

  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,415
    Ah William Hill
  • Tissue_PriceTissue_Price Posts: 9,039
    Nice one Mike - will listen later.

    FPT as may be relevant in 80 minutes time:

    I'm quite serious about 1% being MOE on the new YouGov methodology. Maybe 1.5%. I think that's why they introduced the new methodology, in fact - to make sure they were picking up genuine switchers.

    YouGov have basically had this 34.5%-33.5% to Labour ever since they changed. Anything substantially different would be very interesting, though naturally you'd want to see it more-or-less repeated tomorrow.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,415
    Oh right I thought Sharpe was chief odds compiler !
  • Omnium said:

    But maglev is terrible at fixing the track capacity issues which is the primary reason for HS2.

    A maglev track cannot run onto other cities that don't have maglev track that HS2 does.

    Also, the speeds wouldn't actually be quicker, the limitations are curvature and acceleration given the human body didn't appreciate massive acceleration around corners, up and down hills, away from stations or breaking to slow down.

    Great is you've limitless budget, don't care about blight and aren't interested in resolving capacity issues, if you're only interested in speed, that isn't what HS2 is planned to achieve though.

    Fast trains = more capacity. Fluid dynamics really.

    There's no problem if you build straight lines. You could easily build banked tracks within the tunnels to mitigate that. There is a slight problem with the 'if we crash you're deader that dead".

    Tunnels don't 'blight', and as mentioned above fast=more capacity. However cost is really problematic.
    "Fast trains = more capacity."

    AIUI that is very wrong, although less wrong if they ever get ERTMS level 3 up and running (although IANAE).

    The reason is the way block signalling works, and the vastly increased stopping distances for high-speed trains. Basically, you can fit more slow-speed trains on a line due to the fact they have shorter stopping distances. High-speed trains need longer blocks, or to take up two or three blocks, whereas a slow train may only take up one block, allowing the other blocks to be filled with other trains.

    Where high speed routes win for capacity is in separating slow-moving freight and frequently-stopping local passenger traffic from the high-speed traffic.This frees up capacity on both lines.
    I think we have an armchair expert who thinks that they know more than the transport planners around the world.

    Maglev is pretty useless at achieving the things that HS2 Ltd were setup to address in 2009 when Network Rail highlighted the WCML and ECML were rapidly running out of TRACK capacity.
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    Anecdote time:

    A new poster for the Con council seats of Evington and North Evington vandalised the day it went up on Humberstone rd.

    I wore my tartan tie (usually kept for Burns night) today. No animosity to Scots or indeed remarks about the election from either patients or staff.

    One of my recently naturalised foreign Doctors popped his head into my office to sing God save the Queen. I looked blank for a bit until the penny dropped: the Queens birthday. On the one hand he has assimilated both knowledge and loyalty, but on the other hand he has not assimilated British reticence in these matters...
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,587
    I must say that Mike sounds nothing like I thought he would. I thought he would be more of a Terry Pratchett sort of tone.
  • hmm... betfair most seats latest prices suggests the tease on yougov might indeed be pro-blue...

    we shall see.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 43,046
    WHAT DID THE BLOKE IN THE SHOP SAY?????
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    The unions are revolting

    @PeterAdamSmith: Youth delegates at @ScottishTUC tell me they staged a walk-out at the president's dinner tonight in protest at Jim Murphy attending.
  • Tissue_PriceTissue_Price Posts: 9,039
    edited April 2015
    I think someone is trying to force the price down on EM4PM. £4500 looking to back 1.79 (with commission) when Ladbrokes would probably happily lay 5/6 and plenty of firms are 4/5.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633

    I think someone is trying to force the price down on EM4PM. £4500 looking to back 1.79 (with commission) when Ladbrokes would probably happily lay 5/6 and plenty of firms are 4/5.

    Naughty naughty.
  • Tissue_PriceTissue_Price Posts: 9,039
    TGOHF said:

    I think someone is trying to force the price down on EM4PM. £4500 looking to back 1.79 (with commission) when Ladbrokes would probably happily lay 5/6 and plenty of firms are 4/5.

    Naughty naughty.
    It's a free market. Ultimately someone will probably call their bluff.
  • tysontyson Posts: 6,117
    It's rather strange watching the cricket with OGH providing the commentary.

    I'm very impressed with the intimate knowledge of both. Sharpe is as smart as a whip as you'd expect from a bookie and our OGH comes across as the all knowing sage and seer.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,711
    Well done Mike. Very interesting interview.
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 10,913
    FPT: @ManchesterKurt and @JJ

    New, and clear, lines.

    The current system is constrained - it's about changing those constraints. If you stick a fast train on a crap line you'll get tiny improvements - I'm reasonably sure that there's no degradation. Fast trains on fast lines (exclusively) though works.
  • asjohnstoneasjohnstone Posts: 1,276
    edited April 2015

    TGOHF said:

    I think someone is trying to force the price down on EM4PM. £4500 looking to back 1.79 (with commission) when Ladbrokes would probably happily lay 5/6 and plenty of firms are 4/5.

    Naughty naughty.
    It's a free market. Ultimately someone will probably call their bluff.
    It seems very out of whack with the next government market where the sum total of Lab maj, Lab min and any other imply a probability of just less than 50%

    Lay Ed PM and back the various Labour next governments for some free money
  • nigel4englandnigel4england Posts: 4,800
    They are seriously good, they also won the European trophy last week, I much prefer watching them to the first team.

    Doubt many of them will break through with Mourinho in charge though.
  • peter_from_putneypeter_from_putney Posts: 6,956
    edited April 2015
    *** Betting Post ***
    If asked to nominate the very worst value political bet in the entire market - and there are literally hundreds and hundreds to choose from, my pick would have to be Betfair Sportsbook's odds of 0.7/1 for the Greens Deposit Losses to be less than 20%.
    Already dipping nationally below the crucial deposit-saving 5% level and continuing to leak support as the GE draws ever closer, they are standing for the first time in literally scores of seats where they have little or no established organised support structure within such constituencies.
    In these circumstances, I would assess the correct odds for this bet as being in the region of at least 3/1 - 4/1. Far better value in my view would be the 41% - 50% band on offer at 9/2 or even the 51% - 60% band available at 7/1.
    As ever, DYOR.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 43,484

    Omnium said:

    But maglev is terrible at fixing the track capacity issues which is the primary reason for HS2.

    A maglev track cannot run onto other cities that don't have maglev track that HS2 does.

    Also, the speeds wouldn't actually be quicker, the limitations are curvature and acceleration given the human body didn't appreciate massive acceleration around corners, up and down hills, away from stations or breaking to slow down.

    Great is you've limitless budget, don't care about blight and aren't interested in resolving capacity issues, if you're only interested in speed, that isn't what HS2 is planned to achieve though.

    Fast trains = more capacity. Fluid dynamics really.

    There's no problem if you build straight lines. You could easily build banked tracks within the tunnels to mitigate that. There is a slight problem with the 'if we crash you're deader that dead".

    Tunnels don't 'blight', and as mentioned above fast=more capacity. However cost is really problematic.
    "Fast trains = more capacity."

    AIUI that is very wrong, although less wrong if they ever get ERTMS level 3 up and running (although IANAE).

    The reason is the way block signalling works, and the vastly increased stopping distances for high-speed trains. Basically, you can fit more slow-speed trains on a line due to the fact they have shorter stopping distances. High-speed trains need longer blocks, or to take up two or three blocks, whereas a slow train may only take up one block, allowing the other blocks to be filled with other trains.

    Where high speed routes win for capacity is in separating slow-moving freight and frequently-stopping local passenger traffic from the high-speed traffic.This frees up capacity on both lines.
    I think we have an armchair expert who thinks that they know more than the transport planners around the world.
    That's slightly unfair. High-speed Maglev is a futuristic, sexy technology. I'd love it to work, and I can see why others do (the same sort of reason attracts me to Boris Island, amongst others).

    However I've read enough, and talked to enough people, to believe that it is virtually never the best solution to a problem, at least with current technology.

    But I quite like dreamers ...
  • Tissue_PriceTissue_Price Posts: 9,039

    *** Betting Post ***
    If asked to nominate the very worst value political bet in the entire market - and there are literally hundreds and hundreds to choose from, my pick would have to be Betfair Sportsbook's odds of 0.7/1 for the Greens Deposit Losses to be less than 20%.
    Already dipping nationally below the crucial deposit-saving 5% level and continuing to leak support as the GE draws ever closer, they are standing for the first time in literally scores of seats where they have little or no established organised support structure within such constituencies.
    In these circumstances, I would assess the correct odds for this bet as being in the region of at least 3/1 - 4/1. Better value in my view would be the 41% - 50% band on offer at 9/2 or even the 51% - 60% band available at 7/1.
    As ever, DYOR.

    PfP - you're reading it the wrong way round. The 0.7/1 is for them to SAVE fewer than 20% of their deposits.

    Some of us are on that at 8/1.
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    How about this for a civil engineering horrorshow:

    http://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2015/apr/21/huge-10-ton-fatberg-removed-chelsea-sewer-london

    Bit dodgy, Chelsea...
  • TykejohnnoTykejohnno Posts: 7,362

    They are seriously good, they also won the European trophy last week, I much prefer watching them to the first team.

    Doubt many of them will break through with Mourinho in charge though.
    What about Patrick Bamford on loan at Middlesbrough.

  • ManchesterKurtManchesterKurt Posts: 921
    edited April 2015
    Omnium said:

    FPT: @ManchesterKurt and @JJ

    New, and clear, lines.

    The current system is constrained - it's about changing those constraints. If you stick a fast train on a crap line you'll get tiny improvements - I'm reasonably sure that there's no degradation. Fast trains on fast lines (exclusively) though works.

    New and clear lines, you mean like HS2?

    So, does HS2 or maglev remove more intercity services off the legacy network?

    From the WCML, by building HS2 from London to Brum and Manc you also remove the intercity services from Glasgow, Carlisle, Lancaster, Preston, Wigan, Warrington, Liverpool, Crewe etc from the WCML - freeing up many paths on the WCML for more freight and commuter services between the towns and cities on the WCML.

    Now, please answer this very simple question, if you build a brand new maglev line from London to Brum and Manc, how many of those services from Glasgow, Carlisle, Lancaster, Preston, Wigan, Warrington, Liverpool, Crewe etc can be removed from the old WCML?

    Simple question that gets straight to the point as to why maglev is useless.

    Simple question that I guarantee you will not even try to answer.

    You seem to be missing the point that HS2 creates the capacity on the OLD network for new services on the OLD network, not just on HS2.
  • How about this for a civil engineering horrorshow:

    http://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2015/apr/21/huge-10-ton-fatberg-removed-chelsea-sewer-london

    Bit dodgy, Chelsea...

    Albeit it a better class of fat.
  • PongPong Posts: 4,693

    TGOHF said:

    I think someone is trying to force the price down on EM4PM. £4500 looking to back 1.79 (with commission) when Ladbrokes would probably happily lay 5/6 and plenty of firms are 4/5.

    Naughty naughty.
    It's a free market. Ultimately someone will probably call their bluff.
    It seems very out of whack with the next government market where the sum total of Lab maj, Lab min and any other imply a probability of just less than 50%

    Lay Ed PM and back the various Labour next governments for some free money
    Hmm - not sure about the maths there - I make all the lab govts + any other = 59.2% @ current odds. That's equivalent to backing EdPM @ about 1.7
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    Ooof
    @SkyNews: Tesco to announce statutory pre-tax losses of well over £5bn, Sky News understands http://t.co/DNAqN1ACPj http://t.co/d1uOu7fx1X

  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,043
    TGOHF said:

    Ooof
    @SkyNews: Tesco to announce statutory pre-tax losses of well over £5bn, Sky News understands http://t.co/DNAqN1ACPj http://t.co/d1uOu7fx1X

    Why is it called a "statutory" pre-tax loss?
  • tysontyson Posts: 6,117
    Ha ha. "I wish I put more one."
    Mike finishes the interview with the gamblers lament. Fascinating interview- though I had to pause it whilst England were reviewing an lbw shout.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    RobD said:

    TGOHF said:

    Ooof
    @SkyNews: Tesco to announce statutory pre-tax losses of well over £5bn, Sky News understands http://t.co/DNAqN1ACPj http://t.co/d1uOu7fx1X

    Why is it called a "statutory" pre-tax loss?

    Definition of statutory profit or loss
    A statutory loss (or profit) is simply the bottom line of a company's profit and loss account. It includes everything that must be added and deducted from revenue to comply with legal and accounting requirements.
    Companies often contrast it with "underlying profit" (or loss) which would normally exclude "exceptional" items, leaving, as some might put it, profit without the bad stuff.
  • nigel4englandnigel4england Posts: 4,800

    They are seriously good, they also won the European trophy last week, I much prefer watching them to the first team.

    Doubt many of them will break through with Mourinho in charge though.
    What about Patrick Bamford on loan at Middlesbrough.

    Wouldn't be surprised if he stays with Borough next season, in reality he should be our third striker. We also have Kalas and Omeuru at Boro, Lewis Baker at MK Dons, Chalobah and Ake at Reading and maybe best of all Bertrand Traore at Vitesse.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,043
    TGOHF said:

    RobD said:

    TGOHF said:

    Ooof
    @SkyNews: Tesco to announce statutory pre-tax losses of well over £5bn, Sky News understands http://t.co/DNAqN1ACPj http://t.co/d1uOu7fx1X

    Why is it called a "statutory" pre-tax loss?

    Definition of statutory profit or loss
    A statutory loss (or profit) is simply the bottom line of a company's profit and loss account. It includes everything that must be added and deducted from revenue to comply with legal and accounting requirements.
    Companies often contrast it with "underlying profit" (or loss) which would normally exclude "exceptional" items, leaving, as some might put it, profit without the bad stuff.
    So if they sold, for example, a £5bn bit of property in a one-off transaction, that would be a statutory pre-tax loss of £5bn, but an underlying loss of £0?
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,533
    TGOHF said:

    Ooof
    @SkyNews: Tesco to announce statutory pre-tax losses of well over £5bn, Sky News understands http://t.co/DNAqN1ACPj http://t.co/d1uOu7fx1X

    They will have to get the begging bowl out with "every little helps" on the front of it...
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    Apparently includes a massive write down in the value of their properties - perhaps some previous years were " generous".

    Sounds like they are getting all their bad news out at once.
  • asjohnstoneasjohnstone Posts: 1,276
    edited April 2015
    Pong said:

    TGOHF said:

    I think someone is trying to force the price down on EM4PM. £4500 looking to back 1.79 (with commission) when Ladbrokes would probably happily lay 5/6 and plenty of firms are 4/5.

    Naughty naughty.
    It's a free market. Ultimately someone will probably call their bluff.
    It seems very out of whack with the next government market where the sum total of Lab maj, Lab min and any other imply a probability of just less than 50%

    Lay Ed PM and back the various Labour next governments for some free money
    Hmm - not sure about the maths there - I make all the lab govts + any other = 59.2% @ current odds. That's equivalent to backing EdPM @ about 1.7
    Bugger. I missed out the Lab / Lib Dem option.

    Thanks for the spot.

    Although I'm not exactly sure what the 10.5 for any other covers in realistic terms? Lab / SNP and Lab / Con grand I guess.

    Milliband has ruled it out formal SNP deal, Grand seems improbable.

    I think I'm going to lay this.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,415
    Lab Votes, Lab Seats 235.52
    Lab votes, Con seats 210.49
    Con votes, Lab Seats 188.95
    Con Votes, Con seats 45.43 atm,

    Hmm be interesting to watch the Yougov later.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 43,484
    Omnium said:

    FPT: @ManchesterKurt and @JJ

    New, and clear, lines.

    The current system is constrained - it's about changing those constraints. If you stick a fast train on a crap line you'll get tiny improvements - I'm reasonably sure that there's no degradation. Fast trains on fast lines (exclusively) though works.

    Which is HS2. But if you make that Maglev, you would have to replicate all the high speed traffic patterns - for instance Glasgow to London or get people to change to the Maglev line wherever it starts.

    Having a high-speed rail lines means that some existing services can be diverted along it, freeing capacity on the old lines.

    As an aside, such a conversation should perhaps stray into the cost of upgrading existing lines. The WCML took years longer than expected, was under spec (e.g. 125 MPH instead of 140 MPH), and cost around £10 billion against the expected £2 billion. People who claim we can upgrade existing lines to gain extra capacity need to remember that it is massively expensive to rebuild existing lines whilst keeping them in traffic.

    http://www.nao.org.uk/report/the-modernisation-of-the-west-coast-main-line/
  • compouter2compouter2 Posts: 2,371
    Evening all, what is Labours biggest lead in the Yougov's this year?
  • PongPong Posts: 4,693
    edited April 2015
    TGOHF said:

    Ooof
    @SkyNews: Tesco to announce statutory pre-tax losses of well over £5bn, Sky News understands http://t.co/DNAqN1ACPj http://t.co/d1uOu7fx1X

    Understands what? Understands what it's like to make a loss?

    :)
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,415
    Yes, this is the electionforecast index.
  • *** Betting Post ***
    If asked to nominate the very worst value political bet in the entire market - and there are literally hundreds and hundreds to choose from, my pick would have to be Betfair Sportsbook's odds of 0.7/1 for the Greens Deposit Losses to be less than 20%.
    Already dipping nationally below the crucial deposit-saving 5% level and continuing to leak support as the GE draws ever closer, they are standing for the first time in literally scores of seats where they have little or no established organised support structure within such constituencies.
    In these circumstances, I would assess the correct odds for this bet as being in the region of at least 3/1 - 4/1. Better value in my view would be the 41% - 50% band on offer at 9/2 or even the 51% - 60% band available at 7/1.
    As ever, DYOR.

    PfP - you're reading it the wrong way round. The 0.7/1 is for them to SAVE fewer than 20% of their deposits.

    Some of us are on that at 8/1.
    Really? I stand to be corrected but that's not the way I read the market in question on Oddschecker:
    http://www.oddschecker.com/politics/british-politics/next-uk-general-election/greens-deposit-losses-percentage
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,043
    edited April 2015

    Evening all, what is Labours biggest lead in the Yougov's this year?

    4%, 4-5 March and 27-28 March

    Tories had a 4% lead on 8-9 March ;)
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633

    Evening all, what is Labours biggest lead in the Yougov's this year?

    Have all YG polls ever been Lab +1 ?
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,415
    Hanretty is the only chap providing constituency probabilities.
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 10,913

    Omnium said:

    FPT: @ManchesterKurt and @JJ

    New, and clear, lines.

    The current system is constrained - it's about changing those constraints. If you stick a fast train on a crap line you'll get tiny improvements - I'm reasonably sure that there's no degradation. Fast trains on fast lines (exclusively) though works.

    New and clear lines, you mean like HS2?

    So, does HS2 or maglev remove more intercity services off the legacy network?

    From the WCML, by building HS2 from London to Brum and Manc you also remove the intercity services from Glasgow, Carlisle, Lancaster, Preston, Wigan, Warrington, Liverpool, Crewe etc from the WCML - freeing up many paths on the WCML for more freight and commuter services between the towns and cities on the WCML.

    Now, please answer this very simple question, if you build a brand new maglev line from London to Brum and Manc, how many of those services from Glasgow, Carlisle, Lancaster, Preston, Wigan, Warrington, Liverpool, Crewe etc can be removed from the old WCML?

    Simple question that gets straight to the point as to why maglev is useless.

    Simple question that I guarantee you will not even try to answer.

    You seem to be missing the point that HS2 creates the capacity on the OLD network for new services on the OLD network, not just on HS2.
    I shall try to answer!

    A Maglev line by definition wouldn't be interchangeable. So such a line would remove no existing services. Zero.

    As there's no overlap at all then I don't see that you've defined 'useless' very well.

    HS2 does provide capacity over the old network. Great - it's a plus. However I can perhaps give you a great dial-up connection these days, but you ain't going to embrace it against the new technologies available to access the internet.



  • Tissue_PriceTissue_Price Posts: 9,039
    edited April 2015

    *** Betting Post ***
    If asked to nominate the very worst value political bet in the entire market - and there are literally hundreds and hundreds to choose from, my pick would have to be Betfair Sportsbook's odds of 0.7/1 for the Greens Deposit Losses to be less than 20%.
    Already dipping nationally below the crucial deposit-saving 5% level and continuing to leak support as the GE draws ever closer, they are standing for the first time in literally scores of seats where they have little or no established organised support structure within such constituencies.
    In these circumstances, I would assess the correct odds for this bet as being in the region of at least 3/1 - 4/1. Better value in my view would be the 41% - 50% band on offer at 9/2 or even the 51% - 60% band available at 7/1.
    As ever, DYOR.

    PfP - you're reading it the wrong way round. The 0.7/1 is for them to SAVE fewer than 20% of their deposits.

    Some of us are on that at 8/1.
    Really? I stand to be corrected but that's not the way I read the market in question on Oddschecker:
    http://www.oddschecker.com/politics/british-politics/next-uk-general-election/greens-deposit-losses-percentage
    Never trust Oddschecker on unusual market descriptions - go to the source.

    PS Given your misapprehension, you should have been advising MAX BETTING the 40/1, shame on you!
  • compouter2compouter2 Posts: 2,371
    RobD said:

    Evening all, what is Labours biggest lead in the Yougov's this year?

    4%, 4-5 March and 27-28 March

    Tories had a 4% lead on 8-9 March ;)
    Think I will stick around for this one ;-)
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,043

    RobD said:

    Evening all, what is Labours biggest lead in the Yougov's this year?

    4%, 4-5 March and 27-28 March

    Tories had a 4% lead on 8-9 March ;)
    Think I will stick around for this one ;-)
    Are you TND? :D
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    edited April 2015

    RobD said:

    Evening all, what is Labours biggest lead in the Yougov's this year?

    4%, 4-5 March and 27-28 March

    Tories had a 4% lead on 8-9 March ;)
    Think I will stick around for this one ;-)
    Can I have +6 in the sweep ?
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,415

    *** Betting Post ***
    If asked to nominate the very worst value political bet in the entire market - and there are literally hundreds and hundreds to choose from, my pick would have to be Betfair Sportsbook's odds of 0.7/1 for the Greens Deposit Losses to be less than 20%.
    Already dipping nationally below the crucial deposit-saving 5% level and continuing to leak support as the GE draws ever closer, they are standing for the first time in literally scores of seats where they have little or no established organised support structure within such constituencies.
    In these circumstances, I would assess the correct odds for this bet as being in the region of at least 3/1 - 4/1. Better value in my view would be the 41% - 50% band on offer at 9/2 or even the 51% - 60% band available at 7/1.
    As ever, DYOR.

    PfP - you're reading it the wrong way round. The 0.7/1 is for them to SAVE fewer than 20% of their deposits.

    Some of us are on that at 8/1.
    Really? I stand to be corrected but that's not the way I read the market in question on Oddschecker:
    http://www.oddschecker.com/politics/british-politics/next-uk-general-election/greens-deposit-losses-percentage
    Never trust Oddschecker on unusual market descriptions - go to the source.
    Sometimes oddschecker gets horses wrong.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    TGOHF said:

    Ooof
    @SkyNews: Tesco to announce statutory pre-tax losses of well over £5bn, Sky News understands http://t.co/DNAqN1ACPj http://t.co/d1uOu7fx1X

    It's all write downs, way less exciting than it could have been, they don't (seem) to have cash flow problems and its cash flow problems that kill companies.
  • compouter2compouter2 Posts: 2,371
    TGOHF said:

    RobD said:

    Evening all, what is Labours biggest lead in the Yougov's this year?

    4%, 4-5 March and 27-28 March

    Tories had a 4% lead on 8-9 March ;)
    Think I will stick around for this one ;-)
    Can I have +6 in the sweep ?
    Which party?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,587
    Hadn't realised the Tories had ever managed such a large lead with YouGov. False alarm then, even a repeat, if it happens, would be full ;)

    This had better not be a no change.
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 10,913

    Omnium said:

    FPT: @ManchesterKurt and @JJ

    New, and clear, lines.

    The current system is constrained - it's about changing those constraints. If you stick a fast train on a crap line you'll get tiny improvements - I'm reasonably sure that there's no degradation. Fast trains on fast lines (exclusively) though works.

    Which is HS2. But if you make that Maglev, you would have to replicate all the high speed traffic patterns - for instance Glasgow to London or get people to change to the Maglev line wherever it starts.

    Having a high-speed rail lines means that some existing services can be diverted along it, freeing capacity on the old lines.

    As an aside, such a conversation should perhaps stray into the cost of upgrading existing lines. The WCML took years longer than expected, was under spec (e.g. 125 MPH instead of 140 MPH), and cost around £10 billion against the expected £2 billion. People who claim we can upgrade existing lines to gain extra capacity need to remember that it is massively expensive to rebuild existing lines whilst keeping them in traffic.

    http://www.nao.org.uk/report/the-modernisation-of-the-west-coast-main-line/
    Well precisely you've nailed it - the costs of building tunnels, acquiring land, etc are likely to be bigger than the technology costs. Moreover the replacement technology cots will be high too- so build ambitiously!

  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633

    TGOHF said:

    RobD said:

    Evening all, what is Labours biggest lead in the Yougov's this year?

    4%, 4-5 March and 27-28 March

    Tories had a 4% lead on 8-9 March ;)
    Think I will stick around for this one ;-)
    Can I have +6 in the sweep ?
    Which party?
    Natural Law.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,415
    Alistair said:

    TGOHF said:

    Ooof
    @SkyNews: Tesco to announce statutory pre-tax losses of well over £5bn, Sky News understands http://t.co/DNAqN1ACPj http://t.co/d1uOu7fx1X

    It's all write downs, way less exciting than it could have been, they don't (seem) to have cash flow problems and its cash flow problems that kill companies.
    Cash flow hmm...

    Must be nice to have :)
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,533
    Has anybody told the Metro there is an election on? 100's of people dying trying to cross the Med to Europe? ISIS still killing people every day.....

    Tomorrow's front page with the big important story...Jamelia says fatties shouldn't be able to buy cool clothes on the high street.

    Jesus wept.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826

    Omnium said:

    FPT: @ManchesterKurt and @JJ

    New, and clear, lines.

    The current system is constrained - it's about changing those constraints. If you stick a fast train on a crap line you'll get tiny improvements - I'm reasonably sure that there's no degradation. Fast trains on fast lines (exclusively) though works.

    New and clear lines, you mean like HS2?

    So, does HS2 or maglev remove more intercity services off the legacy network?

    From the WCML, by building HS2 from London to Brum and Manc you also remove the intercity services from Glasgow, Carlisle, Lancaster, Preston, Wigan, Warrington, Liverpool, Crewe etc from the WCML - freeing up many paths on the WCML for more freight and commuter services between the towns and cities on the WCML.

    Now, please answer this very simple question, if you build a brand new maglev line from London to Brum and Manc, how many of those services from Glasgow, Carlisle, Lancaster, Preston, Wigan, Warrington, Liverpool, Crewe etc can be removed from the old WCML?

    Simple question that gets straight to the point as to why maglev is useless.

    Simple question that I guarantee you will not even try to answer.

    You seem to be missing the point that HS2 creates the capacity on the OLD network for new services on the OLD network, not just on HS2.
    Will HS2 stop at Warrington, Preston etc?

    I thought it was only stopping at the major stations like Manc, Brum, London etc - so the major long-distance services are taken off the main line while local inter-city ones aren't.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,415
    Tories will be ahead
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,043
    edited April 2015
    I'm gonna go for a tie.

    Edit: or Tories on 42%, as I said before :)
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,415
    RobD said:

    I'm gonna go for a tie.

    Edit: or Tories on 42%, as I said before :)

    42% would be a game changer tbh.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 43,046
    Lab < 30%
  • maaarshmaaarsh Posts: 3,591
    Alistair said:

    TGOHF said:

    Ooof
    @SkyNews: Tesco to announce statutory pre-tax losses of well over £5bn, Sky News understands http://t.co/DNAqN1ACPj http://t.co/d1uOu7fx1X

    It's all write downs, way less exciting than it could have been, they don't (seem) to have cash flow problems and its cash flow problems that kill companies.
    You say that like it's remotely surprising. It takes a special kind of incompetence to run out of cash in a company which has 0 days on sales and 90 days on purchases.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 43,484

    How about this for a civil engineering horrorshow:

    http://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2015/apr/21/huge-10-ton-fatberg-removed-chelsea-sewer-london

    Bit dodgy, Chelsea...

    Albeit it a better class of fat.
    My dad's company had a contract to supply a large pumping unit every few months. Each time it was used for a couple of days to pump and flush a sump - hardly an unusual request.

    Unfortunately the sump belonged to an abattoir.

    Even after cleaning, it used to be in such a hideous, stinky state that the same unit was kept on some clear land until the next time they hired it, and was not hired out to anyone else.

    It would have been far cheaper for them to buy one. And less messy for us.
  • TykejohnnoTykejohnno Posts: 7,362

    RobD said:

    Evening all, what is Labours biggest lead in the Yougov's this year?

    4%, 4-5 March and 27-28 March

    Tories had a 4% lead on 8-9 March ;)
    Think I will stick around for this one ;-)
    Tease ;-)

  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,043
    edited April 2015
    Pulpstar said:

    RobD said:

    I'm gonna go for a tie.

    Edit: or Tories on 42%, as I said before :)

    42% would be a game changer tbh.
    I am pretty sure I would feel a great disturbance in the Force. As if a million Basils cried out momentarily, and then fell silent..............
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    the ramping suggests big Labour lead
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 10,913
    Greece is just politics now. We'll either have the most scandalous betrayal of electoral promises ever, or chaos.

    It won't be the latter because none of the interested parties want that.

    Lord knows what the Greeks will make of this!
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,043

    How about this for a civil engineering horrorshow:

    http://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2015/apr/21/huge-10-ton-fatberg-removed-chelsea-sewer-london

    Bit dodgy, Chelsea...

    Albeit it a better class of fat.
    My dad's company had a contract to supply a large pumping unit every few months. Each time it was used for a couple of days to pump and flush a sump - hardly an unusual request.

    Unfortunately the sump belonged to an abattoir.

    Even after cleaning, it used to be in such a hideous, stinky state that the same unit was kept on some clear land until the next time they hired it, and was not hired out to anyone else.

    It would have been far cheaper for them to buy one. And less messy for us.
    That sounds pretty horrific. Some people have jobs I just couldn't cope with.
  • PongPong Posts: 4,693

    Pong said:

    TGOHF said:

    I think someone is trying to force the price down on EM4PM. £4500 looking to back 1.79 (with commission) when Ladbrokes would probably happily lay 5/6 and plenty of firms are 4/5.

    Naughty naughty.
    It's a free market. Ultimately someone will probably call their bluff.
    It seems very out of whack with the next government market where the sum total of Lab maj, Lab min and any other imply a probability of just less than 50%

    Lay Ed PM and back the various Labour next governments for some free money
    Hmm - not sure about the maths there - I make all the lab govts + any other = 59.2% @ current odds. That's equivalent to backing EdPM @ about 1.7
    Bugger. I missed out the Lab / Lib Dem option.

    Thanks for the spot.

    Although I'm not exactly sure what the 10.5 for any other covers in realistic terms? Lab / SNP and Lab / Con grand I guess.

    Milliband has ruled it out formal SNP deal, Grand seems improbable.

    I think I'm going to lay this.
    I've been backing "any other"

    My reading of this is eg;

    Con minority with DUP attending cabinet
    LAB + LD coalition, with the SNP providing c&s, or abstaining

    Basically any arrangement that isn't specifically listed, of which there are many.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,415
    Scott_P said:

    the ramping suggests big Labour lead

    Nope - It will be the Conservatives ahead. I reckon that was the basis of Peter From Putney's bet offers on Con/Lab lead - Just look at Newton Dunn ;)
  • tysontyson Posts: 6,117
    Pulpstar said:

    Hanretty is the only chap providing constituency probabilities.

    Pulps
    Doesn't EC provide these too- well predictions which are as good as?
    http://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/regions.html
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,043
    Scott_P said:

    the ramping suggests big Labour lead

    Maybe it would finaly put to bed that argument that good-for-blue YouGovs are announced early on Twitter, while good-for-red are not.
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    RobD said:

    I'm gonna go for a tie.

    A kipper tie? Or has that one been done?
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,415
    tyson said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Hanretty is the only chap providing constituency probabilities.

    Pulps
    Doesn't EC provide these too- well predictions which are as good as?
    http://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/regions.html
    Hanretty's methodology is better, the correspondence with the West/East of Scotland was in there way before.

    Also the longshot potential with Baxter is... overstated imo.

    I've generally been a favourites backer on the Tories in constituency markets - some exceptions of course.
  • peter_from_putneypeter_from_putney Posts: 6,956
    edited April 2015

    *** Betting Post ***
    If asked to nominate the very worst value political bet in the entire market - and there are literally hundreds and hundreds to choose from, my pick would have to be Betfair Sportsbook's odds of 0.7/1 for the Greens Deposit Losses to be less than 20%.
    Already dipping nationally below the crucial deposit-saving 5% level and continuing to leak support as the GE draws ever closer, they are standing for the first time in literally scores of seats where they have little or no established organised support structure within such constituencies.
    In these circumstances, I would assess the correct odds for this bet as being in the region of at least 3/1 - 4/1. Better value in my view would be the 41% - 50% band on offer at 9/2 or even the 51% - 60% band available at 7/1.
    As ever, DYOR.

    PfP - you're reading it the wrong way round. The 0.7/1 is for them to SAVE fewer than 20% of their deposits.

    Some of us are on that at 8/1.
    Really? I stand to be corrected but that's not the way I read the market in question on Oddschecker:
    http://www.oddschecker.com/politics/british-politics/next-uk-general-election/greens-deposit-losses-percentage
    Never trust Oddschecker on unusual market descriptions - go to the source.

    PS Given your misapprehension, you should have been advising MAX BETTING the 40/1, shame on you!
    Yes, I see it now ...... blasted Oddschecker getting this 100% round their neck and making me look a complete idiot .... Grrh!
    Sorry PBers.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    Isn't YG normally posted here at 10pm? Is it late or am I being impatient?
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,043
    If Lab is ahead, compouter2 must surely be an insider!
  • YouGov/Sun Conservatives on 35%, Labour 34%, Ukip 13%, Lib Dems 7% and Greens 5%.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,415
    Pong said:

    Pong said:

    TGOHF said:

    I think someone is trying to force the price down on EM4PM. £4500 looking to back 1.79 (with commission) when Ladbrokes would probably happily lay 5/6 and plenty of firms are 4/5.

    Naughty naughty.
    It's a free market. Ultimately someone will probably call their bluff.
    It seems very out of whack with the next government market where the sum total of Lab maj, Lab min and any other imply a probability of just less than 50%

    Lay Ed PM and back the various Labour next governments for some free money
    Hmm - not sure about the maths there - I make all the lab govts + any other = 59.2% @ current odds. That's equivalent to backing EdPM @ about 1.7
    Bugger. I missed out the Lab / Lib Dem option.

    Thanks for the spot.

    Although I'm not exactly sure what the 10.5 for any other covers in realistic terms? Lab / SNP and Lab / Con grand I guess.

    Milliband has ruled it out formal SNP deal, Grand seems improbable.

    I think I'm going to lay this.
    I've been backing "any other"

    My reading of this is eg;

    Con minority with DUP attending cabinet
    LAB + LD coalition, with the SNP providing c&s, or abstaining

    Basically any arrangement that isn't specifically listed, of which there are many.
    Wouldn't Lab + Lib Dem coalition be settled as err Lib/Lab coalition even if its a minority coalition ?
  • SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,780
    Seeng rumours of tories on 38% but just rumours
  • frpenkridgefrpenkridge Posts: 670
    OGH!!!! What a great broadcasting voice. I feel he should have been around in 1940, giving reassuring talks to the nation during the dark days of the war.
  • Sun YouGov poll finds

    TWO million English and Welsh voters could swing back to the Tories to keep a Labour-SNP axis out of government, a dramatic poll has revealed.

    A third of all current Ukip voters - 35% - and one in five Lib Dems - 19% - fear Ed Miliband would share power with Nicola Sturgeon to get into No10.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,415

    YouGov/Sun Conservatives on 35%, Labour 34%, Ukip 13%, Lib Dems 7% and Greens 5%.

    NEWTON DUNN RAMPS THE MOE
  • SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,780

    YouGov/Sun Conservatives on 35%, Labour 34%, Ukip 13%, Lib Dems 7% and Greens 5%.

    Nothng too exciting then
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,043

    YouGov/Sun Conservatives on 35%, Labour 34%, Ukip 13%, Lib Dems 7% and Greens 5%.

    The tipping point of the day the polls changed. Perhaps? :D
  • The more they bleat, the more it suggests the pain.

    Chuka Umunna‏@ChukaUmunna·5 mins5 minutes ago
    Major desperation from the PM & his party in every sense today. Their negative & divisive campaign is tanking and they don't know what to do
  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549

    YouGov/Sun Conservatives on 35%, Labour 34%, Ukip 13%, Lib Dems 7% and Greens 5%.

    Is this it ?
  • TykejohnnoTykejohnno Posts: 7,362

    YouGov/Sun Conservatives on 35%, Labour 34%, Ukip 13%, Lib Dems 7% and Greens 5%.

    Is that it.

  • asjohnstoneasjohnstone Posts: 1,276
    Pong said:

    Pong said:

    TGOHF said:

    I think someone is trying to force the price down on EM4PM. £4500 looking to back 1.79 (with commission) when Ladbrokes would probably happily lay 5/6 and plenty of firms are 4/5.

    Naughty naughty.
    It's a free market. Ultimately someone will probably call their bluff.
    It seems very out of whack with the next government market where the sum total of Lab maj, Lab min and any other imply a probability of just less than 50%

    Lay Ed PM and back the various Labour next governments for some free money
    Hmm - not sure about the maths there - I make all the lab govts + any other = 59.2% @ current odds. That's equivalent to backing EdPM @ about 1.7
    Bugger. I missed out the Lab / Lib Dem option.

    Thanks for the spot.

    Although I'm not exactly sure what the 10.5 for any other covers in realistic terms? Lab / SNP and Lab / Con grand I guess.

    Milliband has ruled it out formal SNP deal, Grand seems improbable.

    I think I'm going to lay this.
    I've been backing "any other"

    My reading of this is eg;

    Con minority with DUP attending cabinet
    LAB + LD coalition, with the SNP providing c&s, or abstaining

    Basically any arrangement that isn't specifically listed, of which there are many.
    My read of the market rules is that Lab + LD with SNP providing C&S would be settled as a LAB+LD coalition not as any other.

    "A Coalition Government is one which has members from at least two parties attending Cabinet meetings and are said to “have a seat at Cabinet”. A minority Government would see all the Cabinet posts filled by one party, but supply and confidence would be enjoyed by that party by one or more other parties in Parliament in order to pass votes and budgets etc."


    If there isn't SNP cabinet members, then it's a Lab + LD winner I think. The DUP one is interesting, I did consider it but ruled it out, what cabinet post do you think they could get? Sec State for NI is clearly off the table as this post requires a neutral figure.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633

    The more they bleat, the more it suggests the pain.

    Chuka Umunna‏@ChukaUmunna·5 mins5 minutes ago
    Major desperation from the PM & his party in every sense today. Their negative & divisive campaign is tanking and they don't know what to do

    Stuff like this only gains traction if there is a grain of truth underlying matters.
  • you are joking.
  • And in that scenario the huge figure, which is 8% of all voters, would prefer David Cameron to stay on – meaning they may be ready to change their vote.
  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549

    YouGov/Sun Conservatives on 35%, Labour 34%, Ukip 13%, Lib Dems 7% and Greens 5%.

    Is that it.

    Someone or some people made a killing in the meantime !
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,533
    LOL...TND mega ramp.
  • compouter2compouter2 Posts: 2,371
    RobD said:

    Pulpstar said:

    RobD said:

    I'm gonna go for a tie.

    Edit: or Tories on 42%, as I said before :)

    42% would be a game changer tbh.
    I am pretty sure I would feel a great disturbance in the Force. As if a million Basils cried out momentarily, and then fell silent..............
    With joy. Basil keeps whailing for those heady days when he was told of Crossover January, yearns for pulling away February and cries out for consistant Tory majority winning leads March. He has been known to wake up screaming out "Where the Feck is Crosbys swingback."

    Still he wanders on, with his goalposts aloft and through tears of pain all he can see in front of him is six huge letters .....E....I....C....I....P.....M.

    You have got to feel for the little feller.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,043

    Sun YouGov poll finds

    TWO million English and Welsh voters could swing back to the Tories to keep a Labour-SNP axis out of government, a dramatic poll has revealed.

    A third of all current Ukip voters - 35% - and one in five Lib Dems - 19% - fear Ed Miliband would share power with Nicola Sturgeon to get into No10.

    Isn't two million voters ~8% of the electorate? So that'd put the tories on 43%? :D:D:D
This discussion has been closed.