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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The general election now the UK’s number one story

SystemSystem Posts: 11,693
edited April 2015 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The general election now the UK’s number one story

I do like this weekly Tweet from Populus which can put a lot of things into context. Too often those deeply immersed in politics tend to overstate importance of what seem to them to be major developments to the outside world. This brings it down to earth.

Read the full story here


«13

Comments

  • Options
    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,526
    Bring it on
  • Options
    JonCisBackJonCisBack Posts: 911
    3 weeks 5 days is a long time in politics
  • Options
    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,526
    edited April 2015
    Via Tissue Price

    Does anyone know if this chap bets?

    7 Tory seats in Scotland

    http://moneyweek.com/election-2015-why-david-cameron-will-remain-prime-minister/
  • Options
    dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,288
    Re Bristol Seats - local rag's summary of betting odds.

    http://www.bristolpost.co.uk/General-Election-Latest-betting-odds-seats/story-26308577-detail/story.html
  • Options
    PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    OT Does anyone have a sub to CBS All Access? It looks like a good all-you-can-eat offer. I'm interested in the TV shows and how CBS covers the UK election [if at all].
  • Options
    BenMBenM Posts: 1,795
    If the General Election is most noticed news item, then unlikely to be a holiday effect in the polls and Labour's nip into the lead (on average) is genuine.
  • Options
    PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    Following on from our recent chemistry discussions, I know a few here are interested in such stuff. This caught my eye. Whatever you think of the Mail, they do have a fun/great popular science and tech section.
    It has been a key part school chemistry lessons for more than a century, but now the periodic table may need to be redrawn after scientists found a rare element may be very different from originally thought.

    Researchers have for the first time been able to test how much energy is required to strip an electron from an atom of the radioactive element lawrencium.

    The rare metal currently sits at the very bottom of the periodic table at the end of a group of elements known as the actinides, which sit in a separate block from the main table.

    But the results of new research suggest the element may have properties similar to sodium and potassium, which may fuel arguments that it would be better placed in the main body the periodic table.

    Read more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/article-3033570/Is-periodic-table-WRONG-Elements-need-reordered-scientists-Lawrencium-looks-place.html#ixzz3WuVUqept
    Follow us: @MailOnline on Twitter | DailyMail on Facebook
  • Options
    Tissue_PriceTissue_Price Posts: 9,039
    Let's take this seriously for a moment. Pick 7 of these. I think you have to assume the first 4 and then choose 3 of the long shots. 
    Dumfriesshire etc.    4/6  
    Berwickshire etc.     7/4  
    Ab. W & Kincardine    9/2  
    Dumfries & Galloway   5/1  
    Edinburgh West       16/1  
    Edinburgh South      16/1  
    Perth & N. P'shire   16/1  
    Renfrewshire East    20/1  
    Argyll and Bute      28/1  
    Edinburgh SW         33/1  
    Fife North East      40/1
  • Options
    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,942
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Via Tissue Price

    Does anyone know if this chap bets?

    7 Tory seats in Scotland

    http://moneyweek.com/election-2015-why-david-cameron-will-remain-prime-minister/

    https://www.sportingindex.com/spread-betting/politics/british/mm4.uk.meeting.5091259/uk-general-election-scotland-regional-markets

    SNP Seatspotting market. Probably technically bang on the correct price of 38, but I've bought at a pound a point at 40.

    Fun market for the evening.
  • Options
    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    Tissue_Price said:

    Let's take this seriously for a moment. Pick 7 of these. I think you have to assume the first 4 and then choose 3 of the long shots.

    Dumfriesshire etc.    4/6  
    Berwickshire etc.     7/4  
    Ab. W & Kincardine    9/2  
    Dumfries & Galloway   5/1  
    Edinburgh West       16/1  
    Edinburgh South      16/1  
    Perth & N. P'shire   16/1  
    Renfrewshire East    20/1  
    Argyll and Bute      28/1  
    Edinburgh SW         33/1  
    Fife North East      40/1
    Regular readers will know my form, but despite that I have had a punt on Edinburgh West
  • Options
    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,526
    Tissue_Price said:

    Let's take this seriously for a moment. Pick 7 of these. I think you have to assume the first 4 and then choose 3 of the long shots.

    Dumfriesshire etc.    4/6  
    Berwickshire etc.     7/4  
    Ab. W & Kincardine    9/2  
    Dumfries & Galloway   5/1  
    Edinburgh West       16/1  
    Edinburgh South      16/1  
    Perth & N. P'shire   16/1  
    Renfrewshire East    20/1  
    Argyll and Bute      28/1  
    Edinburgh SW         33/1  
    Fife North East      40/1
    You can rule out any held by the SNP so that's Perth out.

    If a Unionist wins Renfrewshire East, it'll be Jim Murphy
  • Options
    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,942
    Scott_P said:

    Tissue_Price said:

    Let's take this seriously for a moment. Pick 7 of these. I think you have to assume the first 4 and then choose 3 of the long shots.

    Dumfriesshire etc.    4/6  
    Berwickshire etc.     7/4  
    Ab. W & Kincardine    9/2  
    Dumfries & Galloway   5/1  
    Edinburgh West       16/1  
    Edinburgh South      16/1  
    Perth & N. P'shire   16/1  
    Renfrewshire East    20/1  
    Argyll and Bute      28/1  
    Edinburgh SW         33/1  
    Fife North East      40/1
    Regular readers will know my form, but despite that I have had a punt on Edinburgh West
    Fife NE :D
  • Options
    AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Tissue_Price said:

    Brave predictions of our time. NB the coalition performance in Scotland.

    http://moneyweek.com/election-2015-why-david-cameron-will-remain-prime-minister/

    7!
    Forget the 7, he thinks 5 LDs. No. Frikin. Way.
  • Options
    Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 49,362
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Bring it on

    "This can't be happening, man! This can't be happening!" :lol:
  • Options
    TheWatcherTheWatcher Posts: 5,262
    BenM said:

    If the General Election is most noticed news item, then unlikely to be a holiday effect in the polls and Labour's nip into the lead (on average) is genuine.

    ?
  • Options
    Tissue_PriceTissue_Price Posts: 9,039
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Tissue_Price said:

    Let's take this seriously for a moment. Pick 7 of these. I think you have to assume the first 4 and then choose 3 of the long shots.

    Dumfriesshire etc.    4/6  
    Berwickshire etc.     7/4  
    Ab. W & Kincardine    9/2  
    Dumfries & Galloway   5/1  
    Edinburgh West       16/1  
    Edinburgh South      16/1  
    Perth & N. P'shire   16/1  
    Renfrewshire East    20/1  
    Argyll and Bute      28/1  
    Edinburgh SW         33/1  
    Fife North East      40/1
    You can rule out any held by the SNP so that's Perth out.

    If a Unionist wins Renfrewshire East, it'll be Jim Murphy
    I reckon the Tories will be winning the current SNP seats within a decade. But not tonight, Joséphine.
  • Options
    Ishmael_XIshmael_X Posts: 3,664
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Bring it on

    If you think you're 'ard enough (i.e. at least as 'ard as ed).
  • Options
    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,994
    Good afternoon, everyone.

    I'd be surprised if the Conservatives got more than 3 seats in Scotland. Seven seems optimistic indeed.
  • Options
    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,942
    Alistair said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Tissue_Price said:

    Brave predictions of our time. NB the coalition performance in Scotland.

    http://moneyweek.com/election-2015-why-david-cameron-will-remain-prime-minister/

    7!
    Forget the 7, he thinks 5 LDs. No. Frikin. Way.
    It's alot more plausible than 7 Tories though lol - I doubt he is considering Thurso's potential personal vote etc...
  • Options
    OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 9,143
    Plato said:

    Following on from our recent chemistry discussions, I know a few here are interested in such stuff. This caught my eye. Whatever you think of the Mail, they do have a fun/great popular science and tech section.

    It has been a key part school chemistry lessons for more than a century, but now the periodic table may need to be redrawn after scientists found a rare element may be very different from originally thought.

    Researchers have for the first time been able to test how much energy is required to strip an electron from an atom of the radioactive element lawrencium.

    The rare metal currently sits at the very bottom of the periodic table at the end of a group of elements known as the actinides, which sit in a separate block from the main table.

    But the results of new research suggest the element may have properties similar to sodium and potassium, which may fuel arguments that it would be better placed in the main body the periodic table.

    Read more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/article-3033570/Is-periodic-table-WRONG-Elements-need-reordered-scientists-Lawrencium-looks-place.html#ixzz3WuVUqept
    Follow us: @MailOnline on Twitter | DailyMail on Facebook
    There is also a write-up at Nature.
  • Options
    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,942
    Bexhill and Battle at 33s looks like an easy 3% return. Why isn't it 1-100 ?
  • Options
    weejonnieweejonnie Posts: 3,820
    Plato said:

    Following on from our recent chemistry discussions, I know a few here are interested in such stuff. This caught my eye. Whatever you think of the Mail, they do have a fun/great popular science and tech section.

    It has been a key part school chemistry lessons for more than a century, but now the periodic table may need to be redrawn after scientists found a rare element may be very different from originally thought.

    Researchers have for the first time been able to test how much energy is required to strip an electron from an atom of the radioactive element lawrencium.

    The rare metal currently sits at the very bottom of the periodic table at the end of a group of elements known as the actinides, which sit in a separate block from the main table.

    But the results of new research suggest the element may have properties similar to sodium and potassium, which may fuel arguments that it would be better placed in the main body the periodic table.

    Read more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/article-3033570/Is-periodic-table-WRONG-Elements-need-reordered-scientists-Lawrencium-looks-place.html#ixzz3WuVUqept
    Follow us: @MailOnline on Twitter | DailyMail on Facebook
    Lawrencium hasn't been 'at the bottom' of the periodic table since the 1970s - at least 6 others have names and 3 more have been created awaiting naming.

    The 1st ionization energy of Lawrencium is going to be very low because of the shielding effect of the other 102 electrons. Lawrencium has 9 electrons in the 6th energy level, presumably it is one of these that is being removed to form a stable octet.

    Furthermore atoms are these days categorised by their quantum numbers. i.e. solution to Schrodinger's equation for electrons in the vicinity of the nucleus.

  • Options
    taffystaffys Posts: 9,753
    ''I'd be surprised if the Conservatives got more than 3 seats in Scotland. Seven seems optimistic indeed.''

    True Mister Morris, but then Scottish politics is a complete mystery to me. They voted to stay with the UK, and now if the polls are right droves of people who voted to stay in are voting SNP....???

    Oh, and they don;t really want another referendum...
  • Options
    Tissue_PriceTissue_Price Posts: 9,039
    Pulpstar said:

    Bexhill and Battle at 33s looks like an easy 3% return. Why isn't it 1-100 ?

    Kipper "threat". There are a lot of Tory seats in this sort of position. Same price in Aldridge-Brownhills, for example.
  • Options
    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,942
    Morris_Dancer said:

    Good afternoon, everyone.

    I'd be surprised if the Conservatives got more than 3 seats in Scotland. Seven seems optimistic indeed.

    It'll be trebles all round if the Tories get three Scottish seats on the night. Quite a few of us are on that at a ludicrous 25-1.
  • Options
    richardDoddrichardDodd Posts: 5,472
    The Labourites are getting a little shrill on the web.... playing the victim card..are they getting a little worried
  • Options
    PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    I quite agree - I was amazed when someone here touted it as a possible Tory loss. WTF?
    Pulpstar said:

    Bexhill and Battle at 33s looks like an easy 3% return. Why isn't it 1-100 ?

  • Options
    Tissue_PriceTissue_Price Posts: 9,039
    Pulpstar said:

    Morris_Dancer said:

    Good afternoon, everyone.

    I'd be surprised if the Conservatives got more than 3 seats in Scotland. Seven seems optimistic indeed.

    It'll be trebles all round if the Tories get three Scottish seats on the night. Quite a few of us are on that at a ludicrous 25-1.
    Bloody hell, what a price.
  • Options
    weejonnieweejonnie Posts: 3,820
    Tissue_Price said:

    Let's take this seriously for a moment. Pick 7 of these. I think you have to assume the first 4 and then choose 3 of the long shots.

    Dumfriesshire etc.    4/6  
    Berwickshire etc.     7/4  
    Ab. W & Kincardine    9/2  
    Dumfries & Galloway   5/1  
    Edinburgh West       16/1  
    Edinburgh South      16/1  
    Perth & N. P'shire   16/1  
    Renfrewshire East    20/1  
    Argyll and Bute      28/1  
    Edinburgh SW         33/1  
    Fife North East      40/1
    I am not betting - but isn't the Tory vote in Scotland very concentrated. It is perfectly possible that the Anti-Nat vote in some areas coalesces around the Blues rather than the Reds.

    Which would make it amusing if Labour is expelled from Scotland, since their activists have laid that claim against the Tories for 30 years.
  • Options
    taffystaffys Posts: 9,753
    Quite a few of us are on that at a ludicrous 25-1.

    Offhand do you know if that's still available Mr P??
  • Options
    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,942
    edited April 2015
    Tissue_Price said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Morris_Dancer said:

    Good afternoon, everyone.

    I'd be surprised if the Conservatives got more than 3 seats in Scotland. Seven seems optimistic indeed.

    It'll be trebles all round if the Tories get three Scottish seats on the night. Quite a few of us are on that at a ludicrous 25-1.
    Bloody hell, what a price.
    Panda bet :D

    Only have a tenner on this tho :(
  • Options
    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,526
    Pulpstar said:

    Bexhill and Battle at 33s looks like an easy 3% return. Why isn't it 1-100 ?

    UKIP did well there in the Euros didn't they?

    Plus Greg Barker is standing down
  • Options
    dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,288
    Sean O'Neill ‏@TimesCrime 16s17 seconds ago
    Scotland Yard: intruder alarm activated at 00.21 on April 3 at Hatton Garden Safe Deposit but "no police response was deemed to be required"
  • Options
    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,994
    Mr. Taffys, disagree with that assessment. Yes got 45%, and around that proportion are planning on voting for the SNP.
  • Options
    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,942
    taffys said:

    Quite a few of us are on that at a ludicrous 25-1.

    Offhand do you know if that's still available Mr P??

    No. It was when Corals went bonkers the day after the first round of Ashcroft polls.
  • Options
    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,526
    Tissue_Price said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Morris_Dancer said:

    Good afternoon, everyone.

    I'd be surprised if the Conservatives got more than 3 seats in Scotland. Seven seems optimistic indeed.

    It'll be trebles all round if the Tories get three Scottish seats on the night. Quite a few of us are on that at a ludicrous 25-1.
    Bloody hell, what a price.
    Was pointed out/tipped by a betting Great.
  • Options
    Peter_the_PunterPeter_the_Punter Posts: 13,323
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Bexhill and Battle at 33s looks like an easy 3% return. Why isn't it 1-100 ?

    UKIP did well there in the Euros didn't they?

    Plus Greg Barker is standing down
    Yes, be careful.

    Should be safe but not a complete gimme.
  • Options
    Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 49,362
    OblitusSumMe said:

    Plato said:

    Following on from our recent chemistry discussions, I know a few here are interested in such stuff. This caught my eye. Whatever you think of the Mail, they do have a fun/great popular science and tech section.

    It has been a key part school chemistry lessons for more than a century, but now the periodic table may need to be redrawn after scientists found a rare element may be very different from originally thought.

    Researchers have for the first time been able to test how much energy is required to strip an electron from an atom of the radioactive element lawrencium.

    The rare metal currently sits at the very bottom of the periodic table at the end of a group of elements known as the actinides, which sit in a separate block from the main table.

    But the results of new research suggest the element may have properties similar to sodium and potassium, which may fuel arguments that it would be better placed in the main body the periodic table.

    Read more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/article-3033570/Is-periodic-table-WRONG-Elements-need-reordered-scientists-Lawrencium-looks-place.html#ixzz3WuVUqept
    Follow us: @MailOnline on Twitter | DailyMail on Facebook
    There is also a write-up at Nature.

    The Actinides (and the Lanthanides sitting directly above) CAN be placed in the main body of the Periodic Table - you just need wide-screen LOL:

    http://www.sciencegeek.net/tables/LongTable2000.png
  • Options
    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,942
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Bexhill and Battle at 33s looks like an easy 3% return. Why isn't it 1-100 ?

    UKIP did well there in the Euros didn't they?

    Plus Greg Barker is standing down
    It'll be a terriiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiible night for the Tories if Bexhill drops.
  • Options
    Peter_the_PunterPeter_the_Punter Posts: 13,323
    *Betting Post - Gfrand National*

    May be too busy to post tomorrow so I'll give my Grand National selection now - Spring Heeled at 22/1 with Hills.

    As both my loyal readers will be aware, I cannot possibly improve on last year's selection but hope to equal it.

    Good luck, etc...
  • Options
    taffystaffys Posts: 9,753
    edited April 2015
    ''Yes got 45%, and around that proportion are planning on voting for the SNP.''

    That being the case Mr Morris, you have to wonder if the 55 wouldn;t be better off consolidating around one party. Ruth Davidson is extremely impressive.

    Maybe 7 seats isn't out of the question. Get Dave up there now!
  • Options
    PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    Bexhill and Battle isn't like other down at heel towns. It's generally very nice. Those Kippers will come home IMHO if they think losing their Tory will be a game changer.

    The Euros? Seriously? Compared to a GE?

    My old constituency of Wealden is showing wards like Polegate going Tory from chatter I've picked up. I'm doing a sortee of Eastbourne on Monday to see how the various teams are showing on the ground.
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Bexhill and Battle at 33s looks like an easy 3% return. Why isn't it 1-100 ?

    UKIP did well there in the Euros didn't they?

    Plus Greg Barker is standing down
  • Options
    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,526
    Pulpstar said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Bexhill and Battle at 33s looks like an easy 3% return. Why isn't it 1-100 ?

    UKIP did well there in the Euros didn't they?

    Plus Greg Barker is standing down
    It'll be a terriiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiible night for the Tories if Bexhill drops.
    Down to a 100 MPs if it fell.
  • Options
    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,526
    Peter_the_Punter said:

    *Betting Post - Gfrand National*

    May be too busy to post tomorrow so I'll give my Grand National selection now - Spring Heeled at 22/1 with Hills.

    As both my loyal readers will be aware, I cannot possibly improve on last year's selection but hope to equal it.

    Good luck, etc...

    Cheers.
  • Options
    OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 9,143
    Pulpstar said:

    Bexhill and Battle at 33s looks like an easy 3% return. Why isn't it 1-100 ?

    The oil changes everything. ;-)

    This is one of the seats that Farage has contested in the past, achieving 7.8% of the vote as far back as 2001. Perhaps the bookmaker has taken a wodge of money on UKIP in this seat and is inviting you to help them hedge their bets?
  • Options
    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,942
    Peter_the_Punter said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Bexhill and Battle at 33s looks like an easy 3% return. Why isn't it 1-100 ?

    UKIP did well there in the Euros didn't they?

    Plus Greg Barker is standing down
    Yes, be careful.

    Should be safe but not a complete gimme.
    I won't be backing it, the utility value of £100 is considerably more than £3 profit come GE for me at this precise moment in time ;)
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    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,994
    Mr. Taffys, that may end up happening, but not this time.
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    felixfelix Posts: 15,124
    OT: "The problem with non-doms is that virtually nobody understands what is being talked about apart from the idea that a group of people are, it is alleged, not paying enough tax. "

    Nor do they know how stuffed we could be without the tax take of these and other rich people - 30% or more of the total tax take I think. And the key thing that many non-doms could easily re-locate and take much of that tax money away with them.
  • Options
    PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    edited April 2015
    I've only caught a bit of the coverage - but it has Hollywood Blockbuster written all over it as a heist. Sky tried to drill through as many inches of concrete this morning and got nowhere. It really did take the whole Easter weekend to do it.

    There's a Sherlock story that's very similar. And it was compared to a Russian robbery in 2011, telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/russia/8445845/Sherlock-Holmes-style-robbery-in-Russian-jewel-heist.html
    The thieves appeared to have drawn their inspiration from the 'The Red-Headed League,' a popular Sherlock Holmes story that was first published in 1891, while the police said they were still trying to work out the value of what had been stolen.

    In 'The Red-Headed League', rated by Conan Doyle as one of his best stories, a pair of robbers digs up the basement of a pawn broker's shop in 19th century London in order to break into a bank vault next door.

    "The criminals dismantled a brick wall in the flat and then got into the shop where they stole various adornments," said one police source.

    They bought a flat located next to a jeweller's shop in St. Petersburg, Russia's second city, three weeks before the theft.

    The flat shared a common wall with the jewellery shop next door, and neighbours said they thought nothing of it when they heard drilling and hammering, assuming that the flat's new owners were renovating the place.

    The gang finally knocked a hole all the way through into the jewellery shop last weekend, triggering an alarm in the process. But the security guards who responded to the alarm twice assumed nothing was wrong as the doors and windows of the shop showed no signs of a break-in from the outside.
    dr_spyn said:

    Sean O'Neill ‏@TimesCrime 16s17 seconds ago
    Scotland Yard: intruder alarm activated at 00.21 on April 3 at Hatton Garden Safe Deposit but "no police response was deemed to be required"

  • Options
    PurseybearPurseybear Posts: 766
    Good thread. As Mr S says, its easy to forget how little people know about stuff political insiders take for granted. Look at the austerity topic. Noone knew what the word means.

    :-O
  • Options
    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,942
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Peter_the_Punter said:

    *Betting Post - Gfrand National*

    May be too busy to post tomorrow so I'll give my Grand National selection now - Spring Heeled at 22/1 with Hills.

    As both my loyal readers will be aware, I cannot possibly improve on last year's selection but hope to equal it.

    Good luck, etc...

    Cheers.
    He is 20s at Bet Victor, but they are paying 6 places.

    £10 E/W for me.

    The favourite "Shutthefrontdoor" is 15-2 which is utterly, utterly crazily short for the National I note.
  • Options
    TabmanTabman Posts: 1,046
    taffys said:

    ''I'd be surprised if the Conservatives got more than 3 seats in Scotland. Seven seems optimistic indeed.''

    True Mister Morris, but then Scottish politics is a complete mystery to me. They voted to stay with the UK, and now if the polls are right droves of people who voted to stay in are voting SNP....???

    Oh, and they don;t really want another referendum...

    55% voted in, 45% out. The difference being that the 45% has one party to vote for and the 55% has 3 - which means a landslide for out in FPTP terms.

  • Options
    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,526
    Plato said:

    Bexhill and Battle isn't like other down at heel towns. It's generally very nice. Those Kippers will come home IMHO if they think losing their Tory will be a game changer.

    The Euros? Seriously? Compared to a GE?

    My old constituency of Wealden is showing wards like Polegate going Tory from chatter I've picked up. I'm doing a sortee of Eastbourne on Monday to see how the various teams are showing on the ground.

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Bexhill and Battle at 33s looks like an easy 3% return. Why isn't it 1-100 ?

    UKIP did well there in the Euros didn't they?

    Plus Greg Barker is standing down
    I suspect there will be correlation of where the Kippers did well in 2014 and where they do well in 2015.
  • Options
    OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 9,143
    taffys said:

    ...Scottish politics is a complete mystery to me. They voted to stay with the UK, and now if the polls are right droves of people who voted to stay in are voting SNP....???

    That's not what is happening. In 2010, support for independence was at 28% (Scottish Social Attitudes Survey, 2010), but only 19.9% voted for the SNP - ie the SNP only attracted the votes of two-thirds of those in favour of independence.

    Right now, support for independence last autumn was at almost 45%, and pretty much all of them are determined to vote for the SNP. That's why they will sweep the board at the GE.
  • Options
    Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 49,362
    edited April 2015
    Plato said:

    I've only caught a bit of the coverage - but it has Hollywood Blockbuster written all over it as a heist. Sky tried to drill through as many inches of concrete this morning and got nowhere. It really did take the whole Easter weekend to do it.

    There's a Sherlock story that's very similar. And it was compared to a Russian robbery in 2011, telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/russia/8445845/Sherlock-Holmes-style-robbery-in-Russian-jewel-heist.html

    <

    dr_spyn said:

    Sean O'Neill ‏@TimesCrime 16s17 seconds ago
    Scotland Yard: intruder alarm activated at 00.21 on April 3 at Hatton Garden Safe Deposit but "no police response was deemed to be required"

    Inside Man! :)
  • Options
    Tissue_PriceTissue_Price Posts: 9,039
    Corals have what looks like an ill-defined "Total defections before the General Election" market with Over 0.5 priced at 9/2.

    (a) does anyone know or recall what this relates to?
    (b) depending on the answer to (a), might it not be value? Retiring MPs sometimes defect during the campaign as a PR stunt.
  • Options
    Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    Have we had any polls today?
  • Options
    PurseybearPurseybear Posts: 766
    Danny565 said:

    Have we had any polls today?

    Yes
  • Options
    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,526
    A Welshman hating the English is news? Haven't they been to Cardiff when they repeatedly tell me where I can stick the sweet chariot

    'Chavs and their sickening England flags'

    Words of Labour candidate who called for resignation of Plaid rival over 'outrageous' remarks

    http://www.walesonline.co.uk/news/wales-news/chavs-sickening-england-flags-words-9018453

  • Options
    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,942
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Plato said:

    Bexhill and Battle isn't like other down at heel towns. It's generally very nice. Those Kippers will come home IMHO if they think losing their Tory will be a game changer.

    The Euros? Seriously? Compared to a GE?

    My old constituency of Wealden is showing wards like Polegate going Tory from chatter I've picked up. I'm doing a sortee of Eastbourne on Monday to see how the various teams are showing on the ground.

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Bexhill and Battle at 33s looks like an easy 3% return. Why isn't it 1-100 ?

    UKIP did well there in the Euros didn't they?

    Plus Greg Barker is standing down
    I suspect there will be correlation of where the Kippers did well in 2014 and where they do well in 2015.
    So long as it's not Basingstoke or Kettering ;)
  • Options
    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,942
    Danny565 said:

    Have we had any polls today?

    Populus.

    Ed still PM.

    Nats still surging.

    Tories desperately trying to liberate pandas from Edinburgh Zoo :D
  • Options
    MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,290
    BenM said:

    If the General Election is most noticed news item, then unlikely to be a holiday effect in the polls and Labour's nip into the lead (on average) is genuine.

    The interesting thing is that only 24% have noticed it.

    Think about that - the GE is the lead story on every TV news programme, on the front page of most newspapers every day, the lead story on news websites almost continuously and ........

    76% haven't noticed it!
  • Options
    Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    edited April 2015
    On a non - partisan level I hugely dislike the short time gap between the manifesto launches and the postal votes going out. It feels terribly poor for our democracy that the election will be over for many voters not just before most of the election campaign - but before the rival manifestos have been debated at all.
  • Options
    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,526
    Tissue_Price said:

    Corals have what looks like an ill-defined "Total defections before the General Election" market with Over 0.5 priced at 9/2.

    (a) does anyone know or recall what this relates to?
    (b) depending on the answer to (a), might it not be value? Retiring MPs sometimes defect during the campaign as a PR stunt.

    Perhaps we could get Nick Palmer to defect to the SNP for an afternoon, then defect back.

    Purely for the benefit of PBers, I'm sure Ed Miliband would understand.
  • Options
    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,994
    Betting Post

    Backed Vettel to be top 3 at 1.7

    http://enormo-haddock.blogspot.co.uk/2015/04/china-pre-qualifying.html
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    SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    taffys said:

    ''Yes got 45%, and around that proportion are planning on voting for the SNP.''

    That being the case Mr Morris, you have to wonder if the 55 wouldn;t be better off consolidating around one party. Ruth Davidson is extremely impressive.

    Maybe 7 seats isn't out of the question. Get Dave up there now!

    That won't happen because the 55% do not belong in a single party and haven't got a single common thing apart from keeping the country in one piece.
    For the SNP voters (45%) independence is a priority which can solve every problem they have, but those who do not have that as a priority (55%), vote according to their own problems and issues, hence they split into different political parties like normal.
  • Options
    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,942
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    A Welshman hating the English is news? Haven't they been to Cardiff when they repeatedly tell me where I can stick the sweet chariot

    'Chavs and their sickening England flags'

    Words of Labour candidate who called for resignation of Plaid rival over 'outrageous' remarks

    http://www.walesonline.co.uk/news/wales-news/chavs-sickening-england-flags-words-9018453

    Asking someone to resign over something they wrote 14 years ago ?!

    Christ on a bike. Cheap and tawdry political point scoring from Labour there.
  • Options
    Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    MikeL said:

    BenM said:

    If the General Election is most noticed news item, then unlikely to be a holiday effect in the polls and Labour's nip into the lead (on average) is genuine.

    The interesting thing is that only 24% have noticed it.

    Think about that - the GE is the lead story on every TV news programme, on the front page of most newspapers every day, the lead story on news websites almost continuously and ........

    76% haven't noticed it!
    Or to be fair they've noticed something else more. The Alps plane crash etc are important news stories and just because you name that as number one doesn't mean the election hasn't been noticed - couldn't it be number 2?
  • Options
    Tim_BTim_B Posts: 7,669
    Plato said:

    I've only caught a bit of the coverage - but it has Hollywood Blockbuster written all over it as a heist. Sky tried to drill through as many inches of concrete this morning and got nowhere. It really did take the whole Easter weekend to do it.

    There's a Sherlock story that's very similar. And it was compared to a Russian robbery in 2011, telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/russia/8445845/Sherlock-Holmes-style-robbery-in-Russian-jewel-heist.html

    The thieves appeared to have drawn their inspiration from the 'The Red-Headed League,' a popular Sherlock Holmes story that was first published in 1891, while the police said they were still trying to work out the value of what had been stolen.

    In 'The Red-Headed League', rated by Conan Doyle as one of his best stories, a pair of robbers digs up the basement of a pawn broker's shop in 19th century London in order to break into a bank vault next door.

    "The criminals dismantled a brick wall in the flat and then got into the shop where they stole various adornments," said one police source.

    They bought a flat located next to a jeweller's shop in St. Petersburg, Russia's second city, three weeks before the theft.

    The flat shared a common wall with the jewellery shop next door, and neighbours said they thought nothing of it when they heard drilling and hammering, assuming that the flat's new owners were renovating the place.

    The gang finally knocked a hole all the way through into the jewellery shop last weekend, triggering an alarm in the process. But the security guards who responded to the alarm twice assumed nothing was wrong as the doors and windows of the shop showed no signs of a break-in from the outside.
    dr_spyn said:

    Sean O'Neill ‏@TimesCrime 16s17 seconds ago
    Scotland Yard: intruder alarm activated at 00.21 on April 3 at Hatton Garden Safe Deposit but "no police response was deemed to be required"



    It sounds reminiscent of the Lloyds Bank Baker Street robbery, some 45 or so years ago, which was featured in the movie "The Bank Job". At the time I worked for Castrol on Marylebone Road, and that was my bank branch. For the first few days after there was a steady flow of news to customers, but then it just stopped and they wouldn't say anything. There were all sorts of rumors.
  • Options
    SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    I see Dan Hodges has started writing his autobiography:
    http://www.spectator.co.uk/features/9494602/ed-miliband-could-still-win-heres-what-would-happen-next/

    "Within an hour, the analysts who spent the past year mocking him will start to talk about his resilience under pressure, his single-mindedness, the bold new direction in which Britain will go. This is how punditry works; all victories (and defeats) are retrospectively declared inevitable."
  • Options
    dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,288
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    A Welshman hating the English is news? Haven't they been to Cardiff when they repeatedly tell me where I can stick the sweet chariot

    'Chavs and their sickening England flags'

    Words of Labour candidate who called for resignation of Plaid rival over 'outrageous' remarks

    http://www.walesonline.co.uk/news/wales-news/chavs-sickening-england-flags-words-9018453

    Re-educate, re-educate, re-educate. Looks as if Labour has its own Bara brith.
  • Options
    taffystaffys Posts: 9,753
    edited April 2015
    ''Chavs and their sickening England flags''

    Given the labour and PC candidates have both made ar$es of themselves, is Ceiridigion a 'marginal...??'
  • Options
    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,942
    taffys said:

    ''Chavs and their sickening England flags''

    Given the labour and PC candidates have both made ar$es of themselves, is Ceiridigion a 'marginal...??'

    Seeing as its being defended by the Lib Dems, who knows ?!
  • Options
    Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 49,362
    Pulpstar said:

    Danny565 said:

    Have we had any polls today?

    Populus.

    Ed still PM.

    Nats still surging.

    Tories desperately trying to liberate pandas from Edinburgh Zoo :D
    132 elected Tories in Scotland!!!
  • Options
    Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 49,362
    taffys said:

    ''Chavs and their sickening England flags''

    Given the labour and PC candidates have both made ar$es of themselves, is Ceiridigion a 'marginal...??'

    Cardigan, surely? :lol:
  • Options
    SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Plato said:

    Bexhill and Battle isn't like other down at heel towns. It's generally very nice. Those Kippers will come home IMHO if they think losing their Tory will be a game changer.

    The Euros? Seriously? Compared to a GE?

    My old constituency of Wealden is showing wards like Polegate going Tory from chatter I've picked up. I'm doing a sortee of Eastbourne on Monday to see how the various teams are showing on the ground.

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Bexhill and Battle at 33s looks like an easy 3% return. Why isn't it 1-100 ?

    UKIP did well there in the Euros didn't they?

    Plus Greg Barker is standing down
    I suspect there will be correlation of where the Kippers did well in 2014 and where they do well in 2015.
    I think there will be correlation but it won't be that big, unless everyone starts talking about europe.
  • Options
    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,994
    Qualifying starts at 8am, I think, tomorrow. It's not on BBC TV, so if you want fancy moving pictures you'll need Sky.

    The race, I think, will be at 7am. Not too bad, certainly compared to the ridiculous 5am start in Australia.

    As an aside, it's quite interesting how difficult I still find betting on F1. Been doing it for a little while and, with rare exceptions (last time's 1.85 on Raikkonen), it still feels like glorified guesswork.
  • Options
    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,942
    Sunil_Prasannan said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Danny565 said:

    Have we had any polls today?

    Populus.

    Ed still PM.

    Nats still surging.

    Tories desperately trying to liberate pandas from Edinburgh Zoo :D
    132 elected Tories in Scotland!!!
    The Scottish Conservative vote looks like it could be one of the most hopelessly inefficient ever at this GE.

    Mind you Scottish Labour won't be much better.
  • Options
    PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    Surely Hoodie would be more appropriate?
    Sunil_Prasannan said:

    taffys said:

    ''Chavs and their sickening England flags''

    Given the labour and PC candidates have both made ar$es of themselves, is Ceiridigion a 'marginal...??'

    Cardigan, surely? :lol:
  • Options
    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,994
    Mr. Pulpstar, even if they get 7 seats? ;)
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    DairDair Posts: 6,108
    Plato said:

    I've only caught a bit of the coverage - but it has Hollywood Blockbuster written all over it as a heist. Sky tried to drill through as many inches of concrete this morning and got nowhere. It really did take the whole Easter weekend to do it.

    It is already a (rather good) film with Jason Statham.

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Bank_Job
  • Options
    SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    Pulpstar said:

    Danny565 said:

    Have we had any polls today?

    Populus.

    Ed still PM.

    Nats still surging.

    Tories desperately trying to liberate pandas from Edinburgh Zoo :D
    Well scotland is the only place where there is a swing from Labour to the Tories, so they can keep dreaming.
  • Options
    Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 49,362
    Dair said:

    Plato said:

    I've only caught a bit of the coverage - but it has Hollywood Blockbuster written all over it as a heist. Sky tried to drill through as many inches of concrete this morning and got nowhere. It really did take the whole Easter weekend to do it.

    It is already a (rather good) film with Jason Statham.

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Bank_Job
    I liked Inside Man with Clive Owen, Denzel Washington and Jodie Foster:

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Inside_Man

  • Options
    DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,343
    MikeL said:

    BenM said:

    If the General Election is most noticed news item, then unlikely to be a holiday effect in the polls and Labour's nip into the lead (on average) is genuine.

    The interesting thing is that only 24% have noticed it.

    Think about that - the GE is the lead story on every TV news programme, on the front page of most newspapers every day, the lead story on news websites almost continuously and ........

    76% haven't noticed it!
    And we worry about some stupid question or answer at PMQs or a MoE movement in a poll.

    As Mike says, a useful reality check.
  • Options
    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,942
    Morris_Dancer said:

    Mr. Pulpstar, even if they get 7 seats? ;)

    7 seats would be ... expensive ;)

    A sweep of the borders is what I'll be expecting from the Tories and for their vote to hold up in places like Stirling and Edinburgh.
  • Options
    Tim_BTim_B Posts: 7,669
    Sunil_Prasannan said:

    Dair said:

    Plato said:

    I've only caught a bit of the coverage - but it has Hollywood Blockbuster written all over it as a heist. Sky tried to drill through as many inches of concrete this morning and got nowhere. It really did take the whole Easter weekend to do it.

    It is already a (rather good) film with Jason Statham.

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Bank_Job
    I liked Inside Man with Clive Owen, Denzel Washington and Jodie Foster:

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Inside_Man

    Inside Man is fiction, 'The Bank Job' is based on a real robbery, even down to the location shooting.
  • Options
    Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 49,362
    Tim_B said:

    Sunil_Prasannan said:

    Dair said:

    Plato said:

    I've only caught a bit of the coverage - but it has Hollywood Blockbuster written all over it as a heist. Sky tried to drill through as many inches of concrete this morning and got nowhere. It really did take the whole Easter weekend to do it.

    It is already a (rather good) film with Jason Statham.

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Bank_Job
    I liked Inside Man with Clive Owen, Denzel Washington and Jodie Foster:

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Inside_Man

    Inside Man is fiction, 'The Bank Job' is based on a real robbery, even down to the location shooting.
    Still a good film, though.
  • Options
    Tim_BTim_B Posts: 7,669
    DavidL said:

    MikeL said:

    BenM said:

    If the General Election is most noticed news item, then unlikely to be a holiday effect in the polls and Labour's nip into the lead (on average) is genuine.

    The interesting thing is that only 24% have noticed it.

    Think about that - the GE is the lead story on every TV news programme, on the front page of most newspapers every day, the lead story on news websites almost continuously and ........

    76% haven't noticed it!
    And we worry about some stupid question or answer at PMQs or a MoE movement in a poll.

    As Mike says, a useful reality check.
    You are making an assumption that people watch TV news. I bet news broadcasts in the UK don't get great ratings, much as they don't here.
  • Options
    SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    Sunil_Prasannan said:

    Dair said:

    Plato said:

    I've only caught a bit of the coverage - but it has Hollywood Blockbuster written all over it as a heist. Sky tried to drill through as many inches of concrete this morning and got nowhere. It really did take the whole Easter weekend to do it.

    It is already a (rather good) film with Jason Statham.

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Bank_Job
    I liked Inside Man with Clive Owen, Denzel Washington and Jodie Foster:

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Inside_Man

    Talking about that kind of robberies:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TNMSsis4JwI
  • Options
    MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,290
    Philip_Thompson said:

    MikeL said:

    BenM said:

    If the General Election is most noticed news item, then unlikely to be a holiday effect in the polls and Labour's nip into the lead (on average) is genuine.

    The interesting thing is that only 24% have noticed it.

    Think about that - the GE is the lead story on every TV news programme, on the front page of most newspapers every day, the lead story on news websites almost continuously and ........

    76% haven't noticed it!
    Or to be fair they've noticed something else more. The Alps plane crash etc are important news stories and just because you name that as number one doesn't mean the election hasn't been noticed - couldn't it be number 2?
    No - people weren't just asked to name one story. Per Populus:

    "The question was open-ended and people could name any news story."
  • Options
    PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    What's CBS like as a channel? I'm toying with subbing to it.
    Tim_B said:

    Sunil_Prasannan said:

    Dair said:

    Plato said:

    I've only caught a bit of the coverage - but it has Hollywood Blockbuster written all over it as a heist. Sky tried to drill through as many inches of concrete this morning and got nowhere. It really did take the whole Easter weekend to do it.

    It is already a (rather good) film with Jason Statham.

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Bank_Job
    I liked Inside Man with Clive Owen, Denzel Washington and Jodie Foster:

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Inside_Man

    Inside Man is fiction, 'The Bank Job' is based on a real robbery, even down to the location shooting.
  • Options
    PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    I heard ages ago that 50% of news watchers in the US do it with the sound turned down.

    Does that seem likely?
    Tim_B said:

    DavidL said:

    MikeL said:

    BenM said:

    If the General Election is most noticed news item, then unlikely to be a holiday effect in the polls and Labour's nip into the lead (on average) is genuine.

    The interesting thing is that only 24% have noticed it.

    Think about that - the GE is the lead story on every TV news programme, on the front page of most newspapers every day, the lead story on news websites almost continuously and ........

    76% haven't noticed it!
    And we worry about some stupid question or answer at PMQs or a MoE movement in a poll.

    As Mike says, a useful reality check.
    You are making an assumption that people watch TV news. I bet news broadcasts in the UK don't get great ratings, much as they don't here.
  • Options
    [Deleted User][Deleted User] Posts: 0
    edited April 2015
    What are the odds of the Tories ending up with more Scottish seats than Labour?
  • Options
    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,526
    edited April 2015
    A Michael Green is standing against Grant Shapps Welwyn Hatfield
  • Options
    DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,343
    Tim_B said:

    DavidL said:

    MikeL said:

    BenM said:

    If the General Election is most noticed news item, then unlikely to be a holiday effect in the polls and Labour's nip into the lead (on average) is genuine.

    The interesting thing is that only 24% have noticed it.

    Think about that - the GE is the lead story on every TV news programme, on the front page of most newspapers every day, the lead story on news websites almost continuously and ........

    76% haven't noticed it!
    And we worry about some stupid question or answer at PMQs or a MoE movement in a poll.

    As Mike says, a useful reality check.
    You are making an assumption that people watch TV news. I bet news broadcasts in the UK don't get great ratings, much as they don't here.
    I think it shows all too painfully how much of a minority sport politics is. Somewhere below lacrosse I would say.

    No wonder those who assume X or Y is going to move the polls are invariably disappointed.
  • Options
    Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 49,362
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    A Michael Green is standing against Grant Shapps Welwyn Hatfield

    Standing for the "Green" Party? :lol:
  • Options
    MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,290
    Pulpstar said:

    Sunil_Prasannan said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Danny565 said:

    Have we had any polls today?

    Populus.

    Ed still PM.

    Nats still surging.

    Tories desperately trying to liberate pandas from Edinburgh Zoo :D
    132 elected Tories in Scotland!!!
    The Scottish Conservative vote looks like it could be one of the most hopelessly inefficient ever at this GE.
    Well if they rise from 16% to 18% and go from 1 to 3 seats then it would be a lot more efficient than last time.

    Sure it's odds against but it's not totally out of the question.
  • Options
    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,942
    Patrick said:

    What are the odds of the Tories ending up with more Scottish seats than Labour?

    9-2 maybe ?

    (Not offering that)
  • Options
    Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 49,362
    Plato said:

    What's CBS like as a channel? I'm toying with subbing to it.

    Tim_B said:

    Sunil_Prasannan said:

    Dair said:

    Plato said:

    I've only caught a bit of the coverage - but it has Hollywood Blockbuster written all over it as a heist. Sky tried to drill through as many inches of concrete this morning and got nowhere. It really did take the whole Easter weekend to do it.

    It is already a (rather good) film with Jason Statham.

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Bank_Job
    I liked Inside Man with Clive Owen, Denzel Washington and Jodie Foster:

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Inside_Man

    Inside Man is fiction, 'The Bank Job' is based on a real robbery, even down to the location shooting.
    You can get CBS Reality, CBS Action on Freeview (Channels 64 and 66)
  • Options
    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,942
    MikeL said:



    Pulpstar said:

    Sunil_Prasannan said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Danny565 said:

    Have we had any polls today?

    Populus.

    Ed still PM.

    Nats still surging.

    Tories desperately trying to liberate pandas from Edinburgh Zoo :D
    132 elected Tories in Scotland!!!
    The Scottish Conservative vote looks like it could be one of the most hopelessly inefficient ever at this GE.
    Well if they rise from 16% to 18% and go from 1 to 3 seats then it would be a lot more efficient than last time.

    Sure it's odds against but it's not totally out of the question.
    Ruth Davidson has done an amazing job to hold the Con vote up. I really don't appreciate the likes of Michael Gove undermining her on Newsnight !
This discussion has been closed.