If the General Election is most noticed news item, then unlikely to be a holiday effect in the polls and Labour's nip into the lead (on average) is genuine.
The interesting thing is that only 24% have noticed it.
Think about that - the GE is the lead story on every TV news programme, on the front page of most newspapers every day, the lead story on news websites almost continuously and ........
76% haven't noticed it!
And we worry about some stupid question or answer at PMQs or a MoE movement in a poll.
As Mike says, a useful reality check.
You are making an assumption that people watch TV news. I bet news broadcasts in the UK don't get great ratings, much as they don't here.
In fact they do rate highly. Top 10 programmes on Wednesday:
1 ITV - 07:30 PM Coronation Street 7106 37.0% 2 ITV - 07:00 PM Emmerdale 5859 33.0% 3 BBC One - 08:00 PM MasterChef 4798 24.0% 4 BBC One - 06:30 PM Regional News and Weather 4686 30.0% 5 BBC One - 06:00 PM BBC News at Six 4098 29.0% 6 BBC One - 10:00 PM BBC News at Ten 4014 23.0% 7 ITV - 09:00 PM DCI Banks 3925 19.0% 8 BBC One - 09:00 PM Secret Britain 3897 19.0% 9 BBC One - 10:30 PM Regional News and Weather 3409 23.0% 10 ITV - 08:00 PM Big Star's Little Star 3372 17.0% See more at: http://www.itvmedia.co.uk/#sthash.cCJGdIk7.dpuf
Actually more Con seats than Lab seats is probably a bet you still want to be on the Labour side of - if Edinburgh South, Glasgow NE and Renfrewshire East all drop then Mundell is most likely toast anyway.
If the General Election is most noticed news item, then unlikely to be a holiday effect in the polls and Labour's nip into the lead (on average) is genuine.
The interesting thing is that only 24% have noticed it.
Think about that - the GE is the lead story on every TV news programme, on the front page of most newspapers every day, the lead story on news websites almost continuously and ........
76% haven't noticed it!
And we worry about some stupid question or answer at PMQs or a MoE movement in a poll.
As Mike says, a useful reality check.
You are making an assumption that people watch TV news. I bet news broadcasts in the UK don't get great ratings, much as they don't here.
I'm the wrong man to ask - I haven't watched the networks - CBS, NBC, ABC and Fox in 30 years. If I hear something good about a show, I'll get the dvds from Netflix.
Must stuff I watch these days is from cable channels, via my dvr, to space through the 16 minutes of commercials per hour.
I've only caught a bit of the coverage - but it has Hollywood Blockbuster written all over it as a heist. Sky tried to drill through as many inches of concrete this morning and got nowhere. It really did take the whole Easter weekend to do it.
It is already a (rather good) film with Jason Statham.
If the General Election is most noticed news item, then unlikely to be a holiday effect in the polls and Labour's nip into the lead (on average) is genuine.
The interesting thing is that only 24% have noticed it.
Think about that - the GE is the lead story on every TV news programme, on the front page of most newspapers every day, the lead story on news websites almost continuously and ........
76% haven't noticed it!
And we worry about some stupid question or answer at PMQs or a MoE movement in a poll.
As Mike says, a useful reality check.
You are making an assumption that people watch TV news. I bet news broadcasts in the UK don't get great ratings, much as they don't here.
In fact they do rate highly. Top 10 programmes on Wednesday:
1 ITV - 07:30 PM Coronation Street 7106 37.0% 2 ITV - 07:00 PM Emmerdale 5859 33.0% 3 BBC One - 08:00 PM MasterChef 4798 24.0% 4 BBC One - 06:30 PM Regional News and Weather 4686 30.0% 5 BBC One - 06:00 PM BBC News at Six 4098 29.0% 6 BBC One - 10:00 PM BBC News at Ten 4014 23.0% 7 ITV - 09:00 PM DCI Banks 3925 19.0% 8 BBC One - 09:00 PM Secret Britain 3897 19.0% 9 BBC One - 10:30 PM Regional News and Weather 3409 23.0% 10 ITV - 08:00 PM Big Star's Little Star 3372 17.0% See more at: http://www.itvmedia.co.uk/#sthash.cCJGdIk7.dpuf
That's certainly different from the US. Also not a single show is a cable show. I have no idea what regional news means - which region? The most popular news show is #5, watched by fewer than 3 out of 10 people. I'd hardly call that 'highly' rated. #6 is falling towards 2 out of 10 viewers.
If the General Election is most noticed news item, then unlikely to be a holiday effect in the polls and Labour's nip into the lead (on average) is genuine.
The interesting thing is that only 24% have noticed it.
Think about that - the GE is the lead story on every TV news programme, on the front page of most newspapers every day, the lead story on news websites almost continuously and ........
76% haven't noticed it!
And we worry about some stupid question or answer at PMQs or a MoE movement in a poll.
As Mike says, a useful reality check.
You are making an assumption that people watch TV news. I bet news broadcasts in the UK don't get great ratings, much as they don't here.
I'm the wrong man to ask - I haven't watched the networks - CBS, NBC, ABC and Fox in 30 years. If I hear something good about a show, I'll get the dvds from Netflix.
Must stuff I watch these days is from cable channels, via my dvr, to space through the 16 minutes of commercials per hour.
May be too busy to post tomorrow so I'll give my Grand National selection now - Spring Heeled at 22/1 with Hills.
As both my loyal readers will be aware, I cannot possibly improve on last year's selection but hope to equal it.
Good luck, etc...
Cheers.
He is 20s at Bet Victor, but they are paying 6 places.
£10 E/W for me.
The favourite "Shutthefrontdoor" is 15-2 which is utterly, utterly crazily short for the National I note.
Yes, objectively it's a rotten price and we all know why.
Apparently some of the big bookmakers will have to give a profits warning if it wins. Might be good long-term for racing but short-term it's a nitemare for the layers.
A lady-jockey winning would also be pretty sensational and Nina Carberry has the ability and a horse good enough to do it. First Lieutenant has been well-backed but 25/1 still looks fairly decent odds, and would be my second pick.
If the General Election is most noticed news item, then unlikely to be a holiday effect in the polls and Labour's nip into the lead (on average) is genuine.
The interesting thing is that only 24% have noticed it.
Think about that - the GE is the lead story on every TV news programme, on the front page of most newspapers every day, the lead story on news websites almost continuously and ........
76% haven't noticed it!
And we worry about some stupid question or answer at PMQs or a MoE movement in a poll.
As Mike says, a useful reality check.
You are making an assumption that people watch TV news. I bet news broadcasts in the UK don't get great ratings, much as they don't here.
In fact they do rate highly. Top 10 programmes on Wednesday:
1 ITV - 07:30 PM Coronation Street 7106 37.0% 2 ITV - 07:00 PM Emmerdale 5859 33.0% 3 BBC One - 08:00 PM MasterChef 4798 24.0% 4 BBC One - 06:30 PM Regional News and Weather 4686 30.0% 5 BBC One - 06:00 PM BBC News at Six 4098 29.0% 6 BBC One - 10:00 PM BBC News at Ten 4014 23.0% 7 ITV - 09:00 PM DCI Banks 3925 19.0% 8 BBC One - 09:00 PM Secret Britain 3897 19.0% 9 BBC One - 10:30 PM Regional News and Weather 3409 23.0% 10 ITV - 08:00 PM Big Star's Little Star 3372 17.0% See more at: http://www.itvmedia.co.uk/#sthash.cCJGdIk7.dpuf
That's certainly different from the US. Also not a single show is a cable show. I have no idea what regional news means - which region? The most popular news show is #5, watched by fewer than 3 out of 10 people. I'd hardly call that 'highly' rated. #6 is falling towards 2 out of 10 viewers.
Sure - I just meant highly rated compared to other programmes - of course it is a small proportion of the total population.
The Regional News rating is the sum of all regions - BBC1 will show Regional News in each region (UK split into about 12 different regions) at that time - that is the total watching across the UK.
I've only caught a bit of the coverage - but it has Hollywood Blockbuster written all over it as a heist. Sky tried to drill through as many inches of concrete this morning and got nowhere. It really did take the whole Easter weekend to do it.
It is already a (rather good) film with Jason Statham.
May be too busy to post tomorrow so I'll give my Grand National selection now - Spring Heeled at 22/1 with Hills.
As both my loyal readers will be aware, I cannot possibly improve on last year's selection but hope to equal it.
Good luck, etc...
Cheers.
He is 20s at Bet Victor, but they are paying 6 places.
£10 E/W for me.
The favourite "Shutthefrontdoor" is 15-2 which is utterly, utterly crazily short for the National I note.
Yes, objectively it's a rotten price and we all know why.
Apparently some of the big bookmakers will have to give a profits warning if it wins. Might be good long-term for racing but short-term it's a nitemare for the layers.
A lady-jockey winning would also be pretty sensational and Nina Carberry has the ability and a horse good enough to do it. First Lieutenant has been well-backed but 25/1 still looks fairly decent odds, and would be my second pick.
If the General Election wasn't just round the corner I'd probably just lay it outright on Betfair tbh.
Is it really so short just because it's McCoy's final ride or is there some other reason ?
Don't know why it's a nightmare for layers... would have thought they'd welcome cash on it.
Tories desperately trying to liberate pandas from Edinburgh Zoo
132 elected Tories in Scotland!!!
The Scottish Conservative vote looks like it could be one of the most hopelessly inefficient ever at this GE.
With Ed getting 5 years as PM on the back of a probably equal par vote share with (or probably slightly less than) the Tories, I suspect I won't be the only Tory supporting electoral reform after May 7th.
I think FPTP is now a dead duck, and this will be its last GE (unless we end up having a second GE in 2015 or in 2016).
Given the split that now exists on the Right, those of us of a centre-right inclination NEED electoral reform to happen in order not to be disenfranchised from UK politics for possibly the rest of our lives!
If the General Election is most noticed news item, then unlikely to be a holiday effect in the polls and Labour's nip into the lead (on average) is genuine.
The interesting thing is that only 24% have noticed it.
Think about that - the GE is the lead story on every TV news programme, on the front page of most newspapers every day, the lead story on news websites almost continuously and ........
76% haven't noticed it!
And we worry about some stupid question or answer at PMQs or a MoE movement in a poll.
As Mike says, a useful reality check.
You are making an assumption that people watch TV news. I bet news broadcasts in the UK don't get great ratings, much as they don't here.
I'm the wrong man to ask - I haven't watched the networks - CBS, NBC, ABC and Fox in 30 years. If I hear something good about a show, I'll get the dvds from Netflix.
Must stuff I watch these days is from cable channels, via my dvr, to space through the 16 minutes of commercials per hour.
I have a XiaoMi box bought in Beijing (about the size of 2 cigarette packets). It needs a cable or wifi connection to the internet, a hi-definition cable to the TV and comes with a remote control. You can watch anything. TV series, films, live news, etc from any country. It's amazing. I saw the debates on Sky News for example. The only drawback is that you have to navigate the menus in Chinese. But this clearly the future of TV - watch WTF you want from anywhere when you want to over the internet.
I've only caught a bit of the coverage - but it has Hollywood Blockbuster written all over it as a heist. Sky tried to drill through as many inches of concrete this morning and got nowhere. It really did take the whole Easter weekend to do it.
It is already a (rather good) film with Jason Statham.
1 ITV2 - 08:00 PM Skyfall 1009 5.3% 2 BT Sport 1 - 07:00 PM Live Blackburn Rovers v Liverpool 680 3.4% 3 E4 - 07:00 PM Hollyoaks 612 3.5% 4 BBC Three - 09:00 PM Enemy of the State 563 3.1% 5 BBC Three - 11:05 PM Family Guy 561 6.3% 6 ITV3 - 08:00 PM Rosemary and Thyme 550 2.8% 7 E4 - 06:30 PM The Big Bang Theory 507 3.2% 8 BBC Three - 11:30 PM Family Guy 498 7.1% 9 5* - 06:30 PM Home and Away 445 28.0% 10 BBC Four - 09:00 PM Treasures of Ancient Greece 432 2.1% See more at: http://www.itvmedia.co.uk/#sthash.cCJGdIk7.dpuf
All tiny compared to BBC1 and ITV1. In summary BBC1 and ITV1 rate a million miles ahead of all other channels 95% of the time.
If the General Election is most noticed news item, then unlikely to be a holiday effect in the polls and Labour's nip into the lead (on average) is genuine.
The interesting thing is that only 24% have noticed it.
Think about that - the GE is the lead story on every TV news programme, on the front page of most newspapers every day, the lead story on news websites almost continuously and ........
76% haven't noticed it!
And we worry about some stupid question or answer at PMQs or a MoE movement in a poll.
As Mike says, a useful reality check.
You are making an assumption that people watch TV news. I bet news broadcasts in the UK don't get great ratings, much as they don't here.
In fact they do rate highly. Top 10 programmes on Wednesday:
1 ITV - 07:30 PM Coronation Street 7106 37.0% 2 ITV - 07:00 PM Emmerdale 5859 33.0% 3 BBC One - 08:00 PM MasterChef 4798 24.0% 4 BBC One - 06:30 PM Regional News and Weather 4686 30.0% 5 BBC One - 06:00 PM BBC News at Six 4098 29.0% 6 BBC One - 10:00 PM BBC News at Ten 4014 23.0% 7 ITV - 09:00 PM DCI Banks 3925 19.0% 8 BBC One - 09:00 PM Secret Britain 3897 19.0% 9 BBC One - 10:30 PM Regional News and Weather 3409 23.0% 10 ITV - 08:00 PM Big Star's Little Star 3372 17.0% See more at: http://www.itvmedia.co.uk/#sthash.cCJGdIk7.dpuf
That's certainly different from the US. Also not a single show is a cable show. I have no idea what regional news means - which region? The most popular news show is #5, watched by fewer than 3 out of 10 people. I'd hardly call that 'highly' rated. #6 is falling towards 2 out of 10 viewers.
Sure - I just meant highly rated compared to other programmes - of course it is a small proportion of the total population.
The Regional News rating is the sum of all regions - BBC1 will show Regional News in each region (UK split into about 12 different regions) at that time - that is the total watching across the UK.
That regional news thing is a crock - that's 12 different shows!
Can somebody please explain what the hell the Tories are doing with this paid leave for volunteering pledge?
I don't exactly know who it's appealing to, but if the Tories carry on with this bland, uninspiring, non-campaign I'll increasingly be un-arsed if they do lose!
As things stand, you'd have to say Ed deserves his crack at it because he at least is offering some sort of vision and prospectus for power, flawed though it is...
Can somebody please explain what the hell the Tories are doing with this paid leave for volunteering pledge?
I don't exactly know who it's appealing to, but if the Tories carry on with this bland, uninspiring, non-campaign I'll increasingly be un-arsed if they do lose!
As things stand, you'd have to say Ed deserves his crack at it because he at least is offering some sort of vision and prospectus for power, flawed though it is...
1 ITV2 - 08:00 PM Skyfall 1009 5.3% 2 BT Sport 1 - 07:00 PM Live Blackburn Rovers v Liverpool 680 3.4% 3 E4 - 07:00 PM Hollyoaks 612 3.5% 4 BBC Three - 09:00 PM Enemy of the State 563 3.1% 5 BBC Three - 11:05 PM Family Guy 561 6.3% 6 ITV3 - 08:00 PM Rosemary and Thyme 550 2.8% 7 E4 - 06:30 PM The Big Bang Theory 507 3.2% 8 BBC Three - 11:30 PM Family Guy 498 7.1% 9 5* - 06:30 PM Home and Away 445 28.0% 10 BBC Four - 09:00 PM Treasures of Ancient Greece 432 2.1% See more at: http://www.itvmedia.co.uk/#sthash.cCJGdIk7.dpuf
All tiny compared to BBC1 and ITV1. In summary BBC1 and ITV1 rate a million miles ahead of all other channels 95% of the time.
That's very different to the US. From what I remember, cable or satellite - Sky etc - is in a minority of homes in the UK. Here it's in pretty much all of them. It's just another monthly utility bill, along with phone, gas and electric.
However - like everything else - it's cheaper here. With my latest annual increase, my DirecTV sub is almost as much as I paid for Sky in the UK a decade ago.
''Yes got 45%, and around that proportion are planning on voting for the SNP.''
That being the case Mr Morris, you have to wonder if the 55 wouldn;t be better off consolidating around one party. Ruth Davidson is extremely impressive.
Maybe 7 seats isn't out of the question. Get Dave up there now!
Davidson may well be impressive to the MSM and many PBers, however she doesn't impress the Scottish electorate, nor does Murphy. The more we see of Milliband and Cameron in Scotland, the SNP will benefit.
Could the LibDems get 5 Scottish seats, as Moneyweek is predicting?
Probably not.
But if they did, which would be the five?
I'd go for:
1. Orkney & Shetland 2. Caithness, Sutherland and Easter Ross 3. Ross, Skye and Lochebar 4. Inverness & Nairn 5. Gordon
Why?
Well, despite the views of some of the Nats on here, I think Alistair Carmichael has a strong personal vote, and the SNP did very poorly in O&S. Scotland-gate resonates with... people who would have voted Nationalist anyway, so I think it will have a much smaller effect than people think.
Viscount Thurso has tirelessly worked Caithness, and is genuinely popular. He is probably the only LibDem who will pick up some (grudging) "yes" voters. Although he is notionally less safe than Charles Kennedy, I think he is more likely to win his seat.
I suspect Charles Kennedy will lose on the night. He is yesterday's man, and I think he will soon be out of a job. But, if the LibDems did get five Scottish seats, this would be one.
Inverness. What am I thinking? I think Danny will benefit from Conservative tactical voting, and will hold more of his LibDem base than some. The ire of the Nats is so great, I wonder if he might just hold on. (I've not actually bet on him, even at current odds. But I do wonder...)
Gordon. Gordon??? If there is one thing that might motivate anti-SNP tactical voting it's Alex Salmond. I therefore cautiously make that the fifth improbable LibDem hold in Scotland.
If the General Election is most noticed news item, then unlikely to be a holiday effect in the polls and Labour's nip into the lead (on average) is genuine.
The interesting thing is that only 24% have noticed it.
Think about that - the GE is the lead story on every TV news programme, on the front page of most newspapers every day, the lead story on news websites almost continuously and ........
76% haven't noticed it!
And we worry about some stupid question or answer at PMQs or a MoE movement in a poll.
As Mike says, a useful reality check.
You are making an assumption that people watch TV news. I bet news broadcasts in the UK don't get great ratings, much as they don't here.
I'm the wrong man to ask - I haven't watched the networks - CBS, NBC, ABC and Fox in 30 years. If I hear something good about a show, I'll get the dvds from Netflix.
Must stuff I watch these days is from cable channels, via my dvr, to space through the 16 minutes of commercials per hour.
Could the LibDems get 5 Scottish seats, as Moneyweek is predicting?
Probably not.
But if they did, which would be the five?
I'd go for:
1. Orkney & Shetland 2. Caithness, Sutherland and Easter Ross 3. Ross, Skye and Lochebar 4. Inverness & Nairn 5. Gordon
Why?
Well, despite the views of some of the Nats on here, I think Alistair Carmichael has a strong personal vote, and the SNP did very poorly in O&S. Scotland-gate resonates with... people who would have voted Nationalist anyway, so I think it will have a much smaller effect than people think.
Viscount Thurso has tirelessly worked Caithness, and is genuinely popular. He is probably the only LibDem who will pick up some (grudging) "yes" voters. Although he is notionally less safe than Charles Kennedy, I think he is more likely to win his seat.
I suspect Charles Kennedy will lose on the night. He is yesterday's man, and I think he will soon be out of a job. But, if the LibDems did get five Scottish seats, this would be one.
Inverness. What am I thinking? I think Danny will benefit from Conservative tactical voting, and will hold more of his LibDem base than some. The ire of the Nats is so great, I wonder if he might just hold on. (I've not actually bet on him, even at current odds. But I do wonder...)
Gordon. Gordon??? If there is one thing that might motivate anti-SNP tactical voting it's Alex Salmond. I therefore cautiously make that the fifth improbable LibDem hold in Scotland.
I'd switch Gordon and Inverness, possibly Edinburgh West in the mix too...
Could the LibDems get 5 Scottish seats, as Moneyweek is predicting?
Probably not.
But if they did, which would be the five?
I'd go for:
1. Orkney & Shetland 2. Caithness, Sutherland and Easter Ross 3. Ross, Skye and Lochebar 4. Inverness & Nairn 5. Gordon
Why?
Well, despite the views of some of the Nats on here, I think Alistair Carmichael has a strong personal vote, and the SNP did very poorly in O&S. Scotland-gate resonates with... people who would have voted Nationalist anyway, so I think it will have a much smaller effect than people think.
Viscount Thurso has tirelessly worked Caithness, and is genuinely popular. He is probably the only LibDem who will pick up some (grudging) "yes" voters. Although he is notionally less safe than Charles Kennedy, I think he is more likely to win his seat.
I suspect Charles Kennedy will lose on the night. He is yesterday's man, and I think he will soon be out of a job. But, if the LibDems did get five Scottish seats, this would be one.
Inverness. What am I thinking? I think Danny will benefit from Conservative tactical voting, and will hold more of his LibDem base than some. The ire of the Nats is so great, I wonder if he might just hold on. (I've not actually bet on him, even at current odds. But I do wonder...)
Gordon. Gordon??? If there is one thing that might motivate anti-SNP tactical voting it's Alex Salmond. I therefore cautiously make that the fifth improbable LibDem hold in Scotland.
Some Lib Dems think they could hold Roxburgh/Berwickshire.
Can somebody please explain what the hell the Tories are doing with this paid leave for volunteering pledge?
I don't exactly know who it's appealing to, but if the Tories carry on with this bland, uninspiring, non-campaign I'll increasingly be un-arsed if they do lose!
As things stand, you'd have to say Ed deserves his crack at it because he at least is offering some sort of vision and prospectus for power, flawed though it is...
At the moment, David Cameron gives no impression that he even cares whether or not he wins. Ed Milliband does care.
Tories desperately trying to liberate pandas from Edinburgh Zoo
132 elected Tories in Scotland!!!
The Scottish Conservative vote looks like it could be one of the most hopelessly inefficient ever at this GE.
I think FPTP is now a dead duck, and this will be its last GE (unless we end up having a second GE in 2015 or in 2016).
I've heard that guff at every election since 1979...
Listening to BBC World Service this morning while getting up, they had a guy on called Curtis (?) from Strathclyde something or other saying the UK has not been a 2 party system since 1974. No idea who this guy is, but it was certainly food for thought.
Tories desperately trying to liberate pandas from Edinburgh Zoo
132 elected Tories in Scotland!!!
The Scottish Conservative vote looks like it could be one of the most hopelessly inefficient ever at this GE.
I think FPTP is now a dead duck, and this will be its last GE (unless we end up having a second GE in 2015 or in 2016).
I've heard that guff at every election since 1979...
Listening to BBC World Service this morning while getting up, they had a guy on called Curtis (?) from Strathclyde something or other saying the UK has not been a 2 party system since 1974. No idea who this guy is, but it was certainly food for thought.
Scotland: could tactical voting dent SNP’s election prospects?
So The Times’ YouGov poll gives this result:
SNP 53 seats
Lab 4
LD 1
Con 1
With tactical voting questions asked in the Channel 4 News/YouGov poll you get this result:
SNP 42
Lab 13
LD 3
Con 1
The seats Labour would save if tactical voting worked along the lines suggested by our poll would often be ones with relatively marginal Labour leads in 2010. Bizarrely, the way the Labour vote has collapsed in its heartlands, seats with mind-bogglingly large majorities are more vulnerable than marginal ones where middle class supporters of the Tories (and the Lib Dems where they still exist) could save a Labour MP’s bacon.
I've an MX box that does much the same - honestly - it's a problem trying to plug all my bits of liquorice into my TV even wirelessly. I've two wifi keyboards to control the smart tv and my MX box. And that's not counting the Humax box. The DVD player is a poor relation.
If the General Election is most noticed news item, then unlikely to be a holiday effect in the polls and Labour's nip into the lead (on average) is genuine.
The interesting thing is that only 24% have noticed it.
Think about that - the GE is the lead story on every TV news programme, on the front page of most newspapers every day, the lead story on news websites almost continuously and ........
76% haven't noticed it!
And we worry about some stupid question or answer at PMQs or a MoE movement in a poll.
As Mike says, a useful reality check.
You are making an assumption that people watch TV news. I bet news broadcasts in the UK don't get great ratings, much as they don't here.
I'm the wrong man to ask - I haven't watched the networks - CBS, NBC, ABC and Fox in 30 years. If I hear something good about a show, I'll get the dvds from Netflix.
Must stuff I watch these days is from cable channels, via my dvr, to space through the 16 minutes of commercials per hour.
I have a XiaoMi box bought in Beijing (about the size of 2 cigarette packets). It needs a cable or wifi connection to the internet, a hi-definition cable to the TV and comes with a remote control. You can watch anything. TV series, films, live news, etc from any country. It's amazing. I saw the debates on Sky News for example. The only drawback is that you have to navigate the menus in Chinese. But this clearly the future of TV - watch WTF you want from anywhere when you want to over the internet.
Can somebody please explain what the hell the Tories are doing with this paid leave for volunteering pledge?
I don't exactly know who it's appealing to, but if the Tories carry on with this bland, uninspiring, non-campaign I'll increasingly be un-arsed if they do lose!
As things stand, you'd have to say Ed deserves his crack at it because he at least is offering some sort of vision and prospectus for power, flawed though it is...
At the moment, David Cameron gives no impression that he even cares whether or not he wins. Ed Milliband does care.
It's the Young Mister Grace strategy.
Get wheeled around by a young woman and wave saying "you've all done very well"
Can somebody please explain what the hell the Tories are doing with this paid leave for volunteering pledge?
I don't exactly know who it's appealing to, but if the Tories carry on with this bland, uninspiring, non-campaign I'll increasingly be un-arsed if they do lose!
As things stand, you'd have to say Ed deserves his crack at it because he at least is offering some sort of vision and prospectus for power, flawed though it is...
At the moment, David Cameron gives no impression that he even cares whether or not he wins. Ed Milliband does care.
It's the Young Mister Grace strategy.
Get wheeled around by a young woman and wave saying "you've all done very well"
Mr. Eagles, differential turnout might harm Labour. I'd guess there's far more enthusiasm for SNP voters than there are for potential Scottish Labour voters [Miliband is not the most popular leader Labour's ever had when it comes to the Scots].
Scotland: could tactical voting dent SNP’s election prospects?
So The Times’ YouGov poll gives this result:
SNP 53 seats
Lab 4
LD 1
Con 1
With tactical voting questions asked in the Channel 4 News/YouGov poll you get this result:
SNP 42
Lab 13
LD 3
Con 1
The seats Labour would save if tactical voting worked along the lines suggested by our poll would often be ones with relatively marginal Labour leads in 2010. Bizarrely, the way the Labour vote has collapsed in its heartlands, seats with mind-bogglingly large majorities are more vulnerable than marginal ones where middle class supporters of the Tories (and the Lib Dems where they still exist) could save a Labour MP’s bacon.
I've an MX box that does much the same - honestly - it's a problem trying to plug all my bits of liquorice into my TV even wirelessly. I've two wifi keyboards to control the smart tv and my MX box. And that's not counting the Humax box. The DVD player is a poor relation.
If the General Election is most noticed news item, then unlikely to be a holiday effect in the polls and Labour's nip into the lead (on average) is genuine.
The interesting thing is that only 24% have noticed it.
Think about that - the GE is the lead story on every TV news programme, on the front page of most newspapers every day, the lead story on news websites almost continuously and ........
76% haven't noticed it!
And we worry about some stupid question or answer at PMQs or a MoE movement in a poll.
As Mike says, a useful reality check.
You are making an assumption that people watch TV news. I bet news broadcasts in the UK don't get great ratings, much as they don't here.
I'm the wrong man to ask - I haven't watched the networks - CBS, NBC, ABC and Fox in 30 years. If I hear something good about a show, I'll get the dvds from Netflix.
Must stuff I watch these days is from cable channels, via my dvr, to space through the 16 minutes of commercials per hour.
I have a XiaoMi box bought in Beijing (about the size of 2 cigarette packets). It needs a cable or wifi connection to the internet, a hi-definition cable to the TV and comes with a remote control. You can watch anything. TV series, films, live news, etc from any country. It's amazing. I saw the debates on Sky News for example. The only drawback is that you have to navigate the menus in Chinese. But this clearly the future of TV - watch WTF you want from anywhere when you want to over the internet.
I have a satellite dvr, a dvd recorder, a dvd player, and an amazon fire TV connected to my receiver, with a 7.1 sound system. More content than I could ever consume.
BBC America gives me access to all the UK content I would ever need, and frankly most of it is woeful.
Tories desperately trying to liberate pandas from Edinburgh Zoo
132 elected Tories in Scotland!!!
The Scottish Conservative vote looks like it could be one of the most hopelessly inefficient ever at this GE.
With Ed getting 5 years as PM on the back of a probably equal par vote share with (or probably slightly less than) the Tories, I suspect I won't be the only Tory supporting electoral reform after May 7th.
I think FPTP is now a dead duck, and this will be its last GE (unless we end up having a second GE in 2015 or in 2016).
Given the split that now exists on the Right, those of us of a centre-right inclination NEED electoral reform to happen in order not to be disenfranchised from UK politics for possibly the rest of our lives!
Is that the distant clip-clop of the bolting horse to be heard beneath the squeak of the stable door being bolted?
Scotland: could tactical voting dent SNP’s election prospects?
So The Times’ YouGov poll gives this result:
SNP 53 seats
Lab 4
LD 1
Con 1
With tactical voting questions asked in the Channel 4 News/YouGov poll you get this result:
SNP 42
Lab 13
LD 3
Con 1
The seats Labour would save if tactical voting worked along the lines suggested by our poll would often be ones with relatively marginal Labour leads in 2010. Bizarrely, the way the Labour vote has collapsed in its heartlands, seats with mind-bogglingly large majorities are more vulnerable than marginal ones where middle class supporters of the Tories (and the Lib Dems where they still exist) could save a Labour MP’s bacon.
Scotland: could tactical voting dent SNP’s election prospects?
So The Times’ YouGov poll gives this result:
SNP 53 seats
Lab 4
LD 1
Con 1
With tactical voting questions asked in the Channel 4 News/YouGov poll you get this result:
SNP 42
Lab 13
LD 3
Con 1
The seats Labour would save if tactical voting worked along the lines suggested by our poll would often be ones with relatively marginal Labour leads in 2010. Bizarrely, the way the Labour vote has collapsed in its heartlands, seats with mind-bogglingly large majorities are more vulnerable than marginal ones where middle class supporters of the Tories (and the Lib Dems where they still exist) could save a Labour MP’s bacon.
Tories desperately trying to liberate pandas from Edinburgh Zoo
132 elected Tories in Scotland!!!
The Scottish Conservative vote looks like it could be one of the most hopelessly inefficient ever at this GE.
I think FPTP is now a dead duck, and this will be its last GE (unless we end up having a second GE in 2015 or in 2016).
I've heard that guff at every election since 1979...
It will only change when those in power see it as being to their advantage, say for example when a Labour party sees it's heartlands turning against it in droves ;-).
Another good article on the pseudo event that the general election campaign has become. All the senior politicians are running scared of the electorate.
Scotland: could tactical voting dent SNP’s election prospects?
So The Times’ YouGov poll gives this result:
SNP 53 seats
Lab 4
LD 1
Con 1
With tactical voting questions asked in the Channel 4 News/YouGov poll you get this result:
SNP 42
Lab 13
LD 3
Con 1
The seats Labour would save if tactical voting worked along the lines suggested by our poll would often be ones with relatively marginal Labour leads in 2010. Bizarrely, the way the Labour vote has collapsed in its heartlands, seats with mind-bogglingly large majorities are more vulnerable than marginal ones where middle class supporters of the Tories (and the Lib Dems where they still exist) could save a Labour MP’s bacon.
Can somebody please explain what the hell the Tories are doing with this paid leave for volunteering pledge?
I don't exactly know who it's appealing to, but if the Tories carry on with this bland, uninspiring, non-campaign I'll increasingly be un-arsed if they do lose!
As things stand, you'd have to say Ed deserves his crack at it because he at least is offering some sort of vision and prospectus for power, flawed though it is...
At the moment, David Cameron gives no impression that he even cares whether or not he wins. Ed Milliband does care.
It's the Young Mister Grace strategy.
Get wheeled around by a young woman and wave saying "you've all done very well"
So who is Mrs Slocombe?
Yvette Cooper, she has to go home every night and spend time with a big pussy.
Scotland: could tactical voting dent SNP’s election prospects?
So The Times’ YouGov poll gives this result:
SNP 53 seats
Lab 4
LD 1
Con 1
With tactical voting questions asked in the Channel 4 News/YouGov poll you get this result:
SNP 42
Lab 13
LD 3
Con 1
The seats Labour would save if tactical voting worked along the lines suggested by our poll would often be ones with relatively marginal Labour leads in 2010. Bizarrely, the way the Labour vote has collapsed in its heartlands, seats with mind-bogglingly large majorities are more vulnerable than marginal ones where middle class supporters of the Tories (and the Lib Dems where they still exist) could save a Labour MP’s bacon.
My consumption of BBC related content [broadcast via other channels mainly as it's old like Pole To Pole] is about 3% at most.
The rest is cable or US network stuff/recycled on satellite here as filler. I can't stand the BBC's in-house drama style of over-acting/melodrama. I feel like I'm being shouted at. Compared to ITV's house style which is much more relaxed which I often enjoy.
I've an MX box that does much the same - honestly - it's a problem trying to plug all my bits of liquorice into my TV even wirelessly. I've two wifi keyboards to control the smart tv and my MX box. And that's not counting the Humax box. The DVD player is a poor relation.
If the General Election is most noticed news item, then unlikely to be a holiday effect in the polls and Labour's nip into the lead (on average) is genuine.
The interesting thing is that only 24% have noticed it.
Think about that - the GE is the lead story on every TV news programme, on the front page of most newspapers every day, the lead story on news websites almost continuously and ........
76% haven't noticed it!
And we worry about some stupid question or answer at PMQs or a MoE movement in a poll.
As Mike says, a useful reality check.
You are making an assumption that people watch TV news. I bet news broadcasts in the UK don't get great ratings, much as they don't here.
I'm the wrong man to ask - I haven't watched the networks - CBS, NBC, ABC and Fox in 30 years. If I hear something good about a show, I'll get the dvds from Netflix.
Must stuff I watch these days is from cable channels, via my dvr, to space through the 16 minutes of commercials per hour.
snip
snip
BBC America gives me access to all the UK content I would ever need, and frankly most of it is woeful.
Scotland: could tactical voting dent SNP’s election prospects?
So The Times’ YouGov poll gives this result:
SNP 53 seats
Lab 4
LD 1
Con 1
With tactical voting questions asked in the Channel 4 News/YouGov poll you get this result:
SNP 42
Lab 13
LD 3
Con 1
The seats Labour would save if tactical voting worked along the lines suggested by our poll would often be ones with relatively marginal Labour leads in 2010. Bizarrely, the way the Labour vote has collapsed in its heartlands, seats with mind-bogglingly large majorities are more vulnerable than marginal ones where middle class supporters of the Tories (and the Lib Dems where they still exist) could save a Labour MP’s bacon.
Tories desperately trying to liberate pandas from Edinburgh Zoo
132 elected Tories in Scotland!!!
The Scottish Conservative vote looks like it could be one of the most hopelessly inefficient ever at this GE.
I think FPTP is now a dead duck, and this will be its last GE (unless we end up having a second GE in 2015 or in 2016).
I've heard that guff at every election since 1979...
It will only change when those in power see it as being to their advantage, say for example when a Labour party sees it's heartlands turning against it in droves ;-).
Whilst either of the big two think they can win a majority it won't change.
it will only change when there have been no winners for sufficiently long enough that its in everyone's advantage. The problem being the FPTP can still turn up a majority with a very low vote percentage in a multi party system.
Live in an ultra safe Tory seat here in Kent but have received literature from Labour and, today, UKIP. That's already more effort shown by the alternatives than in the entirety of GE 2010.
Scotland: could tactical voting dent SNP’s election prospects?
So The Times’ YouGov poll gives this result:
SNP 53 seats
Lab 4
LD 1
Con 1
With tactical voting questions asked in the Channel 4 News/YouGov poll you get this result:
SNP 42
Lab 13
LD 3
Con 1
The seats Labour would save if tactical voting worked along the lines suggested by our poll would often be ones with relatively marginal Labour leads in 2010. Bizarrely, the way the Labour vote has collapsed in its heartlands, seats with mind-bogglingly large majorities are more vulnerable than marginal ones where middle class supporters of the Tories (and the Lib Dems where they still exist) could save a Labour MP’s bacon.
........, I suspect I won't be the only Tory supporting electoral reform after May 7th. I think FPTP is now a dead duck, and this will be its last GE (unless we end up having a second GE in 2015 or in 2016). Given the split that now exists on the Right, those of us of a centre-right inclination NEED electoral reform to happen in order not to be disenfranchised from UK politics for possibly the rest of our lives!
I have the feeling, M Sykes, that you are beginning to sympathise with the Liberals. It is what we have experienced since before the last war.
Tories desperately trying to liberate pandas from Edinburgh Zoo
132 elected Tories in Scotland!!!
The Scottish Conservative vote looks like it could be one of the most hopelessly inefficient ever at this GE.
With Ed getting 5 years as PM on the back of a probably equal par vote share with (or probably slightly less than) the Tories, I suspect I won't be the only Tory supporting electoral reform after May 7th.
I think FPTP is now a dead duck, and this will be its last GE (unless we end up having a second GE in 2015 or in 2016).
Given the split that now exists on the Right, those of us of a centre-right inclination NEED electoral reform to happen in order not to be disenfranchised from UK politics for possibly the rest of our lives!
Is that the distant clip-clop of the bolting horse to be heard beneath the squeak of the stable door being bolted?
Many on the left said the same from 1979 to 1997. I think a clamour for voting reform should now come from both sides, including UKIP.
The Electoral Reform Society claims that over 50% of voters are disenfranchised by living in safe seats. I've been disenfranchised for over 40 years.
I recognize those news time slots. It is when Mum (or Dad) goes into the kitchen to make a cup of tea, comes back with the tray and asks, "What's happened?", to which the answer is, "Nothing".
If I was living in a LD-SNP marginal,as a Lab member I could vote tactically. Would it be: a) A vote for the LibDems, to bolster the chances of the Con-LD coalition continuing? b) A vote for the SNP, who have vowed to support a Labour minority government?
If I was living in a LD-SNP marginal,as a Lab member I could vote tactically. Would it be: a) A vote for the LibDems, to bolster the chances of the Con-LD coalition continuing? b) A vote for the SNP, who have vowed to support a Labour minority government?
Bit obvious, innit?
What of your loyalty to the Crown, the Union, the Nation that has embraced you to its bosom?! Have you no shame?! Etc, etc...
Tories desperately trying to liberate pandas from Edinburgh Zoo
132 elected Tories in Scotland!!!
The Scottish Conservative vote looks like it could be one of the most hopelessly inefficient ever at this GE.
With Ed getting 5 years as PM on the back of a probably equal par vote share with (or probably slightly less than) the Tories, I suspect I won't be the only Tory supporting electoral reform after May 7th.
I think FPTP is now a dead duck, and this will be its last GE (unless we end up having a second GE in 2015 or in 2016).
Given the split that now exists on the Right, those of us of a centre-right inclination NEED electoral reform to happen in order not to be disenfranchised from UK politics for possibly the rest of our lives!
Hopefully, FPTP will be untenable after this election. In Scotland, the SNP will get something like 90% of the seats on around 45%-50% of the vote; in England UKIP will get one or two seats for 10% of the vote, the LDs may get 30 for the same percentage, and neither will get close to the proportion of MPs their vote share merits. Labour and the Tories, meanwhile, will get far more than their vote shares. If you could devise a voting system to make turn people turn off politics and believe they have no stake in it, FPTP in a multi-party would be it.
If I was living in a LD-SNP marginal,as a Lab member I could vote tactically. Would it be: a) A vote for the LibDems, to bolster the chances of the Con-LD coalition continuing? b) A vote for the SNP, who have vowed to support a Labour minority government?
Bit obvious, innit?
Wouldn't the quality of the candidate be a factor?
Can somebody please explain what the hell the Tories are doing with this paid leave for volunteering pledge?
I don't exactly know who it's appealing to, but if the Tories carry on with this bland, uninspiring, non-campaign I'll increasingly be un-arsed if they do lose!
As things stand, you'd have to say Ed deserves his crack at it because he at least is offering some sort of vision and prospectus for power, flawed though it is...
At the moment, David Cameron gives no impression that he even cares whether or not he wins. Ed Milliband does care.
Exactly how I see it currently.
I will be seething with anger for 5 years at Red Ed being PM, but at least he is showing fight and passion, and the voters are responding.
If the polls tonight remain as previous (or worse), and why wouldn't they, then surely the press will over the weekend be reporting on disgruntled Tory MPs plotting and scheming, even if none puts their head above the parapet yet. Or perhaps they might be prepared to do so - the odd whackjob, and let's face it, there's plenty of them on the Tory benches....
Does Dave know he's lost, the UKIP bubble having failed to burst, and that no amount of last-minute cramming can as a result save his bacon this time (compared to in 2010, which just about got him over the line with the LDs' help)?
My consumption of BBC related content [broadcast via other channels mainly as it's old like Pole To Pole] is about 3% at most.
The rest is cable or US network stuff/recycled on satellite here as filler. I can't stand the BBC's in-house drama style of over-acting/melodrama. I feel like I'm being shouted at. Compared to ITV's house style which is much more relaxed which I often enjoy.
I've an MX box that does much the same - honestly - it's a problem trying to plug all my bits of liquorice into my TV even wirelessly. I've two wifi keyboards to control the smart tv and my MX box. And that's not counting the Humax box. The DVD player is a poor relation.
If the General Election is most noticed news item, then unlikely to be a holiday effect in the polls and Labour's nip into the lead (on average) is genuine.
The interesting thing is that only 24% have noticed it.
Think about that - the GE is the lead story on every TV news programme, on the front page of most newspapers every day, the lead story on news websites almost continuously and ........
76% haven't noticed it!
You are making an assumption that people watch TV news. I bet news broadcasts in the UK don't get great ratings, much as they don't here.
snip
snip
BBC America gives me access to all the UK content I would ever need, and frankly most of it is woeful.
It's interesting how things change over time. In the 60s and 70s the BBC simply made the best period drama. They still show glimpses - Pride and Prejudice for example was superb.
American TV was dreadful.
Now US TV drama - cable networks - is superb, and the beeb sucks big time. Even Dr Who now has a left wing tilt.
ITV is something of a surprise. In days gone by, Brideshead Revisited - arguably one of the best novel dramatizations ever - and 'The Jewel in the Crown' were pearls in an otherwise uneventful landscape.
Now they have Downton Abbey, with a six month shooting schedule for 8 50 minute episodes. That is almost unthinkable for a TV show.
It is co-producer PBS' biggest show ever, far and away.
Mr. Clipp, it's only worth changing something to improve it. The arguments for change seem largely framed around helping parties. That is not a compelling case.
If I was living in a LD-SNP marginal,as a Lab member I could vote tactically. Would it be: a) A vote for the LibDems, to bolster the chances of the Con-LD coalition continuing? b) A vote for the SNP, who have vowed to support a Labour minority government?
Bit obvious, innit?
What of your loyalty to the Crown, the Union, the Nation that has embraced you to its bosom?! Have you no shame?! Etc, etc...
After voting tactically for the LibDems in 2010 I can't get any lower.
If I was living in a LD-SNP marginal,as a Lab member I could vote tactically. Would it be: a) A vote for the LibDems, to bolster the chances of the Con-LD coalition continuing? b) A vote for the SNP, who have vowed to support a Labour minority government?
Bit obvious, innit?
Didn't you vote tactically at the last election, for the Lib Dems?
I mean, others might do the same to save the Union!
I'm not thinking very much about tactical voting in Scotland. It's one thing finding in a poll that party supporters would contemplate it in given circumstances, it's another thing entirely getting them to do it. Those polls with Labour creeping up towards 30% suggest it may be happening at the margins. The most recent YouGov does not.
On the type of swings that the SNP recorded in the constituency polls carried out by Lord Ashcroft, it will be relevant to only a couple of seats anyway.
I hadn't seen ITV in years and tuned in a couple of years ago and was pretty impressed.
I used to love Thames TV - Crime Inc is iconic as was The World At War. Midsomer Murders is on S15 IIRC and one of the most sold shows worldwide. It's that gentle style that I like. Their other stuff is rather good too. I find BBC stuff just too in-yer-face or subliminally political - I randomly TVR stuff not knowing who made it and invariably end up deleting the BBC stuff within 10 mins as it's hard work.
The rest is cable or US network stuff/recycled on satellite here as filler. I can't stand the BBC's in-house drama style of over-acting/melodrama. I feel like I'm being shouted at. Compared to ITV's house style which is much more relaxed which I often enjoy.
If the General Election is most noticed news item, then unlikely to be a holiday effect in the polls and Labour's nip into the lead (on average) is genuine.
The interesting thing is that only 24% have noticed it.
Think about that - the GE is the lead story on every TV news programme, on the front page of most newspapers every day, the lead story on news websites almost continuously and ........
76% haven't noticed it!
You are making an assumption that people watch TV news. I bet news broadcasts in the UK don't get great ratings, much as they don't here.
snip
snip
BBC America gives me access to all the UK content I would ever need, and frankly most of it is woeful.
It's interesting how things change over time. In the 60s and 70s the BBC simply made the best period drama. They still show glimpses - Pride and Prejudice for example was superb.
American TV was dreadful.
Now US TV drama - cable networks - is superb, and the beeb sucks big time. Even Dr Who now has a left wing tilt.
ITV is something of a surprise. In days gone by, Brideshead Revisited - arguably one of the best novel dramatizations ever - and 'The Jewel in the Crown' were pearls in an otherwise uneventful landscape.
Now they have Downton Abbey, with a six month shooting schedule for 8 50 minute episodes. That is almost unthinkable for a TV show.
It is co-producer PBS' biggest show ever, far and away.
Can somebody please explain what the hell the Tories are doing with this paid leave for volunteering pledge?
I don't exactly know who it's appealing to, but if the Tories carry on with this bland, uninspiring, non-campaign I'll increasingly be un-arsed if they do lose!
As things stand, you'd have to say Ed deserves his crack at it because he at least is offering some sort of vision and prospectus for power, flawed though it is...
At the moment, David Cameron gives no impression that he even cares whether or not he wins. Ed Milliband does care.
Exactly how I see it currently.
I will be seething with anger for 5 years at Red Ed being PM, but at least he is showing fight and passion, and the voters are responding.
If the polls tonight remain as previous (or worse), and why wouldn't they, then surely the press will over the weekend be reporting on disgruntled Tory MPs plotting and scheming, even if none puts their head above the parapet yet. Or perhaps they might be prepared to do so - the odd whackjob, and let's face it, there's plenty of them on the Tory benches....
Does Dave know he's lost, the UKIP bubble having failed to burst, and that no amount of last-minute cramming can as a result save his bacon this time (compared to in 2010, which just about got him over the line with the LDs' help)?
I'm not thinking very much about tactical voting in Scotland. It's one thing finding in a poll that party supporters would contemplate it in given circumstances, it's another thing entirely getting them to do it. Those polls with Labour creeping up towards 30% suggest it may be happening at the margins. The most recent YouGov does not.
On the type of swings that the SNP recorded in the constituency polls carried out by Lord Ashcroft, it will be relevant to only a couple of seats anyway.
No Green party candidate running against Dougie or Murphy btw.
I've only caught a bit of the coverage - but it has Hollywood Blockbuster written all over it as a heist. Sky tried to drill through as many inches of concrete this morning and got nowhere. It really did take the whole Easter weekend to do it.
It is already a (rather good) film with Jason Statham.
Alot of the Edinburgh seats are places where on paper to the uninformed eye it appears as if the Tories have a chance.
Edinburgh Southwest and West are two examples.
They've got a fair chance of coming 2nd (esp in West) if they don't vote tactically. And 2nd will put them in a better position to win next time. If they're still part of the UK by then.
Could the LibDems get 5 Scottish seats, as Moneyweek is predicting?
Probably not.
But if they did, which would be the five?
I'd go for:
1. Orkney & Shetland 2. Caithness, Sutherland and Easter Ross 3. Ross, Skye and Lochebar 4. Inverness & Nairn 5. Gordon
[snip]
Swap in Fife NE for Inverness and I think you have it right.
Edit: or maybe Dunbartonshire East. Really not sure how lack of incumbency will play out in Fife.
Why is no-one talking about Edinburgh West? The LDs built their vote up to ~50% in 2005.
Crockart took a big hit in 2010 as a new candidate, but in ordinary circumstances would be expecting a large boost at this election. Surely it's safer than it looks on paper?
Does Dave know he's lost, the UKIP bubble having failed to burst, and that no amount of last-minute cramming can as a result save his bacon this time (compared to in 2010, which just about got him over the line with the LDs' help)?
I'll take 6/4 on Cameron being PM after the election please, Bob.
If I was living in a LD-SNP marginal,as a Lab member I could vote tactically. Would it be: a) A vote for the LibDems, to bolster the chances of the Con-LD coalition continuing? b) A vote for the SNP, who have vowed to support a Labour minority government?
Bit obvious, innit?
Didn't you vote tactically at the last election, for the Lib Dems?
I mean, others might do the same to save the Union!
Mr. Clipp, it's only worth changing something to improve it. The arguments for change seem largely framed around helping parties. That is not a compelling case.
I normally see electoral reform in terms of improving the choices for the voter. I would think that your experience of your choice in your constituency would provide a good example for you.
The SNP victory in this election is an exception. It provides the first time when electoral reform for the Commons is, at least partially, in the interests of both the main parties. If the Unionist parties receive a scant handful of seats for their votes in Scotland, and are consequently not seen as able to represent Scotland at Westminster, it would be damaging for the Union.
PR, of some sort, would ensure that the Unionist majority in Scotland was represented at Westminster.
It would still require Labour and Conservative backbenchers voting against their personal self-interest, so quite unlikely, but it's the only reason I can think of that might sway some of them.
Can somebody please explain what the hell the Tories are doing with this paid leave for volunteering pledge?
I don't exactly know who it's appealing to, but if the Tories carry on with this bland, uninspiring, non-campaign I'll increasingly be un-arsed if they do lose!
As things stand, you'd have to say Ed deserves his crack at it because he at least is offering some sort of vision and prospectus for power, flawed though it is...
I don't get it either.
Nor me forcing business and the public sector to volunteer seems odd. But then again from a Conservative point of view does freezing prices.
Could the LibDems get 5 Scottish seats, as Moneyweek is predicting?
Probably not.
But if they did, which would be the five?
I'd go for:
1. Orkney & Shetland 2. Caithness, Sutherland and Easter Ross 3. Ross, Skye and Lochebar 4. Inverness & Nairn 5. Gordon
[snip]
Swap in Fife NE for Inverness and I think you have it right.
Edit: or maybe Dunbartonshire East. Really not sure how lack of incumbency will play out in Fife.
Why is no-one talking about Edinburgh West? The LDs built their vote up to ~50% in 2005.
Crockart took a big hit in 2010 as a new candidate, but in ordinary circumstances would be expecting a large boost at this election. Surely it's safer than it looks on paper?
I've talked about Edinburgh West for yonks
I think there is some 8-1 available on him !
I'm in at 6s and also on the SNP here.
I'd certainly prefer it to backing Danny with the 46% "Yes" vote in his seat, or Charlie.
Could the LibDems get 5 Scottish seats, as Moneyweek is predicting?
Probably not.
But if they did, which would be the five?
I'd go for:
1. Orkney & Shetland 2. Caithness, Sutherland and Easter Ross 3. Ross, Skye and Lochebar 4. Inverness & Nairn 5. Gordon
[snip]
Swap in Fife NE for Inverness and I think you have it right.
Edit: or maybe Dunbartonshire East. Really not sure how lack of incumbency will play out in Fife.
Why is no-one talking about Edinburgh West? The LDs built their vote up to ~50% in 2005.
Crockart took a big hit in 2010 as a new candidate, but in ordinary circumstances would be expecting a large boost at this election. Surely it's safer than it looks on paper?
Right, but ordinary circumstances for a Lib Dem doesn't involve being in government for 5 years... that said, the most obvious tactical vote anywhere must be for the incumbent. I'm not convinced by Labour as 2nd favourites here, but an SNP win on 35-40% looks by far the most likely outcome.
Can somebody please explain what the hell the Tories are doing with this paid leave for volunteering pledge?
I don't exactly know who it's appealing to, but if the Tories carry on with this bland, uninspiring, non-campaign I'll increasingly be un-arsed if they do lose!
As things stand, you'd have to say Ed deserves his crack at it because he at least is offering some sort of vision and prospectus for power, flawed though it is...
I don't get it either.
Nor me forcing business and the public sector to volunteer seems odd. But then again from a Conservative point of view does freezing prices.
A bit anecdotal wrt Edinburgh: I've met quite a few traditional upper/middleclass voters who have (apparently) lost their inhibition to voting SNP. My suspicion is most voted No in the referendum, and are feeling a bit guilty over it.
A bit anecdotal wrt Edinburgh: there seem to be a lot of traditional upper/middleclass voters who have lost their inhibition to voting SNP. My suspicion is most voted No in the referendum, and are feeling a bit guilty over it.
A bit anecdotal wrt Edinburgh: there seem to be a lot of traditional upper/middleclass voters who have lost their inhibition to voting SNP. My suspicion is most voted No in the referendum, and are feeling a bit guilty over it.
Comments
1 ITV - 07:30 PM Coronation Street 7106 37.0%
2 ITV - 07:00 PM Emmerdale 5859 33.0%
3 BBC One - 08:00 PM MasterChef 4798 24.0%
4 BBC One - 06:30 PM Regional News and Weather 4686 30.0%
5 BBC One - 06:00 PM BBC News at Six 4098 29.0%
6 BBC One - 10:00 PM BBC News at Ten 4014 23.0%
7 ITV - 09:00 PM DCI Banks 3925 19.0%
8 BBC One - 09:00 PM Secret Britain 3897 19.0%
9 BBC One - 10:30 PM Regional News and Weather 3409 23.0%
10 ITV - 08:00 PM Big Star's Little Star 3372 17.0%
See more at: http://www.itvmedia.co.uk/#sthash.cCJGdIk7.dpuf
http://www.itv.com/news/2015-04-10/mystery-candidate-michael-green-standing-against-grant-shapps/
Must stuff I watch these days is from cable channels, via my dvr, to space through the 16 minutes of commercials per hour.
Have you tried Pick or TruTV or Travel Channel? There's some great history/reality stuff on there that makes me laugh.
Monumental Mysteries on Travel Channel is great.
All my TV is TVR'd or Netflix/Amazon Prime unless I spot something via the Showcase section on FreeSat that gets my attention.
I can't recall watching BBC1 in a decade.
Apparently some of the big bookmakers will have to give a profits warning if it wins. Might be good long-term for racing but short-term it's a nitemare for the layers.
A lady-jockey winning would also be pretty sensational and Nina Carberry has the ability and a horse good enough to do it. First Lieutenant has been well-backed but 25/1 still looks fairly decent odds, and would be my second pick.
The Regional News rating is the sum of all regions - BBC1 will show Regional News in each region (UK split into about 12 different regions) at that time - that is the total watching across the UK.
Is it really so short just because it's McCoy's final ride or is there some other reason ?
Don't know why it's a nightmare for layers... would have thought they'd welcome cash on it.
I think FPTP is now a dead duck, and this will be its last GE (unless we end up having a second GE in 2015 or in 2016).
Given the split that now exists on the Right, those of us of a centre-right inclination NEED electoral reform to happen in order not to be disenfranchised from UK politics for possibly the rest of our lives!
1 ITV2 - 08:00 PM Skyfall 1009 5.3%
2 BT Sport 1 - 07:00 PM Live Blackburn Rovers v Liverpool 680 3.4%
3 E4 - 07:00 PM Hollyoaks 612 3.5%
4 BBC Three - 09:00 PM Enemy of the State 563 3.1%
5 BBC Three - 11:05 PM Family Guy 561 6.3%
6 ITV3 - 08:00 PM Rosemary and Thyme 550 2.8%
7 E4 - 06:30 PM The Big Bang Theory 507 3.2%
8 BBC Three - 11:30 PM Family Guy 498 7.1%
9 5* - 06:30 PM Home and Away 445 28.0%
10 BBC Four - 09:00 PM Treasures of Ancient Greece 432 2.1%
See more at: http://www.itvmedia.co.uk/#sthash.cCJGdIk7.dpuf
All tiny compared to BBC1 and ITV1. In summary BBC1 and ITV1 rate a million miles ahead of all other channels 95% of the time.
As things stand, you'd have to say Ed deserves his crack at it because he at least is offering some sort of vision and prospectus for power, flawed though it is...
Unlikely to be very many - possibly none.
https://yournextmp.com/constituency/65909/buckingham
Edit - It is 3 the OMRLP isn't standing
https://yournextmp.com/upload_document/94/
However - like everything else - it's cheaper here. With my latest annual increase, my DirecTV sub is almost as much as I paid for Sky in the UK a decade ago.
Probably not.
But if they did, which would be the five?
I'd go for:
1. Orkney & Shetland
2. Caithness, Sutherland and Easter Ross
3. Ross, Skye and Lochebar
4. Inverness & Nairn
5. Gordon
Why?
Well, despite the views of some of the Nats on here, I think Alistair Carmichael has a strong personal vote, and the SNP did very poorly in O&S. Scotland-gate resonates with... people who would have voted Nationalist anyway, so I think it will have a much smaller effect than people think.
Viscount Thurso has tirelessly worked Caithness, and is genuinely popular. He is probably the only LibDem who will pick up some (grudging) "yes" voters. Although he is notionally less safe than Charles Kennedy, I think he is more likely to win his seat.
I suspect Charles Kennedy will lose on the night. He is yesterday's man, and I think he will soon be out of a job. But, if the LibDems did get five Scottish seats, this would be one.
Inverness. What am I thinking? I think Danny will benefit from Conservative tactical voting, and will hold more of his LibDem base than some. The ire of the Nats is so great, I wonder if he might just hold on. (I've not actually bet on him, even at current odds. But I do wonder...)
Gordon. Gordon??? If there is one thing that might motivate anti-SNP tactical voting it's Alex Salmond. I therefore cautiously make that the fifth improbable LibDem hold in Scotland.
4 candidates in Blackburn (no Greens). None of them living in the constituency (but none of them too far away)
4 also in Normanton (no Greens again)
Edit: or maybe Dunbartonshire East. Really not sure how lack of incumbency will play out in Fife.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/John_Curtice
So The Times’ YouGov poll gives this result:
SNP 53 seats
Lab 4
LD 1
Con 1
With tactical voting questions asked in the Channel 4 News/YouGov poll you get this result:
SNP 42
Lab 13
LD 3
Con 1
The seats Labour would save if tactical voting worked along the lines suggested by our poll would often be ones with relatively marginal Labour leads in 2010. Bizarrely, the way the Labour vote has collapsed in its heartlands, seats with mind-bogglingly large majorities are more vulnerable than marginal ones where middle class supporters of the Tories (and the Lib Dems where they still exist) could save a Labour MP’s bacon.
http://bit.ly/1aezKL9
I will step on one of these before too long!
Get wheeled around by a young woman and wave saying "you've all done very well"
I ask because it's specifically been prompted for by the interviewer.
BBC America gives me access to all the UK content I would ever need, and frankly most of it is woeful.
Michael Gove's intervention this week was a taster I think
It's my DavidL test, I can see someone like DavidL backing them in those seats, for the greater good.
And pro-LD tactical voting will probably be easier to achieve than pro-Lab or Con.
The rest is cable or US network stuff/recycled on satellite here as filler. I can't stand the BBC's in-house drama style of over-acting/melodrama. I feel like I'm being shouted at. Compared to ITV's house style which is much more relaxed which I often enjoy.
It is marginal, and very edge case but objectively you can prove it
it will only change when there have been no winners for sufficiently long enough that its in everyone's advantage. The problem being the FPTP can still turn up a majority with a very low vote percentage in a multi party system.
If I lived in Inverness I would not just be voting for Danny, I would be out canvassing for him.
The Electoral Reform Society claims that over 50% of voters are disenfranchised by living in safe seats. I've been disenfranchised for over 40 years.
a) A vote for the LibDems, to bolster the chances of the Con-LD coalition continuing?
b) A vote for the SNP, who have vowed to support a Labour minority government?
Bit obvious, innit?
Would be for me.
I will be seething with anger for 5 years at Red Ed being PM, but at least he is showing fight and passion, and the voters are responding.
If the polls tonight remain as previous (or worse), and why wouldn't they, then surely the press will over the weekend be reporting on disgruntled Tory MPs plotting and scheming, even if none puts their head above the parapet yet. Or perhaps they might be prepared to do so - the odd whackjob, and let's face it, there's plenty of them on the Tory benches....
Does Dave know he's lost, the UKIP bubble having failed to burst, and that no amount of last-minute cramming can as a result save his bacon this time (compared to in 2010, which just about got him over the line with the LDs' help)?
American TV was dreadful.
Now US TV drama - cable networks - is superb, and the beeb sucks big time. Even Dr Who now has a left wing tilt.
ITV is something of a surprise. In days gone by, Brideshead Revisited - arguably one of the best novel dramatizations ever - and 'The Jewel in the Crown' were pearls in an otherwise uneventful landscape.
Now they have Downton Abbey, with a six month shooting schedule for 8 50 minute episodes. That is almost unthinkable for a TV show.
It is co-producer PBS' biggest show ever, far and away.
I mean, others might do the same to save the Union!
On the type of swings that the SNP recorded in the constituency polls carried out by Lord Ashcroft, it will be relevant to only a couple of seats anyway.
Edinburgh Southwest and West are two examples.
I used to love Thames TV - Crime Inc is iconic as was The World At War. Midsomer Murders is on S15 IIRC and one of the most sold shows worldwide. It's that gentle style that I like. Their other stuff is rather good too. I find BBC stuff just too in-yer-face or subliminally political - I randomly TVR stuff not knowing who made it and invariably end up deleting the BBC stuff within 10 mins as it's hard work.
Not rocket science.
Crockart took a big hit in 2010 as a new candidate, but in ordinary circumstances would be expecting a large boost at this election. Surely it's safer than it looks on paper?
The SNP victory in this election is an exception. It provides the first time when electoral reform for the Commons is, at least partially, in the interests of both the main parties. If the Unionist parties receive a scant handful of seats for their votes in Scotland, and are consequently not seen as able to represent Scotland at Westminster, it would be damaging for the Union.
PR, of some sort, would ensure that the Unionist majority in Scotland was represented at Westminster.
It would still require Labour and Conservative backbenchers voting against their personal self-interest, so quite unlikely, but it's the only reason I can think of that might sway some of them.
But then again from a Conservative point of view does freezing prices.
Electric freezes bad rail freezes good.
I think there is some 8-1 available on him !
I'm in at 6s and also on the SNP here.
I'd certainly prefer it to backing Danny with the 46% "Yes" vote in his seat, or Charlie.
Two entirely different beasts. You surely know that.
Welcome to PB, nevertheless.