And if TV debates happen, I think there'll be a slight boost (based on the fact that public opinion can't get much worse, and NC is now the most practised leader of the lot in public-facing debate).
That's what I thought ahead of the Clegg/Farage face-off ahead of the EU elections, but that seemed to knock a permanent 2% off the Lib Dem national share in the opinion polls.
@tnewtondunn: Funny old thing, Clegg is delighted by the new TV debates format. Spokesman says its "good news". Gives him parity with Dave and Ed again.
Labour are still trying to spin this as No 10 'caving in' rather than them getting absolutely everything they ever wanted out of TV coverage,,,
Not quite everything. The 7-way/orgy happens week of 2nd April rather than 23rd March.... But other than that, yep, seems to be QED, QFT, MSM, MFI, AOL, GS&M, etc.... To Number 10.
@patrickwintour: Broadcasters not very good at this breaking news business. Not yet said whether they agree/disagree with the Tory account of debate deal.
Dave has run rings around the broadcasters. His Carlton TV days coming to good use.
But according to all the leftards and Guardianistas of the world, Cameron didn't have a proper job when he worked at Carlton, so how would he know how TV works?
These debate proposals look utterly outrageous from UKIP's perspective.
I wonder if threatening not to take part would work. I cannot imagine a debate between Plaid, SNP and the Greens will attract as many viewers. If Farage takes part you will have 2 incredibly minor parties attacking him along with a regional party. There would appear to be little upside and more downside.
@MichaelLCrick: More than an hour after latest TV debates story broke, it seems odd the broadcasters have not yet confirmed debates 2 + 3 are cancelled
@MichaelLCrick: More than an hour after latest TV debates story broke, it seems odd the broadcasters have not yet confirmed debates 2 + 3 are cancelled
Well there is a clash on the 16th April and 30th April...
@KateEMcCann: Looks like broadcasters approached Labour over the weekend with proposals but they feel new plan has a little too much Tory meddling so...
@paulwaugh: David Cameron just said broadcasters 'led by BBC' put forward 'a formal offer' of new formats for TV debates/interviews
@KateEMcCann: ..They're yet to agree to full set of new debates. Labour saying should stick to original plan. Broadcasters confirm new deal IS from them
@paulwaugh: David Cameron just said broadcasters 'led by BBC' put forward 'a formal offer' of new formats for TV debates/interviews
@KateEMcCann: ..They're yet to agree to full set of new debates. Labour saying should stick to original plan. Broadcasters confirm new deal IS from them
@paulwaugh: David Cameron just said broadcasters 'led by BBC' put forward 'a formal offer' of new formats for TV debates/interviews
@KateEMcCann: ..They're yet to agree to full set of new debates. Labour saying should stick to original plan. Broadcasters confirm new deal IS from them
Oh Ed...
While the broadcasters and Ed run around with no idea who is doing what, Cameron is probably sitting there on his ipad playing Candy Crush....
Roger you keep stating that Clarkson has actually punched someone and not produced one shed of evidence..stop the wishful thinking. Joyce punched several people several times in different locations.. He is a serial puncher and drunk.
I love the fact that Roger chose to describe the BBC guy as a junior - wasn't he a producer?
I can think of 4 events where punches were thrown in the workplace / or after work but involving employees of companies
50% led to a sacking and 1 I think there was no action taken at all.
@patrickwintour: DCThere was a formal offer of a set of television programmes put together by the broadcasters put to me as PM. I accepted that deal in full
What do you think Cameron would have done differently had he won a majority?
He would have had a series of Ministers chomping at the bit to roll back the state, without Nick Clegg and Vince Cable tutting and clicking and saying no. We would be judging him now on how far he had let them. That said, welfare reform wouldn't have been too much different to what IDS has implemented, nor pensions reform I suspect.
Boundary changes - and reduction in the number of MPs would have happened. That alone would have allowed a few more risks to be taken, as re-election would have been that bit easier to contemplate.
Syria might have been a very different foreign policy situation, although I suspect enough Tories would still have rebelled to again block any involvement. Anti-terror legislation would have more teeth - although this means the security services would probably have gotten their way on more occasions, to the wider detriment of all our civil liberties perhaps. One area where the Coalition may have been to the wider benefit.
I think Osborne might have pursued a more aggressive policy to lure high net worth individuals to the UK. I am sure he would be happy to cut top tax rates below 45% if after five years the top 30% or 35% of all tax was paid by the top 1% of taxpayers, rather than the current 27%. Currently he would have to do that over the dead bodies of Clegg, Cable and Alexander for starters.
Cameron would still have pushed ahead with gay marriage. And foreign aid. It is just who he is. He thinks it the right thing to do. I happen to think posterity will hold him in high regard for it too.
Hard to see NHS changes being much different, although there are those who think the LibDems got in the mix to no great benefit.
Nothing much would be different with regard to Scotland. Although with a completely free hand, he might have negotiated a deal that would have stuffed Labour. In its absence, Labour have done the job very nicely as it is...
Which brings us to immigration and Europe. He would have had a free hand to press ahead with a Yes/No referendum this Parliament. Perhaps on polling day this year. Five years of negotiations for Europe to make some meaningful concessions. Or not. The great unknowable is whether Cameron would have concluded so little was on offer that he would recommend Out. But in Brussels, they only have to think he might.
It would probably have been much easier to shoot UKIP's fox. No defections. No presence in Westminster. And without UKIP, and the economy as is, he would be looking at an easy win in May with an increased majority.
2nd April is Maundy Thursday so the day when everyone is rushing to finish their work before the Easter weekend or off on holiday or sinking into a deep sofa with a large drink thanking God that they don't have to go in the office for 4 glorious days.
A brilliant day, in other words, for a debate.
Who's going to the drinks? They're about 5 mins away from where I am at the moment but I always find them terrifying.......
@paulwaugh: David Cameron just said broadcasters 'led by BBC' put forward 'a formal offer' of new formats for TV debates/interviews
@KateEMcCann: ..They're yet to agree to full set of new debates. Labour saying should stick to original plan. Broadcasters confirm new deal IS from them
Oh Ed...
While the broadcasters and Ed run around with no idea who is doing what, Cameron is probably sitting there on his ipad playing Candy Crush....
2nd April is Maundy Thursday so the day when everyone is rushing to finish their work before the Easter weekend or off on holiday or sinking into a deep sofa with a large drink thanking God that they don't have to go in the office for 4 glorious days.
A brilliant day, in other words, for a debate.
Who's going to the drinks? They're about 5 mins away from where I am at the moment but I always find them terrifying.......
You should go and say hello, at least for one drink. I'd like to make it one day, but I'm currently a little further than you from the proposed venue!
2nd April is Maundy Thursday so the day when everyone is rushing to finish their work before the Easter weekend or off on holiday or sinking into a deep sofa with a large drink thanking God that they don't have to go in the office for 4 glorious days.
A brilliant day, in other words, for a debate.
Who's going to the drinks? They're about 5 mins away from where I am at the moment but I always find them terrifying.......
2nd April is Maundy Thursday so the day when everyone is rushing to finish their work before the Easter weekend or off on holiday or sinking into a deep sofa with a large drink thanking God that they don't have to go in the office for 4 glorious days.
A brilliant day, in other words, for a debate.
Who's going to the drinks? They're about 5 mins away from where I am at the moment but I always find them terrifying.......
sorry, have dinner at the shop today. otherwise would go.
"Trinity Mirror - the owner and publisher of the Daily Mirror and the Sunday Mirror - has said it is considering a bid for certain Northern & Shell assets. The confirmation follows a media report suggesting Trinity Mirror could buy the Daily Express newspaper.
The Mirror and Express under one roof? Isn't that against the laws of nature?
2nd April is Maundy Thursday so the day when everyone is rushing to finish their work before the Easter weekend or off on holiday or sinking into a deep sofa with a large drink thanking God that they don't have to go in the office for 4 glorious days.
A brilliant day, in other words, for a debate.
Who's going to the drinks? They're about 5 mins away from where I am at the moment but I always find them terrifying.......
I'm hoping to go in about 30 minutes or so if work behaves itself. They're about 10 minutes walk from me.
@paulwaugh: David Cameron just said broadcasters 'led by BBC' put forward 'a formal offer' of new formats for TV debates/interviews
@KateEMcCann: ..They're yet to agree to full set of new debates. Labour saying should stick to original plan. Broadcasters confirm new deal IS from them
Oh Ed...
It's plain to see who has won and who has lost.
PM on radio 4 just said broadcasters have said the original deal is on the table.
What a waste of time debates with seven (or eight) leaders is going to be.
For example, a question such as how will you close the NHS funding gap doesn't make sense when the leaders of parties from Wales, Scotland and Ireland will want to talk about their own NHS funding rather than the funding of the English NHS which MPs in Westminster can vote on.
Maybe it doesn't matter anyway because with 90 minutes and seven or eight leaders they will each get less than 10 minutes each allowing time for the questions to be put. Just enough time to repeat the party slogan a few times.
"Trinity Mirror - the owner and publisher of the Daily Mirror and the Sunday Mirror - has said it is considering a bid for certain Northern & Shell assets. The confirmation follows a media report suggesting Trinity Mirror could buy the Daily Express newspaper.
The Mirror and Express under one roof? Isn't that against the laws of nature?
I can't even imagine how that would work....also aren't the Mirror likely to be quite a bit lighter in the pockets fairly soon?
@Freggles Conservative private poll (probably), if things don't shift Dave's way soon he might have to do all three. At the moment all he has done is accept the first one which he could have agreed to last month.
"There is widespread confusion. None of the smaller parties who would appear in the so-called “challengers debate” appear to have heard of the change in the rules."
@patrickwintour: Either Cameron has turned an exploratory talk into formal offer, or BBC struck private deal with Tories ahead of talking to other parties
The most striking thing is surely that it looks as if there has been major collusion between Cameron and Clegg re this new plan.
I guess despite everything they still get along pretty well personally, which would help secure things quicker and more privately than formally between parties.
I've taken more than one or two stylistic influences from antifrank! But the analysis is new :-)
That is really valuable analysis and I know it will have taken you a long time. I'm going to need to spend some time making sure that I understand it correctly. Your point that not all Lib Dem votes are personal is a very important one, and one that no one has properly modelled up till now. It's one of the leading imponderables of the election just how much the Lib Dems can frame local battles on the basis of personalities rather than parties.
Agreed, great post. A good précis of the peculiar limitations of national polling data where Lib Dems are the defending incumbents. As noted below, I live in one of your supermarginal holds; I may be wrong but with my (limited) experience in the seat so far I'd be quite surprised to see the Tories take it and wouldn't call it as close as you have.
My gut tells me they'll end up closer to 30 than 25. I see one or even two more holds in Scotland, and they could possibly make a gain in Watford. And if TV debates happen, I think there'll be a slight boost (based on the fact that public opinion can't get much worse, and NC is now the most practised leader of the lot in public-facing debate).
Very interesting analysis of LibDem marginals by Casino.
I have a higher retention of LibDems in marginals :-80% rather than Casino's 68% with 10% going to Labour and 10% to Greens.
I have a lower retention of LibDems in non-marginals :- 20% rather than Casino's 35% with 40% going to Labour, 20% going Green, 13% to Con and 7% to UKIP.
I also have UKIP taking 19% of Con and 6% of Lab. Green taking 2% of Con and 6% of Lab. SNP taking 32% of Lab and 38% of LD.
This is based on cross-tabs and when calculated across all constituencies leads to the ELBOW shares. It also gives 30 LibDem seats although one of them (Berwick) only has a majority of 37.
I had planned to go to the drinks, but unfortunately I've torn some of the ligaments in my ankle. It's my own fault, I was trying to learn to use a solowheel.
Comments
For Nick Clegg things can always get worse.
Con 33 (+5) Lab 32 (-3) LD 7 (+1) UKIP 17 (-1) Greens 4 (-3)
http://www.tnsglobal.com/uk/press-release/labour-and-the-conservatives-neck-and-neck
LibDems agree to new #tvdebates proposals: 'Nick Clegg will take part in the events that he's been invited to'. Ball in Miliband court
@KateEMcCann: ..They're yet to agree to full set of new debates. Labour saying should stick to original plan. Broadcasters confirm new deal IS from them
Oh Ed...
@JGForsyth: Lib Dems clear that they prefer the current offer to the broadcasters’ previous proposal. So, both coalition parties signed up
Clegg will hugely prefer revised plan.
It then becomes (Cameron + Clegg) v Miliband
Broadcasters surely then bound to go with the option which 2 out of 3 of the main leaders prefer.
Clegg is huge winner here - I reckon this could well be worth an extra LD seat or two.
I can think of 4 events where punches were thrown in the workplace / or after work but involving employees of companies
50% led to a sacking and 1 I think there was no action taken at all.
.
Boundary changes - and reduction in the number of MPs would have happened. That alone would have allowed a few more risks to be taken, as re-election would have been that bit easier to contemplate.
Syria might have been a very different foreign policy situation, although I suspect enough Tories would still have rebelled to again block any involvement. Anti-terror legislation would have more teeth - although this means the security services would probably have gotten their way on more occasions, to the wider detriment of all our civil liberties perhaps. One area where the Coalition may have been to the wider benefit.
I think Osborne might have pursued a more aggressive policy to lure high net worth individuals to the UK. I am sure he would be happy to cut top tax rates below 45% if after five years the top 30% or 35% of all tax was paid by the top 1% of taxpayers, rather than the current 27%. Currently he would have to do that over the dead bodies of Clegg, Cable and Alexander for starters.
Cameron would still have pushed ahead with gay marriage. And foreign aid. It is just who he is. He thinks it the right thing to do. I happen to think posterity will hold him in high regard for it too.
Hard to see NHS changes being much different, although there are those who think the LibDems got in the mix to no great benefit.
Nothing much would be different with regard to Scotland. Although with a completely free hand, he might have negotiated a deal that would have stuffed Labour. In its absence, Labour have done the job very nicely as it is...
Which brings us to immigration and Europe. He would have had a free hand to press ahead with a Yes/No referendum this Parliament. Perhaps on polling day this year. Five years of negotiations for Europe to make some meaningful concessions. Or not. The great unknowable is whether Cameron would have concluded so little was on offer that he would recommend Out. But in Brussels, they only have to think he might.
It would probably have been much easier to shoot UKIP's fox. No defections. No presence in Westminster. And without UKIP, and the economy as is, he would be looking at an easy win in May with an increased majority.
Maybe.
A brilliant day, in other words, for a debate.
Who's going to the drinks? They're about 5 mins away from where I am at the moment but I always find them terrifying.......
And Labour still trying to spin they thought this offer also kept the other original debates.
Just how stupid do they think people are?
"What do you think Cameron would have done differently had he won a majority?"
Cameron would not have increased the personal allowance above £10,000. He said it could not be done at the 2010 debates but it was a Lib Dem red line.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/0/formula1/31930827
"Trinity Mirror - the owner and publisher of the Daily Mirror and the Sunday Mirror - has said it is considering a bid for certain Northern & Shell assets.
The confirmation follows a media report suggesting Trinity Mirror could buy the Daily Express newspaper.
The Mirror and Express under one roof? Isn't that against the laws of nature?
Not sure the debates will be a great win for Clegg. They will remind people he still exists.......
http://uk.reuters.com/article/2015/03/16/uk-ecb-policy-draghi-idUKKBN0MC24C20150316
On a side note with April fast approaching and unused ISA allowance to use I am seeing absolutely no opportunities for purchases in my S&S ISA.
For example, a question such as how will you close the NHS funding gap doesn't make sense when the leaders of parties from Wales, Scotland and Ireland will want to talk about their own NHS funding rather than the funding of the English NHS which MPs in Westminster can vote on.
Maybe it doesn't matter anyway because with 90 minutes and seven or eight leaders they will each get less than 10 minutes each allowing time for the questions to be put. Just enough time to repeat the party slogan a few times.
It's just too much of a coincidence that it is perfect for both of them.
Someone telling porkies
Conservative private poll (probably), if things don't shift Dave's way soon he might have to do all three.
At the moment all he has done is accept the first one which he could have agreed to last month.
Hur hur hur.....
http://www.newstatesman.com/politics/2015/03/tv-debates-will-miliband-and-cameron-ever-meet-screen
Now the rest are left squealing.
Lucky for them Dave isn't any good at this negotiation lark, eh?
Clue is in the Title
There should be a debate about the debate about the debates.
However, he will be forced to talk about the economy in his reply to the Chancellor's budget speech on Wednesday. What can he say?
I have a higher retention of LibDems in marginals :-80% rather than Casino's 68% with 10% going to Labour and 10% to Greens.
I have a lower retention of LibDems in non-marginals :- 20% rather than Casino's 35% with 40% going to Labour, 20% going Green, 13% to Con and 7% to UKIP.
I also have UKIP taking 19% of Con and 6% of Lab.
Green taking 2% of Con and 6% of Lab.
SNP taking 32% of Lab and 38% of LD.
This is based on cross-tabs and when calculated across all constituencies leads to the ELBOW shares. It also gives 30 LibDem seats although one of them (Berwick) only has a majority of 37.