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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » If teachers are as hostile to the Tories as they were 16 mo
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » If teachers are as hostile to the Tories as they were 16 months ago then that could have an impact that is not being picked up by standard polling
During one of the breaks at the big LSE GE forecasting conference on Friday I was asked for suggestions of ideas for interesting polling that could tell us more than what we see in standard surveys or constituency polling. After pondering this over the weekend I think that a repetition of the surveys above might give us a useful insight.
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Teachers are voters like any other, they will be picked up in proportion to their influence in the electorate by random sampling. You might as well say nurses, social workers or other likely left leaning public sector workers not liking the government will make a difference, they will, but not more nor less than any other voter, and their vote is no more "hidden" than any other voter. I dare say you could make similar suggestions for bankers for the Tories.
One day.....
Just look at the March 2010 polling - the Tories were ahead.
Public sector workers are aware that money is tight, but Mike is right in pointing out that the denigration by cabinet members is foolish.
Isn't that a "tie"? Nice meme, but you wouldn't want to try that on with Andrew Neil - ask Lucy "real world (aka wrong) Powell.
I suspect teachers may by sympathy be more likely to vote Labour - but also likely to vote against the government - hence the tie in 2010.
5 years of Lucy Powell "economics" of "widening the tax base" during a time of record employment (lower personal allowance?) may see them falling for the charms of the Tories again....
To some extent we all vote with our wallet and the one way in which the Tories may be able to garner additional support is by taking middle earners out of the 40% higher rate tax band which is catching an ever increasing number and will certainly continue to do so should Labour win on 7 May.
There'll be significantly more coverage for the LibDems and Ukip.
The producers have turned to Labour to protect their vested interests and fiefdoms. It is the consumers - pupils - who will reap the benefits of Free Schools. They will get a better education than they would have done otherwise and will be better prepared for the adult world.
The ungrateful little shits will then vote Labour anyway because the Tories have already made the hard unpopular decisions and fixed things.
At bit like Mrs JackW .... she has toothache and an appointment with the driller killer looms.
It's not to be discounted, that's a serious number
One of the interesting factors of this incredibly unpredictable campaign is how the balance has changed since 2010. There are in round terms nearly 1m fewer public sector workers than there were then and nearly 3m more private sector workers. A simplistic analysis suggests this should favour the Tories with a greater proportion of the electorate exposed to the realities of the market but there are undoubtedly a series of counter movements.
Obvious examples are those previously employed in the public sector and resentful of having to work harder for less, those getting the sharp end of the market with ZHCs and lousy employers taking advantage, those who used to get help from those million public sector employees who now don't. etc etc.
Like everything else in this election it is hard to read but I would be very surprised if those still in the public sector, who have had a pretty rough time of it these last 5 years, are more Labour inclined than they were in 2010. The fact that the Tories are still clearly intending further public sector cuts will once again make them apprehensive.
What is staggering is that there are still further meaningful cuts to be made, having already reduced the number emplyed in the Public Sector by more than one million.
In God's name, just what did they all do all day ..... it's difficult to notice they've gone, other than in our largely frozen Council Tax bills (or actually reduced bills for those of us in living in the London Borough of Wandsworth).
Indeed – 16 months is a long time in politics.
So, are we expecting another poll commissioned by the NUT shortly or not?
And I've just read YouGov will poll 7 days a week after Easter - Yippee!
Looking at the time stamp on the post, it looks like somebody's server hasn't changed to BST
Edit - oops I wasn't signed in :embarrassed smilie:
http://www.spectator.co.uk/features/9376232/free-speech-is-so-last-century-todays-students-want-the-right-to-be-comfortable/ Not to mention all the "safe space" policies covering large swathes of modern universities aka. the right not to be offended.
Ah, a Brendan O'Neill article in the Spectator proves your point. I see :-D.
It might be worth reflecting on the fact that his string of anecdotes begins with some taken from Oxford and Cambridge universities, where about 40% of students went to private schools.
My teacher granddaughter is voting Tory. However, that’s because she’s in Castle Point and doesn’t want UKIP to get in.
Unfortunately, I doubt for one second that he was giving us any kind of a steer as to what these might indicate.
A fundamentally flawed form of words surely?
"recent trends in both capital wealth and income are driven almost entirely by housing"
Rather than taxing businesses and wealthy investors, “policy-makers should deal with the planning regulations and NIMBYism that inhibit housebuilding and which allow homeowners to capture super-normal returns on their investments.
https://medium.com/the-ferenstein-wire/a-26-year-old-mit-graduate-is-turning-heads-over-his-theory-that-income-inequality-is-actually-2a3b423e0c
We'll cut the deficit by cutting ministerial pay... (chuckle, guffaw)
Not sure why there's such a focus on teachers' voting intentions compared to other occupations.
No doubt Populus will have a healthy Labour lead as per normal today and goodness knows what the noble LA will have with his trampoline poll at 4pm.
Mmmmmm.........
@BBCNormanS: Labour's @ChukaUmunna refuses to put figure on likely capital borrowing and size of deficit under Labour by 2020 @bbcr4today
I also don't think not being part of the EU entails doing no trade and having no travel to/from the continent.
Personally I felt it was the most inept performance by a Labour spokesperson I can readily remember. If she is incapable of dealing with this particular interviewer, she shouldn't have been put forward. Time and time again Neill asked her to provide numbers and time and time again she failed to come up with any ..... quite hopeless.
By the way since the budget I see !abour have quietly dropped the 1600 quid worse off line. Just another inaccurate sound bite that bites the dust.
How exactly does a government mandate a pay rise ? Sure you can increase the minimum wage, but if that makes the job uncompetitive compared to either not doing it, or doing it somewhere else, the job will disappear and less tax will be paid and unemployment will go up.
"The IFS figure is wrong. I can't tell you the right figure..."
Also Oops
Perhaps the 10p rate is to soften the blow?
Now I come to think of it, perhaps pollsters have only asked about certain groups.
The act of taxation is just moved towards consumption instead of direct taxation on incomes or profits.
So by removing low paid from tax is a bad thing then. Due to the fact said low paid have now been lifted out of tax we can't afford good public services.
Ok, glad we got that cleared up.
The only significant difference is that the earning taxpayer is deciding how to spend their hard earned cash rather than the army of Lucy Powell's.
http://enormo-haddock.blogspot.co.uk/2015/03/malaysia-post-race-analysis.html
Worth noting that Grosjean had a lack of power for the whole race due to a turbo issue. I do think my tip would've failed anyway, but he would've been further up the field and the result does not reflect the pace of the Lotus.
We have a large deficit and currently spend more on interest payments than Defence. We can't magic money from nowhere.
I don't think most people would be too concerned with the short hours, long holidays, generous pensions etc if there were no strikes, threats and constant complaining and that is what the Mail picks up on. In my experience there are some very good dedicated teachers but they are in a minority.
Personally I'm all for a smaller state that does fewer things better and funds them properly.