What I find so entertaining about a handful of PBers is that they constantly mistake brow-beating others into *agreeing with them* as if that actually was a true reflection of what these voters thought.
That's how the BNP won lots of council seats in places like Dagenham by calling the worried electorate racists.
Still - I'm sure these activists felt even more self-righteous afterwards - numpties.
... Saw on twitter last night EDL saying all those on the far right Should vote UKIP from now on...
Did he actually say "Far Right", Mr, Sam? If so I wonder who he thought he was talking too. I have never met anyone who thought their views belonged to the far right, or far left, they were just normal "common-sense" people. As an example, many years ago I used to drink with a member of the CPGB (and a founder member of CAMRA), who thought some other lot were left-wing extremists. In fact its not even needed to go to the extremes, I read this morning of a Labour bod talking about his party as being right-off centre in an approving way.
It would be interesting to see a breakdown by political control of those councils which have not got Local land use plans in place and are therefore vulnerable to 'predatory developers', as Miliband minor might say:
Labour should easily be able to exceed 60%. They are the main opposition at a time of government mid-term unpopularity, they got 52% in 2010 at a low point in national terms, and they've been very close to or over 60% in every other election from 1992 onwards.
Poland is one of Europe’s relative success stories. It avoided the severe slump that afflicted much of the European periphery, then had a fairly strong recover... And a lot of that relative success clearly had to do with the fact that Poland not only kept its own currency, but allowed the zloty to float...
So what does Poland’s leadership want to do? Why, join the euro, of course.
It really does make you want to bang your head against a wall. Think of Spain, Ireland, now Cyprus. How much more evidence do we need that the euro is a trap, which can all too easily leave countries with no good options in the face of crisis? Even if you’ve bought into the legend of Latvia, which you shouldn’t, you should be willing to acknowledge that euro membership is at best a gamble, with a potentially terrible downside.
But no; they still believe that one more cavalry charge will drive those tanks away.
Take Hertfordshire as an example, which the Conservatives lost overall control of in 1993.
In 2009, the Conservatives won 46%, Lib Dems 27%, Labour 14%, Green 7%, BNP 3%, Others 2%. The seats were Conservative 55, Lib Dem 17, Labour 3, Greens 1, BNP 1.
A swing of 12.5% each from Conservative and Lib Dem to Labour (which would not be far off last year's local election vote shares) gives the Conservatives 45 seats, Labour 17, Lib Dems 13, and Greens 1.
Which gives almost the same result as in 2005. Does this mean Labour is actually behind in England. In mid parliament?
As a poster has drawn our attention to the similarities between North Korea and Scotland - I think we may have the answer to an independent Scotland's navy - photoshop!
The racist vote wont be that high but a good indie could easily do very well. I think we have to wait to see who's standing to make a few of these calls with a lot of confidence.
Thanks for your spreadsheet with selections to date. Can you give a running total for the big 3 but not counting incumbents if it's not too much bother?
Poland is one of Europe’s relative success stories. It avoided the severe slump that afflicted much of the European periphery, then had a fairly strong recover... And a lot of that relative success clearly had to do with the fact that Poland not only kept its own currency, but allowed the zloty to float...
So what does Poland’s leadership want to do? Why, join the euro, of course.
It really does make you want to bang your head against a wall. Think of Spain, Ireland, now Cyprus. How much more evidence do we need that the euro is a trap, which can all too easily leave countries with no good options in the face of crisis? Even if you’ve bought into the legend of Latvia, which you shouldn’t, you should be willing to acknowledge that euro membership is at best a gamble, with a potentially terrible downside.
But no; they still believe that one more cavalry charge will drive those tanks away.
The Poles have no choice. They agreed to sign up to the Euro when they joined.
At first sight, around 32 councils out of the 100 who didn't even start the process are Labour run. The majority of the other Tories with a couple of LibDem councils.
EnglishDefenceLeague (@Official_EDL) 26/03/2013 23:24 I think all nationalist parties should stand aside in areas that UKIP have a good chance of winning. Lets not... fb.me/1gkiORcM1
Labour should easily be able to exceed 60%. They are the main opposition at a time of government mid-term unpopularity, they got 52% in 2010 at a low point in national terms, and they've been very close to or over 60% in every other election from 1992 onwards.
True enough, but Labour too is likely to lose a share of its support to UKIP and as i mentioned upthread I feel there may be a measure of dissatisfaction with their departing MP.
Would you like a straight tenner on Labour winning + (you)/- (me) 55% of the vote?
Thanks for your spreadsheet with selections to date. Can you give a running total for the big 3 but not counting incumbents if it's not too much bother?
I say 40 Lab and 33 Con...but I await for confirmations
Poland is one of Europe’s relative success stories. It avoided the severe slump that afflicted much of the European periphery, then had a fairly strong recover... And a lot of that relative success clearly had to do with the fact that Poland not only kept its own currency, but allowed the zloty to float...
So what does Poland’s leadership want to do? Why, join the euro, of course.
It really does make you want to bang your head against a wall. Think of Spain, Ireland, now Cyprus. How much more evidence do we need that the euro is a trap, which can all too easily leave countries with no good options in the face of crisis? Even if you’ve bought into the legend of Latvia, which you shouldn’t, you should be willing to acknowledge that euro membership is at best a gamble, with a potentially terrible downside.
But no; they still believe that one more cavalry charge will drive those tanks away.
Is Poland still the biggest net beneficary of the EU budget? It may explain a lot of europhilia.
Joining the Euro is not nessicarily a problem if a country has a balanced budget, controlled inflation and joins at the correct exchange rate. The problem was that the EU allowed a lot of countries in who were not really in converging economies.
As Neil says the BNP are financially defunct, and subject to infighting on a vicious scale among the remaing cadre. Plus UKIP have grabbed the racist right vote and allied it with the anti establishment, anti immigrant vote leaving the BNP and EDL with nowhere to go, so unless some surprise independent stands I'd be amazed if BNP+others was >5%
Fair enough, but we are only 3% apart and my 8% was expressed as being a MAXIMUM figure for "Others".
Socrates, just as soon as you specify the detailed powers you think Scotland is going to get, I'll give you odds. I'm afraid you're not getting away with a ludicrously vague, non-falsifiable definition of "substantial".
PS. Good to see dodd back...rejoice...pb can never have enough dots...
I realise I'm in a minority of one on here, but it's worth reiterating that - unlike Spain or Ireland - Cyprus's problems really have nothing to do with the Euro.
The Cypriot banks (Bank of Cyprus and Laiki) had taken massive deposits from out of the country long before Cyprus even joined the EU. These were not Cyprus Pounds deposits, these were Dollar, Swiss Franc and Euro deposits. The banks converted these deposits into Cyprus Pounds and used them to fuel a local debt boom second only to Iceland. (In 2007, the number one country in the world for private sector debt was Iceland. Number two was Cyprus.)
Whether Cyprus had joined the Euro or not, this was always going to end badly, as the Cypriot government, even had they retained the Cyprus Pound, would not have been able to print the Dollars, Swiss Francs and Euros that their banks owed to depositors in Russia and the like.
We would still have - almost certainly - seen depositors getting haircut. It would just have happened outside the Eurozone.
Berwick: Anne-Marie Trevelyan Bolton West: Christopher Green Brecon and Radnorshire: Christopher Davies Cardiff North: Craig Williams Cheadle: Mary Robinson Cheltenham: Alex Chalk Chippenham: Michelle Donelan Chorley: Robert Loughenbury Delyn: Mark Isherwood Derby North: Amanda Solloway Derbyshire North East: Lee Rowley Dudley North: Afzal Amin Eastbourne: Caroline Ansell Gower: Byron Davies Halifax: Philip Allott Hampstead and Kilburn: Simon Marcus( Harrow West: Hannah David Mid Dorset and North Pool: Michael Tomlinson Newcastle Under Lyme: Tony Cox North Cornwall: Scott Mann North Devon: Peter Heaton-Jones Nottingham South: Rowena Holland Portsmouth South: Flick Drummond St Austell and Newquay: Stephen Double Solihull: Julian Knight St Ives: Derek Thomas Somerton and Frome; David Warburton Southampton Itchen : Royston Smith Sutton and Cheam: Paul Scully Torbay: Kevin Foster Vale of Clwyd: James Davies Wirral South: Scott Bell Wells: James Heappey
I feel sure that somewhere in the Monty Python archives there must be a sketch about a "libertarian with a fiscal conservative twist" who earnestly claims to be a serial Labour voter, and "exactly the sort of person Labour needs to win back to have ANY CHANCE of winning the next general election".
There's a sketch about Mr Angus Podgorny, owner of a Dunbar menswear shop, who received an order for 48,000,000 kilts from the planet Skyron in the Galaxy of Andromeda.
When asked by his wife how he'd get all the kilts in his van, he said he'd have to make 2 trips.
It was something to do with a Scot never winning Wimbledon - clearly this was pre- Andy Murray.
I'm arguing that Scotland would get something substantial, although I'm not sure precisely what. It's completely falsifiable: if there is no transfer of power at all, or if it's so minor that the SNP reject it, or don't say anything positive about it, I will have lost the bet.
You're doing the old technique of making a bold statement, and then being too cowardly to back it up by trying to find disagreements in specifics. It's like me wanting to bet that a country would surrender in a war and then you demanding to know precisely what the peace terms would be.
Your claim was that Scotland would get "nothing" after a no vote. I wanted to bet on that. When you then caveated this by saying that fig leafs didn't count, I accepted that wiggle and said fine, we'll bet on a significant transfer of powers. When you wanted to ask what was significant I allowed YOUR party, the SNP, to be the judge.
So come on. Put your money where your mouth is. What are the odds of an SNP-liked transfer of powers to Holyrood?
I realise I'm in a minority of one on here, but it's worth reiterating that - unlike Spain or Ireland - Cyprus's problems really have nothing to do with the Euro.
The Cypriot banks (Bank of Cyprus and Laiki) had taken massive deposits from out of the country long before Cyprus even joined the EU. These were not Cyprus Pounds deposits, these were Dollar, Swiss Franc and Euro deposits. The banks converted these deposits into Cyprus Pounds and used them to fuel a local debt boom second only to Iceland. (In 2007, the number one country in the world for private sector debt was Iceland. Number two was Cyprus.)
Whether Cyprus had joined the Euro or not, this was always going to end badly, as the Cypriot government, even had they retained the Cyprus Pound, would not have been able to print the Dollars, Swiss Francs and Euros that their banks owed to depositors in Russia and the like.
We would still have - almost certainly - seen depositors getting haircut. It would just have happened outside the Eurozone.
Yes, but outside the Eurozone, Cyprus would have done an Iceland, and devalued, and now be on the road to recovery. Rather than be facing years of horrendous austerity, as they now will do.
Thanks, doesnt look like Labour have a particularly entrenched advantage there, particularly as they have more open seats. IoS will have to tweak the algorithm!
... The only question is: do we do it after lunch, or before.
Well before lunch please, Mr T. I believe the traditional time in England was 0900 in London and 0800 for the counties (why the difference, I don't know). That meant one could still have a decent breakfast but luncheon, which lets face it can go on a bit, would be undisturbed by having to dash off to witness events.
Other Tory MPs have been reselected. I am sure of the ones in Stockton South and Reading East and West. Probably others too as they don't often announce it loudly (possibly because it's a given they would win the readoption vote).
As you can see, in 2007, Cyprus private sector debt to GDP was 250.1%, the second highest level in the world, and only 10% below Iceland.
Here is the page for the Laiki Bank annual reports (http://www.laikibankgroup.com/en/investorrelations/pages/annualreports.aspx). You will see that the growth in assets predated Cyprus's entry into the Euro. Laiki bank loans trebled from Cyprus Pounds 4bn to 12bn in four years - and this was before the Euro, and this was not domestic deposits. (The same trend happened at Bank of Cyprus.)
Now, would you kindly explain how the Cyrus government could have filled the c $15bn hole in their balance sheets in - or out - of the Euro?
You said Scotland would get "nothing". I'm betting that Scotland would get more than that WITH ALEX SALMOND AS THE JUDGE. That's more than fair. I don't have to get the precise terms of the transfer of powers right for Scotland to get more than "nothing".
It's very simple.
If Scotland votes yes and goes independent: you win. If there is no transfer at all: you win. If there is a transfer and the SNP say it doesn't count for much: you win If there is a transfer and the SNP say this is a big deal: I win.
In what possible way could the fourth event happen and yet you be accurate in saying Scotland would get "nothing"?
Labour started earlier to select (2011-12) but just in selected areas (to be sure boundary changes would have not eliminated the seat or that a neighbouring sitting MP would need it). Then after it was evident that the boundary changes were dead, they let many selections go ahead. The Tories did the same at the same time....but their process is much more flexible and faster than Labour. Apart when they have to readvertize them because of lack of applications.
Labour need regional offices' consultations, regional office's report to the NEC, NEC deciding on AWS, branch nominations and so on. It all takes time.
Welsh Government pays £52m for Cardiff airport.(apparently well over market value - but not if used as building land).
First Minister Carwyn Jones said it would not be operated by the government and would be managed "at arm's length" and "on a commercial basis".
Figures showed just over one million passengers used Cardiff in 2012, down about 200,000 in a year.
Meanwhile, nearby competitor Bristol Airport, which has sought assurances that Cardiff will not get state handouts, had seen almost six million passengers last year.
Cardiff was hit by the withdrawal of flights by budget airline bmibaby in 2011, but has said it expects 5% - 8% growth during 2013.
Mr Jones has been critical of the airport after a slump in passenger numbers from a peak of two million in 2007 to just over one million in 2012.
Rival airport Bristol raised concerns that Cardiff would unfairly benefit from state support.
Speaking after the government announced the deal, Mr Jones said it was vital for the number of passengers to be increased.
Large sums of money needs to be spent to bring it up to international standards especially new road access from M4 and a link to the railway station. Probably another money hole for Wales at a time when they are cutting NHS provision.
I think it's John Bell in Wirral South, not Scott Bell.
yes, thanks. I got it wrong on another forum, maybe you corrected me there too (because I recall someone made already noticed me that I called him with another name) but I forgot to correct it on the file on my computer
As you can see, in 2007, Cyprus private sector debt to GDP was 250.1%, the second highest level in the world, and only 10% below Iceland.
Here is the page for the Laiki Bank annual reports (http://www.laikibankgroup.com/en/investorrelations/pages/annualreports.aspx). You will see that the growth in assets predated Cyprus's entry into the Euro. Laiki bank loans trebled from Cyprus Pounds 4bn to 12bn in four years - and this was before the Euro, and this was not domestic deposits. (The same trend happened at Bank of Cyprus.)
Now, would you kindly explain how the Cyrus government could have filled the c $15bn hole in their balance sheets in - or out - of the Euro?
Out of interest how much did they 'invest' in Greek banks?
Could this Entertainment Lawyer blind item be suggesting Stephen Baldwin is more than just friends with Sarah Palin?
This actor is probably C+. Definitely has A list name recognition although some may get him confused with others. He does have his own unique spin though. He is also a big drinker. Not uncommon with this group. It is the things he does when he drinks that sets him apart. Plus, he thinks he can get away with anything because of something important in his life. So, when he ends up in his daughter's room and passes out in bed with his daughter's friend, he blames it on the booze and knows everything will be ok. When parents don't let their daughters come over anymore because of this regular habit, he blames it on the booze and knows everything will be ok. Hitting his wife? Blame it on the booze. She does not press charges because she thinks it is his right because of their situation. Long time affair with an annoying A list celebrity who is way more starstruck than you would expect and would get some serious opposition from her countless detractors if they found out. Might have a tough time getting more bookings if her supporters found out too. She definitely is a divider that one. He likes to tell everyone he is sober but he is not even close. He counts in the months before he is at it again.
Robert, read this if you think it was all the Cypriots fault. This whole 'keep the Euro whatever the cost' syndrome is a disgrace, why do people like you support it? What is your agenda, why do you think it is a worthwhile project no matter the human suffering?
Cyprus banks lost around EUR900m from the haircutting of Greek bonds. So, it was a serious factor, but it was only c. 7% of the EUR16bn in the banks' balance sheets.
Do you know how much of the loss was generated from the the Greek networks of Cypriot banks? Do you think the previous President was bound to stand behind them or is it something he should have thrown into the discussions then (rather than running off to Russia)?
BBC 6pm News led on Abu Quatada. Yvette scathing on the Government failure and managed to keep a straight face (did Labour not try in their 13 years? John Reid surely did?)
But mentions of "European" and "rulings" will impact, and a mention for what about the human rights of the victims of terrorism. That must be worth a couple of percentage points to UKIP.
I could sense the piss boiling in a few South Shields voters from here.
Socrates, if you seriously want to have a bet that an SNP First Minister will describe powers transferred in the event of a No vote as a "big deal" (those exact words, nothing less), then you're on. Odds of 10/1. I trust you're not going to row back hurriedly now that I've called your bluff?
Ch4 now telling the inside story of the Cyprus bail-in. "Berlin/Brussels humiliated "at best" Cyprus" - but the rejection of the original plan democratically led to a plan "three times worse" than the original plan - and the issue is that Greek losses in Cypriot banks were ported into Cyprus and Cypriot depositors
You seem to be under the illusion that the EU has taken money away from the Cypriots. It has not.
The Cyprus banks - Laiki in particular, but also to a lesser extent the Bank of Cyprus - lost a lot of money. Some of this was due to losses on Greek government bonds, but the vast majority was lost in a consumer debt bubble in Cyprus of epic proportions. (Cypriots on average owe about 6x as much - in terms of personal debt - as Italians. And that's despite the Italians having much higher incomes.)
The result of this is that the Cypriot banks no longer had as many assets as their liabilities. (And, by the way, the weakness of the Euro also screwed them - a lot of the money deposited in them was in Dollar and Swiss Franc accounts.)
The result of this was a EUR16bn hole in the balance sheets of the Cypriot banks. This hole is being filled by the Eurozone lending Cyprus EUR10bn, and by the bank accounts at the bust institutions being haircut.
The only way to bring assets in line with liabilities is to take in more assets (i.e. the Eurozone lending EUR10bn to the Cypriot government, so it can acquire shares in the Bank of Cyprus), and to shrink liabilities (by reducing what the bust banks owe to depositors).
What the Cypriot government wanted was for the Eurozone to lend them the full EUR16bn, so that they could continue as before. Rightly or wrongly, the Germans and the Dutch felt that this was excessive, as it would raise government debt-to-GDP close to 200%. (In other words, they felt that such loans would never have been repaid. It was also electorally 'difficult' for German politicians to sign up for bailing out Russian depositors.)
I wrote "Cyprus banks lost around EUR900m from the haircutting of Greek bonds. So, it was a serious factor, but it was only c. 7% of the EUR16bn in the banks' balance sheets."
Unfortunately, I missed a very important word. I missed the word HOLE. There is a EUR16bn HOLE in the banks balance sheets. I.e., they need EUR16bn to bring their assets in line with their liabilities and to add a c. 10% tier one capital buffer.
Without that word, my post was grossly misleading.
Cyprus banks lost around EUR900m from the haircutting of Greek bonds. So, it was a serious factor, but it was only c. 7% of the EUR16bn in the banks' balance sheets.
Your figures are at odds with most press reports. Here is an extract from a quite detailed Reuters article:
More striking was the bank's [Bank of Cyprus and Cyprus Popular Bank] exposure to Greek debt.
At the time, Bank of Cyprus's 2.4 billion euros of Greek debt was enough to wipe out 75 percent of the bank's total capital, while Laiki's 3.4 billion euros exposure outstripped its 3.2 billion euros of total capital.
The close ties between Greece and Cyprus meant the Cypriot banks did not listen to warnings about this exposure.
The banks sold down some of their Greek holdings, but then got back into the market as yields rose. "When the Germans were selling, they were buying," said Apostolides, referring to the German banks' 2011 dumping of Greek debt.
That looks more like 33% of the the banks' balance sheets if your figure of EUR16bn is correct.
Edit: Reuters figures derive from the European Banking Authority's 2011 "stress tests" the results of which were published in July 2011.
BTW; I've just discovered a NYT article which claims Laiki lost EUR2.3bn from the Greek haircut rather than the EUR900m I claimed below. I *think* they are mistaken, and that the EUR2.3bn refers to their total holding.
But let me check. I have a Morgan Stanley research document on my desk at work which has all the data in. I will share tomorrow. But my EUR900m could be out by a factor of 2.
BTW; I've just discovered a NYT article which claims Laiki lost EUR2.3bn from the Greek haircut rather than the EUR900m I claimed below. I *think* they are mistaken, and that the EUR2.3bn refers to their total holding.
But let me check. I have a Morgan Stanley research document on my desk at work which has all the data in. I will share tomorrow. But my EUR900m could be out by a factor of 2.
Robert, check the edit on my post. The source for most of the figures being quoted in the press is the EBA Stress Test report of July 2011.
However, EUR16bn is not the total size of the Cyriot banks balance sheets. That is the size of the *hole* in their accounts - i.e. the difference between assets and liabilities.
Total assets of the Cypriot banking systems are north of EUR80bn.
Another interesting twitter-point: would a government get away with thieving the people, as the EU has done to Cypriots, IF most of the Cypriots were armed, and ready to form a militia?
I doubt it very much. And there, in a nutshell, is the reason gun-laws won't pass in America, for good or ill. Americans believe a government might come after them, and they need the constitutional right to defend themselves. And who, after Cyprus, would say they are wrong?
I've often pondered that point myself. One of the big issues protecting politicians, bankers etc. is civilised legality. They don't really think they can end up with their heads on a pole because of the law, civilised society etc. so they can push things as far as they think their lawyer can defend. The question is how far can they push it until something snaps ?
'Even before the Greek debt bombshell, Laiki Bank “was already in a bad way because of bad lending,” said Kikis Lazarides, a former chairman of the bank. But, he added, the write-down on Greek bonds “was more or less the killer blow.”'
Socrates, if you seriously want to have a bet that an SNP First Minister will describe powers transferred in the event of a No vote as a "big deal" (those exact words, nothing less), then you're on. Odds of 10/1. I trust you're not going to row back hurriedly now that I've called your bluff?
I'm certainly not going to back out - and I'd happily take odds of less than 10/1 - but I'm not going to be bound to one exact phrase. Let's expand it to the SNP leadership describing the new powers as "broad", "substantial", "expansive", "major", "significant", "considerable", "substantive", "sizable" or "extensive".
A credit bubble by definition means the banks are over-leveraged after the bubble bursts. The bigger the bubble the more toxic assets* are left on the banks' books afterwards,
It's a systemic problem.
*assets valued at boom prices even though they can only be sold at bust prices.
BTW; I've just discovered a NYT article which claims Laiki lost EUR2.3bn from the Greek haircut rather than the EUR900m I claimed below. I *think* they are mistaken, and that the EUR2.3bn refers to their total holding.
But let me check. I have a Morgan Stanley research document on my desk at work which has all the data in. I will share tomorrow. But my EUR900m could be out by a factor of 2.
Did you not bother reading the link I posted, your figures are miles out
Looks like Frank Field will cease to be the PB Tories favourite Labour MP tonight.
Mr Field said he had never witnessed a measure as “grossly unfair” as the bedroom tax in his 30 years of dealing with welfare reforms as the MP for Birkenhead.
He said: “I feel so strongly about what the Government are doing to my constituents and similarly placed constituents around the country that I call on both social housing and housing association landlords to defy the measures, not by not operating them, but by doing what landlords did after the Nine Years’ War, when a Government similarly stretched for money imposed a window tax.
“In many instances – we see it in older properties in our constituencies – landlords bricked up windows. I hope landlords will brick up the doors to spare bedrooms and, where appropriate, knock down the walls, so that the properties can safely fit the tenants. I have never before asked for direct action. I do so now because I feel the measures are grossly unfair.”
He added: “Why do I advocate for the first time direct action? I do so because the tax is so grossly unfair and is levied on some of the most vulnerable people in our society. Wicked actions require a different response from parliamentarians.”
Mr Field said: “We are trying to control the demand of people on low income to fit on with the regimented holes in which the government would like to fit them
Another interesting twitter-point: would a government get away with thieving the people, as the EU has done to Cypriots, IF most of the Cypriots were armed, and ready to form a militia?
I've often pondered that point myself. One of the big issues protecting politicians, bankers etc. is civilised legality. The question is how far can they push it until something snaps ?
My guess is that we are quite close to the snapping point: not least because the euro-elite are so divorced from the ordinary people, financially, culturally and emotionally.
We are governed by a new boyar class (as we have often discussed on here): the millionaire multilingual Davos Man who worries about climate change and frets about carbon footprints as he flies Business Class around the globe, chatting over his iPad with his like-minded friends from Denmark and California.
It was these f8ckwits, or their uncles, who came up with the euro. The fact that they are so much richer than the rest of us will not stand in their favour if it all kicks off.
Was it Davos man that came up with the Euro? Surely it was more old European politician grandees, who wanted to be remembered as the founding fathers of Europe, a dirigiste state to be a counter-weight to the USA?
Comments
Forsa:
CDU/CSU: 41%
SPD: 24%
Green: 14%
Linke: 8%
FDP: 5%
Pirate: 3%
Others: 5%
http://www.wahlrecht.de/umfragen/index.htm
I wonder whether the increase in the share of Others has anything to do with the new anti-EU party which was launched recently.
Shadsy's better than them, Pulp. You need to know that.
That's how the BNP won lots of council seats in places like Dagenham by calling the worried electorate racists.
Still - I'm sure these activists felt even more self-righteous afterwards - numpties.
http://blogs.channel4.com/factcheck/factcheck-housing-crisis-update/13116
Labour should easily be able to exceed 60%. They are the main opposition at a time of government mid-term unpopularity, they got 52% in 2010 at a low point in national terms, and they've been very close to or over 60% in every other election from 1992 onwards.
http://krugman.blogs.nytimes.com/2013/03/27/poland-is-not-yet-lost/
Poland is one of Europe’s relative success stories. It avoided the severe slump that afflicted much of the European periphery, then had a fairly strong recover... And a lot of that relative success clearly had to do with the fact that Poland not only kept its own currency, but allowed the zloty to float...
So what does Poland’s leadership want to do? Why, join the euro, of course.
It really does make you want to bang your head against a wall. Think of Spain, Ireland, now Cyprus. How much more evidence do we need that the euro is a trap, which can all too easily leave countries with no good options in the face of crisis? Even if you’ve bought into the legend of Latvia, which you shouldn’t, you should be willing to acknowledge that euro membership is at best a gamble, with a potentially terrible downside.
But no; they still believe that one more cavalry charge will drive those tanks away.
In Middlesbrough it rose from 45.9% to 60.5%.
Not sure Stephen Mousehole is necessarily a princely name, though...
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/asia/northkorea/9957315/North-Korea-photoshopping-Why-would-they-want-to-trick-the-world.html
Lewes is anti-establishment and prides itself on being a maverick place - men dressed as Uncle Bulgaria aren't a rarity...
So - if Tories are going freelance to Kippers, it'll be worth watching what happens in LE May and similar places like Bath.
Note - Norman Baker is the LD MP.
Thanks for your spreadsheet with selections to date. Can you give a running total for the big 3 but not counting incumbents if it's not too much bother?
http://www.itv.com/news/update/2013-03-27/miliband-if-im-pm-ill-get-david-involved/
At first sight, around 32 councils out of the 100 who didn't even start the process are Labour run. The majority of the other Tories with a couple of LibDem councils.
You're correct, apologies
EnglishDefenceLeague (@Official_EDL)
26/03/2013 23:24
I think all nationalist parties should stand aside in areas that UKIP have a good chance of winning. Lets not... fb.me/1gkiORcM1
Would you like a straight tenner on Labour winning + (you)/- (me) 55% of the vote?
I say 40 Lab and 33 Con...but I await for confirmations
Joining the Euro is not nessicarily a problem if a country has a balanced budget, controlled inflation and joins at the correct exchange rate. The problem was that the EU allowed a lot of countries in who were not really in converging economies.
PS. Good to see dodd back...rejoice...pb can never have enough dots...
The Cypriot banks (Bank of Cyprus and Laiki) had taken massive deposits from out of the country long before Cyprus even joined the EU. These were not Cyprus Pounds deposits, these were Dollar, Swiss Franc and Euro deposits. The banks converted these deposits into Cyprus Pounds and used them to fuel a local debt boom second only to Iceland. (In 2007, the number one country in the world for private sector debt was Iceland. Number two was Cyprus.)
Whether Cyprus had joined the Euro or not, this was always going to end badly, as the Cypriot government, even had they retained the Cyprus Pound, would not have been able to print the Dollars, Swiss Francs and Euros that their banks owed to depositors in Russia and the like.
We would still have - almost certainly - seen depositors getting haircut. It would just have happened outside the Eurozone.
Candidate selections so far:
Con: 34
Lab: 40
LD: 12
UKIP: 31
Green: 2
Total: 119
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0At91c3wX1Wu5dFkzTjFrRmJRN3F6ODBTTEs4NGFhcUE#gid=0
The old "pound coin holder" look!
Words fail me, what a moron
Berwick: Anne-Marie Trevelyan
Bolton West: Christopher Green
Brecon and Radnorshire: Christopher Davies
Cardiff North: Craig Williams
Cheadle: Mary Robinson
Cheltenham: Alex Chalk
Chippenham: Michelle Donelan
Chorley: Robert Loughenbury
Delyn: Mark Isherwood
Derby North: Amanda Solloway
Derbyshire North East: Lee Rowley
Dudley North: Afzal Amin
Eastbourne: Caroline Ansell
Gower: Byron Davies
Halifax: Philip Allott
Hampstead and Kilburn: Simon Marcus(
Harrow West: Hannah David
Mid Dorset and North Pool: Michael Tomlinson
Newcastle Under Lyme: Tony Cox
North Cornwall: Scott Mann
North Devon: Peter Heaton-Jones
Nottingham South: Rowena Holland
Portsmouth South: Flick Drummond
St Austell and Newquay: Stephen Double
Solihull: Julian Knight
St Ives: Derek Thomas
Somerton and Frome; David Warburton
Southampton Itchen : Royston Smith
Sutton and Cheam: Paul Scully
Torbay: Kevin Foster
Vale of Clwyd: James Davies
Wirral South: Scott Bell
Wells: James Heappey
You're doing the old technique of making a bold statement, and then being too cowardly to back it up by trying to find disagreements in specifics. It's like me wanting to bet that a country would surrender in a war and then you demanding to know precisely what the peace terms would be.
Your claim was that Scotland would get "nothing" after a no vote. I wanted to bet on that. When you then caveated this by saying that fig leafs didn't count, I accepted that wiggle and said fine, we'll bet on a significant transfer of powers. When you wanted to ask what was significant I allowed YOUR party, the SNP, to be the judge.
So come on. Put your money where your mouth is. What are the odds of an SNP-liked transfer of powers to Holyrood?
Thanks, doesnt look like Labour have a particularly entrenched advantage there, particularly as they have more open seats. IoS will have to tweak the algorithm!
Ironically, it's Aidan Burley in Cannock Chase.
Search for Hannah trixie on twitter...
EDIT: The picture has changed after someone called her a troll
Other Tory MPs have been reselected. I am sure of the ones in Stockton South and Reading East and West. Probably others too as they don't often announce it loudly (possibly because it's a given they would win the readoption vote).
Aidan Burley has been officially re-selected in Cannock Chase:
http://www.birminghammail.co.uk/news/local-news/aidan-burley-mp-reselected-represent-1317880
You cast the word 'liar' around a lot. Clearly you do not know what it means.
OK. Let's start with private sector debt to GDP. You can get the data here: http://data.worldbank.org/indicator/FS.AST.PRVT.GD.ZS?order=wbapi_data_value_2007+wbapi_data_value+wbapi_data_value-last&sort=desc&page=1
As you can see, in 2007, Cyprus private sector debt to GDP was 250.1%, the second highest level in the world, and only 10% below Iceland.
Here is the page for the Laiki Bank annual reports (http://www.laikibankgroup.com/en/investorrelations/pages/annualreports.aspx). You will see that the growth in assets predated Cyprus's entry into the Euro. Laiki bank loans trebled from Cyprus Pounds 4bn to 12bn in four years - and this was before the Euro, and this was not domestic deposits. (The same trend happened at Bank of Cyprus.)
Now, would you kindly explain how the Cyrus government could have filled the c $15bn hole in their balance sheets in - or out - of the Euro?
It's very simple.
If Scotland votes yes and goes independent: you win.
If there is no transfer at all: you win.
If there is a transfer and the SNP say it doesn't count for much: you win
If there is a transfer and the SNP say this is a big deal: I win.
In what possible way could the fourth event happen and yet you be accurate in saying Scotland would get "nothing"?
Mentioning Reading ... I believe our Jane's blog is no more!! I cant find it
Labour started earlier to select (2011-12) but just in selected areas (to be sure boundary changes would have not eliminated the seat or that a neighbouring sitting MP would need it).
Then after it was evident that the boundary changes were dead, they let many selections go ahead. The Tories did the same at the same time....but their process is much more flexible and faster than Labour. Apart when they have to readvertize them because of lack of applications.
Labour need regional offices' consultations, regional office's report to the NEC, NEC deciding on AWS, branch nominations and so on. It all takes time.
I think it's John Bell in Wirral South, not Scott Bell.
First Minister Carwyn Jones said it would not be operated by the government and would be managed "at arm's length" and "on a commercial basis".
Figures showed just over one million passengers used Cardiff in 2012, down about 200,000 in a year.
Meanwhile, nearby competitor Bristol Airport, which has sought assurances that Cardiff will not get state handouts, had seen almost six million passengers last year.
Cardiff was hit by the withdrawal of flights by budget airline bmibaby in 2011, but has said it expects 5% - 8% growth during 2013.
Mr Jones has been critical of the airport after a slump in passenger numbers from a peak of two million in 2007 to just over one million in 2012.
Rival airport Bristol raised concerns that Cardiff would unfairly benefit from state support.
Speaking after the government announced the deal, Mr Jones said it was vital for the number of passengers to be increased.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-21952079
Large sums of money needs to be spent to bring it up to international standards especially new road access from M4 and a link to the railway station. Probably another money hole for Wales at a time when they are cutting NHS provision.
http://richardwillisuk.wordpress.com/2012/12/06/breaking-news-rob-wilson-reselected-for-reading-east/
search on twitter, reselected, re-selected, readopted, re-adopted and you got another couple.
And Ann McIntosh lost the direct readoption vote.
However, it's a bit tricky to have a general picture because if the 80 year old executive members don't have twitter, they cann't let us know.
LOL! I am sure the members will vote to keep her. Don't worry.
http://www.thenorthernecho.co.uk/news/10311883.MP_chosen_to_fight_marginal_seat_again_next_time/
He's the Tories' youngest MP and the second youngest overall after Pamela Nash.
This actor is probably C+. Definitely has A list name recognition although some may get him confused with others. He does have his own unique spin though. He is also a big drinker. Not uncommon with this group. It is the things he does when he drinks that sets him apart. Plus, he thinks he can get away with anything because of something important in his life. So, when he ends up in his daughter's room and passes out in bed with his daughter's friend, he blames it on the booze and knows everything will be ok. When parents don't let their daughters come over anymore because of this regular habit, he blames it on the booze and knows everything will be ok. Hitting his wife? Blame it on the booze. She does not press charges because she thinks it is his right because of their situation. Long time affair with an annoying A list celebrity who is way more starstruck than you would expect and would get some serious opposition from her countless detractors if they found out. Might have a tough time getting more bookings if her supporters found out too. She definitely is a divider that one. He likes to tell everyone he is sober but he is not even close. He counts in the months before he is at it again.
Was it you that said Iceland was doing no better for staying out the Euro?
https://www.google.co.uk/publicdata/explore?ds=z8o7pt6rd5uqa6_&met_y=unemployment_rate&idim=country:ie&fdim_y=seasonality:sa&dl=en&hl=en&q=ireland unemployment#!ctype=l&strail=false&bcs=d&nselm=h&met_y=unemployment_rate&fdim_y=seasonality:sa&scale_y=lin&ind_y=false&rdim=country_group&idim=country:ie:is:cy:el:es&ifdim=country_group&tstart=1048723200000&tend=1353974400000&hl=en_US&dl=en&ind=false
www.nytimes.com/.../europeans-planted-seeds-of-crisis-in-cyprus.ht...
http://www.thetelegraphandargus.co.uk/news/10314640.Philip_Davies_will_be_Shipley_candidate_at_next_General_Election/
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/italy/9957609/Pier-Luigi-Bersani-Only-a-mentally-ill-person-would-want-to-govern-Italy.html
Do you know how much of the loss was generated from the the Greek networks of Cypriot banks? Do you think the previous President was bound to stand behind them or is it something he should have thrown into the discussions then (rather than running off to Russia)?
But mentions of "European" and "rulings" will impact, and a mention for what about the human rights of the victims of terrorism. That must be worth a couple of percentage points to UKIP.
I could sense the piss boiling in a few South Shields voters from here.
You seem to be under the illusion that the EU has taken money away from the Cypriots. It has not.
The Cyprus banks - Laiki in particular, but also to a lesser extent the Bank of Cyprus - lost a lot of money. Some of this was due to losses on Greek government bonds, but the vast majority was lost in a consumer debt bubble in Cyprus of epic proportions. (Cypriots on average owe about 6x as much - in terms of personal debt - as Italians. And that's despite the Italians having much higher incomes.)
The result of this is that the Cypriot banks no longer had as many assets as their liabilities. (And, by the way, the weakness of the Euro also screwed them - a lot of the money deposited in them was in Dollar and Swiss Franc accounts.)
The result of this was a EUR16bn hole in the balance sheets of the Cypriot banks. This hole is being filled by the Eurozone lending Cyprus EUR10bn, and by the bank accounts at the bust institutions being haircut.
The only way to bring assets in line with liabilities is to take in more assets (i.e. the Eurozone lending EUR10bn to the Cypriot government, so it can acquire shares in the Bank of Cyprus), and to shrink liabilities (by reducing what the bust banks owe to depositors).
What the Cypriot government wanted was for the Eurozone to lend them the full EUR16bn, so that they could continue as before. Rightly or wrongly, the Germans and the Dutch felt that this was excessive, as it would raise government debt-to-GDP close to 200%. (In other words, they felt that such loans would never have been repaid. It was also electorally 'difficult' for German politicians to sign up for bailing out Russian depositors.)
Unfortunately, I missed a very important word. I missed the word HOLE. There is a EUR16bn HOLE in the banks balance sheets. I.e., they need EUR16bn to bring their assets in line with their liabilities and to add a c. 10% tier one capital buffer.
Without that word, my post was grossly misleading.
More striking was the bank's [Bank of Cyprus and Cyprus Popular Bank] exposure to Greek debt.
At the time, Bank of Cyprus's 2.4 billion euros of Greek debt was enough to wipe out 75 percent of the bank's total capital, while Laiki's 3.4 billion euros exposure outstripped its 3.2 billion euros of total capital.
The close ties between Greece and Cyprus meant the Cypriot banks did not listen to warnings about this exposure.
The banks sold down some of their Greek holdings, but then got back into the market as yields rose. "When the Germans were selling, they were buying," said Apostolides, referring to the German banks' 2011 dumping of Greek debt.
That looks more like 33% of the the banks' balance sheets if your figure of EUR16bn is correct.
Edit: Reuters figures derive from the European Banking Authority's 2011 "stress tests" the results of which were published in July 2011.
But let me check. I have a Morgan Stanley research document on my desk at work which has all the data in. I will share tomorrow. But my EUR900m could be out by a factor of 2.
I've just cross-posted with you.
However, EUR16bn is not the total size of the Cyriot banks balance sheets. That is the size of the *hole* in their accounts - i.e. the difference between assets and liabilities.
Total assets of the Cypriot banking systems are north of EUR80bn.
But I think this is the key line...
'Even before the Greek debt bombshell, Laiki Bank “was already in a bad way because of bad lending,” said Kikis Lazarides, a former chairman of the bank. But, he added, the write-down on Greek bonds “was more or less the killer blow.”'
Bank of Cyprus EBA report:
http://eba.europa.eu/capitalexercise2012/bank/EBA_RECAP_2012 CY007.pdf
Cyprus Popular Bank EBA report:
http://eba.europa.eu/capitalexercise2012/bank/EBA_RECAP_2012 CY006.pdf
It's a systemic problem.
*assets valued at boom prices even though they can only be sold at bust prices.
At least the Blessed Margaret knew when to stop making inflammatory comments in public.
Frank Field needs a fresh cup of tea, a pair of comfortable slippers and a warm winter fire.
PB Tories shall forgive the old boy. He was after all a treasure in his prime.