politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » ICM 6% CON lead sets the election alight

System

politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » ICM 6% CON lead sets the election alight

ICM's CON 6% lead will bring LAB down to earth pic.twitter.com/DmRe2JAMmF

Read the full story here

TheScreamingEagles

Outlier.

Anorak

TheScreamingEagles said:

Outlier.

Shhh. Just enjoy it while it lasts.

Tissue_Price

May2015, the "nonpartisan" forecaster, is looking to unskew this poll:

https://twitter.com/May2015NS/status/587616065053663233

Philip_Thompson

There's comments that this is probably an outlier (and it might be) but the changes on the last poll are within the margin of error aren't they? Is this now three ICM outliers in a row?

taffys

What has changed to give this poll lead?

Pong's question from the previous thread. It's just a thought, but perhaps the prospect of a lab/SNP coalition is being brought into focus by the recent publicity.

[Deleted User]

A gap of Tories 6 ahead vs 6 behind is just too wide. Someone's badly wrong. FWIW I think also the UKIP numbers depend critically on WHERE the support is coming from geographically. Labour have collapsed in Scotland as the Scots have realised it is the Islington Guardianista party for welfare immigrants (so to speak) and has utterly abandoned the WWC. UKIP is really a WWC party for the non-PC (left and right) - and may in the long run be more of a threat to Labour. If UKIP growth has really been in the North and retreat in the South then Labour are very fucked. If the UKIP numbers remain mainly in Tory seats and only very minimally eating into Labour WWC votes up north then Dave is in deep doodoo. I'm hoping the ex-Tory kippers are getting scared at the prospect of PM Miliband and holding their noses to vote blue.

Tissue_Price

taffys said:

What has changed to give this poll lead?

Pong's question from the previous thread. It's just a thought, but perhaps the prospect of a lab/SNP coalition is being brought into focus by the recent publicity.

The "negative" focus on Ed Miliband (which voters of course "hate") may have helped.

Sean_F

I suspect it is on outlier, but the weekend's polls, putting the Conservatives on 33%, 33%, 33%, 34%, 36%, and 39% are a marked improvement on last week.

MaxPB

FPT:

SeanT said:

I'm calling this a rogue poll (even tho I like it - so I'm not breaking the Golden Rule), however as it is ICM we can't just junk it.

So. It suggests to me an actual Tory lead of 2-3%. Cameron can still win this.

The last time I decided that an ICM poll was an outlier was when it showed the Cons on 36 with a 4 point lead a couple of months ago, in the end all of the other polls moved in line with that picture. I don't want to rule this poll as an outlier too quickly.

I also don't see evidence of a high Tory sample, the 2010 vote shares are pretty much in line with the result. The Scotland subsample looks very strange though.

TGOHF

Panelbase vs ICM

12% lead difference.

Itwasrigged

BBC will be having kittens.

CarlottaVance

Oh well - the lead will probably have evaporated (if it is there at all) in time for the Tory manifesto launch tomorrow!

AlastairMeeks

I'm less interested in whether the poll is an outlier than in whether ICM's methods this time around are sound. This is their third poll in a row with the Conservatives at 36% or more, so we can take it that's a consequence of methodology. They also find UKIP to be far lower than most pollsters: ditto.

So the question is not so much whether ICM have an outlier but are their methods right? And that, sadly, is unknowable until 8 May.

MaxPB

Tissue_Price said:

May2015, the "nonpartisan" forecaster, is looking to unskew this poll:

https://twitter.com/May2015NS/status/587616065053663233

That twitter is probably run by a Labour supporter trying to paint a false narrative. A lot of social media is lefties dressed up as centrists.

Grandiose

England 1 for 1.

Business as usual there at least.

SMukesh

Easter's over then!:-)

Quincel

After Panelbase came out we had a raft of polls from Comres, YG, Populus, etc showing no signs of a radical shift. I predict we will have the same after this ICM poll. If, and only if, that does not happen will this become worrying for Labour.

As has been futilely pointed out on here before, ICM does not actually have a superior track record to most other pollsters over the past few years. I suspect after the election we will see these as outliers on both sides. I wouldn't be surprised if the final ICM before election day was much closer to the consensus so these are forgotten in the election post-mortem. Time will tell, however.

Philip_Thompson

antifrank said:

I'm less interested in whether the poll is an outlier than in whether ICM's methods this time around are sound. This is their third poll in a row with the Conservatives at 36% or more, so we can take it that's a consequence of methodology. They also find UKIP to be far lower than most pollsters: ditto.

So the question is not so much whether ICM have an outlier but are their methods right? And that, sadly, is unknowable until 8 May.

I think the question as always is who do you trust more? ICM, or Panelbase or someone in-between?

Purseybear

taffys said:

What has changed to give this poll lead?

Not so sure this is an outlier. Said all last week we need to wait for post-easter hols & here we go. Phone polling better than online.

Could be IHT, could be feel-good, could be Cameron, could be economy, could be weather or could be a mahoossive outlier.

Mr Smithsons right though. Its set the election alight. At long last. I reckon coalition talk bores everyone out there. Talk of a proper outright tory win really gets the touch paper lit, for good & bad.

Betfair has crashed ;-)

CarlottaVance

Anthony Wells:

The worst thing you can do in analysing polls of voting intention is to get excited at polls that show something exciting and different and ignore those that show the same old pattern. Occassionally the unusual poll will herald a genuine movement in public opinion – after all, whenever there is a change, one poll has to pick it up first. More often than not, the unusual poll will turn out to be a freak result, the product of unusual sampling or methods. If there is genuinely a change in public opinion, other polls will pick it up sooner or later, so it’s always wise to withhold your judgement.

http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/archives/9347

Anorak

MaxPB said:

Tissue_Price said:

May2015, the "nonpartisan" forecaster, is looking to unskew this poll:

https://twitter.com/May2015NS/status/587616065053663233

That twitter is probably run by a Labour supporter trying to paint a false narrative. A lot of social media is lefties dressed up as centrists.

This poll is so far from expectations it's pretty reasonable to look under the hood to see if anything's awry.

murali_s

MaxPB said:

Tissue_Price said:

May2015, the "nonpartisan" forecaster, is looking to unskew this poll:

https://twitter.com/May2015NS/status/587616065053663233

That twitter is probably run by a Labour supporter trying to paint a false narrative. A lot of social media is lefties dressed up as centrists.

Evidence?

Or just more right-wing fruitcake conjecture?

Richard_Nabavi

I'm pleased I traded myself into a position where I'm in profit on anything from Lab Maj to Con Maj. My only doubt is whether I've been a bit too cautious in keeping a balanced book on Scotland.

MarqueeMark

Good job this poll wasn't out during the Manifesto launch. First journo to mention it would have been strung up with Labour's lynch-mob mentality.

"The Glorious Leader must not be exposed to embarrassment!"

Sunil_Prasannan

Sean_F said:

I suspect it is on outlier, but the weekend's polls, putting the Conservatives on 33%, 33%, 33%, 34%, 36%, and 39% are a marked improvement on last week.

So my Easter ELBOW (0.4% Tory lead, 5th April) wasn't a blip!

Sean_F

antifrank said:

I'm less interested in whether the poll is an outlier than in whether ICM's methods this time around are sound. This is their third poll in a row with the Conservatives at 36% or more, so we can take it that's a consequence of methodology. They also find UKIP to be far lower than most pollsters: ditto.

So the question is not so much whether ICM have an outlier but are their methods right? And that, sadly, is unknowable until 8 May.

It's a pity we no longer have 'phone polling from Populus, as they used similar methods to ICM.

SouthamObserver

A bit toppy on the Tories, but basically in line with my thinking.

Blue_rog

I think it's all a ruse to get the lefties scared and turn out to vote

TheScreamingEagles

UKIP finishing fifth behind the Lib Dems and the Greens, that'd be a story and a half on election night.

No wonder Douglas is so cranky today

Quincel

antifrank said:

I'm less interested in whether the poll is an outlier than in whether ICM's methods this time around are sound. This is their third poll in a row with the Conservatives at 36% or more, so we can take it that's a consequence of methodology. They also find UKIP to be far lower than most pollsters: ditto.

So the question is not so much whether ICM have an outlier but are their methods right? And that, sadly, is unknowable until 8 May.

Agreed. ICM are systematically out of line this year. My book hopes they are wrong, but they aren't some new company with no track record.

[Deleted User]

The big movement in this poll is kippers returning to the the blues. This is the key dynamic to understanding how the result will play out. Are the kippers a protest party fit only for a good old grumble at Euro/council/by-election time? I suspect over time they'll become a bit more like the LibDems in the sense of having a few pockets of strength hiding a general weakness. Some of those pockets may be in the north.

chestnut

http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2015/apr/13/telephone-internet-polling-different-results

isam

Quincel said:

After Panelbase came out we had a raft of polls from Comres, YG, Populus, etc showing no signs of a radical shift. I predict we will have the same after this ICM poll. If, and only if, that does not happen will this become worrying for Labour.

As has been futilely pointed out on here before, ICM does not actually have a superior track record to most other pollsters over the past few years. I suspect after the election we will see these as outliers on both sides. I wouldn't be surprised if the final ICM before election day was much closer to the consensus so these are forgotten in the election post-mortem. Time will tell, however.

ICMs last 5 polls for the 2014 Euros

09 Feb Lab 35 Con 25 UKIP 20
13 Apr Lab 36 Con 25 UKIP 20
17 Apr Lab 30 UKIP 27 Con 22
11 May Con 27 UKIP 26 Lab 24
14 May Lab 29 Con 26 UKIP 25

Understated UKIP every time
Never had the winner in first place once
Had the winner in third place more often than not

Maybe they are particularly good at General elections? I don't know, but as someone who bets for a living, and has paid through his pocket by using old models when times have changed, and been ahead of the game on other occasions, I think that some pollsters are not adapting to a time where 4 parties are capable of double figure scores

Anyway that's what I have based my betting on. If I am wrong, I am wrong!

Sunil_Prasannan

TheScreamingEagles said:

Outlier.

U OK hun?

Scott_P

@DPJHodges: One thing is ludicrous. People who took Panelbase 6 point Labour lead at face value now insisting ICM is an "outlier".

CarlottaVance

murali_s said:

MaxPB said:

Tissue_Price said:

May2015, the "nonpartisan" forecaster, is looking to unskew this poll:

https://twitter.com/May2015NS/status/587616065053663233

That twitter is probably run by a Labour supporter trying to paint a false narrative. A lot of social media is lefties dressed up as centrists.

Evidence?

Or just more right-wing fruitcake conjecture?

It is the New Statesman - do you think that might be a bit of a clue?

Sunil_Prasannan

Scott_P said:

@DPJHodges: One thing is ludicrous. People who took Panelbase 6 point Labour lead at face value now insisting ICM is an "outlier".

One thing is ludicrous. People who took ICM 6 point ToryBoy lead at face value now insisting Panelbase is an "outlier"

Danny565

Gulp. Time for Andy Burnham to start preparing his leadership campaign.

TGOHF

isam said:

Quincel said:

After Panelbase came out we had a raft of polls from Comres, YG, Populus, etc showing no signs of a radical shift. I predict we will have the same after this ICM poll. If, and only if, that does not happen will this become worrying for Labour.

As has been futilely pointed out on here before, ICM does not actually have a superior track record to most other pollsters over the past few years. I suspect after the election we will see these as outliers on both sides. I wouldn't be surprised if the final ICM before election day was much closer to the consensus so these are forgotten in the election post-mortem. Time will tell, however.

ICMs last 5 polls for the 2014 Euros

09 Feb Lab 35 Con 25 UKIP 20
13 Apr Lab 36 Con 25 UKIP 20
17 Apr Lab 30 UKIP 27 Con 22
11 May Con 27 UKIP 26 Lab 24
14 May Lab 29 Con 26 UKIP 25

Understated UKIP every time
Never had the winner in first place once
Had the winner in third place more often than not

Maybe they are particularly good at General elections? I don't know, but as someone who bets for a living, and has paid through his pocket by using old models when times have changed, (t20 cricket) I think that some pollsters are not adapting to a time where 4 parties are capable of double figure scores

Anyway that's what I have based my betting on. If I am wrong, I am wrong!

Not sure if serious...

Saltire

The polls over the last month have Labour in the fairly narrow band of 32-36% as are the Libdems with 7-10% As for the Conservatives they have been anything from 30-39% and UKIP with an even larger spread of 7-19%!
Clearly it is trying to guess which of the pollsters are getting the blue/purple split right that could lead to some betting opportunities. Since so much of the kippers support comes from people who did not vote in 2010 I am thinking that they will be much closer to their lower figure and therefore the blues should be closer to the higher end of the predictions.

TheScreamingEagles

Sunil_Prasannan said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Outlier.

U OK hun?

I just can't get enough of this ICM Poll

Scrapheap_as_was

cough cough.

ICM

unbelievable stuff

Goldest ever standard.

MarkHopkins

Miliband: I'm ready to lead country.

ICM: No you're not.

GIN1138

We need to wait and see what the other phone pollsters Mori and ComRes have to say...

Could this be the election that blow's the internet polling bubble?

welshowl

6% Con lead. WTF. Just nuts. The pollsters must be getting brown trousers because someone is badly wrong here. I mean YG and ICM are 9 points apart. This isn't a palm versus tea leaf reader down the fair is it? In all fairness the dynamics between two biggies, two or three smallies, and a regional monster are probably melting their systems so it can't be easy.

I think it was Nate Silver who said about 1 in 20 polls or thereabouts is just way out and you've got to accept it.

I appreciate we've had Easter but unless about one and a half million Tories came back through Heathrow and Dover yesterday unnoticed my money about 35/34 Lab/Con at present. (Still EICEIPM - sadly).

Plato

Tories are full of Toblerone!

SMukesh said:

Easter's over then!:-)

Anorak

Scrapheap_as_was said:

cough cough.

ICM

unbelievable stuff

Goldest ever standard.

It just went platinum

MTimT

@ MarqueeMark

What are you planting and where in Devon? Born in Plymouth myself, though now stateside. Have just about finished digging my kitchen garden, and about to embark on an epic planting. About 150 yards of beds total. I have lettuces, brussel sprouts, broccoli, spinach, kale, onions, garlic, shallots, and a wide variety of herbs and berries in already. Peas, beans, potatoes up next then the nightshade family and squashes early next month.

CarlottaVance

Blue_rog said:

I think it's all a ruse to get the lefties scared and turn out to vote

Well that worked in Indy Ref......oh hang on, there's someone at the door......

TGOHF

Coulson McTrial put back to 11th May..

peter_from_putney

Thus far, surprisingly, the ICM poll has had no effect whatsoever on Sporting's GE Seats spread for the Tories which remains unchanged at 281 - 285.

chestnut

Both ICM and Opinium had the Tories at 37/38 on certain to vote last month.

Labour's vote is under 45, on the internet and doesn't have much of a track record for voting.

Only 57% of Labour's Populus vote this morning actually voted last time.

Even in marginals like Harrow East, the Tories are ahead until the first time vote/2010 can't be arsed get added to labour's score.

There is an enormous torpedo heading Ed's way on Thursday. He'll regret debating head to head with assorted lefties who will out-leftie him, and Farage who will batter him from the right.

Purseybear

Saltire said:

Since so much of the kippers support comes from people who did not vote in 2010 I am thinking that they will be much closer to their lower figure and therefore the blues should be closer to the higher end of the predictions.

If i was gonna pick out one post today for betting purposes that'd be the one. I think Mr Smithson might agree. UKIP support relies on 2010 non voters. Just cant see myself esp with weaker infrastructure. lower end ukip levels more likely esp as large chunks of voters return to roost with the main parties at the real election.

OblitusSumMe

Philip_Thompson said:

There's comments that this is probably an outlier (and it might be) but the changes on the last poll are within the margin of error aren't they? Is this now three ICM outliers in a row?

The average Conservative share in the last three ICM polls is 37%. That's down to a difference in methodology compared to the average share of about 34% in the last week's YouGov polls, or lower in Populus.

I trust ICM's methodology over the online polls.

GIN1138

TGOHF said:

Coulson McTrial put back to 11th May..

Why?

SimonStClare

Afternoon all.

There appears to be at least one poll out at the mo to bring cheer to every party. - Not sure that's necessarily good for the punters however.

Quincel

isam said:

Quincel said:

After Panelbase came out we had a raft of polls from Comres, YG, Populus, etc showing no signs of a radical shift. I predict we will have the same after this ICM poll. If, and only if, that does not happen will this become worrying for Labour.

As has been futilely pointed out on here before, ICM does not actually have a superior track record to most other pollsters over the past few years. I suspect after the election we will see these as outliers on both sides. I wouldn't be surprised if the final ICM before election day was much closer to the consensus so these are forgotten in the election post-mortem. Time will tell, however.

ICMs last 5 polls for the 2014 Euros

09 Feb Lab 35 Con 25 UKIP 20
13 Apr Lab 36 Con 25 UKIP 20
17 Apr Lab 30 UKIP 27 Con 22
11 May Con 27 UKIP 26 Lab 24
14 May Lab 29 Con 26 UKIP 25

Understated UKIP every time
Never had the winner in first place once
Had the winner in third place more often than not

Maybe they are particularly good at General elections? I don't know, but as someone who bets for a living, and has paid through his pocket by using old models when times have changed, and been ahead of the game on other occasions, I think that some pollsters are not adapting to a time where 4 parties are capable of double figure scores

Anyway that's what I have based my betting on. If I am wrong, I am wrong!

Yes I was just re-reading the 2014 Euros too actually. I think, and awfully hope, that ICM systematically underrate UKIP.

YBarddCwsc

"So the question is not so much whether ICM have an outlier but are their methods right? And that, sadly, is unknowable until 8 May."

Absolutely agreed. Polling can only be calibrated against the actual results.

If the political landscape changes, then there is no guarantee that the polling methodology or weighting calibrated against the 2010 results (or whenever) is correct for 2015.

This error surely dominates sampling error in the total error budget.

I have never really believed the argument -- often made by OGH -- that the polling debacle in 1992 can never happen again because polling is more sophisticated nowadays.

AlastairMeeks

TGOHF said:

Coulson McTrial put back to 11th May..

That, far more than this opinion poll, is the best news that David Cameron has had today.

Sunil_Prasannan

Honest question, why might phone polls be "better" than online in the digital age?

Purseybear

GIN1138 said:

We need to wait and see what the other phone pollsters Mori and ComRes have to say...

Could this be the election that blow's the internet polling bubble?

ok thats the second top betting post of the day. as a YG VI member I'm more & more sure that the internet polling is a complete load of b ollock s

OblitusSumMe

taffys said:

What has changed to give this poll lead?

Pong's question from the previous thread. It's just a thought, but perhaps the prospect of a lab/SNP coalition is being brought into focus by the recent publicity.

If you trust this poll - as in you trust the ICM methodology - then not much has changed as it's not that different from their February poll.

It's just an illusion of change because of the more frequent polling from the online polls that is anchoring your expectations.

SouthamObserver

Tories must be heading into overall majority country now. Very depressing, but not unexpected.

Richard_Nabavi

Sunil_Prasannan said:

Honest question, why might phone polls be "better" than online in the digital age?

Because of self-select bias in online polls.

Of course, other polling methods have their own problems as well.

Morris_Dancer

Good afternoon, everyone.

Whilst amusing, I don't think getting over-excited by one poll is wise.

Mr. Observer, if the poll were accurate, I'd agree. I'd be surprised to a significant degree if they got 39% on polling day, though.

Danny565

SouthamObserver said:

Tories must be heading into overall majority country now. Very depressing, but not unexpected.

And Labour have now surrendered one of their few arguments which would've roused apathetic Labour voters who don't think it matters which guys get into government.

TheScreamingEagles

Sunil_Prasannan said:

Honest question, why might phone polls be "better" than online in the digital age?

Online polls have too many people politically active people in them.

For example, remember the YouGov poll had 20% of the respondents watching the first interview, when only 5% of the country did.

Grandiose

SouthamObserver said:

Tories must be heading into overall majority country now. Very depressing, but not unexpected.

The ICM poll is basically the definition of a Con majority. They'd have to perform at least that well (reeling in one last outlier).

MaxPB

Sunil_Prasannan said:

Honest question, why might phone polls be "better" than online in the digital age?

More of the population is contactable by phone (landline, mobile) than is on the internet. Also, there has always been some suspicion that UKIP have filled up a lot of the online panels with their activists to skew the results like the SNP did with the IndyRef on Panelbase.

Pulpstar

Richard_Nabavi said:

I'm pleased I traded myself into a position where I'm in profit on anything from Lab Maj to Con Maj. My only doubt is whether I've been a bit too cautious in keeping a balanced book on Scotland.

So long as Con Majority means Labour sub 250... which I think it should, I think I'm fine too.

Plato

*claps* First LOL of the Day

MarkHopkins said:

Miliband: I'm ready to lead country.

ICM: No you're not.

Scrapheap_as_was

OGH seems to be very focused on the regular Ashcroft poll ..... strange to see when ICM is out.

Mike Smithson‏@MSmithsonPB·4 mins4 minutes ago
At 4pm could die hard LAB supporters be cheering on @LordAshcroft who 2 weeks ago had CON 3% ahead?

CarlottaVance

Sneaky Tories:

http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2015/apr/13/text-message-suggests-tories-plan-to-outflank-labour-on-minimum-wage

RobbieBox

This is a rogue poll I reckon. The Tories could be in the lead but only by 1-3% the big clue is in the UKIP share of the vote.
If you look at the BBC poll of polls, UKIPs share has fallen by about 2% since November last year but this poll suggests that they are suddenly 5% lower than the worst other for them, nothing has happened in this campaign to explain why that would occur now.
The Lib/Dem share of the vote is exactly in line with the poll of polls, the Labour share is feasible, but the Tory share is out of line with every other poll and the UKIP share is way out.

tyson

I had a feeling today that ICM was going to show a big swing to the Tories. I posted as much this morning.
Oh well. Labour can always blame Miliband

taffys

Tories must be heading into overall majority country now. Very depressing, but not unexpected.

Steady on Mr SO. A couple of days ago we had the Bob Sykes Tendency wanting to lead an army of blue lemmings off a cliff.

MaxPB

Danny565 said:

SouthamObserver said:

Tories must be heading into overall majority country now. Very depressing, but not unexpected.

And Labour have now surrendered one of their few arguments which would've roused apathetic Labour voters who don't think it matters which guys get into government.

Yup, I think the pro-austerity stance taken by Ed this morning and the Labour manifesto has been an error. The people who want cuts or austerity don't trust Labour on the economy and those who don't want cuts really, really don't want cuts and aren't going to vote Tory anyway. As I said in the last thread, their cuts should have been a few numbers in an appendix, not a page one pledge to reduce the deficit in every year of government.

Pulpstar

Our Genial Host and Tom Newton Dunn are two peas from the same pod when it comes to polls !

peter_from_putney

peter_from_putney said:

Thus far, surprisingly, the ICM poll has had no effect whatsoever on Sporting's GE Seats spread for the Tories which remains unchanged at 281 - 285.

Btw, and I'm whispering this very quietly, right now OGH could close his Con Seats - Lab Seats with Sporting at just 14 seats, thereby containing his losses to a tiny 2 x his unit stake (which wasn't £20 we were told). Personally I'd be tempted to do just that and soon.

Scott_P

Some say this poll is the Gold Standard

Some say, it's an outlier

All we know is, it's the funniest poll for weeks...

Richard_Nabavi

CarlottaVance said:

Sneaky Tories:

http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2015/apr/13/text-message-suggests-tories-plan-to-outflank-labour-on-minimum-wage

Ahem..

Interception of communications.

Another newspaper group got into a spot a bother over that.

Purseybear

Sunil_Prasannan said:

Honest question, why might phone polls be "better" than online in the digital age?

Tell you some reasons with YG as someone who does them regularly.

1. Theyre self selecting. Look at the type of sample. TSE exposed the huge difference between public viewing figures vs YG VI members: like 5 to 1 difference.
2. They always include surveys that take c. 10-15 mins to complete. Who on earth will do these but a certain type of non-random political type
3. They struggle to sample and clearly recycle the same people: I get asked to do one at least 2x a week. That's a sample of 1000 a throw. So despite having apparently 300,000 registered theyre basically sampling from the same couple of thousand political anoraks. Hence the lack of churn.

Online polling is utter garbage imho

CarlottaVance

SouthamObserver said:

Tories must be heading into overall majority country now. Very depressing, but not unexpected.

Don't go all SeanT Sindyref on us!

Biggest party if they are lucky and get their act together......

Plato

This poll is just the sort of one that should accompany a wild night of sex. Not getting *overexcited* sounds a bit dull to me.

Take your pleasures where you can. That's my motto

Morris_Dancer said:

Good afternoon, everyone.

Whilst amusing, I don't think getting over-excited by one poll is wise.

Mr. Observer, if the poll were accurate, I'd agree. I'd be surprised to a significant degree if they got 39% on polling day, though.

Alistair

TGOHF said:

Coulson McTrial put back to 11th May..

That's just not on.

I was really hoping for lots more column inches on the criminal Cameron let into the heart of government.

Pulpstar

peter_from_putney said:

peter_from_putney said:

Thus far, surprisingly, the ICM poll has had no effect whatsoever on Sporting's GE Seats spread for the Tories which remains unchanged at 281 - 285.

Btw, and I'm whispering this very quietly, right now OGH could close his Con Seats - Lab Seats with Sporting at just 14 seats, thereby containing his losses to a tiny 2 x his unit stake (which wasn't £20 we were told). Personally I'd be tempted to do just that and soon.

OGH isn't a lily livered bettor who changes his position at the hint of a bad poll though.

GIN1138

Scrapheap_as_was said:

OGH seems to be very focused on the regular Ashcroft poll ..... strange to see when ICM is out.

Mike Smithson‏@MSmithsonPB·4 mins4 minutes ago
At 4pm could die hard LAB supporters be cheering on @LordAshcroft who 2 weeks ago had CON 3% ahead?

Is Lord Ashcroft a member the British Polling Council?

Someone told me recently that he isn't....

TheScreamingEagles

GIN1138 said:

Scrapheap_as_was said:

OGH seems to be very focused on the regular Ashcroft poll ..... strange to see when ICM is out.

Mike Smithson‏@MSmithsonPB·4 mins4 minutes ago
At 4pm could die hard LAB supporters be cheering on @LordAshcroft who 2 weeks ago had CON 3% ahead?

Is Lord Ashcroft a member the British Polling Council?

Someone told me recently that he isn't....

He isn't, but he uses BPC registered pollsters.

Pong

OblitusSumMe said:

taffys said:

What has changed to give this poll lead?

Pong's question from the previous thread. It's just a thought, but perhaps the prospect of a lab/SNP coalition is being brought into focus by the recent publicity.

If you trust this poll - as in you trust the ICM methodology - then not much has changed as it's not that different from their February poll.

It's just an illusion of change because of the more frequent polling from the online polls that is anchoring your expectations.

Trading the election is no fun without the illusion of change.

Alistair

Pulpstar said:

peter_from_putney said:

peter_from_putney said:

Thus far, surprisingly, the ICM poll has had no effect whatsoever on Sporting's GE Seats spread for the Tories which remains unchanged at 281 - 285.

Btw, and I'm whispering this very quietly, right now OGH could close his Con Seats - Lab Seats with Sporting at just 14 seats, thereby containing his losses to a tiny 2 x his unit stake (which wasn't £20 we were told). Personally I'd be tempted to do just that and soon.

OGH isn't a lily livered bettor who changes his position at the hint of a bad poll though.

He closed out his sell SNP at 21 position - maybe not on the strength of one bad poll though

MTimT

Richard_Nabavi said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

Honest question, why might phone polls be "better" than online in the digital age?

Because of self-select bias in online polls.

Of course, other polling methods have their own problems as well.

Are the panels also static in their membership? If so, I think you'll also have other biases, such as anchoring based on previous responses and results.

Scott_P

@pppolitics: Following ICM poll, Tories' odds of winning most seats are cut slightly from 4/7 to 8/15 (approx. 63% chance) http://t.co/WXJAjiGeCh #GE2015

Pulpstar

Alistair said:

TGOHF said:

Coulson McTrial put back to 11th May..

That's just not on.

I was really hoping for lots more column inches on the criminal Cameron let into the heart of government.

Yes but against that we both need the Scottish Tory vote to hold up and be as high as possible.

chestnut

isam said:

ICMs last 5 polls for the 2014 Euros

09 Feb Lab 35 Con 25 UKIP 20
13 Apr Lab 36 Con 25 UKIP 20
17 Apr Lab 30 UKIP 27 Con 22
11 May Con 27 UKIP 26 Lab 24
14 May Lab 29 Con 26 UKIP 25

Today's ICM pushed through the Euro corrector would give:

CON 36.9 LAB 29.4 UKIP 9.5 LD 7.9

peter_from_putney

"OGH seems to be very focused on the regular Ashcroft poll ......"

So what's new!

isam

TGOHF said:

isam said:

Quincel said:

After Panelbase came out we had a raft of polls from Comres, YG, Populus, etc showing no signs of a radical shift. I predict we will have the same after this ICM poll. If, and only if, that does not happen will this become worrying for Labour.

As has been futilely pointed out on here before, ICM does not actually have a superior track record to most other pollsters over the past few years. I suspect after the election we will see these as outliers on both sides. I wouldn't be surprised if the final ICM before election day was much closer to the consensus so these are forgotten in the election post-mortem. Time will tell, however.

ICMs last 5 polls for the 2014 Euros

09 Feb Lab 35 Con 25 UKIP 20
13 Apr Lab 36 Con 25 UKIP 20
17 Apr Lab 30 UKIP 27 Con 22
11 May Con 27 UKIP 26 Lab 24
14 May Lab 29 Con 26 UKIP 25

Understated UKIP every time
Never had the winner in first place once
Had the winner in third place more often than not

Maybe they are particularly good at General elections? I don't know, but as someone who bets for a living, and has paid through his pocket by using old models when times have changed, (t20 cricket) I think that some pollsters are not adapting to a time where 4 parties are capable of double figure scores

Anyway that's what I have based my betting on. If I am wrong, I am wrong!

Not sure if serious...

Of course I am serious

What do you disagree with?

Plato

Whilst YouGov are a great deal better than they were in 2010ish - it's the associated VI and Choice of Confectionary/Shampoo/Insurance/Mobile Phone purveyor or brand that rather skews it.

I felt like an alien in 2010 when answering YGov questionnaires - they asked me hundreds of questions I had no opinion on. It's much better now but still requires a polling nerd personality bias.

Sunil_Prasannan said:

Honest question, why might phone polls be "better" than online in the digital age?

foxinsoxuk

If the kippers vo to 6% or under then HL owes me a bottle of single malt. I was expecting it to travel the other way.

PfP tipped Libs over UKIP as a matchbet the other day too.

Still 3.5 with Ladbrokes

isam

Quincel said:

isam said:

Quincel said:

After Panelbase came out we had a raft of polls from Comres, YG, Populus, etc showing no signs of a radical shift. I predict we will have the same after this ICM poll. If, and only if, that does not happen will this become worrying for Labour.

As has been futilely pointed out on here before, ICM does not actually have a superior track record to most other pollsters over the past few years. I suspect after the election we will see these as outliers on both sides. I wouldn't be surprised if the final ICM before election day was much closer to the consensus so these are forgotten in the election post-mortem. Time will tell, however.

ICMs last 5 polls for the 2014 Euros

09 Feb Lab 35 Con 25 UKIP 20
13 Apr Lab 36 Con 25 UKIP 20
17 Apr Lab 30 UKIP 27 Con 22
11 May Con 27 UKIP 26 Lab 24
14 May Lab 29 Con 26 UKIP 25

Understated UKIP every time
Never had the winner in first place once
Had the winner in third place more often than not

Maybe they are particularly good at General elections? I don't know, but as someone who bets for a living, and has paid through his pocket by using old models when times have changed, and been ahead of the game on other occasions, I think that some pollsters are not adapting to a time where 4 parties are capable of double figure scores

Anyway that's what I have based my betting on. If I am wrong, I am wrong!

Yes I was just re-reading the 2014 Euros too actually. I think, and awfully hope, that ICM systematically underrate UKIP.

I think and hope so too!

CarlottaVance

Clegg's cleverly set the Outrage! Bus running:

Nick Clegg has been criticised for "disgraceful" comments comparing Labour's record on borrowing to an alcoholic 'pledging not to drink again'.

http://www.itv.com/news/update/2015-04-13/nick-clegg-criticised-for-labour-alcoholic-remark/

It will keep 'Labour profligacy' in the news.....