If I were Sturgeon , I would push her MP`s in any post election talks to have a red line. That each part of this United Kingdom must have a separate vote on staying in or leaving the EC. Nicola mentioned it last night , sets it up quite nicely, that the power might start to move from westminster London to the regional parliaments.
And I think that's a completely outrageous proposal.
Let's say - made up numbers, obviously - that England voted 90/10 to leave the EU and Scotland voted 51/49 to stay in. It would be wrong that Scotland could veto the overwhelming wishes of the British population as a whole
To be fair many federal nations have similar requirements. In Australia to pass a constitutional amendment you require a majority of votes in the country as a whole, plus a majority of votes winning in a majority of states.
In your (extremely unlikely IMO) scenario I'd think we'd need a further referendum to sort it out. Would England like to leave Scotland and the EU?
Charles will be of the opinion that Westminster , ie England make the decisions, other countries should know their place. You are talking about democracy which is similar to treason in the eyes of the elite in London.
Ed did well and came over clear, cogent, and purposeful and would have shifted some voters his way. Moreover he seemed to capture the spirit and mood of the debate which challenged the Tory hegemony be it growing inequality, austerity bearing down on the weakest, low pay economy and the need to invest on the supply side , captured by the debate at one stage in the contrast of a bedroom tax and taking from the disabled while giving millions back to those over £150,000.
This debate too with 3 articulate women will have enthused female voters and rightly so. anyone who knew anything about the clever, articulate Nicola could guess her image would be empowered by this debate more so as she too captured that narrative which is politics enables opportunities ( she became a lawyer from her working class origins after having her uni. education) for all not just an upper middle class elite.
Can anyone who is in favour of the debates answer this question:
What did we learn last night that we did not already know?
What do you mean by "we"?
I know more about Leanne than I did; and many, many voters know today what they did not know yesterday, that Ed is crap. Rejoice!
Not sure why, but Leanne is growing on me.
Maybe it was because in talking about the debates people made the Borgen comparison as an example of Danish politics, but she made me think of the lead lady from that show.
(5) Clegg looked a bit 2nd division - a few good lines but no clear message.
I disagree. If anything his message was too clear and he made it a little too much without reference to what was actually being discussed. It's just that the message is not that appealing for many people, being essentially an appeal to not go too far in either direction about anything.
Clegg had the dignity of someone bowing out, knowing they had done their best. But he should have been repla
I ageree with the comment about Clegg; I really can’t understand why he didsn’t resign as LD leader six or so months ago.
Agreed. I al
I thought Leanne Wood came across well, obviously not as experienced but sounded like a real person unlike the Westminster lot who you just know had bathed in snake oil before coming on. I counted my fingers after each one of them spoke.
Bennett deserved a bit of a boost I felt. No one went after her and she was able to make arguments to distinguish herself from the rest, I feel she deserves some positive effect for that, even if only temporary.
But she was trying to win a council election, while everyone else was trying to run the country.
Dear Dear, megalomania complex showing. She was punting to her audience.
No. I was not referring to the institutions that either want to govern, but their ambition. There was no ambition, it was all very small scale.
Stephen Fisher's current projection shows the LibDems winning just 20 seats, down from 31 seats at Christmas, reflecting a near wipe-out in Scotland as well as the Yellow Team's continuing failure to make any substantial recocery in the polls with the sands of time now fast running out. Were the very clever Oxford Professor to be proved broadly correct, might now be the time to contemplate taking those 9/2 odds on offer from those nice folk at SkyBet on the LibDems winning between 11 - 20 seats at the GE, which isn't that far removed from Sporting's mid spread price of 24 seats? DYOR.
I would put the LDs in the 23 - 27 range. In some seats they are shoring up their vote where the main opposition have an inadequate ground campaign.
Well Leanne Wood was a major disappointment. We can't rely on Plaid or the Greens taking too many votes from Labour so it will up to the impressive Nicola Sturgeon to clean up in Scotland
I thought Wood did ok, but her strategy was odd for a national debate - she completely focussed on Wales and must have mentioned it by name about 100 times. Shows how odd this 7-way debate thing has become. Why weren't DUP there going 'Northern Ireland this' and 'Northern Ireland the other' all night?
Because Plaid and the SNP compete against Labour, Lib Dems and the Tories. If you exclude them you'd have their competition in but not them which given the SNP surge would be totally ridiculous. To have a level playing field you need them.
The DUP compete against the UUP, SDLP, Sinn Fein and Alliance. They don't compete against any of the parties on stage last night, so there was utterly no reason whatsoever for them to be there. If they were then you'd need to include the other NI parties to make it 11. Have a localised NI debate with the NI parties.
I'm curious on the notion that Miliband won the first debate. It all seems to ride upon one YouGov poll in the Sunday Times that seems to have been a rogue poll (even in the context of other YouGov polls).
Many BBC reporters stated that Ed had won straight after the 1st debate. Including Allegra, Norman and John Pienaar.
Well Leanne Wood was a major disappointment. We can't rely on Plaid or the Greens taking too many votes from Labour so it will up to the impressive Nicola Sturgeon to clean up in Scotland
I thought Wood did ok, but her strategy was odd for a national debate - she completely focussed on Wales and must have mentioned it by name about 100 times. Shows how odd this 7-way debate thing has become. Why weren't DUP there going 'Northern Ireland this' and 'Northern Ireland the other' all night?
Why is her strategy odd? It is very simple - to convince the alienated voters of Wales that Plaid Cymru will stand up for them and the other parties, particularly Labour, will not. From that point of view, mention Wales as often as possible and let the rest of Britain go do things to itself. However lightweight she may look to these other places, it doesn't matter as they can't vote for/against her.
It's also quite an effective line of attack. Wales is one of the poorest areas in Europe (Anglesey is the poorest county in Northern Europe and comparable to most of Greece). As a result, many Welsh people do feel pretty alienated by politics. If she can convince voters there that the reason for their troubles is that over the last 30 or so years Labour MPs have ignored their constituents' needs/wishes in order to shin up Westminster's greasy pole, which is more geared to a national economy dominated by south-east England, it could well be a vote winner.
Stephen Fisher's current projection shows the LibDems winning just 20 seats, down from 31 seats at Christmas, reflecting a near wipe-out in Scotland as well as the Yellow Team's continuing failure to make any substantial recocery in the polls with the sands of time now fast running out. Were the very clever Oxford Professor to be proved broadly correct, might now be the time to contemplate taking those 9/2 odds on offer from those nice folk at SkyBet on the LibDems winning between 11 - 20 seats at the GE, which isn't that far removed from Sporting's mid spread price of 24 seats? DYOR.
anecdote alert on this for my chum Mark Senior. In Kingston the deputy group leader of the LibDems reigned last week after only turning up to 7% of meetings that he had been meant to attend over the last year. There will now be a byelection on the same day as the GE in Grove award which is a nutri marginal and where theLD got in by just 2 votes last year. I am hearing that the local organisation in Kingston has crashed and burned since they lost the council. Maybe just maybe Ed Davey could be in trouble.. I am sure Mark will have some pointer as to why I am being ridicolous..
If I were Sturgeon , I would push her MP`s in any post election talks to have a red line. That each part of this United Kingdom must have a separate vote on staying in or leaving the EC. Nicola mentioned it last night , sets it up quite nicely, that the power might start to move from westminster London to the regional parliaments.
And I think that's a completely outrageous proposal.
Let's say - made up numbers, obviously - that England voted 90/10 to leave the EU and Scotland voted 51/49 to stay in. It would be wrong that Scotland could veto the overwhelming wishes of the British population as a whole
To be fair many federal nations have similar requirements. In Australia to pass a constitutional amendment you require a majority of votes in the country as a whole, plus a majority of votes winning in a majority of states.
Well, we aren't a federated state yet (though I think we're getting there - just a question if independence gets in there before a form can be agreed, and even then probably won't save the union) so it would technically be ok not to have a requirement like that, but it's like a constitutional convention that has yet to be challenged by real events in that regard, it would probably be deemed unacceptable were it to happen, by significant numbers at least, and the argument is easy to make compelling.
(5) Clegg looked a bit 2nd division - a few good lines but no clear message.
I disagree. If anything his message was too clear and he made it a little too much without reference to what was actually being discussed. It's just that the message is not that appealing for many people, being essentially an appeal to not go too far in either direction about anything.
Clegg had the dignity of someone bowing out, knowing they had done their best. But he should have been repla
I ageree with the comment about Clegg; I really can’t understand why he didsn’t resign as LD leader six or so months ago.
Agreed. I al
Bennett deserved a bit of a boost I felt. No one went after her and she was able to make arguments to distinguish herself from the rest, I feel she deserves some positive effect for that, even if only temporary.
But she was trying to win a council election, while everyone else was trying to run the country.
Dear Dear, megalomania complex showing. She was punting to her audience.
No. I was not referring to the institutions that either want to govern, but their ambition. There was no ambition, it was all very small scale.
Yes but given where they are at present , hard for them to think big. Odd given the apparent state of Wales that people have not realised yet that voting Labour has not done much for them and even if PC are bad it is hard for them to do worse for wales. It has taken a very long time for Scotland to waken up to the fact so may happen yet at some future date.
I'm curious on the notion that Miliband won the first debate. It all seems to ride upon one YouGov poll in the Sunday Times that seems to have been a rogue poll (even in the context of other YouGov polls).
20% claimed to have watched the debate, when we know the actual percentage was 5%. Among those who watched it, Labour led by 19%, but this sample had voted 33/15 Con/Lab in 2010.
If I were Sturgeon , I would push her MP`s in any post election talks to have a red line. That each part of this United Kingdom must have a separate vote on staying in or leaving the EC. Nicola mentioned it last night , sets it up quite nicely, that the power might start to move from westminster London to the regional parliaments.
And I think that's a completely outrageous proposal.
Let's say - made up numbers, obviously - that England voted 90/10 to leave the EU and Scotland voted 51/49 to stay in. It would be wrong that Scotland could veto the overwhelming wishes of the British population as a whole
To be fair many federal nations have similar requirements. In Australia to pass a constitutional amendment you require a majority of votes in the country as a whole, plus a majority of votes winning in a majority of states.
In your (extremely unlikely IMO) scenario I'd think we'd need a further referendum to sort it out. Would England like to leave Scotland and the EU?
Charles will be of the opinion that Westminster , ie England make the decisions, other countries should know their place. You are talking about democracy which is similar to treason in the eyes of the elite in London.
If we're one United Kingdom then that isn't unreasonable.
The North West is bigger than Scotland but we don't get a Barnett formula or a veto on reform.
Ed did well and came over clear, cogent, and purposeful and would have shifted some voters his way. Moreover he seemed to capture the spirit and mood of the debate which challenged the Tory hegemony be it growing inequality, austerity bearing down on the weakest, low pay economy and the need to invest on the supply side , captured by the debate at one stage in the contrast of a bedroom tax and taking from the disabled while giving millions back to those over £150,000.
We have a Tory hegemony? That must come as a surprise to a Tory party that hasn't won a majority in over 20 years.
I thought Ed did very well last night, but he certainly didn't capture the mood on things like austerity - on that issue he has no answer to the fact that his and the Tories' plans are broadly similar and all he is saying is he will be nicer about it. The difference between them on that issue at least is not very wide at all.
PBers, many thanks for your commentary on last night's debate - I was settled with some claret, cheese and grapes, when elder son involved me in a 3 hour conference call.
Am surprised at the viewing figures, but should not be as the holidaymakers here after a week of rain and cold winds would have needed some light relief.
Thought all the politicians were somewhat disingenuous as they did not mention the two elephants they had hidden in the kitchens.
1. The state of bankruptcy of the UK and the lack of wealth to 'trickle down'. Some 20-30 years ago at an annual review with one's employer, it was customary to receive a cost of living rise - being separate from a promotion rise. Then the UK made more things for its own consumption and exported the rest to other countries which included those in development.
Today, those same countries have better technology, education and lower costs than us and are exporting to us. In fact we make very little today (including energy). So where will the wealth come from to 'trickle down' and give a pay rise? In reality we all need a massive pay reduction and as @malcolmg says, stop rewarding those not in work so well.
2. Everybody ignored or was too scared to mention the potential upcoming intercontinental conflict/war with militant Islam. Even Farage was not explicit on this point. In reality, the UK could not afford to take part.
Clegg had the dignity of someone bowing out, knowing they had done their best. But he should have been repla
I ageree with the comment about Clegg; I really can’t understand why he didsn’t resign as LD leader six or so months ago.
Agreed. I al
Bennett deserved a bit of a boost I felt. No one went after her and she was able to make arguments to distinguish herself from the rest, I feel she deserves some positive effect for that, even if only temporary.
But she was trying to win a council election, while everyone else was trying to run the country.
Dear Dear, megalomania complex showing. She was punting to her audience.
No. I was not referring to the institutions that either want to govern, but their ambition. There was no ambition, it was all very small scale.
Yes but given where they are at present , hard for them to think big. Odd given the apparent state of Wales that people have not realised yet that voting Labour has not done much for them and even if PC are bad it is hard for them to do worse for wales. It has taken a very long time for Scotland to waken up to the fact so may happen yet at some future date.
Yes, that is something that has always puzzled me about whole regions which are entirely safe for one party, that the support for that party doesn't seem to waver in good or bad times. Like the SNP or not, it can only be a good thing that Labour have been made to fight for their seats in Scotland for a change. Maybe they claw a few more back, maybe they suffer even more, but they have been made to work for the votes at least.
First of all, I want to apologise for my behaviour last night and especially to AlanBrooke - using the F word was extremely childish.
Anyway, back on topic, I thought Ed did pretty well but he didn't land any knock-out blows - and he really had to as the event was probably the last opportunity that he had to do so.
Cameron played it safe and time will tell whether that was the right move. Sturgeon was the star but I guess we expected that. The rest including Cleggie largely irrelevant.
If I were Sturgeon , I would push her MP`s in any post election talks to have a red line. That each part of this United Kingdom must have a separate vote on staying in or leaving the EC. Nicola mentioned it last night , sets it up quite nicely, that the power might start to move from westminster London to the regional parliaments.
And I think that's a completely outrageous proposal.
Let's say - made up numbers, obviously - that England voted 90/10 to leave the EU and Scotland voted 51/49 to stay in. It would be wrong that Scotland could veto the overwhelming wishes of the British population as a whole
To be fair many federal nations have similar requirements. In Australia to pass a constitutional amendment you require a majority of votes in the country as a whole, plus a majority of votes winning in a majority of states.
In your (extremely unlikely IMO) scenario I'd think we'd need a further referendum to sort it out. Would England like to leave Scotland and the EU?
Charles will be of the opinion that Westminster , ie England make the decisions, other countries should know their place. You are talking about democracy which is similar to treason in the eyes of the elite in London.
Very true, anyone who dares to contradict that decisions regarding the constitution of the United Kingdom can only be made in Westminster London, are treacherous in the extreme.
If I were Sturgeon , I would push her MP`s in any post election talks to have a red line. That each part of this United Kingdom must have a separate vote on staying in or leaving the EC. Nicola mentioned it last night , sets it up quite nicely, that the power might start to move from westminster London to the regional parliaments.
And I think that's a completely outrageous proposal.
Let's say - made up numbers, obviously - that England voted 90/10 to leave the EU and Scotland voted 51/49 to stay in. It would be wrong that Scotland could veto the overwhelming wishes of the British population as a whole
To be fair many federal nations have similar requirements. In Australia to pass a constitutional amendment you require a majority of votes in the country as a whole, plus a majority of votes winning in a majority of states.
In your (extremely unlikely IMO) scenario I'd think we'd need a further referendum to sort it out. Would England like to leave Scotland and the EU?
Charles will be of the opinion that Westminster , ie England make the decisions, other countries should know their place. You are talking about democracy which is similar to treason in the eyes of the elite in London.
No, I'm of the view that for a major constitutional change the majority of the people should support it. Politicians - whether Westminster or Holyrood - should not have the right to change the rules of the game without the approval of their masters
Stephen Fisher's current projection shows the LibDems winning just 20 seats, down from 31 seats at Christmas, reflecting a near wipe-out in Scotland as well as the Yellow Team's continuing failure to make any substantial recocery in the polls with the sands of time now fast running out. Were the very clever Oxford Professor to be proved broadly correct, might now be the time to contemplate taking those 9/2 odds on offer from those nice folk at SkyBet on the LibDems winning between 11 - 20 seats at the GE, which isn't that far removed from Sporting's mid spread price of 24 seats? DYOR.
I would put the LDs in the 23 - 27 range. In some seats they are shoring up their vote where the main opposition have an inadequate ground campaign.
Next weeks polls should be a guide to trends.If the 37% in the latest is repeated in other polls for the Tories, and there is no Lib Dem improvement then I think the Tories will at worst be able to win enough seats for a coalition with the Northern Irish to to give an overall majority. and at best with SNP riding high they could get an overall majority.
Presume that in the Challengers' Debate, that the SNP, PC, Green and UKIP having warmed up last night, that EDM will be very much their focus in this next debate. Can he stand the heat in that kitchen?
If I were Sturgeon , I would push her MP`s in any post election talks to have a red line. That each part of this United Kingdom must have a separate vote on staying in or leaving the EC. Nicola mentioned it last night , sets it up quite nicely, that the power might start to move from westminster London to the regional parliaments.
And I think that's a completely outrageous proposal.
Let's say - made up numbers, obviously - that England voted 90/10 to leave the EU and Scotland voted 51/49 to stay in. It would be wrong that Scotland could veto the overwhelming wishes of the British population as a whole
To be fair many federal nations have similar requirements. In Australia to pass a constitutional amendment you require a majority of votes in the country as a whole, plus a majority of votes winning in a majority of states.
In your (extremely unlikely IMO) scenario I'd think we'd need a further referendum to sort it out. Would England like to leave Scotland and the EU?
Charles will be of the opinion that Westminster , ie England make the decisions, other countries should know their place. You are talking about democracy which is similar to treason in the eyes of the elite in London.
If we're one United Kingdom then that isn't unreasonable.
The North West is bigger than Scotland but we don't get a Barnett formula or a veto on reform.
You need to stop voting in tossers and do something about it then. London craps on North of England as well as Scotland, Scotland has finally woken up and is doing something about it.
As someone quite obsessively interested about politics, I watched five mins this morning and realised I'd heard it all before from each candidate
The idea that normal people wouldn't be interested is belied by the fact 7m watched it. We have to accept that it broad terms, PBers are not normal when it comes to politics... Much of what the leaders said would have felt new to most people
From my brief sky plus fast forwarding my main impression was that it looked too hot in the studio.. Cameron, Miliband and Farage were a bit clammy looking, Clegg and the women seemed ok. I'd probably have melted.
Well done @Pong for spotting the tie bet with Coral.. I owe you a pint or two at the next PB drink
If I were Sturgeon , I would push her MP`s in any post election talks to have a red line. That each part of this United Kingdom must have a separate vote on staying in or leaving the EC. Nicola mentioned it last night , sets it up quite nicely, that the power might start to move from westminster London to the regional parliaments.
And I think that's a completely outrageous proposal.
Let's say - made up numbers, obviously - that England voted 90/10 to leave the EU and Scotland voted 51/49 to stay in. It would be wrong that Scotland could veto the overwhelming wishes of the British population as a whole
To be fair many federal nations have similar requirements. In Australia to pass a constitutional amendment you require a majority of votes in the country as a whole, plus a majority of votes winning in a majority of states.
In your (extremely unlikely IMO) scenario I'd think we'd need a further referendum to sort it out. Would England like to leave Scotland and the EU?
Charles will be of the opinion that Westminster , ie England make the decisions, other countries should know their place. You are talking about democracy which is similar to treason in the eyes of the elite in London.
No, I'm of the view that for a major constitutional change the majority of the people should support it. Politicians - whether Westminster or Holyrood - should not have the right to change the rules of the game without the approval of their masters
The current status in the UK means that what England votes is forced on every part of the UK , that cannot be sustained whilst London hogs all the money , power etc.
If I were Sturgeon , I would push her MP`s in any post election talks to have a red line. That each part of this United Kingdom must have a separate vote on staying in or leaving the EC. Nicola mentioned it last night , sets it up quite nicely, that the power might start to move from westminster London to the regional parliaments.
And I think that's a completely outrageous proposal.
Let's say - made up numbers, obviously - that England voted 90/10 to leave the EU and Scotland voted 51/49 to stay in. It would be wrong that Scotland could veto the overwhelming wishes of the British population as a whole
To be fair many federal nations have similar requirements. In Australia to pass a constitutional amendment you require a majority of votes in the country as a whole, plus a majority of votes winning in a majority of states.
In your (extremely unlikely IMO) scenario I'd think we'd need a further referendum to sort it out. Would England like to leave Scotland and the EU?
Charles will be of the opinion that Westminster , ie England make the decisions, other countries should know their place. You are talking about democracy which is similar to treason in the eyes of the elite in London.
If we're one United Kingdom then that isn't unreasonable.
The North West is bigger than Scotland but we don't get a Barnett formula or a veto on reform.
You need to stop voting in tossers and do something about it then. London craps on North of England as well as Scotland, Scotland has finally woken up and is doing something about it.
Mg you are going of piste, you must not of heard of the Northern Powerhouse and long term economic plan, that changes between the autumn statement and budget day each year.
Clegg had the dignity of someone bowing out, knowing they had done their best. But he should have been repla
I ageree with the comment about Clegg; I really can’t understand why he didsn’t resign as LD leader six or so months ago.
Agreed. I al
Bennett deserved a bit of a boost I felt. No one went after her and she was able to make arguments to distinguish herself from the rest, I feel she deserves some positive effect for that, even if only temporary.
But she was trying to win a council election, while everyone else was trying to run the country.
Dear Dear, megalomania complex showing. She was punting to her audience.
No. I was not referring to the institutions that either want to govern, but their ambition. There was no ambition, it was all very small scale.
Yes but given where they are at present , hard for them to think big. Odd given the apparent state of Wales that people have not realised yet that voting Labour has not done much for them and even if PC are bad it is hard for them to do worse for wales. It has taken a very long time for Scotland to waken up to the fact so may happen yet at some future date.
Yes, that is something that has always puzzled me about whole regions which are entirely safe for one party, that the support for that party doesn't seem to waver in good or bad times. Like the SNP or not, it can only be a good thing that Labour have been made to fight for their seats in Scotland for a change. Maybe they claw a few more back, maybe they suffer even more, but they have been made to work for the votes at least.
Hopefully it will shake up the status quo in England, lots of regions of England are treated like crap as well. London and the greedy elite running it and the country have a lot to answer for.
the debates will be forgotten by Monday and most people didn't watch them anyway.
There are still people who believe that the only reason, or the most significant reason, that Cameron lost in 2010 is because of the impact of the debates, and that played a role in the negotiations for this one. I happen to disagree with that view, and do not believe the impact o these will be overstated, but in addition to the 'most people didn't watch them' argument being pointless - more people don't watch most political happenings than last night, but they can still have an impact, even if not as significant as political obsessives believe it should or could - I don't think the debates will be forgotten by Monday. It will get some media play over the next few days, more people than usually tune into politics will have seen at least bits of it, and that will have some sort of impact on the narrative and those people.
That impact should not be overstated, and may not prove decisive to the narrative or the views of the party leaders, but that doesn't make them irrelevant.
I'm of the view that the debates (the first one) did cost the Conservatives a majority. Pre-debate, they were nudging 40% in polls, and never quite recovered to that level.
But, as luck would have it, things have turned out well for them. The Lib Dems in opposition would still be polling 20%+, and challenging the Conservatives in dozens of seats. Now, they're a spent force.
I'm not sure. The Conservatives lost it in January 2010. By March, and before the debates, they were regularly polling just 37-38%. I think, had the debates not happened, they'd have maybe scooped an extra 10-15 seats, but would still have been short.
In the end, the debates damaged Labour and Brown almost as much as the Tories. But, I agree with you: it's allowed the Tories to share the blame and absorb a lot of old Lib Dem votes.
I wouldn't put too much emphasis on this weekends polls because of the Easter holidays. Those with money will have gone away and won't be polled therefore they could be skewed towards labour. If Tories still ahead on this weekends polls then that could tell you Eds in big trouble..
PBers, many thanks for your commentary on last night's debate - I was settled with some claret, cheese and grapes, when elder son involved me in a 3 hour conference call.
Am surprised at the viewing figures, but should not be as the holidaymakers here after a week of rain and cold winds would have needed some light relief.
Thought all the politicians were somewhat disingenuous as they did not mention the two elephants they had hidden in the kitchens.
1. The state of bankruptcy of the UK and the lack of wealth to 'trickle down'. Some 20-30 years ago at an annual review with one's employer, it was customary to receive a cost of living rise - being separate from a promotion rise. Then the UK made more things for its own consumption and exported the rest to other countries which included those in development.
Today, those same countries have better technology, education and lower costs than us and are exporting to us. In fact we make very little today (including energy). So where will the wealth come from to 'trickle down' and give a pay rise? In reality we all need a massive pay reduction and as @malcolmg says, stop rewarding those not in work so well.
2. Everybody ignored or was too scared to mention the potential upcoming intercontinental conflict/war with militant Islam. Even Farage was not explicit on this point. In reality, the UK could not afford to take part.
Financier , for once we do agree, this country needs a real transformation and the stale Tory/labour club are not the ones to do it. They will just continue to take turns and enrich themselves.
Presume that in the Challengers' Debate, that the SNP, PC, Green and UKIP having warmed up last night, that EDM will be very much their focus in this next debate. Can he stand the heat in that kitchen?
Yup. During the NHS questioning they all piled on Ed rather than Dave, blaming Labour for privatisation and hypocrisy. Without Dave and Nick there the next debate will likely be Ed defending the New Labour record or trashing it with the other four. I have no idea why Ed is subjecting himself to this debate. If Nick was there then it makes Dave look chicken, but without him it is billed as a debate of the opposition parties which is an entirely legitimate idea.
If I were Sturgeon , I would push her MP`s in any post election talks to have a red line. That each part of this United Kingdom must have a separate vote on staying in or leaving the EC. Nicola mentioned it last night , sets it up quite nicely, that the power might start to move from westminster London to the regional parliaments.
And I think that's a completely outrageous proposal.
Let's say - made up numbers, obviously - that England voted 90/10 to leave the EU and Scotland voted 51/49 to stay in. It would be wrong that Scotland could veto the overwhelming wishes of the British population as a whole
To be fair many federal nations have similar requirements. In Australia to pass a constitutional amendment you require a majority of votes in the country as a whole, plus a majority of votes winning in a majority of states.
In your (extremely unlikely IMO) scenario I'd think we'd need a further referendum to sort it out. Would England like to leave Scotland and the EU?
Charles will be of the opinion that Westminster , ie England make the decisions, other countries should know their place. You are talking about democracy which is similar to treason in the eyes of the elite in London.
If we're one United Kingdom then that isn't unreasonable.
The North West is bigger than Scotland but we don't get a Barnett formula or a veto on reform.
You need to stop voting in tossers and do something about it then. London craps on North of England as well as Scotland, Scotland has finally woken up and is doing something about it.
Mg you are going of piste, you must not of heard of the Northern Powerhouse and long term economic plan, that changes between the autumn statement and budget day each year.
Hopefully they will make changes , but is it enough or just crumbs to placate the natives.
PBers, many thanks for your commentary on last night's debate - I was settled with some claret, cheese and grapes, when elder son involved me in a 3 hour conference call.
Am surprised at the viewing figures, but should not be as the holidaymakers here after a week of rain and cold winds would have needed some light relief.
Thought all the politicians were somewhat disingenuous as they did not mention the two elephants they had hidden in the kitchens.
1. The state of bankruptcy of the UK and the lack of wealth to 'trickle down'. Some 20-30 years ago at an annual review with one's employer, it was customary to receive a cost of living rise - being separate from a promotion rise. Then the UK made more things for its own consumption and exported the rest to other countries which included those in development.
Today, those same countries have better technology, education and lower costs than us and are exporting to us. In fact we make very little today (including energy). So where will the wealth come from to 'trickle down' and give a pay rise? In reality we all need a massive pay reduction and as @malcolmg says, stop rewarding those not in work so well.
2. Everybody ignored or was too scared to mention the potential upcoming intercontinental conflict/war with militant Islam. Even Farage was not explicit on this point. In reality, the UK could not afford to take part.
I think I read we actually manufacturer more than ever, but it's a smaller part of the economy. Minis and range rovers and airbus wings and engines add value. Just how much did we consume in the eara of Dickens, how long did we Iive, how many doctors nurses midwives did we have. What was infant mortality. How many people could afford 4wheeled transport. Are you sure you are a financier? Does any body call a clear red bordeaux a claret any more
The UK is not bankrupt. It is paying its way and will continue so with a tory govt.
If I were Sturgeon , I would push her MP`s in any post election talks to have a red line. That each part of this United Kingdom must have a separate vote on staying in or leaving the EC. Nicola mentioned it last night , sets it up quite nicely, that the power might start to move from westminster London to the regional parliaments.
And I think that's a completely outrageous proposal.
Let's say - made up numbers, obviously - that England voted 90/10 to leave the EU and Scotland voted 51/49 to stay in. It would be wrong that Scotland could veto the overwhelming wishes of the British population as a whole
To be fair many federal nations have similar requirements. In Australia to pass a constitutional amendment you require a majority of votes in the country as a whole, plus a majority of votes winning in a majority of states.
In your (extremely unlikely IMO) scenario I'd think we'd need a further referendum to sort it out. Would England like to leave Scotland and the EU?
Charles will be of the opinion that Westminster , ie England make the decisions, other countries should know their place. You are talking about democracy which is similar to treason in the eyes of the elite in London.
If we're one United Kingdom then that isn't unreasonable.
The North West is bigger than Scotland but we don't get a Barnett formula or a veto on reform.
You need to stop voting in tossers and do something about it then. London craps on North of England as well as Scotland, Scotland has finally woken up and is doing something about it.
As a Thatcher voting Tartan Tory you must be dismayed by the leftward lurch of the SNP under Sturgeon. There are already signs that she is damaging Scottish business.
PBers, many thanks for your commentary on last night's debate - I was settled with some claret, cheese and grapes, when elder son involved me in a 3 hour conference call.
Am surprised at the viewing figures, but should not be as the holidaymakers here after a week of rain and cold winds would have needed some light relief.
Thought all the politicians were somewhat disingenuous as they did not mention the two elephants they had hidden in the kitchens.
1. The state of bankruptcy of the UK and the lack of wealth to 'trickle down'. Some 20-30 years ago at an annual review with one's employer, it was customary to receive a cost of living rise - being separate from a promotion rise. Then the UK made more things for its own consumption and exported the rest to other countries which included those in development.
Today, those same countries have better technology, education and lower costs than us and are exporting to us. In fact we make very little today (including energy). So where will the wealth come from to 'trickle down' and give a pay rise? In reality we all need a massive pay reduction and as @malcolmg says, stop rewarding those not in work so well.
2. Everybody ignored or was too scared to mention the potential upcoming intercontinental conflict/war with militant Islam. Even Farage was not explicit on this point. In reality, the UK could not afford to take part.
Financier , for once we do agree, this country needs a real transformation and the stale Tory/labour club are not the ones to do it. They will just continue to take turns and enrich themselves.
Malcolm: it can as much a surprise to me as to you: a meeting of great minds or just unveiling? However, it there a party/party leader who is brave enough to do it?
If I were Sturgeon , I would push her MP`s in any post election talks to have a red line. That each part of this United Kingdom must have a separate vote on staying in or leaving the EC. Nicola mentioned it last night , sets it up quite nicely, that the power might start to move from westminster London to the regional parliaments.
And I think that's a completely outrageous proposal.
Let's say - made up numbers, obviously - that England voted 90/10 to leave the EU and Scotland voted 51/49 to stay in. It would be wrong that Scotland could veto the overwhelming wishes of the British population as a whole
I agree it's appalling, that kind of result would lead to a constitutional crisis that would inevitably lead to Scotland leaving/being pushed out of the UK. A nightmare scenario for Sturgeon and the SNP I'm sure you would agree.
Hopefully Sturgeon’s robust performance will finally convince the many SNP haters on this site and in the MSM that she is a force to be reckoned with. When it comes to the Sturgeon/Murphy debate she will easily win based on last night’s performance, Murphy will be reduced to bluster and shouting, which will not play well with female voters in particular.
I think the SNP's position is only going to strengthen as we approach May and they could end up with over 50% of the vote. Consider the following factors:
- SLAB are already in meltdown, with recriminations about their impending defeat already setting in. I think they’ll struggle to get 25% of the vote. SLAB are yet to convince anyone that they’re not still a Branch Office of London
- In terms of tactical voting, other than a few diehard Unionist Scottish Tories who might vote Labour, the vast majority of Scottish Tories and SLAB supporters, hate each other more than they hate the SNP. So the SNP are likely to be net beneficiaries of any tactical voting.
- Ed Milliband is so unpopular in Scotland that the more we see of him on the TV screens yet more SLAB support will melt away to the SNP, Greens, UKIP and even the LibDems.
- There are no signs of the LibDems staging any recovery, if Kennedy is at risk, no LibDem seat in Scotland is safe.
- The SNP membership surge continues, giving them phenomenal ground resources to deploy in any seat where the mainstream parties have any remaining hopes.
Paul Goodman ConHome (Clegg) "spent much of the evening urinating on the Prime Minister’s leg"
"Nick Clegg. The proverbial visitor from Mars would have gasped to be told that the Liberal Democrat leader has been deputy to the Conservative one for five years. Clegg’s plan was to counter the charge that he’s Cameron’s poodle. He thus spent much of the evening urinating on the Prime Minister’s leg, while trying to avoid also utilising the Miliband lampost. Clegg was a ghostly echo of the young turk who swept all before him in 2010 – direct, quick, potentially engaging. But he got badly bossed by Nigel Farage during the immigration debate."
PBers, many thanks for your commentary on last night's debate - I was settled with some claret, cheese and grapes, when elder son involved me in a 3 hour conference call.
Am surprised at the viewing figures, but should not be as the holidaymakers here after a week of rain and cold winds would have needed some light relief.
Thought all the politicians were somewhat disingenuous as they did not mention the two elephants they had hidden in the kitchens.
1. The state of bankruptcy of the UK and the lack of wealth to 'trickle down'. Some 20-30 years ago at an annual review with one's employer, it was customary to receive a cost of living rise - being separate from a promotion rise. Then the UK made more things for its own consumption and exported the rest to other countries which included those in development.
Today, those same countries have better technology, education and lower costs than us and are exporting to us. In fact we make very little today (including energy). So where will the wealth come from to 'trickle down' and give a pay rise? In reality we all need a massive pay reduction and as @malcolmg says, stop rewarding those not in work so well.
2. Everybody ignored or was too scared to mention the potential upcoming intercontinental conflict/war with militant Islam. Even Farage was not explicit on this point. In reality, the UK could not afford to take part.
I think I read we actually manufacturer more than ever, but it's a smaller part of the economy. Minis and range rovers and airbus wings and engines add value. Just how much did we consume in the eara of Dickens, how long did we Iive, how many doctors nurses midwives did we have. What was infant mortality. How many people could afford 4wheeled transport. Are you sure you are a financier? Does any body call a clear red bordeaux a claret any more
The UK is not bankrupt. It is paying its way and will continue so with a tory govt.
So why is our borrowing increasing and why Is the balance of payments an embarrassment if we are paying our way?
If I were Sturgeon , I would push her MP`s in any post election talks to have a red line. That each part of this United Kingdom must have a separate vote on staying in or leaving the EC. Nicola mentioned it last night , sets it up quite nicely, that the power might start to move from westminster London to the regional parliaments.
And I think that's a completely outrageous proposal.
Let's say - made up numbers, obviously - that England voted 90/10 to leave the EU and Scotland voted 51/49 to stay in. It would be wrong that Scotland could veto the overwhelming wishes of the British population as a whole
To be fair many federal nations have similar requirements. In Australia to pass a constitutional amendment you require a majority of votes in the country as a whole, plus a majority of votes winning in a majority of states.
In your (extremely unlikely IMO) scenario I'd think we'd need a further referendum to sort it out. Would England like to leave Scotland and the EU?
Charles will be of the opinion that Westminster , ie England make the decisions, other countries should know their place. You are talking about democracy which is similar to treason in the eyes of the elite in London.
If we're one United Kingdom then that isn't unreasonable.
The North West is bigger than Scotland but we don't get a Barnett formula or a veto on reform.
You need to stop voting in tossers and do something about it then. London craps on North of England as well as Scotland, Scotland has finally woken up and is doing something about it.
Actually I have no problem with my MP ... of all MPs its your (nation's) tossers that have been the biggest problem. The SNP getting rid of SLAB MPs like Gordon Brown etc is doing the whole nation a service. So thank you.
I've just gone in balls-deep on Tories most seats.
I can't see Labour making the 35-37 net gains direct from the Conservatives they'd need to achieve that in E&W after last night, and the way the polls and forecasts are now moving. DYOR.
If I were Sturgeon , I would push her MP`s in any post election talks to have a red line. That each part of this United Kingdom must have a separate vote on staying in or leaving the EC. Nicola mentioned it last night , sets it up quite nicely, that the power might start to move from westminster London to the regional parliaments.
And I think that's a completely outrageous proposal.
Let's say - made up numbers, obviously - that England voted 90/10 to leave the EU and Scotland voted 51/49 to stay in. It would be wrong that Scotland could veto the overwhelming wishes of the British population as a whole
To be fair many federal nations have similar requirements. In Australia to pass a constitutional amendment you require a majority of votes in the country as a whole, plus a majority of votes winning in a majority of states.
In your (extremely unlikely IMO) scenario I'd think we'd need a further referendum to sort it out. Would England like to leave Scotland and the EU?
Charles will be of the opinion that Westminster , ie England make the decisions, other countries should know their place. You are talking about democracy which is similar to treason in the eyes of the elite in London.
If we're one United Kingdom then that isn't unreasonable.
The North West is bigger than Scotland but we don't get a Barnett formula or a veto on reform.
You need to stop voting in tossers and do something about it then. London craps on North of England as well as Scotland, Scotland has finally woken up and is doing something about it.
As a Thatcher voting Tartan Tory you must be dismayed by the leftward lurch of the SNP under Sturgeon. There are already signs that she is damaging Scottish business.
Correct, she thinks it's a zero sum game. She thinks like Farage she can cut off the rest of the world. But she also thinks the saviour back stop is England.
Hopefully Sturgeon’s robust performance will finally convince the many SNP haters on this site and in the MSM that she is a force to be reckoned with.
I don't think that was in doubt from the SNP haters. On the contrary, that is one reason why the SNP are hated, because they are a force to be reckoned with.
From my brief sky plus fast forwarding my main impression was that it looked too hot in the studio.. Cameron, Miliband and Farage were a bit clammy looking, Clegg and the women seemed ok. I'd probably have melted.
I've often wondered why that so often seems to be a problem with such things. I know with lights and so on it will be pretty intense, but can they not offset that with some heavy duty air conditioning, a little cooler than would normally be the case?
I did not watch the debate, but given the polling it does not seem as if it is going to be a game-changer. Much more significant, it seems to me, is the 37% the Tories got in the YG last night. A score like that on GE day itself sees them moving towards the possibility of a small overall majority. A couple more repeats - or replications in other polls - and we could see a full-scale Labour meltdown.
I predict a bit of polling chaos over the next week wih the Easter weekend and debate hangover. Will it have changed much? I'm not sure. The Tories do seem to be having an uptick in the polls of late though. 37% with YouGov was a stunner. I suspect Cameron probably needs to be 4 points ahead of Miliband in the headline numbers to remain as PM though.
I think I read we actually manufacturer more than ever, but it's a smaller part of the economy. Minis and range rovers and airbus wings and engines add value. Just how much did we consume in the eara of Dickens, how long did we Iive, how many doctors nurses midwives did we have. What was infant mortality. How many people could afford 4wheeled transport. Are you sure you are a financier? Does any body call a clear red bordeaux a claret any more
The UK is not bankrupt. It is paying its way and will continue so with a tory govt.
I am kinda in the middle on this one. I agree the UK is not bankrupt. This is demonstrated by the fact the country can borrow money from the markets for next to nothing. OTOH it is true that our national debt is on the high side of safe given where we are in the cycle.
We are running an unacceptably high trade deficit (which predictably never even got a mention last night) which is impoverishing our country as our productive assets (like range rover) fall into foreign ownership and generate profits for others.
But we are still a high income country which has control of its own destiny provided we make the right choices. It is not impossible, as seemed to be hinted at last night, that our children will be better off than us. It is just we have less leeway for more mistakes than we used to have.
I've often wondered why that so often seems to be a problem with such things. I know with lights and so on it will be pretty intense, but can they not offset that with some heavy duty air conditioning, a little cooler than would normally be the case?
I've only been on TV once but I think the problem here is that the space in a studio is so large, which means they need very powerful lights, and which makes it difficult to cool the space under the light.
I listened to a Kipper spokesman (O'Flynn?) earlier on R5L discussing the HIV medicine bill for immigrants. He mentioned an International Health Service instead of a National Health Service.
Now I'm in favour of the Tories' commitment to give 0.7% of GDP to International Aid - one thing Cameron has dome well on. Surely immigrants coming to use our HIV medication counts as International aid? Why not transfer the cost to this budget?
But it was instructive to see the reaction on here last night to Farage even mentioning HIV medication and immigrant?
"Please, miss, Nigel said a nasty word." Teacher (metropolitan liberal elite) comes over. "Nigel, don't you dare say that." "But miss, why?" "Because I say so."
There are two problems with this ... (1) The electorate don't like being treated like naughty children, (2) They begin to suspect teacher has no coherent answer - and they are right.
So please feel free to take up my suggestion in the second paragraph
If I were Sturgeon , I would push her MP`s in any post election talks to have a red line. That each part of this United Kingdom must have a separate vote on staying in or leaving the EC. Nicola mentioned it last night , sets it up quite nicely, that the power might start to move from westminster London to the regional parliaments.
And I think that's a completely outrageous proposal.
Let's say - made up numbers, obviously - that England voted 90/10 to leave the EU and Scotland voted 51/49 to stay in. It would be wrong that Scotland could veto the overwhelming wishes of the British population as a whole
To be fair many federal nations have similar requirements. In Australia to pass a constitutional amendment you require a majority of votes in the country as a whole, plus a majority of votes winning in a majority of states.
In your (extremely unlikely IMO) scenario I'd think we'd need a further referendum to sort it out. Would England like to leave Scotland and the EU?
Charles will be of the opinion that Westminster , ie England make the decisions, other countries should know their place. You are talking about democracy which is similar to treason in the eyes of the elite in London.
No, I'm of the view that for a major constitutional change the majority of the people should support it. Politicians - whether Westminster or Holyrood - should not have the right to change the rules of the game without the approval of their masters
The current status in the UK means that what England votes is forced on every part of the UK , that cannot be sustained whilst London hogs all the money , power etc.
England is 90% of the population.
Personally I'd be in favour of a reformed House of Lords, where S/W/NI are over-represented relative to population (in the same way that the small states are in the US senate) to help protect your interests. But why Scotland should have more importance than, say, Yorkshire, escapes me
Looks about right. With Scotland lost to Labour it is very hard to see how it can move beyond the seat total it has now. And even standing still may be tricky. I think the best that those of us on the left can now hope for is a hung Parliament in which the Tories cannot buy off a few MPs in order to get legislation through, alongside EdM's very hasty departure from the Labour leadership.
Not that up on China, but my understanding is that, after the Communist Party tried to eat its own head after Mao, there was an unwritten agreement that the top dogs wouldn't bite one another. That consensus has ended, with Xi Jinping taking down several major chaps (the charged fellow in the story was the head of security).
Trying to stand back from our personal impressions and going by the polls: (1) Sturgeon either won or got a score draw, both of them very creditable in this format. That will both help the SNP in Scotland and reduce any fear of the SNP elsewhere. (2) Miliband (pace Roger!) got a score draw, which again outperformed expectations. That will help with the people who want a change of government but weren't sure he was tough enough. (3) Farage spoke very clearly (simply good voice projection) and I thought his key point that if we stay in the EU then free movement is inevitable was well made, helped by the fact that it's correct. I think he was unwise to venture into HIV treatment but his core audience maybe doesn't mind. I expect a small UKIP bounce and he's certainly done enough to prevent a further slide in their ratings for now. (4) Cameron seemed to be going through the motions - it looked exactly as though he felt as PM he shouldn't need to be there. Not much effect either way. (5) Clegg looked a bit 2nd division - a few good lines but no clear message. Wood was the same only more so. Bennett was OK but low-key. Major effects? Media spin may affect it for a day or two, but nothing decisive. On balance I'd guess a UKIP plus, slowing the concentration on the Con/Lab battle.
You criticise Clegg for not having a clear message. Did Miliband have a clear message? If so, what was it?
Daily Mail Headlines @dmheadlines 44s44 seconds ago Rochdale Labour councillor's home raided by anti-terror police after his 21-year-old son was arrested on... - http://tinyurl.com/na2t2tn
If I were Sturgeon , I would push her MP`s in any post election talks to have a red line. That each part of this United Kingdom must have a separate vote on staying in or leaving the EC. Nicola mentioned it last night , sets it up quite nicely, that the power might start to move from westminster London to the regional parliaments.
And I think that's a completely outrageous proposal.
Let's say - made up numbers, obviously - that England voted 90/10 to leave the EU and Scotland voted 51/49 to stay in. It would be wrong that Scotland could veto the overwhelming wishes of the British population as a whole
I agree it's appalling, that kind of result would lead to a constitutional crisis that would inevitably lead to Scotland leaving/being pushed out of the UK. A nightmare scenario for Sturgeon and the SNP I'm sure you would agree.
No, it wouldn't.
But it might be one of the few reasonable grounds for a re-run of the Scottish referendum
When Clegg started by trying to throw Cameron under a bus, I thought the game was up for Cameron - six people ganging up on him he was going to be dead in the water. It didn't pan out like that at all. It just reminded me that the left (including Farage with is WWC dog whistle) are hopelessly divided in this country and a divided left leads to tory governments.
Stephen Fisher's current projection shows the LibDems winning just 20 seats, down from 31 seats at Christmas, reflecting a near wipe-out in Scotland as well as the Yellow Team's continuing failure to make any substantial recocery in the polls with the sands of time now fast running out. Were the very clever Oxford Professor to be proved broadly correct, might now be the time to contemplate taking those 9/2 odds on offer from those nice folk at SkyBet on the LibDems winning between 11 - 20 seats at the GE, which isn't that far removed from Sporting's mid spread price of 24 seats? DYOR.
I would put the LDs in the 23 - 27 range. In some seats they are shoring up their vote where the main opposition have an inadequate ground campaign.
Next weeks polls should be a guide to trends.If the 37% in the latest is repeated in other polls for the Tories, and there is no Lib Dem improvement then I think the Tories will at worst be able to win enough seats for a coalition with the Northern Irish to to give an overall majority. and at best with SNP riding high they could get an overall majority.
Caution over next weeks polls needs to demonstrated.
Polling over holidays is tricky and mixed with the fallout from the debates. A better and more rounded picture should emerge by Friday.
PBers, many thanks for your commentary on last night's debate - I was settled with some claret, cheese and grapes, when elder son involved me in a 3 hour conference call.
Am surprised at the viewing figures, but should not be as the holidaymakers here after a week of rain and cold winds would have needed some light relief.
Thought all the politicians were somewhat disingenuous as they did not mention the two elephants they had hidden in the kitchens.
1. The state of bankruptcy of the UK and the lack of wealth to 'trickle down'. Some 20-30 years ago at an annual review with one's employer, it was customary to receive a cost of living rise - being separate from a promotion rise. Then the UK made more things for its own consumption and exported the rest to other countries which included those in development.
Today, those same countries have better technology, education and lower costs than us and are exporting to us. In fact we make very little today (including energy). So where will the wealth come from to 'trickle down' and give a pay rise? In reality we all need a massive pay reduction and as @malcolmg says, stop rewarding those not in work so well.
2. Everybody ignored or was too scared to mention the potential upcoming intercontinental conflict/war with militant Islam. Even Farage was not explicit on this point. In reality, the UK could not afford to take part.
I think I read we actually manufacturer more than ever, but it's a smaller part of the economy. Minis and range rovers and airbus wings and engines add value. Just how much did we consume in the eara of Dickens, how long did we Iive, how many doctors nurses midwives did we have. What was infant mortality. How many people could afford 4wheeled transport. Are you sure you are a financier? Does any body call a clear red bordeaux a claret any more
The UK is not bankrupt. It is paying its way and will continue so with a tory govt.
Then you read wrongly.
Manufacturing output is still way behind its pre recession peak and even further behind its all time high, which was as long ago as 2000.
The wider industrial output is even more disasterous being being below not only pre recession and the 2000 all time highs but also being below the output of 2010 and 1990.
If I were Sturgeon , I would push her MP`s in any post election talks to have a red line. That each part of this United Kingdom must have a separate vote on staying in or leaving the EC. Nicola mentioned it last night , sets it up quite nicely, that the power might start to move from westminster London to the regional parliaments.
And I think that's a completely outrageous proposal.
Let's say - made up numbers, obviously - that England voted 90/10 to leave the EU and Scotland voted 51/49 to stay in. It would be wrong that Scotland could veto the overwhelming wishes of the British population as a whole
To be fair many federal nations have similar requirements. In Australia to pass a constitutional amendment you require a majority of votes in the country as a whole, plus a majority of votes winning in a majority of states.
In your (extremely unlikely IMO) scenario I'd think we'd need a further referendum to sort it out. Would England like to leave Scotland and the EU?
Charles will be of the opinion that Westminster , ie England make the decisions, other countries should know their place. You are talking about democracy which is similar to treason in the eyes of the elite in London.
If we're one United Kingdom then that isn't unreasonable.
The North West is bigger than Scotland but we don't get a Barnett formula or a veto on reform.
You need to stop voting in tossers and do something about it then. London craps on North of England as well as Scotland, Scotland has finally woken up and is doing something about it.
As a Thatcher voting Tartan Tory you must be dismayed by the leftward lurch of the SNP under Sturgeon. There are already signs that she is damaging Scottish business.
I have some reservations shall we say but still the only party that is interested in Scotland and so until there is any competition it can only be SNP.
If I were Sturgeon , I would push her MP`s in any post election talks to have a red line. That each part of this United Kingdom must have a separate vote on staying in or leaving the EC. Nicola mentioned it last night , sets it up quite nicely, that the power might start to move from westminster London to the regional parliaments.
And I think that's a completely outrageous proposal.
Let's say - made up numbers, obviously - that England voted 90/10 to leave the EU and Scotland voted 51/49 to stay in. It would be wrong that Scotland could veto the overwhelming wishes of the British population as a whole
To be fair many federal nations have similar requirements. In Australia to pass a constitutional amendment you require a majority of votes in the country as a whole, plus a majority of votes winning in a majority of states.
In your (extremely unlikely IMO) scenario I'd think we'd need a further referendum to sort it out. Would England like to leave Scotland and the EU?
Charles will be of the opinion that Westminster , ie England make the decisions, other countries should know their place. You are talking about democracy which is similar to treason in the eyes of the elite in London.
If we're one United Kingdom then that isn't unreasonable.
The North West is bigger than Scotland but we don't get a Barnett formula or a veto on reform.
You need to stop voting in tossers and do something about it then. London craps on North of England as well as Scotland, Scotland has finally woken up and is doing something about it.
Who do you blame when it all goes wrong? The UK of course has had generations of regional policy and decentralisation.
PBers, many thanks for your commentary on last night's debate - I was settled with some claret, cheese and grapes, when elder son involved me in a 3 hour conference call.
Am surprised at the viewing figures, but should not be as the holidaymakers here after a week of rain and cold winds would have needed some light relief.
Thought all the politicians were somewhat disingenuous as they did not mention the two elephants they had hidden in the kitchens.
1. The state of bankruptcy of the UK and the lack of wealth to 'trickle down'. Some 20-30 years ago at an annual review with one's employer, it was customary to receive a cost of living rise - being separate from a promotion rise. Then the UK made more things for its own consumption and exported the rest to other countries which included those in development.
Today, those same countries have better technology, education and lower costs than us and are exporting to us. In fact we make very little today (including energy). So where will the wealth come from to 'trickle down' and give a pay rise? In reality we all need a massive pay reduction and as @malcolmg says, stop rewarding those not in work so well.
2. Everybody ignored or was too scared to mention the potential upcoming intercontinental conflict/war with militant Islam. Even Farage was not explicit on this point. In reality, the UK could not afford to take part.
Financier , for once we do agree, this country needs a real transformation and the stale Tory/labour club are not the ones to do it. They will just continue to take turns and enrich themselves.
Malcolm: it can as much a surprise to me as to you: a meeting of great minds or just unveiling? However, it there a party/party leader who is brave enough to do it?
Mr. Speaking, in the past, but there's also a divided right now (I agree UKIP is a bad of an odd fish, and shouldn't be classed as just Conservative Ultra).
Good morning all. Got up late and have just finished a pleasant brunch. Being Good Friday, I'm praying that I can forget politics for a day; but I guess I can't.
Stephen Fisher's current projection shows the LibDems winning just 20 seats, down from 31 seats at Christmas, reflecting a near wipe-out in Scotland as well as the Yellow Team's continuing failure to make any substantial recocery in the polls with the sands of time now fast running out. Were the very clever Oxford Professor to be proved broadly correct, might now be the time to contemplate taking those 9/2 odds on offer from those nice folk at SkyBet on the LibDems winning between 11 - 20 seats at the GE, which isn't that far removed from Sporting's mid spread price of 24 seats? DYOR.
I would put the LDs in the 23 - 27 range. In some seats they are shoring up their vote where the main opposition have an inadequate ground campaign.
Next weeks polls should be a guide to trends.If the 37% in the latest is repeated in other polls for the Tories, and there is no Lib Dem improvement then I think the Tories will at worst be able to win enough seats for a coalition with the Northern Irish to to give an overall majority. and at best with SNP riding high they could get an overall majority.
Caution over next weeks polls needs to demonstrated.
Polling over holidays is tricky and mixed with the fallout from the debates. A better and more rounded picture should emerge by Friday.
PBers, many thanks for your commentary on last night's debate - I was settled with some claret, cheese and grapes, when elder son involved me in a 3 hour conference call.
Am surprised at the viewing figures, but should not be as the holidaymakers here after a week of rain and cold winds would have needed some light relief.
Thought all the politicians were somewhat disingenuous as they did not mention the two elephants they had hidden in the kitchens.
1. The state of bankruptcy of the UK and the lack of wealth to 'trickle down'. Some 20-30 years ago at an annual review with one's employer, it was customary to receive a cost of living rise - being separate from a promotion rise. Then the UK made more things for its own consumption and exported the rest to other countries which included those in development.
2. Everybody ignored or was too scared to mention the potential upcoming intercontinental conflict/war with militant Islam. Even Farage was not explicit on this point. In reality, the UK could not afford to take part.
I think I read we actually manufacturer more than ever, but it's a smaller part of the economy. Minis and range rovers and airbus wings and engines add value. Just how much did we consume in the eara of Dickens, how long did we Iive, how many doctors nurses midwives did we have. What was infant mortality. How many people could afford 4wheeled transport. Are you sure you are a financier? Does any body call a clear red bordeaux a claret any more
The UK is not bankrupt. It is paying its way and will continue so with a tory govt.
Then you read wrongly.
Manufacturing output is still way behind its pre recession peak and even further behind its all time high, which was as long ago as 2000.
The wider industrial output is even more disasterous being being below not only pre recession and the 2000 all time highs but also being below the output of 2010 and 1990.
If I were Sturgeon , I would push her MP`s in any post election talks to have a red line. That each part of this United Kingdom must have a separate vote on staying in or leaving the EC. Nicola mentioned it last night , sets it up quite nicely, that the power might start to move from westminster London to the regional parliaments.
And I think that's a completely outrageous proposal.
Let's say - made up numbers, obviously - that England voted 90/10 to leave the EU and Scotland voted 51/49 to stay in. It would be wrong that Scotland could veto the overwhelming wishes of the British population as a whole
I agree it's appalling, that kind of result would lead to a constitutional crisis that would inevitably lead to Scotland leaving/being pushed out of the UK. A nightmare scenario for Sturgeon and the SNP I'm sure you would agree.
No, it wouldn't.
But it might be one of the few reasonable grounds for a re-run of the Scottish referendum
Which is precisely why the SNP is praying for a Tory victory in May. Funnily enough, though, Sturgeon will not help with that. She does not scare right-wing, UKIP-inclined English voters in the way that Alex Salmond does. The SNP need to get him back on TVs down south asap. It could be the difference between a hung Parliament and a Tory majority.
Mr. Speaking, in the past, but there's also a divided right now (I agree UKIP is a bad of an odd fish, and shouldn't be classed as just Conservative Ultra).
What sort of English is that? Please decipher; and a good Easter to you.
Anyone who believes that Labour majority is now impossible should be laying Labour in their 315th+ most winnable seats in England and Wales, such as by backing the Tories in Redditch, Tamworth, Brigg and Goole, etc., or by doing the equivalent in seats reckoned likely for the SNP. This is much more profitable than laying Labour majority outright.
rogerh No, according to UK Polling Report a total of Tory 37, Labour 35, LD 7 gives 300 Tory seats, 312 Labour and 11 LDs, even if the Tories come out ahead on seats with Labour losing seats to the SNP they would still need both the LDs and DUP in all likelihood for a majority (assuming LD incumbency gives them a few more seats) http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/swing-calculator
So please feel free to take up my suggestion in the second paragraph
I've long thought that the DfID budget should be used to pay for services provided by other departments - peacekeeping and mine clearance being obvious ones - that are really about helping other countries. I'd also argue that they should pay for the BBC World Service as that has real value for this country and has been sadly neglected by the BBC once its budget was transferred.
On chronic medicine, I think it's far simpler. I quite like the idea of requiring healthcare insurance for new immigrants. And if someone is here on a tourist visa, then we should definitely treat them in the case of an acute medical issue (that's just humanity). But a chronic condition like HIV? Diagnose them, give them their first course of medicine, sure. But they shouldn't have any right to remain in the country just because they are ill. Medications are easily available globally these days.
An inevitable consequence of the government borrowing money to subsidise low skilled wealth consuming jobs.
As the ONS states we have unprecedently stagnant productivity and an all time record current account deficit.
Governments have borrowed a trillion pounds plus during the last decade to keep people spending and happy whilst the UK economic fundamentals disintegrate.
A UK economic carcrash is a certainty - its just a matter of when, how hard, who feels most pain and which government it happens under.
" We have a Tory hegemony? That must come as a surprise to a Tory party that hasn't won a majority in over 20 years." Kle4
Point taken - but I include in the term 'hegemony' an overwhelming Tory press - 6 or 7 papers and of course today its emblematic with the Sun being wrong with the truth as Ed won ComRes etc.,
The dominant coverage is 'pro-Tory' with the BBC lapdog re-cycling the Tory press agenda The BBC is guilty of what is known as 'Churnalism' in the trade ; For example the Conservative Party initiated the business Telegraph letter consisted of Tory funders, Tory peers etc., yet the BBC did little journalism on this. Other media outlets such as ITV, C4 and even SKY seem better at being impartial. I have always defended the BBC during my lifetime but their uncritical acceptance of the Tory focused headlines and their current agenda is distorting our UK democracy
If I were Sturgeon , I would push her MP`s in any post election talks to have a red line. That each part of this United Kingdom must have a separate vote on staying in or leaving the EC. Nicola mentioned it last night , sets it up quite nicely, that the power might start to move from westminster London to the regional parliaments.
And I think that's a completely outrageous proposal.
Let's say - made up numbers, obviously - that England voted 90/10 to leave the EU and Scotland voted 51/49 to stay in. It would be wrong that Scotland could veto the overwhelming wishes of the British population as a whole
I agree it's appalling, that kind of result would lead to a constitutional crisis that would inevitably lead to Scotland leaving/being pushed out of the UK. A nightmare scenario for Sturgeon and the SNP I'm sure you would agree.
No, it wouldn't.
But it might be one of the few reasonable grounds for a re-run of the Scottish referendum
I'm just discussing Yorkcities scenario where a narrow Scotland vote in favour of the EU vetoed the overwhelming UK wide vote against the EU?
I can't see how that would be anything other than a constitutional crisis.
Mr. K, thanks. I prefer Easter to Christmas. Here's my bulletproof reasoning [which I am writing purely to enlighten you, and not remotely because I'm procrastinating]: 1) No ridiculous 4 month run-up, including no 'Black Friday' nonsense. 2) All the presents are chocolate. 3) All the presents are inexpensive. 4) You only need to buy a handful of presents. 5) Immediately after Easter the shops are full of cut-price chocolate, which was already really cheap.
On that theme, here's a lovely (very) short story: thaddeuswhite.weebly.com/writing-blog/sir-edric-and-the-vampire-lord
UKIP: often seen as just being very Conservative, or old-fashioned Conservative. I do think it shouldn't be classified entirely that way, as it's socially conservative, which transcends the old left/right spectrum (lots of otherwise lefty white working class types are socially conservative).
I did not watch the debate, but given the polling it does not seem as if it is going to be a game-changer. Much more significant, it seems to me, is the 37% the Tories got in the YG last night. A score like that on GE day itself sees them moving towards the possibility of a small overall majority. A couple more repeats - or replications in other polls - and we could see a full-scale Labour meltdown.
I have been thinking about the meltdown scenario for a while now.
A trickle away could turn into a flood as people decide to vote for who most enthuses them rather than sticking with an uninspiring Labour out of loyalty or Stop-The-Tory thinking.
On the basis of what I've read about last night, and on the basis of so many Labour supporters on here clearly being more enamoured with Sturgeon, it's a definite risk.
Ed needs to thank his lucky stars that it's Natalie Bennett on stage for the Greens rather than Caroline Lucas.
Put her on one side and Nicola on the other, and he would be toast. Sub-Gordon at the ballot box, certainly.
MD The 'Act of Union' with Wales was in 1536, and of course they had in effect been united since the days of Edward 1st and the creation of Princes of Wales with English monarchs ruling both nations
I listened to a Kipper spokesman (O'Flynn?) earlier on R5L discussing the HIV medicine bill for immigrants. He mentioned an International Health Service instead of a National Health Service.
Now I'm in favour of the Tories' commitment to give 0.7% of GDP to International Aid - one thing Cameron has dome well on. Surely immigrants coming to use our HIV medication counts as International aid? Why not transfer the cost to this budget?
But it was instructive to see the reaction on here last night to Farage even mentioning HIV medication and immigrant?
"Please, miss, Nigel said a nasty word." Teacher (metropolitan liberal elite) comes over. "Nigel, don't you dare say that." "But miss, why?" "Because I say so."
There are two problems with this ... (1) The electorate don't like being treated like naughty children, (2) They begin to suspect teacher has no coherent answer - and they are right.
So please feel free to take up my suggestion in the second paragraph
Kips get offended when gays want to get married. Can't they understand how other people get offended when Kips use race fear to their own advantage?
If I were Sturgeon , I would push her MP`s in any post election talks to have a red line. That each part of this United Kingdom must have a separate vote on staying in or leaving the EC. Nicola mentioned it last night , sets it up quite nicely, that the power might start to move from westminster London to the regional parliaments.
And I think that's a completely outrageous proposal.
Let's say - made up numbers, obviously - that England voted 90/10 to leave the EU and Scotland voted 51/49 to stay in. It would be wrong that Scotland could veto the overwhelming wishes of the British population as a whole
To be fair many federal nations have similar requirements. In Australia to pass a constitutional amendment you require a majority of votes in the country as a whole, plus a majority of votes winning in a majority of states.
elite in London.
You need to stop voting in tossers and do something about it then. London craps on North of England as well as Scotland, Scotland has finally woken up and is doing something about it.
Who do you blame when it all goes wrong? The UK of course has had generations of regional policy and decentralisation.
The UK has lost its way , it is totally unfair country now. Since Thatcher it has become ever more London centric at the expense of other parts of the country. There is a small window left to arrest this or the country will break up, simple as that as you can only crap on people for so long. We need firm government , not spineless, chinless wonders who are either rich and have no clue or have never had a real job and have no clue, basing things on focus groups etc. I say that as someone who is not among the unfortunate as well. It needs to get self respect back , not allowing people to do better out of work than in work, not helping employers pay low wages , chase the bad guys who hoover up the cash and avoid/evade paying tax , etc etc . Firm but fair and you thrive by your own efforts with a safety net for real unfortunates and no establishment / corporations robbing us blind and filling their own pockets.
If I were Sturgeon , I would push her MP`s in any post election talks to have a red line. That each part of this United Kingdom must have a separate vote on staying in or leaving the EC. Nicola mentioned it last night , sets it up quite nicely, that the power might start to move from westminster London to the regional parliaments.
And I think that's a completely outrageous proposal.
Let's say - made up numbers, obviously - that England voted 90/10 to leave the EU and Scotland voted 51/49 to stay in. It would be wrong that Scotland could veto the overwhelming wishes of the British population as a whole
I agree it's appalling, that kind of result would lead to a constitutional crisis that would inevitably lead to Scotland leaving/being pushed out of the UK. A nightmare scenario for Sturgeon and the SNP I'm sure you would agree.
No, it wouldn't.
But it might be one of the few reasonable grounds for a re-run of the Scottish referendum
I'm just discussing Yorkcities scenario where a narrow Scotland vote in favour of the EU vetoed the overwhelming UK wide vote against the EU?
I can't see how that would be anything other than a constitutional crisis.
I agree - but that's why Scotland shouldn't have a veto: the debate arose from me criticising Sturgeon's demand in yesterday's debate.
Anyone who believes that Labour majority is now impossible should be laying Labour in their 315th+ most winnable seats in England and Wales, such as by backing the Tories in Redditch, Tamworth, Brigg and Goole, etc., or by doing the equivalent in seats reckoned likely for the SNP. This is much more profitable than laying Labour majority outright.
Those who accept Professor Fisher can go even further. His latest forecast indicates that the maximum number of Labour seats on a 95% prediction intervals is now only 298. I think that is way low to be honest but there it is.
One complication is of course that they may well win seats up to target 328 and then suffer compensating losses in Scotland to bring them down again. I am not sure your targets has taken that into account.
Mr. HYUFD, aye, it was Edward I's time I was thinking of. [In stark contrast to Scotland, where he acted like a cock, Wales provoked him, which turned out not to be terribly clever].
"I thought Leanne Wood came across well, obviously not as experienced but sounded like a real person...."
Exactly what I thought.
How pleasant to find a point of agreement with you, Malcolm.
Happy Easter.
Thanks Peter, same to you , hope you get a good few winners
Thanks Malcolm.
If you are dabbling yourself today you might like to invest a few chocolate buttons on....
Lingfield: 4.15 Harry Hurricane 7/1 4.45 Hidden Gold
Good luck if you follow me in, as PfP would say.
I am on Peter, thanks.
I like Tadqeeq in the 2-55 at Musselburgh, first time run in a handicap for Haggas, his strike rate for such runners is 16/59 over the last year, or 27%, and has the admirable Paul Hanagan riding. Bottom weight and stable won the race last year.
Paul Goodman ConHome (Clegg) "spent much of the evening urinating on the Prime Minister’s leg"
"Nick Clegg. The proverbial visitor from Mars would have gasped to be told that the Liberal Democrat leader has been deputy to the Conservative one for five years. Clegg’s plan was to counter the charge that he’s Cameron’s poodle. He thus spent much of the evening urinating on the Prime Minister’s leg, while trying to avoid also utilising the Miliband lampost. Clegg was a ghostly echo of the young turk who swept all before him in 2010 – direct, quick, potentially engaging. But he got badly bossed by Nigel Farage during the immigration debate."
Perhaps some of the half-wits over at ConHome think that Coalition candidates are standing at the general election. They forget the LibDems and Conservatives are two competing parties.
Little wonder PB reprobates are exiled to ConHome which is the font of muddled thinking.
" We have a Tory hegemony? That must come as a surprise to a Tory party that hasn't won a majority in over 20 years." Kle4
Point taken - but I include in the term 'hegemony' an overwhelming Tory press - 6 or 7 papers and of course today its emblematic with the Sun being wrong with the truth as Ed won ComRes etc.,
The dominant coverage is 'pro-Tory' with the BBC lapdog re-cycling the Tory press agenda The BBC is guilty of what is known as 'Churnalism' in the trade ; For example the Conservative Party initiated the business Telegraph letter consisted of Tory funders, Tory peers etc., yet the BBC did little journalism on this. Other media outlets such as ITV, C4 and even SKY seem better at being impartial. I have always defended the BBC during my lifetime but their uncritical acceptance of the Tory focused headlines and their current agenda is distorting our UK democracy
Hmm, I can see the paper press being predominantly Tory, but not the BBC part. I scoff at the rabidly anti-BBC stuff many Tories post, but it did seem notable last night that the headline about leaders clashing was about immigration and the NHS, areas of Tory weakness, with the economy, seen as a Tory strength (by them at any rate), only mentioned in the subheading through the prism of spending cuts.
Comments
You are talking about democracy which is similar to treason in the eyes of the elite in London.
The DUP compete against the UUP, SDLP, Sinn Fein and Alliance. They don't compete against any of the parties on stage last night, so there was utterly no reason whatsoever for them to be there. If they were then you'd need to include the other NI parties to make it 11. Have a localised NI debate with the NI parties.
It's also quite an effective line of attack. Wales is one of the poorest areas in Europe (Anglesey is the poorest county in Northern Europe and comparable to most of Greece). As a result, many Welsh people do feel pretty alienated by politics. If she can convince voters there that the reason for their troubles is that over the last 30 or so years Labour MPs have ignored their constituents' needs/wishes in order to shin up Westminster's greasy pole, which is more geared to a national economy dominated by south-east England, it could well be a vote winner.
In Kingston the deputy group leader of the LibDems reigned last week after only turning up to 7% of meetings that he had been meant to attend over the last year. There will now be a byelection on the same day as the GE in Grove award which is a nutri marginal and where theLD got in by just 2 votes last year.
I am hearing that the local organisation in Kingston has crashed and burned since they lost the council.
Maybe just maybe Ed Davey could be in trouble..
I am sure Mark will have some pointer as to why I am being ridicolous..
The North West is bigger than Scotland but we don't get a Barnett formula or a veto on reform.
I thought Ed did very well last night, but he certainly didn't capture the mood on things like austerity - on that issue he has no answer to the fact that his and the Tories' plans are broadly similar and all he is saying is he will be nicer about it. The difference between them on that issue at least is not very wide at all.
Am surprised at the viewing figures, but should not be as the holidaymakers here after a week of rain and cold winds would have needed some light relief.
Thought all the politicians were somewhat disingenuous as they did not mention the two elephants they had hidden in the kitchens.
1. The state of bankruptcy of the UK and the lack of wealth to 'trickle down'. Some 20-30 years ago at an annual review with one's employer, it was customary to receive a cost of living rise - being separate from a promotion rise. Then the UK made more things for its own consumption and exported the rest to other countries which included those in development.
Today, those same countries have better technology, education and lower costs than us and are exporting to us. In fact we make very little today (including energy). So where will the wealth come from to 'trickle down' and give a pay rise? In reality we all need a massive pay reduction and as @malcolmg says, stop rewarding those not in work so well.
2. Everybody ignored or was too scared to mention the potential upcoming intercontinental conflict/war with militant Islam. Even Farage was not explicit on this point. In reality, the UK could not afford to take part.
Anyway, back on topic, I thought Ed did pretty well but he didn't land any knock-out blows - and he really had to as the event was probably the last opportunity that he had to do so.
Cameron played it safe and time will tell whether that was the right move. Sturgeon was the star but I guess we expected that. The rest including Cleggie largely irrelevant.
The idea that normal people wouldn't be interested is belied by the fact 7m watched it. We have to accept that it broad terms, PBers are not normal when it comes to politics... Much of what the leaders said would have felt new to most people
From my brief sky plus fast forwarding my main impression was that it looked too hot in the studio.. Cameron, Miliband and Farage were a bit clammy looking, Clegg and the women seemed ok. I'd probably have melted.
Well done @Pong for spotting the tie bet with Coral.. I owe you a pint or two at the next PB drink
In the end, the debates damaged Labour and Brown almost as much as the Tories. But, I agree with you: it's allowed the Tories to share the blame and absorb a lot of old Lib Dem votes.
Those with money will have gone away and won't be polled therefore they could be skewed towards labour.
If Tories still ahead on this weekends polls then that could tell you Eds in big trouble..
Just how much did we consume in the eara of Dickens, how long did we Iive, how many doctors nurses midwives did we have. What was infant mortality. How many people could afford 4wheeled transport.
Are you sure you are a financier?
Does any body call a clear red bordeaux a claret any more
The UK is not bankrupt. It is paying its way and will continue so with a tory govt.
I think the SNP's position is only going to strengthen as we approach May and they could end up with over 50% of the vote. Consider the following factors:
- SLAB are already in meltdown, with recriminations about their impending defeat already setting in. I think they’ll struggle to get 25% of the vote. SLAB are yet to convince anyone that they’re not still a Branch Office of London
- In terms of tactical voting, other than a few diehard Unionist Scottish Tories who might vote Labour, the vast majority of Scottish Tories and SLAB supporters, hate each other more than they hate the SNP. So the SNP are likely to be net beneficiaries of any tactical voting.
- Ed Milliband is so unpopular in Scotland that the more we see of him on the TV screens yet more SLAB support will melt away to the SNP, Greens, UKIP and even the LibDems.
- There are no signs of the LibDems staging any recovery, if Kennedy is at risk, no LibDem seat in Scotland is safe.
- The SNP membership surge continues, giving them phenomenal ground resources to deploy in any seat where the mainstream parties have any remaining hopes.
"Nick Clegg. The proverbial visitor from Mars would have gasped to be told that the Liberal Democrat leader has been deputy to the Conservative one for five years. Clegg’s plan was to counter the charge that he’s Cameron’s poodle. He thus spent much of the evening urinating on the Prime Minister’s leg, while trying to avoid also utilising the Miliband lampost. Clegg was a ghostly echo of the young turk who swept all before him in 2010 – direct, quick, potentially engaging. But he got badly bossed by Nigel Farage during the immigration debate."
http://electionsetc.com/2015/04/03/forecast-update-3-april-2015/
Chance of a Labour majority - Nil!
EMWNBPM
I can't see Labour making the 35-37 net gains direct from the Conservatives they'd need to achieve that in E&W after last night, and the way the polls and forecasts are now moving. DYOR.
She thinks like Farage she can cut off the rest of the world.
But she also thinks the saviour back stop is England.
We are running an unacceptably high trade deficit (which predictably never even got a mention last night) which is impoverishing our country as our productive assets (like range rover) fall into foreign ownership and generate profits for others.
But we are still a high income country which has control of its own destiny provided we make the right choices. It is not impossible, as seemed to be hinted at last night, that our children will be better off than us. It is just we have less leeway for more mistakes than we used to have.
https://twitter.com/MarkHopkins123/status/583931694094405632
I listened to a Kipper spokesman (O'Flynn?) earlier on R5L discussing the HIV medicine bill for immigrants. He mentioned an International Health Service instead of a National Health Service.
Now I'm in favour of the Tories' commitment to give 0.7% of GDP to International Aid - one thing Cameron has dome well on. Surely immigrants coming to use our HIV medication counts as International aid? Why not transfer the cost to this budget?
But it was instructive to see the reaction on here last night to Farage even mentioning HIV medication and immigrant?
"Please, miss, Nigel said a nasty word."
Teacher (metropolitan liberal elite) comes over. "Nigel, don't you dare say that."
"But miss, why?"
"Because I say so."
There are two problems with this ...
(1) The electorate don't like being treated like naughty children,
(2) They begin to suspect teacher has no coherent answer - and they are right.
So please feel free to take up my suggestion in the second paragraph
Personally I'd be in favour of a reformed House of Lords, where S/W/NI are over-represented relative to population (in the same way that the small states are in the US senate) to help protect your interests. But why Scotland should have more importance than, say, Yorkshire, escapes me
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-china-32172600
Not that up on China, but my understanding is that, after the Communist Party tried to eat its own head after Mao, there was an unwritten agreement that the top dogs wouldn't bite one another. That consensus has ended, with Xi Jinping taking down several major chaps (the charged fellow in the story was the head of security).
There's got to be a risk of someone biting back.
Rochdale Labour councillor's home raided by anti-terror police after his 21-year-old son was arrested on... - http://tinyurl.com/na2t2tn
Ed's day about to get worse?
But it might be one of the few reasonable grounds for a re-run of the Scottish referendum
It didn't pan out like that at all. It just reminded me that the left (including Farage with is WWC dog whistle) are hopelessly divided in this country and a divided left leads to tory governments.
Polling over holidays is tricky and mixed with the fallout from the debates. A better and more rounded picture should emerge by Friday.
Manufacturing output is still way behind its pre recession peak and even further behind its all time high, which was as long ago as 2000.
http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/datasets-and-tables/data-selector.html?cdid=K22A&dataset=diop&table-id=A1
The wider industrial output is even more disasterous being being below not only pre recession and the 2000 all time highs but also being below the output of 2010 and 1990.
http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/datasets-and-tables/data-selector.html?cdid=K222&dataset=diop&table-id=A1
By comparison wealth consumption steadily rises and at a far faster rate than the economy as a whole:
http://ons.gov.uk/ons/dcp171778_399119.pdf
Which is where the trillion pounds plus governments have borrowed during the last decade has gone.
And why the UK's current account deficit is at an all time high.
LIVING BEYOND MEANS
The UK of course has had generations of regional policy and decentralisation.
Got up late and have just finished a pleasant brunch. Being Good Friday, I'm praying that I can forget politics for a day; but I guess I can't.
The UK's trading performance actually shows signs of improvement, but it's offset by falling overseas earnings.
http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/swing-calculator
On chronic medicine, I think it's far simpler. I quite like the idea of requiring healthcare insurance for new immigrants. And if someone is here on a tourist visa, then we should definitely treat them in the case of an acute medical issue (that's just humanity). But a chronic condition like HIV? Diagnose them, give them their first course of medicine, sure. But they shouldn't have any right to remain in the country just because they are ill. Medications are easily available globally these days.
http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/dcp171778_397326.pdf
An inevitable consequence of the government borrowing money to subsidise low skilled wealth consuming jobs.
As the ONS states we have unprecedently stagnant productivity and an all time record current account deficit.
Governments have borrowed a trillion pounds plus during the last decade to keep people spending and happy whilst the UK economic fundamentals disintegrate.
A UK economic carcrash is a certainty - its just a matter of when, how hard, who feels most pain and which government it happens under.
Point taken - but I include in the term 'hegemony' an overwhelming Tory press - 6 or 7 papers and of course today its emblematic with the Sun being wrong with the truth as Ed won ComRes etc.,
The dominant coverage is 'pro-Tory' with the BBC lapdog re-cycling the Tory press agenda The BBC is guilty of what is known as 'Churnalism' in the trade ; For example the Conservative Party initiated the business Telegraph letter consisted of Tory funders, Tory peers etc., yet the BBC did little journalism on this. Other media outlets such as ITV, C4 and even SKY seem better at being impartial. I have always defended the BBC during my lifetime but their uncritical acceptance of the Tory focused headlines and their current agenda is distorting our UK democracy
I can't see how that would be anything other than a constitutional crisis.
1) No ridiculous 4 month run-up, including no 'Black Friday' nonsense.
2) All the presents are chocolate.
3) All the presents are inexpensive.
4) You only need to buy a handful of presents.
5) Immediately after Easter the shops are full of cut-price chocolate, which was already really cheap.
On that theme, here's a lovely (very) short story:
thaddeuswhite.weebly.com/writing-blog/sir-edric-and-the-vampire-lord
UKIP: often seen as just being very Conservative, or old-fashioned Conservative. I do think it shouldn't be classified entirely that way, as it's socially conservative, which transcends the old left/right spectrum (lots of otherwise lefty white working class types are socially conservative).
A trickle away could turn into a flood as people decide to vote for who most enthuses them rather than sticking with an uninspiring Labour out of loyalty or Stop-The-Tory thinking.
On the basis of what I've read about last night, and on the basis of so many Labour supporters on here clearly being more enamoured with Sturgeon, it's a definite risk.
Ed needs to thank his lucky stars that it's Natalie Bennett on stage for the Greens rather than Caroline Lucas.
Put her on one side and Nicola on the other, and he would be toast. Sub-Gordon at the ballot box, certainly.
We need firm government , not spineless, chinless wonders who are either rich and have no clue or have never had a real job and have no clue, basing things on focus groups etc.
I say that as someone who is not among the unfortunate as well. It needs to get self respect back , not allowing people to do better out of work than in work, not helping employers pay low wages , chase the bad guys who hoover up the cash and avoid/evade paying tax , etc etc . Firm but fair and you thrive by your own efforts with a safety net for real unfortunates and no establishment / corporations robbing us blind and filling their own pockets.
One complication is of course that they may well win seats up to target 328 and then suffer compensating losses in Scotland to bring them down again. I am not sure your targets has taken that into account.
Little wonder PB reprobates are exiled to ConHome which is the font of muddled thinking.