09 Feb Lab 35 Con 25 UKIP 20 13 Apr Lab 36 Con 25 UKIP 20 17 Apr Lab 30 UKIP 27 Con 22 11 May Con 27 UKIP 26 Lab 24 14 May Lab 29 Con 26 UKIP 25
Today's ICM pushed through the Euro corrector would give:
CON 36.9 LAB 29.4 UKIP 9.5 LD 7.9
Which from Labour's point of view is disturbingly close to 2010, and would therefore surely lead to a substantial net loss of seats given the churn involved.
And Alistair Cook fails again...seems to be the lot of Gloucestershire cricketers at the moment (the Gidman brothers, the entire Gloucestershire 1st XI, Gloucester born Cook...)
Crikey - how much time does that take to tend? I had a veg patch and gave in. I'm more your flowers and shrubs type - and spent a LOT of time mowing/dragging off cleevers and bindweed.
What are you planting and where in Devon? Born in Plymouth myself, though now stateside. Have just about finished digging my kitchen garden, and about to embark on an epic planting. About 150 yards of beds total. I have lettuces, brussel sprouts, broccoli, spinach, kale, onions, garlic, shallots, and a wide variety of herbs and berries in already. Peas, beans, potatoes up next then the nightshade family and squashes early next month.
Thus far, surprisingly, the ICM poll has had no effect whatsoever on Sporting's GE Seats spread for the Tories which remains unchanged at 281 - 285.
Btw, and I'm whispering this very quietly, right now OGH could close his Con Seats - Lab Seats with Sporting at just 14 seats, thereby containing his losses to a tiny 2 x his unit stake (which wasn't £20 we were told). Personally I'd be tempted to do just that and soon.
OGH isn't a lily livered bettor who changes his position at the hint of a bad poll though.
He closed out his sell SNP at 21 position - maybe not on the strength of one bad poll though
Not buying the SnP on the spreads is my one bet I should have made and didn't.
"But how can the SNP take down 10,000 majorities" I asked myself.
Tories must be heading into overall majority country now. Very depressing, but not unexpected.
I don't believe for a moment you are "very depressed" by a potential Tory win. Cameron with a narrow majority will be little different to Cameron in Coalition (with which you coped). Yes there will be an EU vote but IN will win easily (therefore not triggering another indyref).
All else will continue as now. Mildly competent. Fairly boring. Better than the lefty lunacies of Miliband (as you well know).
Anyway, cheer up. It's just one outlying poll. I still believe (for now) your guy will scrape home, needing SNP support to govern (and that's when we should all start worrying).
A fair point. On a personal level I'll probably do a little better under the Tories and there is the prospect of Labour getting a better leader, which will make them more electable. My hope remains that the Tories can be denied a majority and are restricted to more or less what they have now. That way, some of their more draconian stuff can be prevented.
Maybe the Tory narrative of Ed being in Salmond's/ Sturgeon's pocket is beginning to take hold - these things take time to resonate/ percolate through to the electorate - which is why they were set off early.
Also, of course - ant-nat sentiment in Scotland might be coalescing with the Tories in the rural areas. Maybe the Tories WILL beat the pandas. Scotland for a long time was pretty tory.
Pong's question from the previous thread. It's just a thought, but perhaps the prospect of a lab/SNP coalition is being brought into focus by the recent publicity.
If you trust this poll - as in you trust the ICM methodology - then not much has changed as it's not that different from their February poll.
It's just an illusion of change because of the more frequent polling from the online polls that is anchoring your expectations.
According to UKPR 39 is +3 on Feb. This is not, 'not much has changed'. Allowing for some sort of MOE then on the downside then Feb could have been 34 and this month could be as high as 41. If they were both overstating then it still shows a rise of 3.
The daily polls certainly show a lot of inconsistency, and generate a lot of hystria.
Fantastic poll for the Tories. To think people once got excited about 37%. They must be very happy. If they can build upon it, the election is as good as over.
On the Scottish sub sample, I think that there has been a lot of extracting the urine from the pollster taking place; either that or the folks aren't getting the tactical stop the SNP vote thingy
Tories must be heading into overall majority country now. Very depressing, but not unexpected.
I don't believe for a moment you are "very depressed" by a potential Tory win. Cameron with a narrow majority will be little different to Cameron in Coalition (with which you coped). Yes there will be an EU vote but IN will win easily (therefore not triggering another indyref).
All else will continue as now. Mildly competent. Fairly boring. Better than the lefty lunacies of Miliband (as you well know).
Anyway, cheer up. It's just one outlying poll. I still believe (for now) your guy will scrape home, needing SNP support to govern (and that's when we should all start worrying).
That way, some of their more draconian stuff can be prevented.
Baby eating? Seriously, what do you think they might do that is so awful?
I said a while back that Labour constantly prattling on about how they'll be careful with money, is like an ex who you dumped for being too clingy constantly bombarding you with texts saying how much they've changed and begging to get back together.
It just looks desperate and puts at the front of your mind the exact reasons why you dumped them, rather than reminding them why you liked them in the first place.
Tories must be heading into overall majority country now. Very depressing, but not unexpected.
I don't believe for a moment you are "very depressed" by a potential Tory win. Cameron with a narrow majority will be little different to Cameron in Coalition (with which you coped). Yes there will be an EU vote but IN will win easily (therefore not triggering another indyref).
All else will continue as now. Mildly competent. Fairly boring. Better than the lefty lunacies of Miliband (as you well know).
Anyway, cheer up. It's just one outlying poll. I still believe (for now) your guy will scrape home, needing SNP support to govern (and that's when we should all start worrying).
That way, some of their more draconian stuff can be prevented.
Baby eating? Seriously, what do you think they might do that is so awful?
£60 billion of unexplained cuts over five years. That will inevitably have a major impact on a lot of people - many of whom will be in full time work on low salaries.
I'm generally very sanguine about polls - but this one has had me LOL repeatedly. Whatever the truth - it's just so epically funny to see the shock/awe/outlier/WTF/grief responses.
So if the polls come in like suggested today I'll lose my Ed bets, but win on my sub 250 Labour bets, hose up on the seat positions which are strongly Tory and either win on Con Minority or Majority. I'd imagine Ed would be out the job and Dave would stay in place for the rest of the year too.
Tories must be heading into overall majority country now. Very depressing, but not unexpected.
I don't believe for a moment you are "very depressed" by a potential Tory win. Cameron with a narrow majority will be little different to Cameron in Coalition (with which you coped). Yes there will be an EU vote but IN will win easily (therefore not triggering another indyref).
All else will continue as now. Mildly competent. Fairly boring. Better than the lefty lunacies of Miliband (as you well know).
Anyway, cheer up. It's just one outlying poll. I still believe (for now) your guy will scrape home, needing SNP support to govern (and that's when we should all start worrying).
That way, some of their more draconian stuff can be prevented.
Baby eating? Seriously, what do you think they might do that is so awful?
many of whom will be in full time work on low salaries.
And would be paying less (or no) tax under the Tories.....
Tories must be heading into overall majority country now. Very depressing, but not unexpected.
I don't believe for a moment you are "very depressed" by a potential Tory win. Cameron with a narrow majority will be little different to Cameron in Coalition (with which you coped). Yes there will be an EU vote but IN will win easily (therefore not triggering another indyref).
All else will continue as now. Mildly competent. Fairly boring. Better than the lefty lunacies of Miliband (as you well know).
Anyway, cheer up. It's just one outlying poll. I still believe (for now) your guy will scrape home, needing SNP support to govern (and that's when we should all start worrying).
That way, some of their more draconian stuff can be prevented.
Baby eating? Seriously, what do you think they might do that is so awful?
£60 billion of unexplained cuts over five years. That will inevitably have a major impact on a lot of people - many of whom will be in full time work on low salaries.
But Labour's vague and fluffy cuts as announced this morning are OK?
Good. English cricket needs a root, branch overhaul. In fact, the entire tree needs to be ripped up and replaced.
The county system, isn't just yesterday's news, its the day before yesterday's news. It virtually predates the industrial revolution, FFS.
Smash it to bits. Fewer teams, more pressure, more money.
As much as it is shite to see England struggling again, it really would be very good for the global game of cricket for the West Indies to become a power once more.
Re. phone Vs internet polling, there is definitely merit in internet polling but due to it's cheapness this election is being dominated by internet polling companies, many of them largely untested.
In 2010 we had a good balance of phone and internet polling, we need to get back to that, IMO.
I'm generally very sanguine about polls - but this one has had me LOL repeatedly. Whatever the truth - it's just so epically funny to see the shock/awe/outlier/WTF/grief responses.
We havent had anything anywhere near as funny as the bleating that accompanied those Labour leads a few days ago yet.
Tories must be heading into overall majority country now. Very depressing, but not unexpected.
I don't believe for a moment you are "very depressed" by a potential Tory win. Cameron with a narrow majority will be little different to Cameron in Coalition (with which you coped). Yes there will be an EU vote but IN will win easily (therefore not triggering another indyref).
All else will continue as now. Mildly competent. Fairly boring. Better than the lefty lunacies of Miliband (as you well know).
Anyway, cheer up. It's just one outlying poll. I still believe (for now) your guy will scrape home, needing SNP support to govern (and that's when we should all start worrying).
That way, some of their more draconian stuff can be prevented.
Baby eating? Seriously, what do you think they might do that is so awful?
£60 billion of unexplained cuts over five years. That will inevitably have a major impact on a lot of people - many of whom will be in full time work on low salaries.
But Labour's vague and fluffy cuts as announced this morning are OK.
My natural inclination is for as few cuts as possible. Philosophically I am opposed to the small state the Tories favour because I see the state as a force for good.
Honest question, why might phone polls be "better" than online in the digital age?
More of the population is contactable by phone (landline, mobile) than is on the internet. Also, there has always been some suspicion that UKIP have filled up a lot of the online panels with their activists to skew the results like the SNP did with the IndyRef on Panelbase.
I heard there are 10x as many UKIP supporters on the YouGov panel than LibDem ones.
While I have no doubt that there are more UKIP supporters than LibDem ones, this ratio seems a little high.
Pong's question from the previous thread. It's just a thought, but perhaps the prospect of a lab/SNP coalition is being brought into focus by the recent publicity.
If you trust this poll - as in you trust the ICM methodology - then not much has changed as it's not that different from their February poll.
It's just an illusion of change because of the more frequent polling from the online polls that is anchoring your expectations.
According to UKPR 39 is +3 on Feb. This is not, 'not much has changed'. Allowing for some sort of MOE then on the downside then Feb could have been 34 and this month could be as high as 41. If they were both overstating then it still shows a rise of 3.
The daily polls certainly show a lot of inconsistency, and generate a lot of hystria.
The Conservative share is comfortably within the margin of error of 37% in the last three ICM polls. It does not provide any convincing evidence to overturn the null hypothesis that Conservative support has been stable over the last couple of months.
If you look at the simple average of all the polls on Wikipedia, then you can see that there was a general uplift in the Tory share during February, which then stabilised. The ICM polls are not inconsistent with that.
Tories must be heading into overall majority country now. Very depressing, but not unexpected.
I don't believe for a moment you are "very depressed" by a potential Tory win. Cameron with a narrow majority will be little different to Cameron in Coalition (with which you coped). Yes there will be an EU vote but IN will win easily (therefore not triggering another indyref).
All else will continue as now. Mildly competent. Fairly boring. Better than the lefty lunacies of Miliband (as you well know).
Anyway, cheer up. It's just one outlying poll. I still believe (for now) your guy will scrape home, needing SNP support to govern (and that's when we should all start worrying).
That way, some of their more draconian stuff can be prevented.
Baby eating? Seriously, what do you think they might do that is so awful?
£60 billion of unexplained cuts over five years. That will inevitably have a major impact on a lot of people - many of whom will be in full time work on low salaries.
Nonsense, it's just lefties believing their own bullshit. The country functioned reasonably well at lower levels of expenditure, which included most of the Blair years.
The only major gap all parties face is their refusal to shift more spending to the capital account to improve our crappy infrastructure.
£60 billion of unexplained cuts over five years. That will inevitably have a major impact on a lot of people - many of whom will be in full time work on low salaries.
What on Earth makes you think they will cut that much? In all likelihood they will miss their targets and the actual cuts will be middling. In five years time when the deficit has only halved they will be asking for five more years to finish the job.
Tories must be heading into overall majority country now. Very depressing, but not unexpected.
I don't believe for a moment you are "very depressed" by a potential Tory win. Cameron with a narrow majority will be little different to Cameron in Coalition (with which you coped). Yes there will be an EU vote but IN will win easily (therefore not triggering another indyref).
All else will continue as now. Mildly competent. Fairly boring. Better than the lefty lunacies of Miliband (as you well know).
Anyway, cheer up. It's just one outlying poll. I still believe (for now) your guy will scrape home, needing SNP support to govern (and that's when we should all start worrying).
That way, some of their more draconian stuff can be prevented.
Baby eating? Seriously, what do you think they might do that is so awful?
£60 billion of unexplained cuts over five years. That will inevitably have a major impact on a lot of people - many of whom will be in full time work on low salaries.
But Labour's vague and fluffy cuts as announced this morning are OK.
My natural inclination is for as few cuts as possible. Philosophically I am opposed to the small state the Tories favour because I see the state as a force for good.
Even if it's unaffordable?
Labours plans for cuts could suggest that they're now in favour of a smaller state too.
Its another set of initials that should worry us all. IFS http://www.thetimes.co.uk/tto/news/politics/article4409785.ece ''Miliband’s bid for economic credibility shot down by IFS'' ''a leading economic think-tank called the promises in today’s manifesto so vague that voters would not know what they were voting for'' Labour promise ''only to end the deficit on day to day spending rather than the overall budget, giving Mr Miliband and Ed Balls £30 billion leeway - the current level of investment spending. The lack of a timetable also means that there could be £18 billion of cuts over the next parliament, or nothing at all.'' The IFS said, ''it allows them to say well we would be cutting very little, but also that we would be cutting. But it really makes a big difference, there’s a huge difference between £18bn of cuts over the next three years and no cuts. Literally we would not know what we were voting for if we were going to vote for Labour.”
Never mind punters... its voters who need to brush up on their economics and definitions of deficit. All that you punters have to decide is how naive are the British electorate?
£60 billion of unexplained cuts over five years. That will inevitably have a major impact on a lot of people - many of whom will be in full time work on low salaries.
What on Earth makes you think they will cut that much? In all likelihood they will miss their targets and the actual cuts will be middling. In five years time when the deficit has only halved they will be asking for five more years to finish the job.
it really would be very good for the global game of cricket for the West Indies to become a power once more.
100% agree. There was a big drift to basketball/athletics in the islands apparently, but the IPL is helping to restore cricket amongst the locals with its big bucks.
Tory CCHQ is absolutely hammering the Miliband-in-sturgeon"s sporran meme on Twitter. And I note the Tories sent SIX Salmond-Sturgeon van posters to the labour manifesto launch today.
They would not be spending this time and money on an attack line that had not been relentlessly focus grouped, and shown to work.
It would be helpful if you could be slightly less sharp when cutting your constituency odds. It's no good to me when you cut your odds within seconds of a poll coming out.
Tories must be heading into overall majority country now. Very depressing, but not unexpected.
I don't believe for a moment you are "very depressed" by a potential Tory win. Cameron with a narrow majority will be little different to Cameron in Coalition (with which you coped). Yes there will be an EU vote but IN will win easily (therefore not triggering another indyref).
All else will continue as now. Mildly competent. Fairly boring. Better than the lefty lunacies of Miliband (as you well know).
Anyway, cheer up. It's just one outlying poll. I still believe (for now) your guy will scrape home, needing SNP support to govern (and that's when we should all start worrying).
That way, some of their more draconian stuff can be prevented.
Baby eating? Seriously, what do you think they might do that is so awful?
£60 billion of unexplained cuts over five years. That will inevitably have a major impact on a lot of people - many of whom will be in full time work on low salaries.
Nonsense, it's just lefties believing their own bullshit. The country functioned reasonably well at lower levels of expenditure, which included most of the Blair years.
The only major gap all parties face is their refusal to shift more spending to the capital account to improve our crappy infrastructure.
I'd like the country to function more than reasonably well and my memory of those times is different to yours. That said, if the Tories make £60 billion of cuts without it having a negative impact on the working poor and other vulnerable groups I will hold my hand up and say I was wrong.
Tories must be heading into overall majority country now. Very depressing, but not unexpected.
I don't believe for a moment you are "very depressed" by a potential Tory win. Cameron with a narrow majority will be little different to Cameron in Coalition (with which you coped). Yes there will be an EU vote but IN will win easily (therefore not triggering another indyref).
All else will continue as now. Mildly competent. Fairly boring. Better than the lefty lunacies of Miliband (as you well know).
Anyway, cheer up. It's just one outlying poll. I still believe (for now) your guy will scrape home, needing SNP support to govern (and that's when we should all start worrying).
That way, some of their more draconian stuff can be prevented.
Baby eating? Seriously, what do you think they might do that is so awful?
£60 billion of unexplained cuts over five years. That will inevitably have a major impact on a lot of people - many of whom will be in full time work on low salaries.
But Labour's vague and fluffy cuts as announced this morning are OK.
My natural inclination is for as few cuts as possible. Philosophically I am opposed to the small state the Tories favour because I see the state as a force for good.
Tories must be heading into overall majority country now. Very depressing, but not unexpected.
I don't believe for a moment you are "very depressed" by a potential Tory win. Cameron with a narrow majority will be little different to Cameron in Coalition (with which you coped). Yes there will be an EU vote but IN will win easily (therefore not triggering another indyref).
All else will continue as now. Mildly competent. Fairly boring. Better than the lefty lunacies of Miliband (as you well know).
Anyway, cheer up. It's just one outlying poll. I still believe (for now) your guy will scrape home, needing SNP support to govern (and that's when we should all start worrying).
That way, some of their more draconian stuff can be prevented.
Baby eating? Seriously, what do you think they might do that is so awful?
£60 billion of unexplained cuts over five years. That will inevitably have a major impact on a lot of people - many of whom will be in full time work on low salaries.
But Labour's vague and fluffy cuts as announced this morning are OK.
My natural inclination is for as few cuts as possible.
I'm guessing you don't remotely run your business like that?
I presume all spending has to be justified and spending 'because we did it last year' wouldn't get very far?
I've always seen the SNPers as a curiosity who were a force in a place far from me. Then Sindy happened and they got a whole lot closer to my life.
Now, the chances of HMG being held hostage to them is a whole new game and frankly I don't like the notion of an entire region of the UK being in sole party control and with it's own strong arm government.
Before now, Labour could rule Scotland but still had a vested interest in ROTUK, that's gone if the polls are true. I'm very uncomfortable at the notion of Labour being held hostage by the SNP.
I can't be the only person who's noticed this. It makes Kippers seems irrelevant bleating about the EU.
Maybe the Tory narrative of Ed being in Salmond's/ Sturgeon's pocket is beginning to take hold - these things take time to resonate/ percolate through to the electorate - which is why they were set off early.
Also, of course - ant-nat sentiment in Scotland might be coalescing with the Tories in the rural areas. Maybe the Tories WILL beat the pandas. Scotland for a long time was pretty tory.
Agreed, been saying for weeks now that SNP surge/offer of a deal with Labour has been toxic for Ukip as a protest vote down South. Interesting that Greens also up in ICM poll not long after @Danny565 said: "And England too. I'm closer than I've ever been before to throwing the Greens a "f**k it" vote."
Pong's question from the previous thread. It's just a thought, but perhaps the prospect of a lab/SNP coalition is being brought into focus by the recent publicity.
Tories must be heading into overall majority country now. Very depressing, but not unexpected.
I don't believe for a moment you are "very depressed" by a potential Tory win. Cameron with a narrow majority will be little different to Cameron in Coalition (with which you coped). Yes there will be an EU vote but IN will win easily (therefore not triggering another indyref).
All else will continue as now. Mildly competent. Fairly boring. Better than the lefty lunacies of Miliband (as you well know).
Anyway, cheer up. It's just one outlying poll. I still believe (for now) your guy will scrape home, needing SNP support to govern (and that's when we should all start worrying).
That way, some of their more draconian stuff can be prevented.
Baby eating? Seriously, what do you think they might do that is so awful?
£60 billion of unexplained cuts over five years. That will inevitably have a major impact on a lot of people - many of whom will be in full time work on low salaries.
But Labour's vague and fluffy cuts as announced this morning are OK.
My natural inclination is for as few cuts as possible. Philosophically I am opposed to the small state the Tories favour because I see the state as a force for good.
Rotherham.
My life. My wife's life. The lives of everyone I know from the background I had - and a few more besides. Heck, your life even!
Its another set of initials that should worry us all. IFS http://www.thetimes.co.uk/tto/news/politics/article4409785.ece ''Miliband’s bid for economic credibility shot down by IFS'' ''a leading economic think-tank called the promises in today’s manifesto so vague that voters would not know what they were voting for'' Labour promise ''only to end the deficit on day to day spending rather than the overall budget, giving Mr Miliband and Ed Balls £30 billion leeway - the current level of investment spending. The lack of a timetable also means that there could be £18 billion of cuts over the next parliament, or nothing at all.'' The IFS said, ''it allows them to say well we would be cutting very little, but also that we would be cutting. But it really makes a big difference, there’s a huge difference between £18bn of cuts over the next three years and no cuts. Literally we would not know what we were voting for if we were going to vote for Labour.”
Never mind punters... its voters who need to brush up on their economics and definitions of deficit. All that you punters have to decide is how naive are the British electorate?
Indeed. I would not hold my breath as far as the majority of the electorate buffing up on economics, deficits and debt. But I am also not sure that they need to. Many people understand things intuitively without having explicit knowledge. They can tell that things don't add up without having to do the sums. That said, those who are inclined to vote Labour will willingly suspend disbelief on items that don't chime with their predispositions. So the real question is how far Labour core are willing to suspend disbelief.
That gets my Stalker Post Of The Day - brilliant. We've all had one like that. Fortunately, mine was a long time ago and met my new other half who was also a brick shithouse.
I said a while back that Labour constantly prattling on about how they'll be careful with money, is like an ex who you dumped for being too clingy constantly bombarding you with texts saying how much they've changed and begging to get back together.
It just looks desperate and puts at the front of your mind the exact reasons why you dumped them, rather than reminding them why you liked them in the first place.
@jameschappers: .@nicolasturgeon: 'Jim Murphy's false claims in TV debates have been rubbished by his own party bosses... who have hung him out to dry'
As someone else said, Jim was Chuka'd under the bus earlier...
Tories must be heading into overall majority country now. Very depressing, but not unexpected.
I don't believe for a moment you are "very depressed" by a potential Tory win. Cameron with a narrow majority will be little different to Cameron in Coalition (with which you coped). Yes there will be an EU vote but IN will win easily (therefore not triggering another indyref).
All else will continue as now. Mildly competent. Fairly boring. Better than the lefty lunacies of Miliband (as you well know).
Anyway, cheer up. It's just one outlying poll. I still believe (for now) your guy will scrape home, needing SNP support to govern (and that's when we should all start worrying).
That way, some of their more draconian stuff can be prevented.
Baby eating? Seriously, what do you think they might do that is so awful?
£60 billion of unexplained cuts over five years. That will inevitably have a major impact on a lot of people - many of whom will be in full time work on low salaries.
But Labour's vague and fluffy cuts as announced this morning are OK.
My natural inclination is for as few cuts as possible.
I'm guessing you don't remotely run your business like that?
I presume all spending has to be justified and spending 'because we did it last year' wouldn't get very far?
Why not the country?
Our business is not the country. We get to choose who works for us. But our general philosophy is certainly to invest rather than to cut. And we pay all our staff a living wage.
In the Ashcroft Poll Labour are not far behind the Tories in losing 2010 voters to UKIP - in line with Patrick's musing about where UKIP picks up support being potentially very important.
The Labour position is rescued by a much larger advantage among 2010 Lib Dems than recently in Ashcroft polls.
On UNS and separate Scotland UNS make this Tories 321,Lab 247,LD 11 SNP 49 .Tories just short of overall majority.
With Labour on 33, how do they pick up scores of seats in England to recover their losses in Scotland and to get largest party? Does anyone have a theory?
So, again, YouGov weighted numbers assume turnout (as % of population, not just those registered) amongst 18 to 24s (7 year range) will be higher than amongst over 60s (21 year range; average life expectancy is 81).
Tories must be heading into overall majority country now. Very depressing, but not unexpected.
I don't believe for a moment you are "very depressed" by a potential Tory win. Cameron with a narrow majority will be little different to Cameron in Coalition (with which you coped). Yes there will be an EU vote but IN will win easily (therefore not triggering another indyref).
All else will continue as now. Mildly competent. Fairly boring. Better than the lefty lunacies of Miliband (as you well know).
Anyway, cheer up. It's just one outlying poll. I still believe (for now) your guy will scrape home, needing SNP support to govern (and that's when we should all start worrying).
That way, some of their more draconian stuff can be prevented.
Baby eating? Seriously, what do you think they might do that is so awful?
£60 billion of unexplained cuts over five years. That will inevitably have a major impact on a lot of people - many of whom will be in full time work on low salaries.
But Labour's vague and fluffy cuts as announced this morning are OK.
My natural inclination is for as few cuts as possible. Philosophically I am opposed to the small state the Tories favour because I see the state as a force for good.
Rotherham.
My life. My wife's life. The lives of everyone I know from the background I had - and a few more besides. Heck, your life even!
Children excepted, most people I know have managed to survive from a time when the state was smaller.
I guess they were just lucky to have beaten the odds. And not lived in Stafford.
Tories must be heading into overall majority country now. Very depressing, but not unexpected.
I don't believe for a moment you are "very depressed" by a potential Tory win. Cameron with a narrow majority will be little different to Cameron in Coalition (with which you coped). Yes there will be an EU vote but IN will win easily (therefore not triggering another indyref).
All else will continue as now. Mildly competent. Fairly boring. Better than the lefty lunacies of Miliband (as you well know).
Anyway, cheer up. It's just one outlying poll. I still believe (for now) your guy will scrape home, needing SNP support to govern (and that's when we should all start worrying).
That way, some of their more draconian stuff can be prevented.
Baby eating? Seriously, what do you think they might do that is so awful?
£60 billion of unexplained cuts over five years. That will inevitably have a major impact on a lot of people - many of whom will be in full time work on low salaries.
That's it? Reducing expenditure by £60bn over 5 years is the baby eating that makes you fear a Conservative government? Really? Come on Mr. Observer there must be more to it than that. Sixty billion over five years is less than 2% of total expenditure, any manager worth their name could find that sort of saving without breaking a sweat.
Both suggest Scottish Labour Meltdown, but there are slim pickings for the Conservatives there so lets focus on England. I'll trust the weightings both Ashcroft and ICM have made, and will assume they are compatible 9We don't know that for sure but it is a best guess)
Marco Rubio has an announcement scheduled at 6pm in Miami, with a 1 hour TV interview at 10pm, but reports are already coming in that he has told his financial backers in a conference call that he is running.
Meanwhile, Hillary Clinton is driving in a bus from NYC to Des Moines, IA, where she will arrive at some time today for her first event tomorow. There is some conjecture that the bus has a Scooby Doo decor. In these days of social media being everywhere, there is no picture of the bus, which is curious. The only picture we've seen is of Hillary meeting folks at a PA truck stop. You would think a bus whistle stop tour would be a great way to get publicity, but apparently not.
Comments
"The pollsters who can't be bothered" etc...
"But how can the SNP take down 10,000 majorities" I asked myself.
Forget 10k majoritis, 15 and 18k ones will fall !
He didn;t get where he is today by changing his position at the hint of a bad poll
Lord A always does.
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/6-labour-manifesto-policies-that-arent-quite-what-they-seem-10173019.html
Also, of course - ant-nat sentiment in Scotland might be coalescing with the Tories in the rural areas. Maybe the Tories WILL beat the pandas. Scotland for a long time was pretty tory.
Allowing for some sort of MOE then on the downside then Feb could have been 34 and this month could be as high as 41. If they were both overstating then it still shows a rise of 3.
The daily polls certainly show a lot of inconsistency, and generate a lot of hystria.
Wonder if ashcroft will restore some labour cheer
It just looks desperate and puts at the front of your mind the exact reasons why you dumped them, rather than reminding them why you liked them in the first place.
Totally unable to access any Betfair page.
Good. English cricket needs a root, branch overhaul. In fact, the entire tree needs to be ripped up and replaced.
The county system, isn't just yesterday's news, its the day before yesterday's news. It virtually predates the industrial revolution, FFS.
Smash it to bits. Fewer teams, more pressure, more money.
How many polls does it take to shift the odds on a Labour or Tory majority? (which are currently 30 and 8 respectively).
I THINKhope I'd be fine...
Would have thought they could manage to put up a page saying service unavailable. Otherwise I have no idea if something is wrong with my computer.
In 2010 we had a good balance of phone and internet polling, we need to get back to that, IMO.
https://twitter.com/tnewtondunn/status/587629539624378368
While I have no doubt that there are more UKIP supporters than LibDem ones, this ratio seems a little high.
If you look at the simple average of all the polls on Wikipedia, then you can see that there was a general uplift in the Tory share during February, which then stabilised. The ICM polls are not inconsistent with that.
The only major gap all parties face is their refusal to shift more spending to the capital account to improve our crappy infrastructure.
Labours plans for cuts could suggest that they're now in favour of a smaller state too.
Would be nice if The Sunday Sun would start doing something with ICM...
IFS
http://www.thetimes.co.uk/tto/news/politics/article4409785.ece
''Miliband’s bid for economic credibility shot down by IFS''
''a leading economic think-tank called the promises in today’s manifesto so vague that voters would not know what they were voting for''
Labour promise ''only to end the deficit on day to day spending rather than the overall budget, giving Mr Miliband and Ed Balls £30 billion leeway - the current level of investment spending. The lack of a timetable also means that there could be £18 billion of cuts over the next parliament, or nothing at all.''
The IFS said, ''it allows them to say well we would be cutting very little, but also that we would be cutting. But it really makes a big difference, there’s a huge difference between £18bn of cuts over the next three years and no cuts. Literally we would not know what we were voting for if we were going to vote for Labour.”
Never mind punters... its voters who need to brush up on their economics and definitions of deficit. All that you punters have to decide is how naive are the British electorate?
That said, GOOOOOOOOLD STANDARD.
And Ashcroft = LOL whatever he says.
Con 33 (-3) Lab 33 (-1) LD 9 (+3) UKIP 13 (+3) Greens 6 (-1)
Labour on 33% with every poll today, and not leading in any of the three polls published today
100% agree. There was a big drift to basketball/athletics in the islands apparently, but the IPL is helping to restore cricket amongst the locals with its big bucks.
It would be helpful if you could be slightly less sharp when cutting your constituency odds. It's no good to me when you cut your odds within seconds of a poll coming out.
lots of love,
Pong
435 Nuneaton 01:00
Miliband needs to take this, if he doesn't - it's game over for his potential premiership. Good pointer for the Midlands.
487 Rutherglen & Hamilton West 02:00
345 Kirkcaldy & Cowdenbeath 02:00
269 Glenrothes 02:00
We'll broadly know SLAB's fate from these three.
38 Battersea 02:00
I expect CON Hold but will be instructive for London. If Labour are close here, could be a good night in the capital for them.
134 Castle Point 02:00
Earliest UKIP pointer
250 Fife North East 02:00
Scottish yellow peril pointer.
There sure is a crisis in the Tory campaign.....
I presume all spending has to be justified and spending 'because we did it last year' wouldn't get very far?
Why not the country?
Are you lot seriously suggesting that the tories will win? Good grief...
But which is better? There's only 1 way to find out.............FIIIIIGGGGGGGGGHHHHHHHHTTTT
Now, the chances of HMG being held hostage to them is a whole new game and frankly I don't like the notion of an entire region of the UK being in sole party control and with it's own strong arm government.
Before now, Labour could rule Scotland but still had a vested interest in ROTUK, that's gone if the polls are true. I'm very uncomfortable at the notion of Labour being held hostage by the SNP.
I can't be the only person who's noticed this. It makes Kippers seems irrelevant bleating about the EU.
Unrealistic to think things have moved much - but today's 3 polls taken together have to be encouraging for Con.
I'm afraid it does look too close to call.
Howdee, stranger.....
As someone else said, Jim was Chuka'd under the bus earlier...
UKIP can't be on both 13% & 7% at the same time.
You didn't pick a good day though.
The Labour position is rescued by a much larger advantage among 2010 Lib Dems than recently in Ashcroft polls.
Labour - the party of austerity.
Tories - the party of the hard-pressed working man, battling the cost of living crisis.
Tories - the party of what it takes to fund the NHS
Labour - you can't possibly spend that much.....
Isn't shoe spending ring fenced?
Looking at last night's YouGov (Lab 3% lead):
18 to 24s - unweighted 100, weighted 204
60+ - unweighted 593, weighted 491
So, again, YouGov weighted numbers assume turnout (as % of population, not just those registered) amongst 18 to 24s (7 year range) will be higher than amongst over 60s (21 year range; average life expectancy is 81).
As I posted a few days ago, this cannot be right.
It's just that his fieldwork tends to be pretty historical rather than contemporaneous.
I guess they were just lucky to have beaten the odds. And not lived in Stafford.
Or the other way round. But 6% Tory lead says not....
Con 33%. UKIP 13% gives Con 255, Lab 284, LD 33
Con 36%, UKIP 10% gives Con 289, Lab 260. LD 23
- according to my switching model.
Both suggest Scottish Labour Meltdown, but there are slim pickings for the Conservatives there so lets focus on England. I'll trust the weightings both Ashcroft and ICM have made, and will assume they are compatible 9We don't know that for sure but it is a best guess)
Ashcroft
Tory 155
Labour 163
ICM
Tory 202
Labour 172
Con 357
Labour 335
Base: 491+451 = 942
36% Labour vs 38% Conservative in England
Meanwhile, Hillary Clinton is driving in a bus from NYC to Des Moines, IA, where she will arrive at some time today for her first event tomorow. There is some conjecture that the bus has a Scooby Doo decor. In these days of social media being everywhere, there is no picture of the bus, which is curious. The only picture we've seen is of Hillary meeting folks at a PA truck stop. You would think a bus whistle stop tour would be a great way to get publicity, but apparently not.
A weird morning.