Cameron on the BBC saying he will serve a full 2nd term but not a 3rd
So he won't serve a full second term then. If he is not up for election he needs to hand over at least a year before so the new man or woman can get his or her legs under the desk. Looking increasingly academic tbh.
Cameron on the BBC saying he will serve a full 2nd term but not a 3rd
So he won't serve a full second term then. If he is not up for election he needs to hand over at least a year before so the new man or woman can get his or her legs under the desk. Looking increasingly academic tbh.
No, he said he will serve a full second term
Was a little 'at home w the Cameron's' on BBC news... They are so like the couple off midsomer murders it is uncanny... I was waiting for Sykes the dog to raise a quizzical eyebrow at his revelation!
Who but a Bullingdon Boy would announce his leadership intentions for 2020 when he hasn't even been elected in 2015? As a plebeian I often wonder how much further I could have gone with that sort of self assurance
Cameron on the BBC saying he will serve a full 2nd term but not a 3rd
So he won't serve a full second term then. If he is not up for election he needs to hand over at least a year before so the new man or woman can get his or her legs under the desk. Looking increasingly academic tbh.
No, he said he will serve a full second term
Was a little 'at home w the Cameron's' on BBC news... They are so like the couple off midsomer murders it is uncanny... I was waiting for Sykes the dog to raise a quizzical eyebrow at his revelation!
He can't serve a full second term though, can he? The Tories can't go into the next GE not being able to tell people who their PM will be if they win. They will have to have a leader in place.
Who but a Bullingdon Boy would announce his leadership intentions for 2020 when he hasn't even been elected in 2015? As a plebeian I often wonder how much further I could have gone with that sort of self assurance
Yes, just think, if your parents had been able to afford a decent school...
Not sure what Cameron thinks he's going to gain, strange move.
What did Mrs Thatcher gain from saying she was going to go on and on? What did Blair gain by being evasive. What would Cameron gain by lying about his intentions. What does the Conservative party gain by pretending the inevitable was not going to happen? Cameron has ensured that the referendum will be about the EU and not him. It is pretty clear that assuming a 2017 referendum then no matter what the result he will be retiring as PM. This is what I suggested a couple of days ago. That would be after 8 years as PM and 13 as Tory leader. Its plausible I suppose if the Conservative Party demands it he could stay on as say Foreign Secretary.
Security guards and bouncers are buying qualifications from the SIA that allow them to work in the uk
I suppose the qualifications were introduced to prevent people like these fellows that killed a friend of mine getting jobs. Now people are being talked through the exams for cash.
People grow weary of individual leaders and putting an end-date in means he can run on a mandate of finishing the job he started. It conveys a real sense of purpose about what he is there to do and that it is a time limited job that isn't going to drag on forever.
Once it's done, someone else can take the reins.
It also avoids the unelected coronation of someone who hasn't had a mandate.
Not sure what Cameron thinks he's going to gain, strange move.
I know this is hard to understand, but maybe he just answered the question without spin or obfuscation?
Maybe. But it's not going to happen. He can't serve a full second term and then stand-down. The Tories will need to have a new leader and PM in place - assuming they are in power - before the next GE.
Cameron on the BBC saying he will serve a full 2nd term but not a 3rd
So he won't serve a full second term then. If he is not up for election he needs to hand over at least a year before so the new man or woman can get his or her legs under the desk. Looking increasingly academic tbh.
I agree - he can be cagey about the exact date because we do not know what the EU timetable will be or when the next election might be but he will retire/resign before the election. Given the furore over Brown it might only be 6 months but I think that was all political grist to the mill. 18 months would be quite acceptable.
Cameron on the BBC saying he will serve a full 2nd term but not a 3rd
So he won't serve a full second term then. If he is not up for election he needs to hand over at least a year before so the new man or woman can get his or her legs under the desk. Looking increasingly academic tbh.
No, he said he will serve a full second term
Was a little 'at home w the Cameron's' on BBC news... They are so like the couple off midsomer murders it is uncanny... I was waiting for Sykes the dog to raise a quizzical eyebrow at his revelation!
He can't serve a full second term though, can he? The Tories can't go into the next GE not being able to tell people who their PM will be if they win. They will have to have a leader in place.
Don't know, but that is what he said
I suppose he could stand down around this time with the new person ready to fight the campaign?
Who but a Bullingdon Boy would announce his leadership intentions for 2020 when he hasn't even been elected in 2015? As a plebeian I often wonder how much further I could have gone with that sort of self assurance
So the voters know what they are getting when they vote for him?
Cameron on the BBC saying he will serve a full 2nd term but not a 3rd
So he won't serve a full second term then. If he is not up for election he needs to hand over at least a year before so the new man or woman can get his or her legs under the desk. Looking increasingly academic tbh.
No, he said he will serve a full second term
Was a little 'at home w the Cameron's' on BBC news... They are so like the couple off midsomer murders it is uncanny... I was waiting for Sykes the dog to raise a quizzical eyebrow at his revelation!
He can't serve a full second term though, can he? The Tories can't go into the next GE not being able to tell people who their PM will be if they win. They will have to have a leader in place.
Don't know, but that is what he said
I suppose he could stand down around this time with the new person ready to fight the campaign?
He could do, but that is taking a very big risk and the voters for granted. Whatever happens, though, it means we are going to get George v Boris v Therese until Dave does stand down. Should be fun.
Not sure what Cameron thinks he's going to gain, strange move.
I know this is hard to understand, but maybe he just answered the question without spin or obfuscation?
Maybe. But it's not going to happen. He can't serve a full second term and then stand-down. The Tories will need to have a new leader and PM in place - assuming they are in power - before the next GE.
Well, in principle there's no reason why there shouldn't be a leadership contest towards the end of the parliamentary term with the new leader taking office immediately after the election, but I think what he meant was substantially the full term, so presumably with the new leader taking office shortly before the election.
Edit: Come to think of it, there's no reason why the Conservative Party shouldn't elect a new leader in the months leading up to the election, with Cameron remaining PM but not party leader for the last few weeks.
Not sure what Cameron thinks he's going to gain, strange move.
It feels like he just answered the question. It just seems strange because we're not used to it after seeing him avoid doing that once a week for the last five years.
Afternoon all and looking at the target seats, of the top 50 Labour target seats, the Ashcroft seat polls have the Tories holding 11 of them. Just cannot see where Labour would get those 50 gains from.
Those are how much better the Tories did against Labour in the actual elections compared to the good Lord's polls.
In marginals polls, yes. But national polls have a much larger sample size and lower margin of error.
One does has to be careful of confirmation bias but I do wonder about his marginals polls. If the Tories are generally understated by 2%, and Labour struggles to convert all the disillusioned Lib Dem votes into actual votes cast for them on the day, then seats where he currently shows Labour leads of 5-6% might turn out to be narrow Tory holds on the day.
Ashcroft is also not naming the party candidates, which may also have some small effect on the result.
Afternoon all and looking at the target seats, of the top 50 Labour target seats, the Ashcroft seat polls have the Tories holding 11 of them. Just cannot see where Labour would get those 50 gains from.
Well he hasn't taken the mick w the over round so that's one good thing to say
Given that people will surely vote for their man, and everyone hates Ukip, isn't farage much too short? It's the yougov panel in charge of this right ?
Would've thought the value is to back ed and Dave at 6/5 if that's so
Well he hasn't taken the mick w the over round so that's one good thing to say
Given that people will surely vote for their man, and everyone hates Ukip, isn't farage much too short? It's the yougov panel in charge of this right ?
It's the YouGov panel. I've placed my bet and I'm just writing up a post on this subject.
Nigel Farage is a bit too short in my opinion, but not too much so. There is, however, one candidate who is way too short in my view.
Cameron is decent value for the debate considering his high ratings with YouGov and that if it turns into a series of short political statements, people will just vote tribally. I think Farage will win though.
Afternoon all and looking at the target seats, of the top 50 Labour target seats, the Ashcroft seat polls have the Tories holding 11 of them. Just cannot see where Labour would get those 50 gains from.
Well he hasn't taken the mick w the over round so that's one good thing to say
Given that people will surely vote for their man, and everyone hates Ukip, isn't farage much too short? It's the yougov panel in charge of this right ?
Would've thought the value is to back ed and Dave at 6/5 if that's so
Tricky one - the key thing is that the 'winner' is usually defined by exceeding expectations. I agree Farage is too short because everyone will be expecting him to do well. My hunch (and I stress it's no more than that) is Nicola on 8/1
Well he hasn't taken the mick w the over round so that's one good thing to say
Given that people will surely vote for their man, and everyone hates Ukip, isn't farage much too short? It's the yougov panel in charge of this right ?
It's the YouGov panel. I've placed my bet and I'm just writing up a post on this subject.
Nigel Farage is a bit too short in my opinion, but not too much so. There is, however, one candidate who is way too short in my view.
Well he hasn't taken the mick w the over round so that's one good thing to say
Given that people will surely vote for their man, and everyone hates Ukip, isn't farage much too short? It's the yougov panel in charge of this right ?
It's the YouGov panel. I've placed my bet and I'm just writing up a post on this subject.
Nigel Farage is a bit too short in my opinion, but not too much so. There is, however, one candidate who is way too short in my view.
Miliband.
And pretty sure Clegg won't be declared the winner even if he wiped the floor with the rest.
Afternoon all and looking at the target seats, of the top 50 Labour target seats, the Ashcroft seat polls have the Tories holding 11 of them. Just cannot see where Labour would get those 50 gains from.
11 from the next 50 !!!!!!!!!!!
Lab gains count double though see last thread
So, a bit like away goals then?
Indeed Lab gain from Con makes a 2 seat difference.
Lab loss to SNP counts as -1 or I would argue zero
It has always been my impression that the degree of processing involved in whiskey production would tend to obviate any advantages from producing it in a particular geography. I wouldn't think the same of wine, since there is relatively little done to wine apart from letting it age. With whiskey the choices made by the distillers must have more bearing on the end result than minor differences in the ingredients used.
In consequence there seems no obvious reason why whiskey should be any better from one location than another.
Is that about right? Whiskey is a hobby I intend to take up in retirement and while I've been to whiskey tastings where very marked differences in flavour were apparent, there was no suggestion that it was the ingredients rather than the process had achieved this.
First off, learn to spell it.
Secondly the local water makes a difference.
Scotchmen don't own the spelling. It comes from the Gaelic word uisge which one may transliterate as one likes. I could spell it wisci if it suited me. I used the spelling in the initial post.
The local water? Is the suggestion then that if you used water from Cornwall to make Irish whiskey, and alongside it you made otherwise identical Irish whiskey, a whiskey pseud could tell them apart? Has that ever been demonstrated?
It'd partly depend on the volatiles in the water used for distilling, and also the solid non-volatile content of the water used for later dilution, and their interaction with the other ingredients. So partly on the peatbogs and partly on the local geology. But very much on the individual still and the distilling.
Whisky = Scots, Whiskey = Irish, or for that matter Appalachian IIRC, by well-established convention. It causes confusion to adopt an alternative usage, so deliberate flouting might just possibly be seen as ill-mannered to your readership.
Anyway, here is a constructive suggestion: look into the Scots Malt Whisky Society. My dad is a member, to our mutual pleasure. (But you need to google with the correct spellings ...).
It's actually the Scotch Malt Whisky Society.
So it is - thank you: I was mulling too much on the joys of the numbered cask bottles ...
I have a superb Glenfarclas, Family Cask 1991 , cask 5691 just now. It is magnificent.Probably best I have tasted, special from the Whisky shop in Dufftown.
Not sure what Cameron thinks he's going to gain, strange move.
I know this is hard to understand, but maybe he just answered the question without spin or obfuscation?
Maybe. But it's not going to happen. He can't serve a full second term and then stand-down. The Tories will need to have a new leader and PM in place - assuming they are in power - before the next GE.
Well, in principle there's no reason why there shouldn't be a leadership contest towards the end of the parliamentary term with the new leader taking office immediately after the election, but I think what he meant was substantially the full term, so presumably with the new leader taking office shortly before the election.
Edit: Come to think of it, there's no reason why the Conservative Party shouldn't elect a new leader in the months leading up to the election, with Cameron remaining PM but not party leader for the last few weeks.
He can try to do that, of course. Not sure that voters will be that keen. When was the last time the PM was not his/her party's leader?
Well he hasn't taken the mick w the over round so that's one good thing to say
Given that people will surely vote for their man, and everyone hates Ukip, isn't farage much too short? It's the yougov panel in charge of this right ?
Would've thought the value is to back ed and Dave at 6/5 if that's so
Tricky one - the key thing is that the 'winner' is usually defined by exceeding expectations. I agree Farage is too short because everyone will be expecting him to do well. My hunch (and I stress it's no more than that) is Nicola on 8/1
I like Lianne Wood. She's long because no one has heard of her, and she's a Welsh nationalist so might not get much recognition, but if she comes across as likeable, sensible and pleasant. Who knows?
Jonathan No, Cameron could serve a full term and let a new party leader be elected just before the election, as happens in the US when presidents remain in office despite their party picking a new presidential candidate in their final term. Indeed, in Spain in 2004 Aznar remained PM though Rajoy was the party's candidate for PM at the election, while in 2011 Zapatero also remained PM while Rubalcaba was the party's PM candidate and party leader
Well he hasn't taken the mick w the over round so that's one good thing to say
Given that people will surely vote for their man, and everyone hates Ukip, isn't farage much too short? It's the yougov panel in charge of this right ?
It's the YouGov panel. I've placed my bet and I'm just writing up a post on this subject.
Nigel Farage is a bit too short in my opinion, but not too much so. There is, however, one candidate who is way too short in my view.
Miliband.
And pretty sure Clegg won't be declared the winner even if he wiped the floor with the rest.
I'd have thought Clegg was too short... Lib dems on 5-6% and half of them hate him
Miliband and Cameron have 63-70% of the YG panel between them and are only 45% of the betting market so I reckon backing those two is ok
He can try to do that, of course. Not sure that voters will be that keen. When was the last time the PM was not his/her party's leader?
It's unusual in the UK, but I don't see why it shouldn't work, if that really is what Cameron meant. (It would work particularly well in a coalition, of course). It would be presented as an orderly transition, just as when a big company announces a new chief-executive-elect.
Not sure what Cameron thinks he's going to gain, strange move.
I know this is hard to understand, but maybe he just answered the question without spin or obfuscation?
Maybe. But it's not going to happen. He can't serve a full second term and then stand-down. The Tories will need to have a new leader and PM in place - assuming they are in power - before the next GE.
Edit: Come to think of it, there's no reason why the Conservative Party shouldn't elect a new leader in the months leading up to the election, with Cameron remaining PM but not party leader for the last few weeks.
No reason except they would not stand for it. I am certain that the potential other leaders would scramble around and force Cameron aside well before then, particularly given in this scenario the planned referendum gives a handy excuse for him to stand aside, win or lose. I don't think the egos would permit them to risk a rival getting the jump on them and not force him aside before then, and we've seen tactically they are not stellar.
He can try to do that, of course. Not sure that voters will be that keen. When was the last time the PM was not his/her party's leader?
It's unusual in the UK, but I don't see why it shouldn't work, if that really is what Cameron meant. (It would work particularly well in a coalition, of course). It would be presented as an orderly transition, just as when a big company announces a new chief-executive-elect.
It's no different to what would happen in the USA is it?
Considering Cameron is by common consent one of the few trump cards the Tories have, I really can't see the logic of this. People see him as moderating the nasty Tories from cutting spending even more than they'd otherwise want to.
If Labour have any sense, they'll start pushing a meme of how the Tories getting in again risks Osborne becoming PM. Whatever his ratings say, the people who hate Osborne still REALLY hate him.
Who but a Bullingdon Boy would announce his leadership intentions for 2020 when he hasn't even been elected in 2015? As a plebeian I often wonder how much further I could have gone with that sort of self assurance
Yes, just think, if your parents had been able to afford a decent school...
Who but a Bullingdon Boy would announce his leadership intentions for 2020 when he hasn't even been elected in 2015? As a plebeian I often wonder how much further I could have gone with that sort of self assurance
A Fettes man? In all seriousness it does seem an odd move though. In media world the general assumption seems to be that he would probably go after the Euro ref 2017 but its never entered the public consciousness. Obviously a mistake when Blair did it, seems the same again.
Jonathan No, Cameron could serve a full term and let a new party leader be elected just before the election, as happens in the US when presidents remain in office despite their party picking a new presidential candidate in their final term. Indeed, in Spain in 2004 Aznar remained PM though Rajoy was the party's candidate for PM at the election, while in 2011 Zapatero also remained PM while Rubalcaba was the party's PM candidate and party leader
It doesn't work that way in practice as Blair proved. Possible successors will now be counting down to the day, positioning against rivals promoting their own success above the party. A moment of difficulty will come, where it might suit one to challenge earlier.
Cameron would be very unlikely to get past the EU referendum IMO.
Tim Bouverie (@TimPBouverie) 23/03/2015 18:25 Webcameron in which PM said that Blair pre-announcing resignation was "absolute killer" appears to have been removed from internet
Tim Bouverie (@TimPBouverie) 23/03/2015 18:25 Webcameron in which PM said that Blair pre-announcing resignation was "absolute killer" appears to have been removed from internet
Well my blue Monday theory has taken a bit of a beating today. If they follow the normal pattern and fall off from here for the rest of the week some of those on Tory most seats are going to start to panic.
Tom Newton Dunn (@tnewtondunn) 23/03/2015 18:02 A rare Cameron TV gaffe... has ruled out serving a third term (ie 2020-25) to @BBCJLandale, but No10 now say that's not what he meant.
How about a bit of balance Mr Smithson. Been out all day, but surely a Labour MP calling Ed"" "a FUCKING KNOB" who is costing us votes across the country"" is worth a thread ???
HOw about a bit of balance Mr Smithson. Been out all day, but Surely a Labour MP calling Ed "a FUCKING KNOB"who is costing us votes across the country is worth a thread ???
Well he hasn't taken the mick w the over round so that's one good thing to say
Given that people will surely vote for their man, and everyone hates Ukip, isn't farage much too short? It's the yougov panel in charge of this right ?
Would've thought the value is to back ed and Dave at 6/5 if that's so
Tricky one - the key thing is that the 'winner' is usually defined by exceeding expectations. I agree Farage is too short because everyone will be expecting him to do well. My hunch (and I stress it's no more than that) is Nicola on 8/1
The Nats have 100,000 very motivated members - I can see them all hammering the votes out for her just after the debate.
HOw about a bit of balance Mr Smithson. Been out all day, but Surely a Labour MP calling Ed "a FUCKING KNOB"who is costing us votes across the country is worth a thread ???
Well he hasn't taken the mick w the over round so that's one good thing to say
Given that people will surely vote for their man, and everyone hates Ukip, isn't farage much too short? It's the yougov panel in charge of this right ?
Would've thought the value is to back ed and Dave at 6/5 if that's so
Tricky one - the key thing is that the 'winner' is usually defined by exceeding expectations. I agree Farage is too short because everyone will be expecting him to do well. My hunch (and I stress it's no more than that) is Nicola on 8/1
I like Lianne Wood. She's long because no one has heard of her, and she's a Welsh nationalist so might not get much recognition, but if she comes across as likeable, sensible and pleasant. Who knows?
The polls suggest Plaid aren't doing too well here in Wales. I don't think she's made a huge impact. She's not typical Plaid being a valleys person and a welsh language 'learner' which seemed like a smart move to try and take Labour on in their own turf. Don't think they've had much success yet.
Well he hasn't taken the mick w the over round so that's one good thing to say
Given that people will surely vote for their man, and everyone hates Ukip, isn't farage much too short? It's the yougov panel in charge of this right ?
Would've thought the value is to back ed and Dave at 6/5 if that's so
Tricky one - the key thing is that the 'winner' is usually defined by exceeding expectations. I agree Farage is too short because everyone will be expecting him to do well. My hunch (and I stress it's no more than that) is Nicola on 8/1
The Nats have 100,000 very motivated members - I can see them all hammering the votes out for her just after the debate.
Considering Cameron is by common consent one of the few trump cards the Tories have, I really can't see the logic of this. People see him as moderating the nasty Tories from cutting spending even more than they'd otherwise want to.
If Labour have any sense, they'll start pushing a meme of how the Tories getting in again risks Osborne becoming PM. Whatever his ratings say, the people who hate Osborne still REALLY hate him.
I thought PM`s also have to have a good head of hair, like Cameron and Milliband. Osborne`s even with a change of style is waving goodbye.
Looks like Boris Johnson would be a better bet for Conservative Leader.
Well he hasn't taken the mick w the over round so that's one good thing to say
Given that people will surely vote for their man, and everyone hates Ukip, isn't farage much too short? It's the yougov panel in charge of this right ?
Would've thought the value is to back ed and Dave at 6/5 if that's so
Tricky one - the key thing is that the 'winner' is usually defined by exceeding expectations. I agree Farage is too short because everyone will be expecting him to do well. My hunch (and I stress it's no more than that) is Nicola on 8/1
The Nats have 100,000 very motivated members - I can see them all hammering the votes out for her just after the debate.
It's going to be done by YouGov poll.
YG leader ratings, if there are such a thing, would be the best guide.
Well he hasn't taken the mick w the over round so that's one good thing to say
Given that people will surely vote for their man, and everyone hates Ukip, isn't farage much too short? It's the yougov panel in charge of this right ?
Would've thought the value is to back ed and Dave at 6/5 if that's so
Tricky one - the key thing is that the 'winner' is usually defined by exceeding expectations. I agree Farage is too short because everyone will be expecting him to do well. My hunch (and I stress it's no more than that) is Nicola on 8/1
I like Lianne Wood. She's long because no one has heard of her, and she's a Welsh nationalist so might not get much recognition, but if she comes across as likeable, sensible and pleasant. Who knows?
I know. I live here. I simply cannot see her coming over well.
All the more reputable pollsters that report the Midlands separately have the Tories 6-9 ahead across half a dozen poll averages.
They all have Labour 13-17 points clear oop North.
Piling up Lib Dem votes in places they've already won?
So it would seem.
Baxtering the Lord Ashcroft National Figures (C33,L33, LD7, SNP6, UKIP 13, Green 5) with Scottish figures ( C17, L20, LD4, SNP56, UKIP 1 GN 1gives:
LABOUR 38 SHORT OF MAJORITY
C 269 L 288 LD 11 UKIP 0 Gn 1 SNP 59 PC 4 Minor 0 NI 18
Baxtering the lord archer national (33,33,7) plus regional figures (inc SNP+PC) in Baxters User-defined Regional Poll page and equating Baxters Regions to Ashcrofts Regions as shown below:
Southeast = London, Southeast, Anglia Southwest & Wales Midlands = East & West Midlands North = North West, North East, Yorkshire & Humber Scotland
Equivalent National
Con 33.7 Lab 33.2 Lib 7.2
Gives CONSERVATIVES 42 SHORT OF MAJORITY
C 284 L 265 LD 7 SNP 59 PC 3 Minor 14 (ie UKIP + Respect + Green etc) NI 18
Well he hasn't taken the mick w the over round so that's one good thing to say
Given that people will surely vote for their man, and everyone hates Ukip, isn't farage much too short? It's the yougov panel in charge of this right ?
Would've thought the value is to back ed and Dave at 6/5 if that's so
Tricky one - the key thing is that the 'winner' is usually defined by exceeding expectations. I agree Farage is too short because everyone will be expecting him to do well. My hunch (and I stress it's no more than that) is Nicola on 8/1
The Nats have 100,000 very motivated members - I can see them all hammering the votes out for her just after the debate.
It's going to be done by YouGov poll.
Well Sturgeon could still hoover the left wing vote
I'm surprised MikeK hasn't asked why the powers that be haven't put a member of the hassidim on Channel 4 News to match Fatima who is doing her bit for Islam
Who but a Bullingdon Boy would announce his leadership intentions for 2020 when he hasn't even been elected in 2015? As a plebeian I often wonder how much further I could have gone with that sort of self assurance
A Fettes man? In all seriousness it does seem an odd move though. In media world the general assumption seems to be that he would probably go after the Euro ref 2017 but its never entered the public consciousness. Obviously a mistake when Blair did it, seems the same again.
It was not "obviously a mistake" since Blair was so unpopular by then that the Conservatives had to drop their "vote Blair: get Brown" line.
All the more reputable pollsters that report the Midlands separately have the Tories 6-9 ahead across half a dozen poll averages.
They all have Labour 13-17 points clear oop North.
Piling up Lib Dem votes in places they've already won?
So it would seem.
Baxtering the Lord Ashcroft National Figures (C33,L33, LD7, SNP6, UKIP 13, Green 5) with Scottish figures ( C17, L20, LD4, SNP56, UKIP 1 GN 1gives:
LABOUR 38 SHORT OF MAJORITY
C 269 L 288 LD 11 UKIP 0 Gn 1 SNP 59 PC 4 Minor 0 NI 18
Baxtering the lord archer national (33,33,7) plus regional figures (inc SNP+PC) in Baxters User-defined Regional Poll page and equating Baxters Regions to Ashcrofts Regions as shown below:
Southeast = London, Southeast, Anglia Southwest & Wales Midlands = East & West Midlands North = North West, North East, Yorkshire & Humber Scotland
Equivalent National
Con 33.7 Lab 33.2 Lib 7.2
Gives CONSERVATIVES 42 SHORT OF MAJORITY
C 284 L 265 LD 7 SNP 59 PC 3 Minor 14 (ie UKIP + Respect + Green etc) NI 18
Ed has won if those are the final numbers, but my God it'll be an awful victory !
I know what you're all thinking... what more could I possibly have to say about Spanish politics?
Yesterday was not just French council elections, it was also the elections to the Andalucian parliament in Spain - a poor southern region and a one time socialist bastion.
Was this going to be Podemos's night?
No: or rather, Podemos did ok (14.8%), but in an area where they should have performed very strongly. Citizens stood in regional elections outside Catalonia for the first time, and pulled in a very credible 9.3%. The Socialists did surprisingly well, just dropping 4% from 2012, while the PP was the big loser, dropping 14% to 26.8%.
The non Socialist Party, but still left wing, vote seems to have splintered in the last six months in Spain, perhaps due to the disaster in Greece, with Podemos having lost a chunk of its support to Citizens.
I've listened to you all and gone £5 Nicola, £10 Dave.
The SNP is simply too minority. My feeling of post debate polling is, barring an absolute smashing like the second Indy Ref debate or a incredibly skewed panel like the ORC/CNN Obama-Romeny poll (it consisted entirely of old, rich, white southeners) post debate polls breaks strictly on party lines.
Cameron is the smart choice I think at those odds. My reference for this is the 3rd leader debate from the last election - I thought Cameron came 3rd with an ineffectual performance
The ICM Poll had it 35,29,27 for Cameron, Brown, Clegg The general election was 36,29,23
Well he hasn't taken the mick w the over round so that's one good thing to say
Given that people will surely vote for their man, and everyone hates Ukip, isn't farage much too short? It's the yougov panel in charge of this right ?
Would've thought the value is to back ed and Dave at 6/5 if that's so
Tricky one - the key thing is that the 'winner' is usually defined by exceeding expectations. I agree Farage is too short because everyone will be expecting him to do well. My hunch (and I stress it's no more than that) is Nicola on 8/1
I like Lianne Wood. She's long because no one has heard of her, and she's a Welsh nationalist so might not get much recognition, but if she comes across as likeable, sensible and pleasant. Who knows?
Comments
Was a little 'at home w the Cameron's' on BBC news... They are so like the couple off midsomer murders it is uncanny... I was waiting for Sykes the dog to raise a quizzical eyebrow at his revelation!
Anyway, it was a nice full 10 mins all on Cameron - can only help.
What did Blair gain by being evasive.
What would Cameron gain by lying about his intentions.
What does the Conservative party gain by pretending the inevitable was not going to happen?
Cameron has ensured that the referendum will be about the EU and not him.
It is pretty clear that assuming a 2017 referendum then no matter what the result he will be retiring as PM. This is what I suggested a couple of days ago. That would be after 8 years as PM and 13 as Tory leader.
Its plausible I suppose if the Conservative Party demands it he could stay on as say Foreign Secretary.
I suppose the qualifications were introduced to prevent people like these fellows that killed a friend of mine getting jobs. Now people are being talked through the exams for cash.
Prog on bbc1 later
http://www.barkinganddagenhampost.co.uk/news/doormen_cleared_over_clubber_killing_1_573773
People grow weary of individual leaders and putting an end-date in means he can run on a mandate of finishing the job he started. It conveys a real sense of purpose about what he is there to do and that it is a time limited job that isn't going to drag on forever.
Once it's done, someone else can take the reins.
It also avoids the unelected coronation of someone who hasn't had a mandate.
I suppose he could stand down around this time with the new person ready to fight the campaign?
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-32022484
Must be a slip of the forked tongue.
Edit: Come to think of it, there's no reason why the Conservative Party shouldn't elect a new leader in the months leading up to the election, with Cameron remaining PM but not party leader for the last few weeks.
http://sportsbeta.ladbrokes.com/TV-Debates/7-Way-Live-TV-Debate/Politics-N-1z124w7Z1z0ql15Z1z141ng/
http://www.dailyrecord.co.uk/news/politics/ed-miliband-begs-scots-support-5386461
One does has to be careful of confirmation bias but I do wonder about his marginals polls. If the Tories are generally understated by 2%, and Labour struggles to convert all the disillusioned Lib Dem votes into actual votes cast for them on the day, then seats where he currently shows Labour leads of 5-6% might turn out to be narrow Tory holds on the day.
Ashcroft is also not naming the party candidates, which may also have some small effect on the result.
But what an amazing own goal! Vote Dave, get (insert unpopular Tory politician of choice).
Given that people will surely vote for their man, and everyone hates Ukip, isn't farage much too short? It's the yougov panel in charge of this right ?
Would've thought the value is to back ed and Dave at 6/5 if that's so
Nigel Farage is a bit too short in my opinion, but not too much so. There is, however, one candidate who is way too short in my view.
Lab loss to SNP counts as -1 or I would argue zero
Miliband and Cameron have 63-70% of the YG panel between them and are only 45% of the betting market so I reckon backing those two is ok
http://newstonoone.blogspot.com/2015/03/laugh-about-it-shout-about-it-when.html
If Labour have any sense, they'll start pushing a meme of how the Tories getting in again risks Osborne becoming PM. Whatever his ratings say, the people who hate Osborne still REALLY hate him.
Cameron would be very unlikely to get past the EU referendum IMO.
23/03/2015 18:25
Webcameron in which PM said that Blair pre-announcing resignation was "absolute killer" appears to have been removed from internet
23/03/2015 18:02
A rare Cameron TV gaffe... has ruled out serving a third term (ie 2020-25) to @BBCJLandale, but No10 now say that's not what he meant.
https://www.google.co.uk/search?sourceid=navclient&aq=&oq=&ie=UTF-8&rlz=1T4SUNC_enGB361GB361&q=ed+miliband+is+a+'f******+knob'+who+costs+us+votes+across+the+country,+blasts+labour+mp+simon&gs_l=hp..0.41l69.0.0.0.2377...........0.
There is still time!
Love him or loathe him Ali Campbell's a classy commentator
Osborne`s even with a change of style is waving goodbye.
Looks like Boris Johnson would be a better bet for Conservative Leader.
Baxtering the Lord Ashcroft National Figures (C33,L33, LD7, SNP6, UKIP 13, Green 5) with Scottish figures ( C17, L20, LD4, SNP56, UKIP 1 GN 1gives:
LABOUR 38 SHORT OF MAJORITY
C 269
L 288
LD 11
UKIP 0
Gn 1
SNP 59
PC 4
Minor 0
NI 18
Baxtering the lord archer national (33,33,7) plus regional figures (inc SNP+PC) in Baxters User-defined Regional Poll page and equating Baxters Regions to Ashcrofts Regions as shown below:
Southeast = London, Southeast, Anglia
Southwest & Wales
Midlands = East & West Midlands
North = North West, North East, Yorkshire & Humber
Scotland
Equivalent National
Con 33.7
Lab 33.2
Lib 7.2
Gives CONSERVATIVES 42 SHORT OF MAJORITY
C 284
L 265
LD 7
SNP 59
PC 3
Minor 14 (ie UKIP + Respect + Green etc)
NI 18
"Jon Snow calling Thatcher 'bonkers' in poor taste I think"
Accuracy always trumps good taste
What could go wrong?
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-london-31876590
I know what you're all thinking... what more could I possibly have to say about Spanish politics?
Yesterday was not just French council elections, it was also the elections to the Andalucian parliament in Spain - a poor southern region and a one time socialist bastion.
Was this going to be Podemos's night?
No: or rather, Podemos did ok (14.8%), but in an area where they should have performed very strongly. Citizens stood in regional elections outside Catalonia for the first time, and pulled in a very credible 9.3%. The Socialists did surprisingly well, just dropping 4% from 2012, while the PP was the big loser, dropping 14% to 26.8%.
The non Socialist Party, but still left wing, vote seems to have splintered in the last six months in Spain, perhaps due to the disaster in Greece, with Podemos having lost a chunk of its support to Citizens.
Cameron is the smart choice I think at those odds. My reference for this is the 3rd leader debate from the last election - I thought Cameron came 3rd with an ineffectual performance
The ICM Poll had it 35,29,27 for Cameron, Brown, Clegg
The general election was 36,29,23
https://twitter.com/montie/status/580090429053530112/photo/1
Impressive dad dancing.