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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Latest Lord Ashcroft marginals polling brings bad news for
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Latest Lord Ashcroft marginals polling brings bad news for the Tories
The latest batch of Lord Ashcroft marginals polling is out, and will bring bring great cheer to Labour and much disappointment to the Tories, who would have hoped the national polling trends would feed into the marginals.
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A position I'm sure some of the better punters on here will be familiar with
If Dave can't beat Ed his footnote in Conservative history will be devastating.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-31908431
Cyril Smith child abuse inquiry 'scrapped after his arrest'
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-31920906
Judges sacked for watching porn
Only one thing to do: vote UKIP to get the smell of corruption out of your nostrils.
So the good news? When the election comes some of these people will do what anti Tories have done over the ages and with a clothes peg in hand look at their wallets and decide that they might be better off with the Tories.............
This could concentrate some minds come May 7th, if these voters know they are in marginals.
But the table above certainly suggests that the tories main enemy is not Ed. It is Farage.
Anyway I still think they'll hold those. Have adjusted overall taking £20 @ 2.5 Ed PM and laying £10 liability overall on Lab seats.
Always best to try and be objective, whether on politics or F1. Wish I had that much money spare for betting.
Indeed. Southampton Itchen is the fascinating one for me. UKIP - 20%!...
Mr. W, may do more harm than good. A 2015 vote is utterly incompatible with Cameron's negotiation line, which means abandoning that [dubious as it is anyway], or a 2016 vote which will only make the Kippers think it's not good enough.
I'm going to have a word with my Dad, tell him they are being out ground gamed in Nuneaton.
Relying on things changing, not by a little but by a lot as that is what is required, in the short time left (yes, even acknowledging 'normal' people are not fully engaged yet), is all the Tories have left, but is asking an awful lot.
The odds are completely the wrong way round.
IF the tories want someone to blame for leaking core support, look in the mirror.
Dave made the tories 'progressive'. He took away the 'nasty'. Fine. Live with the consequences.
"What is interesting is that between the last national YouGov survey a fortnight ago and this one there has been the Channel 4 YouGov poll of the marginals which pointed to an overall Tory majority of 54 seats. This seems to indicate the things are working differently in the key seats where the election will be decided and where the parties are putting most of their campaigning effort."
Although, these polls will make the Lab Most Seats/Tory specific-seats even better, most likely.
It seems clear the swing in England is a least 1 and possibly even 2 points higher than across Britain as a whole. That could make a difference of 5 - 10 seats which would be crucial.
A further point is that many commentators, such as Peter Kellner, have argued the Conservatives would get an incumbency boost in these marginals. I haven't seen any polling evidence to support this and in these marginals it seems Labour are marginally out working the Conservatives on the ground.
Finally, I think critiques of marginal polls are valid. However, we have to acknowledge what Ashcroft is doing is unique. The sample size across these constituencies - 8k - is higher than in about 2 months of national telephone polls. That's not to say it will be accurate, but it surely deserves more weight than marginals polls in years gone by that regularly only sampled about 30 - 40 voters per marginal seat.
But I just don't know. It doesn't "feel" right that the Tories 50-60th most marginal seats should be vulnerable when they're level in the polls. But that is what this data says.
Maybe it will just come down to turnout.
UKIP voters seem to me to be very determined to vote UKIP in England though, take a look at Guido/Mail/Telegraph comments. They are normally along the lines of "Fuck off Ed Miliband, I'm voting for Nigel"
There is a well established bias towards the middle in questions, whereby if someone is unsure and they are given 3 options they choose the middle option.
A much better question would a straight - DC v EM one. DC would lead this, but not by the margin suggested by the question Ashcroft used.
Should the Kippers get anywhere near power they will be just as sleazy, corrupt, self-serving, etc... As anybody else...
Infact, as we saw from Tony Blair's piety on "Tory Sleaze" in the 1990's, it's usually the one's who make themselves out to be "purer than pure" that end up being the worst offenders.
http://newstonoone.blogspot.co.uk/2015/03/party-games-constructing-next-government_17.html
"The change in Conservative vote varied by less than two percentage points moving from their weakest to their strongest areas, and they actually underperformed somewhat in their weakest areas relative to the average"
Also, while I welcome the rise of UKIP, if 60+% of people still vote for Lab/Con and maybe 70% LibLabCon, surely the morals of the country will still be effed as the majority won't have taken your cure.
CON 277 seats
LAB 269
SNP 53
LDEM 25
UKIP 4
GRN 1
http://t.co/QHx89sNbkF http://t.co/eMNenEv3ID
Pitt the Younger would be spinning in his grave.
With Ashcroft we're getting seat specific marginal polling, whereas last time we got aggregate marginal polling.
http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/coffeehouse/2015/03/ed-milibands-question-for-the-snp-do-you-feel-lucky-punks/
going to have to be a very bad day for the Lib Dems for Sir Bob to get his P45 I would have thought.
Something rotten clearly did happen in the 70's and 80's and hopefully we'll be able to shed some light on what went on, but it has very little bearing on who I trust with my finances, NHS, job, etc... In the next five years.
As I would prefer Cameron be PM I won't mind getting egg on my face by being proven wrong, but it probably would dent my confidence to make any sort of predictions for a while. Maybe for a few weeks at least.
So hopefully see a few of you there for the 2nd half
Maybe.
For my wife and I we did begin to wonder how much is just talk when they responded to one of our complaints about council services and told us they were getting it sorted - for nothing to happen - but it did get resolved when my wife rang the council directly.
In Colchester the Lib Dems approach seems to be don't vote tory they want to concrete over the entire area..... whilst ignoring all the housebuilding that's gone on / going on / planned already.
As to Labour, tumbleweed.
Might work. Might not. Might be academic.
Especially given the LDs may well change leader post-election, I wouldn't be entirely surprised if the new LDs were willing to work with Labour and demanded ministerial posts.
I'm agree Lab Minority is value, but I don't think it is massively better than EdM PM.
(EDIT: I moved from Man Withington).