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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Lord Ashcroft becomes the third pollster in a row not to su
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Lord Ashcroft becomes the third pollster in a row not to support the YouGov 4% LAB lead poll
There’ve been three published polls since the Sunday Times YouGov LAB 4% lead poll. ComRes had 4% CON lead last night, Populus had the parties level pegging this morning and now Lord Ashcroft has a 2% CON lead.
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I just hope the media aren't as ridiculous as 2010 when they over-egged the polls (especially YouGov).
Hell no! I mean Yes!
Anyone but Labour.
Although I'm more disappointed about the wish involving Jennifer Morrison and Olivia Wilde, to be honest.
Cup 25% full not 3/4 empty
Having said that I regard the polls in general as completely useless and if I didn't know better I would say they are sponsored by the bookmakers as a way to sucker people into stupid bets.
Ashcroft
Lord Ashcroft commissions a regular weekly poll, carried out by other polling companies but on a “white label” basis. The methods are essentially those Populus used to use for their telephone polls, rather than the online methods Populus now use for their own regular polling. Ashcroft polls are weighted by standard demographics and by past vote, adjusted for false recall.
Ashcroft’s voting intention question has included UKIP in the main prompt since 2015. People who say they don’t know how they will vote are reallocated based on how they say they voted at the previous election, but at a different ratio to ICM (Ashcroft weights Conservatives and Labour down to 50%, Lib Dems down to 30%, others I think are ignored). In terms of likelihood to vote, Ashcroft weights people according to how likely they say they are to vote in similar way to ICM.
http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/archives/9281
Just wondering when that 10k 11/2 bet was put on ... Before or after this poll release.
Com Res London Poll
North London: Con 40 Lab 38
South London: Lab 42 Con 38
West London: Lab 41 Con 37
East London: Lab 54 Con 24
Central: Lab 48 Con 36
White: Con 40 Lab 31
Non White: Lab 68 Con 21
Home status
Home owner: Con 46 Lab 34
Rent (LA): Lab 65, UKIP 16 Con 11
Rent (Private): Lab 68, Con 17
The 55+ break clearly for Con, the under 45s for lab, the middle aged is just about labour, but close.
Do these make these polls more accurate? I really don't know- perhaps Tories are more likely to be at home then, which sadly, means that perhaps they are more realistic than the weekly polls when Labour do better.
Only 11% non white
They should have produced a set of numbers weighted by actual TV viewing which would have been far more realistic.
Non-viewers had the Tories 6 points ahead if memory serves.
http://order-order.com/2015/03/30/labour-give-hated-atos-special-accesst-to-plans-for-government/
http://blog.paddypower.com/2015/03/30/damian-mcbride-my-501-outside-bet-to-be-next-labour-leader-if-ed-miliband-gets-the-bullet/
Paddy Power blog by Damien McBride.
See that the PB right-wing loons having a go at OGH for putting the 4% Labour lead into the headline. Lol.
You all have a choice, don't like OGH's threads, you can duly p*ss off from this blog.
OGH is the boss! Long live the boss!
Or even more intuitively you'd place £3.5 on 10-15% and £2.37 on 5-10%
Half the over 50s I know would never use an online anything never mind a poll so I don't see how that could be more representative.
Anyone else smelling the coffee?
Con = 206 + (50% of 20 DK/refused) = 216
LD = 34 + (30% of 18 DK/refused) = 39
total sample = 573+10+10+5 = 598
Con = 36.1%, Lab = 34.3 %, LD = 6.5%
Con 35.9, Lab 34.1, LD 7.1
A minority government is fraught with dangers even if the allure of "governing" alone might at first sight appear appealing.
I'll be laying the other side of that bet.
Tories = F***ed in London.
Am I correct that LA's England only figures show a 2% swing to Labour in England rather than the 6.1% being trumpeted only 24 hours ago by Peter Kellner?
Have been looking across the polls. Of the 8 pollsters making up the SKY Poll of Polls in the top corner of the TV screen, currently 4 have Tories in the lead, 2 have Labour in the lead and 2 are tied.
Sorry but it can't be done.
I think the DUP would play ball as long as they get cash, and a bedroom tax amendment. Their 9 MPs would carry the Tories to 324 seats, which would do the trick.
Pray for a Tory lead tonight
So it's true - somebody has shoved you a bung?
ICM 36 Tories 35 Labour
Populus 34 Tories 34 Labour
Survation 32 Tories 33 Labour
ComRes 36 Tories 32 Labour
Opinium 34 Tories 33 Labour
YouGov 32 Tories 36 Labour
Ashcroft 36 Tories 34 Labour
Ipsos Mori 33 Tories 34 Labour
TNS 33 Tories 32 Labour
Panelbase 34 Tories 34 Labour
So Tories have 3 x36, 3 x 34, 2 x 33 and 2 x 32
Labour has 1 x 36, 1 x 35, 4 x 34, 2 x33 and 2 x 32
Of course things could change later this evening if the much hyped Sunday Times YouGov is not repeated given it is the only current score of 36 for Labour.
Wonder what people think about possibility of Tory vote exceeding the 2010 score and Labour falling below its 2010 score?
The Saturday ARSE had Lab+SNP on 281 -well short whereas the only viable Con combination is with the LibDems at 342.
We shall await the morning ARSE to appraise developments.
The borough is very divided between rich and poor; look to all the noise surrounding the spare room subsidy and the closure of local authority facilities in places like Sands End for reasons why Labour won.
Traditionally it is a Labour held borough too, Cons only holding office for three terms, since 1964. And how can we forget the ill fated multi-million pound swaps losses under a previous Left administration. That was pure genius.
I wonder which way he would jump...
@kiranstacey: EdM wanted anyone except EdB to be shadow chancellor. Considered Burnham - "but Andy can't do maths". By @PickardJE http://t.co/PDNQUulOYx
@PickardJE: Warning from Balls' ally: “If you remember what happened last time Ed tried to sideline him it didn’t work out well.” http://t.co/ZgQ9Y8DgNj
Populus: Conservatives up 3%
Ashcroft: Conservatives up 3%
Tell me again how Miliband won the first debate.
I think the DUP would be much more pliant than the libs.
A few quid and bob's your uncle.