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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » LAB regains YouGov lead and Newsnight index has gap down to

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  • sarissasarissa Posts: 2,001

    Some of the signatories to the letter were also prominent for the No side in the indyref - expect to see the SNP bigging up SLAB 'hypocrisy' over their support for them then.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @PickardJE: Blair, October 1995: "Part-time employees will no longer be treated as second class citizens. There will be an end to zero-hours contracts."
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,958
    TimT Well either they pay up or they drop out of insurance again. The GOP are all very good at opposing but clueless when it comes to proposing any real constructive proposals on healthcare, when Republicans do actually do some thinking on it, as Romney to his credit did, they end up producing something not a million miles from the present legislation
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 52,135
    Ave_it said:

    It's April in under one hour! There should be a "Super-ELBOW" for all polls with fieldwork end-dates during March due in the next 48 hours, assuming there are a couple of late stragglers with fieldwork ending today or yesterday.

    Will CON be ahead in every poll in April?!
    Probably not, but they ought to be ahead for the month as a whole!

    At the mo, March is looking like a very narrow 0.1% Labour Lead. In Feb it was 1.2% Lab, and Jan 1.1%
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,533
    edited March 2015
    kle4 said:

    The next 007 should be woman, honestly. I thought everyone was agreed Idris Elba should be the next Bond, as reason demands.

    Night all.

    Do you think Ed even watches Bond? Isn't it everything he hates? And then of course there is the business angle...the reason the next 007 will be a man, above and beyond that is the story, is the brand...Same with Top Gear. If it isn't 3 middle aged blokes titting about and BBC go for some PC eco friendly show, it won't be doing the massive business it currently does.

    But what does Ed know about any of this stuff?
  • Miliband's leftward move must be influenced by the SNP in a vain attempt to mitigate his loses in Scotland but also to provide some common ground for confidence and supply with the SNP. The move by business may be ridiculed by the left but unless business is successful there is no money for the NHS Education and yes even benefits. This election is a straight fight between the left and the rest
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,387
    edited March 2015
    philiph said:

    You have to admit 36 is a good score for Labour.

    How many of these 36% will turn out for Ed on the day though?

  • MTimTMTimT Posts: 7,034
    HYUFD said:

    TimT Well either they pay up or they drop out of insurance again. The GOP are all very good at opposing but clueless when it comes to proposing any real constructive proposals on healthcare, when Republicans do actually do some thinking on it, as Romney to his credit did, they end up producing something not a million miles from the present legislation

    You are sadly out of date. There was a major GOP proposal last year, and another last month. But nothing will move now until after the election as the Dems have both the filibuster in the Senate and the veto at the WH.

    http://blogs.wsj.com/washwire/2015/02/05/3-republicans-revise-proposal-for-obamacare-alternative/
  • Danny565 said:

    DavidL said:

    I very much doubt that this letter will have any direct impact, it will look like a bunch of fat cats who support the Tories, quelle surprise.

    But the anti business narrative of Labour is a throw back to the early 80s or even the 70s. Blair would never have allowed such a narrative to become so entrenched. I expect the Tory's already strong lead on the economy to improve with the media carrying such stories. Will this make a difference? It just might.

    Most people are no fans of big business
    BUT
    They employ a lot of people:

    If in doubt
    Hold tight to Nurse.

    Being anti business may be "popular" on one level, we all like to see the Boss fall on his face.
    But we all need a job to pay the bills so our feelings will be tempered by reality.
    Absolutely, if people truly believed that Labour's policies would result in job losses, it would be negative on the party.

    But the question is whether the public believes these people are being sincere when they say Labour will cause job losses, or whether they think it's just about how much they line their own pockets.
    The "public" are also many of the same people who will get in a car or on a train or bus and will go to work tomorrow morning to work for a large company. They will interact with paying customers and will be very aware if business slows down and will also very acutely remember the very dark days of 08/09

    We may not love the big company we work for, we may not have any love of the Boss,
    But
    We need the pay cheque at the end of the month and whatever our other priorities maybe -the pay cheque-and security of it REALLY does matter.

    Electing a Govt that seriously threatens that-perceived or real, would be "brave"
  • that' s one way to spin it.... how many of the 103 are city-boys?

    Labour Press Team‏@labourpress·3 mins3 minutes ago
    No one will be surprised that some business people support the Tories. That's nothing new...

    Labour Press Team‏@labourpress·2 mins2 minutes ago
    ...The recovery may have reached big firms in the City but it hasn't reached homes of working people. Labour's job is to stand up for them
  • FlightpathFlightpath Posts: 4,012
    kle4 said:

    This letter from the business leaders will have quite an impact, a negative one.

    No it won't. Labour cannot have it both ways on this I feel; if its something everyone already knows to be true - that is, rich businessmen on the whole are more likely to support the Tories - as they will be arguing, then I cannot see it having much of an impact at all, as it is priced in.
    HYUFD said:

    kle4 Of course in the fifties interviewers treated senior politicians almost like demi-gods

    Is that true or a joke? I cannot be sure.
    There were no interviews in the '50s were there? No televisions either.
    'Tell me your worshipful prime ministership, why did you embark on the failed invasion of the Suez Canal?'
    Anyone remember that one?
    Ah, come back Macdonald Hobley, Fyfe Robertson... Norman Wisdom. There is nothing for it Mr Grimsdale, I think I'm going to have to move to Kent
  • TheWatcherTheWatcher Posts: 5,262

    The next 007 should be a WOMAN, says Ed Miliband

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3020146/The-007-WOMAN-says-Ed-Miliband-tips-former-Bond-girl-Rosamund-Pike-iconic-role.html

    After this, banning zero hours contracts and generally abusing business seems perfectly rational.

    Is that going to be enshrined in law by a Miliband government?
  • philiphphiliph Posts: 4,704
    GIN1138 said:

    philiph said:

    You have to admit 36 is a good score for Labour.

    How many of these 36% will turn out for Ed on the day though?

    85% to 90%? (=31% to 32%)
  • Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091

    Danny565 said:

    DavidL said:

    I very much doubt that this letter will have any direct impact, it will look like a bunch of fat cats who support the Tories, quelle surprise.

    But the anti business narrative of Labour is a throw back to the early 80s or even the 70s. Blair would never have allowed such a narrative to become so entrenched. I expect the Tory's already strong lead on the economy to improve with the media carrying such stories. Will this make a difference? It just might.

    Most people are no fans of big business
    BUT
    They employ a lot of people:

    If in doubt
    Hold tight to Nurse.

    Being anti business may be "popular" on one level, we all like to see the Boss fall on his face.
    But we all need a job to pay the bills so our feelings will be tempered by reality.
    Absolutely, if people truly believed that Labour's policies would result in job losses, it would be negative on the party.

    But the question is whether the public believes these people are being sincere when they say Labour will cause job losses, or whether they think it's just about how much they line their own pockets.
    The "public" are also many of the same people who will get in a car or on a train or bus and will go to work tomorrow morning to work for a large company. They will interact with paying customers and will be very aware if business slows down and will also very acutely remember the very dark days of 08/09

    We may not love the big company we work for, we may not have any love of the Boss,
    But
    We need the pay cheque at the end of the month and whatever our other priorities maybe -the pay cheque-and security of it REALLY does matter.

    Electing a Govt that seriously threatens that-perceived or real, would be "brave"
    Again, I'm not disputing this. The question is whether the public believes that Labour's policies would actually result in the consequences you describe, or if in fact it would just result in the CEO having to cut down from 4 to 3 holidays a year.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,533

    that' s one way to spin it.... how many of the 103 are city-boys?

    Labour Press Team‏@labourpress·3 mins3 minutes ago
    No one will be surprised that some business people support the Tories. That's nothing new...

    Labour Press Team‏@labourpress·2 mins2 minutes ago
    ...The recovery may have reached big firms in the City but it hasn't reached homes of working people. Labour's job is to stand up for them

    It seems people are starting to count up a good number who were Labour supporters and not just city wide boys.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,533
    edited March 2015

    The next 007 should be a WOMAN, says Ed Miliband

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3020146/The-007-WOMAN-says-Ed-Miliband-tips-former-Bond-girl-Rosamund-Pike-iconic-role.html

    After this, banning zero hours contracts and generally abusing business seems perfectly rational.

    Is that going to be enshrined in law by a Miliband government?
    Don't give him and Harman any ideas...Although, he will probably want a judge led inquiry first into why Bond has been a white man for so many years. Must be racism and sexism going on.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,958
    edited March 2015
    Flightpath Of course in the fifties it was simple, so you did not have to think if you were working class you voted Labour no question, if you were middle class you voted Tory no question (with the odd intellectual voting Liberal) and the Tories and Labour won over 90% of the vote between them. Now if you are working class you could vote Labour, UKIP, BNP or SNP in Scotland, if you are middle class you can vote Tory, Labour, LD, Green or SNP and Labour and the Tories win barely 70% between them on a good day
  • Scrapheap_as_wasScrapheap_as_was Posts: 10,069
    edited March 2015
    What is he up to?? Might tomorrow's polls be more encouraging for the blues.... is that the hint? but then again he's stepping down so is it cos' he's not so bothered the blues aren't recovering...

    Lord Ashcroft‏@LordAshcroft·now17 seconds ago
    I shall sleep soundly tonight....
  • QuincelQuincel Posts: 4,042

    What is he up to??

    Lord Ashcroft‏@LordAshcroft·now17 seconds ago
    I shall sleep soundly tonight....

    Probably just his 8 marginals being released tomorrow. The polls roll on...
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    Well, at least the dividing lines are clear

    Labour will stand up for you against big business and vested interests

    or

    Labour don't understand business and will destroy the recovery out of ignorance, spite and hatred of success

    take your pick
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,533
    edited March 2015

    What is he up to?? Might tomorrow's polls be more encouraging for the blues.... is that the hint? but then again he's stepping down so is it cos' he's not so bothered the blues aren't recovering...

    Lord Ashcroft‏@LordAshcroft·now17 seconds ago
    I shall sleep soundly tonight....

    Something is going on...Maybe he has done some cracking deals in Belize :-)
  • Danny565 said:

    Danny565 said:

    DavidL said:

    I very much doubt that this letter will have any direct impact, it will look like a bunch of fat cats who support the Tories, quelle surprise.

    But the anti business narrative of Labour is a throw back to the early 80s or even the 70s. Blair would never have allowed such a narrative to become so entrenched. I expect the Tory's already strong lead on the economy to improve with the media carrying such stories. Will this make a difference? It just might.

    Most people are no fans of big business
    BUT
    They employ a lot of people:

    If in doubt
    Hold tight to Nurse.

    Being anti business may be "popular" on one level, we all like to see the Boss fall on his face.
    But we all need a job to pay the bills so our feelings will be tempered by reality.
    Absolutely, if people truly believed that Labour's policies would result in job losses, it would be negative on the party.

    But the question is whether the public believes these people are being sincere when they say Labour will cause job losses, or whether they think it's just about how much they line their own pockets.
    The "public" are also many of the same people who will get in a car or on a train or bus and will go to work tomorrow morning to work for a large company. They will interact with paying customers and will be very aware if business slows down and will also very acutely remember the very dark days of 08/09

    We may not love the big company we work for, we may not have any love of the Boss,
    But
    We need the pay cheque at the end of the month and whatever our other priorities maybe -the pay cheque-and security of it REALLY does matter.

    Electing a Govt that seriously threatens that-perceived or real, would be "brave"
    Again, I'm not disputing this. The question is whether the public believes that Labour's policies would actually result in the consequences you describe, or if in fact it would just result in the CEO having to cut down from 4 to 3 holidays a year.
    The CEO gets a bonus after the company makes a profit.
    The company makes a profit after all suppliers and staff are paid.

    You say you have never run a business-well without being rude some of your comments show a lack of understanding of how business works-I loath many business leaders-BUT- i am married with 2 kids - I need a job- i am genuinely worried about Labours attitude to business
    and the effect this might have on my job.

    OH and before we all get into a Public V Private sector spat-my wife is a nurse and earns more per hour than I do-so I have a pretty good idea of both sides of the public/private argument.
  • SimonStClareSimonStClare Posts: 7,976

    What is he up to?? Might tomorrow's polls be more encouraging for the blues.... is that the hint? but then again he's stepping down so is it cos' he's not so bothered the blues aren't recovering...

    Lord Ashcroft‏@LordAshcroft·now17 seconds ago
    I shall sleep soundly tonight....

    Perhaps he's just had Chateau Ashcroft double-glazed? :)
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,958
    Geoff M Exactly, see Eden clip earlier
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453

    You say you have never run a business-well without being rude some of your comments show a lack of understanding of how business works-I loath many business leaders-BUT- i am married with 2 kids - I need a job- i am genuinely worried about Labours attitude to business and the effect this might have on my job.

    The Labour argument has more than whiff of "We will join you on the picket lines at British Leyland" about it, with the same consequences.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,415
    Ed Miliband's path of destruction:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aew6dJFrm0s
  • Scott_P said:

    Well, at least the dividing lines are clear

    Labour will stand up for you against big business and vested interests

    or

    Labour don't understand business and will destroy the recovery out of ignorance, spite and hatred of success

    take your pick

    True!

    But many of us need "protecting" from one large company whilst we work for another.

    This is a multi -tiered argument.

    I don't think labour will be the worst ever Govt. for business-but it certainly wont be a good one either.

    I lost my job at the end of 2011 and spent a year struggling to get another one-I may not like big business but I and millions of others need the monthly pay cheque so whilst on one level we may sympathise with with some of labour's rhetoric on another level pragmatism kicks in and we are very concerned.


  • MTimTMTimT Posts: 7,034
    Pulpstar said:

    Ed Miliband's path of destruction:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aew6dJFrm0s

    Where on earth did you find that? Hilarious
  • Ave_itAve_it Posts: 2,411
    GN all!

    Back on it tomorrow!!

    37 days to CON overall majority!!!
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,533
    What is that I here...clacking of keyboards as the Labour PR team google the hell out of every one of the names on that list for stories about how workers at their companies have been treated badly, how the corporate structure is tax efficient, etc.
  • TheWatcherTheWatcher Posts: 5,262

    The next 007 should be a WOMAN, says Ed Miliband

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3020146/The-007-WOMAN-says-Ed-Miliband-tips-former-Bond-girl-Rosamund-Pike-iconic-role.html

    After this, banning zero hours contracts and generally abusing business seems perfectly rational.

    Is that going to be enshrined in law by a Miliband government?
    Don't give him and Harman any ideas...Although, he will probably want a judge led inquiry first into why Bond has been a white man for so many years. Must be racism and sexism going on.
    'What was that, you're telling us who should be in our film?' Shooting moves in the blink of an eye to studio space in Eastern Europe, and Post to Canada.
  • Scott_P said:

    You say you have never run a business-well without being rude some of your comments show a lack of understanding of how business works-I loath many business leaders-BUT- i am married with 2 kids - I need a job- i am genuinely worried about Labours attitude to business and the effect this might have on my job.

    The Labour argument has more than whiff of "We will join you on the picket lines at British Leyland" about it, with the same consequences.
    Precisely why it doesn't resonate with as many people as Ed thinks it does.
  • nigel4englandnigel4england Posts: 4,800

    What is he up to?? Might tomorrow's polls be more encouraging for the blues.... is that the hint? but then again he's stepping down so is it cos' he's not so bothered the blues aren't recovering...

    Lord Ashcroft‏@LordAshcroft·now17 seconds ago
    I shall sleep soundly tonight....

    Who cares? His polls are a joke and anyone with money riding on them needs their heads tested, and he has a bigger ego that TSE.
  • chestnutchestnut Posts: 7,341
    philiph said:

    You have to admit 36 is a good score for Labour.

    Indeed it is.

    Solace can be drawn from their tendency to underpoll at real elections (and Tories to overpoll), the clear Labour infiltration on YG's panel that the Milibounce revealed on Sunday and the fact that their core vote seems to be the same demographics that usually stay at home.

    Tory win by 4-5 on May 7 still seems probable.

  • compouter2compouter2 Posts: 2,371

    What is that I here...clacking of keyboards as the Labour PR team google the hell out of every one of the names on that list for stories about how workers at their companies have been treated badly, how the corporate structure is tax efficient, etc.

    The more you line up the easier the target is.
  • EPGEPG Posts: 6,653

    What is that I here...clacking of keyboards as the Labour PR team google the hell out of every one of the names on that list for stories about how workers at their companies have been treated badly, how the corporate structure is tax efficient, etc.

    Considering that yesterday this website was suddenly and briefly incensed by the financial activities of the wife of a Labour endorser, I think it unlikely that this comment is untrue.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,821
    The Conservatives are a lot better organised than they were in 2010, that's for sure.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,415
    edited March 2015
    (UKIP + LD + Green + SNP + PC + DUP + SDLP + Sinn Fein) vote share could be less than the lower of Con & Lab
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @OwenJones84: The British people have to decide: who runs their country? A shameless, mean, greedy, grasping booming rich? Or the ordinary voters
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    Cape Verde actually in FIFA top 40 rankings

    Wales 37
    Cape Verde 38
    Scotland 39
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,533

    The Conservatives are a lot better organised than they were in 2010, that's for sure.

    You don't think they fired this rocket too soon?
  • Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    Baxter says that on tonight's YouGov, the Lib Dems would be reduced to just 6 seats(!!!)
  • Tim_BTim_B Posts: 7,669
    Scott_P said:

    @OwenJones84: The British people have to decide: who runs their country? A shameless, mean, greedy, grasping booming rich? Or the ordinary voters

    Don't you know any 'ordinary people' (whatever that means) who are shameless, mean, greedy, grasping booming?
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    edited March 2015

    You don't think they fired this rocket too soon?

    Depends what else is in the arsenal. If this was it, then probably. If this was merely the opening salvo...

    EDIT. I wonder if the timing was influenced by Labour's very public business front page 'fracas' ?
  • chestnutchestnut Posts: 7,341
    edited March 2015
    EPG said:

    Considering that yesterday this website was suddenly and briefly incensed by the financial activities of the wife of a Labour endorser,.

    It's the hypocrisy of the holier than thou that follows tax which is the issue,

    The tax preachers are frauds.

    How many tax 'efficient' or 'abusive' encounters does it take for it to register?
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,415
    Just took some of the 8-11 on SNP in Midlothian, then noted that they lost a by-election there in November !

    Hills cut it to 4-6 straight after at any rate.

    75% probability according to Election Forecast which has SNP on a Conservative 37 seats at any rate.

    DYOR...
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,533
    edited March 2015
    I see Nigeria have voted in a charming fellow...I am sure Boko Haram are really worried about this guy.

    http://www.vanguardngr.com/2014/12/insurgency-buharis-call-full-sharia/
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,415
    Danny565 said:

    Baxter says that on tonight's YouGov, the Lib Dems would be reduced to just 6 seats(!!!)

    Best of luck using Baxter !
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @BethRigby: Ed Miliband to clamp down on zero-hours contracts > CBI slams policy http://t.co/CEdpWDdyLe #FT
  • jascowjascow Posts: 18
    edited March 2015
    @Richard_Nabavi I thought the they had a very good start in 2010 with the Jobs Tax stuff, but it soon descended into incoherence, reaching a low point with that ridiculously titled manifesto. Shame.

    Have a feeling that will not be the case this time around!
  • Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    Pulpstar said:

    Danny565 said:

    Baxter says that on tonight's YouGov, the Lib Dems would be reduced to just 6 seats(!!!)

    Best of luck using Baxter !
    On second look it does look weird. They've awarded Ross Skye & Lochaber to "Other" [not the SNP] o_O
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    edited March 2015
    Pulpstar said:

    Just took some of the 8-11 on SNP in Midlothian, then noted that they lost a by-election there in November !

    Hills cut it to 4-6 straight after at any rate.

    75% probability according to Election Forecast which has SNP on a Conservative 37 seats at any rate.

    DYOR...

    According to Jackie Doyle Price, Election forecast have Ukip a 2% in Thurrock... She's trolling Ukip activists with it... #torytrolls
  • dugarbandierdugarbandier Posts: 2,596

    I see Nigeria have voted in a charming fellow...I am sure Boko Haram are really worried about this guy.

    http://www.vanguardngr.com/2014/12/insurgency-buharis-call-full-sharia/

    he couldn't really be less effective against them than the previous fellow?
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,415
    isam said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Just took some of the 8-11 on SNP in Midlothian, then noted that they lost a by-election there in November !

    Hills cut it to 4-6 straight after at any rate.

    75% probability according to Election Forecast which has SNP on a Conservative 37 seats at any rate.

    DYOR...

    According to Jackie Doyle Price, Election forecast have Ukip a 2% in Thurrock... She's trolling Ukip activists with it... #torytrolls
    Probably a Labour gain which loses me about 31 pence I think.
  • old_labourold_labour Posts: 3,238
    edited March 2015
    Tory shill, Tidjane Thiam, lambasted by the Daily Mail for greed by trousering £11.8 million from Prudential while offering crap returns to pensioners.

    Dr Ros Altmann, a leading pensions expert and a government adviser accused Prudential of ‘short-changing’ savers who took out annuities by offering poor rates.

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3020497/Men-Pru-share-huge-49m-payout-Pensions-firm-accused-greed-details-perks-senior-executives-revealed-days-shake-up.html
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @faisalislam: In the response on my timeline to Conservative biz leader letter, and Labour zero hours crackdown, I'm seeing a rather divided Britain.

    @alstewitn: The polarised response to the business leader's letter to @Telegraph is stark.
  • Tim_BTim_B Posts: 7,669
    Regarding the Miliband comments about the next Bond being a woman, despite the character being male in all the books -

    Following this insane line of thought to its absurd nonsensical conclusion, if the details of the book don't matter, the next biblical movie could feature Helen Antipas, Peggy Pilot washing her hands, and Jane the Baptist.

    Or from 221B Baker Street, we could have Helen Holmes and Dr Jane Watson, with Mr Hudson as their butler.

    What an onanist! - and he wants to run the country!
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,415
    Going through Election forecast 40 Lab incumbent seats (Excl Falkirk) as per the Comres reveals

    Electionforecast

    Con
    14.0
    Lab
    36.1
    LD
    5.5
    SNP
    39.6
  • MTimTMTimT Posts: 7,034
    Tim_B said:

    Regarding the Miliband comments about the next Bond being a woman, despite the character being male in all the books -

    Following this insane line of thought to its absurd nonsensical conclusion, if the details of the book don't matter, the next biblical movie could feature Helen Antipas, Peggy Pilot washing her hands, and Jane the Baptist.

    Or from 221B Baker Street, we could have Helen Holmes and Dr Jane Watson, with Mr Hudson as their butler.

    What an onanist! - and he wants to run the country!

    Well, we already have Lucy Liu as Watson in Elementary ...
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,415
    If Falkirk is included it is 35.8-40.0
  • Tim_BTim_B Posts: 7,669
    edited March 2015
    MTimT said:

    Tim_B said:

    Regarding the Miliband comments about the next Bond being a woman, despite the character being male in all the books -

    Following this insane line of thought to its absurd nonsensical conclusion, if the details of the book don't matter, the next biblical movie could feature Helen Antipas, Peggy Pilot washing her hands, and Jane the Baptist.

    Or from 221B Baker Street, we could have Helen Holmes and Dr Jane Watson, with Mr Hudson as their butler.

    What an onanist! - and he wants to run the country!

    Well, we already have Lucy Liu as Watson in Elementary ...
    Wow, I'm impressed - I never dreamed Ed had that kind of power. :)

    Maybe David M helped stateside......
  • DairDair Posts: 6,108
    Pulpstar said:

    Going through Election forecast 40 Lab incumbent seats (Excl Falkirk) as per the Comres reveals

    Electionforecast

    Con
    14.0
    Lab
    36.1
    LD
    5.5
    SNP
    39.6

    So basically this poll says the SNP is doing better than whatever methodology Election Forecast is applying?
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,708
    Tim_B said:

    Regarding the Miliband comments about the next Bond being a woman, despite the character being male in all the books -

    Following this insane line of thought to its absurd nonsensical conclusion, if the details of the book don't matter, the next biblical movie could feature Helen Antipas, Peggy Pilot washing her hands, and Jane the Baptist.

    Or from 221B Baker Street, we could have Helen Holmes and Dr Jane Watson, with Mr Hudson as their butler.

    What an onanist! - and he wants to run the country!

    Are the Bond films based on books? I thought they were individually scripted. Presumably you'd write or adapt the script knowing that you planned to have a woman be Bond.

    PS This is an awesome example of how you do politics when you don't have that much substantive disgreement over policy. Get both sides riled up over hypothetical film casting.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,415
    Dair said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Going through Election forecast 40 Lab incumbent seats (Excl Falkirk) as per the Comres reveals

    Electionforecast

    Con
    14.0
    Lab
    36.1
    LD
    5.5
    SNP
    39.6

    So basically this poll says the SNP is doing better than whatever methodology Election Forecast is applying?
    That's the conclusion, yes.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,415
    Would like to see Fisher and Curtice seat by seat breakdown tbh.
  • Tim_BTim_B Posts: 7,669
    Just when the whole BBC/Clarkson imbroglio couldn't get any worse or mishandled, it turns out that Clarkson is back on the world live tour of Top Gear, which has now been renamed "Clarkson, Hammond and May Live", with all the Top Gear branding stripped off.

    I doubt it'll fool anyone.

    http://www.bbc.com/news/entertainment-arts-32137424
  • Moses_Moses_ Posts: 4,865
    edited April 2015
    Are the Bond films based on books? I thought they were individually scripted. Presumably you'd write or adapt the script knowing that you planned to have a woman be Bond.

    PS This is an awesome example of how you do politics when you don't have that much substantive disgreement over policy. Get both sides riled up over hypothetical film casting.

    Given the name is errr... "james" I would deduce from that, without the need to pull out my magnifying glass that it is a man....But hey what the feck do I Know?

    Janine or Janice Bond just doesn't quite have the same gravitas & edge. Besides which given the number of women Bond beds she would need to be playing " for the other side" if you get the drift.

    As for being a Bond boy? .. Not going there and besides which where on earth is the baddie stroking a pussy going to fit into all of this.
  • Tim_BTim_B Posts: 7,669

    Tim_B said:

    Regarding the Miliband comments about the next Bond being a woman, despite the character being male in all the books -

    Following this insane line of thought to its absurd nonsensical conclusion, if the details of the book don't matter, the next biblical movie could feature Helen Antipas, Peggy Pilot washing her hands, and Jane the Baptist.

    Or from 221B Baker Street, we could have Helen Holmes and Dr Jane Watson, with Mr Hudson as their butler.

    What an onanist! - and he wants to run the country!

    Are the Bond films based on books? I thought they were individually scripted. Presumably you'd write or adapt the script knowing that you planned to have a woman be Bond.

    PS This is an awesome example of how you do politics when you don't have that much substantive disgreement over policy. Get both sides riled up over hypothetical film casting.
    They were originally. With the success of Goldfinger and Thunderball, from 'You Only Live Twice' on-wards, they used just the title and had an original script, and the subsequent movies got further and further away from Fleming's originals to the silly invisible car in the last Brosnan movie. They ran out of book titles so used Fleming short story titles, and when that ran out they even used the Bond family motto as a title.

    But the character of Bond has been kept fairly close to the original.
  • DairDair Posts: 6,108
    edited April 2015
    The next bond should totally break the mold, completely redefine the genre and make a complete change to what people would expect.

    So. Adam Woodyatt.

    The greatest 30 minutes of television in the history of the world

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tNGK9ni4aSY
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,415
    edited April 2015
    The Comres also indicates the SNP vote is more efficient than that applied by electionforecast model too:

    Expected leads
    Maj < 30%; 9.0
    30 - 40; 3.2
    40+: -4.5

    Actual:

    +8
    +0
    +6


    All this is with a fair weighting wind on the SNP too...
  • Tim_BTim_B Posts: 7,669
    edited April 2015
    Dair said:

    The next bond should totally break the mold, completely redefine the genre and make a complete change to what people would expect.

    So. Adam Woodyatt.

    They did that with the remake of Casino Royale.

    It was bad enough that the new Bond is blonde :smile:
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,415
    edited April 2015
    If I had to bet on SLAB anywhere it'd probably be Dunfermline West Fife and Glasgow NE tbh.
    But doesn't tempt me.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,533
    Tim_B said:

    Just when the whole BBC/Clarkson imbroglio couldn't get any worse or mishandled, it turns out that Clarkson is back on the world live tour of Top Gear, which has now been renamed "Clarkson, Hammond and May Live", with all the Top Gear branding stripped off.

    I doubt it'll fool anyone.

    http://www.bbc.com/news/entertainment-arts-32137424

    A finger of fudge is just enough....to get you through until you get a new presenter...
  • Tim_BTim_B Posts: 7,669

    Tim_B said:

    Just when the whole BBC/Clarkson imbroglio couldn't get any worse or mishandled, it turns out that Clarkson is back on the world live tour of Top Gear, which has now been renamed "Clarkson, Hammond and May Live", with all the Top Gear branding stripped off.

    I doubt it'll fool anyone.

    http://www.bbc.com/news/entertainment-arts-32137424

    A finger of fudge is just enough....to get you through until you get a new presenter...
    I'm already through the fudge, finished the chocolate and am on to peanut butter and jelly sandwiches.

    By the way, try putting peanut butter on one side of a hamburger bun before you eat the burger. Yum. It's a Southern thing. Not Top Gear related at all....
  • Tim_BTim_B Posts: 7,669
    Difficult times for President Obama from recent polls -

    A Quinnipiac poll asked - "Who do you trust more to make decisions that are good for the country?"

    Obama - 42%
    GOP in Congress - 47%
    Don't know - 11%

    A Fox News poll asked - "Do you think "honest" describes President Obama, or not?"

    Yes - 43%
    No - 54%
    Don't know - 3%
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,958
    FU Burani is an ex general and no softie, Nigeria is a strongly Muslim nation
  • Tim_BTim_B Posts: 7,669
    HYUFD said:

    FU Burani is an ex general and no softie, Nigeria is a strongly Muslim nation

    Loser Goodluck Jonathan is a Christian, is he not?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,958
    Considering Boko Haram tried to assassinate Buhari there is little love lost between them and he has made clear his determination to defeat them
  • Tim_BTim_B Posts: 7,669
    HYUFD said:

    Considering Boko Haram tried to assassinate Buhari there is little love lost between them and he has made clear his determination to defeat them

    This is a step in the right direction - another example of my enemy's enemy is, well, what?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,958
    edited April 2015
    TimB Maybe, but Jonathan has proved pretty hopeless at tackling Boko Haram, Buhari has a mandate, let him get on with it
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,958
    As for the Obama polls, he is a lameduck president now anyway, on the Democratic side the only polls that matter are those for Hillary
  • Tim_BTim_B Posts: 7,669
    HYUFD said:

    As for the Obama polls, he is a lameduck president now anyway, on the Democratic side the only polls that matter are those for Hillary

    Unfortunately he is more determined than ever to achieve his ideological agenda by doing an end run on Congress and ignore the will of the people.

    He doesn't care about polls or anything other than achieving his agenda.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    Tim_B said:

    Difficult times for President Obama from recent polls -

    A Quinnipiac poll asked - "Who do you trust more to make decisions that are good for the country?"

    Obama - 42%
    GOP in Congress - 47%
    Don't know - 11%

    A Fox News poll asked - "Do you think "honest" describes President Obama, or not?"

    Yes - 43%
    No - 54%
    Don't know - 3%

    Is that a poll among Fox News viewers? Or a nationally representative poll conducted for Fox News? More than half way through his second term, I doubt he'll be too disappointed with 43% still viewing him as honest! What were the comparable Bush figures?
  • Tim_BTim_B Posts: 7,669
    HYUFD said:

    As for the Obama polls, he is a lameduck president now anyway, on the Democratic side the only polls that matter are those for Hillary

    There are signs that the email scandal is starting to affect her numbers, but there is no sign of anyone planning to stop her coronation as the candidate.

    The calculation was made that the info in the emails was more damaging than the destruction of them, which is probably true.

    The only intangible is whether 'Clinton Fatigue' will set in, and to what extent.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,958
    edited April 2015
    Tim B Don't most presidents in their final term when they want a legacy and are not up for re-election again

    As for Hillary she still leads the GOP top tier overall, the email saga has made little impact on the average voter, it will be a tight battle but I remain of the view she will narrowly win in the end, night
  • MTimTMTimT Posts: 7,034
    HYUFD said:

    FU Burani is an ex general and no softie, Nigeria is a strongly Muslim nation

    Nigeria is roughly 50/50 Christian/Muslim - different sources placing either the Christians or the Muslims slightly in the majority. Strongly Muslim? If so, strongly Christian too.

    Generally speaking, the south/coast is Christian, the north and inland is Muslim.
  • Tim_BTim_B Posts: 7,669
    HYUFD said:

    Tim B Don't most presidents in their final term when they want a legacy and are not up for re-election again

    The problem for Obama is that his signature policies at home - TARP, Obamacare, EPA policies to destroy coal using electric utilities, etc., not to mention he is officially the most lying president since FDR and so labelled by liberal media outlets like the NY Times and Washington Post, are all unpopular.

    His foreign policy has been an unmitigated disaster.

    His ideology and world view is way, way left and outside the US mainstream.

    It is almost like there are two Democratic Parties - one which exists to re-elect him even though he is aloof and out of touch with the American people; the other party suffers record shellackings in both Obama mid-term elections when he is not on the ballot.

    The senior Iranian press figure covering the Iran nuke agreement defected last week. He was also the campaign manager for the current Iranian president, whose name I will not attempt to spell. So he is a connected guy. His first comments after this were that he felt that the US was trying to sell the Iranian position to the other western nations negotiating.

    Obama is desperate - DESPERATE - to get a deal so he has some legacy. He is also a terrible negotiator. That's not a recipe for a good deal.

  • MTimTMTimT Posts: 7,034
    HYUFD said:

    As for the Obama polls, he is a lameduck president now anyway, on the Democratic side the only polls that matter are those for Hillary

    Not entirely true. All Democratic candidates across the ticket will be running into Obama headwinds at the election if he and his policies remain unpopular come 2016.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,958
    TimT Nigeria is 50.4% Muslim, but regardless Buhari can't do worse than Jonathan at tackling Boko Haram
  • Tim_BTim_B Posts: 7,669
    HYUFD said:

    TimT Nigeria is 50.4% Muslim, but regardless Buhari can't do worse than Jonathan at tackling Boko Haram

    That's certainly true.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,958
    edited April 2015
    TimB Consider the mess his predecessor left him and he has killed Bin Laden

    His ideology is so far outside the mainstream he won more than 50% of the US vote twice, hmmm. US presidents always do badly in mid terms, Reagan did, Clinton did, Dubya did in 2006, what's new

    On Iran at least he is trying to negotiate, especially when Iran are now fighting ISIS, the GOP seem to want to fight yet more wars on yet more fronts

  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,958
    TimT Not necessarily, McCain was actually neck and neck with Obama after the GOP convention in 2008 before Lehmans went bust despite George W's record low unpopularity
  • Tim_BTim_B Posts: 7,669
    HYUFD said:

    TimB Consider the mess his predecessor left him and he has killed Bin Laden

    His ideology is so far outside the mainstream he won more than 50% of the US vote twice, hmmm. US presidents always do badly in mid terms, Reagan did, Clinton did, Dubya did in 2006, what's new

    On Iran at least he is trying to negotiate, especially when Iran are now fighting ISIS, the GOP seem to want to fight yet more wars on yet more fronts

    The GOP is busy shooting themselves in the foot in Indiana at present.

    The Democratic party didn't just do badly in midterms - they suffered record defeats in both - 2010 they suffered the biggest mid-term loss in over 80 years.

    Obama is an outlier - even arch liberal Dan Rather said he was uncomfortable and dismayed at the extent the mainstream media had gone to support and give him incredibly favorable and uncritical coverage. It will be a long time before we see another candidacy like his. No achievements, no experience, never staying in one place long enough, nothing achieved in the US Senate (except to rail against increasing the government debt limit) other than voting 'present' most of the time. His policies are unpopular - Obamacare only passed because he lied repeatedly to the American people - yet he is reelected. It was a unique situation. Yes he was elected twice, but he had no coat tails at all.

    His case is unique.

    On Iran, no deal is better than a bad deal.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,958
    edited April 2015
    Regardless the usual pattern in the US is for Congress and the presidency to be controlled by different parties, Obama is no exception. Obama is not that unique either, Clinton in 1996, Nixon in 1972, IKE in 1956 all reelected with no coattails. On Iran we shall see, but Iran needs to be engaged with if the Middle East is not to spiral yet further out of control
    Of course the fact Buhari is the clear choice of the Nigerian people too now gives him a clear mandate to defeat Boko Haram, anyway off to sleep
  • MTimTMTimT Posts: 7,034
    HYUFD said:

    TimT Nigeria is 50.4% Muslim, but regardless Buhari can't do worse than Jonathan at tackling Boko Haram

    On another estimate, the latest I could find, it is 50.8% Christian and 47.9% Muslim. But one cannot trust censuses as they are highly political. The best anyone can say is that it is roughly 50/50.

    "Nigeria is nearly equally divided between Christianity and Islam. The majority of Nigerian Muslims are Sunni and are concentrated in the northern area of the country, while Christians dominate in the Middle Belt and south.

    "According to a 2009 Pew survey 50.4% of Nigeria's population were Muslims.[11] A later Pew study in 2011 estimated that Christians now form the majority of the nation, comprising 50.8% of the population, while Muslims comprised 47.9%."
  • MTimTMTimT Posts: 7,034
    HYUFD said:

    TimT Not necessarily, McCain was actually neck and neck with Obama after the GOP convention in 2008 before Lehmans went bust despite George W's record low unpopularity

    But McCain was at that stage a maverick within the GOP, and successfully presented himself as 'not Bush'. Hillary will not be able to do that, given that she served in the Obama Administration.
  • Tim_BTim_B Posts: 7,669
    HYUFD said:

    TimB Consider the mess his predecessor left him and he has killed Bin Laden

    His ideology is so far outside the mainstream he won more than 50% of the US vote twice, hmmm. US presidents always do badly in mid terms, Reagan did, Clinton did, Dubya did in 2006, what's new

    On Iran at least he is trying to negotiate, especially when Iran are now fighting ISIS, the GOP seem to want to fight yet more wars on yet more fronts

    Forgot to mention the mess he inherited - and it was a big mess. But when the country wanted the economy turned around, economic growth, and new jobs created, he spent all his political capital on ramming through Obamacare, a job killer and economic damper that put millions into part-time (less than 30 hours) work.It was unpopular then, remains so now, and was passed on repeated lies.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,958
    edited April 2015
    TimT Wrong, McCain backed Bush to the hilt on Iraq, Hillary has criticised Obama's Syria policy and both McCain and Hillary had fought against the president in earlier primaries.
    TimB The US economy of course is now growing and unemployment is falling, as for Obamacare he was reelected after that was passed

    On Nigeria the exact composition of religions is largely irrelevant, the task in hand is to defeat Boko Haram, for which he has been elected by the Nigerian electorate, so let him get on with it
  • Tim_BTim_B Posts: 7,669
    edited April 2015
    HYUFD said:

    TimT Wrong, McCain backed Bush to the hilt on Iraq, Hillary has criticised Obama's Syria policy and both McCain and Hillary had fought against the president in earlier primaries.
    The US economy of course is now growing and unemployment is falling, as for Obamacare he was reelected after that was passed

    On Nigeria the exact composition of religions is largely irrelevant, the task in hand is to defeat Boko Haram, for which he has been elected by the Nigerian electorate, so let him get on with it

    Unemployment falling? The headline rate is, yes. The Labor Participation Rate - the number of Americans of working age in employment - is at its lowest level in over 30 years, at 62.8% in February. More than 1 in 3 of Americans of working age is unemployed.

    You are perfectly entitled to your own opinion, but not your own facts.

    Obama is a unique case, and a unique set of circumstances. If you don't live here you didn't experience it. His approval rating was bad, he was not trusted by the voters, his policies were unpopular, yet he got reelected. That's unique
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