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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Nigel Farage’s offer to support a minority Conservative Government is a 2015 referendum
The UK Independence Party leader says that he is willing to make a deal with the Tories on the condition that they hold an EU referendum before Christmas.
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EU vote NEXT YEAR in exchange for Ukip support, Farage tells Cameron
http://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/521754/Support-surges-to-25-percent-for-Farage-Ukip
With everything else that is going on around the election I doubt it will make any difference at all to how people vote.
The truth will out-Cage leader who defended Jihadi John is a terrorist who trained him & attended Syrian terror camps http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2995140/Did-Cage-director-train-Jihadi-John-MoS-uncovers-new-evidence-links-apologists-ISIS-butcher-desert-weapons-camp.html …
Net well
Cameron: -6 (-)
Miliband: -42 (+6)
But he's still a fair way behind Cameron.....
Osborne's not doing too badly either: -4 (+2)
England: -54
Scotland: +8
SNP Part of coalition government - good thing (net)
England: -54
Scotland: +12
Labour should do deal with SNP in hung parliament (net):
England: -36
Scotland: +15
Unless there’s something about, for example, benefits, that we’re not being told!
And, as far as I know the vast majority of EU migrants have jobs and don’t use the British benefit sustem
Mind you an autumn referendum would at least be short compared to the Indyrefs neverendum. It could possibly even be co.bined with another referendum on voting reform and home rule for England.
50 hours
I feel for you after the Leicester FC result yesterday. You must have been to hull and back.
Titter ....
The old ones are the best .... as Mrs JackW is oft to say.
It has been on the cards for months. After the Man U match we did not have another win until 28th Dec.
More time to concentrate on getting my own ARSE into shape for May 7th!
Worse, neither side would be able to pull together a proper campaign, and any decision would be made on emotion rather than fact.
If it is to be done, let it be done right, not quickly.
However adherents should recognize that there is only one true, original and acclaimed worldwide electoral forecaster and it resides within the portals of the Auchenteenach Empire.
Indeed I would say that the issue needs to be lanced very quickly because of the huge economic uncertainty the issue would engender - I'd opt for a summer campaign and a vote in the early autumn around September.
F1: caught most of the race (saw the start but missed the earliest laps after that). Due to that, and sleepiness, I'll put up the post-race piece later today [may well be in the evening].
On-topic: a bloody silly offer. It's not made seriously but to as a tactical point-scoring exercise. Longer is needed for campaigning, not to mention the fact Cameron will [also disingenuously] claim he needs time to renegotiate.
1. It turns the debate to Europe, which is UKIP's strongest card. Europe is also a dreadful card for Cameron, Labour and everyone else. There's also a fair chance they'll be bad news from Europe during the campaign, simply because there usually is.
2. Farage has named his red-line issue (which we knew anyway) but it still sounds like a reveal, and gives the appearance of being upfront about things.
3. The other parties have yet to reveal which of their manifesto pledges are red-line issues; they will come under great pressure to do so during the campaign as journalists and voters try work out what they fundamentally stand for.
We shouldn't allow Nigel Farage or Charles Kennedy to go on a huge pub crawl and then live the life of riley on means tested benefits and food banks.
Disgraceful.
This is actually the only way to switch the probability of winning an 'out' vote to over 50%.
For the last several days we've seen wall to wall Jeremy Clarkson. He's certainly popular with his followers as can be seen by Guido's petition but for the vast majority who can't bear that sort of blokishness he cuts a pretty unattractive figure.
What these two people have in common is that they're everyone's idea of the archetypal Tory. And they're friends of Dave. One from the 'louche Chipping Norton set' the other married to his friend and advisor Michael Gove.
I don't believe it's just chance that Miliband's stock is starting to rise as Dave's is starting to fall. For a lot of people the 'nasty party' never really went away. But for others old memories are just starting to resurface.
And Ed? I thought he was a clumsy joke but now I'm starting to think perhaps he is just a 'straight sort of guy'
I actually think it's a bad move and should be something that is encouraged rather than enforced. It also has potential to scare the horses close to the election
If the requirement for annunity goes, then as night follows day the taxpayer is entitled to collect tax on pension contributions. Expect pension tax relief to go the way of MIRAS in the next parliament once the treasury needs money - and not just for higher rate taxpayers, although they will be hit first.
Other than Tuesday's ARSE, we are in for an exciting week
ICM
YouGovs
Populus
Ashcroft Monday
Ashcroft revisited marginal
Will we be any clearer by this time next week on the polling evidence, I doubt it.
The problems with it from Cameron's point of view are:
1) He has to go back on his promise to do "renegotiation" before a referendum if he's PM.
2) A clean in-out referendum would split the Tory Party.
3) Once the Tories were damaged and they'd had their referendum, UKIP could pull the plug, resulting in either a new election with a split party or Labour taking over instead.
Ed Miliband hasn't made any promises like that, and his main objection to a referendum is that the uncertainty is bad for jobs. If that's right then there's a lot to be said for doing it quick and getting it over with. They have the referendum, "in" probably wins, the Tories fight like ferrets in a sack, Ed Miliband gets to look Prime Ministerial for 6 months then UKIP pull the plug and you have a new election.
But, and I really don't follow Kipper internal politics as they are irrelevant up here, didn't Farage say that he would only support the Conservatives if DC and GO were not in charge?
There will, therefore, be no disappointment (yet) that the renegotiation doesn't live up to expectations. And Farage will be fighting against a chimera: he'll be campaigning against something he doesn't know exists. It's also hard for Tory MPs, who have said "I'd vote for out if we didn't get the concessions we ask for" to campaign for "Out".
They want to be the SNP of the UK. Losing the referendum enables them to secure the vote of the third of the UK that want "out under any circumstances".
And therefore increases the chance that Farage gets what he really wants, i.e. the keys to number 10.
Nivedita @ExSecular 20h20 hours ago
Good news for Britain - it may become Islamic nation within 20 years @RichardDawkins @TRobinsonNewEra
http://speisa.com/modules/articles/index.php/item.204/britain-may-be-an-islamic-nation-within-20-years.html …
To my mind the essential criteria here is that the dead hand of the state should not determine how your money is spent.
The money is taxed in retirement as either an annuity or another form of drawdown. If it is all taken at one go, then a lot of it will be taxed at higher rate. The Treasury gains (at least in the short term).
To succeed OUT would need to build significant business support, singularly lacking at present, and to be able to present a scenario in which a serious effort at renegotiation had failed. The Tories could become badly split by an early referendum though, and perhaps that is what Farage is after.
But I guess "Britain increasingly godless country" doesn't fit the narrative.
A good Sunday start for Morris.
And why would Farage not want real political power?
A 35% voting block would make him the most likely next Prime Minister.
And that's a much bigger prize than a slightly different relationship with our neighbours.
Ed Miliband a straight sort of guy? After how he grew up in Browns office then gained leadership?
Colour me a bit sceptical.
He will be lucky to get a seat in parliament let alone the keys to number 10.
I, too, have a theory.
I think Ukip know that Cameron is very Pro-Europe and won't accept their offer anyway. He could have arranged to begin negotiating two or three years ago and we'd have voted by now if he'd wanted. It was always a political fudge.
They're calling his bluff knowing he will fold.
Or the offer is aimed at Cameron's successor.
My anecdotal reading of the voters is that they think ... common market - good, political union - not so good. So Cameron may come back with a "no more political union in our lifetime, I have a piece of paper signed by Herr Juncker."
It might be enough.
What is realistically achievable is a memorendum of understanding between the biggest five EU countries on changes (that many of them also want, by the way) on benefits tourism and the like. Plus we might get a specific opt-out on the ECHR and certain parts of the CAP. The latter part could take effect immediately, and it would be agreed to "ignore" the existing EU treaty on the benefits issue until the next one includes them in 2022.
What is the point of the Conservative Party if it is not much interested in the defence of the realm? That this should be a valid question, only eight weeks from a general election, illustrates that the Tory high command has got itself into a terrible mess of its own making.
Iain Martin castigates Cammo and Co. Blimey, thats a turn up for the book!
"A 35% voting block would make him the most likely next Prime Minister."
I don't think even British Leyland in their heyday produced that number of white vans
Go back to bed, you old fogey, and get up on the right side for once. Your feeble jokes are just that, feeble.
"Herr Merkel" doesn't fit the quote.
Ed Miliband Will Never Be Prime Minister
Anyway, mostly done the post-race piece, but as I'm rather tired and will be doing things during the day it'll probably be up this evening.
2) The DUP are going to be much keener on cash to avoid having to make cuts in Northern Ireland, everyone knows that and so if a cheque is wafted under the DUP's nose, they're likely to shaft UKIP.
Apart from that, it's a plan.
By the way, restrictions on benefits for migrants would be *extremely* popular in Germany too, and would allow Frau Merkel to push back against the AfD.
So would losing a EU referendum.
UKIP agree on little else, veering eratically between libertarianism and welfare statism, depending which side of the bed Nigel has got out of.
Mind you I suppose it's a bit crowded in the Ukip bed this morning what with Nigel wanting to jump in the sack with the Conservatives and DUP if Cameron flashes his referendum stockings at Farage.
"Purple and Orange isn't the greatest colour scheme."
What's happened to psychedelia??
https://images1.pixlis.com/background-image-plaid-checkered-seamless-tileable-psychedelic-purple-orange-peel-235ju3.png
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eKXfqpg-Q-k
Which Tory MP would commit electoral suicide by opposing it?
Which is unlikely if they are substantially in the minority
Its about time the BBC really got its come uppance.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2995106/Astonishing-remarks-Gear-affair-senior-BBC-boss-claims-Clarkson-like-Savile.html
You'll have to advise us of your youthful indiscretions in the back of a Morris Minor after the PB watershed - it is Sunday after all.
It would be suicide to copy the LDs!
http://www.mirror.co.uk/tv/tv-news/nigel-farage-not-want-prime-4817391
They had a choice not to enter a formal coalition.
Just like they had a choice over tuition fees.
I hope you are not an historian.
SoftBunty @BuntyBagshawe 3m3 minutes ago
Really? Nobody dislikes ice-cream do they? Maybe it offends them?
http://elderofziyon.blogspot.co.il/2015/03/burning-israeli-ice-cream-in-ramallah.html …
It might be unrealistic of Cameron to expect EU institutions to be so quick. But the reality is they wont want the UK to leave the EU. But for Cameron to and come back with nothing is a big two fingers, and might end up with the PM himself campaigning to leave (though unlikely).
People who have wanted a referendum have waited an awful long time, would UKIP really block the opportunity for a 2017 referendum, because he insists on a 2015 one, and therefore allow Labour in with no referendum?
I entirely agree. On the other hand I could see Cameron best suited to running a shell game in a circus. That's just my opinion of course.
A little bit public though, and I am sure that both comfort and dignity are better preserved in a carriage and four with the curtains drawn.
Farage's best bet in winning a referendum is on an unreformed EU. Ideally from the BOO point of view, it would come after a failed renegotiation but coming after no renegotiation is second-best and would have the side-effect of splitting the Tory vote (and, to a lesser extent, the Labour vote if not the Labour Party).
But I rather suspect Nick has nailed this - it's more about Farage playing the media game than anything more complex. The details only matter down the line and he'll be gambling that if it does put off the odd Lab-UKIP switcher, it'll be compensated for by the rise in profile.
Very popular once but as seen by the total lack of interest from
Sky and ITV in him no longer touchable by any major TV station
Bullying, racist petrolhead dinosaurs may get 800k muppets to support him
but for the rest of us 60 million Brits..hes not our kind of people
Dave is his only famous supporter and Dave will now be the only
channel you will see the fat bore on in the future
The only viable options in 2010 were a unstable minority Conservative government or the Con/LibDem Coalition - Some choice.
The "choice" over tuiton fees is also a false one. In government the Tories would not agree the LibDem policy and out of government the LibDems clearly couldn't implement the policy.
UKIP referendum question “Do you wish to be a free, independent sovereign democracy?”