Howdy, Stranger!

It looks like you're new here. Sign in or register to get started.

politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » PB’s LAB insider, Henry G Manson, gives his assessment of

124»

Comments

  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,411
    GIN1138 said:

    Pulpstar said:

    SNP ahead of the Lib Dems.

    What's the SNP number?

    Final number is 5%, but they are ahead in all the tables except the final one so if they weren't rounded they'd be ahead I reckon.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 52,133
    edited March 2015

    JWisemann said:

    Not sure where Dave Herdson got a Tory lead for his monthly average for February

    A magic system whereby you ignore all labour leads
    Don't talk rubbish, odd you never criticised David's methodology when he chose not to include populus, when they were the most favourable pollster to the Tories.
    There is only one genuine ELBOW - accept no imitations!

    :sunglasses:
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    surbiton said:

    Why should he ?

    To salvage ANY seats in Scotland, and seats in England if Eck drives his agenda for the next 5 years.

    Other than that...
  • Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    It's now maybe to start officially calling crossover.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633

    The groups had noticed the latest frenzy over TV debates, but remained unmoved. In previous rounds people have said they would watch the debates if they happened, but those most apt to criticise David Cameron for his reluctance to take part were those already least inclined to vote for him.

    This week again we found nothing to suggest Cameron would be seriously damaged if the debates did not go ahead and he was blamed: “he should spend his time running the country rather than standing on stage”. Indeed since the leaders only seem to “act like children” when they get together, the event would probably not be very enlightening anyway.

    Put that in your BBC News pipe and smoke it.

    The debates are dead.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,041

    JWisemann said:

    Not sure where Dave Herdson got a Tory lead for his monthly average for February

    A magic system whereby you ignore all labour leads
    Don't talk rubbish, odd you never criticised David's methodology when he chose not to include populus, when they were the most favourable pollster to the Tories.
    There is only one genuine ELBOW - accept no imitations!

    :sunglasses:
    :sunil_glasses: ;)
  • Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    antifrank said:

    Scott_P said:

    @JohnRentoul: 51% of Labour voters and 86% of Tory voters would be "unhappy" with SNP in govt – Ashcroft poll http://t.co/4fSD3b3n86

    When will Ed rule out a deal?

    44% of Labour supporters would be happy with the SNP in government. They presumably think that they would add some anti-austerity backbone to the Labour leadership.
    I'm one of that 44%.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,411
    RobD said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Pulpstar said:

    SNP ahead of the Lib Dems.

    What's the SNP number?

    If SNP are on 6%, doesn't that translate to 60% in Scotland??
    They are on 54% in Scotland in this poll.
  • TheWatcherTheWatcher Posts: 5,262
    edited March 2015
    MikeK said:

    malcolm campbell ‏@nufcno1fan 19m19 minutes ago
    Ukip spoof Tory ad: Farage pokes fun at Cameron's poster http://www.cityam.com/211130/ukip-spoof-tory-attack-ad-nigel-farage-has-some-fun-camerons-expense … via @CityAM

    Would Farage be in Ed's pocket, or that of a faceless City backer?
  • philiphphiliph Posts: 4,704
    antifrank said:

    Thanks all for their estimates of floors for the two main parties. (Any late entrants also gratefully received.)

    I'm not sure if there is a tipping point where Labour suffer catastrophic losses, we know the Tory got 30% and 165 seats in 1997, is there a point where Labour nose dive?

    Guess Labour 240 Tory 250 for 2015
  • ArtistArtist Posts: 1,893
    edited March 2015
    Strange that people seem to hold the Northern Irish parties in such low regard in this poll. Luckily the DUP have no interest in any sort of coalition.

    You could also say that people don't object to the SNP being involved much more than any of the other nationalist parties.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,195
    So that's the LibDems 6th in a national poll. Struth.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,386
    TGOHF said:

    The groups had noticed the latest frenzy over TV debates, but remained unmoved. In previous rounds people have said they would watch the debates if they happened, but those most apt to criticise David Cameron for his reluctance to take part were those already least inclined to vote for him.

    This week again we found nothing to suggest Cameron would be seriously damaged if the debates did not go ahead and he was blamed: “he should spend his time running the country rather than standing on stage”. Indeed since the leaders only seem to “act like children” when they get together, the event would probably not be very enlightening anyway.

    Put that in your BBC News pipe and smoke it.

    The debates are dead.
    Looks like Lynton got this one right...

  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 52,133

    RobD said:

    Average Tory lead with the pollsters today so far, 1.5%

    Have I missed a poll?
    Populus had a poll out this morning, Lab leading by 1%
    Populus is the Gold Standard! :lol:

    (actually TNS should be, but they seem to have slipped under the radar...)
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,411
    Is Uncle Vince in trouble ?
  • I'm hopeful that we'll see the Ipsos-Mori phone poll this week.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,538
    edited March 2015
    March's eleven polls show five Conservative leads, four Labour leads, and two ties. It definitely looks like parity now. A simple average gives the Conservatives a 0.4% lead.
  • FinancierFinancier Posts: 3,916
    From Lord A:

    "However, even those leaning towards Labour were far from sure the party had learned the right lessons from its previous time in government. For some, doubts about Ed Miliband as Prime Minister made the decision a real dilemma. “Cameron communicates at a number of levels, but with Miliband it’s all up here, talking in theories. You think, ‘that’s all very well but it doesn’t work like that’.” One problem was that “there probably isn’t one working class member of the Labour Party”, let alone any of the others. In fact “none of them has ever done anything proper. They go to university and become career politicians.”

    Well, then. What jobs would the leaders be best suited to outside politics?
    Mr Cameron would be a headmaster, or a company director “in charge of things”.
    Mr Farage would almost certainly be a pub landlord, and a good one at that, or would run his own small but successful business.
    Mr Clegg in the outside world: probably something administrative or perhaps a supermarket store manager.
    Mr Miliband’s ideal job – and this from people who did not know of his previous career – was to be a university professor."

    http://lordashcroftpolls.com/2015/03/ashcroft-national-poll-con-34-lab-30-lib-dem-5-ukip-15-green-8/?utm_source=Lord+Ashcroft+Polls&utm_campaign=67353442e1-RSS_EMAIL_CAMPAIGN&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_b70c7aec0a-67353442e1-71623245
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,041
    Pulpstar said:

    RobD said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Pulpstar said:

    SNP ahead of the Lib Dems.

    What's the SNP number?

    If SNP are on 6%, doesn't that translate to 60% in Scotland??
    They are on 54% in Scotland in this poll.
    Bloomin eck!
  • Pulpstar said:

    Is Uncle Vince in trouble ?

    Yes on this poll.

    Now, who was that brilliantly perceptive PBer that told you to back Con gain Twickers.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    TGOHF said:

    Put that in your BBC News pipe and smoke it.

    The debates are dead.

    But, but, but, people should be going to jail !!

    I'll scweam and scweam and scweam until somebody debates me...
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,411
    Green gain Bristol West I reckon on this poll's numbers tbh.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,041
    Did Miliband overplay his hand when saying not going to a leader's debate will get you put in the nick.
  • SmarmeronSmarmeron Posts: 5,099
    Lord Ashcroft: The Conservatives extend their lead in this week’s Ashcroft National Poll
    Lord Ashcroft KCMG PC

    http://www.conservativehome.com/platform/2015/03/lord-ashcroft-the-conservatives-extend-their-lead-in-this-weeks-ashcroft-national-poll.html
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,963
    Mr. Financier, Chairman Miliband's plan for mandatory debates and gulags for those who refuse may play into this socialist nonsense narrative.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 52,133
    RobD said:

    JWisemann said:

    Not sure where Dave Herdson got a Tory lead for his monthly average for February

    A magic system whereby you ignore all labour leads
    Don't talk rubbish, odd you never criticised David's methodology when he chose not to include populus, when they were the most favourable pollster to the Tories.
    There is only one genuine ELBOW - accept no imitations!

    :sunglasses:
    :sunil_glasses: ;)
    Nice one :):lol:
  • So my prediction for today's polling average looking good!!
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,041

    RobD said:

    JWisemann said:

    Not sure where Dave Herdson got a Tory lead for his monthly average for February

    A magic system whereby you ignore all labour leads
    Don't talk rubbish, odd you never criticised David's methodology when he chose not to include populus, when they were the most favourable pollster to the Tories.
    There is only one genuine ELBOW - accept no imitations!

    :sunglasses:
    :sunil_glasses: ;)
    Nice one :):lol:
    What can I say, I'm a funny guy..... :p
  • RobD said:

    Did Miliband overplay his hand when saying not going to a leader's debate will get you put in the nick.

    Greatest strategic blunder since The Empire of Japan thought bombing the America Pacific Fleet at Pearl Harbour to keep the Americans OUT OF THE WAR, was a good idea.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,736
    Although my views on LARGER are well known.

    I do think that with 7 weeks to go we may potentially have reached CROSSOVER in the polls.

    The deciding factor as to whether EICIPM will be how much further swingback (if any) we see in the next 8 weeks.

    If this is less than 3% I think EICIPM is still on the cards.

    If greater than 3% EWNBPM becomes the more likely .

    Fascinating 7 weeks ahead.
  • Ishmael_XIshmael_X Posts: 3,664
    TGOHF said:

    The groups had noticed the latest frenzy over TV debates, but remained unmoved. In previous rounds people have said they would watch the debates if they happened, but those most apt to criticise David Cameron for his reluctance to take part were those already least inclined to vote for him.

    This week again we found nothing to suggest Cameron would be seriously damaged if the debates did not go ahead and he was blamed: “he should spend his time running the country rather than standing on stage”. Indeed since the leaders only seem to “act like children” when they get together, the event would probably not be very enlightening anyway.

    Put that in your BBC News pipe and smoke it.

    The debates are dead.
    No, the debate over the debates is dead.

    At least one debate will take place, and will shift the polls. Don't know between whom, or which way.
  • Although my views on LARGER are well known.

    I do think that with 7 weeks to go we may potentially have reached CROSSOVER in the polls.

    The deciding factor as to whether EICIPM will be how much further swingback (if any) we see in the next 8 weeks.

    If this is less than 3% I think EICIPM is still on the cards.

    If greater than 3% EWNBPM becomes the more likely .

    Fascinating 7 weeks ahead.

    Just because I'm treating you to pizza tomorrow doesn't mean you have to become a PB Tory and say crossover has happened.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,821
    ** Terminology Note **

    The lord is noble, not good. The Good Lord's polls don't have any margin of error.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,041

    ** Terminology Note **

    The lord is noble, not good. The Good Lord's polls don't have any margin of error.

    Today, this particular lord is "most noble and learn'd".
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,963
    edited March 2015
    @MSmithsonPB: Big driver of CON position in latest Ashcroft poll is higher certainty to vote. Before turnout filter LAB & CON almost level pegging.

    Which I think should be good news for the Tories in the forthcoming Ipsos-Mori
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,514
    RobD said:

    Pulpstar said:

    RobD said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Pulpstar said:

    SNP ahead of the Lib Dems.

    What's the SNP number?

    If SNP are on 6%, doesn't that translate to 60% in Scotland??
    They are on 54% in Scotland in this poll.
    Bloomin eck!
    7th May 1945 one party National socialist government comes to an end in Germany

    7th May 2015 one party National socialist government starts in Scotland

    Oh well, win some lose some :-)
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,963
    edited March 2015
    Toying with the idea of backing Bottas each way to be fastest in the first practice session, at 17 with Ladbrokes (each way = 1/5 odds for top 3). Mercedes often just dick about in P1, and Williams should be pretty fast. Hmm.

    Edited extra bit: backed it with a small stake, and a bit irked that my Alonso bet got made null and void.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,736

    Although my views on LARGER are well known.

    I do think that with 7 weeks to go we may potentially have reached CROSSOVER in the polls.

    The deciding factor as to whether EICIPM will be how much further swingback (if any) we see in the next 8 weeks.

    If this is less than 3% I think EICIPM is still on the cards.

    If greater than 3% EWNBPM becomes the more likely .

    Fascinating 7 weeks ahead.

    Just because I'm treating you to pizza tomorrow doesn't mean you have to become a PB Tory and say crossover has happened.
    I thought the pizza was conditional on CROSSOVER post if not I was only in line for a 1p Burger from the hand made Burger voucher on the back of our Cineworld tickets
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,411

    @MSmithsonPB: Big driver of CON position in latest Ashcroft poll is higher certainty to vote. Before turnout filter LAB & CON almost level pegging.

    Which I think should be good news for the Tories in the forthcoming Ipsos-Mori

    Hope Mike isn't stuck for too much on Lab most seats ;)
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 52,133
    edited March 2015

    RobD said:

    Did Miliband overplay his hand when saying not going to a leader's debate will get you put in the nick.

    Greatest strategic blunder since The Empire of Japan thought bombing the America Pacific Fleet at Pearl Harbour to keep the Americans OUT OF THE WAR, was a good idea.
    I fear all we have done is awaken a sleeping PB Tory and fill him with a terrible resolve!
  • chestnutchestnut Posts: 7,341
    When you read the narrative of the focus groups the message is that politicians are thought to be a bit moronic.

    Perhaps, someone has correctly calculated that one TV debate is pretty much all the public wants to put up with because the public have such a low opinion of the participants?
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,514

    RobD said:

    Did Miliband overplay his hand when saying not going to a leader's debate will get you put in the nick.

    Greatest strategic blunder since The Empire of Japan thought bombing the America Pacific Fleet at Pearl Harbour to keep the Americans OUT OF THE WAR, was a good idea.
    I think all we have done is awaken a sleeping PB Tory and filled him with a terrible resolve!
    LOL
  • Although my views on LARGER are well known.

    I do think that with 7 weeks to go we may potentially have reached CROSSOVER in the polls.

    The deciding factor as to whether EICIPM will be how much further swingback (if any) we see in the next 8 weeks.

    If this is less than 3% I think EICIPM is still on the cards.

    If greater than 3% EWNBPM becomes the more likely .

    Fascinating 7 weeks ahead.

    Just because I'm treating you to pizza tomorrow doesn't mean you have to become a PB Tory and say crossover has happened.
    I thought the pizza was conditional on CROSSOVER post if not I was only in line for a 1p Burger from the hand made Burger voucher on the back of our Cineworld tickets
    Bah, I paid £8.95 for a burger there last week.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633

    @MSmithsonPB: Big driver of CON position in latest Ashcroft poll is higher certainty to vote. Before turnout filter LAB & CON almost level pegging.

    Which I think should be good news for the Tories in the forthcoming Ipsos-Mori

    And the general election..
  • Ishmael_XIshmael_X Posts: 3,664

    Although my views on LARGER are well known.

    I do think that with 7 weeks to go we may potentially have reached CROSSOVER in the polls.

    The deciding factor as to whether EICIPM will be how much further swingback (if any) we see in the next 8 weeks.

    If this is less than 3% I think EICIPM is still on the cards.

    If greater than 3% EWNBPM becomes the more likely .

    Fascinating 7 weeks ahead.

    A doctrinaire chartist to the last. Swingback is a statistical phenomenon occurring over year-plus long periods. Movements in the next seven weeks will be dictated by ed's crapness and by events, dear boy.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 19,975
    I just read this quote from M&C Saatchi.(about why they won't handle Labour)

    "He told the newspaper: “In political advertising, just like any advertising but even more so, the team has to believe in the cause and what it is pushing"

    Talk about hostage to fortune. It would be interesting to go through their client list......
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,326
    Roger said:

    eagle

    The craziest of the bunch was Baruch Goldstein. an American Israeli. Often forgotten but he killed 29 and injured 170 in one Mosque attack. Amazingly after he was killed his grave became a shrine. I think it's something in the air over there

    In Hebron, no? A horrible man and a horrible crime. Why people feel the need to worship mass murderers is a mystery to me.
    Sean_F said:

    http://www.ibtimes.co.uk/charlie-hebdo-named-islamophobe-year-by-muslim-group-ihrc-1491138

    What on earth do Rowan Williams and Peter Oborne think they're doing by endorsing this event?

    Peter Oborne is a supporter of Cage. Rowan Williams is the fool who thought that sharia law should be incorporated into British law.

    I am the proud owner of two copies of the post-massacre Charlie Hebdo edition. If that makes me an Islamophobe, tant pis. I tend to have a phobia about people who want to control what I can think, read and speak, wherever they come from.

  • RobD said:

    Did Miliband overplay his hand when saying not going to a leader's debate will get you put in the nick.

    Greatest strategic blunder since The Empire of Japan thought bombing the America Pacific Fleet at Pearl Harbour to keep the Americans OUT OF THE WAR, was a good idea.
    I fear all we have done is awaken a sleeping PB Tory and fill him with a terrible resolve!
    On the flip side, it did lead to an amazing movie, yes I'm talking about Pearl Harbor by Michael Bay.

    Tora! Tora! Tora! wasn't bad
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,514
    edited March 2015
    Roger said:

    I just read this quote from M&C Saatchi.(about why they won't handle Labour)

    "He told the newspaper: “In political advertising, just like any advertising but even more so, the team has to believe in the cause and what it is pushing"

    Talk about hostage to fortune. It would be interesting to go through their client list......

    I take it you just say sod the ethics how big's the fee ? :-)

  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 52,133
    Ishmael_X said:

    Although my views on LARGER are well known.

    I do think that with 7 weeks to go we may potentially have reached CROSSOVER in the polls.

    The deciding factor as to whether EICIPM will be how much further swingback (if any) we see in the next 8 weeks.

    If this is less than 3% I think EICIPM is still on the cards.

    If greater than 3% EWNBPM becomes the more likely .

    Fascinating 7 weeks ahead.

    A doctrinaire chartist to the last. Swingback is a statistical phenomenon occurring over year-plus long periods. Movements in the next seven weeks will be dictated by ed's crapness and by events, dear boy.
    MacMillan never said "Events, dear boy!" :)
  • OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 9,143

    @MSmithsonPB: Big driver of CON position in latest Ashcroft poll is higher certainty to vote. Before turnout filter LAB & CON almost level pegging.

    Which I think should be good news for the Tories in the forthcoming Ipsos-Mori

    Coalition Liberals. The split of the 2010 Lib Dems (excluding don't knows):
    Con 30%
    Lab 20%
    Lib 17%
    Grn 16%
    UKP 11%
    SNP 5%

    If David Cameron is still PM in June it will be because of centrist Coalition Liberals. You might call them Cameron's Coalition Crutch...
  • philiphphiliph Posts: 4,704
    Ishmael_X said:

    Although my views on LARGER are well known.

    I do think that with 7 weeks to go we may potentially have reached CROSSOVER in the polls.

    The deciding factor as to whether EICIPM will be how much further swingback (if any) we see in the next 8 weeks.

    If this is less than 3% I think EICIPM is still on the cards.

    If greater than 3% EWNBPM becomes the more likely .

    Fascinating 7 weeks ahead.

    A doctrinaire chartist to the last. Swingback is a statistical phenomenon occurring over year-plus long periods. Movements in the next seven weeks will be dictated by ed's crapness and by events, dear boy.
    I'm not convinced that the behaviour of the electorate hasn't amended in recent times and that the norm will become late movement (if any movement), and by late I mean the last 8 weeks.

    Our information absorption is so different from 2005 (and even from 2010) as we have multichannel information. So much on social media that many people don't look beyond that until the last minute and then engage brain (where one is in place).
  • notmenotme Posts: 3,293

    @LordAshcroft: Ashcroft National Poll, 6-8 March: CON 34%, LAB 30%, LDEM 5%, UKIP 15%, GRN 8%. Full details on @ConHome, 4pm.

    Changes since last week Con (nc) Lab (-1) LD (-2) UKIP (+1) Greens (+1)

    The debates anger seems to have affected labour more than the tories ;-)
    So a one point swing from Lab to con, and a one point swing from ukip to con puts us to the 2010 result for labs and cons?
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,736

    Although my views on LARGER are well known.

    I do think that with 7 weeks to go we may potentially have reached CROSSOVER in the polls.

    The deciding factor as to whether EICIPM will be how much further swingback (if any) we see in the next 8 weeks.

    If this is less than 3% I think EICIPM is still on the cards.

    If greater than 3% EWNBPM becomes the more likely .

    Fascinating 7 weeks ahead.

    Just because I'm treating you to pizza tomorrow doesn't mean you have to become a PB Tory and say crossover has happened.
    I thought the pizza was conditional on CROSSOVER post if not I was only in line for a 1p Burger from the hand made Burger voucher on the back of our Cineworld tickets
    Bah, I paid £8.95 for a burger there last week.
    1p for a second one isnt it.

    I once told them i would just have the second one.

    Didnt work
  • Although my views on LARGER are well known.

    I do think that with 7 weeks to go we may potentially have reached CROSSOVER in the polls.

    The deciding factor as to whether EICIPM will be how much further swingback (if any) we see in the next 8 weeks.

    If this is less than 3% I think EICIPM is still on the cards.

    If greater than 3% EWNBPM becomes the more likely .

    Fascinating 7 weeks ahead.

    Just because I'm treating you to pizza tomorrow doesn't mean you have to become a PB Tory and say crossover has happened.
    I thought the pizza was conditional on CROSSOVER post if not I was only in line for a 1p Burger from the hand made Burger voucher on the back of our Cineworld tickets
    Bah, I paid £8.95 for a burger there last week.
    1p for a second one isnt it.

    I once told them i would just have the second one.

    Didnt work
    They do BOGOF for Cineworld Cardholders.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,411
    edited March 2015

    @MSmithsonPB: Big driver of CON position in latest Ashcroft poll is higher certainty to vote. Before turnout filter LAB & CON almost level pegging.

    Which I think should be good news for the Tories in the forthcoming Ipsos-Mori

    Coalition Liberals. The split of the 2010 Lib Dems (excluding don't knows):
    Con 30%
    Lab 20%
    Lib 17%
    Grn 16%
    UKP 11%
    SNP 5%

    If David Cameron is still PM in June it will be because of centrist Coalition Liberals. You might call them Cameron's Coalition Crutch...
    23% -> 13% = 2010 LD splitters favourable for Labour
    13% -> 8% Neutral
    8% and below the 2010 Lib Dems start splitting for the Tories.

    Or something like that.
  • TheWatcherTheWatcher Posts: 5,262
    edited March 2015
    Roger said:

    I just read this quote from M&C Saatchi.(about why they won't handle Labour)

    "He told the newspaper: “In political advertising, just like any advertising but even more so, the team has to believe in the cause and what it is pushing"

    Talk about hostage to fortune. It would be interesting to go through their client list......

    As a man of such principle, is it correct to assume that you'll never accept a Directing job for them?
  • Ishmael_XIshmael_X Posts: 3,664

    Ishmael_X said:

    Although my views on LARGER are well known.

    I do think that with 7 weeks to go we may potentially have reached CROSSOVER in the polls.

    The deciding factor as to whether EICIPM will be how much further swingback (if any) we see in the next 8 weeks.

    If this is less than 3% I think EICIPM is still on the cards.

    If greater than 3% EWNBPM becomes the more likely .

    Fascinating 7 weeks ahead.

    A doctrinaire chartist to the last. Swingback is a statistical phenomenon occurring over year-plus long periods. Movements in the next seven weeks will be dictated by ed's crapness and by events, dear boy.
    MacMillan never said "Events, dear boy!" :)
    I never said MacMillan said "Events, dear boy!"

    My default assumption is that people never said what people said they said. What crisis?
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,041

    Although my views on LARGER are well known.

    I do think that with 7 weeks to go we may potentially have reached CROSSOVER in the polls.

    The deciding factor as to whether EICIPM will be how much further swingback (if any) we see in the next 8 weeks.

    If this is less than 3% I think EICIPM is still on the cards.

    If greater than 3% EWNBPM becomes the more likely .

    Fascinating 7 weeks ahead.

    Just because I'm treating you to pizza tomorrow doesn't mean you have to become a PB Tory and say crossover has happened.
    I thought the pizza was conditional on CROSSOVER post if not I was only in line for a 1p Burger from the hand made Burger voucher on the back of our Cineworld tickets
    Bah, I paid £8.95 for a burger there last week.
    1p for a second one isnt it.

    I once told them i would just have the second one.

    Didnt work
    Cheeky bugger! LOL
  • New Thread
  • Scrapheap_as_wasScrapheap_as_was Posts: 10,069
    edited March 2015
    Pulpstar said:

    @MSmithsonPB: Big driver of CON position in latest Ashcroft poll is higher certainty to vote. Before turnout filter LAB & CON almost level pegging.

    Which I think should be good news for the Tories in the forthcoming Ipsos-Mori

    Hope Mike isn't stuck for too much on Lab most seats ;)
    Let's just think about that point by OGH..

    The party in Govt. with 5 years of austerity, costacrisis, pasties, toxicity to be defensive of has supporters who are more certain to vote for it than the iffy voters supporting the only main opposition which could form a new Govt. with their less, nice warm and cuddly better cuts, hit just the wealthy approach.

    Remarkable.
  • MonikerDiCanioMonikerDiCanio Posts: 5,792
    Roger said:

    I just read this quote from M&C Saatchi.(about why they won't handle Labour)

    "He told the newspaper: “In political advertising, just like any advertising but even more so, the team has to believe in the cause and what it is pushing"

    Talk about hostage to fortune. It would be interesting to go through their client list......

    Since you've worked for the odious Saudi regime, Saatchi's show of professional integrity must come as an unwelcome shock.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,736
    Ishmael_X said:

    Although my views on LARGER are well known.

    I do think that with 7 weeks to go we may potentially have reached CROSSOVER in the polls.

    The deciding factor as to whether EICIPM will be how much further swingback (if any) we see in the next 8 weeks.

    If this is less than 3% I think EICIPM is still on the cards.

    If greater than 3% EWNBPM becomes the more likely .

    Fascinating 7 weeks ahead.

    A doctrinaire chartist to the last. Swingback is a statistical phenomenon occurring over year-plus long periods. Movements in the next seven weeks will be dictated by ed's crapness and by events, dear boy.
    Cracking open the Champagne on the back of LARGER would be a great idea IMO
  • Tissue_PriceTissue_Price Posts: 9,039

    @MSmithsonPB: Big driver of CON position in latest Ashcroft poll is higher certainty to vote. Before turnout filter LAB & CON almost level pegging.

    Which I think should be good news for the Tories in the forthcoming Ipsos-Mori

    Coalition Liberals. The split of the 2010 Lib Dems (excluding don't knows):
    Con 30%
    Lab 20%
    Lib 17%
    Grn 16%
    UKP 11%
    SNP 5%

    If David Cameron is still PM in June it will be because of centrist Coalition Liberals. You might call them Cameron's Coalition Crutch...
    It just goes to show that the 2010 Lib Dems were an all-things-to-all-men party.
  • MikeKMikeK Posts: 9,053
    Suzanne Evans ‏@SuzanneEvans1 Mar 8
    Defend 'European values' with an army, says @JunckerEU. What he means is take over UK army & crush British values of freedom & democracy.

    I hear on the Telegraph grapevine that Cammo and Co want to reduce our armed forces (land) to only 50K.

    That means that after taking all the support troops out, there will be a maximum of 15K frontline forces, (i,e. Soldiers that actually fight). Tories and the rest of the lab/Libs selling out the country.

  • RogerRoger Posts: 19,975
    Labour look to be in trouble. Made worse by them no longer even picking up the woeful Lib Dem defectors who seem to be disappearing into the ether. I have to say it hasn't yet felt like Labour was in control. If it wasn't fo Nick's canvasses I'd think it could be game over
  • MikeKMikeK Posts: 9,053
    Nigel Farage ‏@Nigel_Farage 8h8 hours ago
    "There won't be any huge migrant surges into the UK" the establishment told you, whilst calling UKIP "fruitcakes"... http://youtu.be/P4Gt3QJiAyA

    UKIP right again.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 52,133
    New ED
  • FinancierFinancier Posts: 3,916
    edited March 2015

    Mr. Financier, Chairman Miliband's plan for mandatory debates and gulags for those who refuse may play into this socialist nonsense narrative.

    With our global client base, we always try to understand the mind and the reasoning of each of our clients. However EdM just defeats me. He does not appear to live in the real world - or at least try to understand it.It would appear that he is beloved of his late father's academic theorism and has just not moved away from it.

    As time goes by, his statement that he would compel the UK energy companies to hold/reduce their prices - notwithstanding global market supply and demand - illustrates his impractical theorism perfectly.

    As the UK is a net importer of energy (and even many of the UK energy companies are not British owned) why does he think that the energy supply companies and countries will not sell their product to the highest bidder? So if the price of energy quadrupled, how would EdM propose to keep the lights on - have 650 treadmills installed in the HoC (and even more in the Lords) - at least more MPs would be more gainfully employed!!
  • MikeKMikeK Posts: 9,053
    edited March 2015

    @SkyNews @AlanJohnson35 @Nigel_Farage Anyone that disagrees with this clearly has a hidden agenda. pic.twitter.com/oV3OFLiEdD

    — kevin saunders (@h8kes) March 9, 2015
  • PongPong Posts: 4,693
    Cyclefree said:

    Roger said:

    eagle

    The craziest of the bunch was Baruch Goldstein. an American Israeli. Often forgotten but he killed 29 and injured 170 in one Mosque attack. Amazingly after he was killed his grave became a shrine. I think it's something in the air over there

    In Hebron, no? A horrible man and a horrible crime. Why people feel the need to worship mass murderers is a mystery to me.
    Sean_F said:

    http://www.ibtimes.co.uk/charlie-hebdo-named-islamophobe-year-by-muslim-group-ihrc-1491138

    What on earth do Rowan Williams and Peter Oborne think they're doing by endorsing this event?

    Peter Oborne is a supporter of Cage. Rowan Williams is the fool who thought that sharia law should be incorporated into British law.

    I am the proud owner of two copies of the post-massacre Charlie Hebdo edition. If that makes me an Islamophobe, tant pis. I tend to have a phobia about people who want to control what I can think, read and speak, wherever they come from.

    I took a tour around hebron with these guys;

    http://www.tiph.org/

    What a fascinating and utterly bonkers place - like a living lesson in the subjectivity of truth.

    Has anyone else been?
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    Pulpstar said:

    Is Uncle Vince in trouble ?

    Yes on this poll.

    Now, who was that brilliantly perceptive PBer that told you to back Con gain Twickers.
    Audrey?
  • FlightpathFlightpath Posts: 4,012
    MikeK said:

    Suzanne Evans ‏@SuzanneEvans1 Mar 8
    Defend 'European values' with an army, says @JunckerEU. What he means is take over UK army & crush British values of freedom & democracy.

    I hear on the Telegraph grapevine that Cammo and Co want to reduce our armed forces (land) to only 50K.

    That means that after taking all the support troops out, there will be a maximum of 15K frontline forces, (i,e. Soldiers that actually fight). Tories and the rest of the lab/Libs selling out the country.

    Thats why your grapevine is a load of rubbish. If ... could ... suggests... may...

    Somehow a denial is 'forced'. Why would anyone volunteer a denial of something which is not happening??

  • GeoffMGeoffM Posts: 6,071

    All five of those 'Predictors' suggest EICIPM.

    Do they? They mostly suggest no viable government. In that scenario, staggering on with a Cameron minority government is a quite likely, albeit short-term, outcome.
    NB also the May2015 one is a Nowcast, so is actually quite promising for the Tories (or, perhaps more correctly, poor for Labour) if you give any credit at all to swingback.
    Well, true, and if you give any credit at all to The Second Coming all bets are off.
    Even if He did return I suspect several Labour candidates would refuse to be photographed with Him.
    Perhaps it depends on God's dress sense? What if He wore a t-shirt celebrating Lady Thatcher's death ... even the Labour leader is happy to be photographed next to one of those.

    order-order.com/2012/09/11/awkward-ed-silent-on-thatcher-death-taunt-t-shirts/
This discussion has been closed.