"The Conservatives don’t just have to be ahead but well ahead to win on seats, and even further ahead to form a government."
I strongly believe that Scotland, and the dramatic fall of the LibDems. has changed this "conventional wisdom".
Certainly my own model suggests this and it looks like others do to. A 1% CON lead (if SNP take 35-40 seats; LD and Green get 6-9% each and UKIP around 14-16%) should be enough to see CON edge ahead on seats.
I enjoyed your model, but think JackW is right in looking at trends in his JackW dozen, as there are likely to be different swings between different parties in different regions. Only 50 minutes until Jack displays his ARSE.
Is there reason to suspect that differential swing is based around regions, rather than say type of seat ?
One model might be to say that seats in the north might swing in a different direction or to a different extent due to regional politics.
Equally one might expect different sorts of swing between say rural seats, industrial seats, inner city seats etc.
I have been tinkering with an idea for a model which is based around movement being more likely in seats in
I think that is true to an extent, but in England and Wales the two major factors will be how former LD voters split, and where UKIP picks up support. I can see these will vary considerably regionally. .
I don't actually think UKIP will do very well in true Blue seats. That is, safe, prosperous Conservative seats in London, the Home Counties, and the rural North and Midlands. They'll do much better, obviously, in more working class Conservative seats down the East Coast, and in Devon and Cornwall (where they'll take as many votes from Lib Dems as Conservatives). They'll also do well in a lot of working class Labour seats, outside of Scotland, London, and core cities.
I would include the saxon shore and Devon and Cornwall in my broadbrush terms Southeast and southwest.
True blue home county seats where the golf club set can vent their europhobia safely and WVM has a business competing with immigrants will get both ends of the kipper spectrum.
I think Jack is right to have the kippers on 2 seats, but they are likely to have 50+ second places. I think the kippers do not yet know themselves where their strongest areas will be.
Suzanne Eveans was tacking left on welfare reform/spare room subsidy last night on AQ. If she writes that into the manifesto it may annoy WVM more than anything.
"The Conservatives don’t just have to be ahead but well ahead to win on seats, and even further ahead to form a government."
I strongly believe that Scotland, and the dramatic fall of the LibDems. has changed this "conventional wisdom".
Certainly my own model suggests this and it looks like others do to. A 1% CON lead (if SNP take 35-40 seats; LD and Green get 6-9% each and UKIP around 14-16%) should be enough to see CON edge ahead on seats.
I enjoyed your model, but think JackW is right in looking at trends in his JackW dozen, as there are likely to be different swings between different parties in different regions. Only 50 minutes until Jack displays his ARSE.
I don't actually think UKIP will do very well in true Blue seats. That is, safe, prosperous Conservative seats in London, the Home Counties, and the rural North and Midlands. They'll do much better, obviously, in more working class Conservative seats down the East Coast, and in Devon and Cornwall (where they'll take as many votes from Lib Dems as Conservatives). They'll also do well in a lot of working class Labour seats, outside of Scotland, London, and core cities.
I agree. Like most new parties UKIP will find most of its support in the dispossessed, the disappointed and those who feel ignored by a world that has not given them a fair crack of the whip. South East coast and the grubbier end of the Thames estuary the best bets for that, not the Home Counties.
The LDs tended to do well in seats where one or other of Lab/Con were weak. I suspect UKIP will see a similar effect.
In the north, in Wales, in Scotland the Conservative Party doesn't seem to get the 'not Labour' vote. SNP get it in Scotland, UKIP could get it in the North and Wales.
Yes, they could pick up votes there and for the avoidance of doubt they will pick up votes in the Home Counties too but I was focussing on where they are likely to pick up seats. I don't see them winning any seats in the north this time around although they may well set themselves up as the future anti Labour challenger in some seats.
TBH, I still think UKIP will be at 2 but if I am wrong it is likely to be in the areas I indicated.
"One of the facts of betting is it doesn't matter what you want to happen; the only thing that matters is what will happen."
Of course!
However the success of the betting industry is incumbent on more people people being wrong than right, generally the figure that seems to be bandied around for regular 'winners' is as low as 5%. Are you one of the 95% who are usually wrong, or one of the 5% always playing the short odds.
As to whether you are pumping for your side, might I suggest you get your copy independently reviewed before publication to clarify that. Your essays sounds like it is right out of the CCH[Q]
I'm generally a winner on political betting. I don't play short odds as a rule. Most often I look for things that I expect to happen at odds-against and more often than not they do happen.
But if you disagree with my analysis, let's have yours. What do you think the major issues and events will be (if any) between now and May 7 to move the polls, and why.
The breaking news is that WIND is reporting to the JNN the contents of the latest ARSE with added APLOMB 2015 General Election and "JackW Dozen" Projections. (Changes From 10th March Projection) :
Con 312 (-2) .. Lab 250 (+2) .. LibDem 31 (+1) .. SNP 32 .. PC 2 .. NI 18 .. UKIP 2 (-1) .. Respect 1 .. Green 1 .. Ind 0 .. Speaker 1
Conservatives 16 seats short of a majority ......................................................................................
"JackW Dozen" - 13 seats that will shape the General Election result :
Bury North - Con Hold Pudsey - Likely Con Hold Broxtowe - TCTC Warwickshire North - TCTC Cambridge - LibDem Hold Ipswich - Con Hold Watford - Likely LibDem Gain Croydon Central - Con Hold Enfield North - TCTC Cornwall North - TCTC Great Yarmouth - Con Hold Vale of Glamorgan - Con Hold Ochil and South Perthshire - SNP Gain
Changes From 10 Mar - No Changes
TCTC - Too Close To Call - Less than 500 votes Likely Hold/Gain - 500 - 2500 votes Gain/Hold - Over 2500 .......................................................................................
ARSE is sponsored by Auchentennach Fine Pies (Est 1745)
WIND - Whimsical Independent News Division JNN - Jacobite News Network ARSE - Anonymous Random Selection of Electors APLOMB - Auchentennach Pies Leading Outsales Mainland Britain
I'd put Watford down as TCTC, Enfield North and Broxtowe as likely Lab., and Croydon Central as likely Con.
Not too much between us really Sean.
Watford is fairly close to TCTC and both Enfield North and Broxtowe have only recently edged into TCTC from Likely Lab GAIN.
Croydon Central is also on the cusp of Con HOLD/Likely HOLD.
"The Conservatives don’t just have to be ahead but well ahead to win on seats, and even further ahead to form a government."
I strongly believe that Scotland, and the dramatic fall of the LibDems. has changed this "conventional wisdom".
Certainly my own model suggests this and it looks like others do to. A 1% CON lead (if SNP take 35-40 seats; LD and Green get 6-9% each and UKIP around 14-16%) should be enough to see CON edge ahead on seats.
I enjoyed your model, but think JackW is right in looking at trends in his JackW dozen, as there are likely to be different swings between different parties in different regions. Only 50 minutes until Jack displays his ARSE.
Equally one might expect different sorts of swing between say rural seats, industrial seats, inner city seats etc.
I have been tinkering with an idea for a model which is based around movement being more likely in seats in
I think that is true to an extent, but in England and Wales the two major factors will be how former LD voters split, and where UKIP picks up support. I can see these will vary considerably regionally. .
I don't actually think UKIP will do very well in true Blue seats. That is, safe, prosperous Conservative seats in London, the Home Counties, and the rural North and Midlands. They'll do much better, obviously, in more working class Conservative seats down the East Coast, and in Devon and Cornwall (where they'll take as many votes from Lib Dems as Conservatives). They'll also do well in a lot of working class Labour seats, outside of Scotland, London, and core cities.
I would include the saxon shore and Devon and Cornwall in my broadbrush terms Southeast and southwest.
True blue home county seats where the golf club set can vent their europhobia safely and WVM has a business competing with immigrants will get both ends of the kipper spectrum.
I think Jack is right to have the kippers on 2 seats, but they are likely to have 50+ second places. I think the kippers do not yet know themselves where their strongest areas will be.
Suzanne Eveans was tacking left on welfare reform/spare room subsidy last night on AQ. If she writes that into the manifesto it may annoy WVM more than anything.
I think the golf club set will mostly remain loyal to the Tories, despite agreeing with UKIP on a lot. That's based simply on my conversations with people of my parents' generation and outlook. They have many reservations about Cameron, but they've voted Tory all their lives.
Well done David you managed to mention that the deficit is falling while omitting the fact that this government is hundreds of billions behind schedule on deficit reduction.
I am not sure why we have to rehearse this every couple of days.
Osborne could have cut harder, but he couldn't have cut harder and got re-elected. People are crying about the non-existent cuts as it is, one suspects in many cases more on the basis of media hysteria about cuts, and Labour scare stories about cuts than personal experience.
Precisely. Every single failing in public services is now seen through a prism of 'cuts', which is how labour want it to be seen. Even things that happened in the past are blamed on the 'cuts' of today.
I remember the first couple of years of the coalition, in which spending wasnt cut, or even budgeted to cut. Public spending had never being higher in recent times, and was significantly above the mean levels under Labour, even when taking into account the massive off the cliff deficit spending post 2008.
Tim on here in the past used to regularly point to every failing, every rise in unemployment, quarter of negative growth, poor inflation indicator. Every hospital death, every casualty in a school etc. All of it was due to that evil George Osborne's cuts. When it was pointed out that spending is higher, and not because it was off track, it always was budgted to be for the first two years, he just denied it and repeated the mantra.
Two years later, he then said the reason why we started to get economic growth, rising employment and low inflation was because Osborne hadnt cut after all because he wasnt very good.
The breaking news is that WIND is reporting to the JNN the contents of the latest ARSE with added APLOMB 2015 General Election and "JackW Dozen" Projections. (Changes From 10th March Projection) :
Con 312 (-2) .. Lab 250 (+2) .. LibDem 31 (+1) .. SNP 32 .. PC 2 .. NI 18 .. UKIP 2 (-1) .. Respect 1 .. Green 1 .. Ind 0 .. Speaker 1
Conservatives 16 seats short of a majority ......................................................................................
"JackW Dozen" - 13 seats that will shape the General Election result :
Bury North - Con Hold Pudsey - Likely Con Hold Broxtowe - TCTC Warwickshire North - TCTC Cambridge - LibDem Hold Ipswich - Con Hold Watford - Likely LibDem Gain Croydon Central - Con Hold Enfield North - TCTC Cornwall North - TCTC Great Yarmouth - Con Hold Vale of Glamorgan - Con Hold Ochil and South Perthshire - SNP Gain
Changes From 10 Mar - No Changes
TCTC - Too Close To Call - Less than 500 votes Likely Hold/Gain - 500 - 2500 votes Gain/Hold - Over 2500 .......................................................................................
ARSE is sponsored by Auchentennach Fine Pies (Est 1745)
WIND - Whimsical Independent News Division JNN - Jacobite News Network ARSE - Anonymous Random Selection of Electors APLOMB - Auchentennach Pies Leading Outsales Mainland Britain
I'd put Watford down as TCTC, Enfield North and Broxtowe as likely Lab., and Croydon Central as likely Con.
I'd agree on Broxtowe. Can't see there being TCTC.
Last April, Ashcroft had Labour leading by 14%. Since then, there's been a shift of 6-7% to the Conservatives in polls. I think Nick is right that he's about 7% ahead. Basically, any reduction in the Conservatives' lead over Labour, compared to 2010, sees this go.
There's nearly 9,000 2010 LD votes to be re-distributed (16%). I guess that around half of them will desert the party this time, a few % to Greens who have had a candidate in place for several months, but most to Labour. UKIP have also had a candidate in place for a while.
"The Conservatives don’t just have to be ahead but well ahead to win on seats, and even further ahead to form a government."
I strongly believe that Scotland, and the dramatic fall of the LibDems. has changed this "conventional wisdom".
Certainly my own model suggests this and it looks like others do to. A 1% CON lead (if SNP take 35-40 seats; LD and Green get 6-9% each and UKIP around 14-16%) should be enough to see CON edge ahead on seats.
I enjoyed your model, but think JackW is right in looking at trends in his JackW dozen, as there are likely to be different swings between different parties in different regions. Only 50 minutes until Jack displays his ARSE.
Is there reason to suspect that differential swing is based around regions, rather than say type of seat ?
One model might be to say that seats in the north might swing in a different direction or to a different extent due to regional politics.
Equally one might expect different sorts of swing between say rural seats, industrial seats, inner city seats etc.
I have been tinkering with an idea for a model which is based around movement being more likely in seats in
I don't actually think UKIP will do very well in true Blue seats. That is, safe, prosperous Conservative seats in London, the Home Counties, and the rural North and Midlands. They'll do much better, obviously, in more working class Conservative seats down the East Coast, and in Devon and Cornwall (where they'll take as many votes from Lib Dems as Conservatives). They'll also do well in a lot of working class Labour seats, outside of Scotland, London, and core cities.
I agree. Like most new parties UKIP will find most of its support in the dispossessed, the disappointed and those who feel ignored by a world that has not given them a fair crack of the whip. South East coast and the grubbier end of the Thames estuary the best bets for that, not the Home Counties.
I agree up to a point, but this is mitigated by the fact that the disaffected and disenchanted are less likely to vote at all. I think that it is easy to underestimate the pockets of deprivation in Home Counties seats. Often the resentment here is felt strongly because of the proximity to wealth.
Well done David you managed to mention that the deficit is falling while omitting the fact that this government is hundreds of billions behind schedule on deficit reduction.
I am not sure why we have to rehearse this every couple of days.
Osborne could have cut harder, but he couldn't have cut harder and got re-elected. People are crying about the non-existent cuts as it is, one suspects in many cases more on the basis of media hysteria about cuts, and Labour scare stories about cuts than personal experience.
Who remembers Too Far, Too fast?
Me!
And Ed Ball's flat lining gesture at every PMQs before the economy started to boom.
And that idiot Blanchflower's forecasts of 5m unemployed being parroted by Miliband.
With stories of industrial scale child rape appearing daily and government commissioners being sent to run Rotherham council, where her good friend Lord Ahmed is the most prominent 'community leader', lets see what our former Communities Minister has to say on the issue:
Lots of stuff about Palestine, Ramallah evidently been regarded as more important than Rotherham.
She seems to have forgotten the advice her father gave her:
' “He said to me: ‘Sayeeda, what is the point in being in a position of leadership if you don’t lead on issues that are so fundamental? This is so stomach churningly sick that you should have been out there condemning it as loudly as you could. Uniquely, you are in a position to show leadership on this.' I thought to myself, he’s absolutely right.” '
I agree. Like most new parties UKIP will find most of its support in the dispossessed, the disappointed and those who feel ignored by a world that has not given them a fair crack of the whip. South East coast and the grubbier end of the Thames estuary the best bets for that, not the Home Counties.
I agree up to a point, but this is mitigated by the fact that the disaffected and disenchanted are less likely to vote at all. I think that it is easy to underestimate the pockets of deprivation in Home Counties seats. Often the resentment here is felt strongly because of the proximity to wealth.
I am not sure how much we can rely on their uncertainly to vote. Many of the disaffected and disenchanted haven't had a party they felt represented them before, as there was no kipper candidate standing in their seat, and in all likelihood the public profile of the kippers was so low they didn't know they existed. Lots of voters who found nothing to vote for in the existing parties are now discovering they have a candidate closer to their views standing in their area. I would say don't underestimate the motivation of a pissed off person.
I see that Flightpath didn't retract the racially derogatory term he used on the previous thread.
Not surprising, you often find that people who throw accusations of racism around are doing it to hide their own prejudices.
Maybe because its only derogatory in the eyes of people who are looking for offence?
I suspect Cape Coloureds (and people of mixed African/European race all over southern African who idenfity themselves as Coloured might consider it highly derogatory that you consider their identity derogatory.
In fact the whole thing caputures in one word how the racial equality industry go completely over the top resulting in something of an electoral backlash against them.
As with so many things, insitutions and movements spring up to oppose a widespread injustice. Unfortunately when that injustice is largely disposed of, the institution/movement dosen't pat itself on the back and disband itself but loses members and is left with the true believers, the fanatics and the corrupt who insist on ever more trivial things to take offence over to justify their continued existence.
I see that Flightpath didn't retract the racially derogatory term he used on the previous thread.
Not surprising, you often find that people who throw accusations of racism around are doing it to hide their own prejudices.
Maybe because its only derogatory in the eyes of people who are looking for offence?
I suspect Cape Coloureds (and people of mixed African/European race all over southern African who idenfity themselves as Coloured might consider it highly derogatory that you consider their identity derogatory.
In fact the whole thing caputures in one word how the racial equality industry go completely over the top resulting in something of an electoral backlash against them
The National Association for the Advancement of Colored People might be a little surprised to find their their name is offensive as well.
The breaking news is that WIND is reporting to the JNN the contents of the latest ARSE with added APLOMB 2015 General Election and "JackW Dozen" Projections. (Changes From 10th March Projection) :
Con 312 (-2) .. Lab 250 (+2) .. LibDem 31 (+1) .. SNP 32 .. PC 2 .. NI 18 .. UKIP 2 (-1) .. Respect 1 .. Green 1 .. Ind 0 .. Speaker 1
Conservatives 16 seats short of a majority ......................................................................................
"JackW Dozen" - 13 seats that will shape the General Election result :
Bury North - Con Hold Pudsey - Likely Con Hold Broxtowe - TCTC Warwickshire North - TCTC Cambridge - LibDem Hold Ipswich - Con Hold Watford - Likely LibDem Gain Croydon Central - Con Hold Enfield North - TCTC Cornwall North - TCTC Great Yarmouth - Con Hold Vale of Glamorgan - Con Hold Ochil and South Perthshire - SNP Gain
Changes From 10 Mar - No Changes
TCTC - Too Close To Call - Less than 500 votes Likely Hold/Gain - 500 - 2500 votes Gain/Hold - Over 2500 .......................................................................................
ARSE is sponsored by Auchentennach Fine Pies (Est 1745)
WIND - Whimsical Independent News Division JNN - Jacobite News Network ARSE - Anonymous Random Selection of Electors APLOMB - Auchentennach Pies Leading Outsales Mainland Britain
I'd put Watford down as TCTC, Enfield North and Broxtowe as likely Lab., and Croydon Central as likely Con.
Not too much between us really Sean.
Watford is fairly close to TCTC and both Enfield North and Broxtowe have only recently edged into TCTC from Likely Lab GAIN.
Croydon Central is also on the cusp of Con HOLD/Likely HOLD.
One thing that strikes me about your ARSE (and MACARSE) is how little volatility there is. How much change has there been since the first one with the JackW dozen?
Hats off to the surgeon who worked out which malignant bits of Nigel Farage had to be removed. That must have been a complex operation.
You are nearly as obsessed about Farage and Kippers as Flightpath is. I notice you didn't answer the post on the previous thread about whether you would accept a democratically elected UKIP government and if not, on what basis would you put your views as being superior to the electorate.
David Herdson, This is the first time, in a long time, that you've written a thread intro that is straight from the MSM and the lab/lib/con stable. You assume, as do all MSM commentators, that UKIP will have no impact on the forthcoming GE, and can safely be ignored. I think you, and they, are going to be flumoxed by the eventual voting outcome.
I agree. Like most new parties UKIP will find most of its support in the dispossessed, the disappointed and those who feel ignored by a world that has not given them a fair crack of the whip. South East coast and the grubbier end of the Thames estuary the best bets for that, not the Home Counties.
I agree up to a point, but this is mitigated by the fact that the disaffected and disenchanted are less likely to vote at all. I think that it is easy to underestimate the pockets of deprivation in Home Counties seats. Often the resentment here is felt strongly because of the proximity to wealth.
I am not sure how much we can rely on their uncertainly to vote. Many of the disaffected and disenchanted haven't had a party they felt represented them before, as there was no kipper candidate standing in their seat, and in all likelihood the public profile of the kippers was so low they didn't know they existed. Lots of voters who found nothing to vote for in the existing parties are now discovering they have a candidate closer to their views standing in their area. I would say don't underestimate the motivation of a pissed off person.
In a low turnout election with apathy breaking out all over, I cannot see that people who do not vote will suddenly stir themselves to do so. Particularly with individual voter registration.
They are the armchair supporters of the political world who never go to a game, but phone into the moan-in anyway.
Hats off to the surgeon who worked out which malignant bits of Nigel Farage had to be removed. That must have been a complex operation.
You are nearly as obsessed about Farage and Kippers as Flightpath is. I notice you didn't answer the post on the previous thread about whether you would accept a democratically elected UKIP government and if not, on what basis would you put your views as being superior to the electorate.
The electorate are capable of getting things wrong. My conscience is not dictated to by democratic votes.
Fortunately, the British public are far too sensible to elect a highly reactionary xenophobic rabble, so your hypothetical doesn't arise.
Nigel Farage would be delighted that I commented on his planted news story this morning. Attention whores always are.
The breaking news is that WIND is reporting to the JNN the contents of the latest ARSE with added APLOMB 2015 General Election and "JackW Dozen" Projections. (Changes From 10th March Projection) :
Con 312 (-2) .. Lab 250 (+2) .. LibDem 31 (+1) .. SNP 32 .. PC 2 .. NI 18 .. UKIP 2 (-1) .. Respect 1 .. Green 1 .. Ind 0 .. Speaker 1
Conservatives 16 seats short of a majority ......................................................................................
"JackW Dozen" - 13 seats that will shape the General Election result :
Bury North - Con Hold Pudsey - Likely Con Hold Broxtowe - TCTC Warwickshire North - TCTC Cambridge - LibDem Hold Ipswich - Con Hold Watford - Likely LibDem Gain Croydon Central - Con Hold Enfield North - TCTC Cornwall North - TCTC Great Yarmouth - Con Hold Vale of Glamorgan - Con Hold Ochil and South Perthshire - SNP Gain
Changes From 10 Mar - No Changes
TCTC - Too Close To Call - Less than 500 votes Likely Hold/Gain - 500 - 2500 votes Gain/Hold - Over 2500 .......................................................................................
ARSE is sponsored by Auchentennach Fine Pies (Est 1745)
WIND - Whimsical Independent News Division JNN - Jacobite News Network ARSE - Anonymous Random Selection of Electors APLOMB - Auchentennach Pies Leading Outsales Mainland Britain
I'd put Watford down as TCTC, Enfield North and Broxtowe as likely Lab., and Croydon Central as likely Con.
Not too much between us really Sean.
Watford is fairly close to TCTC and both Enfield North and Broxtowe have only recently edged into TCTC from Likely Lab GAIN.
Croydon Central is also on the cusp of Con HOLD/Likely HOLD.
One thing that strikes me about your ARSE (and MACARSE) is how little volatility there is. How much change has there been since the first one with the JackW dozen?
I reckon Croydon Central is nailed on Tory. It is largely a mixture of Uber Tory places like Fairfield, Heathfield and Shirley and Uber white working class New Addington which will get an inevitably large UKIP vote. The UKIP candidate is well known local Peter Staveley, longtime chairman of the Southern Electric Group.
To my mind the only issue is whether Labour come second or third behind UKIP.
I see that Flightpath didn't retract the racially derogatory term he used on the previous thread.
Not surprising, you often find that people who throw accusations of racism around are doing it to hide their own prejudices.
Not surprising because it wasn't a racially derogatory comment. As millions of people of colour and those arbiters of all things racist, the NAACP, would tell you.
You already knew that, but it didn't prevent you doing what you claim to despise others for.
I see that Flightpath didn't retract the racially derogatory term he used on the previous thread.
Not surprising, you often find that people who throw accusations of racism around are doing it to hide their own prejudices.
Maybe because its only derogatory in the eyes of people who are looking for offence?
I suspect Cape Coloureds (and people of mixed African/European race all over southern African who idenfity themselves as Coloured might consider it highly derogatory that you consider their identity derogatory.
In fact the whole thing caputures in one word how the racial equality industry go completely over the top resulting in something of an electoral backlash against them.
As with so many things, insitutions and movements spring up to oppose a widespread injustice. Unfortunately when that injustice is largely disposed of, the institution/movement dosen't pat itself on the back and disband itself but loses members and is left with the true believers, the fanatics and the corrupt who insist on ever more trivial things to take offence over to justify their continued existence.
As Flightpath wasn't referring to the Cape Coloured people and as he flings accusations of racism about like the worst of the 'race relations' gang I think he should be judged by his own standard.
And by that he used what is deemed to be a racially derogatory term.
Hats off to the surgeon who worked out which malignant bits of Nigel Farage had to be removed. That must have been a complex operation.
You are nearly as obsessed about Farage and Kippers as Flightpath is. I notice you didn't answer the post on the previous thread about whether you would accept a democratically elected UKIP government and if not, on what basis would you put your views as being superior to the electorate.
The electorate are capable of getting things wrong. My conscience is not dictated to by democratic votes.
What a uniquely democratic view, should the electorate be presented with a list of acceptable candidates to select from then ? Only socially liberal centrists need apply ?
The breaking news is that WIND is reporting to the JNN the contents of the latest ARSE with added APLOMB 2015 General Election and "JackW Dozen" Projections. (Changes From 10th March Projection) :
Con 312 (-2) .. Lab 250 (+2) .. LibDem 31 (+1) .. SNP 32 .. PC 2 .. NI 18 .. UKIP 2 (-1) .. Respect 1 .. Green 1 .. Ind 0 .. Speaker 1
Conservatives 16 seats short of a majority ......................................................................................
"JackW Dozen" - 13 seats that will shape the General Election result :
Bury North - Con Hold Pudsey - Likely Con Hold Broxtowe - TCTC Warwickshire North - TCTC Cambridge - LibDem Hold Ipswich - Con Hold Watford - Likely LibDem Gain Croydon Central - Con Hold Enfield North - TCTC Cornwall North - TCTC Great Yarmouth - Con Hold Vale of Glamorgan - Con Hold Ochil and South Perthshire - SNP Gain
Changes From 10 Mar - No Changes
TCTC - Too Close To Call - Less than 500 votes Likely Hold/Gain - 500 - 2500 votes Gain/Hold - Over 2500 .......................................................................................
ARSE is sponsored by Auchentennach Fine Pies (Est 1745)
WIND - Whimsical Independent News Division JNN - Jacobite News Network ARSE - Anonymous Random Selection of Electors APLOMB - Auchentennach Pies Leading Outsales Mainland Britain
I'd put Watford down as TCTC, Enfield North and Broxtowe as likely Lab., and Croydon Central as likely Con.
I suspect Enfield Southgate will have a closer result than Enfield North.
Demographic change is destroying the Conservatives in the London suburbs.
Hats off to the surgeon who worked out which malignant bits of Nigel Farage had to be removed. That must have been a complex operation.
You are nearly as obsessed about Farage and Kippers as Flightpath is. I notice you didn't answer the post on the previous thread about whether you would accept a democratically elected UKIP government and if not, on what basis would you put your views as being superior to the electorate.
The electorate are capable of getting things wrong. My conscience is not dictated to by democratic votes.
What a uniquely democratic view, should the electorate be presented with a list of acceptable candidates to select from then ?
I'm not going to launch a coup. That doesn't mean that I have to accept in silence the will of a plurality if it is wicked.
The breaking news is that WIND is reporting to the JNN the contents of the latest ARSE with added APLOMB 2015 General Election and "JackW Dozen" Projections. (Changes From 10th March Projection) :
Con 312 (-2) .. Lab 250 (+2) .. LibDem 31 (+1) .. SNP 32 .. PC 2 .. NI 18 .. UKIP 2 (-1) .. Respect 1 .. Green 1 .. Ind 0 .. Speaker 1
Conservatives 16 seats short of a majority ......................................................................................
"JackW Dozen" - 13 seats that will shape the General Election result :
Bury North - Con Hold Pudsey - Likely Con Hold Broxtowe - TCTC Warwickshire North - TCTC Cambridge - LibDem Hold Ipswich - Con Hold Watford - Likely LibDem Gain Croydon Central - Con Hold Enfield North - TCTC Cornwall North - TCTC Great Yarmouth - Con Hold Vale of Glamorgan - Con Hold Ochil and South Perthshire - SNP Gain
Changes From 10 Mar - No Changes
TCTC - Too Close To Call - Less than 500 votes Likely Hold/Gain - 500 - 2500 votes Gain/Hold - Over 2500 .......................................................................................
ARSE is sponsored by Auchentennach Fine Pies (Est 1745)
WIND - Whimsical Independent News Division JNN - Jacobite News Network ARSE - Anonymous Random Selection of Electors APLOMB - Auchentennach Pies Leading Outsales Mainland Britain
I'd put Watford down as TCTC, Enfield North and Broxtowe as likely Lab., and Croydon Central as likely Con.
Not too much between us really Sean.
Watford is fairly close to TCTC and both Enfield North and Broxtowe have only recently edged into TCTC from Likely Lab GAIN.
Croydon Central is also on the cusp of Con HOLD/Likely HOLD.
One thing that strikes me about your ARSE (and MACARSE) is how little volatility there is. How much change has there been since the first one with the JackW dozen?
The nature of my ARSE is that it isn't a nowcast but a projection for 7th May based on a range of economic, social and political data available at the time and projections for that election day.
Accordingly if my analysis for economic growth and unemployment two and a half years ago holds then that aspect of the projection will not vary the input into the full projection. These I put at 2.8% and 1.85million. Not too shabby.
The largest change in seat totals have been the SNP/Lab axis that has effectively added 20 seats to the former and 15 seats away from the latter. The Libdems have also moved down from 40 to presently 31.
The only two seats in the "JackW Dozen" that have moved more than two steps are Cambridge and Ochil. Both from TCTC to a HOLD for the LibDems and SNP respectively.
The breaking news is that WIND is reporting to the JNN the contents of the latest ARSE with added APLOMB 2015 General Election and "JackW Dozen" Projections. (Changes From 10th March Projection) :
Con 312 (-2) .. Lab 250 (+2) .. LibDem 31 (+1) .. SNP 32 .. PC 2 .. NI 18 .. UKIP 2 (-1) .. Respect 1 .. Green 1 .. Ind 0 .. Speaker 1
Conservatives 16 seats short of a majority ......................................................................................
"JackW Dozen" - 13 seats that will shape the General Election result :
Bury North - Con Hold Pudsey - Likely Con Hold Broxtowe - TCTC Warwickshire North - TCTC Cambridge - LibDem Hold Ipswich - Con Hold Watford - Likely LibDem Gain Croydon Central - Con Hold Enfield North - TCTC Cornwall North - TCTC Great Yarmouth - Con Hold Vale of Glamorgan - Con Hold Ochil and South Perthshire - SNP Gain
Changes From 10 Mar - No Changes
TCTC - Too Close To Call - Less than 500 votes Likely Hold/Gain - 500 - 2500 votes Gain/Hold - Over 2500 .......................................................................................
ARSE is sponsored by Auchentennach Fine Pies (Est 1745)
WIND - Whimsical Independent News Division JNN - Jacobite News Network ARSE - Anonymous Random Selection of Electors APLOMB - Auchentennach Pies Leading Outsales Mainland Britain
I'd put Watford down as TCTC, Enfield North and Broxtowe as likely Lab., and Croydon Central as likely Con.
Not too much between us really Sean.
Watford is fairly close to TCTC and both Enfield North and Broxtowe have only recently edged into TCTC from Likely Lab GAIN.
Croydon Central is also on the cusp of Con HOLD/Likely HOLD.
One thing that strikes me about your ARSE (and MACARSE) is how little volatility there is. How much change has there been since the first one with the JackW dozen?
I reckon Croydon Central is nailed on Tory. It is largely a mixture of Uber Tory places like Fairfield, Heathfield and Shirley and Uber white working class New Addington which will get an inevitably large UKIP vote. The UKIP candidate is well known local Peter Staveley, longtime chairman of the Southern Electric Group.
To my mind the only issue is whether Labour come second or third behind UKIP.
The Evening Standard predicted a comfortable Labour gain of Croydon Central in their most recent polling.in London seats along with 7 others out of 12 Tory/Lib Dem target seats of the Reds in the Capital they polled all looking set to return to the party of the peoples flag
Mr. Observer, it's almost as if devolution as it currently stands is completely unacceptable and only exists due to Labour's short-sighted, narrow-minded attempt to gerrymander itself a perpetual fiefdom.
You're right that the UK remains subject to great uncertainty regarding Scotland going its own way.
Well done David you managed to mention that the deficit is falling while omitting the fact that this government is hundreds of billions behind schedule on deficit reduction.
No-one except extreme anoraks has any idea about that though. Besides, stuff happens, like continual Eurozone crises, which delay recovery and tax receipts. If you really want to see some bad deficit predictions, have a look at the Budget and Autumn Statements circa 2006-8. I suspect that this government's predictions have been no worse cumulatively over five years than the last one's was over half that time.
After all its only hundreds of billions of pounds and not something important like a penny off a pint of beer. But why should the average person worry when the government tells lies about "paying down Britain's debts" ?
Strangely enough stuff happening never seems to get in the way of government's encouraging increased consumer spending and rising house prices.
BTW I was the first person here who calculated how much the borrowing predictions had increased after the 2008 budget. Half a trillion pounds it was. That was while Osborne was still planning on 'sharing the proceeds of growth'.
The breaking news is that WIND is reporting to the JNN the contents of the latest ARSE with added APLOMB 2015 General Election and "JackW Dozen" Projections. (Changes From 10th March Projection) :
Con 312 (-2) .. Lab 250 (+2) .. LibDem 31 (+1) .. SNP 32 .. PC 2 .. NI 18 .. UKIP 2 (-1) .. Respect 1 .. Green 1 .. Ind 0 .. Speaker 1
Conservatives 16 seats short of a majority ......................................................................................
"JackW Dozen" - 13 seats that will shape the General Election result :
Bury North - Con Hold Pudsey - Likely Con Hold Broxtowe - TCTC Warwickshire North - TCTC Cambridge - LibDem Hold Ipswich - Con Hold Watford - Likely LibDem Gain Croydon Central - Con Hold Enfield North - TCTC Cornwall North - TCTC Great Yarmouth - Con Hold Vale of Glamorgan - Con Hold Ochil and South Perthshire - SNP Gain
Changes From 10 Mar - No Changes
TCTC - Too Close To Call - Less than 500 votes Likely Hold/Gain - 500 - 2500 votes Gain/Hold - Over 2500 .......................................................................................
ARSE is sponsored by Auchentennach Fine Pies (Est 1745)
WIND - Whimsical Independent News Division JNN - Jacobite News Network ARSE - Anonymous Random Selection of Electors APLOMB - Auchentennach Pies Leading Outsales Mainland Britain
I'd put Watford down as TCTC, Enfield North and Broxtowe as likely Lab., and Croydon Central as likely Con.
Not too much between us really Sean.
Watford is fairly close to TCTC and both Enfield North and Broxtowe have only recently edged into TCTC from Likely Lab GAIN.
Croydon Central is also on the cusp of Con HOLD/Likely HOLD.
One thing that strikes me about your ARSE (and MACARSE) is how little volatility there is. How much change has there been since the first one with the JackW dozen?
I reckon Croydon Central is nailed on Tory. It is largely a mixture of Uber Tory places like Fairfield, Heathfield and Shirley and Uber white working class New Addington which will get an inevitably large UKIP vote. The UKIP candidate is well known local Peter Staveley, longtime chairman of the Southern Electric Group.
To my mind the only issue is whether Labour come second or third behind UKIP.
Ashcroft had Labour 6% ahead in October, albeit with UKIP on an improbable 19%. Now, there's been a shift to the Tories since then, and I can't see Labour winning a seat they lost in 2005.
Hats off to the surgeon who worked out which malignant bits of Nigel Farage had to be removed. That must have been a complex operation.
You are nearly as obsessed about Farage and Kippers as Flightpath is. I notice you didn't answer the post on the previous thread about whether you would accept a democratically elected UKIP government and if not, on what basis would you put your views as being superior to the electorate.
The electorate are capable of getting things wrong. My conscience is not dictated to by democratic votes.
What a uniquely democratic view, should the electorate be presented with a list of acceptable candidates to select from then ?
I'm not going to launch a coup. That doesn't mean that I have to accept in silence the will of a plurality if it is wicked.
If UKIP were democratically elected as government then of course I would respect the view of the British public. I suspect that it would be shortlived because apart from leaving the EU it does not hold a coherent vision of the future.
I would exercise my democratic right to agitate peacefully for its collapse.
Hats off to the surgeon who worked out which malignant bits of Nigel Farage had to be removed. That must have been a complex operation.
You are nearly as obsessed about Farage and Kippers as Flightpath is. I notice you didn't answer the post on the previous thread about whether you would accept a democratically elected UKIP government and if not, on what basis would you put your views as being superior to the electorate.
The electorate are capable of getting things wrong. My conscience is not dictated to by democratic votes.
What a uniquely democratic view, should the electorate be presented with a list of acceptable candidates to select from then ?
I'm not going to launch a coup. That doesn't mean that I have to accept in silence the will of a plurality if it is wicked.
If UKIP were democratically elected as government then of course I would respect the view of the British public. I suspect that it would be shortlived because apart from leaving the EU it does not hold a coherent vision of the future.
I would exercise my democratic right to agitate peacefully for its collapse.
Oh UKIP will never get elected to lead a government. It's a silly hypothetical.
But in the meantime it can do a lot of damage pandering to xenophobia and irrational fear.
The breaking news is that WIND is reporting to the JNN the contents of the latest ARSE with added APLOMB 2015 General Election and "JackW Dozen" Projections. (Changes From 10th March Projection) :
Con 312 (-2) .. Lab 250 (+2) .. LibDem 31 (+1) .. SNP 32 .. PC 2 .. NI 18 .. UKIP 2 (-1) .. Respect 1 .. Green 1 .. Ind 0 .. Speaker 1
Conservatives 16 seats short of a majority ......................................................................................
"JackW Dozen" - 13 seats that will shape the General Election result :
Bury North - Con Hold Pudsey - Likely Con Hold Broxtowe - TCTC Warwickshire North - TCTC Cambridge - LibDem Hold Ipswich - Con Hold Watford - Likely LibDem Gain Croydon Central - Con Hold Enfield North - TCTC Cornwall North - TCTC Great Yarmouth - Con Hold Vale of Glamorgan - Con Hold Ochil and South Perthshire - SNP Gain
Changes From 10 Mar - No Changes
TCTC - Too Close To Call - Less than 500 votes Likely Hold/Gain - 500 - 2500 votes Gain/Hold - Over 2500 .......................................................................................
ARSE is sponsored by Auchentennach Fine Pies (Est 1745)
WIND - Whimsical Independent News Division JNN - Jacobite News Network ARSE - Anonymous Random Selection of Electors APLOMB - Auchentennach Pies Leading Outsales Mainland Britain
I'd put Watford down as TCTC, Enfield North and Broxtowe as likely Lab., and Croydon Central as likely Con.
Not too much between us really Sean.
Watford is fairly close to TCTC and both Enfield North and Broxtowe have only recently edged into TCTC from Likely Lab GAIN.
Croydon Central is also on the cusp of Con HOLD/Likely HOLD.
One thing that strikes me about your ARSE (and MACARSE) is how little volatility there is. How much change has there been since the first one with the JackW dozen?
I reckon Croydon Central is nailed on Tory. It is largely a mixture of Uber Tory places like Fairfield, Heathfield and Shirley and Uber white working class New Addington which will get an inevitably large UKIP vote. The UKIP candidate is well known local Peter Staveley, longtime chairman of the Southern Electric Group.
To my mind the only issue is whether Labour come second or third behind UKIP.
Ashcroft had Labour 6% ahead in October, albeit with UKIP on an improbable 19%. Now, there's been a shift to the Tories since then, and I can't see Labour winning a seat they lost in 2005.
A lot of demographic change can happen in a decade.
David Herdson, This is the first time, in a long time, that you've written a thread intro that is straight from the MSM and the lab/lib/con stable. You assume, as do all MSM commentators, that UKIP will have no impact on the forthcoming GE, and can safely be ignored. I think you, and they, are going to be flumoxed by the eventual voting outcome.
See that the Police, Council and Labour are still acting like the 3 monkeys in Rotherham. What is preventing the police from upholding the law?
"Roma gipsy immigrants are illegally marrying underage girls as young as 12 before bringing them to the UK to live.
Girls as young as 12 and 13 are regularly being married off in exchange for thousands of pounds in countries including Romania, Bulgaria and Hungary before being brought to Britain.
The former deputy leader of Rotherham Council, where more than 1,400 schoolgirls were sexually exploited by Asian gangs, made the revelation at a meeting this week.
It has prompted calls for an urgent investigation into how many child brides are living in Britain's estimated 250,000-strong Roma community.....
During a meeting of the full council in Rotherham this week, Independent councillor Martyn Parker repeatedly questioned former deputy leader Emma Hoddinott over the claims.
Cllr Hoddinott finally admitted there are illegal brides in the town's large Eastern European immigrant community, adding it was 'unacceptable'.
Hats off to the surgeon who worked out which malignant bits of Nigel Farage had to be removed. That must have been a complex operation.
You are nearly as obsessed about Farage and Kippers as Flightpath is. I notice you didn't answer the post on the previous thread about whether you would accept a democratically elected UKIP government and if not, on what basis would you put your views as being superior to the electorate.
The electorate are capable of getting things wrong. My conscience is not dictated to by democratic votes.
What a uniquely democratic view, should the electorate be presented with a list of acceptable candidates to select from then ?
I'm not going to launch a coup. That doesn't mean that I have to accept in silence the will of a plurality if it is wicked.
If UKIP were democratically elected as government then of course I would respect the view of the British public. I suspect that it would be shortlived because apart from leaving the EU it does not hold a coherent vision of the future.
I would exercise my democratic right to agitate peacefully for its collapse.
I don't think UKIP can win an election. I think it can establish a significant Parliamentary presence, and pull the Conservatives and Labour in its direction. I think it's a good thing that economically centrist, socially conservative, eurosceptic voters should have a party that represents them.
The breaking news is that WIND is reporting to the JNN the contents of the latest ARSE with added APLOMB 2015 General Election and "JackW Dozen" Projections. (Changes From 10th March Projection) :
Con 312 (-2) .. Lab 250 (+2) .. LibDem 31 (+1) .. SNP 32 .. PC 2 .. NI 18 .. UKIP 2 (-1) .. Respect 1 .. Green 1 .. Ind 0 .. Speaker 1
Conservatives 16 seats short of a majority ......................................................................................
"JackW Dozen" - 13 seats that will shape the General Election result :
Bury North -
I'd put Watford down as TCTC, Enfield North and Broxtowe as likely Lab., and Croydon Central as likely Con.
Not too much between us really Sean.
Watford is fairly close to TCTC and both Enfield North and Broxtowe have only recently edged into TCTC from Likely Lab GAIN.
Croydon Central is also on the cusp of Con HOLD/Likely HOLD.
One thing that strikes me about your ARSE (and MACARSE) is how little volatility there is. How much change has there been since the first one with the JackW dozen?
The nature of my ARSE is that it isn't a nowcast but a projection for 7th May based on a range of economic, social and political data available at the time and projections for that election day.
Accordingly if my analysis for economic growth and unemployment two and a half years ago holds then that aspect of the projection will not vary the input into the full projection. These I put at 2.8% and 1.85million. Not too shabby.
The largest change in seat totals have been the SNP/Lab axis that has effectively added 20 seats to the former and 15 seats away from the latter. The Libdems have also moved down from 40 to presently 31.
The only two seats in the "JackW Dozen" that have moved more than two steps are Cambridge and Ochil. Both from TCTC to a HOLD for the LibDems and SNP respectively.
Despite being an LD myself I have always thought your LD projection a little optomistic. I am intrigued at what you anticipate in the 27 Scottish seats not going to the SNP. I projected 3 LD holds in Scotland by my own analysis.
It looks to me that it is the midlands marginals of Broxtowe and North Warwickshire where your ARSE needs further study. I would call one each way.
The Tories want to make Scotland an issue. If they succeed it will be a very big deal in Scotland, I'd have thought.
Both Labour and the SNP have been making the Tories an issue for decades!
Quite so. But I presume Mr O means, the Tories want to make Scotland an issue in their English fastnesses and marginals.
They don't have many MPs in Scotland, but it's worth remembering there is a Scottish Parliament election next year, so the Tories do have something to lose there in an electoral system which doesn't reduce their seat numbers to ailuropod levels.
I see that Flightpath didn't retract the racially derogatory term he used on the previous thread.
Not surprising, you often find that people who throw accusations of racism around are doing it to hide their own prejudices.
Not surprising because it wasn't a racially derogatory comment. As millions of people of colour and those arbiters of all things racist, the NAACP, would tell you.
You already knew that, but it didn't prevent you doing what you claim to despise others for.
Ask Alan Hansen if its regarded as a racially derogatory term.
As Flightpath repeatedly throws accusations of racism around he should be judged by his own standards.
See that the Police, Council and Labour are still acting like the 3 monkeys in Rotherham. What is preventing the police from upholding the law?
"Roma gipsy immigrants are illegally marrying underage girls as young as 12 before bringing them to the UK to live.
Girls as young as 12 and 13 are regularly being married off in exchange for thousands of pounds in countries including Romania, Bulgaria and Hungary before being brought to Britain.
The former deputy leader of Rotherham Council, where more than 1,400 schoolgirls were sexually exploited by Asian gangs, made the revelation at a meeting this week.
It has prompted calls for an urgent investigation into how many child brides are living in Britain's estimated 250,000-strong Roma community.....
During a meeting of the full council in Rotherham this week, Independent councillor Martyn Parker repeatedly questioned former deputy leader Emma Hoddinott over the claims.
Cllr Hoddinott finally admitted there are illegal brides in the town's large Eastern European immigrant community, adding it was 'unacceptable'.
Hats off to the surgeon who worked out which malignant bits of Nigel Farage had to be removed. That must have been a complex operation.
You are nearly as obsessed about Farage and Kippers as Flightpath is. I notice you didn't answer the post on the previous thread about whether you would accept a democratically elected UKIP government and if not, on what basis would you put your views as being superior to the electorate.
The electorate are capable of getting things wrong. My conscience is not dictated to by democratic votes.
What a uniquely democratic view, should the electorate be presented with a list of acceptable candidates to select from then ?
I'm not going to launch a coup. That doesn't mean that I have to accept in silence the will of a plurality if it is wicked.
If UKIP were democratically elected as government then of course I would respect the view of the British public. I suspect that it would be shortlived because apart from leaving the EU it does not hold a coherent vision of the future.
I would exercise my democratic right to agitate peacefully for its collapse.
I don't think UKIP can win an election. I think it can establish a significant Parliamentary presence, and pull the Conservatives and Labour in its direction. I think it's a good thing that economically centrist, socially conservative, eurosceptic voters should have a party that represents them.
I think that it doesn't need to have a handful of MPs on the opposition benches to do that. It has already exerted pressure on the Tories, though not much yet on Labour.
I have never been a subscriber to the "wasted vote" meme. By contributing to political debate even parties that fail at their primary objective can achieve their goal in the end.
The SDP was an electoral failure in narrow terms (the pre-merger alliance noticeably did better in Liberal rather than SDP seats) but altered the political discourse to the point that Labour changed to a more centrist party that was electable again.
The Tories want to make Scotland an issue. If they succeed it will be a very big deal in Scotland, I'd have thought.
Both Labour and the SNP have been making the Tories an issue for decades!
Quite so. But I presume Mr O means, the Tories want to make Scotland an issue in their English fastnesses and marginals.
They don't have many MPs in Scotland, but it's worth remembering there is a Scottish Parliament election next year, so the Tories do have something to lose there in an electoral system which doesn't reduce their seat numbers to ailuropod levels.
So it's fine for Labour to make an issue of the English and the Tories in Scotland, but the reverse is dangerous when the Tories do it in England?
See that the Police, Council and Labour are still acting like the 3 monkeys in Rotherham. What is preventing the police from upholding the law?
"Roma gipsy immigrants are illegally marrying underage girls as young as 12 before bringing them to the UK to live.
Girls as young as 12 and 13 are regularly being married off in exchange for thousands of pounds in countries including Romania, Bulgaria and Hungary before being brought to Britain.
The former deputy leader of Rotherham Council, where more than 1,400 schoolgirls were sexually exploited by Asian gangs, made the revelation at a meeting this week.
It has prompted calls for an urgent investigation into how many child brides are living in Britain's estimated 250,000-strong Roma community.....
During a meeting of the full council in Rotherham this week, Independent councillor Martyn Parker repeatedly questioned former deputy leader Emma Hoddinott over the claims.
Cllr Hoddinott finally admitted there are illegal brides in the town's large Eastern European immigrant community, adding it was 'unacceptable'.
The Tories want to make Scotland an issue. If they succeed it will be a very big deal in Scotland, I'd have thought.
Both Labour and the SNP have been making the Tories an issue for decades!
Quite so. But I presume Mr O means, the Tories want to make Scotland an issue in their English fastnesses and marginals.
They don't have many MPs in Scotland, but it's worth remembering there is a Scottish Parliament election next year, so the Tories do have something to lose there in an electoral system which doesn't reduce their seat numbers to ailuropod levels.
So it's fine for Labour to make an issue of the English and the Tories in Scotland, but the reverse is dangerous when the Tories do it in England?
I didn't know Labour made an issue of the English in Scotland. And I was merely making an observation, not a value judgement, that although it might seem the Tories have not much to lose in Scotland, it's not entirely true.
I'd put Watford down as TCTC, Enfield North and Broxtowe as likely Lab., and Croydon Central as likely Con.
Not too much between us really Sean.
Watford is fairly close to TCTC and both Enfield North and Broxtowe have only recently edged into TCTC from Likely Lab GAIN.
Croydon Central is also on the cusp of Con HOLD/Likely HOLD.
One thing that strikes me about your ARSE (and MACARSE) is how little volatility there is. How much change has there been since the first one with the JackW dozen?
The nature of my ARSE is that it isn't a nowcast but a projection for 7th May based on a range of economic, social and political data available at the time and projections for that election day.
Accordingly if my analysis for economic growth and unemployment two and a half years ago holds then that aspect of the projection will not vary the input into the full projection. These I put at 2.8% and 1.85million. Not too shabby.
The largest change in seat totals have been the SNP/Lab axis that has effectively added 20 seats to the former and 15 seats away from the latter. The Libdems have also moved down from 40 to presently 31.
The only two seats in the "JackW Dozen" that have moved more than two steps are Cambridge and Ochil. Both from TCTC to a HOLD for the LibDems and SNP respectively.
Despite being an LD myself I have always thought your LD projection a little optomistic. I am intrigued at what you anticipate in the 27 Scottish seats not going to the SNP. I projected 3 LD holds in Scotland by my own analysis.
It looks to me that it is the midlands marginals of Broxtowe and North Warwickshire where your ARSE needs further study. I would call one each way.
Bearing in mind he yellow peril's famed and accepted stickability I wouldn't describe losing almost half their seats as a "little optimistic" but it's all about context to some degree.
Scotland has been something of a conundrum. Will the SNP vote hold firm within a closely fought election campaign. The ARSE projects fewer gains than others but 30+ seats for the SNP will be an outstanding election.
Nick Palmer has got a battle on his hands. The Midlands appear to be one of the areas less enamoured of the charms of Labour and the Conservative vote has hardened. Essentially Labour is dead in the water if it can't comfortably take seats like Broxtowe and North Warks.
David Herdson, This is the first time, in a long time, that you've written a thread intro that is straight from the MSM and the lab/lib/con stable. You assume, as do all MSM commentators, that UKIP will have no impact on the forthcoming GE, and can safely be ignored. I think you, and they, are going to be flumoxed by the eventual voting outcome.
What are you predicting specifically?
I don't think anyone will be flumoxed of ukip win the general election, any more than they would have been flummoxed if the lib dems had won last time. I think we'd all just be a little surprised. And more than a little scared.
Hats off to the surgeon who worked out which malignant bits of Nigel Farage had to be removed. That must have been a complex operation.
You are nearly as obsessed about Farage and Kippers as Flightpath is. I notice you didn't answer the post on the previous thread about whether you would accept a democratically elected UKIP government and if not, on what basis would you put your views as being superior to the electorate.
The electorate are capable of getting things wrong. My conscience is not dictated to by democratic votes.
What a uniquely democratic view, should the electorate be presented with a list of acceptable candidates to select from then ?
I'm not going to launch a coup. That doesn't mean that I have to accept in silence the will of a plurality if it is wicked.
If UKIP were democratically elected as government then of course I would respect the view of the British public. I suspect that it would be shortlived because apart from leaving the EU it does not hold a coherent vision of the future.
I would exercise my democratic right to agitate peacefully for its collapse.
No one, but no one, in UKIP thinks that they will form a government after this GE. If we do well, then that will be a massive step for the next GE in 2020, or whenever.
I suppose your democratic rights against a UKIP government, foxy, would be rioting in the streets and calling the the government fascist and racist, when you yourself are just that: with the support of such movements as "Hope not Hate" - the most fascist lot of thugs seen in a long time.
"International investigative documentary series. For years we have looked on in envy at a French way of life that combined high living standards, generous welfare benefits and superb public transport. But now Robert Peston investigates how economic stagnation is threatening the treasured social model, and how a potential political earthquake could undermine the very fabric of the European Union itself. In the wake of the great economic crash of 2008, the French shunned austerity and eventually voted in a left-wing president who promised tax rises and a continuation of high public spending. Now even Francois Hollande has had to perform a U-turn and is promising reforms. This in turn has led to a surge in support for the right-wing politics of Marine Le Pen and the Front National, with their ferociously anti-European agenda. As the Front National achieves ever more electoral gains and Le Pen has a realistic run at the presidency, the consequences for the rest of Europe could be enormous"
See that the Police, Council and Labour are still acting like the 3 monkeys in Rotherham. What is preventing the police from upholding the law?
"Roma gipsy immigrants are illegally marrying underage girls as young as 12 before bringing them to the UK to live.
Girls as young as 12 and 13 are regularly being married off in exchange for thousands of pounds in countries including Romania, Bulgaria and Hungary before being brought to Britain.
The former deputy leader of Rotherham Council, where more than 1,400 schoolgirls were sexually exploited by Asian gangs, made the revelation at a meeting this week.
It has prompted calls for an urgent investigation into how many child brides are living in Britain's estimated 250,000-strong Roma community.....
During a meeting of the full council in Rotherham this week, Independent councillor Martyn Parker repeatedly questioned former deputy leader Emma Hoddinott over the claims.
Cllr Hoddinott finally admitted there are illegal brides in the town's large Eastern European immigrant community, adding it was 'unacceptable'.
Very good of you to accept the will of the majority even though you know better. A reasonable stance. You may disagree with their opinions but it's when you are derogatory about their character on that basis, there may be a problem.
By all means take the piss, especially if it's funny. But don't assume that 15% of the population is mentally deficient, and almost beneath contempt as some do. I would respect the decision even if I didn't agree with it
We all tend to think that we know best - that's a human trait. Demonising people on the basis of their opinions surely is not 'progressive.'
The Tories want to make Scotland an issue. If they succeed it will be a very big deal in Scotland, I'd have thought.
Both Labour and the SNP have been making the Tories an issue for decades!
Quite so. But I presume Mr O means, the Tories want to make Scotland an issue in their English fastnesses and marginals.
They don't have many MPs in Scotland, but it's worth remembering there is a Scottish Parliament election next year, so the Tories do have something to lose there in an electoral system which doesn't reduce their seat numbers to ailuropod levels.
Scotland is the big issue that DH did not mention in the header.
The Scottish Tories have a good capable leader, and have come through the idyref stronger rather than weaker. Potentially there are a lot of Unionist votes to be had in Scotland, and also a more right wing alternative to Sturgeons economic and social vision.
The rUK Tories do need to be careful in roasting Milibands Labour over the Scottish fire. A call for symmetrical devolution needs to be handled carefully, but is not in itself something that should put Scottish backs up.
See that the Police, Council and Labour are still acting like the 3 monkeys in Rotherham. What is preventing the police from upholding the law?
"Roma gipsy immigrants are illegally marrying underage girls as young as 12 before bringing them to the UK to live.
Girls as young as 12 and 13 are regularly being married off in exchange for thousands of pounds in countries including Romania, Bulgaria and Hungary before being brought to Britain.
The former deputy leader of Rotherham Council, where more than 1,400 schoolgirls were sexually exploited by Asian gangs, made the revelation at a meeting this week.
It has prompted calls for an urgent investigation into how many child brides are living in Britain's estimated 250,000-strong Roma community.....
During a meeting of the full council in Rotherham this week, Independent councillor Martyn Parker repeatedly questioned former deputy leader Emma Hoddinott over the claims.
Cllr Hoddinott finally admitted there are illegal brides in the town's large Eastern European immigrant community, adding it was 'unacceptable'.
Are you really expecting the South Yorkshire plods to uphold the law ???
You're either being very naive or very ironic.
No, it would appear that South Yorkshire Police only want to uphold parts of the law and only for parts of the population. That way leads to corruption, criminal gangs and riots.
See that the Police, Council and Labour are still acting like the 3 monkeys in Rotherham. What is preventing the police from upholding the law?
"Roma gipsy immigrants are illegally marrying underage girls as young as 12 before bringing them to the UK to live.
Girls as young as 12 and 13 are regularly being married off in exchange for thousands of pounds in countries including Romania, Bulgaria and Hungary before being brought to Britain.
The former deputy leader of Rotherham Council, where more than 1,400 schoolgirls were sexually exploited by Asian gangs, made the revelation at a meeting this week.
It has prompted calls for an urgent investigation into how many child brides are living in Britain's estimated 250,000-strong Roma community.....
During a meeting of the full council in Rotherham this week, Independent councillor Martyn Parker repeatedly questioned former deputy leader Emma Hoddinott over the claims.
Cllr Hoddinott finally admitted there are illegal brides in the town's large Eastern European immigrant community, adding it was 'unacceptable'.
David Herdson, This is the first time, in a long time, that you've written a thread intro that is straight from the MSM and the lab/lib/con stable. You assume, as do all MSM commentators, that UKIP will have no impact on the forthcoming GE, and can safely be ignored. I think you, and they, are going to be flumoxed by the eventual voting outcome.
What are you predicting specifically?
I don't think anyone will be flumoxed of ukip win the general election, any more than they would have been flummoxed if the lib dems had won last time. I think we'd all just be a little surprised. And more than a little scared.
I think UKIP might be scared if they won the election, like the Conservatives who won Islington and Hackney in 1968.
"International investigative documentary series. For years we have looked on in envy at a French way of life that combined high living standards, generous welfare benefits and superb public transport. But now Robert Peston investigates how economic stagnation is threatening the treasured social model, and how a potential political earthquake could undermine the very fabric of the European Union itself. In the wake of the great economic crash of 2008, the French shunned austerity and eventually voted in a left-wing president who promised tax rises and a continuation of high public spending. Now even Francois Hollande has had to perform a U-turn and is promising reforms. This in turn has led to a surge in support for the right-wing politics of Marine Le Pen and the Front National, with their ferociously anti-European agenda. As the Front National achieves ever more electoral gains and Le Pen has a realistic run at the presidency, the consequences for the rest of Europe could be enormous"
I don't suppose for a moment that Peston thought about the social consequences of economic stagnation due to Hollande's economic policies. Did he turn up in Brittany to ask if things had worsened after all those protests about 18 months ago?
"Expansion and conquest" make one of the pillars of the Islamist doctrine. For that reason, it requires, and overtly or covertly struggles for, expanding "rights" in non-Muslim countries.
It is simply futile to expect Islamists to demonstrate a crumb of the tolerance they demand of non-Muslim nations.
Hats off to the surgeon who worked out which malignant bits of Nigel Farage had to be removed. That must have been a complex operation.
You are nearly as obsessed about Farage and Kippers as Flightpath is. I notice you didn't answer the post on the previous thread about whether you would accept a democratically elected UKIP government and if not, on what basis would you put your views as being superior to the electorate.
The electorate are capable of getting things wrong. My conscience is not dictated to by democratic votes.
What a uniquely democratic view, should the electorate be presented with a list of acceptable candidates to select from then ?
I'm not going to launch a coup. That doesn't mean that I have to accept in silence the will of a plurality if it is wicked.
If UKIP were democratically elected as government then of course I would respect the view of the British public. I suspect that it would be shortlived because apart from leaving the EU it does not hold a coherent vision of the future.
I would exercise my democratic right to agitate peacefully for its collapse.
Oh UKIP will never get elected to lead a government. It's a silly hypothetical.
But in the meantime it can do a lot of damage pandering to xenophobia and irrational fear.
Police have imposed £100 on-the-spot penalty notices on thousands of motorists for careless and inconsiderate driving, including offences such as undertaking, lane hogging and splashing pedestrians .........
At least 10,000 motorists have been fined for offences such as tailgating, hogging the middle lane and undertaking on the inside lane as part of a purge on “anti-social” driving, according to the new figures.
The majority of police forces around the country have taken advantage of new powers which allow officers to issue £100 penalty notices on-the-spot and add three points to motorists’ licence for careless driving.
The greatest number of £100 fines were issued by Police Scotland, who gave out 3,252 penalty notices, followed by 1,397 by the Metropolitan police, 621 by Nottinghamshire police and 608 in Gwent, South Wales.
By comparison, only three were issued by Durham police. Humberside issued just 12 tickets, although the force did order 793 motorists to attend safer driving courses and referred 151 of the most serious cases to the courts.
Forces such as South Wales, Dyfed-Powys and Essex, confirmed that they did not issue tickets at all for careless driving, but preferred to prioritise driver education instead."
You may have me mixed up with another PB poster. I have never accused UKIP of being racist or facist. Indeed I have been accused of racism by some kippers!
I do think that UKIP is incoherent in policy, Pooteresque and Quixiotic by turns and has the wrong solutions to the wrong problems. My opposition to it will be by peaceful means.
Defiant Lion UK @DefiantLionUK 4m4 minutes ago #Socialists went all out to destroy colonial rule in Africa. Now #ComicRelief tells us Africans are starving. Remember USSR & China?
Not only Socialists demanded the end of empire, the Tories under MacMillan, quickly joined the fray, and both Labour and Tories made a bloody mess of British withdrawal from Africa, leaving stinking warlord types to rule, and sell out and rob, their own peoples.
The problem I have with the Greens is that they seem to want to protect the planet even if it's at the expense of the people living on it. It's a noble aim but if they ever won power, they'd probably split into so many factions, they'd make the "Judean Peoples Front" look sensible.
But ... I could be completely wrong, and not for the first time.
You may have me mixed up with another PB poster. I have never accused UKIP of being racist or facist. Indeed I have been accused of racism by some kippers!
I do think that UKIP is incoherent in policy, Pooteresque and Quixiotic by turns and has the wrong solutions to the wrong problems. My opposition to it will be by peaceful means.
That may be so, Foxy. And if so I apologise, some of these multi-posts are confusing at times.
Defiant Lion UK @DefiantLionUK 4m4 minutes ago #Socialists went all out to destroy colonial rule in Africa. Now #ComicRelief tells us Africans are starving. Remember USSR & China?
Not only Socialists demanded the end of empire, the Tories under MacMillan, quickly joined the fray, and both Labour and Tories made a bloody mess of British withdrawal from Africa, leaving stinking warlord types to rule, and sell out and rob, their own peoples.
I think that you are substantially wrong. Africa is increasingly democratic and progressing economically, with a few basket case exceptions. Not without its strains of course, but getting better all the time.
Many problems remain but there are fewer wars, and fewer despots than at any time in recent decades.
The problem I have with the Greens is that they seem to want to protect the planet even if it's at the expense of the people living on it. It's a noble aim but if they ever won power, they'd probably split into so many factions, they'd make the "Judean Peoples Front" look sensible.
But ... I could be completely wrong, and not for the first time.
I would add that most of their policies are based on the world as they would like it to be, rather than the world as it is. Many of their policies are based on completely rewriting the rules under which the EU, the WTO and the UN operate, often in a completely different way to the direction of travel for that organisation, for example
IP120 Existing centralised structures of governance, such as the EU, should be decentralised to appropriate and effective levels, depending on the issue in hand. International structures and institutions need to be transformed from being nationally-based to being based on confederations of (sub-national) regions or localities.
IP122 A General Agreement on Sustainable Trade, under which fair trade rules (where producers are guaranteed a reasonable price for their products before planting, and a portion of the payment is set aside for community development) would become a requisite for international trade and local supply of goods would be preferred, should replace the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade (GATT). A World Localisation Organisation should replace the World Trade Organisation (WTO).
Who knows which parties will one day run the country. Nothing lasts for ever. David Cameron may be the last ever conservative prime minister. Ukip could disband tomorrow.
20K nurses, 8K doctors...look tractor stats. Output of doctors Up, output of nurses Up, Tuition fees Down.
"A country where the next generation will do better than the last." What measures will Ed use to judge that, given that he keeps banging on about Generation Rent.
"Balance the books and cut the deficit every year whilst securing the future of the NHS." - Looks like ring fencing, but if Osborne can't deliver on balanced books, would Balls? No specific date mentioned.
But to complete my 'comprehensive' review of politics. If the Greens want to save the world but not the people, then I'd say the Ukip and Cons want to give preferential treatment to "our" people, and the Libs and Labour want to give preferential treatment to "other" people.
Who knows which parties will one day run the country. Nothing lasts for ever. David Cameron may be the last ever conservative prime minister. Ukip could disband tomorrow.
Defiant Lion UK @DefiantLionUK 4m4 minutes ago #Socialists went all out to destroy colonial rule in Africa. Now #ComicRelief tells us Africans are starving. Remember USSR & China?
Not only Socialists demanded the end of empire, the Tories under MacMillan, quickly joined the fray, and both Labour and Tories made a bloody mess of British withdrawal from Africa, leaving stinking warlord types to rule, and sell out and rob, their own peoples.
I think that you are substantially wrong. Africa is increasingly democratic and progressing economically, with a few basket case exceptions. Not without its strains of course, but getting better all the time.
Many problems remain but there are fewer wars, and fewer despots than at any time in recent decades.
Sorry Foxy, it is you who are wrong. In the immediate aftermath of British withdrawal, almost all the territories were left in the hands of despots. A study of the Biafrian war in Nigeria is a case in point. And are they any better off now in that sad country?
Who knows which parties will one day run the country. Nothing lasts for ever. David Cameron may be the last ever conservative prime minister. Ukip could disband tomorrow.
One day the united kingdom will be no more.
One day the last word of English will be spoken.
And one day the last human being well die.
Thinking anything is eternal is very foolish.
I don't want a UKIP government, but I can see several ways we might get one, not this time around, but certainly in 2020, maybe not with a majority, but certainly as a substantial member of a coalition.
If they get 50+ second place seats in the north in the GE, and then either EdM wins and spends five years on euro-idiocy and political correctness while the Tories bath in each others blood when Dave stands down, or Dave wins but the EU referendum looks like a stitch up to a sceptical public, I can easily see the kippers with 30-40 seats in 2020.
People waffle about how now one would form a coalition with then, but thats frankly bullshit, politicians do deals, if the choice is power with the kippers or the opposition benches politicians will be flexible in their morals and principles.
Who knows which parties will one day run the country. Nothing lasts for ever. David Cameron may be the last ever conservative prime minister. Ukip could disband tomorrow.
Who knows which parties will one day run the country. Nothing lasts for ever. David Cameron may be the last ever conservative prime minister. Ukip could disband tomorrow.
One day the united kingdom will be no more.
One day the last word of English will be spoken.
And one day the last human being well die.
Thinking anything is eternal is very foolish.
I don't want a UKIP government, but I can see several ways we might get one, not this time around, but certainly in 2020, maybe not with a majority, but certainly as a substantial member of a coalition.
If they get 50+ second place seats in the north in the GE, and then either EdM wins and spends five years on euro-idiocy and political correctness while the Tories bath in each others blood when Dave stands down, or Dave wins but the EU referendum looks like a stitch up to a sceptical public, I can easily see the kippers with 30-40 seats in 2020.
People waffle about how now one would form a coalition with then, but thats frankly bullshit, politicians do deals, if the choice is power with the kippers or the opposition benches politicians will be flexible in their morals and principles.
Although they may have the same problem as the Front National in France. Despite being the largest political party in the country, on pretty much any measure, they have just two of the 577 assembly members in France, just two out of 350 senators, and control exactly two of France's 4,052 general councils.
The bit on the media is spot on. Ed really should just go for Murdoch's jugular and pledge to cap the cost of sky. It'd be wildly popular amongst normal people. The top rated comment on this thread, linked to on my facebook feed, sums up the popular mood out there;
"I cancelled Sky last July after 25 years of unbroken loyalty - I threatened I'd leave if they didn't offer me a much better deal (like many people get) and, lo and behold, they said they could knock £10 off. Not much of a saving as I was already paying £94 a month and they'd sent me a letter saying they were going to increase it by another £5 or so"
C'mon Ed. Figure out a vaguely workable policy & send this out by text on May 6th;
"The success of the premier league shouldn't mean that loyal local supporters are priced out of watching their team. Vote labour tomorrow and, from next season it will cost no more than £20 a month to watch live PL football on TV."
Labour values, init.
Two n's in innit
BBC Sporf (@BBCSporf) 13/03/2015 20:03 CLASS: Bayern Munich's president on the club's season ticket prices. pic.twitter.com/y1wZF16FbA
Police have imposed £100 on-the-spot penalty notices on thousands of motorists for careless and inconsiderate driving, including offences such as undertaking, lane hogging and splashing pedestrians .........
At least 10,000 motorists have been fined for offences such as tailgating, hogging the middle lane and undertaking on the inside lane as part of a purge on “anti-social” driving, according to the new figures.
The majority of police forces around the country have taken advantage of new powers which allow officers to issue £100 penalty notices on-the-spot and add three points to motorists’ licence for careless driving.
The greatest number of £100 fines were issued by Police Scotland, who gave out 3,252 penalty notices, followed by 1,397 by the Metropolitan police, 621 by Nottinghamshire police and 608 in Gwent, South Wales.
By comparison, only three were issued by Durham police. Humberside issued just 12 tickets, although the force did order 793 motorists to attend safer driving courses and referred 151 of the most serious cases to the courts.
Forces such as South Wales, Dyfed-Powys and Essex, confirmed that they did not issue tickets at all for careless driving, but preferred to prioritise driver education instead."
Defiant Lion UK @DefiantLionUK 4m4 minutes ago #Socialists went all out to destroy colonial rule in Africa. Now #ComicRelief tells us Africans are starving. Remember USSR & China?
Not only Socialists demanded the end of empire, the Tories under MacMillan, quickly joined the fray, and both Labour and Tories made a bloody mess of British withdrawal from Africa, leaving stinking warlord types to rule, and sell out and rob, their own peoples.
I think that you are substantially wrong. Africa is increasingly democratic and progressing economically, with a few basket case exceptions. Not without its strains of course, but getting better all the time.
Many problems remain but there are fewer wars, and fewer despots than at any time in recent decades.
Sorry Foxy, it is you who are wrong. In the immediate aftermath of British withdrawal, almost all the territories were left in the hands of despots. A study of the Biafrian war in Nigeria is a case in point. And are they any better off now in that sad country?
Fox is right that the last decade has seen a remarkable improvement in the level of governance, the amount of poverty and malnutrition, and an improvement in governance across the continent of Africa. Not everywhere, of course, and many countries have gone backwards. But there are some remarkable Africa success stories in the last ten years.
Who knows which parties will one day run the country. Nothing lasts for ever. David Cameron may be the last ever conservative prime minister. Ukip could disband tomorrow.
Who knows which parties will one day run the country. Nothing lasts for ever. David Cameron may be the last ever conservative prime minister. Ukip could disband tomorrow.
One day the united kingdom will be no more.
One day the last word of English will be spoken.
And one day the last human being well die.
Thinking anything is eternal is very foolish.
I don't want a UKIP government, but I can see several ways we might get one, not this time around, but certainly in 2020, maybe not with a majority, but certainly as a substantial member of a coalition.
If they get 50+ second place seats in the north in the GE, and then either EdM wins and spends five years on euro-idiocy and political correctness while the Tories bath in each others blood when Dave stands down, or Dave wins but the EU referendum looks like a stitch up to a sceptical public, I can easily see the kippers with 30-40 seats in 2020.
People waffle about how now one would form a coalition with then, but thats frankly bullshit, politicians do deals, if the choice is power with the kippers or the opposition benches politicians will be flexible in their morals and principles.
Although they may have the same problem as the Front National in France. Despite being the largest political party in the country, on pretty much any measure, they have just two of the 577 assembly members in France, just two out of 350 senators, and control exactly two of France's 4,052 general councils.
True, but last time around the French elected Flanby and expected him to fix everything with the familiar socialist nostrums, and when he didn't they turned to FN, but that is since the election, the real question is what the FN achieve in the next election.
Can anyone go through http://may2015.com/category/seat-calculator/ and inform me which seats would NOT be in the Conservative column if the polls remain precisely as they are at the moment.
Candidates so far as I can tell:
Wirral West Amber Valley St Ives Torbay Stockton South Morecambe & Lunesdale Pudsey
20K nurses, 8K doctors...look tractor stats. Output of doctors Up, output of nurses Up, Tuition fees Down.
"A country where the next generation will do better than the last." What measures will Ed use to judge that, given that he keeps banging on about Generation Rent.
"Balance the books and cut the deficit every year whilst securing the future of the NHS." - Looks like ring fencing, but if Osborne can't deliver on balanced books, would Balls? No specific date mentioned.
"So the final pledge is the 2nd of the five (slightly confusingly, they’re in a different order on the card to the order they were announced in)."
Oh dear even Labour List highlights a minor presentational problem.
By 'balance the books', do they also include getting rid of the balance of payments deficit? This is apparently getting worse; I read an estimate of 6%.
Thats not what Fox was saying. What he was saying was this... http://quod.lib.umich.edu/j/jii/4750978.0016.202/--democracy-and-development-in-africa?rgn=main;view=fulltext ''Twenty years after the fall of the Berlin Wall, a Rip Van Winkle awakening in 2009 will find sub-Saharan Africa's political landscape profoundly changed. Many more Africans now enjoy basic political rights, and a clear yet partial move toward accountable governance offers a better platform for tackling the region's steep challenges of economic development and poverty reduction.'' http://www.ibanet.org/Article/Detail.aspx?ArticleUid=79b66132-65ad-4e4e-aa9f-c407e672b2f2 ''Elections have become the norm, not the exception in Africa’, write Jakkie Cilliers, Barry Hughes and Jonathan Moyer of the Institute for Security Studies in Pretoria, in a report African Futures 2050: The next forty years, published early this year. While during the 1960s and 1970s Africa averaged only 28 elections per decade, by the 1990s this had grown to 65 per decade and between 2000 and 2005 there were 41 elections.''
None of this is good enough. There is much further to go, but giving up on democracy is no way to see it succeed anywhere.
Defiant Lion UK @DefiantLionUK 4m4 minutes ago #Socialists went all out to destroy colonial rule in Africa. Now #ComicRelief tells us Africans are starving. Remember USSR & China?
Not only Socialists demanded the end of empire, the Tories under MacMillan, quickly joined the fray, and both Labour and Tories made a bloody mess of British withdrawal from Africa, leaving stinking warlord types to rule, and sell out and rob, their own peoples.
I think that you are substantially wrong. Africa is increasingly democratic and progressing economically, with a few basket case exceptions. Not without its strains of course, but getting better all the time.
Many problems remain but there are fewer wars, and fewer despots than at any time in recent decades.
Sorry Foxy, it is you who are wrong. In the immediate aftermath of British withdrawal, almost all the territories were left in the hands of despots. A study of the Biafrian war in Nigeria is a case in point. And are they any better off now in that sad country?
I would not disagree that decolonisation was handled badly almost everywhere, but the last two decades in Africa have been quite a turnaround.
I do some work in Malawi from time to time, and each time I go things are getting better. The same is true of Zambia, Mozambique, Angola, Uganda, Namibia, Ghana etc.
Even in Nigeria (which has 1/4 of Africa's population) has made tremendous progress in the mostly Christian South. The people of Biafra are doing rather well now. The North is more problematic, particularly with the rise of Boko Haram.
The common factor of the countries in Africa that are stagnating or going backwards is the prevalance of Islam. The Christian majority countries are actually doing rather well, with only a few exceptions such as Zimbabwe or South Sudan.
20K nurses, 8K doctors...look tractor stats. Output of doctors Up, output of nurses Up, Tuition fees Down.
"A country where the next generation will do better than the last." What measures will Ed use to judge that, given that he keeps banging on about Generation Rent.
"Balance the books and cut the deficit every year whilst securing the future of the NHS." - Looks like ring fencing, but if Osborne can't deliver on balanced books, would Balls? No specific date mentioned.
"So the final pledge is the 2nd of the five (slightly confusingly, they’re in a different order on the card to the order they were announced in)."
Oh dear even Labour List highlights a minor presentational problem.
By 'balance the books', do they also include getting rid of the balance of payments deficit? This is apparently getting worse; I read an estimate of 6%.
Neither party seems to want to mention this.
Didn't a balance of payments crisis cost Wilson a majority in 1970?
Cough restructuring the economy cough, as investment banking is cut back, which services will make up the differences?
Look we have new trains - designed overseas, assembled in the UK largely from parts imported from overseas. Look we have new power stations...
I wonder if Ed Miliband's second hob was made outside the UK.
Must be a herd of elephants waiting to get into the room of taboo election topics.
Defiant Lion UK @DefiantLionUK 4m4 minutes ago #Socialists went all out to destroy colonial rule in Africa. Now #ComicRelief tells us Africans are starving. Remember USSR & China?
Not only Socialists demanded the end of empire, the Tories under MacMillan, quickly joined the fray, and both Labour and Tories made a bloody mess of British withdrawal from Africa, leaving stinking warlord types to rule, and sell out and rob, their own peoples.
I think that you are substantially wrong. Africa is increasingly democratic and progressing economically, with a few basket case exceptions. Not without its strains of course, but getting better all the time.
Many problems remain but there are fewer wars, and fewer despots than at any time in recent decades.
Sorry Foxy, it is you who are wrong. In the immediate aftermath of British withdrawal, almost all the territories were left in the hands of despots. A study of the Biafrian war in Nigeria is a case in point. And are they any better off now in that sad country?
Fox is right that the last decade has seen a remarkable improvement in the level of governance, the amount of poverty and malnutrition, and an improvement in governance across the continent of Africa. Not everywhere, of course, and many countries have gone backwards. But there are some remarkable Africa success stories in the last ten years.
reckon china is well up for a bit of 21st century colonialism though, as they missed out last time round
Good for UKIP twitter.com/AngrySalmond/status/576700702942183424
The guy is clearly an idiot, but I can't see how it is racist. If someone referred to an Irish citizen using the name of a prominent member of the IRA for example, that would be offensive, but it's not racist. Or am I missing something.
I've not commented on "UKIPland No discriminationgate" as it's one of those journalist twists politician's words who wants them to be twisted twist stories that means different things to different people, but I can't and won't defend David Coburn here.
Comments
True blue home county seats where the golf club set can vent their europhobia safely and WVM has a business competing with immigrants will get both ends of the kipper spectrum.
I think Jack is right to have the kippers on 2 seats, but they are likely to have 50+ second places. I think the kippers do not yet know themselves where their strongest areas will be.
Suzanne Eveans was tacking left on welfare reform/spare room subsidy last night on AQ. If she writes that into the manifesto it may annoy WVM more than anything.
TBH, I still think UKIP will be at 2 but if I am wrong it is likely to be in the areas I indicated.
But if you disagree with my analysis, let's have yours. What do you think the major issues and events will be (if any) between now and May 7 to move the polls, and why.
Watford is fairly close to TCTC and both Enfield North and Broxtowe have only recently edged into TCTC from Likely Lab GAIN.
Croydon Central is also on the cusp of Con HOLD/Likely HOLD.
I remember the first couple of years of the coalition, in which spending wasnt cut, or even budgeted to cut. Public spending had never being higher in recent times, and was significantly above the mean levels under Labour, even when taking into account the massive off the cliff deficit spending post 2008.
Tim on here in the past used to regularly point to every failing, every rise in unemployment, quarter of negative growth, poor inflation indicator. Every hospital death, every casualty in a school etc. All of it was due to that evil George Osborne's cuts. When it was pointed out that spending is higher, and not because it was off track, it always was budgted to be for the first two years, he just denied it and repeated the mantra.
Two years later, he then said the reason why we started to get economic growth, rising employment and low inflation was because Osborne hadnt cut after all because he wasnt very good.
Who remembers Too Far, Too fast?
And Ed Ball's flat lining gesture at every PMQs before the economy started to boom.
And that idiot Blanchflower's forecasts of 5m unemployed being parroted by Miliband.
It's not a great record really, is it?
https://twitter.com/sayeedawarsi
Lots of stuff about Palestine, Ramallah evidently been regarded as more important than Rotherham.
She seems to have forgotten the advice her father gave her:
' “He said to me: ‘Sayeeda, what is the point in being in a position of leadership if you don’t lead on issues that are so fundamental? This is so stomach churningly sick that you should have been out there condemning it as loudly as you could. Uniquely, you are in a position to show leadership on this.' I thought to myself, he’s absolutely right.” '
I suspect Cape Coloureds (and people of mixed African/European race all over southern African who idenfity themselves as Coloured might consider it highly derogatory that you consider their identity derogatory.
In fact the whole thing caputures in one word how the racial equality industry go completely over the top resulting in something of an electoral backlash against them.
As with so many things, insitutions and movements spring up to oppose a widespread injustice. Unfortunately when that injustice is largely disposed of, the institution/movement dosen't pat itself on the back and disband itself but loses members and is left with the true believers, the fanatics and the corrupt who insist on ever more trivial things to take offence over to justify their continued existence.
David Herdson, This is the first time, in a long time, that you've written a thread intro that is straight from the MSM and the lab/lib/con stable. You assume, as do all MSM commentators, that UKIP will have no impact on the forthcoming GE, and can safely be ignored. I think you, and they, are going to be flumoxed by the eventual voting outcome.
They are the armchair supporters of the political world who never go to a game, but phone into the moan-in anyway.
Fortunately, the British public are far too sensible to elect a highly reactionary xenophobic rabble, so your hypothetical doesn't arise.
Nigel Farage would be delighted that I commented on his planted news story this morning. Attention whores always are.
To my mind the only issue is whether Labour come second or third behind UKIP.
Very good!
You already knew that, but it didn't prevent you doing what you claim to despise others for.
And by that he used what is deemed to be a racially derogatory term.
He has therefore convicted himself.
Just tried, and the page seemed to reload. Didn't get a message saying I'd entered my password wrong, but I wasn't logged in either.
Demographic change is destroying the Conservatives in the London suburbs.
Accordingly if my analysis for economic growth and unemployment two and a half years ago holds then that aspect of the projection will not vary the input into the full projection. These I put at 2.8% and 1.85million. Not too shabby.
The largest change in seat totals have been the SNP/Lab axis that has effectively added 20 seats to the former and 15 seats away from the latter. The Libdems have also moved down from 40 to presently 31.
The only two seats in the "JackW Dozen" that have moved more than two steps are Cambridge and Ochil. Both from TCTC to a HOLD for the LibDems and SNP respectively.
Croydon Central in their most recent polling.in London seats along
with 7 others out of 12 Tory/Lib Dem target seats of the Reds in the Capital they
polled all looking set to return to the party of the peoples flag
Tory lead 0.6% in ELBOW so far this week, with only Opinium, YG (Sunday) and ComRes (online) to come this weekend!
You're right that the UK remains subject to great uncertainty regarding Scotland going its own way.
Strangely enough stuff happening never seems to get in the way of government's encouraging increased consumer spending and rising house prices.
BTW I was the first person here who calculated how much the borrowing predictions had increased after the 2008 budget. Half a trillion pounds it was. That was while Osborne was still planning on 'sharing the proceeds of growth'.
I would exercise my democratic right to agitate peacefully for its collapse.
But in the meantime it can do a lot of damage pandering to xenophobia and irrational fear.
"Roma gipsy immigrants are illegally marrying underage girls as young as 12 before bringing them to the UK to live.
Girls as young as 12 and 13 are regularly being married off in exchange for thousands of pounds in countries including Romania, Bulgaria and Hungary before being brought to Britain.
The former deputy leader of Rotherham Council, where more than 1,400 schoolgirls were sexually exploited by Asian gangs, made the revelation at a meeting this week.
It has prompted calls for an urgent investigation into how many child brides are living in Britain's estimated 250,000-strong Roma community.....
During a meeting of the full council in Rotherham this week, Independent councillor Martyn Parker repeatedly questioned former deputy leader Emma Hoddinott over the claims.
Cllr Hoddinott finally admitted there are illegal brides in the town's large Eastern European immigrant community, adding it was 'unacceptable'.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2994377/Roma-gipsy-girls-young-12-forced-live-arranged-marriages.html
It looks to me that it is the midlands marginals of Broxtowe and North Warwickshire where your ARSE needs further study. I would call one each way.
They don't have many MPs in Scotland, but it's worth remembering there is a Scottish Parliament election next year, so the Tories do have something to lose there in an electoral system which doesn't reduce their seat numbers to ailuropod levels.
As Flightpath repeatedly throws accusations of racism around he should be judged by his own standards.
And on that he has failed.
You're either being very naive or very ironic.
I have never been a subscriber to the "wasted vote" meme. By contributing to political debate even parties that fail at their primary objective can achieve their goal in the end.
The SDP was an electoral failure in narrow terms (the pre-merger alliance noticeably did better in Liberal rather than SDP seats) but altered the political discourse to the point that Labour changed to a more centrist party that was electable again.
UKIP may do the same.
'Officially in Rotherham there are 6,500 Roma gypsies but unofficially it is more like 7,500.'
Think of the economic boost Rotherham has received from this.
Not forgetting the cultural enrichment.
Scotland has been something of a conundrum. Will the SNP vote hold firm within a closely fought election campaign. The ARSE projects fewer gains than others but 30+ seats for the SNP will be an outstanding election.
Nick Palmer has got a battle on his hands. The Midlands appear to be one of the areas less enamoured of the charms of Labour and the Conservative vote has hardened. Essentially Labour is dead in the water if it can't comfortably take seats like Broxtowe and North Warks.
I suppose your democratic rights against a UKIP government, foxy, would be rioting in the streets and calling the the government fascist and racist, when you yourself are just that: with the support of such movements as "Hope not Hate" - the most fascist lot of thugs seen in a long time.
Quelle Catastrophe! France with Robert Peston
"International investigative documentary series. For years we have looked on in envy at a French way of life that combined high living standards, generous welfare benefits and superb public transport. But now Robert Peston investigates how economic stagnation is threatening the treasured social model, and how a potential political earthquake could undermine the very fabric of the European Union itself. In the wake of the great economic crash of 2008, the French shunned austerity and eventually voted in a left-wing president who promised tax rises and a continuation of high public spending. Now even Francois Hollande has had to perform a U-turn and is promising reforms. This in turn has led to a surge in support for the right-wing politics of Marine Le Pen and the Front National, with their ferociously anti-European agenda. As the Front National achieves ever more electoral gains and Le Pen has a realistic run at the presidency, the consequences for the rest of Europe could be enormous"
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-31855700
Very good of you to accept the will of the majority even though you know better. A reasonable stance. You may disagree with their opinions but it's when you are derogatory about their character on that basis, there may be a problem.
By all means take the piss, especially if it's funny. But don't assume that 15% of the population is mentally deficient, and almost beneath contempt as some do. I would respect the decision even if I didn't agree with it
We all tend to think that we know best - that's a human trait. Demonising people on the basis of their opinions surely is not 'progressive.'
The Scottish Tories have a good capable leader, and have come through the idyref stronger rather than weaker. Potentially there are a lot of Unionist votes to be had in Scotland, and also a more right wing alternative to Sturgeons economic and social vision.
The rUK Tories do need to be careful in roasting Milibands Labour over the Scottish fire. A call for symmetrical devolution needs to be handled carefully, but is not in itself something that should put Scottish backs up.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/matt/
http://www.gatestoneinstitute.org/5333/the-islamist-way
"Expansion and conquest" make one of the pillars of the Islamist doctrine. For that reason, it requires, and overtly or covertly struggles for, expanding "rights" in non-Muslim countries.
It is simply futile to expect Islamists to demonstrate a crumb of the tolerance they demand of non-Muslim nations.
At least 10,000 motorists have been fined for offences such as tailgating, hogging the middle lane and undertaking on the inside lane as part of a purge on “anti-social” driving, according to the new figures.
The majority of police forces around the country have taken advantage of new powers which allow officers to issue £100 penalty notices on-the-spot and add three points to motorists’ licence for careless driving.
The greatest number of £100 fines were issued by Police Scotland, who gave out 3,252 penalty notices, followed by 1,397 by the Metropolitan police, 621 by Nottinghamshire police and 608 in Gwent, South Wales.
By comparison, only three were issued by Durham police. Humberside issued just 12 tickets, although the force did order 793 motorists to attend safer driving courses and referred 151 of the most serious cases to the courts.
Forces such as South Wales, Dyfed-Powys and Essex, confirmed that they did not issue tickets at all for careless driving, but preferred to prioritise driver education instead."
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/
Mrs JackW awaits here carriage.
You may have me mixed up with another PB poster. I have never accused UKIP of being racist or facist. Indeed I have been accused of racism by some kippers!
I do think that UKIP is incoherent in policy, Pooteresque and Quixiotic by turns and has the wrong solutions to the wrong problems. My opposition to it will be by peaceful means.
#Socialists went all out to destroy colonial rule in Africa. Now #ComicRelief tells us Africans are starving. Remember USSR & China?
Not only Socialists demanded the end of empire, the Tories under MacMillan, quickly joined the fray, and both Labour and Tories made a bloody mess of British withdrawal from Africa, leaving stinking warlord types to rule, and sell out and rob, their own peoples.
But ... I could be completely wrong, and not for the first time.
And if so I apologise, some of these multi-posts are confusing at times.
Many problems remain but there are fewer wars, and fewer despots than at any time in recent decades.
One day the united kingdom will be no more.
One day the last word of English will be spoken.
And one day the last human being well die.
Thinking anything is eternal is very foolish.
"A country where the next generation will do better than the last." What measures will Ed use to judge that, given that he keeps banging on about Generation Rent.
"Balance the books and cut the deficit every year whilst securing the future of the NHS." - Looks like ring fencing, but if Osborne can't deliver on balanced books, would Balls? No specific date mentioned.
http://labourlist.org/2015/03/revealed-labours-general-election-pledge-card/
"So the final pledge is the 2nd of the five (slightly confusingly, they’re in a different order on the card to the order they were announced in)."
Oh dear even Labour List highlights a minor presentational problem.
You're probably right and that's not all bad.
But to complete my 'comprehensive' review of politics. If the Greens want to save the world but not the people, then I'd say the Ukip and Cons want to give preferential treatment to "our" people, and the Libs and Labour want to give preferential treatment to "other" people.
If they get 50+ second place seats in the north in the GE, and then either EdM wins and spends five years on euro-idiocy and political correctness while the Tories bath in each others blood when Dave stands down, or Dave wins but the EU referendum looks like a stitch up to a sceptical public, I can easily see the kippers with 30-40 seats in 2020.
People waffle about how now one would form a coalition with then, but thats frankly bullshit, politicians do deals, if the choice is power with the kippers or the opposition benches politicians will be flexible in their morals and principles.
No, this is not the case right now.
Two n's in innit
BBC Sporf (@BBCSporf)
13/03/2015 20:03
CLASS: Bayern Munich's president on the club's season ticket prices. pic.twitter.com/y1wZF16FbA
Candidates so far as I can tell:
Wirral West
Amber Valley
St Ives
Torbay
Stockton South
Morecambe & Lunesdale
Pudsey
England and Wales
Con 34.8
Lab 33.7
This translates to Labour ahead by 0.1
Neither party seems to want to mention this.
http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/
Lab still have a seats lead though - Although have gone from "Short By 19" to "Short By 31"!
https://twitter.com/AngrySalmond/status/576700702942183424
http://quod.lib.umich.edu/j/jii/4750978.0016.202/--democracy-and-development-in-africa?rgn=main;view=fulltext
''Twenty years after the fall of the Berlin Wall, a Rip Van Winkle awakening in 2009 will find sub-Saharan Africa's political landscape profoundly changed. Many more Africans now enjoy basic political rights, and a clear yet partial move toward accountable governance offers a better platform for tackling the region's steep challenges of economic development and poverty reduction.''
http://www.ibanet.org/Article/Detail.aspx?ArticleUid=79b66132-65ad-4e4e-aa9f-c407e672b2f2
''Elections have become the norm, not the exception in Africa’, write Jakkie Cilliers, Barry Hughes and Jonathan Moyer of the Institute for Security Studies in Pretoria, in a report African Futures 2050: The next forty years, published early this year. While during the 1960s and 1970s Africa averaged only 28 elections per decade, by the 1990s this had grown to 65 per decade and between 2000 and 2005 there were 41 elections.''
None of this is good enough. There is much further to go, but giving up on democracy is no way to see it succeed anywhere.
England and Wales
Con 34.8
Lab 33.7
This translates to Labour ahead by 0.1
We may also guess that Labour keep Heywood & Middleton, perhaps give them 6 Scottish seats back too.
Lab 278
Con 274
So it is possible if the popular vote is a virtual tie that Labour will win more seats, but by no means certain
I do some work in Malawi from time to time, and each time I go things are getting better. The same is true of Zambia, Mozambique, Angola, Uganda, Namibia, Ghana etc.
Even in Nigeria (which has 1/4 of Africa's population) has made tremendous progress in the mostly Christian South. The people of Biafra are doing rather well now. The North is more problematic, particularly with the rise of Boko Haram.
The common factor of the countries in Africa that are stagnating or going backwards is the prevalance of Islam. The Christian majority countries are actually doing rather well, with only a few exceptions such as Zimbabwe or South Sudan.
Cough restructuring the economy cough, as investment banking is cut back, which services will make up the differences?
Look we have new trains - designed overseas, assembled in the UK largely from parts imported from overseas. Look we have new power stations...
I wonder if Ed Miliband's second hob was made outside the UK.
Must be a herd of elephants waiting to get into the room of taboo election topics.