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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » So was it, as was being predicted, the game-changer?
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » So was it, as was being predicted, the game-changer?
The one thing we’ve learned from previous budgets, bot LAB & CON, is that early judgements are not usually the right ones. Remember the initial polling on the March 2012 omni-shambles was fairly positive.
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Hopefully replaced by Hammond if this is the case.
What the Tories really need if they want to change opinion, would be quickly to go big on what they would do without the Lib Dems. If they wait and wait, it will all get lost in the noise of the mud slinging.
But there are plenty of treats in there - mostly on savings and income taxes.
Savetobuy ISA was imaginative.
Labour list doesn't do parody
"Ed Miliband’s response today was strong. He pointed out that the Chancellor had nothing to say about the NHS and that the public simply would not believe his boasts on living standards and wages."
#takeyourpick
I do not think many people at all were predicting a 'game changing' budget. There were never going to be any rabbits out of any hats. The projections are not the governments they are the OBR's.
The budget was going to be important. It sets the scene for the election and it shows the country on track.
That should underpin the tories. Not sure about the LDs.
@politicshome: .@georgeeaton heads today's Five at Five Must Reads: 'Osborne didn't deliver the game-changer the Tories needed' http://t.co/c0clVzoYEp
@GdnPolitics: Budget verdict: "nothing much changed, despite this Wizard of Oz performance" - @pollytoynbee http://t.co/Z4UkiLmERY
@David_Cameron: Today's Budget is about securing a better future for you, your family and Britain. Find out more: http://t.co/4XJXQ3r9bt #Budget2015
As usual with mid-week events, we will know by Monday.
Labour reduced to suggesting he's fibbing.
Labour's genius or luck is that they can promise they will be pretty steady and some people at least will buy into that (or feel things are going ok enough that it is worth the risk), and yet they will still pick up huge amounts of the 'time for a change' vote, even though the change on economic policy will in many areas be a coat of paint due to necessary restraints. I bet they cannot believe their luck.
11 Ways Tony Blair was more Socialist than Ed Miliband: http://www.buzzfeed.com/jonstone/sorry-but-he-isnt-clement-attlee-mk-2
See, I'm not the only one who thinks Labour's platform this year is further to the Right than any of New Labour's
The thing with these kind of things, actually I don't think people will notice for a long time, if at all. I am not sure the IC threshold increase is noticed by as many people as it probably should. They just get their pay packet and off they go. Lots of people on hourly wages, their wages move around week to week anyway.
I know when I was on just above minimum wage and doing agency work. My hours every week would vary massively. Some weeks 40hrs, some 60hrs, so I wouldn't have a clue if the IC threshold meant I was keeping a bit more.
"The same cuts but done in a nicer way" - is that the election slogan ?
To the second, because of the above, they don't need it as they actual slogan, even though it is pretty much their motto as far as I can see.
5.30 pm statement coming on the single debate agreement that has been made..
Following on from comments that you and others have made regarding the different methodology used by the various polling companies. Is there any chance that you could do a thread outlining the different methodology used and how you feel that affects the headline figures?
I am especially interested in the way the polling companies weight their scores in relation to past voting at the 2010 election and how they weight the samples taking into account the significant changes to the levels of support for SNP UKIP and LIBDEMS.
Based in Thanet S I am especially interested in understanding the Local polls better as what I am experiencing on the doorstep doesn't quite equate to the polling.
Many thanks.
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And further inspection shows that the tax allowance increase is indeed £200 extra this year, this April, over and above previously announced.
.
WRONG must try harder.
The tax-free personal allowance to rise from £10,600 in 2015-6 to £10,800 in 2016-7 and £11,000 in 2017-8
It would not be enough if the Tories didn't need such a large win to win outright (Yes, I know some people are saying the wouldn't need as big a win this time), but in general they do.
It amazes me that Ed has the chutzpah to use this line, given Labour's losing control of the economy, but hey, that's politics.
I can't see it being a game-changer though.
Inbox confo of bet
LOL
re: March of the badgers
The cows can be sacrificed.
about hypocrisy?
I genuinely have no idea what the impact will be, but the NFU has apparently been lobbying for it for ages, so I guess it's pretty important.
That's a direct play to shore up rural support in a big swathe of the country: and presumably to galvanise the GOTV effort that the rural community led last time round?
http://www.oddschecker.com/politics/british-politics/fermanagh-and-south-tyrone/winning-party
I can't be bothered but it's 2% return in 50 days for anyone who wants it.
"Did you ever have him over for a cheese and wine super?"
No time . Bar charts and graphs...... It was obvious with George at the helm he'd need to pick my brains dry
@joncraig: Scots Labour MP in danger from SNP tells me Scottish Socialist Party & Greens not standing in seats like his to maximise SNP threat to Lab.
But, intriguingly, strikes me as a very targeted measure, probably not costing much, for a core voting group (rural community is around 8% of population, IIRC) that may sneak under the radar screen for a lot of people.
@SunPolitics: Labour election message blown apart by George Osborne's spending plans http://t.co/PBghoGFUE2 http://t.co/Y2ZLeUh0HE
And neither will the BBC.
@faisalislam: underpinning @scotgov indy fiscal calcs (may 14): £8.3bn in Scot Oil taxes in 2015/16. OBR today: £700m UK total http://t.co/9kpYPOsEOZ
Maybe they can make up the shortfall with VAT receipts...
Edited extra bit: you missed a rare bit of PB unity earlier regarding the wondrous nature of the pig.
Edited extra bit 2: Mr. Charles, not sure what you mean.
The only thing that is not used from a pig is the oink?
Why do we still think Ed is crap?
Ed is most definitely not crap! He is merely misunderstood, and I put it to you that is the chief reason why he is so maligned and ridiculed by the evil right-wing media.
I am certain you will agree with me that Ed is magnificently charismatic and eloquent. He is an inspiring and refreshing standard bearer for the social democratic tradition in our great nation. Yes, indeed: One Nation. Nay, his performance this afternoon must surely have been amongst the greatest (if not the greatest) Post-Budget Responses ever given by a leader of the Labour Party, or indeed of any party leader! Such magnificence, such poise, such alacrity. Wow! And his wonderful repertoire of jokes would put even Harry Hill to shame!
He is articulate, passionate, an accomplished orator, and I think a real progressive alternative to the smarmy Bullingdon posh-boy Cameron.
Roll on May 7th!
https://twitter.com/SunNation/status/578247323001704448
EdM is still in pole position to become PM in just 7 weeks time - and I still confidently expect little movement in the polls over the coming weeks. I see no reason for it, unless Farage implodes.
I don't follow why OGH thinks Osborne would be replaced as Chancellor if Cameron clings on to power. Am I missing something there? Surely after all the hard graft of 2010-15, and with the sunlight uplands finally in view, GO could expect to be kept in post to reap the rewards?
In my defence, I have eaten a few unusual meat-things:
baby snakes [delicious]
ox and sheep tongue [one's nice, the other one you can feel the bumps]
beef in lukewarm blood [I do not recommend this]
Morris is flirting with smoked haddock (health regulations apart)
I think Farages mob had his wife and kids bound and gagged at Kipper HQ again in a desperate attempt to stop him escaping back to the Tories as he so obviously wants to
Some reaction to the chancellor's budget from Barnado's chief executive, Javed Khan. He said: "We're disappointed that the chancellor has chosen to combat in-work poverty with tax changes that benefit higher earners three times more than the poor. Struggling working families will see precious little from the tax change."
http://www.breitbart.com/london/2014/08/29/muslim-rape-gangs-the-disturbing-role-of-britain-s-leading-child-welfare-charity/
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2546033/Head-government-backed-charity-took-armed-gang-settle-long-running-land-row-Pakistan.html
BBC Scotland News@BBCScotlandNews·2 hrs2 hours ago
UKIP MP Douglas Carswell condemns what he calls "disgraceful comments" made by David Coburn about Humza Yousaf http://bbc.in/191P5hE
The whole concept of raising and then killing and eating a living, sentient creature, similar in many ways to ourselves would seem absolutely loathsome. But there again, cancer and illness will be eradicated, as too will poverty. There will be no prisons or crime. Party political elections will be the stuff of as satire as people universally converge around universally held values. The organs of the state will be long withered away.
Human beings are really quite progressive and humane.
My constituency is so particular that the choice is A Conservative or Ed Balls. That's not a hard choice for me.
I voted UKIP at the European Elections, and may well do so again next time.
Can you let me know if you're experiencing Labour ahead there, have left just over a ton liability on the reds in Thanet S.
Pulpstar-
Labour are completely NON-existent in Thanet S. The candidate is not very credible and with the utter lack of obvious resources there seems to be a consensus that they have given up.
But they do have a strong core vote which makes their attitude surprising. They should still poll a decent figure. Farage needs the Labour vote to collapse to give him the best chance of winning the seat.
Personally I suspect they always thought Farage would choose the seat for 2015 and pulled back from mounting a strong challenge, for them it is a winning situation. If Farage wins he will cause havoc-and it is one less Tory.
If the Labour Candidate wins Ed is PM with a huge majority!
For what its worth-currently I think Farage is neck and neck the key for him seems to be the local hustings-he has done a few of them and they have attracted some good turnouts. But Thanet S UKIP have a reputation for being especially useless at GOTV. Although this time he seems to have a very good Agent so if he can overcome the past problems he has a real chance.
I would make him slight favourite at this stage and gaining.
Mike S-thank you I look forward to seeing the article.
So WHY didn't Osborne - probably the most 'political' Chancellor ever - pull rabbits from the hat?
Seems the Tories are putting all their eggs in the campaign basket, hoping that long weeks of sustained tractor stats on the economy and personal attacks on Miliband by their media will succeed where set-pieces and 'events' have so far failed.
"Has George just won the Tories the election?
16.44 Ladbrokes seems to think so. The bookmaker has just narrowed its odds on a Tory victory on May 7.
Its head of political odds Matthew Shaddick was following the betting action:
Quote The money suggests that this might just be the start of a Tory breakthrough. It was one way traffic as soon as the Chancellor started speaking; if the betting reaction is any guide we might see a shift in the polls shortly.
Their new odds are:
1/5 No overall majority
9/2 Conservative majority
14/1 Labour majority "
Not had any chance to absorb any of the detail yet but it looks like a budget by someone brimming with confidence who finds cheap bribes beneath him (unless you are a pensioner with a bit of money to invest of course).
I find the confidence with which the tories have approached the debates and now the budget bewildering. Presumably they are all signed up fans of RodC.
"How much did he slash the house price in his desperation to move?"
He was far from desperate to move. Above him he had the very attractive Arts editor of the Times. Above her a writer with the Independent and below was me giving him economic seminars. All of us lefties except for those who weren't. And the Chinese managing agent adored him. Writing for the FT made him every Chinaman's hero.
The Office of Budget Responsibility estimates this scheme/ponzi scheme will cost the taxpayer 835 million by 2019/20.