I swuspect this is the point where UKIP becoming a full mainstream party now works against their stated aim. There'll now be people who'll vote in just because UKIP say out.
I think it is in part that.
Outers like Daniel Hannan and Casino Royale of this parish, both have made the point that UKIP and Farage are damaging the out brand.
The kippers will lose because they haven't really done enough groundwork. The CBI and others will pitch in and scare the electorate.
The kippers would be much safer if they pitched the referendum on no further progress to full union which removes all the economic arguments but ultimately will end up at the same end point.
I swuspect this is the point where UKIP becoming a full mainstream party now works against their stated aim. There'll now be people who'll vote in just because UKIP say out.
I think it is in part that.
Outers like Daniel Hannan and Casino Royale of this parish, both have made the point that UKIP and Farage are damaging the out brand.
The kippers will lose because they haven't really done enough groundwork. The CBI and others will pitch in and scare the electorate.
The kippers would be much safer if they pitched the referendum on no further progress to full union which removes all the economic arguments but ultimately will end up at the same end point.
I think it would be possible to counter/partly counter a lot of CBI scare tactics. Nissan, Ford, etc. all threatened to leave if we didn't join the euro back in the late 90s early 20s.
I personally think a referendum too soon will be a mistake. Further integration is required if the EU project is to survive. It is clear that there is no appetite for joining a political union so we will have to make a decision sooner or later. Better to make it when the EU is in a terrible mess.
I swuspect this is the point where UKIP becoming a full mainstream party now works against their stated aim. There'll now be people who'll vote in just because UKIP say out.
I think it is in part that.
Outers like Daniel Hannan and Casino Royale of this parish, both have made the point that UKIP and Farage are damaging the out brand.
The kippers will lose because they haven't really done enough groundwork. The CBI and others will pitch in and scare the electorate.
The kippers would be much safer if they pitched the referendum on no further progress to full union which removes all the economic arguments but ultimately will end up at the same end point.
That's why I can't work out why Farage is demanding a referendum this year.
Farage has to have a reason on Europe as to why Eurosceptics should vote UKIP and not Conservative. So by promising something sooner he can say that UKIP have a better offer. The fact that with the current structure in politics UKIP on balance is more likely to reduce the number of Conservative seats than Labour's is of course a secondary consequence but then Farage can stay in business, get re-elected as an MEP and from GE2015 possibly qualify his party for Short money...... If the Conservatives did deliver a referendum, UKIPs reason for existing would be under severe threat.
I wish Cameron would stop using his family whenever he talks about the NHS. Why should he invest the COUNTRY'S money in it because it's always served HIS family so well. Does that mean he wont spend on education because he didn't use state education? He's really a pretty unattractive politician
I wish Cameron would stop using his family whenever he talks about the NHS. Why should he invest the COUNTRY'S money in it because it's always served HIS family so well. Does that mean he wont spend on education because he didn't use state education? He's really a pretty unattractive politician
Would you like the COUNTRY'S money spent on YOUR healthcare?
I wish Cameron would stop using his family whenever he talks about the NHS. Why should he invest the COUNTRY'S money in it because it's always served HIS family so well. Does that mean he wont spend on education because he didn't use state education? He's really a pretty unattractive politician
Roger I find it more than uncomfortable that Cameron brings up his family, particularly his dead son, seemingly to try and make political traction with the NHS. It's too personal. I can't think of any other mainstream politicians that has quite so vociferously talked about deeply personal issues as losing a child- I recall Brown doing it a bit (and I hated that too).
There must be alot of other politicians with a story to tell- a dead child, spouse, close family member. They all probably keep it private- where it should be kept.
I swuspect this is the point where UKIP becoming a full mainstream party now works against their stated aim. There'll now be people who'll vote in just because UKIP say out.
I think it is in part that.
Outers like Daniel Hannan and Casino Royale of this parish, both have made the point that UKIP and Farage are damaging the out brand.
The kippers will lose because they haven't really done enough groundwork. The CBI and others will pitch in and scare the electorate.
The kippers would be much safer if they pitched the referendum on no further progress to full union which removes all the economic arguments but ultimately will end up at the same end point.
I think it would be possible to counter/partly counter a lot of CBI scare tactics. Nissan, Ford, etc. all threatened to leave if we didn't join the euro back in the late 90s early 20s.
I personally think a referendum too soon will be a mistake. Further integration is required if the EU project is to survive. It is clear that there is no appetite for joining a political union so we will have to make a decision sooner or later. Better to make it when the EU is in a terrible mess.
While I happen to agree with you re the multinats, I can't actually see them admitting this during a referendum.
Funnily enough I'd say the biggest advantage the kippers have is the EU itself. The referendum can be led on vote how you feel, they'll always come back to us if they don't like the answer. Best to scare the crap out of them and then negotiate a good deal.
I swuspect this is the point where UKIP becoming a full mainstream party now works against their stated aim. There'll now be people who'll vote in just because UKIP say out.
I think it is in part that.
Outers like Daniel Hannan and Casino Royale of this parish, both have made the point that UKIP and Farage are damaging the out brand.
The kippers will lose because they haven't really done enough groundwork. The CBI and others will pitch in and scare the electorate.
The kippers would be much safer if they pitched the referendum on no further progress to full union which removes all the economic arguments but ultimately will end up at the same end point.
I think it would be possible to counter/partly counter a lot of CBI scare tactics. Nissan, Ford, etc. all threatened to leave if we didn't join the euro back in the late 90s early 20s.
I personally think a referendum too soon will be a mistake. Further integration is required if the EU project is to survive. It is clear that there is no appetite for joining a political union so we will have to make a decision sooner or later. Better to make it when the EU is in a terrible mess.
While I happen to agree with you re the multinats, I can't actually see them admitting this during a referendum.
Funnily enough I'd say the biggest advantage the kippers have is the EU itself. The referendum can be led on vote how you feel, they'll always come back to us if they don't like the answer. Best to scare the crap out of them and then negotiate a good deal.
I tend to agree with the general gloomy consensus. UKIP's heart is in the right place but they aren't big or clever enough to win a referendum against the forces of in.
I wish Cameron would stop using his family whenever he talks about the NHS. Why should he invest the COUNTRY'S money in it because it's always served HIS family so well. Does that mean he wont spend on education because he didn't use state education? He's really a pretty unattractive politician
Roger I find it more than uncomfortable that Cameron brings up his family, particularly his dead son, seemingly to try and make political traction with the NHS. It's too personal. I can't think of any other mainstream politicians that has quite so vociferously talked about deeply personal issues as losing a child- I recall Brown doing it a bit (and I hated that too).
There must be alot of other politicians with a story to tell- a dead child, spouse, close family member. They all probably keep it private- where it should be kept.
I agree it's uncomfortable, but do you think he might just be telling the truth?
TSE- thanks for the link- I've just had a quick look through. (and thanks Roger too). So the Wisdom index is more accurate than polling. This year though it may overstate the LD's mind because people are prompted with the last election's result.
I tell you I'm getting really interested in polls- it's fascinating going through the raw detail. I probably have a late development asbergers disorder.
For instance today's Opinium poll has the Tories with a greater lead amongst women. This seems to be against the prevailing mood.
Actually my memory is that Brown didn't and in fact kept a pretty stiff upper lip all the way through. Cameron even allowed a full page photo of his six year old daughter on the front of the Mail. Imagine the stigma of being on the front page of that!
I wish Labour would stop referring to the NHS as OUR NHS..They only represent about a third of the population and the rest of us pay for it as well.Labour does not own the NHS
I wish Cameron would stop using his family whenever he talks about the NHS. Why should he invest the COUNTRY'S money in it because it's always served HIS family so well. Does that mean he wont spend on education because he didn't use state education? He's really a pretty unattractive politician
I suspect the point may be that the tories are concerned that voters (wrongly) believe that the posh/rich don't use the NHS and are therefore indifferent to it.
I wish Cameron would stop using his family whenever he talks about the NHS. Why should he invest the COUNTRY'S money in it because it's always served HIS family so well. Does that mean he wont spend on education because he didn't use state education? He's really a pretty unattractive politician
Roger I find it more than uncomfortable that Cameron brings up his family, particularly his dead son, seemingly to try and make political traction with the NHS. It's too personal. I can't think of any other mainstream politicians that has quite so vociferously talked about deeply personal issues as losing a child- I recall Brown doing it a bit (and I hated that too).
There must be alot of other politicians with a story to tell- a dead child, spouse, close family member. They all probably keep it private- where it should be kept.
I agree it's uncomfortable, but do you think he might just be telling the truth?
Q. Why do you value the NHS, Mr. Cameron?
A. Because of all the help it gave my son.
Seems a very natural response.
I was quite close to the care given to Cameron's son in Oxford. The palliative care to children with profound and complex needs is utterly outstanding in the UK, particularly Oxford. I couldn't imagine anyone in the world in any healthcare system getting this kind of care where money and resources are not object- and all free. But, that said, it is still very personal to speak of such a loss. And very unBritish.
I wish Cameron would stop using his family whenever he talks about the NHS. Why should he invest the COUNTRY'S money in it because it's always served HIS family so well. Does that mean he wont spend on education because he didn't use state education? He's really a pretty unattractive politician
No he isn't. I suggest the numpties stop saying he is out of touch and immune from life's vicissitudes because he happens to be well off..
What a pity he didn't have any relatives in social housing with a spare room
I pay plenty in taxes, and I'm fine with that.
I just want it to be spent more productively than giving an individual a spare room unless they need it. There is too much need to waste resources like that.
I swuspect this is the point where UKIP becoming a full mainstream party now works against their stated aim. There'll now be people who'll vote in just because UKIP say out.
I think it is in part that.
Outers like Daniel Hannan and Casino Royale of this parish, both have made the point that UKIP and Farage are damaging the out brand.
The kippers will lose because they haven't really done enough groundwork. The CBI and others will pitch in and scare the electorate.
The kippers would be much safer if they pitched the referendum on no further progress to full union which removes all the economic arguments but ultimately will end up at the same end point.
That's why I can't work out why Farage is demanding a referendum this year.
I think Farage is wrong on this but I do see a logic behind it.
If the referendum is this year then there is no way Cameron can make any claims that he has won concessions from the EU. The referendum will be fought on the basis of the EU as it is now take it or leave it.
If the referendum is in 2 years time then that gives Cameron time to claim he has won some sort of concession and renegotiation. It will be garbage of course and the referendum will really be a case of the EU as it is take it or leave it but it gives Cameron the chance to try and fool the public into thinking things can or would be different if we stayed in.
As I said at the start I think Farage is wrong for a whole host of reasons but there are some logical reasons why he might think an early referendum has more chance of an out than a later one.
I wish Labour would stop referring to the NHS as OUR NHS..They only represent about a third of the population and the rest of us pay for it as well.Labour does not own the NHS
Seconded. I hate that. We all pay for it, it is not Labour's.
I wish Labour would stop referring to the NHS as OUR NHS..They only represent about a third of the population and the rest of us pay for it as well.Labour does not own the NHS
And as has been mentioned several times - the Tory 1945 manifesto had a clear promise to create a national health service. In fact the creation had been decided during the war with a 'gentleman's agreement' that whichever party won the election would implement the creation of a NHS.
It's one of those inconvenient truths that Labour PBers wish they could hide.
It is the UKIP figure isn't it. Down to 11% in this poll, where as some other polls have UKIP at 15-18%.
The question is as Cameron put it will they "come home" and how many of them? If I was a Tory, I think I would want them to be pushing the vote Farage get Miliband / Sturgeon and all the uncertainty with that at every opportunity, rather than the god awful "long term economic plan" mantra.
Because if UKIP do get 15%, Tories are stuffed. If they can get UKIP down below 10%, they have some chance.
What a pity he didn't have any relatives in social housing with a spare room
I pay plenty in taxes, and I'm fine with that.
I just want it to be spent more productively than giving an individual a spare room unless they need it. There is too much need to waste resources like that.
But you have no problem with the same individual getting a £100,000 subsidy to buy the place. It's a puzzler, that's for sure!
But, that said, it is still very personal to speak of such a loss. And very unBritish.
He gets criticised for answering questions about his personal experience of the NHS, and the same people would criticise him if he brushed off those questions. He can't win with such people, but anyone with a brain and a heart knows that the Camerons owe the NHS a great deal.
SO..Then council house tenants are very lucky..private tenants don't get such largesse..And on PB the lefties are always going on about how downtrodden the poor council house tenants are.
Hmmm...that was interesting. Out canvassing in a fairly prosperous part of Blairgowrie today. Tories outnumbering SNP 4 or 5 to 1. Even more hopeful Labour and Lib Dems willing to vote tactically in significant numbers. Apparently some activists from these parties are even helping out.
This should be a seat the SNP should win easily but with a largely absent candidate and a rather overconfident party is it possible an upset is on the cards? Very much odds against still but not impossible. Not at all.
I just want it to be spent more productively than giving an individual a spare room unless they need it. There is too much need to waste resources like that.
Agreed. Every policy has flaws and needs adjusting, exemptions and the like, but the core reasoning behind this one seems perfectly sound to me
No he isn't. I suggest the numpties stop saying he is out of touch and immune from life's vicissitudes because he happens to be well off..
They are fine to say that, if they can corroborate it - what they need to stop doing is saying that he automatically must be out of touch because he is well off, which might be the case but is not guaranteed.
I think Farage is wrong on this but I do see a logic behind it.
If the referendum is this year then there is no way Cameron can make any claims that he has won concessions from the EU. The referendum will be fought on the basis of the EU as it is now take it or leave it.
If the referendum is in 2 years time then that gives Cameron time to claim he has won some sort of concession and renegotiation. It will be garbage of course and the referendum will really be a case of the EU as it is take it or leave it but it gives Cameron the chance to try and fool the public into thinking things can or would be different if we stayed in.
Sounds about right. UKIP's leadership and messaging does seem worried that Cameron would succeed in fooling people about getting genuine concessions. I disagree with them on that point, I think they and the no doubt many Tory rebels on the subject would point out it will be a lie, but if they think that, then of course they want one so soon it cannot even be implausibly argued.
Hmmm...that was interesting. Out canvassing in a fairly prosperous part of Blairgowrie today. Tories outnumbering SNP 4 or 5 to 1. Even more hopeful Labour and Lib Dems willing to vote tactically in significant numbers. Apparently some activists from these parties are even helping out.
This should be a seat the SNP should win easily but with a largely absent candidate and a rather overconfident party is it possible an upset is on the cards? Very much odds against still but not impossible. Not at all.
Hmmm...that was interesting. Out canvassing in a fairly prosperous part of Blairgowrie today. Tories outnumbering SNP 4 or 5 to 1. Even more hopeful Labour and Lib Dems willing to vote tactically in significant numbers. Apparently some activists from these parties are even helping out.
This should be a seat the SNP should win easily but with a largely absent candidate and a rather overconfident party is it possible an upset is on the cards? Very much odds against still but not impossible. Not at all.
4 times around Rosemount fairly puts a spring in unionist step.
The stills the plod have released of the heist, it doesn't include a shot of one of the robbers who looks straight into the camera. It is on the Mirror video footage (and the mirror pixelate his face), wonder why?
What a pity he didn't have any relatives in social housing with a spare room
I pay plenty in taxes, and I'm fine with that.
I just want it to be spent more productively than giving an individual a spare room unless they need it. There is too much need to waste resources like that.
I wish Cameron would stop using his family whenever he talks about the NHS. Why should he invest the COUNTRY'S money in it because it's always served HIS family so well. Does that mean he wont spend on education because he didn't use state education? He's really a pretty unattractive politician
Roger I find it more than uncomfortable that Cameron brings up his family, particularly his dead son, seemingly to try and make political traction with the NHS. It's too personal. I can't think of any other mainstream politicians that has quite so vociferously talked about deeply personal issues as losing a child- I recall Brown doing it a bit (and I hated that too).
There must be alot of other politicians with a story to tell- a dead child, spouse, close family member. They all probably keep it private- where it should be kept.
I agree it's uncomfortable, but do you think he might just be telling the truth?
Q. Why do you value the NHS, Mr. Cameron?
A. Because of all the help it gave my son.
Seems a very natural response.
I was quite close to the care given to Cameron's son in Oxford. The palliative care to children with profound and complex needs is utterly outstanding in the UK, particularly Oxford. I couldn't imagine anyone in the world in any healthcare system getting this kind of care where money and resources are not object- and all free. But, that said, it is still very personal to speak of such a loss. And very unBritish.
If that is a claim that you were personally professionally involved, you should not be making it. If it isn't, it is meaningless. And it really is the most distasteful jingoism to claim that you "couldn't imagine" similar pediatric care elsewhere in the world - do you think the wops, spics, dagoes and huns are too foreign to care for their children properly?
The millionaire historian says he views the forthcoming General Election with “a degree of modified despair”. But faced with the prospect of an Ed Miliband government, he’ll be voting Tory. "Especially after our last experience of what a Labour government did, I cannot possibly see how anybody could vote for him.” He regards Miliband as “poison”, and does not spare him. “He is a man of high ambition and low talent – the worst possible combination. His whole language at the moment is soak the rich, hate the rich. It’s snide, it’s mean-spirited and, of course, it defies the truth that economies depend on the intelligent, the entrepreneurial, those who were created with money. One may not like it, one may disapprove of it, but all the nice things that we want come essentially from their abilities.
“Labour – like the Tories – have excluded any increases in the principal forms of taxation, the broad line of income tax or the broad line of VAT. We’re being utterly and profoundly dishonest. We’re saying that you can have all the goodies of the welfare state if only you screw a little bit more money out of a few multi-millionaires and ordinary people won’t be affected by it. The truth is that a welfare state of necessity imposes high levels of taxation on ordinary folk.” The smell of class warfare is nastier on the Labour side, Starkey insists, but the “dishonesty is at least equal” on the Tory side. “We have, in percentage terms, one of the highest peacetime debts we’ve ever had. We are borrowing the equivalent of the cost of the NHS every year. It is totally unsustainable.” David Cameron and George Osborne between them, Starkey argues, have demonstrated some tactical skill, but a complete absence of strategic thinking. “There have been some areas like education reform and some of the welfare reforms which have been intelligent and possibly far reaching in effect. But all this has been purchased at the cost of not asking big, radical questions.”
The deficit, he says, should have been reduced “much more”. But the Prime Minister and Chancellor failed to embark on a radical reappraisal of what the state does, given that the Britain they inherited was “bust”. Instead, in a “muddle-headed and sentimental” way they vowed to protect the NHS, education and overseas aid causing “wildly asymmetric cuts”.
Firing on all cylinders now, he turns to defence, claiming that the Armed Forces have been turned into a “mockery”, while the police are being cut back “at exactly the moment when there’s a serious risk of the increase of domestic terrorism. Aspects of local government are being squeezed to the point at which you might as well not bother with a town hall.”
Should the Tories win next month and hold a referendum on the EU, Starkey will probably vote to leave. “We have a very large trade deficit with Europe, we have a decent trade balance with the rest of the world. Is Europe going to cut off its nose to spite its face? It seems to me so infinitely unlikely. There’s no risk. "There would be a risk if we were running a German-style trade surplus with Europe. But we’re not. The problem of our leaving Europe is a problem for the Germans and not us.” So far, so Starkey. But he’s on a roll. Overall, he isn’t impressed by the British political talent currently on offer. “I don’t see anybody around with any prime ministerial qualifications at all.
"Remember, real talent has left politics – for very good reasons. For most of British history a career in politics, a career in what was quaintly called public service, was the height of ambition. It was that which brought you until relatively recently very substantial financial returns. It also brought you enormous returns of prestige. It offered of course, because of empire and so on, the ability to operate upon a world stage. We’re a shrunken country.” Starkey himself was brought up in a council house, the son of a junior foreman and a cleaner. He was born with two club feet that required numerous and “exceedingly painful” operations, thanks to experimental surgery that had been pioneered with injured airmen. http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/celebritynews/11528077/David-Starkey-why-Ed-Miliband-is-poison-and-David-Cameron-muddle-headed.html
I swuspect this is the point where UKIP becoming a full mainstream party now works against their stated aim. There'll now be people who'll vote in just because UKIP say out.
I think it is in part that.
Outers like Daniel Hannan and Casino Royale of this parish, both have made the point that UKIP and Farage are damaging the out brand.
The kippers will lose because they haven't really done enough groundwork. The CBI and others will pitch in and scare the electorate.
The kippers would be much safer if they pitched the referendum on no further progress to full union which removes all the economic arguments but ultimately will end up at the same end point.
That's why I can't work out why Farage is demanding a referendum this year.
There is not much point Farage and the kippers calling for 'no further progress to full union' because Cameron has already said that. http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2013/jan/23/david-cameron-uk-exemption-eu There will be no further progress by Britain to full union, which is why we need a referendum to agree to any new status within the EU. "But in the end the choice will not be for the politicians. The choice will be for the British people. The fact is we are not comfortable with the state of our membership today. It does need to change. I am setting out the path for how we change that, how we put that to the British people and in the end they will decide.''
And even if there was any agreement by Britain to full union there would have to be a referendum to ratify it.
Hmmm...that was interesting. Out canvassing in a fairly prosperous part of Blairgowrie today. Tories outnumbering SNP 4 or 5 to 1. Even more hopeful Labour and Lib Dems willing to vote tactically in significant numbers. Apparently some activists from these parties are even helping out.
This should be a seat the SNP should win easily but with a largely absent candidate and a rather overconfident party is it possible an upset is on the cards? Very much odds against still but not impossible. Not at all.
Hmmm...that was interesting. Out canvassing in a fairly prosperous part of Blairgowrie today. Tories outnumbering SNP 4 or 5 to 1. Even more hopeful Labour and Lib Dems willing to vote tactically in significant numbers. Apparently some activists from these parties are even helping out.
This should be a seat the SNP should win easily but with a largely absent candidate and a rather overconfident party is it possible an upset is on the cards? Very much odds against still but not impossible. Not at all.
Yes but I don't think they have chosen a candidate yet. It looks like their presence is going to be fairly notional.
Mr Dancer no, but it is the nearest Tory target
Eh etc It wasn't Rosemount but it was to be fair pretty similar territory. Still I had enough depressing days in areas like that in the Referendum with people who really should have known better. Today was not like that.
Mr. Dee, it's my understanding that whilst the swastika as used by the Nazis was only one way, its use by many others (perhaps most famously Hindus) could be either way.
I see Andy Murray has got married in Dunblane Cathedral.Apparently in Scotland it is being treated as the wedding of the year. Find it strange that a couple that have been ‘living in sin’ for over six years end up having a white church wedding. It seems rather hypocritical and it surprises me that the clergy agree to carry out such services the effect of which is to bring the church into disrepute.
I see Andy Murray has got married in Dunblane Cathedral.Apparently in Scotland it is being treated as the wedding of the year. Find it strange that a couple that have been ‘living in sin’ for over six years end up having a white church wedding. It seems rather hypocritical and it surprises me that the clergy agree to carry out such services the effect of which is to bring the church into disrepute.
Pulpstar Index measures what voters think will happen, not how they will vote. According to UK Polling Report it gives Labour 311, Tories 270, accounting for 30 lost Scottish Labour seats only about 10 seats in it
The deficit, he says, should have been reduced “much more”. But the Prime Minister and Chancellor failed to embark on a radical reappraisal of what the state does, given that the Britain they inherited was “bust”. Instead, in a “muddle-headed and sentimental” way they vowed to protect the NHS, education and overseas aid causing “wildly asymmetric cuts”.
Firing on all cylinders now, he turns to defence, claiming that the Armed Forces have been turned into a “mockery”, while the police are being cut back “at exactly the moment when there’s a serious risk of the increase of domestic terrorism. Aspects of local government are being squeezed to the point at which you might as well not bother with a town hall.”
Should the Tories win next month and hold a referendum on the EU, Starkey will probably vote to leave. “We have a very large trade deficit with Europe, we have a decent trade balance with the rest of the world. Is Europe going to cut off its nose to spite its face? It seems to me so infinitely unlikely. There’s no risk. "There would be a risk if we were running a German-style trade surplus with Europe. But we’re not. The problem of our leaving Europe is a problem for the Germans and not us.” So far, so Starkey. But he’s on a roll. Overall, he isn’t impressed by the British political talent currently on offer. “I don’t see anybody around with any prime ministerial qualifications at all.
"Remember, real talent has left politics – for very good reasons. For most of British history a career in politics, a career in what was quaintly called public service, was the height of ambition. It was that which brought you until relatively recently very substantial financial returns. It also brought you enormous returns of prestige. It offered of course, because of empire and so on, the ability to operate upon a world stage. We’re a shrunken country.” Starkey himself was brought up in a council house, the son of a junior foreman and a cleaner. He was born with two club feet that required numerous and “exceedingly painful” operations, thanks to experimental surgery that had been pioneered with injured airmen. http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/celebritynews/11528077/David-Starkey-why-Ed-Miliband-is-poison-and-David-Cameron-muddle-headed.html
Starkey is many things but he is not an economist. Polemicist maybe.
Mr. L, still thinking of voting red to stop the SNP?
Yes. The insuperable problem for me was that waster Jim McGovern (on the front page of the Courier today for being thrown out of a pub; something that takes some doing in Dundee believe me) . Now that he is no longer the candidate I am giving it serious consideration again.
I swuspect this is the point where UKIP becoming a full mainstream party now works against their stated aim. There'll now be people who'll vote in just because UKIP say out.
I think it is in part that.
Outers like Daniel Hannan and Casino Royale of this parish, both have made the point that UKIP and Farage are damaging the out brand.
The kippers will lose because they haven't really done enough groundwork. The CBI and others will pitch in and scare the electorate.
The kippers would be much safer if they pitched the referendum on no further progress to full union which removes all the economic arguments but ultimately will end up at the same end point.
That's why I can't work out why Farage is demanding a referendum this year.
I think Farage is wrong on this but I do see a logic behind it.
If the referendum is this year then there is no way Cameron can make any claims that he has won concessions from the EU. The referendum will be fought on the basis of the EU as it is now take it or leave it.
If the referendum is in 2 years time then that gives Cameron time to claim he has won some sort of concession and renegotiation. It will be garbage of course and the referendum will really be a case of the EU as it is take it or leave it but it gives Cameron the chance to try and fool the public into thinking things can or would be different if we stayed in.
As I said at the start I think Farage is wrong for a whole host of reasons but there are some logical reasons why he might think an early referendum has more chance of an out than a later one.
Thanks for that, it does have a certain logic to it.
Pulpstar Index measures what voters think will happen, not how they will vote. According to UK Polling Report it gives Labour 311, Tories 270, accounting for 30 lost Scottish Labour seats only about 10 seats in it
I swuspect this is the point where UKIP becoming a full mainstream party now works against their stated aim. There'll now be people who'll vote in just because UKIP say out.
I think it is in part that.
Outers like Daniel Hannan and Casino Royale of this parish, both have made the point that UKIP and Farage are damaging the out brand.
The kippers will lose because they haven't really done enough groundwork. The CBI and others will pitch in and scare the electorate.
The kippers would be much safer if they pitched the referendum on no further progress to full union which removes all the economic arguments but ultimately will end up at the same end point.
Agreed.
I agree as well. I want a referendum on the EU, as I want a say on the EU. The last one (on EC membership (not even what we have now) occurred when I was two. There has been enough time since then, and change to the relationship, to make one necessary.
I don't know how I will vote, although I'm veering towards out (if there is a simple in-out choice). This is not due solely to immigration, or finance, or any of the other things that people get worked up about.
It's due to the fact I'm extremely wary of further integration with countries that are far from unified economically or politically. I fear there are really great dangers in heading in that direction. And I also fear that any yes vote on a referendum would just give the Europhiles encouragement to go further down that route.
I'd feel much more comfortable with an 'out' campaign that focussed less on immigration and finances (*) and more on the question: "Do we really want to be heading where they're heading?"
It may not work, but it would appeal to me more.
(*) The former makes outers seem rather unsavoury, and the latter will be argued until no-one knows what the truth is.
Pulpstar Labour plus SNP would still not produce a majority either on the Opinium figures if a few more LDs hold their seats add DUP win 9, UKIP 5 DC is quite likely to form a minority Tory government
I see Andy Murray has got married in Dunblane Cathedral.Apparently in Scotland it is being treated as the wedding of the year. Find it strange that a couple that have been ‘living in sin’ for over six years end up having a white church wedding. It seems rather hypocritical and it surprises me that the clergy agree to carry out such services the effect of which is to bring the church into disrepute.
I see Andy Murray has got married in Dunblane Cathedral.Apparently in Scotland it is being treated as the wedding of the year. Find it strange that a couple that have been ‘living in sin’ for over six years end up having a white church wedding. It seems rather hypocritical and it surprises me that the clergy agree to carry out such services the effect of which is to bring the church into disrepute.
Hmmm...that was interesting. Out canvassing in a fairly prosperous part of Blairgowrie today. Tories outnumbering SNP 4 or 5 to 1. Even more hopeful Labour and Lib Dems willing to vote tactically in significant numbers. Apparently some activists from these parties are even helping out.
This should be a seat the SNP should win easily but with a largely absent candidate and a rather overconfident party is it possible an upset is on the cards? Very much odds against still but not impossible. Not at all.
I swuspect this is the point where UKIP becoming a full mainstream party now works against their stated aim. There'll now be people who'll vote in just because UKIP say out.
I think it is in part that.
Outers like Daniel Hannan and Casino Royale of this parish, both have made the point that UKIP and Farage are damaging the out brand.
The kippers will lose because they haven't really done enough groundwork. The CBI and others will pitch in and scare the electorate.
The kippers would be much safer if they pitched the referendum on no further progress to full union which removes all the economic arguments but ultimately will end up at the same end point.
Agreed.
: "Do we really want to be heading where they're heading?"
It may not work, but it would appeal to me more.
Seconded. I think there are a lot more people who are uneasy about that and would feel comfortable expressing that than issues of immigration and so on.
I see Andy Murray has got married in Dunblane Cathedral.Apparently in Scotland it is being treated as the wedding of the year. Find it strange that a couple that have been ‘living in sin’ for over six years end up having a white church wedding. It seems rather hypocritical and it surprises me that the clergy agree to carry out such services the effect of which is to bring the church into disrepute.
You seem to know more than is healthy about what Mr Murray has been doing with his genitalia over the last 6 years. Is it really your concern?
I see Andy Murray has got married in Dunblane Cathedral.Apparently in Scotland it is being treated as the wedding of the year. Find it strange that a couple that have been ‘living in sin’ for over six years end up having a white church wedding. It seems rather hypocritical and it surprises me that the clergy agree to carry out such services the effect of which is to bring the church into disrepute.
I say good on 'em. Mrs & Mr Murray haven't done anything wrong.
I swuspect this is the point where UKIP becoming a full mainstream party now works against their stated aim. There'll now be people who'll vote in just because UKIP say out.
I think it is in part that.
Outers like Daniel Hannan and Casino Royale of this parish, both have made the point that UKIP and Farage are damaging the out brand.
The kippers will lose because they haven't really done enough groundwork. The CBI and others will pitch in and scare the electorate.
The kippers would be much safer if they pitched the referendum on no further progress to full union which removes all the economic arguments but ultimately will end up at the same end point.
Agreed.
I agree as well. I want a referendum on the EU, as I want a say on the EU. The last one (on EC membership (not even what we have now) occurred when I was two. There has been enough time since then, and change to the relationship, to make one necessary.
I don't know how I will vote, although I'm veering towards out (if there is a simple in-out choice). This is not due solely to immigration, or finance, or any of the other things that people get worked up about.
It's due to the fact I'm extremely wary of further integration with countries that are far from unified economically or politically. I fear there are really great dangers in heading in that direction. And I also fear that any yes vote on a referendum would just give the Europhiles encouragement to go further down that route.
I'd feel much more comfortable with an 'out' campaign that focussed less on immigration and finances (*) and more on the question: "Do we really want to be heading where they're heading?"
It may not work, but it would appeal to me more.
(*) The former makes outers seem rather unsavoury, and the latter will be argued until no-one knows what the truth is.
I'm not sure how I'll vote in an EU referendum, not sure how I'll vote in a month's time. One thing is for sure, I'll never vote Labour. Not in a million years.
I wish Labour would stop referring to the NHS as OUR NHS..They only represent about a third of the population and the rest of us pay for it as well.Labour does not own the NHS
Seconded. I hate that. We all pay for it, it is not Labour's.
Its Labour who have weaponised the NHS. It was the wartime coalition and the Beveridge Report that created it. I thought the recent Labour PPB which blatantly pulled scaremongering heartstrings was a disgrace.
Labour have a real problem now with NHS funding. The conservatives argue that by paying down the debt by 2017-2018 interest payments will be much reduced and growth will be established thereby producing the economic bonus to enable funds to be put into public services and the 8 billion needed by the NHS. Labour do not understand or do not want to understand that if you borrow, spend and tax you delay or even risk the benefit of prudence. Ed Miliband confirmed today that they will not be investing more than the 2.5 billion they have already agreed thereby creating a 5.5 billion shortfall that NHS England have stated they need. This could be a pivotal moment when labour lose the NHS argument by refusing to provide the funds needed
I see Andy Murray has got married in Dunblane Cathedral.Apparently in Scotland it is being treated as the wedding of the year. Find it strange that a couple that have been ‘living in sin’ for over six years end up having a white church wedding. It seems rather hypocritical and it surprises me that the clergy agree to carry out such services the effect of which is to bring the church into disrepute.
They are being married in a Presbyterian church. As such it matters not one jot what the "clergy" thinks they are servants, not masters. Policy is set by elders (lay people). That's why the CoS has always been decades ahead of CoE on most social matters.
The deficit, he says, should have been reduced “much more”. But the Prime Minister and Chancellor failed to embark on a radical reappraisal of what the state does, given that the Britain they inherited was “bust”. Instead, in a “muddle-headed and sentimental” way they vowed to protect the NHS, education and overseas aid causing “wildly asymmetric cuts”.
Firing on all cylinders now, he turns to defence, claiming that the Armed Forces have been turned into a “mockery”, while the police are being cut back “at exactly the moment when there’s a serious risk of the increase of domestic terrorism. Aspects of local government are being squeezed to the point at which you might as well not bother with a town hall.”
Should the Tories win next month and hold a referendum on the EU, Starkey will probably vote to leave. “We have a very large trade deficit with Europe, we have a decent trade balance with the rest of the world. Is Europe going to cut off its nose to spite its face? It seems to me so infinitely unlikely. There’s no risk. "There would be a risk if we were running a German-style trade surplus with Europe. But we’re not. The problem of our leaving Europe is a problem for the Germans and not us.” So far, so Starkey. But he’s on a roll. Overall, he isn’t impressed by the British political talent currently on offer. “I don’t see anybody around with any prime ministerial qualifications at all.
"Remember, real talent has left politics – for very good reasons. For most of British history a career in politics, a career in what was quaintly called public service, was the height of ambition. It was that which brought you until relatively recently very substantial financial returns. It also brought you enormous returns of prestige. It offered of course, because of empire and so on, the ability to operate upon a world stage. We’re a shrunken country.” Starkey himself was brought up in a council house, the son of a junior foreman and a cleaner. He was born with two club feet that required numerous and “exceedingly painful” operations, thanks to experimental surgery that had been pioneered with injured airmen. http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/celebritynews/11528077/David-Starkey-why-Ed-Miliband-is-poison-and-David-Cameron-muddle-headed.html
Starkey is many things but he is not an economist. Polemicist maybe.
You really are the limit! If you were at all in touch with reality then you would not be telling us but filling your boots betting against the 1-50 on odds for the SNP candidate Pete Wishart!
Some of you have made donations privately and confidentially and I have written to you by now, but just to say a big thank you - and to say, too, how much I appreciate being your cartoonist on PB. Ratty is raising a glass to all of you, and promises not to chew quite so many pencils to bits in future.
Comments
April 2015
1,916 Online Interviews (GB Nat. Rep)
1,750 Likely Voters
91 % Turnout xD
I personally think a referendum too soon will be a mistake. Further integration is required if the EU project is to survive. It is clear that there is no appetite for joining a political union so we will have to make a decision sooner or later. Better to make it when the EU is in a terrible mess.
Might have won otherwise.
What is the ICM wisdom index, and is it important if it isn't a proper poll?
"What is the ICM wisdom index, and is it important if it isn't a proper poll?"
It's crap. They ask people who they think will win. Ever heard of anything less scientific? Half the people they ask don't even know who's standing
If tories have some more gooduns tonight they're going to be well happy.
Apart from YG any others coming?
The Wisdom Index was the most accurate poll at the last General Election.
People are asked to predict each party's share of the vote
http://tinyurl.com/UnchainedMel0dy
I can't think of any other mainstream politicians that has quite so vociferously talked about deeply personal issues as losing a child- I recall Brown doing it a bit (and I hated that too).
There must be alot of other politicians with a story to tell- a dead child, spouse, close family member. They all probably keep it private- where it should be kept.
Funnily enough I'd say the biggest advantage the kippers have is the EU itself. The referendum can be led on vote how you feel, they'll always come back to us if they don't like the answer. Best to scare the crap out of them and then negotiate a good deal.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wisdom_of_the_crowd
Also I think UKIP would be happy enough with 12.7%, still would take some doing for the Lib Dems to hit 13.5 though.
Q. Why do you value the NHS, Mr. Cameron?
A. Because of all the help it gave my son.
Seems a very natural response.
So the Wisdom index is more accurate than polling. This year though it may overstate the LD's mind because people are prompted with the last election's result.
I tell you I'm getting really interested in polls- it's fascinating going through the raw detail. I probably have a late development asbergers disorder.
For instance today's Opinium poll has the Tories with a greater lead amongst women. This seems to be against the prevailing mood.
Actually my memory is that Brown didn't and in fact kept a pretty stiff upper lip all the way through. Cameron even allowed a full page photo of his six year old daughter on the front of the Mail. Imagine the stigma of being on the front page of that!
the local branch increased its membership in the post-referendum surge from around 400 to 2,400 – who are bolstering his campaign.
The winner in 2010 only got 14000 votes.
But, that said, it is still very personal to speak of such a loss. And very unBritish.
"Q. Why do you value the NHS, Mr. Cameron?
A. Because of all the help it gave my son."
What a pity he didn't have any relatives in social housing with a spare room
I just want it to be spent more productively than giving an individual a spare room unless they need it. There is too much need to waste resources like that.
If the referendum is this year then there is no way Cameron can make any claims that he has won concessions from the EU. The referendum will be fought on the basis of the EU as it is now take it or leave it.
If the referendum is in 2 years time then that gives Cameron time to claim he has won some sort of concession and renegotiation. It will be garbage of course and the referendum will really be a case of the EU as it is take it or leave it but it gives Cameron the chance to try and fool the public into thinking things can or would be different if we stayed in.
As I said at the start I think Farage is wrong for a whole host of reasons but there are some logical reasons why he might think an early referendum has more chance of an out than a later one.
It's one of those inconvenient truths that Labour PBers wish they could hide.
It is the UKIP figure isn't it. Down to 11% in this poll, where as some other polls have UKIP at 15-18%.
The question is as Cameron put it will they "come home" and how many of them? If I was a Tory, I think I would want them to be pushing the vote Farage get Miliband / Sturgeon and all the uncertainty with that at every opportunity, rather than the god awful "long term economic plan" mantra.
Because if UKIP do get 15%, Tories are stuffed. If they can get UKIP down below 10%, they have some chance.
This should be a seat the SNP should win easily but with a largely absent candidate and a rather overconfident party is it possible an upset is on the cards? Very much odds against still but not impossible. Not at all.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/law-and-order/11530000/Police-investigate-swastika-attack-on-Conservative-party-offices.html
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Perth_and_North_Perthshire_(UK_Parliament_constituency)
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-london-32263174
The stills the plod have released of the heist, it doesn't include a shot of one of the robbers who looks straight into the camera. It is on the Mirror video footage (and the mirror pixelate his face), wonder why?
The millionaire historian says he views the forthcoming General Election with “a degree of modified despair”. But faced with the prospect of an Ed Miliband government, he’ll be voting Tory.
"Especially after our last experience of what a Labour government did, I cannot possibly see how anybody could vote for him.”
He regards Miliband as “poison”, and does not spare him.
“He is a man of high ambition and low talent – the worst possible combination. His whole language at the moment is soak the rich, hate the rich. It’s snide, it’s mean-spirited and, of course, it defies the truth that economies depend on the intelligent, the entrepreneurial, those who were created with money. One may not like it, one may disapprove of it, but all the nice things that we want come essentially from their abilities.
“Labour – like the Tories – have excluded any increases in the principal forms of taxation, the broad line of income tax or the broad line of VAT. We’re being utterly and profoundly dishonest. We’re saying that you can have all the goodies of the welfare state if only you screw a little bit more money out of a few multi-millionaires and ordinary people won’t be affected by it. The truth is that a welfare state of necessity imposes high levels of taxation on ordinary folk.”
The smell of class warfare is nastier on the Labour side, Starkey insists, but the “dishonesty is at least equal” on the Tory side. “We have, in percentage terms, one of the highest peacetime debts we’ve ever had. We are borrowing the equivalent of the cost of the NHS every year. It is totally unsustainable.”
David Cameron and George Osborne between them, Starkey argues, have demonstrated some tactical skill, but a complete absence of strategic thinking. “There have been some areas like education reform and some of the welfare reforms which have been intelligent and possibly far reaching in effect. But all this has been purchased at the cost of not asking big, radical questions.”
Firing on all cylinders now, he turns to defence, claiming that the Armed Forces have been turned into a “mockery”, while the police are being cut back “at exactly the moment when there’s a serious risk of the increase of domestic terrorism. Aspects of local government are being squeezed to the point at which you might as well not bother with a town hall.”
Should the Tories win next month and hold a referendum on the EU, Starkey will probably vote to leave. “We have a very large trade deficit with Europe, we have a decent trade balance with the rest of the world. Is Europe going to cut off its nose to spite its face? It seems to me so infinitely unlikely. There’s no risk.
"There would be a risk if we were running a German-style trade surplus with Europe. But we’re not. The problem of our leaving Europe is a problem for the Germans and not us.”
So far, so Starkey. But he’s on a roll. Overall, he isn’t impressed by the British political talent currently on offer. “I don’t see anybody around with any prime ministerial qualifications at all.
"Remember, real talent has left politics – for very good reasons. For most of British history a career in politics, a career in what was quaintly called public service, was the height of ambition. It was that which brought you until relatively recently very substantial financial returns. It also brought you enormous returns of prestige. It offered of course, because of empire and so on, the ability to operate upon a world stage. We’re a shrunken country.”
Starkey himself was brought up in a council house, the son of a junior foreman and a cleaner. He was born with two club feet that required numerous and “exceedingly painful” operations, thanks to experimental surgery that had been pioneered with injured airmen.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/celebritynews/11528077/David-Starkey-why-Ed-Miliband-is-poison-and-David-Cameron-muddle-headed.html
http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2013/jan/23/david-cameron-uk-exemption-eu
There will be no further progress by Britain to full union, which is why we need a referendum to agree to any new status within the EU.
"But in the end the choice will not be for the politicians. The choice will be for the British people. The fact is we are not comfortable with the state of our membership today. It does need to change. I am setting out the path for how we change that, how we put that to the British people and in the end they will decide.''
And even if there was any agreement by Britain to full union there would have to be a referendum to ratify it.
Frank Roy will lose.
Is it racing horses or a Tory trying to stick his head up Labour's arse ?
https://yournextmp.com/constituency/14451/perth-and-north-perthshire
Alas the SNP will do nowhere near as well as is predicted in the GE because on the big stage you're too wee to matter.
Mr Dancer no, but it is the nearest Tory target
Eh etc It wasn't Rosemount but it was to be fair pretty similar territory. Still I had enough depressing days in areas like that in the Referendum with people who really should have known better. Today was not like that.
Disclaimer: I am not Hindu.
Or a Nazi.
I see Andy Murray has got married in Dunblane Cathedral.Apparently in Scotland it is being treated as the wedding of the year. Find it strange that a couple that have been ‘living in sin’ for over six years end up having a white church wedding. It seems rather hypocritical and it surprises me that the clergy agree to carry out such services the effect of which is to bring the church into disrepute.
Opinium gives Tory 300, Labour 311, so with Scotland Tory 300, Labour 281, LD 11
http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/swing-calculator
https://yougov.co.uk/#/constituency/594/nowcast/
I don't know how I will vote, although I'm veering towards out (if there is a simple in-out choice). This is not due solely to immigration, or finance, or any of the other things that people get worked up about.
It's due to the fact I'm extremely wary of further integration with countries that are far from unified economically or politically. I fear there are really great dangers in heading in that direction. And I also fear that any yes vote on a referendum would just give the Europhiles encouragement to go further down that route.
I'd feel much more comfortable with an 'out' campaign that focussed less on immigration and finances (*) and more on the question: "Do we really want to be heading where they're heading?"
It may not work, but it would appeal to me more.
(*) The former makes outers seem rather unsavoury, and the latter will be argued until no-one knows what the truth is.
Take your pick. (I'd say all three).
You really are the limit! If you were at all in touch with reality then you would not be telling us but filling your boots betting against the 1-50 on odds for the SNP candidate Pete Wishart!