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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Exactly a month from tomorrow voting will start in GE2015
On April 13th, just a month on from today, I am advised that the first postal voting packs will start going out and the following morning voting will start in GE15. There’s no changing your mind once you’ve popped your ballot envelope into the letter box. All the experience is that most postal voters return their completed forms within the first forty-eight hours.
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So @Ed_Miliband launched Labour Arts policy at Battersea Arts Centre 24 February. Currently in flames. Son of Gordon?
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-31876219
Plus, of course a barbeque!
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/technology/internet-security/11467748/UKs-largest-cyber-terror-attack-simulation-gets-underway-on-HMS-Belfast.html
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-glasgow-west-31875872#sa-ns_mchannel=rss&ns_source=PublicRSS20-sa
Perhaps f the prophet wasn't what the 'fans' expected.
I hope not!
Birmingham Hodge Hill
Bethnal Green & Bow
Must be front runners.
I've always dreamed of exchanging this unwieldy monster for something a bit more manageable.
Twice as many people think moon landings were faked as intend to vote LibDem at next election.
https://twitter.com/FraserNelson/status/576367927978414080
Norman Baker would be answering yes to all 3 of those questions :-)
1. Voter registration meaning fewer phantom voters on the rolls
2. UKIP reaching parts other parties can't reach
Factors tending to reduce turnout compared with 2010:
3. General disenchantment
4. Ed Miliband and the lack of any positive reason for traditional supporters to vote Labour
5. Depressed LibDems
It's a judgement call, obviously. My take is that turnout may be up a smidgen from 2010 but I'd be very surprised if it exceeds 70% - that would be a big jump and one at odds with the historical trend.
I've sold on SPIN at 69.7 and also taken Coral's generous 2.62 on 65% to 69.99%
https://www.facebook.com/CrueltyFreeInternational
Despite North Korea being just a few miles from Seoul and a recent attack on an American diplomat, security at the Assembly is trivial compared with Westminster. My phone and keys set off the alarm as I went in, but the guard merely smiled cheerfully and waved me on. Reminiscent of more relaxed days in Westminster, probably gone forever.
Why t F wasn't she selected earlier?
http://www.ncpolitics.uk/2015/02/history-guide-turnout-will-72.html/
But all the sentiment on here (and elsewhere) is for low turnout so I still haven't bet high yet.
Witham. Should be "bright" too!
However, I'd be wary of being too confident without seeing the voting roll numbers. The ERS has suggested that 800k voters between 18-21 are not on the register. That's presumably a disproportionate number compared with older age groups but is still huge and would bump up last time's turnout by more than 1% by itself.
@DawnHFoster: "The evolution of man" http://t.co/DgL7NusuHf
I think that the difference between ordinary people and the elite, is that while ordinary people generally consider discrimination or use of racial insults wrong, its not something that (except in extreme cases) they would disown a friend or relation over, whereas the great and good (or "elite" if you prefer) regard it as a blasphemy above all other blasphemies and deserving of the blasphemer being cast into social darkness or even prison (and are actively trying to prosletyse this view and impose it on everyone as the only acceptable view).
Basically ordinary folk think the powers that be have got the whole thing totally out of all proportion and are being far too bossy about something rather trivial compared with the real concerns of is there enough money to pay the rent or buy food, is there any hope of a job or is granny being looked after properly in hospital. Hence why large numbers are planning to vote for a cheeky chappie who is sticking two fingers up at them.
And seeing people being thrown in prison basically for calling people names (racial insults) with gigantic media hoo hah when vicious thugs who put people in hospital or indecently assault them often get off with a fine or community service or the authorities can't even be bothered to investigate and prosecute utterly enrages and scandalises people.
SouthamObserver Posts: 7,748
4:50PM
Bond_James_Bond said:
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So there's no reason for left-wing ex-public schoolboys to whip up hatred against them then? Or to want to bias the university admissions system against independent schools, given that they confer no advantage?
Well, we do know that state school pupils tend to out-perform private school students with higher grades at universities,, so for the sake of the country there is some sense in positively discriminating in favour of state school pupils.
http://www.theguardian.com/education/2014/jun/06/universities-urged-lower-entry-grades-comprehensive-school-pupils
We don't know that, in fact. The author of that study suggests that "If you have in front of you student from a state school and one from a private school with the same A-level grades, on average – and I should emphasise it is on average – it does appear that the student from the state school background or less effective school will go on to do better given the grades that they are entering with."
She is saying that on average someone with the same grades will do better on average, not that someone with Bs from a comp will outperform someone with As from a grammar. If she's saying that someone from a comp with BBB will get a 2.1 and someone with BBB from a private school will get a 2.2 then you need to control for where those results come from. A 2.1 from Keele is not better than a 2.2 from Imperial.
Cambridge University has looked at this pretty rigorously and has concluded the exact opposite. There is no difference in Tripos outcome discernible from where you were educated. If this were not so, Cambridge's academic standing would decline in consequence of taking 45% of its intake from private schools. If that were happening, they'd stop doing so. Cambridge has been elitist for 700 years, and correctly regards this trait as a virtue.
Those who get good enough A Levels to get in will come away with comparable degrees, regardless of where they got the A Levels. Private schools are disproportionately effective at getting them those A Levels.
This happens because every child is expected to deliver their full potential, and if this is not delivered the parents and their money walk.
Re "global warming" versus "climate change" this chart from Google Ngrams suggests that GW was the preferred term until about 1994. CC then pulled away as it became clearer that there wasn't any discernible warming and people were therefore starting to laugh at GW:
https://books.google.com/ngrams/graph?content=global+warming,+climate+change&year_start=1988&year_end=2014&corpus=15&smoothing=3&share=&direct_url=t1;,global warming;,c0;.t1;,climate change;,c0
This one is about how they've been tolerating mass child rape in Sheffield with side issues of dubious accounting and distorting crime figures:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-31872553
Still the South Yorkshire plods have the confidence of home Secretary Theresa May and Police Minister Mike Penning.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-manchester-31857066
Greater Manchester, South Yorkshire, Thames Valley - the plods always more interested in protecting themselves than the actual victims..
I've cast a postal vote the past few elections and I completely concur with Mike, it's completed and posted within 24 hours but I do appreciate having some time with the form before ticking the box rather than being hurried in a polling booth. I think many people interested in politics like the experience of voting but in my experience most people find it a hassle/necessary evil.
One of Dave's mates.
http://thejusticegap.com/2014/11/whistleblowers-diary-criming-stats/
Inspector Gadget and Nightjack both used to blog about this.
If a crime is going to be difficult to prosecute (unreliable testimony, alcohol and drug usage, and a perception by the victim that they have a "boyfriend" rather than an abuser all add their elements to this) then there is a strong incentive to "no-crime" the case and to move onto something that will successfully meet the target.
It is all laid out in detail in Gadgets book:
http://www.amazon.co.uk/Perverting-Course-Justice-Hilarious-Shocking/dp/1906308047
A kipper supporting that lefty organisation 38 whatsits. Let's have some evidence and facts please not hysterical rants.
http://m.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-somerset-29627011
I think that I would rather carry on waiting...
But having read their CVs I have an idea...
As a matter of interest have there been people put in prison for calling people names? I can't think of any cases - but if there are I'd be interested.
But being called rude words may well be trivial and not worthy of having police time etc being devoted to it.
Equally, being thrown out of a job or not employed or paid less for the same work or refused a restaurant table or a bed in a hotel or a flat because someone decides that they don't like women or "poofters" or "Pakis" is not a trivial matter. It's demeaning and wasteful and shaming. Such things did happen and those who endured it did not find it trivial and those who did it are not, really people to be admired. Anymore than we admire now those who attack Muslims and call them "terrorists" or those who attack Jews.
The fact that we did take steps in the 60's and later to address these sorts of issues is something to be admired and not to be thrown away lightly. Babies and bathwater, and all that.
checks betting slip
I'm on Charlotte at 33/1. Just something for you to factor in...
However, I'd be wary of being too confident without seeing the voting roll numbers. The ERS has suggested that 800k voters between 18-21 are not on the register. That's presumably a disproportionate number compared with older age groups but is still huge and would bump up last time's turnout by more than 1% by itself.
Probably not statistically significant either given the number of councillors and the number of council by-elections.
I have voted CON in every GE since I was old enough to vote, but will probably vote UKIP in May. I do appreciate that in a weigh the Tory vote constituency such as Hertsmere, my vote means the square root of sod all.
Thrown out of a job - fairly difficult to repeatedly do without getting caught but got round by not employing them in the first place.
Paid less for the same work - pretty universal with the replacement of collective bargaining with individual pay.
Not employed - easy to achieve (outside the public sector or large corporations which are very bureacratised) unless you are over honest, crass or stupid. Indeed the mere fact that someone black, female or gay could ruin a small business by claiming discrimination probably makes it more difficult for such people.
Refused a restaurant table or a bed in a hotel or a flat - speak to any experienced such business owner. There are ways and means- usually deployed to get rid of people who might upset the harmony of the place rather than for bigoted reasons- the Christian B&B owners copped it because they told the truth rather than politely explained that the radiator in their room had sprung a leak and flooded the floor and there were no other spare rooms.
Basically we have legalised and bureacratised a whole section of personal interaction in an attempt to stamp out poor social behaviour. It is easily got round and no doubt the left would see more laws and restrictions on liberty as the solution, again it will be got round and more authoritarian measures etc.
I really don't think that if all the discrimination laws were abolished we would see large amounts of black people thrown out of work - the racist employers have already got round it - and I think it would actually help reduce employment because the vast majority of non racist small business employers won't be deterred from taking on black people for fear that a rotten apple could invent racism claims and ruin them.
Similarly, if the discrimination laws went and someone put up no blacks or irish outside their boarding house - how long do you think their windows would last after someone photographed the sign and put it on widely read social media?
We have to get away from the idea that legislation is a way of solving societies problems, as such well meaning legislation often makes them worse.
Its not as if there are not a longstanding raft of laws covering offensive behaviour (such as swearing at people), breach of the peace, assault etc. and if the reason for such behaviour was bigotry then then leave the judge to take such aggravating factors into account when sentencing.
However, all we've seen so far is a canvasser and (separately) a leaflet from Labour and a big blue poster in a field for the Tories.
Which, if she's messing up the chances of improving the road network, is likely to be counter-productive.
This elite of course are yet another minority. I think we can see where we are going here with all the prejudiced out there with a vast confection of chips on their shoulder.
Why do anti-Cameroons make up so much nonsense?
If Ed wins on May 7th, I'll accept the verdict. If he joins with the SNP to form a majority and Scotland gets extra goodies, I'll be irritated but accept it. That's democracy.
If Ukip were to somehow to win a majority (unlikely, I know, but this is a thought experiment), I would accept it (with some trepidation but that's democracy). If the Greens were to win a majority, I wouldn't emigrate, but I might start looking for a warm cave in the Pennines.
But would Antifrank and many others on here accept a Ukip government because the people have spoken? JackW probably; but for some, is democracy only acceptable when the 'right' people win?
We have a chunk of 'progressive' opinion unable to accept that others may have different opinions. They 'know' the others are wrong.
I spent my life as a scientist. A good scientist is never sure of anything, even measurable things. Yet 'progressive' people know everything without doubt. Did they ever grow up?
http://electionsetc.com/2015/03/13/forecast-update-13-march-2015/
I was a member of Hertsmere Conservatives from 97-05 or so up until Howard wanted to reclassify Cannabis as class B.
Why wasn't there an open primary?
UAH data set shows no warming for 16 years.
They are the only two publicly available satellite data sets and both show no warming.
But I see your pavlovian reflex to automatically defend this government still continues.
I'll refer you to DavidL's comments about the SYP as an example of open-mindedness.
If you want a say in the party, join the party. Don't complain that the members make a choice.
Woud you, as a scientist, measure things with an elastic ruler?
I trust you will have the manners to apologise for using an offensive word.
The local council leader is delighted and it does not look like he was parachuted in.
As for Kensington (isn't that your area??) aren't there now just 3 candidates? Did Central Office have a say in the list? Are any of them a 'mate'?
Back to being chosen by thirty-five men in grubby raincoats or thirty-five women in silly hats. as Sir Humphrey Appleby famously said
I think there will be huge differentials in turnout across the country. In safe Tory, rural seats expect turnout to be 70-80% across the board. In city seats where there are lots of houses of multiple occupancy and student accommodation, expect it to plummet into the low 50s% as a great many discover it was their responsibility to register to vote, not that of their father, uncle, university housing officer etc. Will be particularly interesting to see how this impacts on a number of LibDem marginal where they are fighting to keep out Labour or the Greens.
"And what precisely, CD13, does the FPTP voting system measure?"
It's the old Irish phrase ... "If I were you, sir, I wouldn't start from here." The system has never claimed to be perfect. It's not scientific - it's a combination of psychology and politics.
I'm not a psychologist, but they seem to do an about face in theories every decade or so. At least proper scientists take several decades to do so.
Down thread, we had examples of that. But at least we start from the basis that we may be wrong, no matter how strongly we feel about it.
At the risk of polluting the thread with advertising, and I promise not to do it again, the book wot I wrote (An Ever Rolling Stream - available on Amazon from Wild Wolf Publishing) examines an alternative scientific government. It doesn't end well. I mention this because I don't believe it ever would.
All we can do is accept that democracy has faults too. But I'm still in favour, even if I don't always like the results.
I doubt if Hitler ever wondered .. Am I mistaken? Are my opponents correct?.
The short answer is there is no privatization. What we have is a programme costing something less than 1% of the annual NHS budget, to clear backlogs. Its great to see MikeK supporting the sad pathetic rants of Andy Burnham as reported in the lefty Guardian.
Indeed there is a docufilm on the subject called "I'm Not Black, I'm Coloured: Identity Crisis at the Cape of Good Hope (2009)"
http://www.imdb.com/title/tt1504242/
An aquaintance of my wife, discovering that she is also from southern Africa told her that he is really fed up with people in the UK calling him black all the time rather than coloured!
I'm baffled by the notion of Sky News that video footage of three foolish girls [quite arguably traitors] in Turkey is the biggest story in the world, and worthy of knocking the appalling state of affairs regarding the rape of children into second place.
Some people [not me] are calling for the voting age to be lowered to 16, yet consider these girls (one 15 and two 16 year olds) to be empty-headed children who aren't responsible for their actions.
12 hours 12 minutes 12 seconds
'I'm baffled by the notion of Sky News that video footage of three foolish girls [quite arguably traitors] in Turkey is the biggest story in the world'.
I can't understand why they continue to think this nonsense is newsworthy.
Naturally it's everyone else s fault from the schools,security services,police,border staff etc.
I would imagine the reaction of most viewers is good riddance.