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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » LAB draws level with CON in this week’s Ashcroft phone poll – so another pollster fails to record a budget bounce

@LordAshcroft poll ENGLAND ONLY shares
CON 36
LAB 33
LD 8
UKIP 14
GN 6
So a 4.7% CON to LAB swing since GE10 on UNS = 50 LAB English gains

Read the full story here

SandyRentool

Where is everyone?

Gadfly

I don't believe that Osborne ever sought a budget bounce. A give-away would have been difficult to defend, and the budget he delivered shot a few of Labour's arguments for the weeks ahead.

SimonStClare

FPT

Blimey, not every day that The Wurzels comes up in conversation..!

Tykejohnno

SandyRentool said:

Where is everyone?

Alot fed up with these labour leads ;-)

SMukesh

Nowcast.

50 Con gains+10 Lib Gains-30 SNP loss-5 Con gains+258=283 for Lab

15 Lib Gains+5 Lab gains-50 Lab loss+306=276 for Con.

Sunil_Prasannan

Sunil Prasannan ‏@Sunil_P2 · 2m2 minutes ago
The Rise and Fall (possibly?) of UKIP? Their weekly % scores in ELBOW since August. W/e 22nd March = 13.9%
https://twitter.com/Sunil_P2/status/580042589073707008

Tykejohnno

Or should I say,no tory leads from Ashcroft poll,where's the bounce?

Scott_P

@alexsmith1982: Much of the silliness of politics and perception rolled into one screen grab. http://t.co/OMphllQFiq (via @AdamBienkov).

rcs1000

Sunil_Prasannan said:

Sunil Prasannan ‏@Sunil_P2 · 2m2 minutes ago
The Rise and Fall (possibly?) of UKIP? Their weekly % scores in ELBOW since August. W/e 22nd March = 13.9%
https://twitter.com/Sunil_P2/status/580042589073707008

The decline of UKIP is very bad for the LibDems. They need UKIP to be as high as possible to minimise the Con/Lab vote share in seats where they are strong.

Roger

A labour lead and suddenly it's like Aberdeen on flag day

MikeL

How has 4.7% swing been calculated?

2010 Con lead in England 11.5% per BBC

(11.5-3)/2 = 4.25% swing - not a big difference but enough for a few seats.

Scott_P

@SamCoatesTimes: (Phone battery went dead).
Paxman asked to name leaders whose TV performances he admired / rated. Names Hammond, Hague, Cameron.

@SamCoatesTimes: ... When it's pointed out that he forgot Ed Miliband, Paxman replied: "How astute" (to notice).

Luckyguy1983

Carnyx said:

Bond_James_Bond said:

Ishmael_X said:

Bond_James_Bond said:

Alanbrooke said:

2015s best whiskey comes from Taiwan. Not sure if I feel good or bad about that.

http://www.scotsman.com/lifestyle/heritage/taiwan-whisky-beats-scotch-to-top-award-1-3725944

Can any whiskey lovers opine?

It has always been my impression that the degree of processing involved in whiskey production would tend to obviate any advantages from producing it in a particular geography. I wouldn't think the same of wine, since there is relatively little done to wine apart from letting it age. With whiskey the choices made by the distillers must have more bearing on the end result than minor differences in the ingredients used.

In consequence there seems no obvious reason why whiskey should be any better from one location than another.

Is that about right? Whiskey is a hobby I intend to take up in retirement and while I've been to whiskey tastings where very marked differences in flavour were apparent, there was no suggestion that it was the ingredients rather than the process had achieved this.

First off, learn to spell it.

Secondly the local water makes a difference.

Scotchmen don't own the spelling. It comes from the Gaelic word uisge which one may transliterate as one likes. I could spell it wisci if it suited me. I used the spelling in the initial post.

The local water? Is the suggestion then that if you used water from Cornwall to make Irish whiskey, and alongside it you made otherwise identical Irish whiskey, a whiskey pseud could tell them apart? Has that ever been demonstrated?

It'd partly depend on the volatiles in the water used for distilling, and also the solid non-volatile content of the water used for later dilution, and their interaction with the other ingredients. So partly on the peatbogs and partly on the local geology. But very much on the individual still and the distilling.

Whisky = Scots, Whiskey = Irish, or for that matter Appalachian IIRC, by well-established convention. It causes confusion to adopt an alternative usage, so deliberate flouting might just possibly be seen as ill-mannered to your readership.

Anyway, here is a constructive suggestion: look into the Scots Malt Whisky Society. My dad is a member, to our mutual pleasure. (But you need to google with the correct spellings ...).

It's actually the Scotch Malt Whisky Society.

Tykejohnno

Roger said:

A labour lead and suddenly it's like Aberdeen on flag day

Roger,England only - con 36 lab 33 from Ashcroft poll,that can only widen ;-)

SMukesh

Roger said:

A labour lead and suddenly it's like Aberdeen on flag day

Actually a tie,though technically Lab ought to have been in the lead before reallocation of don`t knows to party voted for in 2010.

Ishmael_X

Roger said:

A labour lead and suddenly it's like Aberdeen on flag day

Good lunch, Rog? 33-33 is not a lead, and an Ashcroft poll is an Ashcroft poll.

Stereotomy

Tykejohnno said:

Roger said:

A labour lead and suddenly it's like Aberdeen on flag day

Roger,England only - con 36 lab 33 from Ashcroft poll,that can only widen ;-)

Or narrow, or stay the same

Sunil_Prasannan

BTW, nice cartoon, Marf!

Big_G_NorthWales

Having listened to the 'Chancellors' on Sky this afternoon what a damp squib of a programme. If this is the quality of the debates/question sessions then a lot of people are going to go channel hopping.

Danny565

rcs1000 said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

Sunil Prasannan ‏@Sunil_P2 · 2m2 minutes ago
The Rise and Fall (possibly?) of UKIP? Their weekly % scores in ELBOW since August. W/e 22nd March = 13.9%
https://twitter.com/Sunil_P2/status/580042589073707008

The decline of UKIP is very bad for the LibDems. They need UKIP to be as high as possible to minimise the Con/Lab vote share in seats where they are strong.

True, especially since one would assume that the gains UKIP have made from the Lib Dems themselves (the generic "vote against the system" votes) will be the ones who stick to UKIP most.

Morris_Dancer

Can't judge the past by modern standards of morality.

As Mr. T observed a few weeks ago, Wolf Hall featured a heretic being burned alive (about a century after Richard III died). That's abhorrent to normal people today, but happens in land controlled by ISIS.

Carnyx

Luckyguy1983 said:

Carnyx said:

Bond_James_Bond said:

Ishmael_X said:

Bond_James_Bond said:

Alanbrooke said:

2015s best whiskey comes from Taiwan. Not sure if I feel good or bad about that.

http://www.scotsman.com/lifestyle/heritage/taiwan-whisky-beats-scotch-to-top-award-1-3725944

Can any whiskey lovers opine?

It has always been my impression that the degree of processing involved in whiskey production would tend to obviate any advantages from producing it in a particular geography. I wouldn't think the same of wine, since there is relatively little done to wine apart from letting it age. With whiskey the choices made by the distillers must have more bearing on the end result than minor differences in the ingredients used.

In consequence there seems no obvious reason why whiskey should be any better from one location than another.

Is that about right? Whiskey is a hobby I intend to take up in retirement and while I've been to whiskey tastings where very marked differences in flavour were apparent, there was no suggestion that it was the ingredients rather than the process had achieved this.

First off, learn to spell it.

Secondly the local water makes a difference.

Scotchmen don't own the spelling. It comes from the Gaelic word uisge which one may transliterate as one likes. I could spell it wisci if it suited me. I used the spelling in the initial post.

The local water? Is the suggestion then that if you used water from Cornwall to make Irish whiskey, and alongside it you made otherwise identical Irish whiskey, a whiskey pseud could tell them apart? Has that ever been demonstrated?

It'd partly depend on the volatiles in the water used for distilling, and also the solid non-volatile content of the water used for later dilution, and their interaction with the other ingredients. So partly on the peatbogs and partly on the local geology. But very much on the individual still and the distilling.

Whisky = Scots, Whiskey = Irish, or for that matter Appalachian IIRC, by well-established convention. It causes confusion to adopt an alternative usage, so deliberate flouting might just possibly be seen as ill-mannered to your readership.

Anyway, here is a constructive suggestion: look into the Scots Malt Whisky Society. My dad is a member, to our mutual pleasure. (But you need to google with the correct spellings ...).

It's actually the Scotch Malt Whisky Society.

So it is - thank you: I was mulling too much on the joys of the numbered cask bottles ...

Morris_Dancer

Cantankerous gnome defeated:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-32021964

Pulpstar

78% of Scots definitely made up mind

UK Wide

61% of Labour voters made up mind
69% of Tories
42% Lib Dems
60% UKIP

Judging by the supplementaries it looks to me like the SNP vote is the most certain of all !

If it was to be drilled down I'd guess Scottish Conservatives are fairly made up also (They always seem to be...)

Charles

SimonStClare said:

FPT

Blimey, not every day that The Wurzels comes up in conversation..!

'get drunk and wee on people' is an inspired description of our Nige

TGOHF

SMukesh said:

Nowcast.

50 Con gains+10 Lib Gains-30 SNP loss-5 Con gains+258=283 for Lab

15 Lib Gains+5 Lab gains-50 Lab loss+306=276 for Con.

50 Lab from Con gains in England - interesting.

Tykejohnno

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Having listened to the 'Chancellors' on Sky this afternoon what a damp squib of a programme. If this is the quality of the debates/question sessions then a lot of people are going to go channel hopping.

Agree,and the TV news coverage improves,Osborne giving a answer and sky go off for break.

Financier

Net England:

Con: 36
LAB: 33
LD: 8
UKIP: 14
Green: 6

Only region where LAB is in the lead is North.

MikeL

Poor polling day for Con but one glimmer of hope is the answer to Ashcroft Q2:

- 69% of Con will definitely vote Con; 31% may change
- 61% of Lab will definitely vote Lab; 39% may change

Q4 also quite surprising:

- 67% of Con think they will be better off under Con
- 43% of Lab think they will be better off under Lab

Would have expected far more Lab supporters to fear being worse off under Con - ie fear of benefit cuts.

Charles

rcs1000 said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

Sunil Prasannan ‏@Sunil_P2 · 2m2 minutes ago
The Rise and Fall (possibly?) of UKIP? Their weekly % scores in ELBOW since August. W/e 22nd March = 13.9%
https://twitter.com/Sunil_P2/status/580042589073707008

The decline of UKIP is very bad for the LibDems. They need UKIP to be as high as possible to minimise the Con/Lab vote share in seats where they are strong.

I wonder if it is worse than that.

My impression was that UKIP had gained a chunk of the LD vote, but as UKIP deflates that's not going back to them.

So perhaps UKIP will end up with 3% [2010] plus whatever proportion of the LD NOTA vote they hack away...

(which means that they get Carswell + no one else. And Carswell would probably win as an independent anyway, so not really a UKIP story)

Pulpstar

Charles said:

My impression was that UKIP had gained a chunk of the LD vote, but as UKIP deflates that's not going back to them.

It looks like UKIP has 2010 LD voters but I don't think that is actually the case.

TGOHF

Carnyx said:

Luckyguy1983 said:

Carnyx said:

Bond_James_Bond said:

Ishmael_X said:

Bond_James_Bond said:

Alanbrooke said:

2015s best whiskey comes from Taiwan. Not sure if I feel good or bad about that.

http://www.scotsman.com/lifestyle/heritage/taiwan-whisky-beats-scotch-to-top-award-1-3725944

Can any whiskey lovers opine?

It has always been my impression that the degree of processing involved in whiskey production would tend to obviate any advantages from producing it in a particular geography. I wouldn't think the same of wine, since there is relatively little done to wine apart from letting it age. With whiskey the choices made by the distillers must have more bearing on the end result than minor differences in the ingredients used.

In consequence there seems no obvious reason why whiskey should be any better from one location than another.

Is that about right? Whiskey is a hobby I intend to take up in retirement and while I've been to whiskey tastings where very marked differences in flavour were apparent, there was no suggestion that it was the ingredients rather than the process had achieved this.

First off, learn to spell it.

Secondly the local water makes a difference.

Scotchmen don't own the spelling. It comes from the Gaelic word uisge which one may transliterate as one likes. I could spell it wisci if it suited me. I used the spelling in the initial post.

The local water? Is the suggestion then that if you used water from Cornwall to make Irish whiskey, and alongside it you made otherwise identical Irish whiskey, a whiskey pseud could tell them apart? Has that ever been demonstrated?

It'd partly depend on the volatiles in the water used for distilling, and also the solid non-volatile content of the water used for later dilution, and their interaction with the other ingredients. So partly on the peatbogs and partly on the local geology. But very much on the individual still and the distilling.

Whisky = Scots, Whiskey = Irish, or for that matter Appalachian IIRC, by well-established convention. It causes confusion to adopt an alternative usage, so deliberate flouting might just possibly be seen as ill-mannered to your readership.

Anyway, here is a constructive suggestion: look into the Scots Malt Whisky Society. My dad is a member, to our mutual pleasure. (But you need to google with the correct spellings ...).

It's actually the Scotch Malt Whisky Society.

So it is - thank you: I was mulling too much on the joys of the numbered cask bottles ...

Carynx - if the word "scotch" is good enough for me, RLS and the whisky makers it's good enough for you

Paul_Mid_Beds

Best Marf cartoon Ive seen. Genuinely funny.

Scott_P

@GuidoFawkes: Miriam Clegg to do LBC phone in on Wednesday.

Pulpstar

Financier said:

Net England:

Con: 36
LAB: 33
LD: 8
UKIP: 14
Green: 6

Only region where LAB is in the lead is North.

If Labour get to within 1% in the Midlands then they are in for alot of gains there... I think.

NickPalmer

Morris_Dancer said:

Can't judge the past by modern standards of morality.

As Mr. T observed a few weeks ago, Wolf Hall featured a heretic being burned alive (about a century after Richard III died). That's abhorrent to normal people today, but happens in land controlled by ISIS.

Great cartoon. I had a constituent the other day who philosophically said that ISIS seemed to be repeating the practices that's we'd pursued in the past - beheadings, defacing religious institutions, and so on. She wasn't saying that to excuse ISIS, rather just gloomily reflecting that human nature doesn't change as much as we'd like.

surbiton

Greens are sliding too ! Are the Yellows creeping up gradually ?

SouthamObserver

Scott_P said:

@SamCoatesTimes: (Phone battery went dead).
Paxman asked to name leaders whose TV performances he admired / rated. Names Hammond, Hague, Cameron.

@SamCoatesTimes: ... When it's pointed out that he forgot Ed Miliband, Paxman replied: "How astute" (to notice).

Ha, ha. Lucky Paxman is no longer involved in TV interviewing.

RobD

surbiton said:

Greens are sliding too ! Are the Yellows creeping up gradually ?

Not that I can see.

CD13

Charles,

"which means that they get Carswell + no one else. And Carswell would probably win as an independent anyway, so not really a UKIP story) "

I have a shiny £1 coin riding on that (my first ever political bet) and I've already given it up. Still can't see Boston electing anyone but Ukip.

Luckyguy1983

Bond_James_Bond said:

Ishmael_X said:

Bond_James_Bond said:

Alanbrooke said:

2015s best whiskey comes from Taiwan. Not sure if I feel good or bad about that.

http://www.scotsman.com/lifestyle/heritage/taiwan-whisky-beats-scotch-to-top-award-1-3725944

Can any whiskey lovers opine?

It has always been my impression that the degree of processing involved in whiskey production would tend to obviate any advantages from producing it in a particular geography. I wouldn't think the same of wine, since there is relatively little done to wine apart from letting it age. With whiskey the choices made by the distillers must have more bearing on the end result than minor differences in the ingredients used.

In consequence there seems no obvious reason why whiskey should be any better from one location than another.

Is that about right? Whiskey is a hobby I intend to take up in retirement and while I've been to whiskey tastings where very marked differences in flavour were apparent, there was no suggestion that it was the ingredients rather than the process had achieved this.

First off, learn to spell it.

Secondly the local water makes a difference.

Scotchmen don't own the spelling. It comes from the Gaelic word uisge which one may transliterate as one likes. I could spell it wisci if it suited me. I used the spelling in the initial post.

The local water? Is the suggestion then that if you used water from Cornwall to make Irish whiskey, and alongside it you made otherwise identical Irish whiskey, a whiskey pseud could tell them apart? Has that ever been demonstrated?

There are all sorts of things that affect the final taste of whisky -the barley (strain, where it's grown), the malting/drying process (how much peat is used etc.), the distillation (and to a small extent the prior fermentation) process (mainly due to the size and shape of still, and whether it's been double or triple (rare) distilled), and finally and probably most importantly maturation (sherry or bourbon seasoned casks, length of maturation, location of dunnage warehouse etc.).

Water would undoubtedly affect the process, but it would take a brave person who would claim to discern what water had been used by tasting a whisky. However, you can see that through the various influences I described, location does make a big difference. For example, a Talisker will have a briny taste to it due to the location of its warehouses open to the seas. That's not to say Scotland is the only place you can make good whisky, any more than France is the only place you can make good wine. Japanese whisky has a brilliant reputation, and Swedish is great too.

And please use the correct spelling, ta.

surbiton

Financier said:

Net England:

Con: 36
LAB: 33
LD: 8
UKIP: 14
Green: 6

Only region where LAB is in the lead is North.

Except this would give Labour huge gains. 40+ , I'd imagine.

Paul_Mid_Beds

The budget was a forward defensive. I think Salmonds interview will resonate more with the public by the end of the week.

Luckyguy1983

Carnyx said:

Luckyguy1983 said:

Carnyx said:

Bond_James_Bond said:

Ishmael_X said:

Bond_James_Bond said:

Alanbrooke said:

2015s best whiskey comes from Taiwan. Not sure if I feel good or bad about that.

http://www.scotsman.com/lifestyle/heritage/taiwan-whisky-beats-scotch-to-top-award-1-3725944

Can any whiskey lovers opine?

It has always been my impression that the degree of processing involved in whiskey production would tend to obviate any advantages from producing it in a particular geography. I wouldn't think the same of wine, since there is relatively little done to wine apart from letting it age. With whiskey the choices made by the distillers must have more bearing on the end result than minor differences in the ingredients used.

In consequence there seems no obvious reason why whiskey should be any better from one location than another.

Is that about right? Whiskey is a hobby I intend to take up in retirement and while I've been to whiskey tastings where very marked differences in flavour were apparent, there was no suggestion that it was the ingredients rather than the process had achieved this.

First off, learn to spell it.

Secondly the local water makes a difference.

Scotchmen don't own the spelling. It comes from the Gaelic word uisge which one may transliterate as one likes. I could spell it wisci if it suited me. I used the spelling in the initial post.

The local water? Is the suggestion then that if you used water from Cornwall to make Irish whiskey, and alongside it you made otherwise identical Irish whiskey, a whiskey pseud could tell them apart? Has that ever been demonstrated?

It'd partly depend on the volatiles in the water used for distilling, and also the solid non-volatile content of the water used for later dilution, and their interaction with the other ingredients. So partly on the peatbogs and partly on the local geology. But very much on the individual still and the distilling.

Whisky = Scots, Whiskey = Irish, or for that matter Appalachian IIRC, by well-established convention. It causes confusion to adopt an alternative usage, so deliberate flouting might just possibly be seen as ill-mannered to your readership.

Anyway, here is a constructive suggestion: look into the Scots Malt Whisky Society. My dad is a member, to our mutual pleasure. (But you need to google with the correct spellings ...).

It's actually the Scotch Malt Whisky Society.

So it is - thank you: I was mulling too much on the joys of the numbered cask bottles ...

Scots on the brain.

TGOHF

surbiton said:

Financier said:

Net England:

Con: 36
LAB: 33
LD: 8
UKIP: 14
Green: 6

Only region where LAB is in the lead is North.

Except this would give Labour huge gains. 40+ , I'd imagine.

If you believe UNS. What are seats 35-60 and do they look feasible gains ?

surbiton

Pulpstar said:

78% of Scots definitely made up mind

UK Wide

61% of Labour voters made up mind
69% of Tories
42% Lib Dems
60% UKIP

Judging by the supplementaries it looks to me like the SNP vote is the most certain of all !

If it was to be drilled down I'd guess Scottish Conservatives are fairly made up also (They always seem to be...)

They are like a minority sect, aren't they ?

Paul_Mid_Beds

Pulpstar said:

Financier said:

Net England:

Con: 36
LAB: 33
LD: 8
UKIP: 14
Green: 6

Only region where LAB is in the lead is North.

If Labour get to within 1% in the Midlands then they are in for alot of gains there... I think.

Whats the midlands figures on this poll. I recall a post here a few days back that claimed Labour were worried about the Midlands.

OblitusSumMe

Morris_Dancer said:

Can't judge the past by modern standards of morality.

As Mr. T observed a few weeks ago, Wolf Hall featured a heretic being burned alive (about a century after Richard III died). That's abhorrent to normal people today, but happens in land controlled by ISIS.

One of the problems of being morally relativist about history is that you can do a disservice to contemporaries who were against burning people alive at the time.

So to take Richard III, although the times were certainly more violent than our own, I think the story about him killing the princes in the tower was put about precisely because killing children was considered a bit beyond the pale, even then, so the judgement is perfectly fine, by the morals of his own time (though one has to be wary of whether it was propaganda to discredit the Plantagenet line, of course).

TGOHF

Good poll for Ukip ? +2 on expectations ?


James Chapman (Mail) ‏@jameschappers 28s28 seconds ago

For 1st time in 10 years, @PinkNews poll finds CON/LAB level among LGBT voters: CON 26 LAB 26 GRN 20 LIB 19 SNP 6 (62% in Scotland) UKIP 2

Morris_Dancer

Mr. P, bah. She's not elected and is not standing for election.

Charles

TGOHF said:

Good poll for Ukip ? +2 on expectations ?


James Chapman (Mail) ‏@jameschappers 28s28 seconds ago

For 1st time in 10 years, @PinkNews poll finds CON/LAB level among LGBT voters: CON 26 LAB 26 GRN 20 LIB 19 SNP 6 (62% in Scotland) UKIP 2

Nah: Of course LGBT umbrella and wellie makers, lifeboatmen and assorted trades support UKIP

edit: and without rain you couldn't have rainbows...

Financier

Pulpstar said:

Financier said:

Net England:

Con: 36
LAB: 33
LD: 8
UKIP: 14
Green: 6

Only region where LAB is in the lead is North.

If Labour get to within 1% in the Midlands then they are in for alot of gains there... I think.

Lord A has the Midlands on their own as:

Cons: 35
LAB: 28
LD: 12
UKIP: 18
Green: 4

Sunil_Prasannan

RobD said:

surbiton said:

Greens are sliding too ! Are the Yellows creeping up gradually ?

Not that I can see.

"I'll show you."

https://twitter.com/Sunil_P2/status/579769538851549184

TGOHF

Financier said:

Pulpstar said:

Financier said:

Net England:

Con: 36
LAB: 33
LD: 8
UKIP: 14
Green: 6

Only region where LAB is in the lead is North.

If Labour get to within 1% in the Midlands then they are in for alot of gains there... I think.

Lord A has the Midlands on their own as:

Cons: 35
LAB: 28
LD: 12
UKIP: 18
Green: 4

So where are Labour up on 2010 in England and Wales ? London ?

Morris_Dancer

Mr. Me, if you grow up surrounded by murder and barbarism it'll naturally affect your own perspective. Not to mention the wider picture (collapse of law and order after the Western Empire fell, then the decline of chivalry which saw warfare become even grimmer).

RobD

Sunil_Prasannan said:

RobD said:

surbiton said:

Greens are sliding too ! Are the Yellows creeping up gradually ?

Not that I can see.

"I'll show you."

https://twitter.com/Sunil_P2/status/579769538851549184

That's pretty flat!

Omnium

NickPalmer said:

Morris_Dancer said:

Can't judge the past by modern standards of morality.

As Mr. T observed a few weeks ago, Wolf Hall featured a heretic being burned alive (about a century after Richard III died). That's abhorrent to normal people today, but happens in land controlled by ISIS.

Great cartoon. I had a constituent the other day who philosophically said that ISIS seemed to be repeating the practices that's we'd pursued in the past - beheadings, defacing religious institutions, and so on. She wasn't saying that to excuse ISIS, rather just gloomily reflecting that human nature doesn't change as much as we'd like.

How did you respond?

She's right, but you can learn from other people mistakes.

Sunil_Prasannan

RobD said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

RobD said:

surbiton said:

Greens are sliding too ! Are the Yellows creeping up gradually ?

Not that I can see.

"I'll show you."

https://twitter.com/Sunil_P2/status/579769538851549184

That's pretty flat!

Up 0.7% in two weeks

Luckyguy1983

Alanbrooke said:

rcs1000 said:

Alanbrooke said:

- Sensible energy prices - fracking would have helped. They've also made some moves towards eliminating onshore wind subsidies. But tough when you have a fluffy running the relevant department

Fracking is an irrelevancy now, as the low price of oil makes it uneconomic in the UK.

At a minimum you need Brent above $80 for it to make financial sense, and more realistically, more like $100.

If Brent stays below $60, then - with all the government good will in the world - there will be no shale gas in the UK.

(The long-term contracts at which we buy LNG from abroad is typically bought at 85% of Brent on a calorie equivalent basis. This - more or less - means you divide the price of oil by seven. So, at $55, we import natural gas at $7.85. That is less than the price that was needed to get fracking going in the US, and no-one is going to make the investment in drilling up the North of England unless the gas price is north of $10/mmcf.)

RCS, I thinks it's Charles advocating fracking.

Personally I just want green energy taxes cut. I see no point in shutting UK foundries ( for example ) to then have a coal fired plant with a worse record on pollution open up in India or China to make the same products which we then import.

The best position for the UK and probably the greenest is to become more energy efficient.

This is a really good potential attack line for UKIP - REAL sustainability, measuring Britain's REAL carbon footprint. Personally I think AGW is hogwash, but there's no need to take those brickbats if not necessary. A press call in a derelict foundry demonstrating via easy to understand graphics how we still use all that carbon but we just offshore it and lose the jobs so our idiot politicians don't get a hard time at those idiotic conferences would be great. UKIP's REAL carbon footprint measure.

Don't argue using their parameters, CHANGE the argument, make them argue on yours.

RobD

Sunil_Prasannan said:

RobD said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

RobD said:

surbiton said:

Greens are sliding too ! Are the Yellows creeping up gradually ?

Not that I can see.

"I'll show you."

https://twitter.com/Sunil_P2/status/579769538851549184

That's pretty flat!

Up 0.7% in two weeks

If only we had a Balls flat-lining hand gesture emoticon, or a gif for that matter!

kjohnw

TGOHF said:

Financier said:

Pulpstar said:

Financier said:

Net England:

Con: 36
LAB: 33
LD: 8
UKIP: 14
Green: 6

Only region where LAB is in the lead is North.

If Labour get to within 1% in the Midlands then they are in for alot of gains there... I think.

Lord A has the Midlands on their own as:

Cons: 35
LAB: 28
LD: 12
UKIP: 18
Green: 4

So where are Labour up on 2010 in England and Wales ? London ?

quite. If the majority of the CON->LAB swing is concentrated to London and safe labour seats, then the real picture under FPTP could be very different to what UNS says.

Sunil_Prasannan

RobD said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

RobD said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

RobD said:

surbiton said:

Greens are sliding too ! Are the Yellows creeping up gradually ?

Not that I can see.

"I'll show you."

https://twitter.com/Sunil_P2/status/579769538851549184

That's pretty flat!

Up 0.7% in two weeks

If only we had a Balls flat-lining hand gesture emoticon, or a gif for that matter!

The up-tick is actually more apparent in the full ELBOW chart:
https://twitter.com/Sunil_P2/status/579764172013068288

Carnyx

TGOHF said:

Carnyx said:

[snip]
So it is - thank you: I was mulling too much on the joys of the numbered cask bottles ...

Carynx - if the word "scotch" is good enough for me, RLS and the whisky makers it's good enough for you

Still thinking about the last one - closer to distilled essence of rhubarb than anything else.

Sean_F

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. Me, if you grow up surrounded by murder and barbarism it'll naturally affect your own perspective. Not to mention the wider picture (collapse of law and order after the Western Empire fell, then the decline of chivalry which saw warfare become even grimmer).

I agree with Obitus Sum Me that if Richard III did murder his nephews, this would have been regarded as a horrific crime, even by contemporary standards.

Easterross

Afternoon all and looking at the target seats, of the top 50 Labour target seats, the Ashcroft seat polls have the Tories holding 11 of them. Just cannot see where Labour would get those 50 gains from.

MikeK

Afzal Amin resigns as Conservative candidate in Dudley North
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-32024045

MikeK

http://jamesdelingpole.com/2015/03/as-farage-has-just-been-reminded-theres-no-fascist-like-a-liberal-fascist/

JonnyJimmy

RobD said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

RobD said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

RobD said:

surbiton said:

Greens are sliding too ! Are the Yellows creeping up gradually ?

Not that I can see.

"I'll show you."

https://twitter.com/Sunil_P2/status/579769538851549184

That's pretty flat!

Up 0.7% in two weeks

If only we had a Balls flat-lining hand gesture emoticon, or a gif for that matter!

Stereotomy

Given Yougov's format, is there a reason they don't release tables of how people have switched from week to week?

RobD

JonnyJimmy said:

RobD said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

RobD said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

RobD said:

surbiton said:

Greens are sliding too ! Are the Yellows creeping up gradually ?

Not that I can see.

"I'll show you."

https://twitter.com/Sunil_P2/status/579769538851549184

That's pretty flat!

Up 0.7% in two weeks

If only we had a Balls flat-lining hand gesture emoticon, or a gif for that matter!

Excellent. This may be reposted....

Sunil_Prasannan

RobD said:

JonnyJimmy said:

RobD said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

RobD said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

RobD said:

surbiton said:

Greens are sliding too ! Are the Yellows creeping up gradually ?

Not that I can see.

"I'll show you."

https://twitter.com/Sunil_P2/status/579769538851549184

That's pretty flat!

Up 0.7% in two weeks

If only we had a Balls flat-lining hand gesture emoticon, or a gif for that matter!

Excellent. This may be reposted....

SMukesh

RobD said:

JonnyJimmy said:

RobD said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

RobD said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

RobD said:

surbiton said:

Greens are sliding too ! Are the Yellows creeping up gradually ?

Not that I can see.

"I'll show you."

https://twitter.com/Sunil_P2/status/579769538851549184

That's pretty flat!

Up 0.7% in two weeks

If only we had a Balls flat-lining hand gesture emoticon, or a gif for that matter!

Excellent. This may be reposted....

Is that the sign for swingback?

Omnium

RobD said:

JonnyJimmy said:

RobD said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

RobD said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

RobD said:

surbiton said:

Greens are sliding too ! Are the Yellows creeping up gradually ?

Not that I can see.

"I'll show you."

https://twitter.com/Sunil_P2/status/579769538851549184

That's pretty flat!

Up 0.7% in two weeks

If only we had a Balls flat-lining hand gesture emoticon, or a gif for that matter!

Excellent. This may be reposted....

Labour are past masters at the hand-gesture. I think Ball's has misjudged though.

http://www.private-eye.co.uk/covers/cover-647

dr_spyn

Henry Tudor eliminated Richard's designated heir, though there had been deliberate acts during the Wars of The Roses to eliminate leading figure after defeat in battle.

SMukesh

Miliband on Cameron and Tom Cruise:

`Were you disappointed just last week the president of the European Council, supposedly an ally of Britain, described the your position as mission impossible? Now, with the typical modesty we have come to expect from you, you then compared yourself to Tom Cruise. Though, to be fair, you did admit one crucial difference. You said ‘he’s a little bit smaller than me’. I have to say, I am not sure that’s the main difference that comes to mind. I would say one has a consistent and relatively coherent approach to international affairs and the other is the prime minister of Britain`.

Funny.

SouthamObserver

Results of the regional elections in Andalusia yesterday:

http://resultados.elpais.com/elecciones/2015/autonomicas/01/index.html

A very big drop for PP - from 50 seats down to 33.

This represents another polling failure. In the lead up to the vote the indications were that PSOE and PP were pretty close.

chestnut

All the more reputable pollsters that report the Midlands separately have the Tories 6-9 ahead across half a dozen poll averages.

They all have Labour 13-17 points clear oop North.

Piling up Lib Dem votes in places they've already won?

Steven_Whaley

Stereotomy said:

Given Yougov's format, is there a reason they don't release tables of how people have switched from week to week?

They don't ask the same people all that often. I get asked a YouGov voting intention question maybe once every two to two and a half months on average.

surbiton

Easterross said:

Afternoon all and looking at the target seats, of the top 50 Labour target seats, the Ashcroft seat polls have the Tories holding 11 of them. Just cannot see where Labour would get those 50 gains from.

11 from the next 50 !!!!!!!!!!!

surbiton

kjohnw said:

TGOHF said:

Financier said:

Pulpstar said:

Financier said:

Net England:

Con: 36
LAB: 33
LD: 8
UKIP: 14
Green: 6

Only region where LAB is in the lead is North.

If Labour get to within 1% in the Midlands then they are in for alot of gains there... I think.

Lord A has the Midlands on their own as:

Cons: 35
LAB: 28
LD: 12
UKIP: 18
Green: 4

So where are Labour up on 2010 in England and Wales ? London ?

quite. If the majority of the CON->LAB swing is concentrated to London and safe labour seats, then the real picture under FPTP could be very different to what UNS says.

Labour is up in the South as a whole.

Luckyguy1983

On topic, very good cartoon. I couldn't quite believe what I was seeing on BBC breakfast this morning. I half expected weeping and throwing of flowers. An old man who presumably lived through WW2 said it was the most important thing to happen in his life. Of course, from a tourism perspective I think it's brilliant.

Luckyguy1983

SMukesh said:

Miliband on Cameron and Tom Cruise:

`Were you disappointed just last week the president of the European Council, supposedly an ally of Britain, described the your position as mission impossible? Now, with the typical modesty we have come to expect from you, you then compared yourself to Tom Cruise. Though, to be fair, you did admit one crucial difference. You said ‘he’s a little bit smaller than me’. I have to say, I am not sure that’s the main difference that comes to mind. I would say one has a consistent and relatively coherent approach to international affairs and the other is the prime minister of Britain`.

Funny.

Although people in glass kitchenettes...

Sunil_Prasannan

Once again Lord Ashcroft understates LibDems - should be on 9% (not 8) after spiral of silence adjustment. Labour and Tories (just about in the case of Tories) OK!

FalseFlag

SouthamObserver said:

Results of the regional elections in Andalusia yesterday:

http://resultados.elpais.com/elecciones/2015/autonomicas/01/index.html

A very big drop for PP - from 50 seats down to 33.

This represents another polling failure. In the lead up to the vote the indications were that PSOE and PP were pretty close.

There is a marked drop in IQ the further south you go in Spain so it is not surprising that Andalusia is a socialist strong hold.

https://www.questia.com/library/journal/1P3-2678446191/north-south-differences-in-spain-in-iq-educational

chestnut

Ashcroft's "form"

Newark: 5.3%
Clacton: 5.4%
Heywood: 2.4%
Rochester 3%

Those are how much better the Tories did against Labour in the actual elections compared to the good Lord's polls.

perdix

We honour Richard III because he was a king. All kings until the civil war were killers. Sick joke by marf.

Morris_Dancer

Miliband's joke is a bit telegraphed. Important (and tricky) to ensure that the set-up line isn't blatant, otherwise it blunts the sharpness of the punchline.

One of my favourite political jokes was by Disraeli. When asked the difference between a misfortune and a calamity, he explained:
"A misfortune would be if Gladstone fell in the Thames. A calamity would be if someone fished him out."

[Or words to that effect].

Omnium

Bloody hell - my best ever post on PB, and totally ignored!

isam

Mentioned it on the last thread, I am going to the Mat Forde political pundit show on Wednesday in Victoria... Special guest is David Lammy

Anyone else here attending?

MaxPB

Think I just got some private polling for the Greens from Populus, specifically asking why I wouldn't vote Green in my local area.

RobD

Sunil_Prasannan said:

RobD said:

JonnyJimmy said:

RobD said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

RobD said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

RobD said:

surbiton said:

Greens are sliding too ! Are the Yellows creeping up gradually ?

Not that I can see.

"I'll show you."

https://twitter.com/Sunil_P2/status/579769538851549184

That's pretty flat!

Up 0.7% in two weeks

If only we had a Balls flat-lining hand gesture emoticon, or a gif for that matter!

snip

Excellent. This may be reposted....

snip

To avoid this descending into farce, I propose we can only post gifs if they are from the House of Commons/Lords!

SouthamObserver

FalseFlag said:

SouthamObserver said:

Results of the regional elections in Andalusia yesterday:

http://resultados.elpais.com/elecciones/2015/autonomicas/01/index.html

A very big drop for PP - from 50 seats down to 33.

This represents another polling failure. In the lead up to the vote the indications were that PSOE and PP were pretty close.

There is a marked drop in IQ the further south you go in Spain so it is not surprising that Andalusia is a socialist strong hold.

https://www.questia.com/library/journal/1P3-2678446191/north-south-differences-in-spain-in-iq-educational

Except PP won more seats than PSOE in the last election.

DavidL

Well my blue Monday theory has taken a bit of a beating today. If they follow the normal pattern and fall off from here for the rest of the week some of those on Tory most seats are going to start to panic.

DavidL

MaxPB said:

Think I just got some private polling for the Greens from Populus, specifically asking why I wouldn't vote Green in my local area.

Because you're sane?

Morris_Dancer

Mr. Omnium, often happens. F1 tips sometimes get little response [admittedly the bet on Alonso to win in Australia didn't quite occur, but still].

FalseFlag

SouthamObserver said:

FalseFlag said:

SouthamObserver said:

Results of the regional elections in Andalusia yesterday:

http://resultados.elpais.com/elecciones/2015/autonomicas/01/index.html

A very big drop for PP - from 50 seats down to 33.

This represents another polling failure. In the lead up to the vote the indications were that PSOE and PP were pretty close.

There is a marked drop in IQ the further south you go in Spain so it is not surprising that Andalusia is a socialist strong hold.

https://www.questia.com/library/journal/1P3-2678446191/north-south-differences-in-spain-in-iq-educational

Except PP won more seats than PSOE in the last election.

Just shows how badly the socialists did last time.

DavidL

perdix said:

We honour Richard III because he was a king. All kings until the civil war were killers. Sick joke by marf.

I thought it was quite funny.

I really, really don't get those maniacs on the radio this morning from the Richard III society looking to rebuild his reputation. I mean, is there not something more, I dunno, relevant to worry about?

isam

Cameron on the BBC saying he will serve a full 2nd term but not a 3rd

MikeL

Cam fluff piece leading BBC1 6pm News.

Sunil_Prasannan

isam said:

Cameron on the BBC saying he will serve a full 2nd term but not a 3rd

Heir to Blair?