Sun Politics @SunPolitics YouGov/Sun poll tonight - Labour lead by two: CON 33%, LAB 35%, LD 8%, UKIP 13%, GRN 5%.
Hee Hee. Ain't nothing shifting the trend of a virtual tie for more than single poll or two. The parties must be getting very frustrated at us all for being so very indecisive.
Mirror can't even muster a "Tory baby eating scum launch manifesto that will take us back to the dark ages" headline. Most disappointing, must do better.
The abuse is totally out of order.
I suspect what Top Gear fans want is someone similar to Jeremy Clarkson. Not in behaviour, but someone who will take risks, make controversial jokes, stimulate banter and make it work with May and Hammond. Keep it an exciting and edgy show.
Sue Perkins and Dermot O'Leary? Standard left-wing BBC comedy fodder. The executives will love them, but the fans won't.
Top Gear would die.
Topgear needs a real petrolhead; not some presenter from elsewhere. Who had heard of Clarkson, Hammond and May before Topgear?
It is typical of the media to believe the star makes the show, when really it is the show that made the star. Get some proper driver or motor journalist in!
In one sense I could almost wish we don't have a referendum, as I am bloody sick of reading reports of how the rest of Europe is getting fed up of seeing us drag our feet and how they are 'losing patience' with us, as though the lack of enthusiasm of the British public is something our leaders are supposed to just ignore (which in fairness they have tried, but is becoming increasingly difficult) for the sake of not ruining everyone elses good time.
If the Conservatives are going to win, can they at least do it properly so this IHT stuff gets through. Can see it being the first thing to be chucked out with the Lib Dem negotiations again.
frpenkridge said: Walking home in Penkridge at 8.30 this evening I passed a group of people staring at a light in the sky. They said it was the international space station, on an unusually low orbit.
That will probably be Venus. Low down towards the west.
THe ISS moves very quickly.
Does that not depend upon your point-of-view within the space-time continuum? One would imagine Venus travels faster (due such things as mass and gravitational-forces)...?
Does anyone have a transcript of the 7-way debate? Would really help my buzzword betting for the 5-way. Also the format of the 5-way: do they get opening/closing statements?
frpenkridge said: Walking home in Penkridge at 8.30 this evening I passed a group of people staring at a light in the sky. They said it was the international space station, on an unusually low orbit.
That will probably be Venus. Low down towards the west.
THe ISS moves very quickly.
Does that not depend upon your point-of-view within the space-time continuum? One would imagine Venus travels faster (due such things as mass and gravitational-forces)...?
I feel a Father Ted quote coming on of something smaller because it's far away
If ComRes and the phone pollsters are right, and a Tory lead has been growing all year, YouGov are going to be in a spot of bother for publishing inaccurate polls every day for 5 years...
Remember that following their methodology change at the beginning of this month , Yougov are no longer primarily producing a GE VI forecast . Their methodology change is designed to measure VI changes from Jan/Feb this year . If their polls were wrong then . weighting to those figures will ensure that they are wrong now
Didn`t Martin Boon of ICM claim that the sample was more Tory than usual?
I could have accepted Con36-Lab 33 but a 6 point advantage seems way off the mean of all polls.
The Scottish Tories were far too high for the sample at any rate, and Labour were too low there - even by Scottish Labour standards. That certainly skewed it a bit...
The England only polling showed a swing to Labour still.
YouGov stuck. But it does get a lot of attention purely due to its frequency.
I expect a move to the Tory of 1-2% off the back of the good coverage today, but no more. If they don't get that, I agree there may be trouble ahead.
I think the recent changes to Yougovs methodology are likely to make any change pretty slight. I am unconvinced at the validity of only looking for switchers that gave an intention online in Jan/Feb:
The Express seems to be switching back to good front pages for UKIP after a couple of recent pro-Cameron pieces. Wonder if that's enough to shift a % one way or another?
Agree that the Tories should get a bounce from today, good coverage albeit of some back of the fag packet 'this'll sound good and we'll worry about it afterwards if we win' proposals.
Brussels doing its bit to ensure Ed Miliband gets elected. This sort of stuff just hardens my resolve to vote Conservative.
Right, must dash. Goodnight.
It's a disgrace. We have a foreign political body attempting to interfere directly with an internal election. I thought that was actually verboten but of course when does the EU ever stick to a rule or even protocol when it doesn't suit them
Brussels doing its bit to ensure Ed Miliband gets elected. This sort of stuff just hardens my resolve to vote Conservative.
Right, must dash. Goodnight.
Brussels is fed up of the UK and a significant faction are up for co-operating with UK souverainistes to get us out. If you think front pages of a row between Cameron and Brussels help Ed Miliband electorally, you do need a good night's rest
YouGov stuck. But it does get a lot of attention purely due to its frequency.
I expect a move to the Tory of 1-2% off the back of the good coverage today, but no more. If they don't get that, I agree there may be trouble ahead.
I think the recent changes to Yougovs methodology are likely to make any change pretty slight. I am unconvinced at the validity of only looking for switchers that gave an intention online in Jan/Feb:
Ross, Skye and Lochaber Edinburgh North and Leith Edinburgh South Glasgow South-West Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale and Tweeddale Berwickshire, Roxburgh and Selkirk East Renfrewshire
And two slightly easier ones:
East Dunbartonshire Fife North-East
Thanks AndyJS for a wonderful resource.
Pulpstar - would love to see those seats polled - particularly RSL, BRS and East Renfrewshire.
Not convinced by the Ashcroft Crewe & Nantwich poll earlier today - with C&N as the following makes clear, you've got to be very careful with your sample given red Crewe and blue rest of the seat. We have no way of knowing where the Ashcroft sample was drawn from, but its stakly divided nature makes it more suspect to faulty sampling, unlike other marginals which are far more uniform in nature. I still think Timpson will hang on narrowly there:
Sun Politics @SunPolitics YouGov/Sun poll tonight - Labour lead by two: CON 33%, LAB 35%, LD 8%, UKIP 13%, GRN 5%.
Hee Hee. Ain't nothing shifting the trend of a virtual tie for more than single poll or two. The parties must be getting very frustrated at us all for being so very indecisive.
I think election campaigns are rather like playing football on a muddy field with a cannon ball.
Its possible to score goals but only if the opposition incapacitates themselves first.
If you value heritage and the natural environment, you are welcome to buy up the park to preserve it.
Otherwise you are trying to use the state's monopoly of force to allow you to choose how other people use their land.
Obviously, if you build a glue plant, then there will be externalities, and those need to be captured somehow.
But otherwise, if you value the environment, get together with some friends who have a similar view and buy some.
No you are allowing a framework to be developed within which everyone can operate. I am not an anarchist and neither, from what I have read, are you. One of the jobs of Government is to provide a framework of contract and criminal law within which all individuals and organisations can work. One part of that is reasonable planning laws that serve everyone and not just the big companies that can afford to pay whatever they want for land.
Besides as you well know one of the powers the local authority has is to force you to sell your property if it gets in the way of a development. So your suggestion of buying up the land doesn't help.
From the website of Barnsley District Council (as an example - almost every council has the same guidelines)
" The powers could be used to deliver a wide range of schemes, such as new public buildings, housing developments, new road building schemes and alterations to existing highways networks, flood defence works, sewer water or gas pipe schemes and even large scale mixed-use regeneration projects."
If ComRes and the phone pollsters are right, and a Tory lead has been growing all year, YouGov are going to be in a spot of bother for publishing inaccurate polls every day for 5 years...
Remember that following their methodology change at the beginning of this month , Yougov are no longer primarily producing a GE VI forecast . Their methodology change is designed to measure VI changes from Jan/Feb this year . If their polls were wrong then . weighting to those figures will ensure that they are wrong now
What is the point of their poll if it is not designed to predict the election result? And if you have to look back at the raw figures of a poll before the inevitable adjustments - well what value is the headline figure? Is there a point to producing a poll every day? I bet (no, I guess) that The Sun only kept on the contact for the 4 day(?) a week polls because they thought there would be a second election soon after 2010. The FTPA scuppered them.
As you say - 5 day a week when (if) your methodology is not (may not be) working is still no good. All they are doing is showing how a poll can swing between 3% either way.
Ross, Skye and Lochaber Edinburgh North and Leith Edinburgh South Glasgow South-West Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale and Tweeddale Berwickshire, Roxburgh and Selkirk East Renfrewshire
And two slightly easier ones:
East Dunbartonshire Fife North-East
Thanks AndyJS for a wonderful resource.
Pulpstar - would love to see those seats polled - particularly RSL, BRS and East Renfrewshire.
Not convinced by the Ashcroft Crewe & Nantwich poll earlier today - with C&N as the following makes clear, you've got to be very careful with your sample given red Crewe and blue rest of the seat. We have no way of knowing where the Ashcroft sample was drawn from, but its stakly divided nature makes it more suspect to faulty sampling, unlike other marginals which are far more uniform in nature. I still think Timpson will hang on narrowly there:
Didn`t Martin Boon of ICM claim that the sample was more Tory than usual?
I could have accepted Con36-Lab 33 but a 6 point advantage seems way off the mean of all polls.
The Scottish Tories were far too high for the sample at any rate, and Labour were too low there - even by Scottish Labour standards. That certainly skewed it a bit...
The England only polling showed a swing to Labour still.
But don't polls make adjustments for 'catching' too many of one party?
Can someone ask somebody senior at YouGov why they expect turnout (as a % of total population, not just registered voters) to be higher amongst 18 to 24s than over 60s.
I would expect that it should actually be about 50% as high (of total population) and 67% as high (of registered voters).
Ross, Skye and Lochaber Edinburgh North and Leith Edinburgh South Glasgow South-West Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale and Tweeddale Berwickshire, Roxburgh and Selkirk East Renfrewshire
And two slightly easier ones:
East Dunbartonshire Fife North-East
Thanks AndyJS for a wonderful resource.
Pulpstar - would love to see those seats polled - particularly RSL, BRS and East Renfrewshire.
Not convinced by the Ashcroft Crewe & Nantwich poll earlier today - with C&N as the following makes clear, you've got to be very careful with your sample given red Crewe and blue rest of the seat. We have no way of knowing where the Ashcroft sample was drawn from, but its stakly divided nature makes it more suspect to faulty sampling, unlike other marginals which are far more uniform in nature. I still think Timpson will hang on narrowly there:
Ross Skye Lochaber and East Renrewshire have been done once.
Berwickshire Roxburgh Selkirk is one of the toughest seats in Scotland for the SNP and could be Tories ahead.
Yep but RSL and East Renfrewshire updates will be interesting.
The Tory candidate in BRS on his twitter feed linked to electoralcalculus showing it a close Tory SNP race, Lib Dems can't win here style bar chart - all good stuff. One of the most fascinating seats this election.
Indeed, the idea that planning is a good idea when it comes to the use and enjoyment of realty but a bad idea when it comes to macro-economic policy is intellectually indefensible. The only reason developers can make any money, for example, by building on floodplains is because there are those who are prepared to buy the houses in question. There is no injustice in the loss lying where it falls when the inevitable occurs.
Wrong for two reasons.
Firstly because the developers make claims that the land is no longer floodplain because of the mitigations they have put in - which are usually a load of balls.
And secondly because what regularly happens is that the works developers put in to try and prevent flooding around their homes, even if not completely successful, move the problem up and down stream so that land that was not previously floodplain now gets flooded.
I am afraid the caveat emptor principle cannot apply when you have lived in a house for generations which has never flooded and it then floods because of unsuitable floodplain development downstream.
YouGov stuck. But it does get a lot of attention purely due to its frequency.
I expect a move to the Tory of 1-2% off the back of the good coverage today, but no more. If they don't get that, I agree there may be trouble ahead.
I think the recent changes to Yougovs methodology are likely to make any change pretty slight. I am unconvinced at the validity of only looking for switchers that gave an intention online in Jan/Feb:
So a the recent yougov 'targets for tonight' of 33 34 35 etc have been clever dummies to fool the navigators and the electoral forces have been wasting their ordinance?
How many people realise that YouGov are not actually (as you seem to be saying) polling a true representative sample of the British Public. I certainly did not.
UKIPs super secret stealth polling is certainly being kept below the radar. If it is showing the failure of UKIPs 5th column then maybe the intelligence on the capture of 36 is not so unreliable?
YouGov stuck. But it does get a lot of attention purely due to its frequency.
I expect a move to the Tory of 1-2% off the back of the good coverage today, but no more. If they don't get that, I agree there may be trouble ahead.
I think the recent changes to Yougovs methodology are likely to make any change pretty slight. I am unconvinced at the validity of only looking for switchers that gave an intention online in Jan/Feb:
How confident are you that UKIP will really do so poorly at converting votes into seats?
Not as confident as the model says we are, for many of the reasons noted above. UKIP performance is uncertain in a way that is very difficult to model. Because UKIP has such a limited record in parliamentary elections, it is difficult to predict where they will perform well. Moreover, we just have no idea from recent UK history how well a party like UKIP can be expected to do in the general election compared to, for example, the EP election in 2014. The fact that our estimates put weight on both lagged vote from 2010 and current polling means that the model is skeptical about UKIPs poll numbers, and will remain so until shortly before the election. If UKIP support holds at its current levels through election day and polling begins to indicate that UKIP support is concentrated in certain constituencies rather than inefficiently spread across most constituencies, the forecast may begin to indicate seat gains.
Can someone ask somebody senior at YouGov why they expect turnout (as a % of total population, not just registered voters) to be higher amongst 18 to 24s than over 60s.
I would expect that it should actually be about 50% as high (of total population) and 67% as high (of registered voters).
Which poll is that from? The 12th/13th fieldwork poll has weightings which are almost exactly spot-on, and thereafter an 'implied turnout' of
18-24: 76.4% 25-39: 82.8% 40-59: 89.0% 60+: 94.6%
All absurdly high of course, because people lie - but not in the wrong direction across the age brackets.
Interesting fact: Mexico will overtake Spain this year to become the world's biggest Spanish speaking economy.
Considering that Mexico has well over twice Spain's population and many times its area it isn't that much of an achievement.
Certainly the Spanish-Portugese colonies in the Americas have been less economically successful than the British ones.
Where would action movie film makers be but for Mexico? It provides an endless supply of easily disposable and hard to care for doped up henchmen to be machine gunned and blown up, before the inevitable sociopathic swarthy gang leader gets his. What is really unbelievable is that this is usually at the hands of an actor called Arnold or Bruce. I ask you...
YouGov stuck. But it does get a lot of attention purely due to its frequency.
I expect a move to the Tory of 1-2% off the back of the good coverage today, but no more. If they don't get that, I agree there may be trouble ahead.
I think the recent changes to Yougovs methodology are likely to make any change pretty slight. I am unconvinced at the validity of only looking for switchers that gave an intention online in Jan/Feb:
Hat tip to Mark Senior! I must have missed that when trying to get my cat in.
Yougov is unnaturally static while some other pollsters are up and down like SeanT's moodswings.
Take them all with a hypertensive dose of salt.
Talking of cats. Did anyone else see the No.10 cat arrive during ITV's Tom Bradbry live piece and just sit on the doorstep waiting to be let in? Nobody opened the door. Cat flaps for Downing Street: needs to be in someone's manifesto.
YouGov stuck. But it does get a lot of attention purely due to its frequency.
I expect a move to the Tory of 1-2% off the back of the good coverage today, but no more. If they don't get that, I agree there may be trouble ahead.
I think the recent changes to Yougovs methodology are likely to make any change pretty slight. I am unconvinced at the validity of only looking for switchers that gave an intention online in Jan/Feb:
Hat tip to Mark Senior! I must have missed that when trying to get my cat in.
Yougov is unnaturally static while some other pollsters are up and down like SeanT's moodswings.
Take them all with a hypertensive dose of salt.
I wonder if YouGov are introducing an observer effect? It's human nature to not admit to changing your mind (or indeed, to actually not change your mind because you know you'll be asked about it).
The Express seems to be switching back to good front pages for UKIP after a couple of recent pro-Cameron pieces. Wonder if that's enough to shift a % one way or another?
Agree that the Tories should get a bounce from today, good coverage albeit of some back of the fag packet 'this'll sound good and we'll worry about it afterwards if we win' proposals.
YouGov stuck. But it does get a lot of attention purely due to its frequency.
I expect a move to the Tory of 1-2% off the back of the good coverage today, but no more. If they don't get that, I agree there may be trouble ahead.
I think the recent changes to Yougovs methodology are likely to make any change pretty slight. I am unconvinced at the validity of only looking for switchers that gave an intention online in Jan/Feb:
Hat tip to Mark Senior! I must have missed that when trying to get my cat in.
Yougov is unnaturally static while some other pollsters are up and down like SeanT's moodswings.
Take them all with a hypertensive dose of salt.
Talking of cats. Did anyone else see the No.10 cat arrive during ITV's Tom Bradbry live piece and just sit on the doorstep waiting to be let in? Nobody opened the door. Cat flaps for Downing Street: needs to be in someone's manifesto.
My cat knocks on the window when she wants the door opened, but tonight looked a nice night for hunting methinks. I shall try again later.
The Express seems to be switching back to good front pages for UKIP after a couple of recent pro-Cameron pieces. Wonder if that's enough to shift a % one way or another?
Agree that the Tories should get a bounce from today, good coverage albeit of some back of the fag packet 'this'll sound good and we'll worry about it afterwards if we win' proposals.
The Tories would be having a very good night indeed if all they needed to form a majority was go into coalition with UKIP.
The 101 people who have thus far cast their vote for a Lib Dem - Green coalition are likely to be even more disappointed, though perhaps less disappointed than the one person who is holding out for a Green - DUP administration.
YouGov stuck. But it does get a lot of attention purely due to its frequency.
I expect a move to the Tory of 1-2% off the back of the good coverage today, but no more. If they don't get that, I agree there may be trouble ahead.
I think the recent changes to Yougovs methodology are likely to make any change pretty slight. I am unconvinced at the validity of only looking for switchers that gave an intention online in Jan/Feb:
Hat tip to Mark Senior! I must have missed that when trying to get my cat in.
Yougov is unnaturally static while some other pollsters are up and down like SeanT's moodswings.
Take them all with a hypertensive dose of salt.
I wonder if YouGov are introducing an observer effect? It's human nature to not admit to changing your mind (or indeed, to actually not change your mind because you know you'll be asked about it).
Like the Schrodinger Quantum Lib Dem voter in Motherwell and Wishaw ?
You know they are there, but you can't be sure if they are certain to vote.
If you are sure they are certain to vote, it may not be for the Lib Dems.
The Express seems to be switching back to good front pages for UKIP after a couple of recent pro-Cameron pieces. Wonder if that's enough to shift a % one way or another?
Agree that the Tories should get a bounce from today, good coverage albeit of some back of the fag packet 'this'll sound good and we'll worry about it afterwards if we win' proposals.
The Tories would be having a very good night indeed if all they needed to form a majority was go into coalition with UKIP.
The 101 people who have thus far cast their vote for a Lib Dem - Green coalition are likely to be even more disappointed, though perhaps less disappointed than the one person who is holding out for a Green - DUP administration.
But what I thought was most interesting in the context of a knife-edge is that the (unscientific, yes) poll currently stands at 46% for coalitions involving the Conservatives, and 46% for coalitions involving Labour.
The Express seems to be switching back to good front pages for UKIP after a couple of recent pro-Cameron pieces. Wonder if that's enough to shift a % one way or another?
Agree that the Tories should get a bounce from today, good coverage albeit of some back of the fag packet 'this'll sound good and we'll worry about it afterwards if we win' proposals.
The Tories would be having a very good night indeed if all they needed to form a majority was go into coalition with UKIP.
The 101 people who have thus far cast their vote for a Lib Dem - Green coalition are likely to be even more disappointed, though perhaps less disappointed than the one person who is holding out for a Green - DUP administration.
The Express seems to be switching back to good front pages for UKIP after a couple of recent pro-Cameron pieces. Wonder if that's enough to shift a % one way or another?
Agree that the Tories should get a bounce from today, good coverage albeit of some back of the fag packet 'this'll sound good and we'll worry about it afterwards if we win' proposals.
The Tories would be having a very good night indeed if all they needed to form a majority was go into coalition with UKIP.
The 101 people who have thus far cast their vote for a Lib Dem - Green coalition are likely to be even more disappointed, though perhaps less disappointed than the one person who is holding out for a Green - DUP administration.
I have voted for a UKIP Green coalition (along with 21 others!). I would favour Farage as PM, Bennet as CoE. Farage could not be trusted with the beer fund...
The Express seems to be switching back to good front pages for UKIP after a couple of recent pro-Cameron pieces. Wonder if that's enough to shift a % one way or another?
Agree that the Tories should get a bounce from today, good coverage albeit of some back of the fag packet 'this'll sound good and we'll worry about it afterwards if we win' proposals.
The Tories would be having a very good night indeed if all they needed to form a majority was go into coalition with UKIP.
The 101 people who have thus far cast their vote for a Lib Dem - Green coalition are likely to be even more disappointed, though perhaps less disappointed than the one person who is holding out for a Green - DUP administration.
I have voted for a UKIP Green coalition (along with 21 others!). I would favour Farage as PM, Bennet as CoE. Farage could not be trusted with the beer fund...
Very good fox. I think we could get away with Sturgeon as Defence Secretary. Infact we could do away with the army and just send Sturgeon to sort out any global conflict.
YouGov stuck. But it does get a lot of attention purely due to its frequency.
I expect a move to the Tory of 1-2% off the back of the good coverage today, but no more. If they don't get that, I agree there may be trouble ahead.
I think the recent changes to Yougovs methodology are likely to make any change pretty slight. I am unconvinced at the validity of only looking for switchers that gave an intention online in Jan/Feb:
Hat tip to Mark Senior! I must have missed that when trying to get my cat in.
Yougov is unnaturally static while some other pollsters are up and down like SeanT's moodswings.
Take them all with a hypertensive dose of salt.
I wonder if YouGov are introducing an observer effect? It's human nature to not admit to changing your mind (or indeed, to actually not change your mind because you know you'll be asked about it).
Like the Schrodinger Quantum Lib Dem voter in Motherwell and Wishaw ?
You know they are there, but you can't be sure if they are certain to vote.
If you are sure they are certain to vote, it may not be for the Lib Dems.
I think any more quantum voting on top of quantum economics and my head might indeed implode. I am beginning to wonder if I refuse to watch the telly on polling night then there cannot be a labour victory if I don't observe it. On the other hand if I do that I might call into being the end of the universe as we know it. Is it worth a try - bearing in mind this latter option is kipper policy?
The Express seems to be switching back to good front pages for UKIP after a couple of recent pro-Cameron pieces. Wonder if that's enough to shift a % one way or another?
Agree that the Tories should get a bounce from today, good coverage albeit of some back of the fag packet 'this'll sound good and we'll worry about it afterwards if we win' proposals.
The Tories would be having a very good night indeed if all they needed to form a majority was go into coalition with UKIP.
The 101 people who have thus far cast their vote for a Lib Dem - Green coalition are likely to be even more disappointed, though perhaps less disappointed than the one person who is holding out for a Green - DUP administration.
But what I thought was most interesting in the context of a knife-edge is that the (unscientific, yes) poll currently stands at 46% for coalitions involving the Conservatives, and 46% for coalitions involving Labour.
That was the thing that struck me - the left/right balance very much reflects the polls.
Didn`t Martin Boon of ICM claim that the sample was more Tory than usual?
I could have accepted Con36-Lab 33 but a 6 point advantage seems way off the mean of all polls.
The Scottish Tories were far too high for the sample at any rate, and Labour were too low there - even by Scottish Labour standards. That certainly skewed it a bit...
The England only polling showed a swing to Labour still.
I was surprised to see a statement that ICM weights by demographics and certainty to vote; past voting wasn't mentioned. Is this correct?
Didn`t Martin Boon of ICM claim that the sample was more Tory than usual?
I could have accepted Con36-Lab 33 but a 6 point advantage seems way off the mean of all polls.
The Scottish Tories were far too high for the sample at any rate, and Labour were too low there - even by Scottish Labour standards. That certainly skewed it a bit...
The England only polling showed a swing to Labour still.
I was surprised to see a statement that ICM weights by demographics and certainty to vote; past voting wasn't mentioned. Is this correct?
Didn`t Martin Boon of ICM claim that the sample was more Tory than usual?
I could have accepted Con36-Lab 33 but a 6 point advantage seems way off the mean of all polls.
The Scottish Tories were far too high for the sample at any rate, and Labour were too low there - even by Scottish Labour standards. That certainly skewed it a bit...
The England only polling showed a swing to Labour still.
I was surprised to see a statement that ICM weights by demographics and certainty to vote; past voting wasn't mentioned. Is this correct?
I have false recall on this subject so cannot help.
Didn`t Martin Boon of ICM claim that the sample was more Tory than usual?
I could have accepted Con36-Lab 33 but a 6 point advantage seems way off the mean of all polls.
The Scottish Tories were far too high for the sample at any rate, and Labour were too low there - even by Scottish Labour standards. That certainly skewed it a bit...
The England only polling showed a swing to Labour still.
I was surprised to see a statement that ICM weights by demographics and certainty to vote; past voting wasn't mentioned. Is this correct?
Nick if I['m remembering correctly we were going to meet up the Saturday evening after you'd done canvassing in a "Strong Labour pub"
A boring technical question that maybe @NickPalmer can answer:
How do the parties decide on their manifesto launches, in a way that each gets a day in the sun? Is there a gentleman's agreement where they settle on who gets to go when? Or does one major party simply announce their date first, then everyone else shuffle theirs dates around the ones announced so far to ensure they don't get drowned out on the Grid? (As the Greens seem to have managed to do with their mistimed clash.)
I know with the party conferences there is agreement not to "shout over" a rival's conference by hogging the limelight with a new policy announcement, for instance, and I presume the way that conference dates are kept separate between parties is a side-feature of that. Does a similar rule apply to manifesto launches?
(As the Greens seem to have managed to do with their mistimed clash.)
I'd assumed that was intentional, to allow them to be mentioned, even if offhandly, in the same breath as the Tory manifesto, and elsewhere on the page the same day for online reports, to try and make the argument they are the genuine opposition to the Conservatives.
Mirror can't even muster a "Tory baby eating scum launch manifesto that will take us back to the dark ages" headline. Most disappointing, must do better.
The abuse is totally out of order.
I suspect what Top Gear fans want is someone similar to Jeremy Clarkson. Not in behaviour, but someone who will take risks, make controversial jokes, stimulate banter and make it work with May and Hammond. Keep it an exciting and edgy show.
Sue Perkins and Dermot O'Leary? Standard left-wing BBC comedy fodder. The executives will love them, but the fans won't.
Top Gear would die.
Topgear needs a real petrolhead; not some presenter from elsewhere. Who had heard of Clarkson, Hammond and May before Topgear?
It is typical of the media to believe the star makes the show, when really it is the show that made the star. Get some proper driver or motor journalist in!
I nominate Perry Macarthy- the Black Stig!
According to Sun on Sunday Philip Glenister (Ashes to Ashes, The Love of Cars) is in the frame
Thks old_labour. If anyone spots any mistakes, let me know.
I would like to add my thanks Andy for the time you must of put in to make this great resource. One thing though, there are no majorities for the constituencies after Suffolk West.
Didn`t Martin Boon of ICM claim that the sample was more Tory than usual?
I could have accepted Con36-Lab 33 but a 6 point advantage seems way off the mean of all polls.
The Scottish Tories were far too high for the sample at any rate, and Labour were too low there - even by Scottish Labour standards. That certainly skewed it a bit...
The England only polling showed a swing to Labour still.
I was surprised to see a statement that ICM weights by demographics and certainty to vote; past voting wasn't mentioned. Is this correct?
Nick if I['m remembering correctly we were going to meet up the Saturday evening after you'd done canvassing in a "Strong Labour pub"
Didn`t Martin Boon of ICM claim that the sample was more Tory than usual?
I could have accepted Con36-Lab 33 but a 6 point advantage seems way off the mean of all polls.
The Scottish Tories were far too high for the sample at any rate, and Labour were too low there - even by Scottish Labour standards. That certainly skewed it a bit...
The England only polling showed a swing to Labour still.
I was surprised to see a statement that ICM weights by demographics and certainty to vote; past voting wasn't mentioned. Is this correct?
Nick if I['m remembering correctly we were going to meet up the Saturday evening after you'd done canvassing in a "Strong Labour pub"
Didn`t Martin Boon of ICM claim that the sample was more Tory than usual?
I could have accepted Con36-Lab 33 but a 6 point advantage seems way off the mean of all polls.
The Scottish Tories were far too high for the sample at any rate, and Labour were too low there - even by Scottish Labour standards. That certainly skewed it a bit...
The England only polling showed a swing to Labour still.
I was surprised to see a statement that ICM weights by demographics and certainty to vote; past voting wasn't mentioned. Is this correct?
Nick if I['m remembering correctly we were going to meet up the Saturday evening after you'd done canvassing in a "Strong Labour pub"
Didn`t Martin Boon of ICM claim that the sample was more Tory than usual?
I could have accepted Con36-Lab 33 but a 6 point advantage seems way off the mean of all polls.
The Scottish Tories were far too high for the sample at any rate, and Labour were too low there - even by Scottish Labour standards. That certainly skewed it a bit...
The England only polling showed a swing to Labour still.
I was surprised to see a statement that ICM weights by demographics and certainty to vote; past voting wasn't mentioned. Is this correct?
Nick if I['m remembering correctly we were going to meet up the Saturday evening after you'd done canvassing in a "Strong Labour pub"
Ross, Skye and Lochaber Edinburgh North and Leith Edinburgh South Glasgow South-West Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale and Tweeddale Berwickshire, Roxburgh and Selkirk East Renfrewshire
And two slightly easier ones:
East Dunbartonshire Fife North-East
Thanks AndyJS for a wonderful resource.
Pulpstar - would love to see those seats polled - particularly RSL, BRS and East Renfrewshire.
Not convinced by the Ashcroft Crewe & Nantwich poll earlier today - with C&N as the following makes clear, you've got to be very careful with your sample given red Crewe and blue rest of the seat. We have no way of knowing where the Ashcroft sample was drawn from, but its stakly divided nature makes it more suspect to faulty sampling, unlike other marginals which are far more uniform in nature. I still think Timpson will hang on narrowly there:
Ross Skye Lochaber and East Renrewshire have been done once.
Berwickshire Roxburgh Selkirk is one of the toughest seats in Scotland for the SNP and could be Tories ahead.
Kennedy smearing his Nat opponent, I think he is gone. I have a bet on him losing. Murphy obviously hoping for a Tory tactical vote now. Roxburgh, interesting one. It is one I didn't bet on when it came to constituency votes. Edinburgh South is Murray, utterly useless MP who was startled he won it last time. I didn't bet on that one. I have bets on Edin North and Glasgow SW going SNP., Fife NE as well since Ming the Merciless has gone. I wouldn't bet against Mundell though in Clydesdale. If he starts squealing for tactical votes I might change my mind.
A boring technical question that maybe @NickPalmer can answer:
How do the parties decide on their manifesto launches, in a way that each gets a day in the sun? Is there a gentleman's agreement where they settle on who gets to go when? Or does one major party simply announce their date first, then everyone else shuffle theirs dates around the ones announced so far to ensure they don't get drowned out on the Grid? (As the Greens seem to have managed to do with their mistimed clash.)
I know with the party conferences there is agreement not to "shout over" a rival's conference by hogging the limelight with a new policy announcement, for instance, and I presume the way that conference dates are kept separate between parties is a side-feature of that. Does a similar rule apply to manifesto launches?
I think it was one of the things that helped turn the westminster village type of people against Brown. His trip to Iraq to announce our withdrawal all done as the Conservative conference began in 2007.
It just really wasnt cricket, especially when it looked like we were on the verge of him calling a general election. I think the narrative fell away from him that weekend.
Ross, Skye and Lochaber Edinburgh North and Leith Edinburgh South Glasgow South-West Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale and Tweeddale Berwickshire, Roxburgh and Selkirk East Renfrewshire
And two slightly easier ones:
East Dunbartonshire Fife North-East
Thanks AndyJS for a wonderful resource.
Pulpstar - would love to see those seats polled - particularly RSL, BRS and East Renfrewshire.
Not convinced by the Ashcroft Crewe & Nantwich poll earlier today - with C&N as the following makes clear, you've got to be very careful with your sample given red Crewe and blue rest of the seat. We have no way of knowing where the Ashcroft sample was drawn from, but its stakly divided nature makes it more suspect to faulty sampling, unlike other marginals which are far more uniform in nature. I still think Timpson will hang on narrowly there:
Ross Skye Lochaber and East Renrewshire have been done once.
Berwickshire Roxburgh Selkirk is one of the toughest seats in Scotland for the SNP and could be Tories ahead.
Kennedy smearing his Nat opponent, I think he is gone. I have a bet on him losing. Murphy obviously hoping for a Tory tactical vote now. Roxburgh, interesting one. It is one I didn't bet on when it came to constituency votes. Edinburgh South is Murray, utterly useless MP who was startled he won it last time. I didn't bet on that one. I have bets on Edin North and Glasgow SW going SNP., Fife NE as well since Ming the Merciless has gone. I wouldn't bet against Mundell though in Clydesdale. If he starts squealing for tactical votes I might change my mind.
I've backed both SNP and Conservatives in DCT at a (Small) profit. Don't think Labour will win there
North Leith is a constituency I've gone on on at various prices. Have some 5-2 in Edi South but only small stakes, I still think it is one of the toughest for the SNP.
Comments
It is typical of the media to believe the star makes the show, when really it is the show that made the star. Get some proper driver or motor journalist in!
I nominate Perry Macarthy- the Black Stig!
I expect a move to the Tory of 1-2% off the back of the good coverage today, but no more. If they don't get that, I agree there may be trouble ahead.
In one sense I could almost wish we don't have a referendum, as I am bloody sick of reading reports of how the rest of Europe is getting fed up of seeing us drag our feet and how they are 'losing patience' with us, as though the lack of enthusiasm of the British public is something our leaders are supposed to just ignore (which in fairness they have tried, but is becoming increasingly difficult) for the sake of not ruining everyone elses good time.
I could have accepted Con36-Lab 33 but a 6 point advantage seems way off the mean of all polls.
Labour is to launch a women’s manifesto tomorrow
http://www.theguardian.com/politics/live/2015/apr/14/election-2015-live-conservative-manifesto-david-cameron-right-to-buy
Right, must dash. Goodnight.
Sun Politics @SunPolitics 9m9 minutes ago
Tories on track to win series of key 'marginal' seats despite Labour pressure: http://sunpl.us/601640po
The England only polling showed a swing to Labour still.
Tom Copley @tomcopley 3m3 minutes ago
When will private renters get a £100k discount to buy our homes, then?
https://yougov.co.uk/news/2015/04/08/labour-lead-2/
Agree that the Tories should get a bounce from today, good coverage albeit of some back of the fag packet 'this'll sound good and we'll worry about it afterwards if we win' proposals.
Thought this was interesting if utterly unscientific: http://www.moneysavingexpert.com/poll/14-04-2015/which-coalition-would-you-vote-for
Pulpstar - would love to see those seats polled - particularly RSL, BRS and East Renfrewshire.
Not convinced by the Ashcroft Crewe & Nantwich poll earlier today - with C&N as the following makes clear, you've got to be very careful with your sample given red Crewe and blue rest of the seat. We have no way of knowing where the Ashcroft sample was drawn from, but its stakly divided nature makes it more suspect to faulty sampling, unlike other marginals which are far more uniform in nature. I still think Timpson will hang on narrowly there:
http://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/cgi-bin/seatdetails.pl?seat=Crewe and Nantwich
Its possible to score goals but only if the opposition incapacitates themselves first.
Besides as you well know one of the powers the local authority has is to force you to sell your property if it gets in the way of a development. So your suggestion of buying up the land doesn't help.
From the website of Barnsley District Council (as an example - almost every council has the same guidelines)
" The powers could be used to deliver a wide range of schemes, such as new public buildings, housing developments, new road building schemes and alterations to existing highways networks, flood defence works, sewer water or gas pipe schemes and even large scale mixed-use regeneration projects."
Is there a point to producing a poll every day? I bet (no, I guess) that The Sun only kept on the contact for the 4 day(?) a week polls because they thought there would be a second election soon after 2010. The FTPA scuppered them.
As you say - 5 day a week when (if) your methodology is not (may not be) working is still no good. All they are doing is showing how a poll can swing between 3% either way.
Berwickshire Roxburgh Selkirk is one of the toughest seats in Scotland for the SNP and could be Tories ahead.
I would expect that it should actually be about 50% as high (of total population) and 67% as high (of registered voters).
The Tory candidate in BRS on his twitter feed linked to electoralcalculus showing it a close Tory SNP race, Lib Dems can't win here style bar chart - all good stuff. One of the most fascinating seats this election.
Firstly because the developers make claims that the land is no longer floodplain because of the mitigations they have put in - which are usually a load of balls.
And secondly because what regularly happens is that the works developers put in to try and prevent flooding around their homes, even if not completely successful, move the problem up and down stream so that land that was not previously floodplain now gets flooded.
I am afraid the caveat emptor principle cannot apply when you have lived in a house for generations which has never flooded and it then floods because of unsuitable floodplain development downstream.
Though I have taken a differing view on some of the seats.
How many people realise that YouGov are not actually (as you seem to be saying) polling a true representative sample of the British Public. I certainly did not.
UKIPs super secret stealth polling is certainly being kept below the radar. If it is showing the failure of UKIPs 5th column then maybe the intelligence on the capture of 36 is not so unreliable?
I repeat I am glad I am not a betting man.
Edit: If they already have and I didn't notice, I feel really sorry for them.
Yougov is unnaturally static while some other pollsters are up and down like SeanT's moodswings.
Take them all with a hypertensive dose of salt.
I'm not sure the Greens will be so lucky.
'Politics is the art of looking for trouble, finding it everywhere, diagnosing it wrongly, and applying unsuitable remedies'.
Sir Ernest Benn ( 2nd Baronet)
Goodnight !
Certainly the Spanish-Portugese colonies in the Americas have been less economically successful than the British ones.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Yfr14vVqze0
Newsnight Index
www.fivethirtyeight.com
www.electionforecast.co.uk
Are all the same.
http://www.electionforecast.co.uk/#information
NOTE:
How confident are you that UKIP will really do so poorly at converting votes into seats?
Not as confident as the model says we are, for many of the reasons noted above. UKIP performance is uncertain in a way that is very difficult to model. Because UKIP has such a limited record in parliamentary elections, it is difficult to predict where they will perform well. Moreover, we just have no idea from recent UK history how well a party like UKIP can be expected to do in the general election compared to, for example, the EP election in 2014. The fact that our estimates put weight on both lagged vote from 2010 and current polling means that the model is skeptical about UKIPs poll numbers, and will remain so until shortly before the election. If UKIP support holds at its current levels through election day and polling begins to indicate that UKIP support is concentrated in certain constituencies rather than inefficiently spread across most constituencies, the forecast may begin to indicate seat gains.
Sorry! I mean, disappointing poll for the Tories.
18-24: 76.4%
25-39: 82.8%
40-59: 89.0%
60+: 94.6%
All absurdly high of course, because people lie - but not in the wrong direction across the age brackets.
But if I lived in Ilford North, I'd be out canvassing for Wes come rain or hail
On the other hand this poll is really no different to yesterday's or the one before that, and why should it be.
You know they are there, but you can't be sure if they are certain to vote.
If you are sure they are certain to vote, it may not be for the Lib Dems.
On the other hand if I do that I might call into being the end of the universe as we know it. Is it worth a try - bearing in mind this latter option is kipper policy?
Prime Minister - Nicola Sturgeon
Chancellor - George Osborne
Home Secretary - Jim Murphy
Foreign Secretary - Ed Miliband.
@Tissue_Price
@Alanbrooke
@Southam_Observer
(I think some of those 3 at any rate) and perhaps one or two other Midland based posters expressed an interest.
Date was 1st Sat of May I think
How do the parties decide on their manifesto launches, in a way that each gets a day in the sun? Is there a gentleman's agreement where they settle on who gets to go when? Or does one major party simply announce their date first, then everyone else shuffle theirs dates around the ones announced so far to ensure they don't get drowned out on the Grid? (As the Greens seem to have managed to do with their mistimed clash.)
I know with the party conferences there is agreement not to "shout over" a rival's conference by hogging the limelight with a new policy announcement, for instance, and I presume the way that conference dates are kept separate between parties is a side-feature of that. Does a similar rule apply to manifesto launches?
Night all.
According to Sun on Sunday Philip Glenister (Ashes to Ashes, The Love of Cars) is in the frame
One thing though, there are no majorities for the constituencies after Suffolk West.
Coral and SkyBet and Lord Ashcroft and Betfair have made me lock up alot of funds lol.
Misread it. Apologies
It just really wasnt cricket, especially when it looked like we were on the verge of him calling a general election. I think the narrative fell away from him that weekend.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/newstopics/eureferendum/11537057/Juncker-blocks-EU-treaty-negotiations-until-after-2019.html
North Leith is a constituency I've gone on on at various prices. Have some 5-2 in Edi South but only small stakes, I still think it is one of the toughest for the SNP.