"Jackie "vote Labour" Bird just announced on Reporting Scotland lunchtime that the new BBC tactic for beating the SNP is to spend the whole week talking about Immigration."
Listened to what was a near identical word for word presentation on Good Morning Scotland around 8 am (radio) being clearly the literal soundtrack to the visual plus soundtrack on Reporting Scotland at 1.30pm.
Strangely enough!-and I recollect it quite clearly-GMS referred BOTH to the 7% immigrant percentage of Scotland and compared it to a figure of 15% in England. This comparison was completely omitted in Reporting Scotland, undoubtedly with the express political purpose of pretending that the issue is as significant for Scotland as for England.
Jackie Bird (Labour) speaking to the avowedly unionist BBC Scotland business editor Douglas Fraser.
You have to be blind, deaf, and dumb not to spot the BBC Scotland's institutional unionism.
I don't say they're not elegant just that they want perfect noses and nearly all have some plastic surgery. Nonetheless they're for the most part very feisty. And because the society is so broken up nearly everyone from the same grouping knows everyone else. So all middle class Christian women will tend to know each other which I imagine your ambassador was. It is a delightful country full of contradictions. my knowledge of Syria is very scant and not very nice. he Lebanese treat them as low caste slaves but that's just the way it is.
It was more the line that the Conservatives would take the army back to Cromwell or some such.
Cromwell's army was very effective.
And comparatively massive, it would be equivalent to an army of a quarter of a million today as a share of population.
Well if you are running a military dictatorship you need a large military.
If HMG is serious about defence in the 21st century then it could do a lot worse than abolish the army altogether, take Crab Air out of the ground pounding role, beef up the RM (one more brigade plus support units - artillery engineers etc) to provide such short-term expeditionary work as maybe needed and use the savings to put the RN back to a sensible, balanced fleet with war-fighting capability.
"...The debate format is intrinsically one which favours those who can safely carp from the sidelines. "
Too true, Richard, but a comment that would apply equally well to Politicalbetting.com , and one or two other forums besides.
Henry's right that the 'debate' is likely to turn into a 6 v 1 tag match with Dave beleaguered from all sides. It might well prove worse than the original 4-person proposal, and certainly worse than no debate at all, which is where we appear to be heading.
Can't blame Dave. He may pay a price, but a fairly small one, I'd imagine.
I Think its a first for me. The campaign hasn't officially started and I cannot bear to listen to all the lies and smears.. I reached for the off button on my radio.
On this model, the four to stay out of their clutches are Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale & Tweeddale, Orkney & Shetland, Glasgow North East and East Renfrewshire. The first and the last of these seats would be on a knife-edge (though it should also be pointed out that Rutherglen & Hamilton West and Glenrothes would be SNP on a knife-edge the other way).
As you pointed out in your excellent blog-post, the odds on East Lothian look particularly strange. On that model the SNP have a 21% majority. However you look at it, it's hard to understand why they are at 7/4 in East Lothian (Hills no longer offer the 2/1), but odds-on in other seats where they need a bigger swing.
I can see the argument - why take the risk? - but I don't think the Tories are sufficiently assured of winning this to think they don't need to take risks.
In the last several months Tories have understandably sought to draw parallels with the 1992 general election. We could argue for ages over the similarities and differences between then and now, and whether the similarities or differences are more important.
However, one of the defining images of the 1992 general election was Major campaigning across Britain from the vantage point of his soapbox. The clearest parallel with the 2015 general election is the empty lectern Cameron refuses to fill in the election debates.
In terms of political imagery, Cameron's team need to create campaigning events that look a lot like Major in 1992, to counter the charge that he won't face public scrutiny. I wonder what they will come up with?
"Win" is hardly accurate is it? And I have never underestimated the bovine Englishman's ability to bend over for anyone they think has "proper breeding" It explains why the rest of the world sniggers behind your backs.
On this model, the four to stay out of their clutches are Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale & Tweeddale, Orkney & Shetland, Glasgow North East and East Renfrewshire. The first and the last of these seats would be on a knife-edge (though it should also be pointed out that Rutherglen & Hamilton West and Glenrothes would be SNP on a knife-edge the other way).
All of the Edinburgh seats would fall to the SNP on majorities of over 20%. On the betting markets, the SNP are odds against in Edinburgh South and Edinburgh North & Leith.
Incidentally, does any other constituency name have three double letters other than Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale and Tweeddale?
All five of those 'Predictors' suggest EICIPM.
The best of them for the Tories (Election Forecast) puts them on 288 seats, tantalising close to the 295 or so they would need to entertain hopes of governing through another coalition.
The odds on Cameron to remain PM after the election are a mystery.
On this model, the four to stay out of their clutches are Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale & Tweeddale, Orkney & Shetland, Glasgow North East and East Renfrewshire. The first and the last of these seats would be on a knife-edge (though it should also be pointed out that Rutherglen & Hamilton West and Glenrothes would be SNP on a knife-edge the other way).
As you pointed out in your excellent blog-post, the odds on East Lothian look particularly strange. On that model the SNP have a 21% majority. However you look at it, it's hard to understand why they are at 7/4 in East Lothian (Hills no longer offer the 2/1), but odds-on in other seats where they need a bigger swing.
Do they? They mostly suggest no viable government. In that scenario, staggering on with a Cameron minority government is a quite likely, albeit short-term, outcome.
"Who Really Runs This country? - 75% of laws made in Brussels"... the burning Union Jack photo.. bit last year
BIG on immigration one side with pics of anti EU & immigration headlines from the Mail and Express
"Only a vote for UKIP is a vote to end mass uncontrolled immigration"!
Graph showing the Havering Euro results
UKIP 43% Con 25% Lab 15%
"UKIP can win in Hornchurch & Upminster"
I would have preferred
(a) to be the candidate! (b) to see more about the closing of local hospitals to make way for housing (c) A photo of Farage would have helped I think... he seems popular
It seems a bit serious would be my criticism, but naturally agree with the points made
Only UKIP and Cons have leafleted and there will be weekly UKIP street canvassing from now on.. I know a lot of people who are going to vote UKIP so 8/1?? Maybe
And of course 75% of our laws ae not made in Brussels. UKIP took a German claim and adjusted it although this ''was not based on any empirical research, but an estimate assisted by “senior political experience” within its ranks.' '' a research paper undertaken by the independent House of Commons library found just 9 per cent of statutory instruments passed in the UK Parliament between 1998-2005 were implementing European legislation.'' ''The fact the UKIP figure was based on a six-year old German analysis, which in itself had flaws, is enough to suggest this claim is a step too far.'' http://blogs.channel4.com/factcheck/is-most-of-the-uks-law-made-in-brussels/1498 In other news the affect of the EU laws was just “6.3 per cent according to the Swedish parliament, 12 per cent according to the Finnish parliament, and between 12 and 19 percent according to the Lithuanian parliament”.
"Who Really Runs This country? - 75% of laws made in Brussels"... the burning Union Jack photo.. bit last year
BIG on immigration one side with pics of anti EU & immigration headlines from the Mail and Express
"Only a vote for UKIP is a vote to end mass uncontrolled immigration"!
Graph showing the Havering Euro results
UKIP 43% Con 25% Lab 15%
"UKIP can win in Hornchurch & Upminster"
I would have preferred
(a) to be the candidate! (b) to see more about the closing of local hospitals to make way for housing (c) A photo of Farage would have helped I think... he seems popular
It seems a bit serious would be my criticism, but naturally agree with the points made
Only UKIP and Cons have leafleted and there will be weekly UKIP street canvassing from now on.. I know a lot of people who are going to vote UKIP so 8/1?? Maybe
How will a vote for ukip end uncontrolled immigration? Answers please.
Because UKIP would control it if elected? and if they get enough votes to put pressure on whoever is PM, they dance to our tune, as Cameron is doing now
Smarmeron.. I do believe that the inbred,over privileged fops came back a few years later and seriously kicked ass.
They didn't, unless you think of the likes of the Covenanters' Revolt as a glorious victory for the Stuarts. The fops had to rely on Monck and the occupation army in Scotland, who turned sides after he collapse of Richard Cromwell's Protectorship. No wonder he was ennobled as Albemarle.
Do they? They mostly suggest no viable government. In that scenario, staggering on with a Cameron minority government is a quite likely, albeit short-term, outcome.
NB also the May2015 one is a Nowcast, so is actually quite promising for the Tories (or, perhaps more correctly, poor for Labour) if you give any credit at all to swingback.
On this model, the four to stay out of their clutches are Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale & Tweeddale, Orkney & Shetland, Glasgow North East and East Renfrewshire. The first and the last of these seats would be on a knife-edge (though it should also be pointed out that Rutherglen & Hamilton West and Glenrothes would be SNP on a knife-edge the other way).
All of the Edinburgh seats would fall to the SNP on majorities of over 20%. On the betting markets, the SNP are odds against in Edinburgh South and Edinburgh North & Leith.
Incidentally, does any other constituency name have three double letters other than Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale and Tweeddale?
All five of those 'Predictors' suggest EICIPM.
The best of them for the Tories (Election Forecast) puts them on 288 seats, tantalising close to the 295 or so they would need to entertain hopes of governing through another coalition.
The odds on Cameron to remain PM after the election are a mystery.
How does Ed get into power on the least favourable indicator (Ladbrokes odds) ?
On this model, the four to stay out of their clutches are Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale & Tweeddale, Orkney & Shetland, Glasgow North East and East Renfrewshire. The first and the last of these seats would be on a knife-edge (though it should also be pointed out that Rutherglen & Hamilton West and Glenrothes would be SNP on a knife-edge the other way).
All of the Edinburgh seats would fall to the SNP on majorities of over 20%. On the betting markets, the SNP are odds against in Edinburgh South and Edinburgh North & Leith.
Incidentally, does any other constituency name have three double letters other than Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale and Tweeddale?
All five of those 'Predictors' suggest EICIPM.
The best of them for the Tories (Election Forecast) puts them on 288 seats, tantalising close to the 295 or so they would need to entertain hopes of governing through another coalition.
The odds on Cameron to remain PM after the election are a mystery.
How does Ed get into power on the least favourable indicator (Ladbrokes odds) ?
Coalition with LD and SNP?
Stretching it a bit, I know, but then it's hard to say what shape Government might take after any of these results.
On this model, the four to stay out of their clutches are Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale & Tweeddale, Orkney & Shetland, Glasgow North East and East Renfrewshire. The first and the last of these seats would be on a knife-edge (though it should also be pointed out that Rutherglen & Hamilton West and Glenrothes would be SNP on a knife-edge the other way).
All of the Edinburgh seats would fall to the SNP on majorities of over 20%. On the betting markets, the SNP are odds against in Edinburgh South and Edinburgh North & Leith.
Incidentally, does any other constituency name have three double letters other than Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale and Tweeddale?
All five of those 'Predictors' suggest EICIPM.
The best of them for the Tories (Election Forecast) puts them on 288 seats, tantalising close to the 295 or so they would need to entertain hopes of governing through another coalition.
The odds on Cameron to remain PM after the election are a mystery.
I have a lot of trust in the by-election swingback prediction, which would make Miliband PM, but I'm finding it hard to stick to it. Miliband appears to have shrunk into the role of Leader of the Opposition.
What are the records on the shortest-serving British Prime Ministers in the last century?
Do they? They mostly suggest no viable government. In that scenario, staggering on with a Cameron minority government is a quite likely, albeit short-term, outcome.
NB also the May2015 one is a Nowcast, so is actually quite promising for the Tories (or, perhaps more correctly, poor for Labour) if you give any credit at all to swingback.
Well, true, and if you give any credit at all to The Second Coming all bets are off.
You can only ask I suppose? "The head of Argentina's tax authority has demanded that HSBC repatriate $3.5bn (£2.3bn) in funds that it says HSBC helped its clients move offshore." http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-31799402
It was more the line that the Conservatives would take the army back to Cromwell or some such.
Cromwell's army was very effective.
And comparatively massive, it would be equivalent to an army of a quarter of a million today as a share of population.
Well if you are running a military dictatorship you need a large military.
If HMG is serious about defence in the 21st century then it could do a lot worse than abolish the army altogether, take Crab Air out of the ground pounding role, beef up the RM (one more brigade plus support units - artillery engineers etc) to provide such short-term expeditionary work as maybe needed and use the savings to put the RN back to a sensible, balanced fleet with war-fighting capability.
I have the impression that abolishing the army is exactly what this government wants to do.
On this model, the four to stay out of their clutches are Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale & Tweeddale, Orkney & Shetland, Glasgow North East and East Renfrewshire. The first and the last of these seats would be on a knife-edge (though it should also be pointed out that Rutherglen & Hamilton West and Glenrothes would be SNP on a knife-edge the other way).
All of the Edinburgh seats would fall to the SNP on majorities of over 20%. On the betting markets, the SNP are odds against in Edinburgh South and Edinburgh North & Leith.
Incidentally, does any other constituency name have three double letters other than Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale and Tweeddale?
All five of those 'Predictors' suggest EICIPM.
The best of them for the Tories (Election Forecast) puts them on 288 seats, tantalising close to the 295 or so they would need to entertain hopes of governing through another coalition.
The odds on Cameron to remain PM after the election are a mystery.
How does Ed get into power on the least favourable indicator (Ladbrokes odds) ?
Coalition with LD and SNP?
Stretching it a bit, I know, but then it's hard to say what shape Government might take after any of these results.
Will the Lib Dems abstein from a confidence motion in the interests of forming a Gov't ?
Do they? They mostly suggest no viable government. In that scenario, staggering on with a Cameron minority government is a quite likely, albeit short-term, outcome.
Minority Government is certainly looking a very good bet at the moment.
Surbiton .. Win means beating the opposition.. in this case The Cromwell founded army.. and it was done by those ineffectual inbreds and fops..surely not..do you suggest that the Cromwell Army was not also recruited from inbreds.. all those men at arms who were dragooned from all walks of life and very small villages.not much to do in those places..no tv..no footie.. no pub..they had to do something to pass the time in those little one bedroom cottages Scotland ..Land of the free and almost totally owned by absent landlords.. Whose sniggering at whom I wonder.
You can only ask I suppose? "The head of Argentina's tax authority has demanded that HSBC repatriate $3.5bn (£2.3bn) in funds that it says HSBC helped its clients move offshore." http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-31799402
Yes but was he serious ? You'll probably find most of the politicians would rather keep their money in Switzerland.
Do they? They mostly suggest no viable government. In that scenario, staggering on with a Cameron minority government is a quite likely, albeit short-term, outcome.
NB also the May2015 one is a Nowcast, so is actually quite promising for the Tories (or, perhaps more correctly, poor for Labour) if you give any credit at all to swingback.
Well, true, and if you give any credit at all to The Second Coming all bets are off.
Even if He did return I suspect several Labour candidates would refuse to be photographed with Him.
@richardDodd We are seldom on speaking terms, but they do put out a supply of kindling for us every year. I have never understood why they label it "No Camping", but never look a gift horse in the mouth I say.
The best of them for the Tories (Election Forecast) puts them on 288 seats, tantalising close to the 295 or so they would need to entertain hopes of governing through another coalition.
They don't need a coalition, Peter. They just need to agree a big, federalised carve up with Sturgeon.
On this model, the four to stay out of their clutches are Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale & Tweeddale, Orkney & Shetland, Glasgow North East and East Renfrewshire. The first and the last of these seats would be on a knife-edge (though it should also be pointed out that Rutherglen & Hamilton West and Glenrothes would be SNP on a knife-edge the other way).
All of the Edinburgh seats would fall to the SNP on majorities of over 20%. On the betting markets, the SNP are odds against in Edinburgh South and Edinburgh North & Leith.
Incidentally, does any other constituency name have three double letters other than Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale and Tweeddale?
All five of those 'Predictors' suggest EICIPM.
The best of them for the Tories (Election Forecast) puts them on 288 seats, tantalising close to the 295 or so they would need to entertain hopes of governing through another coalition.
The odds on Cameron to remain PM after the election are a mystery.
How does Ed get into power on the least favourable indicator (Ladbrokes odds) ?
Coalition with LD and SNP?
Stretching it a bit, I know, but then it's hard to say what shape Government might take after any of these results.
Will the Lib Dems abstein from a confidence motion in the interests of forming a Gov't ?
No idea.
Apart from a steadily increasing conviction that no Party will have an Overall Majority, I have no strong opinions as to the likely composition of the next Government.
If we now accept TV leaders debates are part of the election process, then all leaders should attend them, so they can discuss their plans for the future and have them questionned. Could you imagine what would have happened in the US in 2012, if Obama had said that he was not willing to take part in the TV debates ?
Democratic debates can be painful for politicians, but that is the choice they made when standing to become MP's or leaders. If they don't like it, perhaps it is time they choose another career option.
The best of them for the Tories (Election Forecast) puts them on 288 seats, tantalising close to the 295 or so they would need to entertain hopes of governing through another coalition.
They don't need a coalition, Peter. They just need to agree a big, federalised carve up with Sturgeon.
Won't happen, Labour will abstain from a confidence motion before the SNP do I reckon.
If we now accept TV leaders debates are part of the election process, then all leaders should attend them, so they can discuss their plans for the future and have them questionned. Could you imagine what would have happened in the US in 2012, if Obama had said that he was not willing to take part in the TV debates ?
Democratic debates can be painful for politicians, but that is the choice they made when standing to become MP's or leaders. If they don't like it, perhaps it is time they choose another career option.
America is a poor example to use.
The first Presidential debate was in 1960, the next one was 16 years later.
I STILL can't understand the rationale behind Ed Balls protesting against Tory cuts, if in the inevitable follow-up questions he is not going to guarantee that Labour won't make the same cuts. Who does he think it's going to convince?
The craziest of the bunch was Baruch Goldstein. an American Israeli. Often forgotten but he killed 29 and injured 170 in one Mosque attack. Amazingly after he was killed his grave became a shrine. I think it's something in the air over there
If the SNP win 50+ seats will they really want to bring down a Con govt and roll the dice again ?
I suspect not.
I think the SNP voting against any sort of Conservative confidence motion is a given, I'm far less sure Labour would do so - Labour politicians could well get stuck on trains etc as they don't fancy the prospect of Gov't having been resoundingly thrashed at the GE.
Edwina lives there now if she gets involved maybe Labour have a chance!! In reality though it is a near certain Cons hold the sitting MP for a politician is generally held in very high regard.
On this model, the four to stay out of their clutches are Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale & Tweeddale, Orkney & Shetland, Glasgow North East and East Renfrewshire. The first and the last of these seats would be on a knife-edge (though it should also be pointed out that Rutherglen & Hamilton West and Glenrothes would be SNP on a knife-edge the other way).
All of the Edinburgh seats would fall to the SNP on majorities of over 20%. On the betting markets, the SNP are odds against in Edinburgh South and Edinburgh North & Leith.
Incidentally, does any other constituency name have three double letters other than Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale and Tweeddale?
All five of those 'Predictors' suggest EICIPM.
The best of them for the Tories (Election Forecast) puts them on 288 seats, tantalising close to the 295 or so they would need to entertain hopes of governing through another coalition.
The odds on Cameron to remain PM after the election are a mystery.
I have a lot of trust in the by-election swingback prediction, which would make Miliband PM, but I'm finding it hard to stick to it. Miliband appears to have shrunk into the role of Leader of the Opposition.
What are the records on the shortest-serving British Prime Ministers in the last century?
Home (defeated) Bonar Law (resigned, then died) did less than a year.
Others, Baldwin, Macdonald did less than a year, but came back...
If the SNP win 50+ seats will they really want to bring down a Con govt and roll the dice again ?
I suspect not.
I think the SNP voting against any sort of Conservative confidence motion is a given, I'm far less sure Labour would do so - Labour politicians could well get stuck on trains etc as they don't fancy the prospect of Gov't having been resoundingly thrashed at the GE.
I have my own theory on what the SNP might aim at in a hung Parliament, but I don't wish to unveil that theory today.
@TGOHF "If the SNP win 50+ seats will they really want to bring down a Con govt and roll the dice again ? I suspect not.
You think they would prop one up?"
Riiiiiight!......are you allowed out on your own? The SNP are running on a platform of painting the Labour party as being "in bed" with the Tories? And you think they would help them stay in government?
If we now accept TV leaders debates are part of the election process, then all leaders should attend them, so they can discuss their plans for the future and have them questionned. Could you imagine what would have happened in the US in 2012, if Obama had said that he was not willing to take part in the TV debates ?
Democratic debates can be painful for politicians, but that is the choice they made when standing to become MP's or leaders. If they don't like it, perhaps it is time they choose another career option.
America is a poor example to use.
The first Presidential debate was in 1960, the next one was 16 years later.
But they are now a regular feature of US elections.
Remember it was Cameron who wanted the debates and who now thinks they are not a good idea.
If people still trust Cameron, then I would question their judgement.
If the SNP win 50+ seats will they really want to bring down a Con govt and roll the dice again ?
I suspect not.
I think the SNP voting against any sort of Conservative confidence motion is a given, I'm far less sure Labour would do so - Labour politicians could well get stuck on trains etc as they don't fancy the prospect of Gov't having been resoundingly thrashed at the GE.
I have my own theory on what the SNP might aim at in a hung Parliament, but I don't wish to unveil that theory today.
If we now accept TV leaders debates are part of the election process, then all leaders should attend them, so they can discuss their plans for the future and have them questionned. Could you imagine what would have happened in the US in 2012, if Obama had said that he was not willing to take part in the TV debates ?
Democratic debates can be painful for politicians, but that is the choice they made when standing to become MP's or leaders. If they don't like it, perhaps it is time they choose another career option.
How are the debates democratic? I'm sure there are many a minor party that would disagree with that!
On this model, the four to stay out of their clutches are Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale & Tweeddale, Orkney & Shetland, Glasgow North East and East Renfrewshire. The first and the last of these seats would be on a knife-edge (though it should also be pointed out that Rutherglen & Hamilton West and Glenrothes would be SNP on a knife-edge the other way).
All of the Edinburgh seats would fall to the SNP on majorities of over 20%. On the betting markets, the SNP are odds against in Edinburgh South and Edinburgh North & Leith.
Incidentally, does any other constituency name have three double letters other than Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale and Tweeddale?
All five of those 'Predictors' suggest EICIPM.
The best of them for the Tories (Election Forecast) puts them on 288 seats, tantalising close to the 295 or so they would need to entertain hopes of governing through another coalition.
The odds on Cameron to remain PM after the election are a mystery.
I have a lot of trust in the by-election swingback prediction, which would make Miliband PM, but I'm finding it hard to stick to it. Miliband appears to have shrunk into the role of Leader of the Opposition.
What are the records on the shortest-serving British Prime Ministers in the last century?
If the SNP win 50+ seats will they really want to bring down a Con govt and roll the dice again ?
I suspect not.
I think the SNP voting against any sort of Conservative confidence motion is a given, I'm far less sure Labour would do so - Labour politicians could well get stuck on trains etc as they don't fancy the prospect of Gov't having been resoundingly thrashed at the GE.
I have my own theory on what the SNP might aim at in a hung Parliament, but I don't wish to unveil that theory today.
Edwina lives there now if she gets involved maybe Labour have a chance!! In reality though it is a near certain Cons hold the sitting MP for a politician is generally held in very high regard.
Yes, that's what I meant - I don't see Labour winning High Peak.
Note also that this Nowcast has Labour most Votes, Conservatives most seats.
David Cameron is right to stand firm on televised debates, argues Leo McKinstry
NEVER ones to downplay their importance, the broadcasters are attempting to whip up public anger over the stalled negotiations for the TV debates in the run-up to the General Election.
On this model, the four to stay out of their clutches are Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale & Tweeddale, Orkney & Shetland, Glasgow North East and East Renfrewshire. The first and the last of these seats would be on a knife-edge (though it should also be pointed out that Rutherglen & Hamilton West and Glenrothes would be SNP on a knife-edge the other way).
All of the Edinburgh seats would fall to the SNP on majorities of over 20%. On the betting markets, the SNP are odds against in Edinburgh South and Edinburgh North & Leith.
Incidentally, does any other constituency name have three double letters other than Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale and Tweeddale?
All five of those 'Predictors' suggest EICIPM.
The best of them for the Tories (Election Forecast) puts them on 288 seats, tantalising close to the 295 or so they would need to entertain hopes of governing through another coalition.
The odds on Cameron to remain PM after the election are a mystery.
I have a lot of trust in the by-election swingback prediction, which would make Miliband PM, but I'm finding it hard to stick to it. Miliband appears to have shrunk into the role of Leader of the Opposition.
What are the records on the shortest-serving British Prime Ministers in the last century?
I agree that Miliband has actually shrunk as his tenure has gone on. He was still far from the "full shilling" when he started off as leader, but he had potential to be decent back then imo. No-one ever believes me when i say this, but at the leadership debate I went to, the consensus was that he was more charismatic than David Miliband. He still had a funny voice, but he atleast was capable of saying things in something vaguely close to English, whereas now every sentence he utters sounds like it's been through a Thinktank Translation Machine.
Edwina lives there now if she gets involved maybe Labour have a chance!! In reality though it is a near certain Cons hold the sitting MP for a politician is generally held in very high regard.
Yes, that's what I meant - I don't see Labour winning High Peak.
Note also that this Nowcast has Labour most Votes, Conservatives most seats.
Naively, I would have thought Tory most votes Lab most seats would be more likely, especially if they lose all those seats in Scotland where they used to weigh votes.
Edwina lives there now if she gets involved maybe Labour have a chance!! In reality though it is a near certain Cons hold the sitting MP for a politician is generally held in very high regard.
Yes, that's what I meant - I don't see Labour winning High Peak.
Note also that this Nowcast has Labour most Votes, Conservatives most seats.
Naively, I would have thought Tory most votes Lab most seats would be more likely, especially if they lose all those seats in Scotland where they used to weigh votes.
Labour have lost 1% of the UK vote and 5% of the UK seats at a rough estimate with Scotland.
That sort of thing has implications for all the markets.
Edwina lives there now if she gets involved maybe Labour have a chance!! In reality though it is a near certain Cons hold the sitting MP for a politician is generally held in very high regard.
Yes, that's what I meant - I don't see Labour winning High Peak.
Note also that this Nowcast has Labour most Votes, Conservatives most seats.
Don't talk nonsense, the system works against the Tories. Remember GE2005...
Mr. 565, the delivery's weaker, but word-for-word, Miliband now speaks in Blairite terms. Next time he's on TV, imagine Blair saying what Miliband says, and you'll see the words are practically identical.
Mr. Johnno, I agree that the broadcasters are overstepping the mark by some way, but it's also worth noting print media will generally be against the debates for similar reasons of self-interest.
I've been banging the drum for a little while about the possibility of a Labour minority minority government. If we get one, however, Ed Miliband will not necessarily be the Prime Minister of it.
I've been banging the drum for a little while about the possibility of a Labour minority minority government. If we get one, however, Ed Miliband will not necessarily be the Prime Minister of it.
I've got the bets firmly separated out on the spreadsheet. Labour Majority is the only scenario I'm counting Balls and Miliband in as winners for their various ministry bets.
@TGOHF "If the SNP win 50+ seats will they really want to bring down a Con govt and roll the dice again ? I suspect not.
You think they would prop one up?"
Riiiiiight!......are you allowed out on your own? The SNP are running on a platform of painting the Labour party as being "in bed" with the Tories? And you think they would help them stay in government?
Comments
"Jackie "vote Labour" Bird just announced on Reporting Scotland lunchtime that the new BBC tactic for beating the SNP is to spend the whole week talking about Immigration."
Listened to what was a near identical word for word presentation on Good Morning Scotland around 8 am (radio) being clearly the literal soundtrack to the visual plus soundtrack on
Reporting Scotland at 1.30pm.
Strangely enough!-and I recollect it quite clearly-GMS referred BOTH to the 7% immigrant percentage of Scotland and compared it to a figure of 15% in England. This comparison was completely omitted in Reporting Scotland, undoubtedly with the express political purpose of pretending that the issue is as significant for Scotland as for England.
Jackie Bird (Labour) speaking to the avowedly unionist BBC Scotland business editor Douglas Fraser.
You have to be blind, deaf, and dumb not to spot the BBC Scotland's institutional unionism.
I don't say they're not elegant just that they want perfect noses and nearly all have some plastic surgery. Nonetheless they're for the most part very feisty. And because the society is so broken up nearly everyone from the same grouping knows everyone else. So all middle class Christian women will tend to know each other which I imagine your ambassador was. It is a delightful country full of contradictions. my knowledge of Syria is very scant and not very nice. he Lebanese treat them as low caste slaves but that's just the way it is.
If HMG is serious about defence in the 21st century then it could do a lot worse than abolish the army altogether, take Crab Air out of the ground pounding role, beef up the RM (one more brigade plus support units - artillery engineers etc) to provide such short-term expeditionary work as maybe needed and use the savings to put the RN back to a sensible, balanced fleet with war-fighting capability.
Yes, and put one of our reject Scots back on the throne.
"...The debate format is intrinsically one which favours those who can safely carp from the sidelines. "
Too true, Richard, but a comment that would apply equally well to Politicalbetting.com , and one or two other forums besides.
Henry's right that the 'debate' is likely to turn into a 6 v 1 tag match with Dave beleaguered from all sides. It might well prove worse than the original 4-person proposal, and certainly worse than no debate at all, which is where we appear to be heading.
Can't blame Dave. He may pay a price, but a fairly small one, I'd imagine.
win.
However, one of the defining images of the 1992 general election was Major campaigning across Britain from the vantage point of his soapbox. The clearest parallel with the 2015 general election is the empty lectern Cameron refuses to fill in the election debates.
In terms of political imagery, Cameron's team need to create campaigning events that look a lot like Major in 1992, to counter the charge that he won't face public scrutiny. I wonder what they will come up with?
"Win" is hardly accurate is it? And I have never underestimated the bovine Englishman's ability to bend over for anyone they think has "proper breeding"
It explains why the rest of the world sniggers behind your backs.
The best of them for the Tories (Election Forecast) puts them on 288 seats, tantalising close to the 295 or so they would need to entertain hopes of governing through another coalition.
The odds on Cameron to remain PM after the election are a mystery.
Last week data published showed it was 67%
Liberman: Disloyal Arab-Israelis 'Should Be Beheaded'
Foreign Minister Avigdor Liberman advocated “cutting of the heads” of Arabs who were not loyal to Israel.
http://www.israelnationalnews.com/News/News.aspx/192309#.VP2qS_ysV0Z
Stretching it a bit, I know, but then it's hard to say what shape Government might take after any of these results.
What are the records on the shortest-serving British Prime Ministers in the last century?
"The head of Argentina's tax authority has demanded that HSBC repatriate $3.5bn (£2.3bn) in funds that it says HSBC helped its clients move offshore."
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-31799402
Scotland ..Land of the free and almost totally owned by absent landlords.. Whose sniggering at whom I wonder.
Those absentee landlords have supplied meat for my freezer for many a year, gord bless 'em!
We are seldom on speaking terms, but they do put out a supply of kindling for us every year.
I have never understood why they label it "No Camping", but never look a gift horse in the mouth I say.
Apart from a steadily increasing conviction that no Party will have an Overall Majority, I have no strong opinions as to the likely composition of the next Government.
Democratic debates can be painful for politicians, but that is the choice they made when standing to become MP's or leaders. If they don't like it, perhaps it is time they choose another career option.
The first Presidential debate was in 1960, the next one was 16 years later.
I suspect not.
The craziest of the bunch was Baruch Goldstein. an American Israeli. Often forgotten but he killed 29 and injured 170 in one Mosque attack. Amazingly after he was killed his grave became a shrine. I think it's something in the air over there
https://twitter.com/piersmorgan/status/574935393855897600
Scotland will look the way that Salmond wanted it to, shared currency union etc, but without official independence.
The Tories will sell for EV4EL.
The United States of Britain and Northern Ireland.
One of the posters here produces a polls graph on an online chart website. Does anyone have a link to it?
Welcome back, Mr. Llama. One trusts conquering the Mediterranean hasn't worn you out?
the website is https://datawrapper.de/
Bonar Law (resigned, then died)
did less than a year.
Others, Baldwin, Macdonald did less than a year, but came back...
"If the SNP win 50+ seats will they really want to bring down a Con govt and roll the dice again ?
I suspect not.
You think they would prop one up?"
Riiiiiight!......are you allowed out on your own?
The SNP are running on a platform of painting the Labour party as being "in bed" with the Tories? And you think they would help them stay in government?
Remember it was Cameron who wanted the debates and who now thinks they are not a good idea.
If people still trust Cameron, then I would question their judgement.
Of course dear.
The record for the last century was the 211 days by Andrew Bonar Law. Miliband would have to last into December to beat that.
Note also that this Nowcast has Labour most Votes, Conservatives most seats.
NEVER ones to downplay their importance, the broadcasters are attempting to whip up public anger over the stalled negotiations for the TV debates in the run-up to the General Election.
http://www.express.co.uk/comment/columnists/leo-mckinstry/562675/David-Cameron-is-right-to-refused-TV-debates-ahead-of-Election
Well said Leo.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_Kingdom_general_election,_1923
http://goo.gl/9RfFdf
That sort of thing has implications for all the markets.
The only Labour leader more hated than Blair by his own side?
https://twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/status/574928486307078144
Mr. Johnno, I agree that the broadcasters are overstepping the mark by some way, but it's also worth noting print media will generally be against the debates for similar reasons of self-interest.
Yes.... Inevitable....
Bloody Wikipedia, no mention of why it was inevitable.
Are you the author RobD ?
He didn't do especially well last time, but says they've made some improvements to their modelling., so the site might be worth keeping an eye on.
Seats where Labour and the Tories finished 1-2 or 2-1 in 2010: 284/650
Or 30.
or 20.
Would it look such a smart move then ?
http://skepticsannotatedbible.com/says_about/decapitation.html
OT decapitations. David, notably, did Goliath. In all cases it seems to be done to generate portable evidence of a killing, rather than as a killing method in its own right.
If they kept the Tories in, how many would they get?
Well that's what I say.