That sounds like a fair bit of "forecasting" from Gus O'Donnell to me.
Given that the premise of his argument is that England will be "largely Conservative voting" it's a pretty crap argument.
I know I'm a man with a fair few North Britain bets but it makes me wonder if the civil service is bricking it at the thought of a large contingent of SNP MPs ?
1) Don't bet against a hung Parliament unless you get long odds. 2) Labour most seats is a terrific value bet at 2/1. 3) Since the Conservatives look unlikely to get above 300 seats (I'd guess at least 3/1), the next Government is very likely to be a Labour-led government. Lay David Cameron as Prime Minister after the next election at anything close to, or even not very close to, current prices. He's odds on at present to keep his job. This is a crazy price. Enjoy
On point 3, I do think that Labour 226-250 is an absolutely cracking bet at 11/2. The two main parties are near-as-dammit in for 550 seats now, post-SNP surge, so 301-325 for the Tories corresponds pretty neatly to 226-250 for Labour. Yet one is top price 13/5 and the other 11/2.
Kinda agree, I've been desperate to find a bookie to offer odds on Labour having fewer seats in 2015 than they did in 2010.
Go on then, even money under 258
I think I'd be better off taking the 11/2 on Labour having 226 to 250 seats
Most Populus and Ashcroft polls this year have had Sunday fieldwork end-dates, and they publish the following day. Just that ComRes last night jumped the gun by about 12 hours!
So for that reason, and I know it will disappoint the more, shall we say, radicalised PB Tories, I'm going to include ComRes in this coming week's ELBOW.
So this weeks elbow awaits it's first Labour lead ?
That sounds like a fair bit of "forecasting" from Gus O'Donnell to me.
Given that the premise of his argument is that England will be "largely Conservative voting" it's a pretty crap argument.
About 38-39% of the English electorate is likely to vote Conservative. The Conservatives will probably outpoll Labour + Green combined. If you tack on UKIP at 12-13% you get 50% of the English electorate voting for centre-right parties.
Admittedly that's as crude as the way people used to merge the Lib Dem and Labour poll shares together in the 90s to 'prove' England had a centre-left majority, but it does show England leans further to the Right and is not enamoured by Labour.
Clegg off to Buck House shortly to see HM in his role as Lord President of the Privy Council.
Taking her a farewell pressie?
To surrender his Seal of Office, I suspect.
Reminds me of the time Sir Stafford Cripps insisted on seeing Winston Church at short notice. Came the retort: "Please inform the Lord Privy Seal that I am sealed in the privy and can only deal with one shit at a time!"
Most Populus and Ashcroft polls this year have had Sunday fieldwork end-dates, and they publish the following day. Just that ComRes last night jumped the gun by about 12 hours!
So for that reason, and I know it will disappoint the more, shall we say, radicalised PB Tories, I'm going to include ComRes in this coming week's ELBOW.
So this weeks elbow awaits it's first Labour lead ?
Except that the Tories will not get close to 50% of the vote in England.
They'll probably get a Plurality in England just like Lab did in Scotland during the Thatcher and Major years.
Ye shall reap what you sow
My point is more that in and of itself a Labour government backed by the SNP is unlikely to cause general uproar in England. It's what that government does that will matter.
And so it begins - like a leg fracture. I worked with Siemens about 4yrs ago on their global IT strategy and they are very hot on being neutral. I'm not at all surprised that they're really pissed.
Honestly, I can't believe Labour have used quotes without permission as quasi endorsements. It's insanely stupid. For any number of reasons.
OT but surely that makes a mockery of Twitter's 140 character limit
Back in the 90s taking a photo of some text and putting it on a website used to be an anti-pattern used by people barely understood the internet. Amazing that Facebook and Twitter have somehow contrived to bring it back.
Except that the Tories will not get close to 50% of the vote in England.
They'll probably get a Plurality in England just like Lab did in Scotland during the Thatcher and Major years.
Ye shall reap what you sow
One could certainly say Scotland was left-wing, if not Labour, during the Thatcher years.
In the same way one can currently say England is right wing, but not Conservative, today.
Depends what you mean by right wing. There's a major concern about immigration but then levels have been very high in recent years and people are worse off than they were even if for different reasons (the financial crisis). I'd also agree that people are on the whole most right wing on issues like capital punishment than the elite.
Economically speaking I don't see anything right wing about England.
Still cannot get the 'fact' that the LDs will poll sub~10% and yet get 20-30 seats - SI on PB currently says 24-26. It will be a most peculiar result.
The LibDem polling has got significantly worse since the near-extinction event of the 2014 Euros. Easy to see them virtually gone in Scotland, Wales, the Midlands, the South West and London. Where will they supposedly put up a fight?
If you assume that in English LD/Con marginals, most red LDs will continue to vote LD as a tactical anti-Tory vote, then I can see the LDs retaining 26 out of 34 Con/LD marginals. Con will lose a bit to UKIP and LD will lose a bit to Lab and Green but it will be mainly a repeat of 2010. The LD losses will be mainly in the South West.
If you assume that in English LD/Lab marginal seats, some former red LDs will switch to Lab then I see the LDs retaining only 1 out of the 10 marginals. (Bermondsey)
In Scotland, LDs will retain only 2 out of the 10 seats (Orkney and Ross).
In Wales, LDs will retain 2 out of 3 seats, losing Cardiff.
That makes LDs retaining 31 out of their 57 seats.
In this analysis, it really doesn't matter whether LDs are on 8% or 15% nationally. It is the behaviour of the red LDs, (who have defected to Lab in the national polls), that matters in the different kinds of marginals.
Hmm, I'm not sure you can take the red liberals for granted. While most of them hate the Tories, many also feel very betrayed by the LDs. I know of at least one who will vote Lab even if it lets the Tories back in.
Except that the Tories will not get close to 50% of the vote in England.
They'll probably get a Plurality in England just like Lab did in Scotland during the Thatcher and Major years.
Ye shall reap what you sow
One could certainly say Scotland was left-wing, if not Labour, during the Thatcher years.
In the same way one can currently say England is right wing, but not Conservative, today.
Depends what you mean by right wing. There's a major concern about immigration but then levels have been very high in recent years and people are worse off than they were even if for different reasons (the financial crisis). I'd also agree that people are on the whole most right wing on issues like capital punishment than the elite.
Economically speaking I don't see anything right wing about England.
Do people project their own bias when talking with regards to generalities, I'm not just talking us lot - Gus O'Donnell specifically...
Utterly OT: those missing Top Gear may enjoy this mash-up, using audio from the show with Just Cause 2 gameplay. It works rather well: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sFBi_h282p8
OT Does anyone here use TrackID? My new version is crap at recognising tracks. What's happened to it? It couldn't spot Sam Cooke doing You Send Me yesterday.
OT but surely that makes a mockery of Twitter's 140 character limit
Back in the 90s taking a photo of some text and putting it on a website used to be an anti-pattern used by people barely understood the internet. Amazing that Facebook and Twitter have somehow contrived to bring it back.
It's worse than that, several news sites seem to have decided on my behalf that I'd rather watch a 60-second video [at work, no less] than read a few paragraphs of text.
So apparently according to parliamentary rules since the election has been called MPs aren't allowed to call themselves MPs any more. Nothing forbidding you from calling yourself an MP if you're not an MP, though.
Except that the Tories will not get close to 50% of the vote in England.
They'll probably get a Plurality in England just like Lab did in Scotland during the Thatcher and Major years.
Ye shall reap what you sow
One could certainly say Scotland was left-wing, if not Labour, during the Thatcher years.
In the same way one can currently say England is right wing, but not Conservative, today.
Depends what you mean by right wing. There's a major concern about immigration but then levels have been very high in recent years and people are worse off than they were even if for different reasons (the financial crisis). I'd also agree that people are on the whole most right wing on issues like capital punishment than the elite.
Economically speaking I don't see anything right wing about England.
In terms of voting intention, I mean. Scotland isn't actually very much more left wing than England, in terms of attitudes, but it votes overwhelmingly left.
England will likely see 50-53% of the vote going to the Conservatives and UKIP, compared to 37-40% going to Labour and the Greens.
If a quote is on the record and in the public domain then you don't need the speaker's permission to use it. Though as a neutral organisation you can understand why Siemens would want to make clear it is not endorsing Labour policy.
One thing about the predicted *touches wood* SNP contingent and the remaining Lib Dem MPs is that we could very well have House of Lords reform back on the cards.
What is Labour's view on that ?
Would the Lib Dems get squeamish about reform when there is a party that is a fair bit to the left of them on the issue in play ?
So apparently according to parliamentary rules since the election has been called MPs aren't allowed to call themselves MPs any more. Nothing forbidding you from calling yourself an MP if you're not an MP, though.
A good poll for Labour in London. Labour 46%, Con 32%. In fact, the Conservative vote share is only down 2% on 2010, but Labour is up 10%. Recent polls record swings of 3-6% to Labour in London.
If a quote is on the record and in the public domain then you don't need the speaker's permission to use it. Though as a neutral organisation you can understand why Siemens would want to make clear it is not endorsing Labour policy.
Depends (haven't looked at ad yet) - if it gives a misleading impression of endorsement then that may fall into trademark (?) issues
Still cannot get the 'fact' that the LDs will poll sub~10% and yet get 20-30 seats - SI on PB currently says 24-26. It will be a most peculiar result.
The LibDem polling has got significantly worse since the near-extinction event of the 2014 Euros. Easy to see them virtually gone in Scotland, Wales, the Midlands, the South West and London. Where will they supposedly put up a fight?
If you assume that in English LD/Con marginals, most red LDs will continue to vote LD as a tactical anti-Tory vote, then I can see the LDs retaining 26 out of 34 Con/LD marginals. Con will lose a bit to UKIP and LD will lose a bit to Lab and Green but it will be mainly a repeat of 2010. The LD losses will be mainly in the South West.
If you assume that in English LD/Lab marginal seats, some former red LDs will switch to Lab then I see the LDs retaining only 1 out of the 10 marginals. (Bermondsey)
In Scotland, LDs will retain only 2 out of the 10 seats (Orkney and Ross).
In Wales, LDs will retain 2 out of 3 seats, losing Cardiff.
That makes LDs retaining 31 out of their 57 seats.
In this analysis, it really doesn't matter whether LDs are on 8% or 15% nationally. It is the behaviour of the red LDs, (who have defected to Lab in the national polls), that matters in the different kinds of marginals.
Hmm, I'm not sure you can take the red liberals for granted. While most of them hate the Tories, many also feel very betrayed by the LDs. I know of at least one who will vote Lab even if it lets the Tories back in.
Quite. Look at Yeovil - though Laws will probably survive.
I have assumed that 10% of 2010 LDs in marginal LD/Con seats will vote Lab this time (and a further 4% vote Green) for the reasons you give,
That is why I think LDs will lose 8 of their 34 LD/Con marginals.
So apparently according to parliamentary rules since the election has been called MPs aren't allowed to call themselves MPs any more. Nothing forbidding you from calling yourself an MP if you're not an MP, though.
Not quite. Parliament has been dissolved, it no longer exists. There are no MPs.
Except that the Tories will not get close to 50% of the vote in England.
They'll probably get a Plurality in England just like Lab did in Scotland during the Thatcher and Major years.
Ye shall reap what you sow
One could certainly say Scotland was left-wing, if not Labour, during the Thatcher years.
In the same way one can currently say England is right wing, but not Conservative, today.
Depends what you mean by right wing. There's a major concern about immigration but then levels have been very high in recent years and people are worse off than they were even if for different reasons (the financial crisis). I'd also agree that people are on the whole most right wing on issues like capital punishment than the elite.
Economically speaking I don't see anything right wing about England.
In terms of voting intention, I mean. Scotland isn't actually very much more left wing than England, in terms of attitudes, but it votes overwhelmingly left.
England will likely see 50-53% of the vote going to the Conservatives and UKIP, compared to 37-40% going to Labour and the Greens.
Northern Ireland is interesting - economically to the left, socially to the right of England.
So apparently according to parliamentary rules since the election has been called MPs aren't allowed to call themselves MPs any more. Nothing forbidding you from calling yourself an MP if you're not an MP, though.
Not quite. Parliament has been dissolved, it no longer exists. There are no MPs.
In that case they can call themselves MPs if they like, because as non-MPs they're not bound by parliamentary rules.
Still cannot get the 'fact' that the LDs will poll sub~10% and yet get 20-30 seats - SI on PB currently says 24-26. It will be a most peculiar result.
The LibDem polling has got significantly worse since the near-extinction event of the 2014 Euros. Easy to see them virtually gone in Scotland, Wales, the Midlands, the South West and London. Where will they supposedly put up a fight?
If you assume that in English LD/Con marginals, most red LDs will continue to vote LD as a tactical anti-Tory vote, then I can see the LDs retaining 26 out of 34 Con/LD marginals. Con will lose a bit to UKIP and LD will lose a bit to Lab and Green but it will be mainly a repeat of 2010. The LD losses will be mainly in the South West.
If you assume that in English LD/Lab marginal seats, some former red LDs will switch to Lab then I see the LDs retaining only 1 out of the 10 marginals. (Bermondsey)
In Scotland, LDs will retain only 2 out of the 10 seats (Orkney and Ross).
In Wales, LDs will retain 2 out of 3 seats, losing Cardiff.
That makes LDs retaining 31 out of their 57 seats.
In this analysis, it really doesn't matter whether LDs are on 8% or 15% nationally. It is the behaviour of the red LDs, (who have defected to Lab in the national polls), that matters in the different kinds of marginals.
Hmm, I'm not sure you can take the red liberals for granted. While most of them hate the Tories, many also feel very betrayed by the LDs. I know of at least one who will vote Lab even if it lets the Tories back in.
There is a lot of hatred in the nutty red liberals, and the far left in general, more than enough to go around.
A good poll for Labour in London. Labour 46%, Con 32%. In fact, the Conservative vote share is only down 2% on 2010, but Labour is up 10%. Recent polls record swings of 3-6% to Labour in London.
Behold the future if current immigration trends continue. Elysium it ain't.
A good poll for Labour in London. Labour 46%, Con 32%. In fact, the Conservative vote share is only down 2% on 2010, but Labour is up 10%. Recent polls record swings of 3-6% to Labour in London.
Any reason's why Labour is doing so well in London versus elsewhere?
Not sure how good it is for Dave to be on the far end, poor for Clegg next to Bennett methinks - that side isn't going to be nearly as noticed, he'd give his eye teeth to switch with Wood I reckon.
A good poll for Labour in London. Labour 46%, Con 32%. In fact, the Conservative vote share is only down 2% on 2010, but Labour is up 10%. Recent polls record swings of 3-6% to Labour in London.
A good poll for Labour in London. Labour 46%, Con 32%. In fact, the Conservative vote share is only down 2% on 2010, but Labour is up 10%. Recent polls record swings of 3-6% to Labour in London.
Any reason's why Labour is doing so well in London versus elsewhere?
White British people are a minority in London I would have thought that's the main reason
A good poll for Labour in London. Labour 46%, Con 32%. In fact, the Conservative vote share is only down 2% on 2010, but Labour is up 10%. Recent polls record swings of 3-6% to Labour in London.
UKIP a touch high at 9% there?
UKIP at 9% in London could be bad for the Tories possibly...
Just think that it is more likely that David Cameron will form the next government. It is instinctive but even today labour seem all over the place upsetting Siemens by using their name and Chukka getting into all kind of problems with the IFS saying that he doesn't accept their figures. Add in the SNP and the mantra of competence v chaos will have a huge impact.
A good poll for Labour in London. Labour 46%, Con 32%. In fact, the Conservative vote share is only down 2% on 2010, but Labour is up 10%. Recent polls record swings of 3-6% to Labour in London.
A good poll for Labour in London. Labour 46%, Con 32%. In fact, the Conservative vote share is only down 2% on 2010, but Labour is up 10%. Recent polls record swings of 3-6% to Labour in London.
Any reason's why Labour is doing so well in London versus elsewhere?
White British people are a minority in London I would have thought that's the main reason
The main reason is that the LibDem vote has collapsed and a large part of it has gone to Labour.
There should be a "Super-ELBOW" for the whole of March due on 1st April. Last two monthly leads for Lab: January 1.1%, February 1.2%. March's will be at variance!
A good poll for Labour in London. Labour 46%, Con 32%. In fact, the Conservative vote share is only down 2% on 2010, but Labour is up 10%. Recent polls record swings of 3-6% to Labour in London.
Behold the future if current immigration trends continue. Elysium it ain't.
Who'd have thought wicked immigrants would have caused the LibDem vote to collapse in London just like it has everywhere else and that like every other big city in Britain London is more left than right?
A good poll for Labour in London. Labour 46%, Con 32%. In fact, the Conservative vote share is only down 2% on 2010, but Labour is up 10%. Recent polls record swings of 3-6% to Labour in London.
UKIP a touch high at 9% there?
Same as the ICM London poll last week
Maybe I've been overdoing it a little - I had them 6.2% in London on an outturn of 11.8% nationwide
The implied SNP propensity to vote is way up there in that Populus ... hopefully they'll be able to harness the zeal of the newly converted on May 7th...
A good poll for Labour in London. Labour 46%, Con 32%. In fact, the Conservative vote share is only down 2% on 2010, but Labour is up 10%. Recent polls record swings of 3-6% to Labour in London.
Lib Dems may not be wiped out. The South West bridgehead may stay Yellow. But I am not 100% sure about Davey.
Well, I am not going to vote for him, that's for sure.
A good poll for Labour in London. Labour 46%, Con 32%. In fact, the Conservative vote share is only down 2% on 2010, but Labour is up 10%. Recent polls record swings of 3-6% to Labour in London.
Any reason's why Labour is doing so well in London versus elsewhere?
c.40% of voters are from ethnic minorities; lots of professional public sector workers, and people in occupations like media, arts, fashion, etc. And a big, in your face gap, between rich and poor. Most similar cities in Western democracies vote left for similar reasons.
A good poll for Labour in London. Labour 46%, Con 32%. In fact, the Conservative vote share is only down 2% on 2010, but Labour is up 10%. Recent polls record swings of 3-6% to Labour in London.
Any reason's why Labour is doing so well in London versus elsewhere?
I think Ed's rent freeze is very attractive in London. A lot of my friends are willing to give it a go having seen their rents rise by over 10% a year for a few years now. The Tories need to do something about greedy landlords or they can kiss goodbye to London for a long time. Most of my friends should be natural Tory voters (higher rate tax payers, educated, private sector) and most of them are open to it, but they don't believe that the Tories are on the side of young professionals and everyone is worried about being stuck renting until their early forties.
They really, really need to do something about the private rentals sector and step in and take an axe to buy-to-let. If the Tories are ever going to win in London they absolutely have to do it. Generation rent in London (and other cities) will never vote for a party that stands for greedy landlords ripping them off.
A good poll for Labour in London. Labour 46%, Con 32%. In fact, the Conservative vote share is only down 2% on 2010, but Labour is up 10%. Recent polls record swings of 3-6% to Labour in London.
UKIP a touch high at 9% there?
UKIP at 9% in London could be bad for the Tories possibly...
My guess is that UKIP won't reach 9% in London as a whole (obviously, the party will poll well in Bromley, Bexley, Hillingdon, and Havering).
So apparently according to parliamentary rules since the election has been called MPs aren't allowed to call themselves MPs any more. Nothing forbidding you from calling yourself an MP if you're not an MP, though.
It is arguable that the House of Commons could punish all those who fraudulently impersonated MPs as contemnors of Parliament.
A good poll for Labour in London. Labour 46%, Con 32%. In fact, the Conservative vote share is only down 2% on 2010, but Labour is up 10%. Recent polls record swings of 3-6% to Labour in London.
Any reason's why Labour is doing so well in London versus elsewhere?
I think Ed's rent freeze is very attractive in London. A lot of my friends are willing to give it a go having seen their rents rise by over 10% a year for a few years now. The Tories need to do something about greedy landlords or they can kiss goodbye to London for a long time. Most of my friends should be natural Tory voters (higher rate tax payers, educated, private sector) and most of them are open to it, but they don't believe that the Tories are on the side of young professionals and everyone is worried about being stuck renting until their early forties.
They really, really need to do something about the private rentals sector and step in and take an axe to buy-to-let. If the Tories are ever going to win in London they absolutely have to do it. Generation rent in London (and other cities) will never vote for a party that stands for greedy landlords ripping them off.
The problem with rent controls is that they just kill off the rental sector.
A good poll for Labour in London. Labour 46%, Con 32%. In fact, the Conservative vote share is only down 2% on 2010, but Labour is up 10%. Recent polls record swings of 3-6% to Labour in London.
UKIP a touch high at 9% there?
Same as the ICM London poll last week
Maybe I've been overdoing it a little - I had them 6.2% in London on an outturn of 11.8% nationwide
I think it will be, as nationwide, a volatile vote... 1-2% in tower hamlets and newham 25-30% in hornchurch and romford
A good poll for Labour in London. Labour 46%, Con 32%. In fact, the Conservative vote share is only down 2% on 2010, but Labour is up 10%. Recent polls record swings of 3-6% to Labour in London.
Lib Dems may not be wiped out. The South West bridgehead may stay Yellow. But I am not 100% sure about Davey.
Well, I am not going to vote for him, that's for sure.
I can see Laws, Clegg, Browne (Yes I know he has gone) appeal to the soft centre-right; and Huppert, Farron's appeal to the centre-left but the root of Davey's appeal utterly mystifies me.
A good poll for Labour in London. Labour 46%, Con 32%. In fact, the Conservative vote share is only down 2% on 2010, but Labour is up 10%. Recent polls record swings of 3-6% to Labour in London.
Any reason's why Labour is doing so well in London versus elsewhere?
White British people are a minority in London I would have thought that's the main reason
The main reason is that the LibDem vote has collapsed and a large part of it has gone to Labour.
Labours crutch?!
I thought that had been shown as less substantial than thought
In wales the lib dem vote went labour then Ukip if you look at the graphs.. It was mostly NOTA not sandals
A good poll for Labour in London. Labour 46%, Con 32%. In fact, the Conservative vote share is only down 2% on 2010, but Labour is up 10%. Recent polls record swings of 3-6% to Labour in London.
UKIP a touch high at 9% there?
Same as the ICM London poll last week
Maybe I've been overdoing it a little - I had them 6.2% in London on an outturn of 11.8% nationwide
I think it will be, as nationwide, a volatile vote... 1-2% in tower hamlets and newham 25-30% in hornchurch and romford
Isn't Andrew Rosindell UKIPpy enough for the locals? He was my MP, once upon a time!
A good poll for Labour in London. Labour 46%, Con 32%. In fact, the Conservative vote share is only down 2% on 2010, but Labour is up 10%. Recent polls record swings of 3-6% to Labour in London.
Any reason's why Labour is doing so well in London versus elsewhere?
c.40% of voters are from ethnic minorities; lots of professional public sector workers, and people in occupations like media, arts, fashion, etc. And a big, in your face gap, between rich and poor. Most similar cities in Western democracies vote left for similar reasons.
All big cities on the UK mainland, whatever their ethnic make-up, tend to back parties on the left.
A good poll for Labour in London. Labour 46%, Con 32%. In fact, the Conservative vote share is only down 2% on 2010, but Labour is up 10%. Recent polls record swings of 3-6% to Labour in London.
Any reason's why Labour is doing so well in London versus elsewhere?
I think Ed's rent freeze is very attractive in London. A lot of my friends are willing to give it a go having seen their rents rise by over 10% a year for a few years now. The Tories need to do something about greedy landlords or they can kiss goodbye to London for a long time. Most of my friends should be natural Tory voters (higher rate tax payers, educated, private sector) and most of them are open to it, but they don't believe that the Tories are on the side of young professionals and everyone is worried about being stuck renting until their early forties.
They really, really need to do something about the private rentals sector and step in and take an axe to buy-to-let. If the Tories are ever going to win in London they absolutely have to do it. Generation rent in London (and other cities) will never vote for a party that stands for greedy landlords ripping them off.
The problem with rent controls is that they just kill off the rental sector.
Yes, well I think that's the point. So many people I know have money in the bank, but still can't afford to buy a house/flat because prices are just out of control. A collapse in the rental sector and landlords selling up because they can no longer make outrageous profits by leeching off the generations below them is something a lot of people support. Especially in London. The Tories need to get themselves on the right side of the argument. Increasing housing supply in outer London and other places people don't want to live isn't going to make a difference. It is virtually impossible to increase housing supply in inner London, areas like Angel, Shoreditch, King's Cross and Bloomsbury needs housing supply, and that can only come from existing stock which means ousting the buy-to-let landlords.
A good poll for Labour in London. Labour 46%, Con 32%. In fact, the Conservative vote share is only down 2% on 2010, but Labour is up 10%. Recent polls record swings of 3-6% to Labour in London.
Any reason's why Labour is doing so well in London versus elsewhere?
I think Ed's rent freeze is very attractive in London. A lot of my friends are willing to give it a go having seen their rents rise by over 10% a year for a few years now. The Tories need to do something about greedy landlords or they can kiss goodbye to London for a long time. Most of my friends should be natural Tory voters (higher rate tax payers, educated, private sector) and most of them are open to it, but they don't believe that the Tories are on the side of young professionals and everyone is worried about being stuck renting until their early forties.
They really, really need to do something about the private rentals sector and step in and take an axe to buy-to-let. If the Tories are ever going to win in London they absolutely have to do it. Generation rent in London (and other cities) will never vote for a party that stands for greedy landlords ripping them off.
The problem with rent controls is that they just kill off the rental sector.
What about controls for the global super rich using London property as a physical bank account?
I don't know what the solution is - I'm a free marketeer - but London property rents and prices have got to the point now where something must be done. I can't see any mayor ever building enough to keep the prices stable.
A good poll for Labour in London. Labour 46%, Con 32%. In fact, the Conservative vote share is only down 2% on 2010, but Labour is up 10%. Recent polls record swings of 3-6% to Labour in London.
Any reason's why Labour is doing so well in London versus elsewhere?
I think Ed's rent freeze is very attractive in London. A lot of my friends are willing to give it a go having seen their rents rise by over 10% a year for a few years now. The Tories need to do something about greedy landlords or they can kiss goodbye to London for a long time. Most of my friends should be natural Tory voters (higher rate tax payers, educated, private sector) and most of them are open to it, but they don't believe that the Tories are on the side of young professionals and everyone is worried about being stuck renting until their early forties.
They really, really need to do something about the private rentals sector and step in and take an axe to buy-to-let. If the Tories are ever going to win in London they absolutely have to do it. Generation rent in London (and other cities) will never vote for a party that stands for greedy landlords ripping them off.
The problem with rent controls is that they just kill off the rental sector.
Given most of these people want to buy, they aren't going to be too fussed about that.
Ultimately they are seeing all the money they could have been saving for a deposit going to some landlord.
Don't underestimate the anger there is amongst those who every month have this rubbed into their faces when rent is due, although it is very much a London phenomenon as elsewhere in the UK rents have been flat or falling.
A good poll for Labour in London. Labour 46%, Con 32%. In fact, the Conservative vote share is only down 2% on 2010, but Labour is up 10%. Recent polls record swings of 3-6% to Labour in London.
UKIP a touch high at 9% there?
Same as the ICM London poll last week
Maybe I've been overdoing it a little - I had them 6.2% in London on an outturn of 11.8% nationwide
I think it will be, as nationwide, a volatile vote... 1-2% in tower hamlets and newham 25-30% in hornchurch and romford
Isn't Andrew Rosindell UKIPpy enough for the locals? He was my MP, once upon a time!
Yeah I think he will win although my uncle, a member of the romford Con club for thirty years, told him in no uncertain terms he had lost his vote to Ukip and lots of the posher part of rommo (Gidea Pk) have Ukip signs up
Very noticeable Eastern European community in Romford now, East London council tenants have been moved there from gentrified parts of Newham and the hospital built to replace the two that closed is beyond a joke... Google 'romford recorder queens hospital'
My dad works in a romford school ( though maybe in Dagenham and Rainham seat).. 18/23 kids in the class don't speak English as first language... Whether you think that's a good or bad thing it will be a vote winner for Ukip (and labour by my earlier logic!)
A good poll for Labour in London. Labour 46%, Con 32%. In fact, the Conservative vote share is only down 2% on 2010, but Labour is up 10%. Recent polls record swings of 3-6% to Labour in London.
Any reason's why Labour is doing so well in London versus elsewhere?
c.40% of voters are from ethnic minorities; lots of professional public sector workers, and people in occupations like media, arts, fashion, etc. And a big, in your face gap, between rich and poor. Most similar cities in Western democracies vote left for similar reasons.
All big cities on the UK mainland, whatever their ethnic make-up, tend to back parties on the left.
And small towns tend to be more Tory, even if the two areas are not massively dissimiliar.
You can see this phenomenon very sharply with Coventry South and Kenilworth.
A good poll for Labour in London. Labour 46%, Con 32%. In fact, the Conservative vote share is only down 2% on 2010, but Labour is up 10%. Recent polls record swings of 3-6% to Labour in London.
Lib Dems may not be wiped out. The South West bridgehead may stay Yellow. But I am not 100% sure about Davey.
Well, I am not going to vote for him, that's for sure.
I can see Laws, Clegg, Browne (Yes I know he has gone) appeal to the soft centre-right; and Huppert, Farron's appeal to the centre-left but the root of Davey's appeal utterly mystifies me.
Someone in Parliament has to represent the village idiots....from the insider's perspective.
A good poll for Labour in London. Labour 46%, Con 32%. In fact, the Conservative vote share is only down 2% on 2010, but Labour is up 10%. Recent polls record swings of 3-6% to Labour in London.
Any reason's why Labour is doing so well in London versus elsewhere?
I think Ed's rent freeze is very attractive in London. A lot of my friends are willing to give it a go having seen their rents rise by over 10% a year for a few years now. The Tories need to do something about greedy landlords or they can kiss goodbye to London for a long time. Most of my friends should be natural Tory voters (higher rate tax payers, educated, private sector) and most of them are open to it, but they don't believe that the Tories are on the side of young professionals and everyone is worried about being stuck renting until their early forties.
They really, really need to do something about the private rentals sector and step in and take an axe to buy-to-let. If the Tories are ever going to win in London they absolutely have to do it. Generation rent in London (and other cities) will never vote for a party that stands for greedy landlords ripping them off.
The problem with rent controls is that they just kill off the rental sector.
Yes, well I think that's the point. So many people I know have money in the bank, but still can't afford to buy a house/flat because prices are just out of control. A collapse in the rental sector and landlords selling up because they can no longer make outrageous profits by leeching off the generations below them is something a lot of people support. Especially in London. The Tories need to get themselves on the right side of the argument. Increasing housing supply in outer London and other places people don't want to live isn't going to make a difference. It is virtually impossible to increase housing supply in inner London, areas like Angel, Shoreditch, King's Cross and Bloomsbury needs housing supply, and that can only come from existing stock which means ousting the buy-to-let landlords.
'Outrageous profits' & 'leeching'. Are you writing the Labour Manifesto?
I doubt many private landlords are 'coining' as much as you think they are.
I'm shedding tears for your mates whining because they can't afford to live in ridiculously expensive areas. Look somewhere cheaper, and less trendy.
A good poll for Labour in London. Labour 46%, Con 32%. In fact, the Conservative vote share is only down 2% on 2010, but Labour is up 10%. Recent polls record swings of 3-6% to Labour in London.
Any reason's why Labour is doing so well in London versus elsewhere?
I think Ed's rent freeze is very attractive in London. A lot of my friends are willing to give it a go having seen their rents rise by over 10% a year for a few years now. The Tories need to do something about greedy landlords or they can kiss goodbye to London for a long time. Most of my friends should be natural Tory voters (higher rate tax payers, educated, private sector) and most of them are open to it, but they don't believe that the Tories are on the side of young professionals and everyone is worried about being stuck renting until their early forties.
They really, really need to do something about the private rentals sector and step in and take an axe to buy-to-let. If the Tories are ever going to win in London they absolutely have to do it. Generation rent in London (and other cities) will never vote for a party that stands for greedy landlords ripping them off.
A good poll for Labour in London. Labour 46%, Con 32%. In fact, the Conservative vote share is only down 2% on 2010, but Labour is up 10%. Recent polls record swings of 3-6% to Labour in London.
Any reason's why Labour is doing so well in London versus elsewhere?
I think Ed's rent freeze is very attractive in London. A lot of my friends are willing to give it a go having seen their rents rise by over 10% a year for a few years now. The Tories need to do something about greedy landlords or they can kiss goodbye to London for a long time. Most of my friends should be natural Tory voters (higher rate tax payers, educated, private sector) and most of them are open to it, but they don't believe that the Tories are on the side of young professionals and everyone is worried about being stuck renting until their early forties.
They really, really need to do something about the private rentals sector and step in and take an axe to buy-to-let. If the Tories are ever going to win in London they absolutely have to do it. Generation rent in London (and other cities) will never vote for a party that stands for greedy landlords ripping them off.
The problem with rent controls is that they just kill off the rental sector.
Yes, well I think that's the point. So many people I know have money in the bank, but still can't afford to buy a house/flat because prices are just out of control. A collapse in the rental sector and landlords selling up because they can no longer make outrageous profits by leeching off the generations below them is something a lot of people support. Especially in London. The Tories need to get themselves on the right side of the argument. Increasing housing supply in outer London and other places people don't want to live isn't going to make a difference. It is virtually impossible to increase housing supply in inner London, areas like Angel, Shoreditch, King's Cross and Bloomsbury needs housing supply, and that can only come from existing stock which means ousting the buy-to-let landlords.
But, that didn't work out well in the past. People found themselves stuck with sitting tenants paying a pittance. The only landlords who went into the market were people like Rachman and Hoogstraaten who violently evicted said sitting tenants, and then made a huge profit on vacant properties.
Hundreds of thousands of people find themselves in the position of either having to let out their own property, as they move elsewhere, or wanting to take a letting.
Comments
Ye shall reap what you sow
Or is that me being a bit Wings over Sheffield ?
https://twitter.com/Sunil_P2/status/582183414062813184
In the same way one can currently say England is right wing, but not Conservative, today.
https://twitter.com/Sunil_P2/status/582183941739847681
@bbckamal: Siemens on Labour: “We did not give them permission [to use the quote]. We did not know about this. We are an a-political organisation.”
Admittedly that's as crude as the way people used to merge the Lib Dem and Labour poll shares together in the 90s to 'prove' England had a centre-left majority, but it does show England leans further to the Right and is not enamoured by Labour.
Reminds me of the time Sir Stafford Cripps insisted on seeing Winston Church at short notice. Came the retort: "Please inform the Lord Privy Seal that I am sealed in the privy and can only deal with one shit at a time!"
Your cheque is in the post
Honestly, I can't believe Labour have used quotes without permission as quasi endorsements. It's insanely stupid. For any number of reasons.
Economically speaking I don't see anything right wing about England.
If Ed can find an excuse to drive up the Mall she'll have the hat trick...
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sFBi_h282p8
https://twitter.com/Sunil_P2/status/582186238930731009
http://viz.co.uk/roger-mellie-top-gear/
https://twitter.com/Sunil_P2/status/582187057994444800
https://twitter.com/Sunil_P2/status/582185731872940032
It's as near as he'll get....
England will likely see 50-53% of the vote going to the Conservatives and UKIP, compared to 37-40% going to Labour and the Greens.
What is Labour's view on that ?
Would the Lib Dems get squeamish about reform when there is a party that is a fair bit to the left of them on the issue in play ?
A good poll for Labour in London. Labour 46%, Con 32%. In fact, the Conservative vote share is only down 2% on 2010, but Labour is up 10%. Recent polls record swings of 3-6% to Labour in London.
Clegg remains in post as does the PM and all other government ministers until such time as the PM tenders his resignation to the Queen.
Hell Yes !!
I have assumed that 10% of 2010 LDs in marginal LD/Con seats will vote Lab this time (and a further 4% vote Green) for the reasons you give,
That is why I think LDs will lose 8 of their 34 LD/Con marginals.
EDIT: I suspect Cameron will be happy with that, Clegg less so
Politically almost completely seperate.
Revealed - Thursday's 7 way debate stage order: Left to right; Bennett, Clegg, Farage, Miliband, Wood, Sturgeon, Cameron.
EDIT Sorry. Didn't see Pulpstar was there before me.
Well, I am not going to vote for him, that's for sure.
They really, really need to do something about the private rentals sector and step in and take an axe to buy-to-let. If the Tories are ever going to win in London they absolutely have to do it. Generation rent in London (and other cities) will never vote for a party that stands for greedy landlords ripping them off.
I thought that had been shown as less substantial than thought
In wales the lib dem vote went labour then Ukip if you look at the graphs.. It was mostly NOTA not sandals
I don't know what the solution is - I'm a free marketeer - but London property rents and prices have got to the point now where something must be done. I can't see any mayor ever building enough to keep the prices stable.
Ultimately they are seeing all the money they could have been saving for a deposit going to some landlord.
Don't underestimate the anger there is amongst those who every month have this rubbed into their faces when rent is due, although it is very much a London phenomenon as elsewhere in the UK rents have been flat or falling.
Very noticeable Eastern European community in Romford now, East London council tenants have been moved there from gentrified parts of Newham and the hospital built to replace the two that closed is beyond a joke... Google 'romford recorder queens hospital'
My dad works in a romford school ( though maybe in Dagenham and Rainham seat).. 18/23 kids in the class don't speak English as first language... Whether you think that's a good or bad thing it will be a vote winner for Ukip (and labour by my earlier logic!)
twitter.com/Sox117/status/582310429743009792
You can see this phenomenon very sharply with Coventry South and Kenilworth.
I doubt many private landlords are 'coining' as much as you think they are.
I'm shedding tears for your mates whining because they can't afford to live in ridiculously expensive areas. Look somewhere cheaper, and less trendy.
Birmingham has stacks of affordable properties
http://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2014/dec/22/birmingham-boom-londoners-move-in
Hundreds of thousands of people find themselves in the position of either having to let out their own property, as they move elsewhere, or wanting to take a letting.