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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » At this stage in the marginals having enough volunteer foot

SystemSystem Posts: 12,217
edited April 2015 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » At this stage in the marginals having enough volunteer footsoldiers on the ground matters most

We are now in what is legally termed the “short campaign” when the amount of money that can be spent by each candidate is strictly laid down. The maximum is £8,700 + 6p or 9p per elector depending on whether it is borough or county constituency. So in an urban seat with 70,000 on the electoral role the maximum that can be spent between now and polling day is £12,900.

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Comments

  • First ..... again!
  • ArtistArtist Posts: 1,893
    The strange thing is that Labour were ahead of the Tories on this even before the start of the short campaign. What did the Conservatives spend all their money on between January and April if it wasn't leaflets, I wonder.
  • IndigoIndigo Posts: 9,966
    edited April 2015
    Oops. No doms not paying taxes bad, Labour luvvies not paying taxes, good. Glad we have that settled.
    A leading QC who advised Labour on its non-doms tax crackdown represented controversial film investment schemes that sheltered money for hundreds of wealthy celebrities including Sir Alex Ferguson and Take That.

    The Telegraph has established that Mr Maugham, a Labour suporter, has been in discussions with Labour about the policy for six weeks and played a role in designing it.

    Mr Maugham represented Eclipse 35, a high profile scheme which purported to finance films such as Disney's Enchanted and Underdog.
    Earlier this month the Eclipse 35 scheme was branded a cover story for tax avoidance by the Court of Appeal which had helped investors escape £117million in taxes.
    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/ed-miliband/11522525/Labours-non-dom-adviser-represented-celebrity-tax-dodge-film-schemes.html
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,947
    To cut against Mike's argument, the seats where Labour have big leads on contacts - Kingswood and Loughbrough - seem to be the safest Tory holds.

    Whisper it - but maybe, just maybe - the Tories have the better targeted approach, zeroing in on those they have identified as possibles and not bothering with those previously identified as strongly for another party or Do Not Vote?
  • felixfelix Posts: 15,173

    To cut against Mike's argument, the seats where Labour have big leads on contacts - Kingswood and Loughbrough - seem to be the safest Tory holds.

    Whisper it - but maybe, just maybe - the Tories have the better targeted approach, zeroing in on those they have identified as possibles and not bothering with those previously identified as strongly for another party or Do Not Vote?

    At the very least it doesn't seem to be making any difference. Maybe it depends on the quality rather than the quantity of the contact.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,947
    And if it is foot-soldiers on the ground that DOES matter most, then in Torbay, Ashcroft gave Cons a 9% contact lead over the LibDems.

    The Tories are also making a MUCH greater push at Council level, with carpet-bombing of leaflets in wards that previously only had paper candidates who didn't leaflet at all. This might be a factor in some other seats too.

    If Torbay stays LibDem, it won't be for lack of foot-soldiers marching under the blue flag.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,947
    Oh, and yesterday was a big win for the Conservatives on their message for this election: The choice between Competence and Chaos.

    The two Eds Laurel and Hardy routine was comedy gold.
  • And if it is foot-soldiers on the ground that DOES matter most, then in Torbay, Ashcroft gave Cons a 9% contact lead over the LibDems.

    The Tories are also making a MUCH greater push at Council level, with carpet-bombing of leaflets in wards that previously only had paper candidates who didn't leaflet at all. This might be a factor in some other seats too.

    If Torbay stays LibDem, it won't be for lack of foot-soldiers marching under the blue flag.

    MM - What's your current feeling please about how the vote will go in Torbay on 7 May?
  • Moses_Moses_ Posts: 4,865
    As I said yesterday .......

    Labour never did anything wrong yesterday. BBC expunge split at top of Labour. Can anyone? Anyone at all really believe that had this been any one but Labour it would have been buried quite so quick? Like I said it would not make the morning news...... QED


    Check for yourself...." Even if it is tedious.

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/32227680

  • Moses_Moses_ Posts: 4,865

    Oh, and yesterday was a big win for the Conservatives on their message for this election: The choice between Competence and Chaos.

    The two Eds Laurel and Hardy routine was comedy gold.

    No it ain't

    According to the BbC Cameron having a disagreement with a schoolgirl merits more news than a major difference at the top of Labour. FFS !!

    Tedious but fecking predictable.....
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,947

    And if it is foot-soldiers on the ground that DOES matter most, then in Torbay, Ashcroft gave Cons a 9% contact lead over the LibDems.

    The Tories are also making a MUCH greater push at Council level, with carpet-bombing of leaflets in wards that previously only had paper candidates who didn't leaflet at all. This might be a factor in some other seats too.

    If Torbay stays LibDem, it won't be for lack of foot-soldiers marching under the blue flag.

    MM - What's your current feeling please about how the vote will go in Torbay on 7 May?
    Without wishing to "do a Marcus"...... Still close - Sanders does have a significant personal vote (but hardly justified from some serious grumbles about outcomes I have heard in specific cases). Kevin Foster has put in the effort and has for some while been outplaying a weakened local LibDem force. UKIP vote wilting some lately. That said, a very volatile electorate - about the only permutation of vote swap I haven't personally found is 2010 UKIP voter - > 2015 Tory. The key is probably 2010 LibDems - > 2015 Will Not Vote, of which there are quite a few. If at the last minute they come out for Sanders....who knows.

    If pushed - LibDem vote in the range 33-36%, Tory vote 36-39%. Could still be a knife-edge, but I'd rather be in Foster's shoes than Sanders.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,947
    oh, and still NOT ONE VOTER has raised gay marriage, even in passing....
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,947
    Moses_ said:

    Oh, and yesterday was a big win for the Conservatives on their message for this election: The choice between Competence and Chaos.

    The two Eds Laurel and Hardy routine was comedy gold.

    No it ain't

    According to the BbC Cameron having a disagreement with a schoolgirl merits more news than a major difference at the top of Labour. FFS !!

    Tedious but fecking predictable.....
    Another lippy one who can't actually vote though!

    The trouble is, there is a collective mind-set at the Beeb that no-one who has their full mental faculties could ever seriously choose to vote Tory. Smug, patronising - and wrong.
  • peter_from_putneypeter_from_putney Posts: 6,956
    edited April 2015

    And if it is foot-soldiers on the ground that DOES matter most, then in Torbay, Ashcroft gave Cons a 9% contact lead over the LibDems.

    The Tories are also making a MUCH greater push at Council level, with carpet-bombing of leaflets in wards that previously only had paper candidates who didn't leaflet at all. This might be a factor in some other seats too.

    If Torbay stays LibDem, it won't be for lack of foot-soldiers marching under the blue flag.

    MM - What's your current feeling please about how the vote will go in Torbay on 7 May?
    Without wishing to "do a Marcus"...... Still close - Sanders does have a significant personal vote (but hardly justified from some serious grumbles about outcomes I have heard in specific cases). Kevin Foster has put in the effort and has for some while been outplaying a weakened local LibDem force. UKIP vote wilting some lately. That said, a very volatile electorate - about the only permutation of vote swap I haven't personally found is 2010 UKIP voter - > 2015 Tory. The key is probably 2010 LibDems - > 2015 Will Not Vote, of which there are quite a few. If at the last minute they come out for Sanders....who knows.

    If pushed - LibDem vote in the range 33-36%, Tory vote 36-39%. Could still be a knife-edge, but I'd rather be in Foster's shoes than Sanders.
    Thanks Mark - that very helpful summary of the state of play seems to just about justify the current betting odds, where the LibDems are narrow favourites at 10/11 with the Tories at Evens, but hardly encourages one to bet the farm on the Blue Team winning.
  • GadflyGadfly Posts: 1,191
    Moving average chart of the 100 most recent YouGov polls. Click to enlarge...

    Simple, Free Image and File Hosting at MediaFire
  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549

    oh, and still NOT ONE VOTER has raised gay marriage, even in passing....

    THey won't. They are voting UKIP.
  • IndigoIndigo Posts: 9,966

    oh, and still NOT ONE VOTER has raised gay marriage, even in passing....

    They are too busy yelling at you not to let that idiot Miliband get election I guess ;)
  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549

    Oh, and yesterday was a big win for the Conservatives on their message for this election: The choice between Competence and Chaos.

    The two Eds Laurel and Hardy routine was comedy gold.

    Massive win for Edward Samuel Miliband. In touch with the common man and not the friend of tax dodging rich.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,947
    surbiton said:

    oh, and still NOT ONE VOTER has raised gay marriage, even in passing....

    THey won't. They are voting UKIP.
    I've talked to Kippers too. Not an issue.

  • IndigoIndigo Posts: 9,966
    Apropos yesterdays resurrection of the discussion on Labour genius at wanting to cap the energy prices, worth listening to Mr Hannan discussing how similar recent actions by the EU have had similar effects of actually ending up costing people more money.

    www.youtube.com/watch?v=fVUm2QH68fs
  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    Indigo said:

    Oops. No doms not paying taxes bad, Labour luvvies not paying taxes, good. Glad we have that settled.

    A leading QC who advised Labour on its non-doms tax crackdown represented controversial film investment schemes that sheltered money for hundreds of wealthy celebrities including Sir Alex Ferguson and Take That.

    The Telegraph has established that Mr Maugham, a Labour suporter, has been in discussions with Labour about the policy for six weeks and played a role in designing it.

    Mr Maugham represented Eclipse 35, a high profile scheme which purported to finance films such as Disney's Enchanted and Underdog.
    Earlier this month the Eclipse 35 scheme was branded a cover story for tax avoidance by the Court of Appeal which had helped investors escape £117million in taxes.
    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/ed-miliband/11522525/Labours-non-dom-adviser-represented-celebrity-tax-dodge-film-schemes.html

    That's why the law needs changing. It appears to me that you believe Labour supporters should abide by future laws.
  • MillsyMillsy Posts: 900
    Boring core vote stuff on non-doms and Trident. Labour spent a whole day obsessing about reforming a tax affecting a few thousand people that will cost the UK money, while Tories are going to talk about billions of pounds spent on a few nuclear subs.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,717
    This seat isn’t a marginal so I’m not surprised that we’ve only been canvassed once (by Labour) and had one piece of literature (Labour again). However I drove into Colchester last night along the Old London Road and there was no sign whatsoever that there was an election going on. No posters, no window stickers (that I could see, anyway).
  • IndigoIndigo Posts: 9,966
    edited April 2015
    surbiton said:

    Indigo said:

    Oops. No doms not paying taxes bad, Labour luvvies not paying taxes, good. Glad we have that settled.

    A leading QC who advised Labour on its non-doms tax crackdown represented controversial film investment schemes that sheltered money for hundreds of wealthy celebrities including Sir Alex Ferguson and Take That.

    The Telegraph has established that Mr Maugham, a Labour suporter, has been in discussions with Labour about the policy for six weeks and played a role in designing it.

    Mr Maugham represented Eclipse 35, a high profile scheme which purported to finance films such as Disney's Enchanted and Underdog.
    Earlier this month the Eclipse 35 scheme was branded a cover story for tax avoidance by the Court of Appeal which had helped investors escape £117million in taxes.
    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/ed-miliband/11522525/Labours-non-dom-adviser-represented-celebrity-tax-dodge-film-schemes.html
    That's why the law needs changing. It appears to me that you believe Labour supporters should abide by future laws.

    If the court of appeal branded it a cover for tax avoidance, that means it was currently avoiding tax under the current regulations, the appeal court doesn't adjudicate on or enforce future laws, as you so quaintly put it. Don'r pretend for one second that you wouldnt be up in arms if exactly the same ruling had been made against bankers, company directors or whatever the leftie hate figure du jour is.
  • PurseybearPurseybear Posts: 766
    Just did a YG VI. Mass of questions about tv programs after drove me nuts. Seriously sceptical about these online polls. Who can be bothered to do them except us self selecting nerds?

    I'm twitchy about the polls like never before.
  • PurseybearPurseybear Posts: 766
    surbiton said:

    Oh, and yesterday was a big win for the Conservatives on their message for this election: The choice between Competence and Chaos.

    The two Eds Laurel and Hardy routine was comedy gold.

    Massive win for Edward Samuel Miliband. In touch with the common man and not the friend of tax dodging rich.
    Yeah NonDom trended no.1 on twitter. Not sure pple think about the intricacies of it just the idea that there are rich spongers.

    Labour win.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,947

    This seat isn’t a marginal so I’m not surprised that we’ve only been canvassed once (by Labour) and had one piece of literature (Labour again). However I drove into Colchester last night along the Old London Road and there was no sign whatsoever that there was an election going on. No posters, no window stickers (that I could see, anyway).

    Doesn't bode well for the LibDems. They are normally the first to show off their orange diamonds of defiance....
  • PurseybearPurseybear Posts: 766
    surbiton said:

    oh, and still NOT ONE VOTER has raised gay marriage, even in passing....

    THey won't. They are voting UKIP.
    But lying to the pollsters? Ukip vote share is sliding in polls.
  • TheWatcherTheWatcher Posts: 5,262
    surbiton said:

    Oh, and yesterday was a big win for the Conservatives on their message for this election: The choice between Competence and Chaos.

    The two Eds Laurel and Hardy routine was comedy gold.

    Massive win for Edward Samuel Miliband. In touch with the common man and not the friend of tax dodging rich.
    Meanwhile, look who's popped out from under their rock.

    'I'm not super rich, insists multi-millionaire Blair: Former PM accused of being out of touch after saying his earnings go towards 'infrastructure' around him'


    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3031245/I-m-not-super-rich-insists-multi-millionaire-Blair-Former-PM-accused-touch-saying-earning-infrastructure-him.html
  • I can tell you that in hove we've been getting bits of paper from the tories almost every other day. although the pace has slowed lately. Meanwhile hardly anything has been delivered from labour.

    What I can't say is whether this means the tories are desperate, labour have given up, or if labour are getting complacent and not even bothering to target unknowns.... Any ideas?
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @TheRedRag: This explains the Labour #Nondomnishambles in full. http://t.co/YbTySt8qkp
  • PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    What has EdM been smoking? telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/labour/11522877/General-election-2015-sketch-Ed-Ballss-non-dom-nightmare.html
    Meanwhile, Ed Miliband was at Warwick University, giving a speech. Labour’s non-doms idea, he declared, “speaks to the big choice at this election”. (Whatever you think of Mr Miliband’s policies, you’ve got to admit: he’s taking English syntax in exciting new directions.) He dismissed questions about the Balls volte-face: “It’s the right thing to do and it’s what Ed Balls said on the radio this morning.”

    Then, at the end, he suddenly said something odd.

    “The Conservative party,” he confided, “is a virtual party. They exist as a sort of Lynton Crosby hologram. They don’t really exist.”

    His audience laughed uncertainly.

    “The hologram’s not working very well at the moment,” he went on, mysteriously. “But they don’t exist in reality.”

    Somehow or other, this was apparently meant as a metaphor for the assertion that Labour has more volunteers delivering leaflets than the Conservatives have.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,947
    Plato said:

    What has EdM been smoking? telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/labour/11522877/General-election-2015-sketch-Ed-Ballss-non-dom-nightmare.html

    Meanwhile, Ed Miliband was at Warwick University, giving a speech. Labour’s non-doms idea, he declared, “speaks to the big choice at this election”. (Whatever you think of Mr Miliband’s policies, you’ve got to admit: he’s taking English syntax in exciting new directions.) He dismissed questions about the Balls volte-face: “It’s the right thing to do and it’s what Ed Balls said on the radio this morning.”

    Then, at the end, he suddenly said something odd.

    “The Conservative party,” he confided, “is a virtual party. They exist as a sort of Lynton Crosby hologram. They don’t really exist.”

    His audience laughed uncertainly.

    “The hologram’s not working very well at the moment,” he went on, mysteriously. “But they don’t exist in reality.”

    Somehow or other, this was apparently meant as a metaphor for the assertion that Labour has more volunteers delivering leaflets than the Conservatives have.
    In reality, it is Labour which is a hologram of Unite's making....
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    Meanwhile in Scotland

    @BBCNormanS: Boss of @ifs Paul Johnson says spending per head in Scotland is £1,000 higher than rest of UK @BBCr4today

    @Gilesyb: @TheIFS tells @BBCRadio4 that 'full fiscal autonomy' in Scotland would impose 7bn EXTRA austerity north of the border. 3k per household

    There was a choice moment during the first Scottish debate when a prominent CyberNat tweeted that the IFS is a Tory thinktank, then deleted the tweet because she "is a journalist and has to remain impartial"
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548

    To cut against Mike's argument, the seats where Labour have big leads on contacts - Kingswood and Loughbrough - seem to be the safest Tory holds.

    Whisper it - but maybe, just maybe - the Tories have the better targeted approach, zeroing in on those they have identified as possibles and not bothering with those previously identified as strongly for another party or Do Not Vote?

    I noticed the same. Indeed you could make the case that being pestered by some canvassers could put off a vote for the party!

    On Torbay: perhaps the biggest bit of polling denial going on is the very low level of LD support that seems not to be recovering. I find it hard to believe that "safe" seats like Torbay or Colchester will survive.
  • SMukeshSMukesh Posts: 1,759
    Lab's ground game in this London marginal I volunteer in is excellent.
  • logical_songlogical_song Posts: 9,932

    This seat isn’t a marginal so I’m not surprised that we’ve only been canvassed once (by Labour) and had one piece of literature (Labour again). However I drove into Colchester last night along the Old London Road and there was no sign whatsoever that there was an election going on. No posters, no window stickers (that I could see, anyway).

    Doesn't bode well for the LibDems. They are normally the first to show off their orange diamonds of defiance....
    I live between Portsmouth and Southampton. As far as election coverage is concerned I've seen a few orange diamonds in Portsmouth South and Eastleigh, nothing from any other party. I've also seen a group of Labour canvassers in Southampton (pretty sure it's Itchen) but again no posters of any sort. It all seems very low key.
  • IndigoIndigo Posts: 9,966
    surbiton said:

    Oh, and yesterday was a big win for the Conservatives on their message for this election: The choice between Competence and Chaos.

    The two Eds Laurel and Hardy routine was comedy gold.

    Massive win for Edward Samuel Miliband. In touch with the common man and not the friend of tax dodging rich.
    I am actually rather bemused by the level of cheer-leading for Miliband even from the left, there isn't going to be a LAB majority, so the best they can hope for is being propped up in power for a bit by the SNP, who actually have no interest in do what is right for the Labour Party or the UK. How they can believe this can result in anything other than a complete clusterf*ck that will render Labour unelectable for a generation is beyond me.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,947
    edited April 2015

    I can tell you that in hove we've been getting bits of paper from the tories almost every other day. although the pace has slowed lately. Meanwhile hardly anything has been delivered from labour.

    What I can't say is whether this means the tories are desperate, labour have given up, or if labour are getting complacent and not even bothering to target unknowns.... Any ideas?

    Dear puzzledinhove,

    Welcome. Your symptoms are common to many. The weirdest, most confusing election many of us will have known....
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,672

    I can tell you that in hove we've been getting bits of paper from the tories almost every other day. although the pace has slowed lately. Meanwhile hardly anything has been delivered from labour.

    What I can't say is whether this means the tories are desperate, labour have given up, or if labour are getting complacent and not even bothering to target unknowns.... Any ideas?

    It's the complete opposite for us in Warwick & Leamington - one glossy brochure from the Tories, a lot of personalised mail from Labour. Maybe targeting operations on both sides are becoming ever more sophisticated. There is no point in the Tories in our constituency contacting us, so they don't. That said, Labour does seem to be a lot more active generally here.

  • logical_songlogical_song Posts: 9,932

    And if it is foot-soldiers on the ground that DOES matter most, then in Torbay, Ashcroft gave Cons a 9% contact lead over the LibDems.

    The Tories are also making a MUCH greater push at Council level, with carpet-bombing of leaflets in wards that previously only had paper candidates who didn't leaflet at all. This might be a factor in some other seats too.

    If Torbay stays LibDem, it won't be for lack of foot-soldiers marching under the blue flag.

    Do you think that these leaflets were delivered by volunteers or by paid deliverers. If the latter then as Mike says above they will be limited from now.
  • Indigo said:

    surbiton said:

    Oh, and yesterday was a big win for the Conservatives on their message for this election: The choice between Competence and Chaos.

    The two Eds Laurel and Hardy routine was comedy gold.

    Massive win for Edward Samuel Miliband. In touch with the common man and not the friend of tax dodging rich.
    I am actually rather bemused by the level of cheer-leading for Miliband even from the left, there isn't going to be a LAB majority, so the best they can hope for is being propped up in power for a bit by the SNP, who actually have no interest in do what is right for the Labour Party or the UK. How they can believe this can result in anything other than a complete clusterf*ck that will render Labour unelectable for a generation is beyond me.
    The NO result in Scotland was, in hindsight, a bad thing for the vast majority of the British people. A clean departure would have been much less destructive than the neverendum we now face.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,672
    Indigo said:

    surbiton said:

    Indigo said:

    Oops. No doms not paying taxes bad, Labour luvvies not paying taxes, good. Glad we have that settled.

    A leading QC who advised Labour on its non-doms tax crackdown represented controversial film investment schemes that sheltered money for hundreds of wealthy celebrities including Sir Alex Ferguson and Take That.

    The Telegraph has established that Mr Maugham, a Labour suporter, has been in discussions with Labour about the policy for six weeks and played a role in designing it.

    Mr Maugham represented Eclipse 35, a high profile scheme which purported to finance films such as Disney's Enchanted and Underdog.
    Earlier this month the Eclipse 35 scheme was branded a cover story for tax avoidance by the Court of Appeal which had helped investors escape £117million in taxes.
    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/ed-miliband/11522525/Labours-non-dom-adviser-represented-celebrity-tax-dodge-film-schemes.html
    That's why the law needs changing. It appears to me that you believe Labour supporters should abide by future laws.
    If the court of appeal branded it a cover for tax avoidance, that means it was currently avoiding tax under the current regulations, the appeal court doesn't adjudicate on or enforce future laws, as you so quaintly put it. Don'r pretend for one second that you wouldnt be up in arms if exactly the same ruling had been made against bankers, company directors or whatever the leftie hate figure du jour is.



    Tax lawyer represents clients in case about tax shock.

  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,947

    To cut against Mike's argument, the seats where Labour have big leads on contacts - Kingswood and Loughbrough - seem to be the safest Tory holds.

    Whisper it - but maybe, just maybe - the Tories have the better targeted approach, zeroing in on those they have identified as possibles and not bothering with those previously identified as strongly for another party or Do Not Vote?

    I noticed the same. Indeed you could make the case that being pestered by some canvassers could put off a vote for the party!

    On Torbay: perhaps the biggest bit of polling denial going on is the very low level of LD support that seems not to be recovering. I find it hard to believe that "safe" seats like Torbay or Colchester will survive.
    The LibDems certainly need to find a way to galvanize that swathe of 2010 voters who have defected to the Can't Be Arsed Party. No sign of it so far. Clegg's appearence in the 7-way debate wasn't it. Maybe a humdinger of a Manifesto? No, I don't think so either....
  • IndigoIndigo Posts: 9,966
    edited April 2015
    If a group of like minded individuals that supported party X wanted to help their party in the election, had a whip around and raised a big chunk of money, would they be breaking any election laws if they used that money to run surveys, produce literature, put up posters etc if it wasn't in cooperation with, or at the behest of the political party ? If so, what about if they didn't actually name candidates or parties and just promoted or supported particular policies ? Businessmen for Europe, or, Lefties for a Better Funded NHS, or whatever.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,947

    And if it is foot-soldiers on the ground that DOES matter most, then in Torbay, Ashcroft gave Cons a 9% contact lead over the LibDems.

    The Tories are also making a MUCH greater push at Council level, with carpet-bombing of leaflets in wards that previously only had paper candidates who didn't leaflet at all. This might be a factor in some other seats too.

    If Torbay stays LibDem, it won't be for lack of foot-soldiers marching under the blue flag.

    Do you think that these leaflets were delivered by volunteers or by paid deliverers. If the latter then as Mike says above they will be limited from now.
    The Tories in Torbay have hand-delivered. It was the LibDems who had a paid delivery....

  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 54,027
    SNP chap on R4 this morning really struggling in the same way as Sturgeon did about the implications of "full fiscal autonomy".

    His answers were
    "Well huge amounts of Scottish wealth have flown south in the past 30 years". Completely irrelevant to the current fiscal position.

    "Oil prices will rise again". Probably but what are we going to cut in the meantime?

    "We can make different choices and not spend money on nasty things like Trident." Well, putting aside the 10K jobs in Scotland dependent on Trident you can't whilst Scotland remains a part of the UK.

    This is the first time that SLAB have really laid a glove on the SNP. Their weak point has always been the fantasy economics which underlay the referendum and have since developed very much not to Scotland's advantage. But to really challenge them on this SLAB themselves have to at least put a toe in the real world where bills have to be paid. It is not their natural milieu either.
  • Indigo said:

    surbiton said:

    Oh, and yesterday was a big win for the Conservatives on their message for this election: The choice between Competence and Chaos.

    The two Eds Laurel and Hardy routine was comedy gold.

    Massive win for Edward Samuel Miliband. In touch with the common man and not the friend of tax dodging rich.
    I am actually rather bemused by the level of cheer-leading for Miliband even from the left, there isn't going to be a LAB majority, so the best they can hope for is being propped up in power for a bit by the SNP, who actually have no interest in do what is right for the Labour Party or the UK. How they can believe this can result in anything other than a complete clusterf*ck that will render Labour unelectable for a generation is beyond me.
    Party activists always deny that there "good elections to lose". But there are: the two in 1974, for example. This could well be another such - for either Labour or the Tories.

  • This seat isn’t a marginal so I’m not surprised that we’ve only been canvassed once (by Labour) and had one piece of literature (Labour again). However I drove into Colchester last night along the Old London Road and there was no sign whatsoever that there was an election going on. No posters, no window stickers (that I could see, anyway).

    Roughly the usual amount of diamonds (3 or 4) along Braiswick/Bergholt Road though. Only Tory poster I've seen so far was in Stanway.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,672
    Patrick said:

    Indigo said:

    surbiton said:

    Oh, and yesterday was a big win for the Conservatives on their message for this election: The choice between Competence and Chaos.

    The two Eds Laurel and Hardy routine was comedy gold.

    Massive win for Edward Samuel Miliband. In touch with the common man and not the friend of tax dodging rich.
    I am actually rather bemused by the level of cheer-leading for Miliband even from the left, there isn't going to be a LAB majority, so the best they can hope for is being propped up in power for a bit by the SNP, who actually have no interest in do what is right for the Labour Party or the UK. How they can believe this can result in anything other than a complete clusterf*ck that will render Labour unelectable for a generation is beyond me.
    The NO result in Scotland was, in hindsight, a bad thing for the vast majority of the British people. A clean departure would have been much less destructive than the neverendum we now face.

    There would not have been, and will not be, a clean departure. The economies are too interlinked. With oil at $55 a barrel, can you imagine the state of the negotiations now and market reaction to them had there been a Yes vote last September?

  • Ishmael_XIshmael_X Posts: 3,664
    Indigo said:

    surbiton said:

    Oh, and yesterday was a big win for the Conservatives on their message for this election: The choice between Competence and Chaos.

    The two Eds Laurel and Hardy routine was comedy gold.

    Massive win for Edward Samuel Miliband. In touch with the common man and not the friend of tax dodging rich.
    I am actually rather bemused by the level of cheer-leading for Miliband even from the left, there isn't going to be a LAB majority, so the best they can hope for is being propped up in power for a bit by the SNP, who actually have no interest in do what is right for the Labour Party or the UK. How they can believe this can result in anything other than a complete clusterf*ck that will render Labour unelectable for a generation is beyond me.
    If Miliband had said he was going to raise the top rate of tax to 98% he would have got a similar response, that is what you get when you offer to tax the rich more. But it's a core vote strategy in that it doesn't reposition labour one iota. And it comes with a huge, huge reinforcement of the point that ed is too crap to coordinate policy with his own Chancellor - just the thing to persuade the core vote to stay in bed on 7 May. So a guaranteed net vote loser. The excitement of the dim left is particularly incomprehensible.
  • chestnutchestnut Posts: 7,341
    edited April 2015
    Today's YG sample (Vote 2015/Vote 2010)

    Con: 560/576 = 0.9722 @ 36.97% = 35.94%
    Lab: 541/466 = 1.1609 @ 29.70% = 34.48%

    But for the one day Milibounce oddity, that's roughly where the base numbers have been for the last couple of weeks - Tories 1.5 ahead.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    DavidL said:

    SNP chap on R4 this morning really struggling in the same way as Sturgeon did about the implications of "full fiscal autonomy".

    His answers were
    "Well huge amounts of Scottish wealth have flown south in the past 30 years". Completely irrelevant to the current fiscal position.

    "Oil prices will rise again". Probably but what are we going to cut in the meantime?

    The R4 Today producers clearly have a sense of humour - the next topic was 'huge oil reserves discovered under........Gatwick'
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,736
    Fallon message is desperate.

    When does the Tory campaign actually start?

    Bet DH called last few days a narrow Tory win!!
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,708
    Out of interest is it only deliveries where you're allowed to make donations in kind without counting the value of your labour towards the limit or could local members produce extra leaflets by making their own paper out of nettles and ink from their own blood?
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,736
    Oh apparently it was a pyrrhic victory for LAB according to mystic Dan
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,540
    Indigo said:

    surbiton said:

    Oh, and yesterday was a big win for the Conservatives on their message for this election: The choice between Competence and Chaos.

    The two Eds Laurel and Hardy routine was comedy gold.

    Massive win for Edward Samuel Miliband. In touch with the common man and not the friend of tax dodging rich.
    I am actually rather bemused by the level of cheer-leading for Miliband even from the left, there isn't going to be a LAB majority, so the best they can hope for is being propped up in power for a bit by the SNP, who actually have no interest in do what is right for the Labour Party or the UK. How they can believe this can result in anything other than a complete clusterf*ck that will render Labour unelectable for a generation is beyond me.
    They believe the SNP will pull a minority Labour government a long way to the Left. I'm not at all convinced that the SNP's bargaining position would be very strong, on non-Scottish issues, in a hung Parliament.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 54,027

    DavidL said:

    SNP chap on R4 this morning really struggling in the same way as Sturgeon did about the implications of "full fiscal autonomy".

    His answers were
    "Well huge amounts of Scottish wealth have flown south in the past 30 years". Completely irrelevant to the current fiscal position.

    "Oil prices will rise again". Probably but what are we going to cut in the meantime?

    The R4 Today producers clearly have a sense of humour - the next topic was 'huge oil reserves discovered under........Gatwick'
    Yes I heard that. Is it just possible that the SNP will start to look more like a normal party than an irresistible force? My guess for how many SLAB MPs hang on is just starting to edge up (from a very low base).
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,672

    Fallon message is desperate.

    When does the Tory campaign actually start?

    Bet DH called last few days a narrow Tory win!!

    He's talking to Tory UKIPers, no-one else. That is the Tory campaign strategy; just as the Labour strategy is to talk to the anti-Tories. There is no national debate taking place. The two big parties are having two very different conversations with two very distinct sections of the electorate. That's FPTP for you. Whoever wins is going to lack a proper mandate.

  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,540
    Ishmael_X said:

    Indigo said:

    surbiton said:

    Oh, and yesterday was a big win for the Conservatives on their message for this election: The choice between Competence and Chaos.

    The two Eds Laurel and Hardy routine was comedy gold.

    Massive win for Edward Samuel Miliband. In touch with the common man and not the friend of tax dodging rich.
    I am actually rather bemused by the level of cheer-leading for Miliband even from the left, there isn't going to be a LAB majority, so the best they can hope for is being propped up in power for a bit by the SNP, who actually have no interest in do what is right for the Labour Party or the UK. How they can believe this can result in anything other than a complete clusterf*ck that will render Labour unelectable for a generation is beyond me.
    If Miliband had said he was going to raise the top rate of tax to 98% he would have got a similar response, that is what you get when you offer to tax the rich more. But it's a core vote strategy in that it doesn't reposition labour one iota. And it comes with a huge, huge reinforcement of the point that ed is too crap to coordinate policy with his own Chancellor - just the thing to persuade the core vote to stay in bed on 7 May. So a guaranteed net vote loser. The excitement of the dim left is particularly incomprehensible.
    It's not a vote loser. Many people would be delighted to see the top rate of tax raised to 98%. But, I think in to peoples' voting intentions.
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    Patrick said:

    Indigo said:

    surbiton said:

    Oh, and yesterday was a big win for the Conservatives on their message for this election: The choice between Competence and Chaos.

    The two Eds Laurel and Hardy routine was comedy gold.

    Massive win for Edward Samuel Miliband. In touch with the common man and not the friend of tax dodging rich.
    I am actually rather bemused by the level of cheer-leading for Miliband even from the left, there isn't going to be a LAB majority, so the best they can hope for is being propped up in power for a bit by the SNP, who actually have no interest in do what is right for the Labour Party or the UK. How they can believe this can result in anything other than a complete clusterf*ck that will render Labour unelectable for a generation is beyond me.
    The NO result in Scotland was, in hindsight, a bad thing for the vast majority of the British people. A clean departure would have been much less destructive than the neverendum we now face.
    There are only two ways out of the Neverendum: Independence or s collapse in support for the SNP.

    Neither seems on the cards at the moment but the second could occur with either a disastrous collapse of a SNP propped up Labour government, or massive cuts forced by full fiscal autonomy.

  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,415

    Fallon message is desperate.

    When does the Tory campaign actually start?

    Bet DH called last few days a narrow Tory win!!

    He's talking to Tory UKIPers, no-one else. That is the Tory campaign strategy; just as the Labour strategy is to talk to the anti-Tories. There is no national debate taking place. The two big parties are having two very different conversations with two very distinct sections of the electorate. That's FPTP for you. Whoever wins is going to lack a proper mandate.

    Turnout in England is going to be shocking.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,500
    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    SNP chap on R4 this morning really struggling in the same way as Sturgeon did about the implications of "full fiscal autonomy".

    His answers were
    "Well huge amounts of Scottish wealth have flown south in the past 30 years". Completely irrelevant to the current fiscal position.

    "Oil prices will rise again". Probably but what are we going to cut in the meantime?

    The R4 Today producers clearly have a sense of humour - the next topic was 'huge oil reserves discovered under........Gatwick'
    Yes I heard that. Is it just possible that the SNP will start to look more like a normal party than an irresistible force? My guess for how many SLAB MPs hang on is just starting to edge up (from a very low base).
    Keep wishing David , it may come true.
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    Pulpstar said:

    Fallon message is desperate.

    When does the Tory campaign actually start?

    Bet DH called last few days a narrow Tory win!!

    He's talking to Tory UKIPers, no-one else. That is the Tory campaign strategy; just as the Labour strategy is to talk to the anti-Tories. There is no national debate taking place. The two big parties are having two very different conversations with two very distinct sections of the electorate. That's FPTP for you. Whoever wins is going to lack a proper mandate.

    Turnout in England is going to be shocking.
    I think so too. The lack of visible electoral enthusiasm is quite striking.

    But a low turnout favours the Tories, indeed keeping the campaign low key may be a part of the strategy. If there is no real mood for change in the country...
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,500

    Patrick said:

    Indigo said:

    surbiton said:

    Oh, and yesterday was a big win for the Conservatives on their message for this election: The choice between Competence and Chaos.

    The two Eds Laurel and Hardy routine was comedy gold.

    Massive win for Edward Samuel Miliband. In touch with the common man and not the friend of tax dodging rich.
    I am actually rather bemused by the level of cheer-leading for Miliband even from the left, there isn't going to be a LAB majority, so the best they can hope for is being propped up in power for a bit by the SNP, who actually have no interest in do what is right for the Labour Party or the UK. How they can believe this can result in anything other than a complete clusterf*ck that will render Labour unelectable for a generation is beyond me.
    The NO result in Scotland was, in hindsight, a bad thing for the vast majority of the British people. A clean departure would have been much less destructive than the neverendum we now face.
    There are only two ways out of the Neverendum: Independence or s collapse in support for the SNP.

    Neither seems on the cards at the moment but the second could occur with either a disastrous collapse of a SNP propped up Labour government, or massive cuts forced by full fiscal autonomy.

    More fantasy, how about huge surge after FFA means freebies for all as we discover we have been getting ripped off and actually have loads of money after implementing decent policies instead of waving our trident willies.
  • Pulpstar said:

    Fallon message is desperate.

    When does the Tory campaign actually start?

    Bet DH called last few days a narrow Tory win!!

    He's talking to Tory UKIPers, no-one else. That is the Tory campaign strategy; just as the Labour strategy is to talk to the anti-Tories. There is no national debate taking place. The two big parties are having two very different conversations with two very distinct sections of the electorate. That's FPTP for you. Whoever wins is going to lack a proper mandate.

    Turnout in England is going to be shocking.
    And therefore "legitimacy". Say the poll is 67% and the winning Party polls a third of that - governing with the consent of 22% of the electorate isn't going to be much fun. No wonder the Lamb of God doesn't want to serve a full second term.

  • welshowlwelshowl Posts: 4,464

    Fallon message is desperate.

    When does the Tory campaign actually start?

    Bet DH called last few days a narrow Tory win!!

    He's talking to Tory UKIPers, no-one else. That is the Tory campaign strategy; just as the Labour strategy is to talk to the anti-Tories. There is no national debate taking place. The two big parties are having two very different conversations with two very distinct sections of the electorate. That's FPTP for you. Whoever wins is going to lack a proper mandate.

    Absolutely right on both counts.

    Just standing back from the bun fight a tad we are likely to elect a PM whose party gained 34-37% of the vote, and not inconceivably 32/33%. This follows on from 36 and 37% the past two times. Before that it was 42,43,42,42,42,44% (or thereabouts) which takes us back to 1979, and as you point out there's not a great deal of reaching out going on, it's all very core strategy driven by the fragmentation of the electorate.

    I think it would behove whoever wins to bear in mind they have a really weak mandate. Fat chance I guess though.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 54,027
    malcolmg said:

    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    SNP chap on R4 this morning really struggling in the same way as Sturgeon did about the implications of "full fiscal autonomy".

    His answers were
    "Well huge amounts of Scottish wealth have flown south in the past 30 years". Completely irrelevant to the current fiscal position.

    "Oil prices will rise again". Probably but what are we going to cut in the meantime?

    The R4 Today producers clearly have a sense of humour - the next topic was 'huge oil reserves discovered under........Gatwick'
    Yes I heard that. Is it just possible that the SNP will start to look more like a normal party than an irresistible force? My guess for how many SLAB MPs hang on is just starting to edge up (from a very low base).
    Keep wishing David , it may come true.
    Well you never know Malcolm. I have to say in Dundee West we have had several leaflets hand delivered by the SNP in really quite inefficiently large groups of leafleters. Suggests to me that they have more volunteers than they know what to do with at the moment.

    Labour have finally got a candidate in Michael Marra (brother of Jenny Marra and namesake of his locally famous uncle) but I have yet to see a leaflet. If McGovern did not announce he was standing down until they were printed he is going to be even less popular.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,415

    I can tell you that in hove we've been getting bits of paper from the tories almost every other day. although the pace has slowed lately. Meanwhile hardly anything has been delivered from labour.

    What I can't say is whether this means the tories are desperate, labour have given up, or if labour are getting complacent and not even bothering to target unknowns.... Any ideas?

    It's the complete opposite for us in Warwick & Leamington - one glossy brochure from the Tories, a lot of personalised mail from Labour. Maybe targeting operations on both sides are becoming ever more sophisticated. There is no point in the Tories in our constituency contacting us, so they don't. That said, Labour does seem to be a lot more active generally here.

    Bit worrying these contact figures seeing as I'm backing CON in Leamington, Kingswood, Colne, Calder Valley and some others.

  • MonksfieldMonksfield Posts: 2,808

    Fallon message is desperate.

    When does the Tory campaign actually start?

    Bet DH called last few days a narrow Tory win!!

    He's talking to Tory UKIPers, no-one else. That is the Tory campaign strategy; just as the Labour strategy is to talk to the anti-Tories. There is no national debate taking place. The two big parties are having two very different conversations with two very distinct sections of the electorate. That's FPTP for you. Whoever wins is going to lack a proper mandate.

    Yeah Fallon's donned his full blue nasty onesie... Tories generally sounding increasingly desperate.
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    malcolmg said:

    Patrick said:

    Indigo said:

    surbiton said:

    Oh, and yesterday was a big win for the Conservatives on their message for this election: The choice between Competence and Chaos.

    The two Eds Laurel and Hardy routine was comedy gold.

    Massive win for Edward Samuel Miliband. In touch with the common man and not the friend of tax dodging rich.
    I am actually rather bemused by the level of cheer-leading for Miliband even from the left, there isn't going to be a LAB majority, so the best they can hope for is being propped up in power for a bit by the SNP, who actually have no interest in do what is right for the Labour Party or the UK. How they can believe this can result in anything other than a complete clusterf*ck that will render Labour unelectable for a generation is beyond me.
    The NO result in Scotland was, in hindsight, a bad thing for the vast majority of the British people. A clean departure would have been much less destructive than the neverendum we now face.
    There are only two ways out of the Neverendum: Independence or s collapse in support for the SNP.

    Neither seems on the cards at the moment but the second could occur with either a disastrous collapse of a SNP propped up Labour government, or massive cuts forced by full fiscal autonomy.

    More fantasy, how about huge surge after FFA means freebies for all as we discover we have been getting ripped off and actually have loads of money after implementing decent policies instead of waving our trident willies.
    Full fiscal Autonomy would show up who is right: the nats who believe that Scotland subsidises the UK, or the rUK who believe that the Barnett formula subsidises Scotland.

    Either way revunues are likely to be volatile, but if the funds are inadequate or wastefully spent then there would be a lot of recriminations. It is one way that the SNP could collapse. Equally it could make the case for independence.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 19,981
    Izzy

    "If Miliband had said he was going to raise the top rate of tax to 98% he would have got a similar response, that is what you get when you offer to tax the rich more. But it's a core vote strategy in that it doesn't reposition labour one iota"

    Maybe but Cameron has only himself to blame. You cant elevate philistinism as the Tories have done with their worship of business and profit not just at the expense of culture and the arts but also the poor and disadvantaged without a backlash.

    Not since Thatcher have I thought a Tory government deserved to lose as much as this one though I suspect it'll be at some cost to myself.
  • TykejohnnoTykejohnno Posts: 7,362
    Labours defence spokesman said on radio 5 that if evidence is there for 4 subs then they go along with it,the word Evidence is the key,alot of wriggle room there for 3 subs.
  • dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,300
    A Mr Jonathan Rockhard is standing for UKIP in a Bristol Council election.

    http://www.bristolpost.co.uk/Bristol-UKIP-councillor-s-secret-life-porn-star/story-26303054-detail/story.html

    Will he cope with the publicity or will he lose his deposit?
  • chestnutchestnut Posts: 7,341
    Defence, like non doms, is pretty safe territory for the respective parties.

    The election will be won or lost on ordinary people's taxes, jobs, interest rates, housing.

    The rest is piss and wind.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 54,027
    I see the spread index lead for the Tories is down to 13 (using midpoints) from 16 just a few days ago. Is it possible that some of those so convinced that things are going to swing the Tories way are beginning to panic?

    As usual this election campaign is having minimal impact. Polling remains well within the MoE. Labour largest party is looking increasingly nailed on to me.
  • welshowlwelshowl Posts: 4,464

    Labours defence spokesman said on radio 5 that if evidence is there for 4 subs then they go along with it,the word Evidence is the key,alot of wriggle room there for 3 subs.

    So what do the SNP do when a Labour Govt with 275 seats proposes renewing with three boats, have a rebellion of 50 backbenchers who side with 50 odd SNP/Plaid/Green/various others and it's still passed as the remaining 225 Labour MPs are joined by the 275 Tories who figure three's better than none and it's easy enough to add one in 2020?
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    dr_spyn said:

    A Mr Jonathan Rockhard is standing for UKIP in a Bristol Council election.

    http://www.bristolpost.co.uk/Bristol-UKIP-councillor-s-secret-life-porn-star/story-26303054-detail/story.html

    Will he cope with the publicity or will he lose his deposit?

    Going for the socially Conservative vote perhaps!?
  • [Deleted User][Deleted User] Posts: 0
    edited April 2015

    Patrick said:

    Indigo said:

    surbiton said:

    Oh, and yesterday was a big win for the Conservatives on their message for this election: The choice between Competence and Chaos.

    The two Eds Laurel and Hardy routine was comedy gold.

    Massive win for Edward Samuel Miliband. In touch with the common man and not the friend of tax dodging rich.
    I am actually rather bemused by the level of cheer-leading for Miliband even from the left, there isn't going to be a LAB majority, so the best they can hope for is being propped up in power for a bit by the SNP, who actually have no interest in do what is right for the Labour Party or the UK. How they can believe this can result in anything other than a complete clusterf*ck that will render Labour unelectable for a generation is beyond me.
    The NO result in Scotland was, in hindsight, a bad thing for the vast majority of the British people. A clean departure would have been much less destructive than the neverendum we now face.
    There are only two ways out of the Neverendum: Independence or s collapse in support for the SNP.

    Neither seems on the cards at the moment but the second could occur with either a disastrous collapse of a SNP propped up Labour government, or massive cuts forced by full fiscal autonomy.

    I don't know why Westminster seems to fear the SNP so. Independence would be an economic armageddon for Scotland and they know it. A brave but also canny PM would cut spending per capita in Scotland to the national average and dare them to leave. Ultimately Scotland needs the rUK to finance its lifestyle. Sod 'em. Let the SNP do its worst. Give them full tax raising powers but zero borrowing power - if they want to spend more then they can tax more in Scotland. See how popular that makes them.
  • MikeKMikeK Posts: 9,053
    Another labour plant.They are becoming ever more obvious, that it's no longer a surprise.

    The girl who said last night that Jim Murphy has persuaded her to vote Labour?? Well. well..well...look at that pic.twitter.com/3ib9AnlC4N

    — RedToriesOut (@YesAlliance59) April 8, 2015

  • "Welcome. Your symptoms are common to many. The weirdest, most confusing election many of us will have known."

    Thank you :) . I expected to see a lot more labour activity in their target #39:...
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,415
    welshowl said:

    Labours defence spokesman said on radio 5 that if evidence is there for 4 subs then they go along with it,the word Evidence is the key,alot of wriggle room there for 3 subs.

    So what do the SNP do when a Labour Govt with 275 seats proposes renewing with three boats, have a rebellion of 50 backbenchers who side with 50 odd SNP/Plaid/Green/various others and it's still passed as the remaining 225 Labour MPs are joined by the 275 Tories who figure three's better than none and it's easy enough to add one in 2020?
    They get to vote against Trident without bringing down a Labour Gov't.

    Job Done.
  • welshowlwelshowl Posts: 4,464
    edited April 2015
    Patrick said:

    Patrick said:

    Indigo said:

    surbiton said:

    Oh, and yesterday was a big win for the Conservatives on their message for this election: The choice between Competence and Chaos.

    The two Eds Laurel and Hardy routine was comedy gold.

    Massive win for Edward Samuel Miliband. In touch with the common man and not the friend of tax dodging rich.
    I am actually rather bemused by the level of cheer-leading for Miliband even from the left, there isn't going to be a LAB majority, so the best they can hope for is being propped up in power for a bit by the SNP, who actually have no interest in do what is right for the Labour Party or the UK. How they can believe this can result in anything other than a complete clusterf*ck that will render Labour unelectable for a generation is beyond me.
    The NO result in Scotland was, in hindsight, a bad thing for the vast majority of the British people. A clean departure would have been much less destructive than the neverendum we now face.
    There are only two ways out of the Neverendum: Independence or s collapse in support for the SNP.

    Neither seems on the cards at the moment but the second could occur with either a disastrous collapse of a SNP propped up Labour government, or massive cuts forced by full fiscal autonomy.

    I don't know why Westminster seems to fear the SNP so. Independence would be an economic armageddon for Scotland and they know it. A brave but also canny PM would cut spending per capita in Scotland to the national average and dare them to leave. Ultimately Scotland needs the rUK to finance its lifestyle. Sod 'em. Let the SNP do its worst. Give them ful ltax rasining powers but zero borrowing power - if they want to spend more then they can tax more in Scotland. See how popular that makes them.
    Yes I can see that. PC herd in Wales are an utter joke on the economics as their policy consists of sending a begging note to England saying " we want more ". Now there's all kinds of stats that will correctly underscore Wales relative poverty compared to the English average ( but comparable to the N East?) but PC have sod all to say about how Wales generates more business to create wealth in the first place that you can then sustainably spend in the public goodies we all want.
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300
    Patrick said:

    Patrick said:

    Indigo said:

    surbiton said:

    Oh, and yesterday was a big win for the Conservatives on their message for this election: The choice between Competence and Chaos.

    The two Eds Laurel and Hardy routine was comedy gold.

    Massive win for Edward Samuel Miliband. In touch with the common man and not the friend of tax dodging rich.
    I am actually rather bemused by the level of cheer-leading for Miliband even from the left, there isn't going to be a LAB majority, so the best they can hope for is being propped up in power for a bit by the SNP, who actually have no interest in do what is right for the Labour Party or the UK. How they can believe this can result in anything other than a complete clusterf*ck that will render Labour unelectable for a generation is beyond me.
    The NO result in Scotland was, in hindsight, a bad thing for the vast majority of the British people. A clean departure would have been much less destructive than the neverendum we now face.
    There are only two ways out of the Neverendum: Independence or s collapse in support for the SNP.

    Neither seems on the cards at the moment but the second could occur with either a disastrous collapse of a SNP propped up Labour government, or massive cuts forced by full fiscal autonomy.

    I don't know why Westminster seems to fear the SNP so. Independence would be an economic armageddon for Scotland and they know it. A brave but also canny PM would cut spending per capita in Scotland to the national average and dare them to leave. Ultimately Scotland needs the rUK to finance its lifestyle. Sod 'em. Let the SNP do its worst. Give them full tax raising powers but zero borrowing power - if they want to spend more then they can tax more in Scotland. See how popular that makes them.
    I'm not sure rUK opening hostilities against Scotland will win many friends north of the border.
  • welshowlwelshowl Posts: 4,464
    Pulpstar said:

    welshowl said:

    Labours defence spokesman said on radio 5 that if evidence is there for 4 subs then they go along with it,the word Evidence is the key,alot of wriggle room there for 3 subs.

    So what do the SNP do when a Labour Govt with 275 seats proposes renewing with three boats, have a rebellion of 50 backbenchers who side with 50 odd SNP/Plaid/Green/various others and it's still passed as the remaining 225 Labour MPs are joined by the 275 Tories who figure three's better than none and it's easy enough to add one in 2020?
    They get to vote against Trident without bringing down a Labour Gov't.

    Job Done.
    True enough. Then off to burnish halos in ivory tower.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,964
    Good morning, everyone.

    Welcome to the site, Mr. Hove.
  • FinancierFinancier Posts: 3,916
    DavidL said:

    SNP chap on R4 this morning really struggling in the same way as Sturgeon did about the implications of "full fiscal autonomy".

    His answers were
    "Well huge amounts of Scottish wealth have flown south in the past 30 years". Completely irrelevant to the current fiscal position.

    "Oil prices will rise again". Probably but what are we going to cut in the meantime?

    "We can make different choices and not spend money on nasty things like Trident." Well, putting aside the 10K jobs in Scotland dependent on Trident you can't whilst Scotland remains a part of the UK.

    This is the first time that SLAB have really laid a glove on the SNP. Their weak point has always been the fantasy economics which underlay the referendum and have since developed very much not to Scotland's advantage. But to really challenge them on this SLAB themselves have to at least put a toe in the real world where bills have to be paid. It is not their natural milieu either.

    There also seemed to be a difference acknowledged by SNP that they are aiming for fiscal independence but not total independence and that Sturgeon said last night that full independence is not on the current agenda - is this correct?
  • dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,300

    dr_spyn said:

    A Mr Jonathan Rockhard is standing for UKIP in a Bristol Council election.

    http://www.bristolpost.co.uk/Bristol-UKIP-councillor-s-secret-life-porn-star/story-26303054-detail/story.html

    Will he cope with the publicity or will he lose his deposit?

    Going for the socially Conservative vote perhaps!?
    Wonder if the Lab candidate in R******** has viewed any of his films?

  • SmarmeronSmarmeron Posts: 5,099
    Vote Ed, get Putin!

    Yours faithfully,
    Lynton Crosby.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,415
    welshowl said:

    Pulpstar said:

    welshowl said:

    Labours defence spokesman said on radio 5 that if evidence is there for 4 subs then they go along with it,the word Evidence is the key,alot of wriggle room there for 3 subs.

    So what do the SNP do when a Labour Govt with 275 seats proposes renewing with three boats, have a rebellion of 50 backbenchers who side with 50 odd SNP/Plaid/Green/various others and it's still passed as the remaining 225 Labour MPs are joined by the 275 Tories who figure three's better than none and it's easy enough to add one in 2020?
    They get to vote against Trident without bringing down a Labour Gov't.

    Job Done.
    True enough. Then off to burnish halos in ivory tower.
    Trident will go through on Labour and Conservative votes, as much as Dave and Lynton enjoy game playing they will NOT do it with a trident vote. If they abstained on a Trident bill from a Labour Gov't in order to collapse it, well I'd put some money on UKIP to do well at the next GE.
  • TheWatcherTheWatcher Posts: 5,262
    Financier said:

    DavidL said:

    SNP chap on R4 this morning really struggling in the same way as Sturgeon did about the implications of "full fiscal autonomy".

    His answers were
    "Well huge amounts of Scottish wealth have flown south in the past 30 years". Completely irrelevant to the current fiscal position.

    "Oil prices will rise again". Probably but what are we going to cut in the meantime?

    "We can make different choices and not spend money on nasty things like Trident." Well, putting aside the 10K jobs in Scotland dependent on Trident you can't whilst Scotland remains a part of the UK.

    This is the first time that SLAB have really laid a glove on the SNP. Their weak point has always been the fantasy economics which underlay the referendum and have since developed very much not to Scotland's advantage. But to really challenge them on this SLAB themselves have to at least put a toe in the real world where bills have to be paid. It is not their natural milieu either.

    There also seemed to be a difference acknowledged by SNP that they are aiming for fiscal independence but not total independence and that Sturgeon said last night that full independence is not on the current agenda - is this correct?
    Devomax innit? Not brave enough to stand on their own two feet.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,964
    Mr. Financier, that's a bit of a false difference.

    Full fiscal independence is 100% unacceptable, I would suggest, to everywhere else in the UK. It's also de facto independence.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,568
    Artist said:

    The strange thing is that Labour were ahead of the Tories on this even before the start of the short campaign. What did the Conservatives spend all their money on between January and April if it wasn't leaflets, I wonder.

    I wondered about that too. I was expecting to get stuffed in leaflets during Dec-Mar because of the Tory financial advantage, but actually we delivered more literature than the Tories, to the point that a local Tory-leaning blog is full of complaints that the party needs to get its act together. The Tories reportedly have a team of 11 (some paid, some not) and they finally started canvassing every day after Easter, but their canvasses typically have 5 people in them, and their leaked campaign plan shows they don't plan to send out more leaflets before the election (though there will be direct mail). The 11 have been tied down doing deliveries up to Easter (the local party is almost moribund), instead of using Royal Mail - I can't work out why, unless the money was going elsewhere.

    The reason this matters is not really that the voters are studying the literature and weighing it up - some do, but most probably just glance and get a general impression. That helps squeeze voters - it's obvious to anyone here that we're the competition to the Tories, since we've put out 6 leaflets to 0 each from LibDems and Greens. But the main impact is diffeential canvass data. The Tories simply don't know who their voters are, apart from people reached by phone canvassing, so they'll struggle to get them out on the day.
    Indigo said:

    If a group of like minded individuals that supported party X wanted to help their party in the election, had a whip around and raised a big chunk of money, would they be breaking any election laws if they used that money to run surveys, produce literature, put up posters etc if it wasn't in cooperation with, or at the behest of the political party ? If so, what about if they didn't actually name candidates or parties and just promoted or supported particular policies ? Businessmen for Europe, or, Lefties for a Better Funded NHS, or whatever.

    No, the (controversial) Lobbying Act cracks down hard on this, to the point that many NGOs are scared to say anything much on any significant scale. If the impact of your activity helps some candidates more than others, it has potential implications for election expenses. The group could do surveys, I thiink, but not a lot more.
  • welshowlwelshowl Posts: 4,464
    Pulpstar said:

    welshowl said:

    Pulpstar said:

    welshowl said:

    Labours defence spokesman said on radio 5 that if evidence is there for 4 subs then they go along with it,the word Evidence is the key,alot of wriggle room there for 3 subs.

    So what do the SNP do when a Labour Govt with 275 seats proposes renewing with three boats, have a rebellion of 50 backbenchers who side with 50 odd SNP/Plaid/Green/various others and it's still passed as the remaining 225 Labour MPs are joined by the 275 Tories who figure three's better than none and it's easy enough to add one in 2020?
    They get to vote against Trident without bringing down a Labour Gov't.

    Job Done.
    True enough. Then off to burnish halos in ivory tower.
    Trident will go through on Labour and Conservative votes, as much as Dave and Lynton enjoy game playing they will NOT do it with a trident vote. If they abstained on a Trident bill from a Labour Gov't in order to collapse it, well I'd put some money on UKIP to do well at the next GE.
    Agreed
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 43,484
    Pulpstar said:

    welshowl said:

    Pulpstar said:

    welshowl said:

    Labours defence spokesman said on radio 5 that if evidence is there for 4 subs then they go along with it,the word Evidence is the key,alot of wriggle room there for 3 subs.

    So what do the SNP do when a Labour Govt with 275 seats proposes renewing with three boats, have a rebellion of 50 backbenchers who side with 50 odd SNP/Plaid/Green/various others and it's still passed as the remaining 225 Labour MPs are joined by the 275 Tories who figure three's better than none and it's easy enough to add one in 2020?
    They get to vote against Trident without bringing down a Labour Gov't.

    Job Done.
    True enough. Then off to burnish halos in ivory tower.
    Trident will go through on Labour and Conservative votes, as much as Dave and Lynton enjoy game playing they will NOT do it with a trident vote. If they abstained on a Trident bill from a Labour Gov't in order to collapse it, well I'd put some money on UKIP to do well at the next GE.
    That would depend on the bill. It would not surprise me if Labour tried to reduce the system's capabilities - e.g. down to two or three boats. In which case the Conservatives may have to vote against.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 54,027
    Financier said:

    DavidL said:

    SNP chap on R4 this morning really struggling in the same way as Sturgeon did about the implications of "full fiscal autonomy".

    His answers were
    "Well huge amounts of Scottish wealth have flown south in the past 30 years". Completely irrelevant to the current fiscal position.

    "Oil prices will rise again". Probably but what are we going to cut in the meantime?

    "We can make different choices and not spend money on nasty things like Trident." Well, putting aside the 10K jobs in Scotland dependent on Trident you can't whilst Scotland remains a part of the UK.

    This is the first time that SLAB have really laid a glove on the SNP. Their weak point has always been the fantasy economics which underlay the referendum and have since developed very much not to Scotland's advantage. But to really challenge them on this SLAB themselves have to at least put a toe in the real world where bills have to be paid. It is not their natural milieu either.

    There also seemed to be a difference acknowledged by SNP that they are aiming for fiscal independence but not total independence and that Sturgeon said last night that full independence is not on the current agenda - is this correct?
    Not in this election is the line. They are still keeping their options open for 2016 and the Scottish elections. If they get a majority there they will try again.

    At least that was the line on Tuesday. On Wednesday Sturgeon, who got boo'd by the audience for this seemed to back off a little more and indicated there would have to be some unspecified change of circumstances before there was a rerun.
  • FinancierFinancier Posts: 3,916
    The estimated 100 billion barrels of oil discovered in southern England is significant even though geology may restrict recovery to 10 billion. Extraction from the North Sea has been 45 billion over 40 years.

    This would not require fracking - but such a discovery is not unexpected as oil has been extracted from the Wych Farm site in Dorset since 1979 where oil and gas is moved by pipeline.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 19,981
    Rather like the relief many of us felt last time when tha Tories were tempered by the Lib Dems I would welcome Labour being constained by the SNP. There are some wild reaches in the Labour Party-Simon Danczuk to name but one-and the more these fruitcakes are diluted the safer I'll feel.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,568
    A few more signs of polarisation in today's YG - Miliband's rating (as best PM) up again by 3, Cameron's up by 2, and approval for the Tory-LibDem coalition up by 2.

    Unlike Marquee Mark I've run into a few people mentioning gay marriage, but I tell them that I agree with AS on that, and they shrug resignedly. There is also a scattering of people writing in from a Christian group asking if we agree that Britain is a Christian country, whether we disapprove of "British values" being used to attack Christianity (eh?) and what we'll do to stop Christians being persecuted in Britain. A real gulf there between whoever that is and all the mainstream candidates.
  • FinancierFinancier Posts: 3,916
    Roger said:

    Rather like the relief many of us felt last time when tha Tories were tempered by the Lib Dems I would welcome Labour being constained by the SNP. There are some wild reaches in the Labour Party-Simon Danczuk to name but one-and the more these fruitcakes are diluted the safer I'll feel.

    Roger, due you mean 'contained' or 'constrained'?
This discussion has been closed.