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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The debates stand off: This could have been the afternoon when DC won GE15 or lost it

So now we have it. Number 10 had made its final offer on the TV debates which had been rejected by the broadcasters who say they are going ahead with their three events irrespective of Cameron’s view.

Read the full story here

Tissue_Price

For what it's worth, neither can betfair. No move on this news.

saddened

In the real world nobody gives a flying one.

Danny565

Nick Palmer raised a good point on the last thread. Even if Cameron manages to get the debates shelved without any damage to his reputation, this is still yet another week where all the political focus has been on something which isn't of the Conservatives' choice - and considering they still are behind in the polls (just), any week where they fail to proactively make up some ground is a small defeat.

Yorkcity

saddened said:

In the real world nobody gives a flying one.

True they will be desperately waiting for the manifesto launches.

Alistair

https://twitter.com/twitonatrain/status/573920437295529984

Yes along the horizontal, SNP perecntage along the vertical

Pulpstar

Dave really could be overplaying this too far now, I need the Tories to hold Elmet, Kingswood and Portsmouth North !

FF sake Dave,

Just do them, he'll probably win against Ed and the other two will be draws anyway.

Danny565

Pulpstar said:

Dave really could be overplaying this too far now, I need the Tories to hold Elmet, Kingswood and Portsmouth North !

FF sake Dave,

Just do them, he'll probably win against Ed and the other two will be draws anyway.

All those 3 are probably safe even if miracle struck and Labour were to get a majority (except perhaps Kingswood), surely?

ShropshireLadd

To be honest I've not met one person remotely interested in the debates, which of course they are not, just a turn for each leader to utter platitudes without debate, discussion or any intellectual worth. A waste of time and effort all round. cameron will do well to avoid and get on with the election without the tv channels trying to dictate their own agendas. Personnally myself I couldnt give a brass monkeys and wouldnt watch if paid.

Sean_F

Danny565 said:

Nick Palmer raised a good point on the last thread. Even if Cameron manages to get the debates shelved without any damage to his reputation, this is still yet another week where all the political focus has been on something which isn't of the Conservatives' choice - and considering they still are behind in the polls (just), any week where they fail to proactively make up some ground is a small defeat.

My guess is they have made up a little bit of ground this week.

I liked the second and third debates last time (I missed the Cleggasm). I think Cameron should have taken part. But, I don't see this issue moving many votes at all.

Stereotomy

FPT:

December: "Cameron's so clever! He really really wants the debates, but he's negotiating them to be on his terms."

February: "Cameron's so clever! He doesn't want the debates, so he's negotiating to avoid them happening without taking the blame."

March: "Well debates are dumb anyway."

Pulpstar

Danny565 said:

Pulpstar said:

Dave really could be overplaying this too far now, I need the Tories to hold Elmet, Kingswood and Portsmouth North !

FF sake Dave,

Just do them, he'll probably win against Ed and the other two will be draws anyway.

All those 3 are probably safe even if miracle struck and Labour were to get a majority (except perhaps Kingswood), surely?

@Antifrank tipped up Kingswood ages ago at 3-1
Portsmouth is 1-2, Elmet 9-2 but Paddy limited stake (Nabavi tip)

MikeK

Cameron will be called CHICKEN by all opponents, going up to the GE.
Chicken Chicken Chicken Chicken Chicken Chicken Chicken Chicken Chicken Chicken Chicken Chicken Chicken Chicken Chicken Chicken Chicken Chicken Chicken Chicken Chicken Chicken Chicken Chicken Chicken Chicken Chicken Chicken Chicken Chicken........................!!!!!!

Cluck, Cluck, Cluck................................!!!!

hucks67

Mike, Cameron will just have to say ASAP that he will take part, but that he would like the debates earlier in the campaign period and for them to not take over all of the campaign.

This compromise will gain acceptance and the debates will go ahead with Cameron, but just on different dates than planned.

corporeal

Sean_F said:

Danny565 said:

Nick Palmer raised a good point on the last thread. Even if Cameron manages to get the debates shelved without any damage to his reputation, this is still yet another week where all the political focus has been on something which isn't of the Conservatives' choice - and considering they still are behind in the polls (just), any week where they fail to proactively make up some ground is a small defeat.

My guess is they have made up a little bit of ground this week.

I liked the second and third debates last time (I missed the Cleggasm). I think Cameron should have taken part. But, I don't see this issue moving many votes at all.

The debates themselves will do a bit, at some point the noise around if Cameron will turn up will make more difference to his perception than the debtes would.

He has to compromise at least on the date or the broadcasters can just let it slide by and see what he does next.

FrankBooth

Matthew Taylor was on Newsnight on Tuesday making the point that the public are remarkably unengaged in the election campaign. No doubt people will blame the debates for sucking the life out of the campaign. Alternatively they could be the only thing that sucks life into it. Anyway the fact we are two months from a completely uncertain general election and all that is being debated is the debates themselves doesn't auger too well.

Alistair

https://twitter.com/twitonatrain/status/573921950449426433

For the @Pulpstar and @antifrank amongst us

SMukesh

Let me rephrase:

Man decides to slit his wrists-is that good or bad for him?

Man doesn`t turn up for interview-Did he get the job?

Tissue_Price

Alistair said:

https://twitter.com/twitonatrain/status/573920437295529984

Yes along the horizontal, SNP perecntage along the vertical

On that note, here's an outlandish but informed tip: Tories to win East Dunbartonshire @ 150/1

Hengists_Gift

FPT

chestnut said:

» show previous quotes
The issue is the media controlling parliament.

Cameron is right to say that it isn't up to Murdoch and co to determine how electoral campaigns are conducted.

An invitation should not oblige the recipient to accept.

The problem is I believe that neither Ofcom nor the Electoral Commission have the power to intervene and in this case when we are talking about a significant new (as of 2010) enhancement to the campaign process really the whole issue should be deferred to them to come up with guidelines by which the TV Companies and political parties should adhere to.

What is clear is this current farce is embarrassing and damaging to our electoral system. Its like telling five year olds that they have the run of the kitchen to make a cake. All you get is one almighty mess

YossariansChild

FPT

Spectacular own goal by Cameron. He should have taken the revised offer from the broadcasters, that was a win for him. Now he looks, and will increasingly look, shifty, untrustworthy and, most importantly, unprime-ministerial.

The broadcasters in their letter today have left the door open for Cameron to turn up until the last minute. For those on here who believe that the prospect of Ed v an empty chair would be broadcasting suicide consider this:

At every morning news conference, at every walkabout the first, second, and third question asked will be "Will you be attending the debate?"

The broadcasters will bombard the airwaves with pre-debate adverts and news reports based on "Will Cameron show up?". It will make the coverage of "who killed Lucy Beale?" seem insignificant.

And then one day, on one walkabout, or one phone-in Cameron will be faced with a little old lady who will give him both barrels on his cowardice on the debates. That one moment will then be on an endless loop across the news across the campaign with, no doubt, a ubiquitous youtube video and "downfall" parody.

The moment will arrive, on the day the papers will be leading with - "D-day for Cameron" The Times, "Cameron the Chicken" The Mirror, "The REAL debate challenge: when will Phillip debate the ghost of Diana", The Express..

The debate will happen, viewing figures will be through the roof, and Ed will be alone. Those viewers may well then change channels in droves. The damage to Cameron will, however, have been done. It will be far from negligible.

An entirely preventable and monumental own-goal.

And to think that finally the polls were turning to the Tories.

(edited for typos may not have caught them all )

and

One other thing to note. Im not sure, but wasn't the last time someone withdrew from a debate John McCain in 2008. He "suspended" his campaign - including his debate with Obama - in order to "deal with the financial crisis". He was going to be empty-chaired, Obama said something like "to be President you have to deal with more than one thing at a time". McCain caved with a day to spare.

Lessons? 1. You will be empty-chaired and you will give in 2. After the debate no one will care.

Cameron should take note.

Danny565

FrankBooth said:

Matthew Taylor was on Newsnight on Tuesday making the point that the public are remarkably unengaged in the election campaign.

They really are - and I don't see it changing even as the election gets closer. Some of my friends who have ALWAYS voted and usually been moderately interested in politics, are just fed up and not paying any attention this time.

Sub-60% turnout is close to nailed on, imo.

Smarmeron

@hucks67
And the broadcasters will turn round and tell him that they don't have time to change the logistics that quickly, then ask him to further reconsider.
Many people said it was suicidal of Ed M, to take on Murdoch, but it is apparently a master-stroke by Dave to take on all of them bar his section of the press.

Tissue_Price

YossariansChild said:

Im not sure, but wasn't the last time someone withdrew from a debate John McCain in 2008. He "suspended" his campaign - including his debate with Obama - in order to "deal with the financial crisis". He was going to be empty-chaired, Obama said something like "to be President you have to deal with more than one thing at a time". McCain caved with a day to spare.

Lessons? 1. You will be empty-chaired and you will give in 2. After the debate no one will care.

Cameron should take note.

Nah, it was about a week ago, as Pulpstar noted:

http://tlv1.fm/so-much-to-say/2015/02/26/why-netanyahu-wont-do-the-televised-debate/

Lesson? 1. You will be empty-chaired 2. After the debate no one will care.

Scott_P

@tnewtondunn: Wonderful. @krishgm reveals that Sky News's Jonathan Levy is refusing to debate Jacob Rees-Mogg on #c4news about TV debates.

Hengists_Gift

FrankBooth said:

Matthew Taylor was on Newsnight on Tuesday making the point that the public are remarkably unengaged in the election campaign. No doubt people will blame the debates for sucking the life out of the campaign. Alternatively they could be the only thing that sucks life into it. Anyway the fact we are two months from a completely uncertain general election and all that is being debated is the debates themselves doesn't auger too well.

With the Government £1.5 trillion in debt it was never going to be the most dynamic affair. Lacks of fund tends to clip politicians wings.

philiph

hucks67 said:

Mike, Cameron will just have to say ASAP that he will take part, but that he would like the debates earlier in the campaign period and for them to not take over all of the campaign.

This compromise will gain acceptance and the debates will go ahead with Cameron, but just on different dates than planned.

Of all the arguments that is the one that holds most water. The TV companies love them, they get more influence, and that isn't good.

If they go ahead when will they be repeated on Dave?

Alistair

Basically I mocked the Yes-SNP thought line as being far, far too simplistic. Maybe the actual situation is more complex but the simplistic model works.

Ishmael_X

"From Number 10’s perspective this will be old news by the time we get to April and his absence will make the events much lesser occasions."

Exactly.

And if he agrees to participate in the first one only (selling this as a compromise on his initial offer) 2 and 3 will look very silly indeed.

isam

Next couple of weeks PM/leader ratings will be worth a look to see if Dave has copped any flak/gotten any reward for this dithering/gameplaying/shrewdness

Alistair

Tissue_Price said:

Alistair said:

https://twitter.com/twitonatrain/status/573920437295529984

Yes along the horizontal, SNP perecntage along the vertical

On that note, here's an outlandish but informed tip: Tories to win East Dunbartonshire @ 150/1

On this model it's SNP by about a 6000 majority.

JackW

ShropshireLadd said:

To be honest I've not met one person remotely interested in the debates, which of course they are not, just a turn for each leader to utter platitudes without debate, discussion or any intellectual worth. A waste of time and effort all round. cameron will do well to avoid and get on with the election without the tv channels trying to dictate their own agendas. Personnally myself I couldnt give a brass monkeys and wouldnt watch if paid.

22 million viewing the debates in 2010 say you're wrong.

JEO

Personally, I think the concern that David Cameron will look "weak" if he backs down is greatly overplayed. While I'm sure the other parties will try to make it a talking point, the vast majority of the public are not paying close enough attention to these proceedings. Those that are aware will just shrug it off as the rough-and-tumble of politics. It will be far more damaging if he does not appear, as that will mean 15-20 million viewers will be asking the question themselves about why he is not appearing. The inevitable narrative of being scared to defend his record going on for weeks on end, and then deep discussion over it around the time of the three debates, will be far more damaging.

At this point, Cameron needs to just accept he made a mistake and back down. He already won a tremendous victory in getting the Lib Dems and UKIP demoted to minor parties. He must just quickly accede to the existing offer and everyone will have forgotten about his reluctance in a week. My worry is that his refusal to admit when he is wrong, which has been a common theme to much of his leadership, will see him make a minor blunder into a catastrophic error that undermines him for much of our election campaign.

Tissue_Price

Alistair said:

Tissue_Price said:

Alistair said:

https://twitter.com/twitonatrain/status/573920437295529984

Yes along the horizontal, SNP perecntage along the vertical

On that note, here's an outlandish but informed tip: Tories to win East Dunbartonshire @ 150/1

On this model it's SNP by about a 6000 majority.

That's what I have too, with the Tories in 4th. But there are a lot of moving parts.

Sean_F

Media stories shift far fewer votes than is generally appreciated.

GIN1138

Evening news coverage a disaster for Cam...

Hengists_Gift

The other consideration is whether Miliband would want to attend an empty chair debate because he would inevitably become the central protagonist that the others would want to take down. All five remaining parties would have big reasons to best Miliband if he becomes the main man in the debate and if they bested him surely that would damage both Labour but moreso his personal image as a potential future PM. Losing a debate to lesser parties when you are heir apparent could be significantly damaging.

Cameron's (a little damaged from copping out) sits back in Downing Street with a bag of popcorn to watch the mayhem......

coolagorna

Rees Mogg has lost the plot totally on C4..this day
is complete Tory meltdown

"Its all a left wing plot by these well known lefty broadcasters" LOL

Labour majority price will come in from 20s to 1/20 if Jacob gets
any more airings on tv

Forget Manic Monday this is Magic Friday for all
anti Conservative voters

Pulpstar

@Alistair Which is the far bottom right ?

What does this model say for Orkney/Shetland ?

Tissue_Price

Hengists_Gift said:

The other consideration is whether Miliband would want to attend an empty chair debate because he would inevitably become the central protagonist that the others would want to take down. All four remaining parties would have big reasons to best Miliband if he becomes the main man and if they bested him surely that would damage both Labour but moreso his personal image as a potential future PM. Losing a debate to lesser parties when you are heir apparent could be significantly damaging.

Correct, this is now key. I don't think Cameron is going to back down.

Ishmael_X

Thinking it through further a 6 way debate is ed's worst nightmare. That is 5 minor party leaders hungry, in the absence of cameron, to give ed a good shellacking. Odds on none of them succeeding? (This is ed miliband we are talking about).

Dim lefties in premature ejaculation shock.

edit: Hengist *snap* (but why four?)

Tissue_Price

JackW said:

ShropshireLadd said:

To be honest I've not met one person remotely interested in the debates, which of course they are not, just a turn for each leader to utter platitudes without debate, discussion or any intellectual worth. A waste of time and effort all round. cameron will do well to avoid and get on with the election without the tv channels trying to dictate their own agendas. Personnally myself I couldnt give a brass monkeys and wouldnt watch if paid.

22 million viewing the debates in 2010 say you're wrong.

Adding the viewing figures for each debate to arrive at a total is clearly inappropriate!

9.5 + 4 + 8.5 probably doesn't add up to much more than 11. But that's still plenty, of course.

Roger

The question has to be asked what is Cameron scared of? It can only be Ed. Nothing else makes sense.

PS. How many votes did that oaf Rees Mogg just lose the Tories? Who chooses him to represent the party?

Alistair

Pulpstar said:

@Alistair Which is the far bottom right ?

What does this model say for Orkney/Shetland ?

Bottom right On the Yes=SNP it is Glasgow NE, Labour hold by 7 percentage points

The model says Orkney and Shetland is safe LD hold

Con 1509
Lab 1530
LD 8901
UKIP 907
SNP 6618

Sean_F

isam said:

Next couple of weeks PM/leader ratings will be worth a look to see if Dave has copped any flak/gotten any reward for this dithering/gameplaying/shrewdness

No more than 2% either way, IMHO.

Hengists_Gift

Tissue_Price said:

Hengists_Gift said:

The other consideration is whether Miliband would want to attend an empty chair debate because he would inevitably become the central protagonist that the others would want to take down. All four remaining parties would have big reasons to best Miliband if he becomes the main man and if they bested him surely that would damage both Labour but moreso his personal image as a potential future PM. Losing a debate to lesser parties when you are heir apparent could be significantly damaging.

Correct, this is now key. I don't think Cameron is going to back down.

No nor do I and whilst I certainly don't approve of his tactics the office of Prime Minister must not be bested by a gaggle of self-serving TV companies who are interfering with the balance of the election in an unwelcome manner. Therefore, I very much hope he doesn't back down.

SMukesh

Ishmael_X said:

Thinking it through further a 6 way debate is ed's worst nightmare. That is 5 minor party leaders hungry, in the absence of cameron, to give ed a good shellacking. Odds on none of them succeeding? (This is ed miliband we are talking about).

Dim lefties in premature ejaculation shock.

edit: Hengist *snap* (but why four?)

For sure Ed is going to lose a lot of votes because he appears for the debate and Cameron is going to win loads more by hiding behind the sofa.

Danny565

Roger said:

The question has to be asked what is Cameron scared of? It can only be Ed. Nothing else makes sense.

PS. How many votes did that oaf Rees Mogg just lose the Tories? Who chooses him to represent the party?

Cameron/the Tory strategists must have a higher opinion of Miliband than almost everyone else in the country.

Roger

SeanF

"Media stories shift far fewer votes than is generally appreciated."

I can understand the straw clutching. Really. Not since the days of Hague can I remember the Tories looking so dishevelled. I'm starting to feel sorry for them

ShropshireLadd

22 million viewing the debates in 2010 say you're wrong.



Sorry but that just isnt true, 22 million over the three debates maybe but not 22 million individual viewers. Plus it didnt really encourage a much bigger turn out in the election itself. Novelty value of debates soon fades.

SMukesh

Can any of the broadcasters place a cut-out of Cameron hiding behind the empty chair?

Makes it just that little bit more funny for lefties.

coolagorna

Roger said:

The question has to be asked what is Cameron scared of? It can only be Ed. Nothing else makes sense.

PS. How many votes did that oaf Rees Mogg just lose the Tories? Who chooses him to represent the party?

What an disaster..fancy them.putting Rees Mogg up
for an interview? Labour couldnt have picked a more
pompous out of touch Tory posh boy to turn off the
floating voters in droves if theyd been asked

Sean_F

Roger said:

The question has to be asked what is Cameron scared of? It can only be Ed. Nothing else makes sense.

PS. How many votes did that oaf Rees Mogg just lose the Tories? Who chooses him to represent the party?

More likely it's the prospect of debating Farage that bothers him. He can't give UKIP the chance to take off during the campaign.

Stereotomy

SMukesh said:

Ishmael_X said:

Thinking it through further a 6 way debate is ed's worst nightmare. That is 5 minor party leaders hungry, in the absence of cameron, to give ed a good shellacking. Odds on none of them succeeding? (This is ed miliband we are talking about).

Dim lefties in premature ejaculation shock.

edit: Hengist *snap* (but why four?)

For sure Ed is going to lose a lot of votes because he appears for the debate and Cameron is going to win loads more by hiding behind the sofa.

Yeah after all clearly the others will prefer to attack somebody who's there to defend himself rather than go for the open goal

SMukesh

Cameron can have the election.Lefties will have the empty chair.

Stereotomy

Sean_F said:

Roger said:

The question has to be asked what is Cameron scared of? It can only be Ed. Nothing else makes sense.

PS. How many votes did that oaf Rees Mogg just lose the Tories? Who chooses him to represent the party?

More likely it's the prospect of debating Farage that bothers him. He can't give UKIP the chance to take off during the campaign.

Then why is he ducking the 1-1?

SquareRoot

coolagorna said:

Roger said:

The question has to be asked what is Cameron scared of? It can only be Ed. Nothing else makes sense.

PS. How many votes did that oaf Rees Mogg just lose the Tories? Who chooses him to represent the party?

What an disaster..fancy them.putting Rees Mogg up
for an interview? Labour couldnt have picked a more
pompous out of touch Tory posh boy to turn off the
floating voters in droves if theyd been asked

Run out of people to obsess about George and Dave with you on your twitter feed???.. Martin Day would be proud of you.

RobD

SMukesh said:

Can any of the broadcasters place a cut-out of Cameron hiding behind the empty chair?

Makes it just that little bit more funny for lefties.

Yes, that would be very balanced.

Alistair

Alistair said:

Pulpstar said:

@Alistair Which is the far bottom right ?

What does this model say for Orkney/Shetland ?

Bottom right On the Yes=SNP it is Glasgow NE, Labour hold by 7 percentage points

Monster swing of 23.5% mind.

Sean_F

Roger said:

SeanF

"Media stories shift far fewer votes than is generally appreciated."

I can understand the straw clutching. Really. Not since the days of Hague can I remember the Tories looking so dishevelled. I'm starting to feel sorry for them

I hold no brief for Cameron. I'm happy to see him trip himself up. I just think this story is much smaller than media folk believe.

Roger

SMukesh

Can any of the broadcasters place a cut-out of Cameron hiding behind the empty chair?

It's a great shame we don't have Spitting Image any longer. They wouldn't even need a script

coolagorna

I can only imagine Rees Mogg self selects

Hengists_Gift

Danny565 said:

Roger said:

The question has to be asked what is Cameron scared of? It can only be Ed. Nothing else makes sense.

PS. How many votes did that oaf Rees Mogg just lose the Tories? Who chooses him to represent the party?

Cameron/the Tory strategists must have a higher opinion of Miliband than almost everyone else in the country.

Cameron avoids having 6 party leaders taking pops at him and leaves aspiring PM candidate Mr. Ed to face 5 parties who want to take a pop at him. Basically Cameron is trying to manipulate the situation so that it is Miliband that is taken down by the others. Lets see how Ed can defend Immigration, the EU, The Scottish / English question, Trident, the additional costs to domestic energy that he personally pushed through, Labour's economic record pre 2010 etc etc.. From the other side lets see how he deals with the Greens never never land promises and of course see him face up to Nicola Sturgeon.

Basically Miliband would be auditioning for PM with the 5 most antogonistic interviewers he could ever want.

Clearly Cameron thinks that the five non governing parties can do more damage to Ed in the debates if he's not there than he and they would to Ed if he was.

Smarmeron

The Tories No.1 this week.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nvlTJrNJ5lA

Alanbrooke

Danny565 said:

Nick Palmer raised a good point on the last thread. Even if Cameron manages to get the debates shelved without any damage to his reputation, this is still yet another week where all the political focus has been on something which isn't of the Conservatives' choice - and considering they still are behind in the polls (just), any week where they fail to proactively make up some ground is a small defeat.

ROFL

right, and you don;t think the other half of that applies; that Labour haven't advanced their agenda either, or is what you're saying Labour's priorities for a broken nation is a bloke in chicken suit ?

FrankBooth

Interesting to draw a contrast with Brown's election that wasn't. Cameron's debate that wasn't? Still a debate isn't really an election.

MikeL

JEO said:

Personally, I think the concern that David Cameron will look "weak" if he backs down is greatly overplayed. While I'm sure the other parties will try to make it a talking point, the vast majority of the public are not paying close enough attention to these proceedings. Those that are aware will just shrug it off as the rough-and-tumble of politics. It will be far more damaging if he does not appear, as that will mean 15-20 million viewers will be asking the question themselves about why he is not appearing. The inevitable narrative of being scared to defend his record going on for weeks on end, and then deep discussion over it around the time of the three debates, will be far more damaging.

At this point, Cameron needs to just accept he made a mistake and back down. He already won a tremendous victory in getting the Lib Dems and UKIP demoted to minor parties. He must just quickly accede to the existing offer and everyone will have forgotten about his reluctance in a week. My worry is that his refusal to admit when he is wrong, which has been a common theme to much of his leadership, will see him make a minor blunder into a catastrophic error that undermines him for much of our election campaign.

Nail on head.

Cameron backing down is meaningless - far too complicated for 99% of people - 99% won't register it.

Ishmael_X

Roger said:

SMukesh

Can any of the broadcasters place a cut-out of Cameron hiding behind the empty chair?

It's a great shame we don't have Spitting Image any longer. They wouldn't even need a script

coolagorna

I can only imagine Rees Mogg self selects

You don't get it, Roger.

Miliband has dug his own grave. He will get beasted in a 6-way debate - Farage or Sturgeon could eat him alive, and anyone else with a pulse would always be odds-on favourite against him. He has guaranteed himself a humiliating loss in the third division at the moment when he is trying to look like a serious championship contender.

marktheowl

Much of the focus has understandably been on red versus blue over Dave skipping the debates, but it could be a huge boon to UKIP - Farage gets his share of 3 hours of prime time to anoint himself as the only politician prepared to stand up and debate from the right and anti-EU perspective and say that renegotiation is utterly meaningless if the PM is too much of a coward to even debate with him. The other 5 have a pop at him (although the smart move from Ed M would be to try and strike up some sort of adversarial bromance, where he states that while he disagrees with Nige on everything at least he has the guts to debate as them both being honest representatives of 'In' and 'Out') and without Cameron to puncture him among those who are sympathetic to that view he 'wins' over a lot of those who might've been persuaded to go Tory.

Surely if there's one thing worse for Dave than Farage being in a prime time debate, it's Farage being in a prime time debate as effectively the standard bearer of the entire anti-EU right?

Sean_F

FrankBooth said:

Interesting to draw a contrast with Brown's election that wasn't. Cameron's debate that wasn't? Still a debate isn't really an election.

The election that never was would have resulted in, at best, a tiny Labour majority, and his party would have cursed him for throwing away their 56 seat majority.

Ishmael_X

Stereotomy said:

SMukesh said:

Ishmael_X said:

Thinking it through further a 6 way debate is ed's worst nightmare. That is 5 minor party leaders hungry, in the absence of cameron, to give ed a good shellacking. Odds on none of them succeeding? (This is ed miliband we are talking about).

Dim lefties in premature ejaculation shock.

edit: Hengist *snap* (but why four?)

For sure Ed is going to lose a lot of votes because he appears for the debate and Cameron is going to win loads more by hiding behind the sofa.

Yeah after all clearly the others will prefer to attack somebody who's there to defend himself rather than go for the open goal

Concept of "debate" too difficult for leftie shock.

Stereotomy

Ishmael_X said:

Roger said:

SMukesh

Can any of the broadcasters place a cut-out of Cameron hiding behind the empty chair?

It's a great shame we don't have Spitting Image any longer. They wouldn't even need a script

coolagorna

I can only imagine Rees Mogg self selects

You don't get it, Roger.

Miliband has dug his own grave. He will get beasted in a 6-way debate - Farage or Sturgeon could eat him alive, and anyone else with a pulse would always be odds-on favourite against him. He has guaranteed himself a humiliating loss in the third division at the moment when he is trying to look like a serious championship contender.

Yeah because why would Farage take the opportunity to criticise the Tories' EU referendum policy- something which will actually win him votes and which nobody there will argue back against? Obviously he'll solely go after the much smaller number of potential Lab-UKIP switchers, by spending all his time attacking somebody who's actually there to defend himself

GIN1138

How long before Cameron starts getting castigated by his own Party for his handling of this?

Hengists_Gift

marktheowl said:

Much of the focus has understandably been on red versus blue over Dave skipping the debates, but it could be a huge boon to UKIP - Farage gets his share of 3 hours of prime time to anoint himself as the only politician prepared to stand up and debate from the right and anti-EU perspective and say that renegotiation is utterly meaningless if the PM is too much of a coward to even debate with him. The other 5 have a pop at him (although the smart move from Ed M would be to try and strike up some sort of adversarial bromance, where he states that while he disagrees with Nige on everything at least he has the guts to debate as them both being honest representatives of 'In' and 'Out') and without Cameron to puncture him among those who are sympathetic to that view he 'wins' over a lot of those who might've been persuaded to go Tory.

Surely if there's one thing worse for Dave than Farage being in a prime time debate, it's Farage being in a prime time debate as effectively the standard bearer of the entire anti-EU right?

Farage is already the standard bearer for the anti-eu right. Farage will certainly benefit but Camerons calculation on this is that by staying away Farage does not get the opportunity to best him on a number of issues but does get the opportunity to best Miliband. The end result is that it is Miiliband who is at risk of being pictured being defeated not Cameron and of course if Nige doesn't best Miliband then Miliband is doing Dave's work for him as well be putting Farage back in his place.

The more I think about this the more I believe Cameron has much less to lose by sitting it out than taking part.

SMukesh

Stereotomy said:

Ishmael_X said:

Roger said:

SMukesh

Can any of the broadcasters place a cut-out of Cameron hiding behind the empty chair?

It's a great shame we don't have Spitting Image any longer. They wouldn't even need a script

coolagorna

I can only imagine Rees Mogg self selects

You don't get it, Roger.

Miliband has dug his own grave. He will get beasted in a 6-way debate - Farage or Sturgeon could eat him alive, and anyone else with a pulse would always be odds-on favourite against him. He has guaranteed himself a humiliating loss in the third division at the moment when he is trying to look like a serious championship contender.

Yeah because why would Farage take the opportunity to criticise the Tories' EU referendum policy- something which will actually win him votes and which nobody there will argue back against? Obviously he'll solely go after the much smaller number of potential Lab-UKIP switchers, by spending all his time attacking somebody who's actually there to defend himself

Comeon,don`t you know what happens in PB Wonderland?

JEO

Sean_F said:

Roger said:

The question has to be asked what is Cameron scared of? It can only be Ed. Nothing else makes sense.

PS. How many votes did that oaf Rees Mogg just lose the Tories? Who chooses him to represent the party?

More likely it's the prospect of debating Farage that bothers him. He can't give UKIP the chance to take off during the campaign.

That was a perfectly understandable concern in a four-way debate, and shows why it was such a great victory to get the nationalist parties and the Greens included. But it does not explain his current actions: he was prepared to do a single seven-way debate with UKIP included, so why not two seven-ways and one "big boys" debate that will sideline Farage along with the rest?

I also do not agree with those who think that Ed Miliband will be on the receiving end of the abuse. Politicians are hyenas: they prey on the wounded when they can't defend themselves. Cameron is giving them a huge opening here. They will all form a consensus that the Conservatives are only protecting the interests of the rich and no-one will be there to argue otherwise. When a common view like that is expressed in unison from parties of all different stripes, I worry a lot of unaligned viewers will just accept it as a given.

Furthermore, there is the real danger that the planned one-on-one debate will end up with Farage and Clegg invited to make up for Cameron not being there, once again promoting them to the major leagues, as the Americans would say.

This is all in the context of the Conservatives being behind in the polls and needing to shake things up. It just seems like a dramatic tactical blunder. It can still be fixed, but the twenty-something know-it-alls at CCHQ often have too much of their reputations invested in an argument to admit they were wrong. Let's hope they don't wreck the rest of the party and all its hard-working activists with their stubbornness.

dr_spyn

Nick Sutton ‏@suttonnick 10s10 seconds ago
Saturday's Independent:
Former Tory chairman calls for coalition with Labour
#tomorrowspaperstoday #bbcpapers

coolagorna

Ishmael_X said:

Stereotomy said:

SMukesh said:

Ishmael_X said:

Thinking it through further a 6 way debate is ed's worst nightmare. That is 5 minor party leaders hungry, in the absence of cameron, to give ed a good shellacking. Odds on none of them succeeding? (This is ed miliband we are talking about).

Dim lefties in premature ejaculation shock.

edit: Hengist *snap* (but why four?)

For sure Ed is going to lose a lot of votes because he appears for the debate and Cameron is going to win loads more by hiding behind the sofa.

Yeah after all clearly the others will prefer to attack somebody who's there to defend himself rather than go for the open goal

Concept of "debate" too difficult for leftie shock.

Well it seems to be far too difficult a concept for Dave to get his
head around

This debate will be a love in as the four members of the Rainbow
Coalition to be gang up on Nigel while Ed sensibly does a Gordy
and tries to cosy up to one of the three lovely leftie ladies (in
political terms)

Plenty of "I agree with Nicola" on Austerity, Welfare Cuts, NHS, tax
cuts for the rich, bankers bonuses, greedy energy companies and
of course the weak embarassment of soon to be.booted out
PM Daves miserable failure to defend his record

Roger

Alanbrooke

"or is what you're saying Labour's priorities for a broken nation is a bloke in chicken suit ?"

LOL!! It's not just Labour but you've just about hit the nail on the head

dr_spyn

Indy - Lord Baker calls for Grand Coalition of Con & Lab to stop SNP having balance of power.

http://www.independent.co.uk/voices/why-a-conlab-coalition-may-be-needed-to-save-the-united-kingdom-10092247.html

TGOHF

Hengists_Gift said:

marktheowl said:

Much of the focus has understandably been on red versus blue over Dave skipping the debates, but it could be a huge boon to UKIP - Farage gets his share of 3 hours of prime time to anoint himself as the only politician prepared to stand up and debate from the right and anti-EU perspective and say that renegotiation is utterly meaningless if the PM is too much of a coward to even debate with him. The other 5 have a pop at him (although the smart move from Ed M would be to try and strike up some sort of adversarial bromance, where he states that while he disagrees with Nige on everything at least he has the guts to debate as them both being honest representatives of 'In' and 'Out') and without Cameron to puncture him among those who are sympathetic to that view he 'wins' over a lot of those who might've been persuaded to go Tory.

Surely if there's one thing worse for Dave than Farage being in a prime time debate, it's Farage being in a prime time debate as effectively the standard bearer of the entire anti-EU right?

Farage is already the standard bearer for the anti-eu right. Farage will certainly benefit but Camerons calculation on this is that by staying away Farage does not get the opportunity to best him on a number of issues but does get the opportunity to best Miliband. The end result is that it is Miiliband who is at risk of being pictured being defeated not Cameron and of course if Nige doesn't best Miliband then Miliband is doing Dave's work for him as well be putting Farage back in his place.

The more I think about this the more I believe Cameron has much less to lose by sitting it out than taking part.

Farage right wing ? Champion of bringing back the council spare room subsidy. Friend of benefit claimants more like..l

Hengists_Gift

SMukesh said:

Stereotomy said:

Ishmael_X said:

Roger said:

SMukesh

Can any of the broadcasters place a cut-out of Cameron hiding behind the empty chair?

It's a great shame we don't have Spitting Image any longer. They wouldn't even need a script

coolagorna

I can only imagine Rees Mogg self selects

You don't get it, Roger.

Miliband has dug his own grave. He will get beasted in a 6-way debate - Farage or Sturgeon could eat him alive, and anyone else with a pulse would always be odds-on favourite against him. He has guaranteed himself a humiliating loss in the third division at the moment when he is trying to look like a serious championship contender.

Yeah because why would Farage take the opportunity to criticise the Tories' EU referendum policy- something which will actually win him votes and which nobody there will argue back against? Obviously he'll solely go after the much smaller number of potential Lab-UKIP switchers, by spending all his time attacking somebody who's actually there to defend himself

Comeon,don`t you know what happens in PB Wonderland?

But why stop there? If Cameron isn't there Farage can go after Miliband for not offering the referendum and press him on things like ever closer union and where the Labour party would stop handing over sovereignty and as an aside have a pop at Cameron for not stating what his red lines are on EU reform negotiations (he doesn't need to go after the referendum commitment per se). Whether Cameron is there or not the EU is a win-win for Farage just as immigration is

OblitusSumMe

Is Cameron taking part in the first debate, but absenting himself from the others?

bigjohnowls

Stereotomy said:

FPT:

December: "Cameron's so clever! He really really wants the debates, but he's negotiating them to be on his terms."

February: "Cameron's so clever! He doesn't want the debates, so he's negotiating to avoid them happening without taking the blame."

March: "Well debates are dumb anyway."

Very good and very true.

Only on PB

Alistair

dr_spyn said:

Indy - Lord Baker calls for Grand Coalition of Con & Lab to stop SNP having balance of power.

http://www.independent.co.uk/voices/why-a-conlab-coalition-may-be-needed-to-save-the-united-kingdom-10092247.html

I presume this is a troy ploy to boost the SNP vote. Seems mean to sacrifice Mundell..

Alanbrooke

Roger said:

Alanbrooke

"or is what you're saying Labour's priorities for a broken nation is a bloke in chicken suit ?"

LOL!! It's not just Labour but you've just about hit the nail on the head

I'm expecting an emotional Andy Burnham pleading 24 hours to save Foghorn Leghorn,

Sean_F

coolagorna said:

Ishmael_X said:

Stereotomy said:

SMukesh said:

Ishmael_X said:

Thinking it through further a 6 way debate is ed's worst nightmare. That is 5 minor party leaders hungry, in the absence of cameron, to give ed a good shellacking. Odds on none of them succeeding? (This is ed miliband we are talking about).

Dim lefties in premature ejaculation shock.

edit: Hengist *snap* (but why four?)

For sure Ed is going to lose a lot of votes because he appears for the debate and Cameron is going to win loads more by hiding behind the sofa.

Yeah after all clearly the others will prefer to attack somebody who's there to defend himself rather than go for the open goal

Concept of "debate" too difficult for leftie shock.

Well it seems to be far too difficult a concept for Dave to get his
head around

This debate will be a love in as the four members of the Rainbow
Coalition to be gang up on Nigel while Ed sensibly does a Gordy
and tries to cosy up to one of the three lovely leftie ladies (in
political terms)

Plenty of "I agree with Nicola" on Austerity, Welfare Cuts, NHS, tax
cuts for the rich, bankers bonuses, greedy energy companies and
of course the weak embarassment of soon to be.booted out
PM Daves miserable failure to defend his record

Nigel would relish the opportunity to be the sole rightwinger debating six lefties.

Smarmeron

@OblitusSumMe
At the last communiqué no, he wants the only debate moved forward, and his press office is adamant.

richardDodd

This getting funnier by the minute.. now it is claimed by Labour that the TV companies are not blinking ..who gives a shit . The only person who has to blink is the PM, AND HE AINT GONNA DO IT.
Very funny..headless chickens running around screeching and they don't realise they have no idea what they are screeching about..
.

Pulpstar

Alistair said:

dr_spyn said:

Indy - Lord Baker calls for Grand Coalition of Con & Lab to stop SNP having balance of power.

http://www.independent.co.uk/voices/why-a-conlab-coalition-may-be-needed-to-save-the-united-kingdom-10092247.html

I presume this is a troy ploy to boost the SNP vote. Seems mean to sacrifice Mundell..

He's not considering our Scottish panda bets !

TGOHF

If the is a question on the spare room subsidy in the 6 person debate - all 6 will venehmently agree that taxpayers should cough up for spare rooms for those not working... Including Farage.

Flightpath

Sean_F said:

Roger said:

SeanF

"Media stories shift far fewer votes than is generally appreciated."

I can understand the straw clutching. Really. Not since the days of Hague can I remember the Tories looking so dishevelled. I'm starting to feel sorry for them

I hold no brief for Cameron. I'm happy to see him trip himself up. I just think this story is much smaller than media folk believe.

Plus Cameron is right. I hope he does stay out. What gives SKY BBC and ITV the right to dictate how a general election campaign should be run. Their job is to report not dictate offers.

RobD

OblitusSumMe said:

Is Cameron taking part in the first debate, but absenting himself from the others?

Not as it stands. He wants the debate to be earlier (and there is some twitter talk of ITV thinking about possibly taking him up on the offer... buckets of salt on standby)

Hengists_Gift

TGOHF said:

Hengists_Gift said:

marktheowl said:

Much of the focus has understandably been on red versus blue over Dave skipping the debates, but it could be a huge boon to UKIP - Farage gets his share of 3 hours of prime time to anoint himself as the only politician prepared to stand up and debate from the right and anti-EU perspective and say that renegotiation is utterly meaningless if the PM is too much of a coward to even debate with him. The other 5 have a pop at him (although the smart move from Ed M would be to try and strike up some sort of adversarial bromance, where he states that while he disagrees with Nige on everything at least he has the guts to debate as them both being honest representatives of 'In' and 'Out') and without Cameron to puncture him among those who are sympathetic to that view he 'wins' over a lot of those who might've been persuaded to go Tory.

Surely if there's one thing worse for Dave than Farage being in a prime time debate, it's Farage being in a prime time debate as effectively the standard bearer of the entire anti-EU right?

Farage is already the standard bearer for the anti-eu right. Farage will certainly benefit but Camerons calculation on this is that by staying away Farage does not get the opportunity to best him on a number of issues but does get the opportunity to best Miliband. The end result is that it is Miiliband who is at risk of being pictured being defeated not Cameron and of course if Nige doesn't best Miliband then Miliband is doing Dave's work for him as well be putting Farage back in his place.

The more I think about this the more I believe Cameron has much less to lose by sitting it out than taking part.

Farage right wing ? Champion of bringing back the council spare room subsidy. Friend of benefit claimants more like..l

[Yawn] You really don't have anything pertinent to say very often do you?

Smarmeron

@Flightpath
No, their "job" was to reach an equitable deal with all the parties, not pander to Little Lord Flauntleroy.

Hertsmere_Pubgoer

Evening all, looking forward to the drinks do at Shooting Star's tomorrow night.
Who else is going?

Hengists_Gift

TGOHF said:

If the is a question on the spare room subsidy in the 6 person debate - all 6 will venehmently agree that taxpayers should cough up for spare rooms for those not working... Including Farage.

Awww whazza matter don't you like standing all alone on a piece of legislation that has always been decidedly dubious. Would you like us Kippers to hold you wittle hand and say its wonderful when it isn't?

PS It is however a very good example of why Dave would want to stay away from the debates because no question he would get beaten up on that issue.

JamesM

No idea if Cameron will do any debates, but if he wants to stay out of them I think he needs to do a big announcement of say, a 30 leg Town Hall style meeting circuit and offer for a couple to be televised. He can use the argument of wanting to focus on policy, meeting the people and not being stuck in a circus of televised debates where it will just be soundbites.

SMukesh

Smarmeron said:

@OblitusSumMe
At the last communiqué no, he wants the only debate moved forward, and his press office is adamant.

Actually the latest update is that Samantha Cameron is going to stand in for Dave in Debate 2 and Larry the Cat in Debate 3.

Scott_P

Smarmeron said:

@Flightpath
No, their "job" was to reach an equitable deal with all the parties

Which they patently failed to do.

Doh!

HurstLlama

saddened said:

In the real world nobody gives a flying one.

Based on initial research (i.e. asking Herself), which I fully expect to be confirmed by a focus group tomorrow lunchtime (i.e. the people in the saloon bar of the New Inn), the hoo-ha over the proposed debates has passed by the majority of normal, non-obsessive, voters and those few who have noticed could not, as you suggest, give a big rats arse. I think it likely that someone will have to make a much bigger deal of the issues, such as they are, before people will notice and an even bigger deal before it will shift a significant number of votes.

The question I ask of the denizens of this site is how much, if anything, the debates issue will shift money and therefore odds?

bigjohnowls

Hengists_Gift said:

The other consideration is whether Miliband would want to attend an empty chair debate because he would inevitably become the central protagonist that the others would want to take down. All five remaining parties would have big reasons to best Miliband if he becomes the main man in the debate and if they bested him surely that would damage both Labour but moreso his personal image as a potential future PM. Losing a debate to lesser parties when you are heir apparent could be significantly damaging.

Cameron's (a little damaged from copping out) sits back in Downing Street with a bag of popcorn to watch the mayhem......

Is this a PB Tory wet dream?

Cowardly Cameron in every answer IMO