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  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,958
    edited April 2015
    TimB When Obama came into office unemployment was 7.8% it is now 5.5%, not perfect no but still a clear improvement. Bush W and Truman also got reelected with similar approval ratings to Obama and now it really is goodnight
  • Tim_BTim_B Posts: 7,669
    HYUFD said:

    TimB When Obama came into office unemployment was 7.8% it is now 5.5%, not perfect no but still a clear improvement and now it really is goodnight

    That's the headline rate which only includes those actively seeking work and also other adjustments. If you ask what percentage of the US work force is working, it's less than 2/3, Lowest for 30 years. It's one of the anomalies of the headline rate that as it decreases because people stop looking, the actual number of people working goes down. There are several million fewer people working than when Obama took office. Google 'labor participation rate'. Don't take my word.
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,708
    Tim_B said:

    HYUFD said:

    TimB When Obama came into office unemployment was 7.8% it is now 5.5%, not perfect no but still a clear improvement and now it really is goodnight

    That's the headline rate which only includes those actively seeking work and also other adjustments. If you ask what percentage of the US work force is working, it's less than 2/3, Lowest for 30 years. It's one of the anomalies of the headline rate that as it decreases because people stop looking, the actual number of people working goes down. There are several million fewer people working than when Obama took office. Google 'labor participation rate'. Don't take my word.
    That'll mainly be demographics, what do the actual numbers for discouraged workers look like?
  • trubluetrublue Posts: 103

    Would these big names at some of our biggest firms have come out in such large numbers if they thought Ed was going to be pM?

    Almost certainly not. Backing the loser makes lobbying the government a lot more difficult and expensive after an election.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,043
    Evening PB
  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    UKIP falling again. The correct spread is, of course, 2 - 4.
  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    Tim_B said:

    HYUFD said:

    TimB When Obama came into office unemployment was 7.8% it is now 5.5%, not perfect no but still a clear improvement and now it really is goodnight

    That's the headline rate which only includes those actively seeking work and also other adjustments. If you ask what percentage of the US work force is working, it's less than 2/3, Lowest for 30 years. It's one of the anomalies of the headline rate that as it decreases because people stop looking, the actual number of people working goes down. There are several million fewer people working than when Obama took office. Google 'labor participation rate'. Don't take my word.
    For right wing people, if unemployment falls under a Tory government then it is the government success, if it falls under Obama then it is not.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,043
    surbiton said:

    UKIP falling again. The correct spread is, of course, 2 - 4.

    Yep, heading down slowly but steadily. I wonder if major party status will reverse the decline.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    As the election draws closer focus sharpens on 'important items facing'

    Country:
    Economy: 52 (+7)
    Immigration: 48 (-3)
    Health: 45 (-)

    You/your family:
    Economy: 49 (+6)
    Health: 42 (+2)
    Pensions: 28 (+1)

    http://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/mdd1v5m0nb/YG-Archive-Pol-Sun-results-310315.pdf
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    What is he up to?? Might tomorrow's polls be more encouraging for the blues.... is that the hint? but then again he's stepping down so is it cos' he's not so bothered the blues aren't recovering...

    Lord Ashcroft‏@LordAshcroft·now17 seconds ago
    I shall sleep soundly tonight....

    more likely he knows Cameron's staying in no 10 so he's no hope of preferment...
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    Is this OGH's first of this month thread ? :smile:
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    BTW does anyone think it's slightly misleading of the Beeb to put the tories on one side and all the other parties on the other in the graphic?

    What kind of subliminal message are they trying to see?
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    Charles said:

    BTW does anyone think it's slightly misleading of the Beeb to put the tories on one side and all the other parties on the other in the graphic?

    What kind of subliminal message are they trying to see?

    Yes - the 'government' - Con + LibD on one side would be a fairer split, unless you were trying to make a point.....
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    JackW said:

    Is this OGH's first of this month thread ? :smile:

    While we're waiting for the latest Dave cannot win objective review of the data thread, the Telegraph has pulled together a summary of some other stories today:

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/picturegalleries/howaboutthat/11506686/April-Fools-Day-2015-The-best-spoofs-and-pranks-in-pictures.html
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,043
    Charles said:

    BTW does anyone think it's slightly misleading of the Beeb to put the tories on one side and all the other parties on the other in the graphic?

    What kind of subliminal message are they trying to see?

    That the Tories are the only choice to form the government, obviously!
  • RogerRoger Posts: 19,981
    Isn't the Telegraph ad potentially the most ill thought out by a political party since Michael Howard thought people might be thinking as he was. So potentially self defeating I thought it was an April Fool. Here's signatory number one...........

    http://www.theguardian.com/business/2015/mar/03/bps-bob-dudley-got-25-pay-rise-as-company-salaries-were-frozen
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    Roger said:

    Isn't the Telegraph ad potentially the most ill thought out by a political party since Michael Howard thought people might be thinking as he was.

    It could be worse.

    They could have used a tax avoiding user of private education in their first PPB......

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3020564/Red-Ed-s-celebrity-phoney-Hobbit-star-wouldn-t-vote-Labour.html
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    The Sun's April Fool a bit Laboured.....

    http://www.sunnation.co.uk/ed-mili-blond/
  • RogerRoger Posts: 19,981
    Carlotta.

    The link you've posted damages no one but the Mail.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,672

    Roger said:

    Isn't the Telegraph ad potentially the most ill thought out by a political party since Michael Howard thought people might be thinking as he was.

    It could be worse.

    They could have used a tax avoiding user of private education in their first PPB......

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3020564/Red-Ed-s-celebrity-phoney-Hobbit-star-wouldn-t-vote-Labour.html

    Not sure too many people will see the equivalance. But the Tories could have a go, I suppose. Endorsements from super-rich company bosses who take massive pay rises while freezing salaries and cutting jobs may not necessarily play as badly as an endorsement from a popular actor who sends his child to a private school, but I would not bet on it.

  • Tim_BTim_B Posts: 7,669
    surbiton said:

    Tim_B said:

    HYUFD said:

    TimB When Obama came into office unemployment was 7.8% it is now 5.5%, not perfect no but still a clear improvement and now it really is goodnight

    That's the headline rate which only includes those actively seeking work and also other adjustments. If you ask what percentage of the US work force is working, it's less than 2/3, Lowest for 30 years. It's one of the anomalies of the headline rate that as it decreases because people stop looking, the actual number of people working goes down. There are several million fewer people working than when Obama took office. Google 'labor participation rate'. Don't take my word.
    For right wing people, if unemployment falls under a Tory government then it is the government success, if it falls under Obama then it is not.
    Let me try this again - It's nothing to do with Obama, right wing people, or anything else like that. The headline unemployment rate, currently around 5.5% is NOT the percentage of the workforce who are unemployed. It only includes those who are actively looking for a job, and is seasonally adjusted, as well as several other adjustments. It is misleading.

    The "Labor Force Participation Rate" is a raw number of the percentage of the American workforce who are working. Please stop arguing from a political view and google it!! It is a much more accurate measurement. Don't take my word for it - Google it and drop your political filter.

    Unemployment - the percentage of the work force who are unemployed - is at a 30 year high. GOOGLE IT!!!! LABOR FORCE PARTICIPATION RATE
  • SMukeshSMukesh Posts: 1,759
    So Lab pulling things back in Scotland which is not unexpected.Should put paid to the Alec Salmond masks.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 19,981
    Carlotta

    "They could have used a tax avoiding user of private education in their first PPB......"

    There's no mention of him being a tax avoider.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,672
    Roger said:

    Isn't the Telegraph ad potentially the most ill thought out by a political party since Michael Howard thought people might be thinking as he was. So potentially self defeating I thought it was an April Fool. Here's signatory number one...........

    http://www.theguardian.com/business/2015/mar/03/bps-bob-dudley-got-25-pay-rise-as-company-salaries-were-frozen

    A quick Google shows there are a few charmers on there. Funnily enough, the Telegraph fails to note how many are long-term Tories, though it does say that at some unspecified points in the past a whopping five of the signatories endorsed Labour.

  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    Roger said:

    Carlotta

    "They could have used a tax avoiding user of private education in their first PPB......"

    There's no mention of him being a tax avoider.

    The star also hit the headlines two years ago after it emerged his long-term partner Amanda Abbington had declared herself bankrupt over an unpaid £120,000 tax bill, despite living with Freeman, who is worth more than £10million.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,415
    SMukesh said:

    So Lab pulling things back in Scotland which is not unexpected.Should put paid to the Alec Salmond masks.


    Which poll shows them pulling things back in Scotland ?
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,043
    Not watched BBC Breakfast in years. Bill Turnbull (god bless him) is interviewing Ed Miliband in a bus. What's going on??
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,043
    Pulpstar said:

    SMukesh said:

    So Lab pulling things back in Scotland which is not unexpected.Should put paid to the Alec Salmond masks.


    Which poll shows them pulling things back in Scotland ?
    The poll of your nightmares, I'm guessing. :naughty:
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    Roger said:

    Carlotta.

    The link you've posted damages no one but the Mail.

    Roger,

    You can't raise the behaviours of Tory backers, then complain when the same is done for Labour backers.

    In any case, the charge with Freeman is hypocrisy, as ever......

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/labour/11504745/Hobbit-star-Martin-Freemans-partner-says-f-the-Tories.html
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,415
    RobD said:

    Pulpstar said:

    SMukesh said:

    So Lab pulling things back in Scotland which is not unexpected.Should put paid to the Alec Salmond masks.


    Which poll shows them pulling things back in Scotland ?
    The poll of your nightmares, I'm guessing. :naughty:
    True :) But the comrades was fine for the SNP
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,672

    Roger said:

    Carlotta

    "They could have used a tax avoiding user of private education in their first PPB......"

    There's no mention of him being a tax avoider.

    The star also hit the headlines two years ago after it emerged his long-term partner Amanda Abbington had declared herself bankrupt over an unpaid £120,000 tax bill, despite living with Freeman, who is worth more than £10million.

    She declared herself bankrupt and then paid back the debts having admitted she made a mistake. Presumably the Mail's lawyers insisted on that info being included.

  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,043
    Pulpstar said:

    RobD said:

    Pulpstar said:

    SMukesh said:

    So Lab pulling things back in Scotland which is not unexpected.Should put paid to the Alec Salmond masks.


    Which poll shows them pulling things back in Scotland ?
    The poll of your nightmares, I'm guessing. :naughty:
    True :) But the comrades was fine for the SNP
    Glorious typo :D
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    SMukesh said:

    So Lab pulling things back in Scotland which is not unexpected.Should put paid to the Alec Salmond masks.

    Really?

    Today's YouGov has them on 28 to SNP on 47.

    Are you upgrading it to 'Disaster' from 'Catastrophe'?
  • SMukeshSMukesh Posts: 1,759
    Pulpstar said:

    SMukesh said:

    So Lab pulling things back in Scotland which is not unexpected.Should put paid to the Alec Salmond masks.


    Which poll shows them pulling things back in Scotland ?
    Comes Scotland which has the gap at 6 in Scottish Labour seats.

  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 54,027

    Roger said:

    Isn't the Telegraph ad potentially the most ill thought out by a political party since Michael Howard thought people might be thinking as he was. So potentially self defeating I thought it was an April Fool. Here's signatory number one...........

    http://www.theguardian.com/business/2015/mar/03/bps-bob-dudley-got-25-pay-rise-as-company-salaries-were-frozen

    A quick Google shows there are a few charmers on there. Funnily enough, the Telegraph fails to note how many are long-term Tories, though it does say that at some unspecified points in the past a whopping five of the signatories endorsed Labour.

    Well there is bound to be plenty of Tories but they fall into the category of "they would say that wouldn't they?" The more significant part is that business leaders who were supportive of Blair or new Labour simply cannot support the anti-business agenda of Ed Miliband. Business support for Labour's plans is down to the semi-mythical Bob who may or may not be in the building trade.

    None of this is a game changer but I do think it feeds into the ideas that Ed is odd, not focussed on the real world, not safe to be let loose on the economy and generally too much of a risk. Of course it also supports the idea that Ed is on the side of the common man, really doesn't like fat cat bosses and doesn't care what they think so it is not all bad for him.

    It did make the idea of starting of the Labour campaign by focussing on business and the EU stuff look eccentric. Maybe the idea was to get it out of the way?

  • logical_songlogical_song Posts: 9,932
    Tim_B said:

    Difficult times for President Obama from recent polls -

    A Quinnipiac poll asked - "Who do you trust more to make decisions that are good for the country?"

    Obama - 42%
    GOP in Congress - 47%
    Don't know - 11%

    A Fox News poll asked - "Do you think "honest" describes President Obama, or not?"

    Yes - 43%
    No - 54%
    Don't know - 3%

    I don't know Quinnipiac, but the Fox figures don't look bad for Obama. Imagine asking that question of Cameron or other leading UK politicians. Also don't forget that it is Fox asking the question.
    https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLA3BD2524FE99BD4D
  • RogerRoger Posts: 19,981
    Carlotta

    You can't raise the behaviours of Tory backers, then complain when the same is done for Labour backers.

    In any case, the charge with Freeman is hypocrisy, as ever......"

    But it isn't. You said he's a tax avoider which the article doesn't say. So all that's left is that he sent his child to a private school that costs "up to £12,000 a year". That just isn't a story. Even one of hypocricy.

    I agree that for Mail readers who have brains the size of moles or for those who only read headlines it might look like something ....but I'm guessing you took the trouble to read the whole article?
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,672
    SMukesh said:

    So Lab pulling things back in Scotland which is not unexpected.Should put paid to the Alec Salmond masks.

    Not sure that's right. All the polls show Labour are on course for a well-deserved shellacking of historical proportions in Scotland.

  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,672
    DavidL said:

    Roger said:

    Isn't the Telegraph ad potentially the most ill thought out by a political party since Michael Howard thought people might be thinking as he was. So potentially self defeating I thought it was an April Fool. Here's signatory number one...........

    http://www.theguardian.com/business/2015/mar/03/bps-bob-dudley-got-25-pay-rise-as-company-salaries-were-frozen

    A quick Google shows there are a few charmers on there. Funnily enough, the Telegraph fails to note how many are long-term Tories, though it does say that at some unspecified points in the past a whopping five of the signatories endorsed Labour.

    Well there is bound to be plenty of Tories but they fall into the category of "they would say that wouldn't they?" The more significant part is that business leaders who were supportive of Blair or new Labour simply cannot support the anti-business agenda of Ed Miliband. Business support for Labour's plans is down to the semi-mythical Bob who may or may not be in the building trade.

    None of this is a game changer but I do think it feeds into the ideas that Ed is odd, not focussed on the real world, not safe to be let loose on the economy and generally too much of a risk. Of course it also supports the idea that Ed is on the side of the common man, really doesn't like fat cat bosses and doesn't care what they think so it is not all bad for him.

    It did make the idea of starting of the Labour campaign by focussing on business and the EU stuff look eccentric. Maybe the idea was to get it out of the way?

    Is the real world the Tories are offering one in which company bosses get huge pay rises while freezing their employees' salaries and laying them off? Or one in which they take huge bonuses while fleecing their customers?

    It seems to me there are some names and records in that list that feed directly into EdM's themes about some elements of big business behaviour.

    Maybe fewer signatories and a bit more vetting may have served the Tories better here.

  • SMukeshSMukesh Posts: 1,759

    SMukesh said:

    So Lab pulling things back in Scotland which is not unexpected.Should put paid to the Alec Salmond masks.

    Really?

    Today's YouGov has them on 28 to SNP on 47.

    Are you upgrading it to 'Disaster' from 'Catastrophe'?
    You have been on here long enough to know subsamples don't matter.
    Check comres poll out.in labour held seats which is a three fourths of Scottish seats,Labour are on 37 to SNP 43.Much better picture than previously projected
  • Tim_BTim_B Posts: 7,669
    @Logical_Song
    Also don't forget that it is Fox asking the question.

    shooting the messenger? The question is the question.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,043
    SMukesh said:

    SMukesh said:

    So Lab pulling things back in Scotland which is not unexpected.Should put paid to the Alec Salmond masks.

    Really?

    Today's YouGov has them on 28 to SNP on 47.

    Are you upgrading it to 'Disaster' from 'Catastrophe'?
    You have been on here long enough to know subsamples don't matter.
    Check comres poll out.in labour held seats which is a three fourths of Scottish seats,Labour are on 37 to SNP 43.Much better picture than previously projected
    To be fair to you, Labour majorities in Scotland are absolutely enormous. Only a tidal wave would defeat them.
  • @MSmithsonPB: Good for CON. Economy moves to top slot in YouGov's issues trackers - those facing the country and you/your family http://t.co/BLiBpch67N
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    SMukesh said:

    Pulpstar said:

    SMukesh said:

    So Lab pulling things back in Scotland which is not unexpected.Should put paid to the Alec Salmond masks.


    Which poll shows them pulling things back in Scotland ?
    Comes Scotland which has the gap at 6 in Scottish Labour seats.

    This is how STV reported that poll:

    The SNP is set for a landslide victory in Labour held seats at May's General Election, according to a new poll.

    Figures suggest 29 of Labour's 40 seats in Scotland could be won by the nationalists, with a 19-point swing in their favour since 2010.


    http://news.stv.tv/scotland-decides/315654-snp-set-for-landslide-victory-in-labour-held-seats-says-itv-comres-poll/
  • richardDoddrichardDodd Posts: 5,472
    Of course in SO world..no leftie business leaders would ever give themselves big rises or even consider fleecing their customers and Roger seems to think that paying half of the average salary to send a kid to school is the norm.. well he would wouldn't he..his fees were in the 30k range and he boasted of giving his daughter a 50k allowance pa..how on earth does she manage.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    SMukesh said:

    SMukesh said:

    So Lab pulling things back in Scotland which is not unexpected.Should put paid to the Alec Salmond masks.

    Really?

    Today's YouGov has them on 28 to SNP on 47.

    Are you upgrading it to 'Disaster' from 'Catastrophe'?
    You have been on here long enough to know subsamples don't matter.
    Check comres poll out.in labour held seats which is a three fourths of Scottish seats,Labour are on 37 to SNP 43.Much better picture than previously projected
    What was the previous position? Isn't the last data we have from GE2010? Not a poll?

    So where's the evidence for 'pulling back'?
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    HYUFD said:

    TimT Not necessarily, McCain was actually neck and neck with Obama after the GOP convention in 2008 before Lehmans went bust despite George W's record low unpopularity

    Not in the swing states he wasn't. National vote means nothing in America, only the swing states count and Obama was crushing Mcain in them from the off.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    SMukesh said:

    SMukesh said:

    So Lab pulling things back in Scotland which is not unexpected.Should put paid to the Alec Salmond masks.

    Really?

    Today's YouGov has them on 28 to SNP on 47.

    Are you upgrading it to 'Disaster' from 'Catastrophe'?
    You have been on here long enough to know subsamples don't matter.
    Check comres poll out.in labour held seats which is a three fourths of Scottish seats,Labour are on 37 to SNP 43.Much better picture than previously projected
    It's equivalent to national vote shares of SNP 45, Labour 30. Not really very much different from other pollsters.

    Since is the first Scottish Westminster poll from ComRes, we don't know how much any difference is down to movement from the last poll and how much is down to different methodologies.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,540
    SMukesh said:

    SMukesh said:

    So Lab pulling things back in Scotland which is not unexpected.Should put paid to the Alec Salmond masks.

    Really?

    Today's YouGov has them on 28 to SNP on 47.

    Are you upgrading it to 'Disaster' from 'Catastrophe'?
    You have been on here long enough to know subsamples don't matter.
    Check comres poll out.in labour held seats which is a three fourths of Scottish seats,Labour are on 37 to SNP 43.Much better picture than previously projected
    A 6% lead for the SNP in Labour-held seats is an awful result for Labour. It roughly equates to a lead of 15% in Scotland as a whole.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 19,981
    DavidL

    "Well there is bound to be plenty of Tories but they fall into the category of "they would say that wouldn't they?" The more significant part is that business leaders who were supportive of Blair or new Labour simply cannot support the anti-business agenda of Ed Miliband. Business support for Labour's plans is down to the semi-mythical Bob who may or may not be in the building trade."

    Slightly tricky for Labour in that at first sight it looks like a massive Tory own goal but one that Labour might be unwilling to exploit because they're timid of looking anti business.

    I think they'll leave it to the unions to produce some posters
  • richardDoddrichardDodd Posts: 5,472
    So Zero Hour contracts are the big target for EdM..How many people are on them and how many of those want to be on them and how many people in yhe country really give a toss.Go for it Ed .. another mighty winner
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    Roger said:

    Carlotta

    You can't raise the behaviours of Tory backers, then complain when the same is done for Labour backers.

    In any case, the charge with Freeman is hypocrisy, as ever......"

    But it isn't. You said he's a tax avoider which the article doesn't say. So all that's left is that he sent his child to a private school that costs "up to £12,000 a year". That just isn't a story. Even one of hypocricy.

    I agree that for Mail readers who have brains the size of moles or for those who only read headlines it might look like something ....but I'm guessing you took the trouble to read the whole article?

    Of course, if a multimillionaire Tory had let his partner declare bankruptcy rather than pay a tax bill no one on the left would have batted an eyelid.....no sireee!
  • Tim_BTim_B Posts: 7,669

    So Zero Hour contracts are the big target for EdM..How many people are on them and how many of those want to be on them and how many people in yhe country really give a toss.Go for it Ed .. another mighty winner

    What exactly is a 'zero hour contract'?
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @tnewtondunn: EXCL: Ed Miliband misled 3 million TV viewers on Syria, claims David Cameron http://t.co/d8Cofpfoqg
  • New thread.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    Tim_B said:

    What exactly is a 'zero hour contract'?

    A contract of employment with no minimum specified hours, and therefore no minimum salary. If they have work for you to do, you get paid. If they have no work on the day, you get no pay.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 19,981
    edited April 2015
    Doddy

    "he boasted of giving his daughter a 50k allowance pa..how on earth does she manage."

    No he didn't! He's not insane. I posted that she and her boyfriend had that as a joint salary. But my point was that when you add two modest young people's salaries together £50,000 is where you get to. I was surprised most people were saying a family income was around £30,000
  • richardDoddrichardDodd Posts: 5,472
    Tim.B..ask EdM..he is going to waste an enormous amount of campaign time banging on about them..His Party must be in despair.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    SMukesh said:

    SMukesh said:

    So Lab pulling things back in Scotland which is not unexpected.Should put paid to the Alec Salmond masks.

    Really?

    Today's YouGov has them on 28 to SNP on 47.

    Are you upgrading it to 'Disaster' from 'Catastrophe'?
    You have been on here long enough to know subsamples don't matter.
    Check comres poll out.in labour held seats which is a three fourths of Scottish seats,Labour are on 37 to SNP 43.Much better picture than previously projected
    You don't understand what that ComRes poll means.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670

    SMukesh said:

    Pulpstar said:

    SMukesh said:

    So Lab pulling things back in Scotland which is not unexpected.Should put paid to the Alec Salmond masks.


    Which poll shows them pulling things back in Scotland ?
    Comes Scotland which has the gap at 6 in Scottish Labour seats.

    This is how STV reported that poll:

    The SNP is set for a landslide victory in Labour held seats at May's General Election, according to a new poll.

    Figures suggest 29 of Labour's 40 seats in Scotland could be won by the nationalists, with a 19-point swing in their favour since 2010.


    http://news.stv.tv/scotland-decides/315654-snp-set-for-landslide-victory-in-labour-held-seats-says-itv-comres-poll/
    And that's working on the assumption of UNS. As even the poll shows the swing is not uniform. The SNP are getting goldilocks swing of just enough in every constituency according to Ashcroft.
  • GadflyGadfly Posts: 1,191
    New thread
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,958
    Alistair (earlier thread) Actually McCain led Obama in many swing state polls in September 2008, in fact in Ohio McCain led for most September polls until the end of the month and the impact of the Lehmans crash filtered through
    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Statewide_opinion_polling_for_the_United_States_presidential_election,_2008#Ohio
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,958
    TimB The low Labour Force Participation rate is mainly a reflection of the aging population according to the CBO half of the 3% decline in labor-force participation is due to ageing of the workforce and over 65 baby boomers dropping out and retiring. Since 2010 the share of discouraged workers following the Crash has also declined, particularly amongst 25-54 year olds who will have left College and are not nearing retirement and most likely to be looking for work
    http://qz.com/286213/the-chart-obama-haters-love-most-and-the-truth-behind-it/
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    HYUFD said:

    Alistair (earlier thread) Actually McCain led Obama in many swing state polls in September 2008, in fact in Ohio McCain led for most September polls until the end of the month and the impact of the Lehmans crash filtered through
    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Statewide_opinion_polling_for_the_United_States_presidential_election,_2008#Ohio

    Of the first 10 polls once you remove the Rasmussen polls who were predicatively terrible at the last two presidential elections You have 5 Obama leads, 1 Mcain lead and a tie.

    The next block of Polls were McCain favourable but a lot of those were by pollsters who only did one poll or still found in McCain's favour even when all other pollsters were reporting an Obama lead later in the campaign.
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