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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Podcast discussion on general election betting between Mike
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Podcast discussion on general election betting between Mike Smithson and Graham Sharpe of William Hill
This was recorded this morning.
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FPT as may be relevant in 80 minutes time:
I'm quite serious about 1% being MOE on the new YouGov methodology. Maybe 1.5%. I think that's why they introduced the new methodology, in fact - to make sure they were picking up genuine switchers.
YouGov have basically had this 34.5%-33.5% to Labour ever since they changed. Anything substantially different would be very interesting, though naturally you'd want to see it more-or-less repeated tomorrow.
Maglev is pretty useless at achieving the things that HS2 Ltd were setup to address in 2009 when Network Rail highlighted the WCML and ECML were rapidly running out of TRACK capacity.
A new poster for the Con council seats of Evington and North Evington vandalised the day it went up on Humberstone rd.
I wore my tartan tie (usually kept for Burns night) today. No animosity to Scots or indeed remarks about the election from either patients or staff.
One of my recently naturalised foreign Doctors popped his head into my office to sing God save the Queen. I looked blank for a bit until the penny dropped: the Queens birthday. On the one hand he has assimilated both knowledge and loyalty, but on the other hand he has not assimilated British reticence in these matters...
https://www.facebook.com/977HTZFM/photos/a.100562179997735.144.100295090024444/705812092806071/?type=1
we shall see.
@PeterAdamSmith: Youth delegates at @ScottishTUC tell me they staged a walk-out at the president's dinner tonight in protest at Jim Murphy attending.
I'm very impressed with the intimate knowledge of both. Sharpe is as smart as a whip as you'd expect from a bookie and our OGH comes across as the all knowing sage and seer.
Talking about good,how good is your youth team.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/sport/football/article-3047722/Manchester-City-U18-1-3-Chelsea-U18-Tammy-Abraham-stars-Blues-FA-Youth-Cup-final-advantage-west-London.html
New, and clear, lines.
The current system is constrained - it's about changing those constraints. If you stick a fast train on a crap line you'll get tiny improvements - I'm reasonably sure that there's no degradation. Fast trains on fast lines (exclusively) though works.
Lay Ed PM and back the various Labour next governments for some free money
Doubt many of them will break through with Mourinho in charge though.
If asked to nominate the very worst value political bet in the entire market - and there are literally hundreds and hundreds to choose from, my pick would have to be Betfair Sportsbook's odds of 0.7/1 for the Greens Deposit Losses to be less than 20%.
Already dipping nationally below the crucial deposit-saving 5% level and continuing to leak support as the GE draws ever closer, they are standing for the first time in literally scores of seats where they have little or no established organised support structure within such constituencies.
In these circumstances, I would assess the correct odds for this bet as being in the region of at least 3/1 - 4/1. Far better value in my view would be the 41% - 50% band on offer at 9/2 or even the 51% - 60% band available at 7/1.
As ever, DYOR.
However I've read enough, and talked to enough people, to believe that it is virtually never the best solution to a problem, at least with current technology.
But I quite like dreamers ...
Some of us are on that at 8/1.
http://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2015/apr/21/huge-10-ton-fatberg-removed-chelsea-sewer-london
Bit dodgy, Chelsea...
So, does HS2 or maglev remove more intercity services off the legacy network?
From the WCML, by building HS2 from London to Brum and Manc you also remove the intercity services from Glasgow, Carlisle, Lancaster, Preston, Wigan, Warrington, Liverpool, Crewe etc from the WCML - freeing up many paths on the WCML for more freight and commuter services between the towns and cities on the WCML.
Now, please answer this very simple question, if you build a brand new maglev line from London to Brum and Manc, how many of those services from Glasgow, Carlisle, Lancaster, Preston, Wigan, Warrington, Liverpool, Crewe etc can be removed from the old WCML?
Simple question that gets straight to the point as to why maglev is useless.
Simple question that I guarantee you will not even try to answer.
You seem to be missing the point that HS2 creates the capacity on the OLD network for new services on the OLD network, not just on HS2.
@SkyNews: Tesco to announce statutory pre-tax losses of well over £5bn, Sky News understands http://t.co/DNAqN1ACPj http://t.co/d1uOu7fx1X
Mike finishes the interview with the gamblers lament. Fascinating interview- though I had to pause it whilst England were reviewing an lbw shout.
Definition of statutory profit or loss
A statutory loss (or profit) is simply the bottom line of a company's profit and loss account. It includes everything that must be added and deducted from revenue to comply with legal and accounting requirements.
Companies often contrast it with "underlying profit" (or loss) which would normally exclude "exceptional" items, leaving, as some might put it, profit without the bad stuff.
Sounds like they are getting all their bad news out at once.
Thanks for the spot.
Although I'm not exactly sure what the 10.5 for any other covers in realistic terms? Lab / SNP and Lab / Con grand I guess.
Milliband has ruled it out formal SNP deal, Grand seems improbable.
I think I'm going to lay this.
Lab votes, Con seats 210.49
Con votes, Lab Seats 188.95
Con Votes, Con seats 45.43 atm,
Hmm be interesting to watch the Yougov later.
Having a high-speed rail lines means that some existing services can be diverted along it, freeing capacity on the old lines.
As an aside, such a conversation should perhaps stray into the cost of upgrading existing lines. The WCML took years longer than expected, was under spec (e.g. 125 MPH instead of 140 MPH), and cost around £10 billion against the expected £2 billion. People who claim we can upgrade existing lines to gain extra capacity need to remember that it is massively expensive to rebuild existing lines whilst keeping them in traffic.
http://www.nao.org.uk/report/the-modernisation-of-the-west-coast-main-line/
https://twitter.com/BBCNewsnight/status/590582190020386817/photo/1
http://www.oddschecker.com/politics/british-politics/next-uk-general-election/greens-deposit-losses-percentage
Tories had a 4% lead on 8-9 March
A Maglev line by definition wouldn't be interchangeable. So such a line would remove no existing services. Zero.
As there's no overlap at all then I don't see that you've defined 'useless' very well.
HS2 does provide capacity over the old network. Great - it's a plus. However I can perhaps give you a great dial-up connection these days, but you ain't going to embrace it against the new technologies available to access the internet.
PS Given your misapprehension, you should have been advising MAX BETTING the 40/1, shame on you!
This had better not be a no change.
Must be nice to have
Tomorrow's front page with the big important story...Jamelia says fatties shouldn't be able to buy cool clothes on the high street.
Jesus wept.
I thought it was only stopping at the major stations like Manc, Brum, London etc - so the major long-distance services are taken off the main line while local inter-city ones aren't.
Edit: or Tories on 42%, as I said before
Apols if already posted here.
https://uk.news.yahoo.com/woman-pleads-guilty-running-over-husband-not-voting-201257825--politics.html#9Fz4RpL
Unfortunately the sump belonged to an abattoir.
Even after cleaning, it used to be in such a hideous, stinky state that the same unit was kept on some clear land until the next time they hired it, and was not hired out to anyone else.
It would have been far cheaper for them to buy one. And less messy for us.
It won't be the latter because none of the interested parties want that.
Lord knows what the Greeks will make of this!
My reading of this is eg;
Con minority with DUP attending cabinet
LAB + LD coalition, with the SNP providing c&s, or abstaining
Basically any arrangement that isn't specifically listed, of which there are many.
Doesn't EC provide these too- well predictions which are as good as?
http://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/regions.html
Also the longshot potential with Baxter is... overstated imo.
I've generally been a favourites backer on the Tories in constituency markets - some exceptions of course.
Sorry PBers.
TWO million English and Welsh voters could swing back to the Tories to keep a Labour-SNP axis out of government, a dramatic poll has revealed.
A third of all current Ukip voters - 35% - and one in five Lib Dems - 19% - fear Ed Miliband would share power with Nicola Sturgeon to get into No10.
Chuka Umunna@ChukaUmunna·5 mins5 minutes ago
Major desperation from the PM & his party in every sense today. Their negative & divisive campaign is tanking and they don't know what to do
"A Coalition Government is one which has members from at least two parties attending Cabinet meetings and are said to “have a seat at Cabinet”. A minority Government would see all the Cabinet posts filled by one party, but supply and confidence would be enjoyed by that party by one or more other parties in Parliament in order to pass votes and budgets etc."
If there isn't SNP cabinet members, then it's a Lab + LD winner I think. The DUP one is interesting, I did consider it but ruled it out, what cabinet post do you think they could get? Sec State for NI is clearly off the table as this post requires a neutral figure.
Still he wanders on, with his goalposts aloft and through tears of pain all he can see in front of him is six huge letters .....E....I....C....I....P.....M.
You have got to feel for the little feller.