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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The Tories move to win the elder brothers’ vote – a wise mo
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The Tories move to win the elder brothers’ vote – a wise move?
Embarrassing: Way too personal from Michael Fallon against Ed Miliband via @SamCoatesTimes pic.twitter.com/wU64AVMvCD
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Jim Murphy has some peculiar affectations but in that crowd, he looked normal. The women performed better and Ruth Davidson held up well.
Further to the last thread, the British Election Study estimates turnout by age in 2010 as follows: www.parliament.uk/briefing-papers/SN01467.pdf
So in spite of what I said about the dangers of trying to "un-skew" polls, the YouGov targets do look odd.
The Con to UKIP switchers.
Gay Marriage and Defence is one of their priorities.
A bit like when Labour go for the Toffs, they aren't appealing to whole electorate, just a certain segment.
I dunno how the stats work on that, but I'd have thought that as we have a birth rate over 2.0 there should be more younger brothers than older ones on the register, no?
What am I missing?
Unlikley, mind you, but I can dream...
Fallon was actually quite good on the telly. Measured, firm, just what people are looking for in a party (or even leader).
As for your headline, have you been taking lessons from Katharine Viner? I would say "boost for UKIP". But then my party isn't running along at sub-10%.
In the opposition debate next week, you know Sturgeon is going to bring up Trident and try and skewer Ed.
Either Ed whole heartedly endorses trident, and buggers up SLAB or he goes along with the SNP line, which the Tories will flag up, because a Lab/SNP government with a Scotland First approach is utterly toxic for Lab in England.
As Admiral Ackbar said "It's a trap"
ISIS is a bit player if brutal. They wouldn't hesitate to use dirty bombs IMO. I certainly wouldn't want to encourage them into trying it on here if we dropped our nuclear deterrent to save a few quid now. It's a *strategic* defense programme - those don't change without very solid reasons over decades.
Elder brothers will tend to die earlier, but they will also qualify to vote earlier too, and I think the latter effect will slightly edge out the other.
@MrHarryCole: Incase u missed, he said twice:"We would not enter confidence and supply agreement with the Labour Party that committed to Trident renewal"
This suggests they would vote against a Miliband Queen's Speech. Dave is PM...
In England people are more pro a trident replacement.
Also, what Plato said.
BBC Trending ✔ @BBCtrending
#BradfordWest started trending online - because of a claim by George Galloway about his opponent's forced marriage http://bbc.in/1GODjEG
*cough*Syria*cough*
(For multiple siblings actual relationships cancel out e.g.
Three brothers - has two older brothers and two younger brothers.
LAB 33% (+1) CON 30% (-3) LD 8% (0) UKIP 19% (+3) GREEN 4% (-1)
........and a bounce for UKIP, what could be better than that?
Are the above figures turnout of registered electors or turnout of population? I suspect of registered electors - that is how turnout is reported when we get election results.
Yet pollsters are polling amongst the whole population. Some reports say only approx 50% of 18 to 24s are on the register.
1. Ed is weak. Too weak. But he stabbed his brother in the back. Too strong. Too ruthless.
2. Can't trust Labour. They might do a coalition deal with a party who won't commit to 4 boats. Like the LibDems. Who the Tories did a coalition deal with and will do again
But anyway, if the aim was distract away from their carcrash of a day yesterday defending non-doms, perhaps its worked. But a car crash universally panned to distract from a car crash universally panned? Wow, Crosby really must know what he's doing, because to those of us outside Tory towers the campaign is beginning to resemble that little girl giving Cameron the head desk yesterday.
Ilford North Tory majority in 2010 GE = 11.5%
Ilford North Tory majority in 2014 Locals = 2.0%
They have explicitly ruled out backing a Tory Queen Speech.
tom bradby ✔ @tombradby
One of the Tories strongest suits is that people view Cameron as essentially decent. But doesn't this attack look cheap and a bit mean?
How do Germany, Norway, Spain, Italy, Switzerland, Sweden, Finland, Japan all cope ?
Tbh I reckon the countries with Nuclear programs should at least get some subs back from the Non-Nuclear NATO members.
In practise if push came to shove we're completely tied down to the USA if WW3 happens anyway.
Terrrrrible day for the Tories.
He'd make a Safe Pair Of Hands if Cameron did step down defeated/whilst leadership contest was in progress.
MORI reckoned almost exactly a 3:1 ratio between 18-24s and over 65s last time: https://www.ipsos-mori.com/Assets/Docs/Polls/Aggregate for web 210510.pdf
Thanks Tissue_Price - As soon as you look at those numbers it's obvious that they look far more reasonable.
And note MORI are using over 65s, not 60s.
Huge difference from today's YouGov.
Ahem!!!
https://twitter.com/Sunil_P2/status/585149148980187136
There's a lot to be said for this - it's cheaper, and it's less of an outrageous violation of the non-proliferation treaty than the UK's current position.
ASIPM.
I'd increase defence spending to 2.5% of GDP and spend the money on the Navy and our conventional forces.
It is a shame, the RAF really have become the few.
So the SNP are totally irrelevant re Trident.
I will be following the campaign too, from time to time.
I don't do golf at all - but Masters Sunday on the radio [R5] is great.
The most telling part of his attitude her is that he doesn't make any statement against forced marriage, he merely claims that Shah was 16 not 15 when forced into marriage against her will.
He genuinely seems to think this makes it all OK.
As I said, scumbag.
I'm on Speith and Dustin J...
I'm not saying this is robust because - amongst other things - YouGov are not weighting to be accurate within age groups. But it's intriguing enough to keep an eye on.
If we expanded say, The Paras, 16 Air Assault Brigade and 3 Commando Brigade, into 3 full Divisions, I reckon that would make give us more military clout than nuclear weapons.
Here's a clue. Aircraft Carriers have no defence against Ballistic Missiles (1940s technology). None.
and Ernie Els for old times @125/1 £20 EW.
Sweden and Switzerland rely on large conventional forces and conscription. They assume that no-one would come to their aid if they were attacked; they would fight alone.
Then there are Australia and New Zealand. Neither comes under 'the NATO umbrella'.
So, quite a lot of countries seem to consider themselves secure without having nuclear weapons or belonging to NATO.
I am no EdM fan, but today's attacks on him do seem a touch excessive and ever so slightly hysterical. Weird Wallace turning into a vindictive psychopath. It doesn't quite compute. Still, the soft UKIP focus groups must be telling the Tories they will work.
Beyond that, pretty piffling significance I expect.
It epitomises the dismal awfulness of the Tory non-campaign that those in charge are investing so much in it.... No, because they'll sure as damnit vote down Dave's Queen's Speech. Sturgeon has explicitly said she will lock Cameron out of No 10.
Ed will serve as a minority PM, I expect, no coalition, no confidence and supply required. He will make do with votes from the Lib Dems and SNP as required, no doubt with concessions, but Trident won't be an issue because it will go through with Tory support. I expect Cameron will do what Howard did, unless there is a very great chance of a pathetically weak wafer thin Miliband administration that only gets close to the line by cobbling together all of the "others" and the Tories won the popular vote convincingly but fell short on seats. In that scenario, I suspect Cameron may himself be the best "caretaker" the Tories have until a leadership election some time hence.
Whatever happens, Cameron's time as leader will end in 2015. I am sure of that.