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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » At this stage in the marginals having enough volunteer foot
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » At this stage in the marginals having enough volunteer footsoldiers on the ground matters most
We are now in what is legally termed the “short campaign” when the amount of money that can be spent by each candidate is strictly laid down. The maximum is £8,700 + 6p or 9p per elector depending on whether it is borough or county constituency. So in an urban seat with 70,000 on the electoral role the maximum that can be spent between now and polling day is £12,900.
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Whisper it - but maybe, just maybe - the Tories have the better targeted approach, zeroing in on those they have identified as possibles and not bothering with those previously identified as strongly for another party or Do Not Vote?
The Tories are also making a MUCH greater push at Council level, with carpet-bombing of leaflets in wards that previously only had paper candidates who didn't leaflet at all. This might be a factor in some other seats too.
If Torbay stays LibDem, it won't be for lack of foot-soldiers marching under the blue flag.
The two Eds Laurel and Hardy routine was comedy gold.
Labour never did anything wrong yesterday. BBC expunge split at top of Labour. Can anyone? Anyone at all really believe that had this been any one but Labour it would have been buried quite so quick? Like I said it would not make the morning news...... QED
Check for yourself...." Even if it is tedious.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/32227680
According to the BbC Cameron having a disagreement with a schoolgirl merits more news than a major difference at the top of Labour. FFS !!
Tedious but fecking predictable.....
If pushed - LibDem vote in the range 33-36%, Tory vote 36-39%. Could still be a knife-edge, but I'd rather be in Foster's shoes than Sanders.
The trouble is, there is a collective mind-set at the Beeb that no-one who has their full mental faculties could ever seriously choose to vote Tory. Smug, patronising - and wrong.
www.youtube.com/watch?v=fVUm2QH68fs
That's why the law needs changing. It appears to me that you believe Labour supporters should abide by future laws.
If the court of appeal branded it a cover for tax avoidance, that means it was currently avoiding tax under the current regulations, the appeal court doesn't adjudicate on or enforce future laws, as you so quaintly put it. Don'r pretend for one second that you wouldnt be up in arms if exactly the same ruling had been made against bankers, company directors or whatever the leftie hate figure du jour is.
I'm twitchy about the polls like never before.
Labour win.
'I'm not super rich, insists multi-millionaire Blair: Former PM accused of being out of touch after saying his earnings go towards 'infrastructure' around him'
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3031245/I-m-not-super-rich-insists-multi-millionaire-Blair-Former-PM-accused-touch-saying-earning-infrastructure-him.html
What I can't say is whether this means the tories are desperate, labour have given up, or if labour are getting complacent and not even bothering to target unknowns.... Any ideas?
@BBCNormanS: Boss of @ifs Paul Johnson says spending per head in Scotland is £1,000 higher than rest of UK @BBCr4today
@Gilesyb: @TheIFS tells @BBCRadio4 that 'full fiscal autonomy' in Scotland would impose 7bn EXTRA austerity north of the border. 3k per household
There was a choice moment during the first Scottish debate when a prominent CyberNat tweeted that the IFS is a Tory thinktank, then deleted the tweet because she "is a journalist and has to remain impartial"
On Torbay: perhaps the biggest bit of polling denial going on is the very low level of LD support that seems not to be recovering. I find it hard to believe that "safe" seats like Torbay or Colchester will survive.
Welcome. Your symptoms are common to many. The weirdest, most confusing election many of us will have known....
Tax lawyer represents clients in case about tax shock.
His answers were
"Well huge amounts of Scottish wealth have flown south in the past 30 years". Completely irrelevant to the current fiscal position.
"Oil prices will rise again". Probably but what are we going to cut in the meantime?
"We can make different choices and not spend money on nasty things like Trident." Well, putting aside the 10K jobs in Scotland dependent on Trident you can't whilst Scotland remains a part of the UK.
This is the first time that SLAB have really laid a glove on the SNP. Their weak point has always been the fantasy economics which underlay the referendum and have since developed very much not to Scotland's advantage. But to really challenge them on this SLAB themselves have to at least put a toe in the real world where bills have to be paid. It is not their natural milieu either.
Con: 560/576 = 0.9722 @ 36.97% = 35.94%
Lab: 541/466 = 1.1609 @ 29.70% = 34.48%
But for the one day Milibounce oddity, that's roughly where the base numbers have been for the last couple of weeks - Tories 1.5 ahead.
When does the Tory campaign actually start?
Bet DH called last few days a narrow Tory win!!
Neither seems on the cards at the moment but the second could occur with either a disastrous collapse of a SNP propped up Labour government, or massive cuts forced by full fiscal autonomy.
But a low turnout favours the Tories, indeed keeping the campaign low key may be a part of the strategy. If there is no real mood for change in the country...
Just standing back from the bun fight a tad we are likely to elect a PM whose party gained 34-37% of the vote, and not inconceivably 32/33%. This follows on from 36 and 37% the past two times. Before that it was 42,43,42,42,42,44% (or thereabouts) which takes us back to 1979, and as you point out there's not a great deal of reaching out going on, it's all very core strategy driven by the fragmentation of the electorate.
I think it would behove whoever wins to bear in mind they have a really weak mandate. Fat chance I guess though.
Labour have finally got a candidate in Michael Marra (brother of Jenny Marra and namesake of his locally famous uncle) but I have yet to see a leaflet. If McGovern did not announce he was standing down until they were printed he is going to be even less popular.
Either way revunues are likely to be volatile, but if the funds are inadequate or wastefully spent then there would be a lot of recriminations. It is one way that the SNP could collapse. Equally it could make the case for independence.
"If Miliband had said he was going to raise the top rate of tax to 98% he would have got a similar response, that is what you get when you offer to tax the rich more. But it's a core vote strategy in that it doesn't reposition labour one iota"
Maybe but Cameron has only himself to blame. You cant elevate philistinism as the Tories have done with their worship of business and profit not just at the expense of culture and the arts but also the poor and disadvantaged without a backlash.
Not since Thatcher have I thought a Tory government deserved to lose as much as this one though I suspect it'll be at some cost to myself.
http://www.bristolpost.co.uk/Bristol-UKIP-councillor-s-secret-life-porn-star/story-26303054-detail/story.html …
Will he cope with the publicity or will he lose his deposit?
The election will be won or lost on ordinary people's taxes, jobs, interest rates, housing.
The rest is piss and wind.
As usual this election campaign is having minimal impact. Polling remains well within the MoE. Labour largest party is looking increasingly nailed on to me.
"Welcome. Your symptoms are common to many. The weirdest, most confusing election many of us will have known."
Thank you
Job Done.
Welcome to the site, Mr. Hove.
Yours faithfully,
Lynton Crosby.
Full fiscal independence is 100% unacceptable, I would suggest, to everywhere else in the UK. It's also de facto independence.
The reason this matters is not really that the voters are studying the literature and weighing it up - some do, but most probably just glance and get a general impression. That helps squeeze voters - it's obvious to anyone here that we're the competition to the Tories, since we've put out 6 leaflets to 0 each from LibDems and Greens. But the main impact is diffeential canvass data. The Tories simply don't know who their voters are, apart from people reached by phone canvassing, so they'll struggle to get them out on the day. No, the (controversial) Lobbying Act cracks down hard on this, to the point that many NGOs are scared to say anything much on any significant scale. If the impact of your activity helps some candidates more than others, it has potential implications for election expenses. The group could do surveys, I thiink, but not a lot more.
At least that was the line on Tuesday. On Wednesday Sturgeon, who got boo'd by the audience for this seemed to back off a little more and indicated there would have to be some unspecified change of circumstances before there was a rerun.
This would not require fracking - but such a discovery is not unexpected as oil has been extracted from the Wych Farm site in Dorset since 1979 where oil and gas is moved by pipeline.
Unlike Marquee Mark I've run into a few people mentioning gay marriage, but I tell them that I agree with AS on that, and they shrug resignedly. There is also a scattering of people writing in from a Christian group asking if we agree that Britain is a Christian country, whether we disapprove of "British values" being used to attack Christianity (eh?) and what we'll do to stop Christians being persecuted in Britain. A real gulf there between whoever that is and all the mainstream candidates.