politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Three years after being touted as Iron Lady 2.0 Liz Truss (33-1) is well placed to succeed Dave
My long term bet, at 50/1, has been Liz Truss – who was one of the first of the class of GE10 to get a place in the cabinet. That was very important stepping stone. She’s now at 33/1.
Ooops, I almost forgot to mention, there is a pb-er concealed in The Ice Twins.
Yes. One of the characters is based on someone who posts here.
If anyone can guess who it is, I will send them a free copy, though of course, you'd probably have to buy a copy to guess in the first place.
Hmm, would we have to guess the pb-er and name the character based on them? Otherwise it'd be a bit easy to suggest, say, NPXMP and be done with it I suppose.
What's the strategy behind Cameron's "quit" announcement? To me it looks like a throw of the dice by the Tories.
It might win over some of those on the far reaches of the UKIP/Tory Right who see Cameron as some sort of "moderniser".
It might undermine the Tory attempts to make the election "presidential".
It might do nothing.
But it is, for certain, a sign that the Tories are desperate to engineer the "black swan event" they so desperately need. Like a gambler who puts his last tenner on a 50/1 shot on the final race.
He's more prominent than the other newbies, but not so much as to have actual baggage - seems promising.
Which senior has been or non-leadership contender will be pushing for Truss I wonder? I mean, isn't Javid supposed to be Osborne's choice because he would never make it as leader himself, so who fancies themselves the Cardinal Richelieu to Truss' Louis XIII?
Actually, ICE TWINS is probably the first novel I've written where my own character, opinions and attitudes are all completely absent. The fact it is also my best novel, by a distance, makes this rather double-edged.
I've actually bought T.I.T. on my Kindle and had planned to read it on a flight to San Fran today. But I tore all the ligaments in my left ankle, so I've not gone.
What's the strategy behind Cameron's "quit" announcement? To me it looks like a throw of the dice by the Tories.
It might win over some of those on the far reaches of the UKIP/Tory Right who see Cameron as some sort of "moderniser".
It might undermine the Tory attempts to make the election "presidential".
It might do nothing.
But it is, for certain, a sign that the Tories are desperate to engineer the "black swan event" they so desperately need. Like a gambler who puts his last tenner on a 50/1 shot on the final race.
You would have thought an Ed to head would have been a better bet for Cowardly
Ooops, I almost forgot to mention, there is a pb-er concealed in The Ice Twins.
Yes. One of the characters is based on someone who posts here.
If anyone can guess who it is, I will send them a free copy, though of course, you'd probably have to buy a copy to guess in the first place.
But there it is. Who is the mystery pb-er in S K Tremayne's The Ice Twins? And, perhaps more importantly, who will play him or her in the surely-inevitable movie?
If I were the mystery man, I would like to be played by Robert Redford, Sean Connery, Liam Neeson, Kevin Costner or Jeremy Irons.
He's more prominent than the other newbies, but not so much as to have actual baggage - seems promising.
Which senior has been or non-leadership contender will be pushing for Truss I wonder? I mean, isn't Javid supposed to be Osborne's choice because he would never make it as leader himself, so who fancies themselves the Cardinal Richelieu to Truss' Louis XIII?
It won't be Liz Truss, she's a former Lib Dem/SDP.
The next Tory will be a proper red blooded Tory that gives the Tory party the electoral horn
Oh dear, we're all trussed up on a thread by a lefty publication, hawking one of the worst types of tories. Maybe because the Statesman thinks that Truss is more like a born again socialist than a tory. OGH probably thinks that Truss is the answer for the L/Dems woes.
Speaking of reading, I was thinking of transitioning to e-books now I have once again run out of space for hard copies, even with divulging myself of a bunch of older books. Is a Kindle best, or are there better options for e-readers out there?
Actually, ICE TWINS is probably the first novel I've written where my own character, opinions and attitudes are all completely absent. The fact it is also my best novel, by a distance, makes this rather double-edged.
I've actually bought T.I.T. on my Kindle and had planned to read it on a flight to San Fran today. But I tore all the ligaments in my left ankle, so I've not gone.
And therefore not started on your book.
Sorry about your ankle. I don't know which Kindle model you have, but mine works on the ground as well as in the air.
Ooops, I almost forgot to mention, there is a pb-er concealed in The Ice Twins.
Yes. One of the characters is based on someone who posts here.
If anyone can guess who it is, I will send them a free copy, though of course, you'd probably have to buy a copy to guess in the first place.
Hmm, would we have to guess the pb-er and name the character based on them? Otherwise it'd be a bit easy to suggest, say, NPXMP and be done with it I suppose.
Yes, of course: you'd have to say "Ah, Hamish the mad Scottish boatman with incest issues is based on MalcolmG" - you can't just name a pb-er and hope to win the coconut.
What's the strategy behind Cameron's "quit" announcement? To me it looks like a throw of the dice by the Tories.
It might win over some of those on the far reaches of the UKIP/Tory Right who see Cameron as some sort of "moderniser".
It might undermine the Tory attempts to make the election "presidential".
It might do nothing.
But it is, for certain, a sign that the Tories are desperate to engineer the "black swan event" they so desperately need. Like a gambler who puts his last tenner on a 50/1 shot on the final race.
You would have thought an Ed to head would have been a better bet for Cowardly
No, he would have lost a debate with Ed, which is why he refused.
This way the Tories hope to create uncertainty and hope the pieces fall in their favour. It's all they have left, really.
You get the feeling Ed and Labour are so inept, they are going to run with posters saying
"Vote Dave, Get Boris"
On the other hand, "Vote Dave Get Osborne" could be quite the filip for Labour.
George Osborne is the most popular GB wide politician.
Again another winner
But the people who dislike him REALLY REALLY dislike him, he inspires the kind of hatred that Cameron doesn't.
Plus, people approving of the job he does as Chancellor is not necessarily the same as wanting him to be Prime Minister, with Brown being exhibit A of that.
What's the strategy behind Cameron's "quit" announcement? To me it looks like a throw of the dice by the Tories.
It might win over some of those on the far reaches of the UKIP/Tory Right who see Cameron as some sort of "moderniser".
It might undermine the Tory attempts to make the election "presidential".
It might do nothing.
But it is, for certain, a sign that the Tories are desperate to engineer the "black swan event" they so desperately need. Like a gambler who puts his last tenner on a 50/1 shot on the final race.
You would have thought an Ed to head would have been a better bet for Cowardly
No, he would have lost a debate with Ed, which is why he refused.
This way the Tories hope to create uncertainty and hope the pieces fall in their favour. It's all they have left, really.
Whilst we're talking about future leaders, I'm always thought Stella Creasy will go far. She seems to be the only member of the opposition team who can speak human and policy.
Ooops, I almost forgot to mention, there is a pb-er concealed in The Ice Twins.
Yes. One of the characters is based on someone who posts here.
If anyone can guess who it is, I will send them a free copy, though of course, you'd probably have to buy a copy to guess in the first place.
But there it is. Who is the mystery pb-er in S K Tremayne's The Ice Twins? And, perhaps more importantly, who will play him or her in the surely-inevitable movie?
Yes, I think I spotted it! I actually picked up a copy after someone recommended it on here but - and this is God's honest truth - didn't realize it was by you until the end where one of the characters uses one of your insults about female hygiene products. Good creepy stuff. I felt a bit unnerved over the four days I took to read it.
Given that pieces of art sell due to the name of the creator and rarity value rather than objective quality of the piece in question, as a piece of historical curiosity I would say it is likely a bargain.
Speaking of reading, I was thinking of transitioning to e-books now I have once again run out of space for hard copies, even with divulging myself of a bunch of older books. Is a Kindle best, or are there better options for e-readers out there?
If you get an iPad you get a Kindle PLUS it does everything a laptop and a smartphone will do, and you will wonder how you ever managed without it. But the glowing screen will feck with your sleeping patterns. Be warned.
I have Kindle on my Android phone, it means you always have books with even when you think you're unlikely to want one. A tablet seems to make more sense than a dedicated reader though.
Stella Creasey is great - came to Broxtowe and woke up a sleepy meeting with an hour of detailed, passionate argument of loan sharks and the like. Haven't had such enthused members for years (which tells you something about me, I guess).
Happy birthday, Josias and PB. FPT Josias: What do you make of C.J. Sansom's books? I like their spirit (humane, mildly pro-reform lawyer trying to survive the vicious current of reform and counter-reform) though I feel they've somewhat lost momentum in the latest one. I have no idea how accurate they are.
Ooops, I almost forgot to mention, there is a pb-er concealed in The Ice Twins.
Yes. One of the characters is based on someone who posts here.
If anyone can guess who it is, I will send them a free copy, though of course, you'd probably have to buy a copy to guess in the first place.
But there it is. Who is the mystery pb-er in S K Tremayne's The Ice Twins? And, perhaps more importantly, who will play him or her in the surely-inevitable movie?
If I were the mystery man, I would like to be played by Robert Redford, Sean Connery, Liam Neeson, Kevin Costner or Jeremy Irons.
- or of course, myself
If it were mean, I reserve the right to veto Hugh Grant as my actor...
Speaking of reading, I was thinking of transitioning to e-books now I have once again run out of space for hard copies, even with divulging myself of a bunch of older books. Is a Kindle best, or are there better options for e-readers out there?
If you specifically want an e-book reader then a Kindle is the best, and it is readable in anything from bright sunlight to pitch black.
As SeanT says, you can get the Kindle app on anything from an iPad to a smartphone or any other tablet. If you read a book on your (say) Android tablet, and then open it on another device, it will automatically take you to your current location in the book.
The other advantage of a Kindle (in my case the Paperwhite 2) is that it goes several weeks between charges.
Speaking of reading, I was thinking of transitioning to e-books now I have once again run out of space for hard copies, even with divulging myself of a bunch of older books. Is a Kindle best, or are there better options for e-readers out there?
If you get an iPad you get a Kindle PLUS it does everything a laptop and a smartphone will do, and you will wonder how you ever managed without it. But the glowing screen will feck with your sleeping patterns. Be warned.
I have Kindle on my Android phone, it means you always have books with even when you think you're unlikely to want one. A tablet seems to make more sense than a dedicated reader though.
Thing is, Kindles are so cheap you can risk reading them in the bath. Also much, much better for reading outdoors (eg on the beach)
I'd recommend a Kobo for ease of use and, in particular, the night light. It's great when I'm waiting for my son to drop off in a dark bedroom. But the Kobo bookstore is poorly designed.
Stella Creasey is great - came to Broxtowe and woke up a sleepy meeting with an hour of detailed, passionate argument of loan sharks and the like. Haven't had such enthused members for years (which tells you something about me, I guess).
Popular with the faitfhul, and with the opposition: as a card carrying Tory (albeit one who would have been a Bevanite in the 40s/50s - housing, jobs and cradle to grave security), she is the only Labour politician who would ever make me consider who should get my vote. Her crusade against payday loan companies was Beveridge-esque.
The point about the iron lady is the iron lady wasn't 'touted'. She was a surprise. So anyone being touted is by definition not the next Maggie.
Not sure that works. Maggie was elevated in an era before Twitter and 24 hour news.
These days everyone is touted at some point, such is the sheer volume of pointless online chatter and opinionating, much of it done here.
Fair point. But I would argue that the more someone is 'touted' the less valid their claim to be the next Maggie. She was the unexpected blade of a right wing insurgency, wielded by Airey Neave. I'm not sure the right has the power to mount one again, but if it does, there will be an Airey Neave behind it. Perhaps when Cameron is gone, Davis will get behind Priti Patel.
Raising VAT hits pensioners and poorest the hardest. That’s not the sort of government I will lead → pic.twitter.com/5kytVsJ9fJ
Labour have really been pushing VAT angle. I wonder if it is just part of Ed's made up Tory secret plan or if something has been leaked from the Treasury saying Osborne asked for impact assessment of raising VAT.
Remember Labour took this exact approach with the Pension bribes. They kept alluding to Tories would cut them if they got in power, when there was no evidence of any such policy, and of course most shameful of all the cancer leaflets.
This has just reminded me, I saw someone reading Mein Kampf on the train the other day! Most bizarre commuter reading I've ever come across!
The only book I was ever embarrassed about was 'Making Friends With Hitler'.
It is in fact an excellent biography of Lord Londonderry, but I always kept the title covered when passing through Golders Green.
It is a good biog - and in my naivety I've only just realised I was reading it whilst commuting to research NI newspapers at Colindale, via the Northern Line.
The e-ink screen is one of those things that looks like pure and total witchcraft when you first see it. Even though I knew exactly how it works my breath was still taken away the first time I saw an e-reader and that magical static screen.
OK ruling out one tax - how about ruling out no increases in income tax, corporation tax, capital gains tax, national insurance, inheritance tax - plenty to go at there
This has just reminded me, I saw someone reading Mein Kampf on the train the other day! Most bizarre commuter reading I've ever come across!
The only book I was ever embarrassed about was 'Making Friends With Hitler'.
It is in fact an excellent biography of Lord Londonderry, but I always kept the title covered when passing through Golders Green.
No attempt to hide the cover, a young professional getting off at Haymarket where all the financial people get off. I don't object particularly - things have to be read. I should get round to reading it myself some time, but I don't think I could do it cover to cover, or read it on a train.
Ooops, I almost forgot to mention, there is a pb-er concealed in The Ice Twins.
Yes. One of the characters is based on someone who posts here.
If anyone can guess who it is, I will send them a free copy, though of course, you'd probably have to buy a copy to guess in the first place.
But there it is. Who is the mystery pb-er in S K Tremayne's The Ice Twins? And, perhaps more importantly, who will play him or her in the surely-inevitable movie?
Yes, I think I spotted it! I actually picked up a copy after someone recommended it on here but - and this is God's honest truth - didn't realize it was by you until the end where one of the characters uses one of your insults about female hygiene products. Good creepy stuff. I felt a bit unnerved over the four days I took to read it.
Ta for reading! Glad you were slightly unnerved (if you know what I mean).
ON topic - ish - this is a weird TV biopic of Cameron. He comes over as a nice dad but a bit of an arrogant pillock. Not ghastly, but a little awkward. His wife seems much nicer, yet eerily like many people I know.
Blair did this stuff so much better.
If you watch an episode of Midsomer Murders they ARE John & Sarah Barnaby
OK ruling out one tax - how about ruling out no increases in income tax, corporation tax, capital gains tax, national insurance, inheritance tax - plenty to go at there
Haven't you heard, Ed Balls will magic everything away, with no cuts and balance the books with bankers bonus and mansion taxes.
Raising VAT hits pensioners and poorest the hardest. That’s not the sort of government I will lead → pic.twitter.com/5kytVsJ9fJ
Labour have really been pushing VAT angle. I wonder if it is just part of Ed's made up Tory secret plan or if something has been leaked from the Treasury saying Osborne asked for impact assessment of raising VAT.
Remember Labour took this exact approach with the Pension bribes. They kept alluding to Tories would cut them if they got in power, when there was no evidence of any such policy, and of course most shameful of all the cancer leaflets.
Simpler than that I think. It is now impossible for the Conservatives to rule out a VAT rise.
If they do then Labour point to 2010 and 1992 and call them liars, if they don't then Labour can harp on about secret plan.
God I hope someone like Truss doesn't find her way to the top. The epitome of a bland careerist wannabe. No political conviction in her entire make up, just a burning desire to be one of the kool kidz.
OK ruling out one tax - how about ruling out no increases in income tax, corporation tax, capital gains tax, national insurance, inheritance tax - plenty to go at there
Yep,tories should hit labour hard on this tomorrow but I have my doubts about the modern day con party if they up for the fight.
Ed Miliband @Ed_Miliband 1m1 minute ago Raising VAT hits pensioners and poorest the hardest. That’s not the sort of government I will lead →
New Labour Election Pledge launched
Meanwhile the Tories have no plans to raise VAT.
So presumably are planning to raise it as in 2010
Can you provide a single scrap of evidence that the Tories are considering a VAT rise after the election?
They have just produced a budget setting out expected spending plans and tax income together with OBR forecasts. Perhaps you can provide us with a link to that?
Comments
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CAz-C-vWQAAILNY.jpg
I missed the first 6 years
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0YxhIq6t6Fk
Harry Phibbs @harryph
Canvassing this evening in Hammersmith. Former Labour voters in ordinary terraced houses very angry about spiteful "Mansion Tax" proposal
It might win over some of those on the far reaches of the UKIP/Tory Right who see Cameron as some sort of "moderniser".
It might undermine the Tory attempts to make the election "presidential".
It might do nothing.
But it is, for certain, a sign that the Tories are desperate to engineer the "black swan event" they so desperately need. Like a gambler who puts his last tenner on a 50/1 shot on the final race.
Which senior has been or non-leadership contender will be pushing for Truss I wonder? I mean, isn't Javid supposed to be Osborne's choice because he would never make it as leader himself, so who fancies themselves the Cardinal Richelieu to Truss' Louis XIII?
And therefore not started on your book.
- or of course, myself
The next Tory will be a proper red blooded Tory that gives the Tory party the electoral horn
Did you find any cider yet? I saw Angry Orchard in my local today.
No Bulmer's, Coates or Strongbow I suspect
"Vote Dave, Get Boris"
Is from 2007, by Sion Simon, during the speculation about the election that never was.
'Shortly there will be an election, in which Labour will increase its majority'
http://www.newstatesman.com/blogs/conference/2007/09/labour-majority-increase
Unless they fancy losing for a while
Osborne too unlikeable
May too unattractive
Hammond too stiff
Javid too Muslim
Anyone wants to lay best price Boris I'll have £250
Again another winner
Nick Sutton ✔ @suttonnick
Tuesday's Telegraph front page -
Cameron: I won't go on and on
#tomorrowspaperstoday #bbcpapers #GE2015 pic.twitter.com/nRwJCuCEr1
This way the Tories hope to create uncertainty and hope the pieces fall in their favour. It's all they have left, really.
Plus, people approving of the job he does as Chancellor is not necessarily the same as wanting him to be Prime Minister, with Brown being exhibit A of that.
- and we're still finding new costs, deductibles and taxes from it.
The great fun of the site has been going against whatever has been the general narrative of the time.
Happy birthday, Josias and PB. FPT Josias: What do you make of C.J. Sansom's books? I like their spirit (humane, mildly pro-reform lawyer trying to survive the vicious current of reform and counter-reform) though I feel they've somewhat lost momentum in the latest one. I have no idea how accurate they are.
As SeanT says, you can get the Kindle app on anything from an iPad to a smartphone or any other tablet. If you read a book on your (say) Android tablet, and then open it on another device, it will automatically take you to your current location in the book.
The other advantage of a Kindle (in my case the Paperwhite 2) is that it goes several weeks between charges.
He won't be the next leader of the Tories. Want to lay Boris?
Raising VAT hits pensioners and poorest the hardest. That’s not the sort of government I will lead →
New Labour Election Pledge launched
Meanwhile the Tories have no plans to raise VAT.
So presumably are planning to raise it as in 2010
Guardian Politics ✔ @GdnPolitics
Labour to rule out VAT rise in election manifesto http://d.gu.com/950w2L
Ed Miliband ✔ @Ed_Miliband
Raising VAT hits pensioners and poorest the hardest. That’s not the sort of government I will lead → pic.twitter.com/5kytVsJ9fJ
It is in fact an excellent biography of Lord Londonderry, but I always kept the title covered when passing through Golders Green.
Remember Labour took this exact approach with the Pension bribes. They kept alluding to Tories would cut them if they got in power, when there was no evidence of any such policy, and of course most shameful of all the cancer leaflets.
Nor is the tories' darling Jeremy Clarkson, with his harmless banter about slopes, Pikeys and Irish cnts. Phew, again!
On that basis you will be a mere stripling youngster at 80 Mike.
Besides, you always have your fine Libertarian offspring to run things for you when you get too doddery :-)
Sadly it looks like it will be the only thing the Libertarians will ever run :-)
Who would have thought that!!
If they do then Labour point to 2010 and 1992 and call them liars, if they don't then Labour can harp on about secret plan.
Now we just need to try and dump several thousand more and the world will be a better place.
Like House of Cards meets the Thick of It
LOL....Mirror...ARROGANT CAMERON I WON'T DO 3RD TERM (in your dreams mate)...
I think even if no Tory spoke for a week, they would still spin that as "ARROGANT TORIES REFUSE TO SPEAK TO PLEBS".
They are as funny these days as the Daily Express front pages (for different reasons).
If they take Dudley North, they're looking at a majority of a hundred or so lol.
They have just produced a budget setting out expected spending plans and tax income together with OBR forecasts. Perhaps you can provide us with a link to that?