@Antifrank I've got into a "Need to be 10% ahead to make sure an Even money bet wins" type mentality with the whole Scottish thing :P
Which will probably cost me a few hundred profit on the night
Right now I'd say the over/under point for the SNP is at least 50. Even the bets on the SNP that I'd thought were looking iffy look decent now to me. And in my view there remains a lot of value backing the SNP almost everywhere.
It all looks like grist to the Tories most seats mill, too.
It looks like Tory votes, Tory seats... BUT
Keep green on Labour votes, Tory seats if possible would be my advice here. (Or at least make sure you don't have TOO big a hole)
Also a disconnect between Tory most seats and Dave remaining PM. Scottish Labour may be dieing but Dave may not have enough friends to get past 323 in the parliament.
Ashdown's knee to Cameron's groin delivered with the ferocity you'd expect from a former SBS commando on radio 4 this morning has rather set the empty chair agenda whatever Cameron now tries. Even for a pacifist like me there's nothing quite like an Ashdown coup de grace in the morning.
Why did they let him go....and why did they replace him with a weasel
Anyone with any sense can see that it should have been Cameron, Miliband, Clegg and Farage... The nonsense around the rest is just game playing to skew the odds/avoid the debate
Politics is depressing at times. People are praised for manoeuvres that keep them in power with no regard for democracy
Anyone with any sense can see that it should have been Cameron, Miliband, Clegg and Farage... a mix of participants and format that just happens to favour my preferred outcome
Fixed it for you
Ah the unfunny smugness of a smart arse
But you are wrong
To be honest the format that makes the most sense is Cameron and Miliband only. Once you start letting minor parties like UKIP in you have to include the Lib Dems too.
Tories are terrified Cameron will have one of his Flashman moments and blow it, can't say I blame them for ducking it to be honest. Doesn't take much to get under Dave's skin and then the rather unpleasant aspect of his personna slips out for all to see.
The underdog always wants the debates.. Throw some mud is standard practise. IT WILL FALL ON DEAF EARS
Anyone with any sense can see that it should have been Cameron, Miliband, Clegg and Farage... The nonsense around the rest is just game playing to skew the odds/avoid the debate
Politics is depressing at times. People are praised for manoeuvres that keep them in power with no regard for democracy
Anyone with any sense can see that it should have been Cameron, Miliband, Clegg and Farage... a mix of participants and format that just happens to favour my preferred outcome
Fixed it for you
Ah the unfunny smugness of a smart arse
But you are wrong
To be honest the format that makes the most sense is Cameron and Miliband only. Once you start letting minor parties like UKIP in you have to include the Lib Dems too.
The bugger is this "major party" business, if you exclude the kippers and the LDs they will have the right to demand equivalent airtime of equivalent prominence without the big two present to equalise the exposure. If one house north of the border can receive the debate, the SNP will be down their lawyers before you can say "storm in a teacup".
Ashdown's knee to Cameron's groin delivered with the ferocity you'd expect from a former SBS commando on radio 4 this morning has rather set the empty chair agenda whatever Cameron now tries. Even for a pacifist like me there's nothing quite like an Ashdown coup de grace in the morning.
I'm not sure the whole thing is the brilliant political coup for Cameron people think it is. Let's wait and see. It was easy for Blair to get out of a debate with Major, or Major with Kinnock, but the problem for Dave is that we had debates last time and he promoted them. Also there's no more two party politics. It's one thing to have Miliband saying you're frit, but what if it's Clegg Farage, Bennett and various nats saying it's all Cameron's fault for secretly trying to wriggle out of it?
Anyone with any sense can see that it should have been Cameron, Miliband, Clegg and Farage... The nonsense around the rest is just game playing to skew the odds/avoid the debate
Politics is depressing at times. People are praised for manoeuvres that keep them in power with no regard for democracy
Anyone with any sense can see that it should have been Cameron, Miliband, Clegg and Farage... a mix of participants and format that just happens to favour my preferred outcome
Fixed it for you
Ah the unfunny smugness of a smart arse
But you are wrong
To be honest the format that makes the most sense is Cameron and Miliband only. Once you start letting minor parties like UKIP in you have to include the Lib Dems too.
I said from way back the programmes should include all four of them for the first half and just Cameron and Miliband for the last half
Anyone with any sense can see that it should have been Cameron, Miliband, Clegg and Farage... The nonsense around the rest is just game playing to skew the odds/avoid the debate
Politics is depressing at times. People are praised for manoeuvres that keep them in power with no regard for democracy
Anyone with any sense can see that it should have been Cameron, Miliband, Clegg and Farage... a mix of participants and format that just happens to favour my preferred outcome
Fixed it for you
Ah the unfunny smugness of a smart arse
But you are wrong
To be honest the format that makes the most sense is Cameron and Miliband only. Once you start letting minor parties like UKIP in you have to include the Lib Dems too.
The bugger is this "major party" business, if you exclude the kippers and the LDs they will have the right to demand equivalent airtime of equivalent prominence without the big two present to equalise the exposure.
Nick could go for another debate with Farage. I really don't think the Lib Dems have much to lose at this point with their candidates effectively running independent campaigns.
Ashdown's knee to Cameron's groin delivered with the ferocity you'd expect from a former SBS commando on radio 4 this morning has rather set the empty chair agenda whatever Cameron now tries. Even for a pacifist like me there's nothing quite like an Ashdown coup de grace in the morning.
I'm not sure the whole thing is the brilliant political coup for Cameron people think it is. Let's wait and see. It was easy for Blair to get out of a debate with Major, or Major with Kinnock, but the problem for Dave is that we had debates last time and he promoted them. Also there's no more two party politics. It's one thing to have Miliband saying you're frit, but what if it's Clegg Farage, Bennett and various nats saying it's all Cameron's fault for secretly trying to wriggle out of it?
Someone on pb suggested weeks ago that CCHQ's actual strategy was to provoke Miliband into scrapping the debates.
The Green surge and those Conservative poll leads may be focussing left wing minds to be honest. Green voters are the most tactical of the lot, I think they'll attain a decent 2nd place in Sheffield Central seeing as there is no danger of letting the Lib Dems in there.
Hopefully they'll all vote green in Norwich South and Bristol West though Also Labour safe seats could see a decent Green score.
Coup FOR Cameron! I think you have it the wrong way round. Not since General Custer at Little Bighorn has a leader been so roundly trounced. What vain idiocy!
Tories are terrified Cameron will have one of his Flashman moments and blow it, can't say I blame them for ducking it to be honest. Doesn't take much to get under Dave's skin and then the rather unpleasant aspect of his personna slips out for all to see.
The underdog always wants the debates.. Throw some mud is standard practise. IT WILL FALL ON DEAF EARS
Confucious he say "thrown mud falls on deaf ears".
The Green surge and those Conservative poll leads may be focussing left wing minds to be honest. Green voters are the most tactical of the lot, I think they'll attain a decent 2nd place in Sheffield Central seeing as there is no danger of letting the Lib Dems in there.
Hopefully they'll all vote green in Norwich South and Bristol West though Also Labour safe seats could see a decent Green score.
Wasn't anecdotal evidence from NPxMP canvassing suggesting that if anything a few kippers were drifting back home but the Green vote seemed bombproof ? If as we suspect they are mostly ex-LDs that would follow, the self-righteous vote holds on with gritted teeth and fingers in ears until the last possible second before they admit they are with the wrong party.
I need Labour to have an awful night in Scotland and a good one in London so this poll looks good to me.
From the text of the article, a speculative bet on Lynne Featherstone holding on @ 12/5 might be indicated.
I'm not sure, I don't think the London picture has changed much at all even since when Labour were polling ~ 39%, I think they've lost those votes in the Midlands and Scotland mainly - depends how they are using the data:
"Source note: Seat-by-seat analysis based on YouGov findings, adjusted for Ashcroft polls and unique local factors using UK-Elect."
Outside of the self important TV companies, or politics junkies, the TV debates not happening is completely irrelevant. Most people don't care less about politicians and even less remember things that happened 5 years ago on TV.
On the politics of it, why would Cameron do anything to help Miliband? He's the PM, he's rated on a completely different scale to Miliband & Miliband needs a platform to try and look like a leader.
Coup FOR Cameron! I think you have it the wrong way round. Not since General Custer at Little Bighorn has a leader been so roundly trounced. What vain idiocy!
I don't know. I think Cameron could get it in the neck, but you have people like Evan Davies on Newsnight saying it was a slam dunk for Cameron. I'm not so sure but there's certainly a view out there that Cameron has played a blinder on (avoiding) the debates.
Mr. Mark, there's a danger of Miliband over-egging the cake. It could come across as desperate pleading, and given that the favourite tends to not want the debates and the outsider wants them [2010 being a weird case due to the huge polling changes] it would paint Miliband as the outsider and Cameron as favourite.
It's also unpleasant to see the broadcasters coming across as players of the game, rather than reporters of what goes on.
Like antifrank, I believe the debates should happen, they're good for our democracy, and Cameron is a cowardly varlet etc etc. However the Tory leader has played the politics well (by his standards) and will avoid any blame if the debates fail to happen, which is apparently his desire.
What's interesting is that this indicates Tory confidence that they will win. If Cameron was convinced he was likely to lose he would agree to the debates as a possible gamechanger. But he doesn't want to change the game. He scents victory.
I think this is the most important aspect of this. Once again we see the Tories very confident about the outcome of the election and Labour thinking they need a game changer. I find this very perplexing given the current state of the polling, even given the improvement in the Tory position in the last week or so.
Labour look and sound like they think they are going to lose. And I don't really know why.
At first I thought it was just tactics from Cameron to seek a slight advantage Now according to Ashdowne-as honest a broker as you can find-refusing to face Miliband is because he's frit and he's going to do all he can to make sure that Miliband faces an empty chair. In other words an hour long PPB for Labour. I wonder if Miliband really is much quicker on his feet as has been said?
Judging by those Ashcroft polls the Conservatives have a pretty good ground game going to hold Dumfrieshire, whereas Labour clearly thought they just had to show up in Kirkcaldy to hold it.
ON topic, here's a true story: a Doctor told a friend of mine that if he carried on smoking & drinking he'd die before 65.
My friend said "OK" and cashed in his pension
The man's a dude. For many the prospect of poverty and decepitude in old age is truly terrifying. We're constantly bombarded with advice that will help us to live longer without touching at all on the quality of life so many old or about to become old will endure.
Live long and prosper - great advice for the better off.
Die young stay pretty - better advice for everyone else.
Mr. Mark, there's a danger of Miliband over-egging the cake. It could come across as desperate pleading, and given that the favourite tends to not want the debates and the outsider wants them [2010 being a weird case due to the huge polling changes] it would paint Miliband as the outsider and Cameron as favourite.
It's also unpleasant to see the broadcasters coming across as players of the game, rather than reporters of what goes on.
Yes, the tweets are silly.The papers will report Cameron is frit -- unless the prats advising Miliband to eat more bacon sandwiches decide to make an issue of it, when the Tory press will rally round the blue team.
At first I thought it was just tactics from Cameron to seek a slight advantage Now according to Ashdowne-as honest a broker as you can find-refusing to face Miliband is because he's frit and he's going to do all he can to make sure that Miliband faces an empty chair. In other words an hour long PPB for Labour. I wonder if Miliband really is much quicker on his feet as has been said?
At first I thought it was just tactics from Cameron to seek a slight advantage Now according to Ashdowne-as honest a broker as you can find-refusing to face Miliband is because he's frit and he's going to do all he can to make sure that Miliband faces an empty chair. In other words an hour long PPB for Labour. I wonder if Miliband really is much quicker on his feet as has been said?
Beyond the debates what else do we envisage? Half hour interviews with Paxman? Question Time style programmes where the audience puts questions to the leaders individually. These things used to be quite common. The ITV programme with Jonathan Dimbleby did it and QT itself did it occasionally, including in the 2005 election campaign.
Labour look and sound like they think they are going to lose. And I don't really know why.
The only thing that makes logical sense is if the major parties have blown significant chunks of their warchests on far more comprehensive and detailed polling that the sort of stuff we usually see here. What would happen if there was a secret 500 voters in every constituency poll sitting on Lynton Crosby's desk, plus of course what they get from canvass returns, which we don't see.
I know exactly one labour member on hornsey and wood green. She thinks it'll be a labour gain, but that it'll be close. That sounds like a sensible prediction to me.
How about "I'll debate with anyone who uses the appropriate dependent preposition"? Morally justifiable, and almost inconceivable that he'll be taken up on it.
Mr. Mark, there's a danger of Miliband over-egging the cake. It could come across as desperate pleading, and given that the favourite tends to not want the debates and the outsider wants them [2010 being a weird case due to the huge polling changes] it would paint Miliband as the outsider and Cameron as favourite.
It's also unpleasant to see the broadcasters coming across as players of the game, rather than reporters of what goes on.
2010 was weird because the whole Labour campaign was based on them not being in power but instead on them being insurgents against the deeply entrenched Tory favourites. In that instance, you effectively had two outsiders, both happy to have the debates.
Labour look and sound like they think they are going to lose. And I don't really know why.
The only thing that makes logical sense is if the major parties have blown significant chunks of their warchests on far more comprehensive and detailed polling that the sort of stuff we usually see here. What would happen if there was a secret 500 voters in every constituency poll sitting on Lynton Crosby's desk, plus of course what they get from canvass returns, which we don't see.
The budget is of course a big card left to play. Cons cut income tax and its game over IMHO.
Like antifrank, I believe the debates should happen, they're good for our democracy, and Cameron is a cowardly varlet etc etc. However the Tory leader has played the politics well (by his standards) and will avoid any blame if the debates fail to happen, which is apparently his desire.
What's interesting is that this indicates Tory confidence that they will win. If Cameron was convinced he was likely to lose he would agree to the debates as a possible gamechanger. But he doesn't want to change the game. He scents victory.
I think this is the most important aspect of this. Once again we see the Tories very confident about the outcome of the election and Labour thinking they need a game changer. I find this very perplexing given the current state of the polling, even given the improvement in the Tory position in the last week or so.
Labour look and sound like they think they are going to lose. And I don't really know why.
It is odd. All the polls point to a Labour plurality as the most likely outcome, and yet the Tories do seem more chipper and Labour have the demeanour of losers.
My guess is that the probable loss of Scotland is totally unnerving the Left.
I suspect Labour know they are going to be hammered in Scotland and a late swing to Conservative is underway elsewhere...
At first I thought it was just tactics from Cameron to seek a slight advantage Now according to Ashdowne-as honest a broker as you can find-refusing to face Miliband is because he's frit and he's going to do all he can to make sure that Miliband faces an empty chair. In other words an hour long PPB for Labour. I wonder if Miliband really is much quicker on his feet as has been said?
Do you really believe the BBC or Sky or anyone would broadcast one hour of Ed Miliband debating with himself? Or chatting with an invited audience?
An Evening With Ed Miliband.
Yeah, brilliant idea. Can't see any legal problems re political balance, and of course its bound to work to Labour's advantage, as their leader is so relaxed and charismatic on screen.
So which is it? If CCHQ believes Miliband on telly is a turn-off, they should do the head to head debate.
Labour look and sound like they think they are going to lose. And I don't really know why.
The only thing that makes logical sense is if the major parties have blown significant chunks of their warchests on far more comprehensive and detailed polling that the sort of stuff we usually see here. What would happen if there was a secret 500 voters in every constituency poll sitting on Lynton Crosby's desk, plus of course what they get from canvass returns, which we don't see.
The budget is of course a big card left to play. Cons cut income tax and its game over IMHO.
I think it will tell us what DC & GO really think.
If its full of steady statesman like changes to reduce the deficit, with a few modest tax cuts tossed to the voters and a couple of measures to spike obvious attack lines from Labour, all wrapped up in some show business then they think they are going to win.
If its a lot of razzmatazz hiding a truck load of bear traps for an incoming Labour administration, if we see "Public Sector Worker Bonds" with excessively generous terms, and other measures which will cost the earth in a year or two, but which would murder Labour if they tried to repeal them or speak out against them, then they think they are going to lose.
At first I thought it was just tactics from Cameron to seek a slight advantage Now according to Ashdowne-as honest a broker as you can find-refusing to face Miliband is because he's frit and he's going to do all he can to make sure that Miliband faces an empty chair. In other words an hour long PPB for Labour. I wonder if Miliband really is much quicker on his feet as has been said?
Do you really believe the BBC or Sky or anyone would broadcast one hour of Ed Miliband debating with himself? Or chatting with an invited audience?
An Evening With Ed Miliband.
Yeah, brilliant idea. Can't see any legal problems re political balance, and of course its bound to work to Labour's advantage, as their leader is so relaxed and charismatic on screen.
We had a Evening with Gordon Brown last time....albeit not during GE campaign itself, but I seemed to remember it was in the build up to it, as an attempt for the public to get to see the human side of Gordo.
Cameron being empty-chaired in the head-to-head seems very unlikely (though it would be great).
What is not completely impossible (though probably still not likely) is Cameron being empty-chaired in the second 7-way. Also they could change the last debate to have Miliband and somebody else.
"I think the debates should be predominantly about people who could become Prime Minister.
At the last election the debates really happened because i really said whatever it takes, ill sign up for anything lets go for it, you need that kind of attitude to get them moving"
Coup FOR Cameron! I think you have it the wrong way round. Not since General Custer at Little Bighorn has a leader been so roundly trounced. What vain idiocy!
I know exactly one labour member on hornsey and wood green. She thinks it'll be a labour gain, but that it'll be close. That sounds like a sensible prediction to me.
That's what I think too, hence 12/5 on her holding on looks value.
Shapps on Daily Politics spinning, lying and showing a contempt for the public
Basically doing what politicians do and have done since the beginning of time, then?
Well, maybe but that's why people dislike politicians so much.. it is an outrage, and how people on here defend it, and only when its their side, is beyond me.
Politics shouldnt be a byword for deceit and a lust for power
Cameron being empty-chaired in the head-to-head seems very unlikely (though it would be great).
What is not completely impossible (though probably still not likely) is Cameron being empty-chaired in the second 7-way. Also they could change the last debate to have Miliband and somebody else.
The Tories would love that to happen. It creates a narrative along the lines of "watch the kids playing at being politicians while the PM gets on with the REAL job". Essentially it would diminish the perception of Miliband as the alternative PM, whereas a head-to-head with Cameron would enhance it.
Labour look and sound like they think they are going to lose. And I don't really know why.
The only thing that makes logical sense is if the major parties have blown significant chunks of their warchests on far more comprehensive and detailed polling that the sort of stuff we usually see here. What would happen if there was a secret 500 voters in every constituency poll sitting on Lynton Crosby's desk, plus of course what they get from canvass returns, which we don't see.
The budget is of course a big card left to play. Cons cut income tax and its game over IMHO.
The Budget is a fascinating wild card.
There is currently little money to play with for a give-away. A bit off booze is likely. But going after the impecunious alcoholic vote is not an election winning strategy.
I do think IHT is a likely political football. I can see it being ramped up to a million pound threshold before it gets paid, maybe with a higher rate tranche - "we are the party that makes sure millionaires pay their way" being a general Budget theme to neutralise a major Labour attack.
Cameron being empty-chaired in the head-to-head seems very unlikely (though it would be great).
What is not completely impossible (though probably still not likely) is Cameron being empty-chaired in the second 7-way. Also they could change the last debate to have Miliband and somebody else.
The Tories would love that to happen. It creates a narrative along the lines of "watch the kids playing at being politicians while the PM gets on with the REAL job". Essentially it would diminish the perception of Miliband as the alternative PM, whereas a head-to-head with Cameron would enhance it.
If you say so. I think the simpler narriative of "Cameron is a coward" might win out.
I do wonder what Cameron pays Craig Oliver for, he seems incredibly c##p. As soon as he sent that letter to the tv companies, he must have seen what was coming, but no spin against the "coward" claims. Bad Al would have never let it get to this stage, while still ensuring no debates happened.
Coup FOR Cameron! I think you have it the wrong way round. Not since General Custer at Little Bighorn has a leader been so roundly trounced. What vain idiocy!
I do wonder what Cameron pays Craig Oliver for, he seems incredibly c##p. As soon as he sent that letter to the tv companies, he must have seen what was coming, but no spin against the "coward" claims. Bad Al would have never let it get to this stage, while still ensuring no debates happened.
Bad Al probably isn't helping Labour much by being so prominent on Twitter tbh.
At first I thought it was just tactics from Cameron to seek a slight advantage Now according to Ashdowne-as honest a broker as you can find-refusing to face Miliband is because he's frit and he's going to do all he can to make sure that Miliband faces an empty chair. In other words an hour long PPB for Labour. I wonder if Miliband really is much quicker on his feet as has been said?
Do you really believe the BBC or Sky or anyone would broadcast one hour of Ed Miliband debating with himself? Or chatting with an invited audience?
An Evening With Ed Miliband.
Yeah, brilliant idea. Can't see any legal problems re political balance, and of course its bound to work to Labour's advantage, as their leader is so relaxed and charismatic on screen.
No legal problems at all. As long as Cameron has been invited and given every opportunity to accept then if he chooses not to that is his problem not the broadcaster's
At first I thought it was just tactics from Cameron to seek a slight advantage Now according to Ashdowne-as honest a broker as you can find-refusing to face Miliband is because he's frit and he's going to do all he can to make sure that Miliband faces an empty chair. In other words an hour long PPB for Labour. I wonder if Miliband really is much quicker on his feet as has been said?
Do you really believe the BBC or Sky or anyone would broadcast one hour of Ed Miliband debating with himself? Or chatting with an invited audience?
An Evening With Ed Miliband.
Yeah, brilliant idea. Can't see any legal problems re political balance, and of course its bound to work to Labour's advantage, as their leader is so relaxed and charismatic on screen.
So which is it? If CCHQ believes Miliband on telly is a turn-off, they should do the head to head debate.
Duh.
Miliband on his own is a turn-off, but against Cameron it becomes a contest where Miliband is the underdog, and can only outperform the incredibly low expectations.
This is why the Tories don't want the mano a mano debates, just a seven way circus where everyone looks absurd and nothing gets debated, and there's no chance of an Edgasm.
I disagree with the ethics and Cameron is a slimy chancer, of course, but Tory thinking is wholly sensible, in terms of pure politics.
Up to a point. CCHQ's thinking was probably along the lines you suggest, but were trying to provoke Miliband into nixing the debates: hence Cameron's call to include the Greens.
But CCHQ were wrong on both counts: first, a debate would rub home their man's advantage; and second, now Cameron is seen as running scared.
Ironically, as @MD points out, Labour may also be screwing up their response.
At first I thought it was just tactics from Cameron to seek a slight advantage Now according to Ashdowne-as honest a broker as you can find-refusing to face Miliband is because he's frit and he's going to do all he can to make sure that Miliband faces an empty chair. In other words an hour long PPB for Labour. I wonder if Miliband really is much quicker on his feet as has been said?
Do you really believe the BBC or Sky or anyone would broadcast one hour of Ed Miliband debating with himself? Or chatting with an invited audience?
An Evening With Ed Miliband.
Yeah, brilliant idea. Can't see any legal problems re political balance, and of course its bound to work to Labour's advantage, as their leader is so relaxed and charismatic on screen.
So which is it? If CCHQ believes Miliband on telly is a turn-off, they should do the head to head debate.
Duh.
Miliband on his own is a turn-off, but against Cameron it becomes a contest where Miliband is the underdog, and can only outperform the incredibly low expectations.
This is why the Tories don't want the mano a mano debates, just a seven way circus where everyone looks absurd and nothing gets debated, and there's no chance of an Edgasm.
I disagree with the ethics and Cameron is a slimy chancer, of course, but Tory thinking is wholly sensible, in terms of pure politics.
I do wonder what Cameron pays Craig Oliver for, he seems incredibly c##p. As soon as he sent that letter to the tv companies, he must have seen what was coming, but no spin against the "coward" claims. Bad Al would have never let it get to this stage, while still ensuring no debates happened.
Bad Al probably isn't helping Labour much by being so prominent on Twitter tbh.
Well yes he is now damaged goods. I think he still sees himself as the glory days, this untouchable spin doctor who always has clean hands, partly because some of his pals in the media can't help him enough to plug whatever his latest venture.
Piers Morgan is another who doesn't appear to have any self awareness...not least writing an article about the security of personal emails of Clinton on the day Mirror was revealed to make the NOTW look like boy scouts when it comes to industrial scale blagging and hacking.
Tim Farron @timfarron 2 hrs2 hours ago If Cameron won't step up and debate with Miliband - @nick_clegg will. Right, so broadcasters, let's make this happen.
Clegg would probably win in a debate with Miliband, and that's something Labour really want to avoid - the Lib Dem poll ratings can only go one way with this sort of "event"
Labour look and sound like they think they are going to lose. And I don't really know why.
The only thing that makes logical sense is if the major parties have blown significant chunks of their warchests on far more comprehensive and detailed polling that the sort of stuff we usually see here. What would happen if there was a secret 500 voters in every constituency poll sitting on Lynton Crosby's desk, plus of course what they get from canvass returns, which we don't see.
The budget is of course a big card left to play. Cons cut income tax and its game over IMHO.
The Budget is a fascinating wild card.
There is currently little money to play with for a give-away. A bit off booze is likely. But going after the impecunious alcoholic vote is not an election winning strategy.
I do think IHT is a likely political football. I can see it being ramped up to a million pound threshold before it gets paid, maybe with a higher rate tranche - "we are the party that makes sure millionaires pay their way" being a general Budget theme to neutralise a major Labour attack.
Dissolution is only 12 days after the budget so presumably there isn't time for a new Finance Act to make it through parliament. Last year it was presented on 19th March and received Royal Assent on 17th July.
That being the case, aside from grandstanding, the only bits that matter will be those things that ministers can change using order in council or delegated legislation, which mostly will be rates of this and that, not new policies or systems.
Cameron being empty-chaired in the head-to-head seems very unlikely (though it would be great).
What is not completely impossible (though probably still not likely) is Cameron being empty-chaired in the second 7-way. Also they could change the last debate to have Miliband and somebody else.
The Tories would love that to happen. It creates a narrative along the lines of "watch the kids playing at being politicians while the PM gets on with the REAL job". Essentially it would diminish the perception of Miliband as the alternative PM, whereas a head-to-head with Cameron would enhance it.
If you say so. I think the simpler narriative of "Cameron is a coward" might win out.
Problem is that politicians generally come across as quite weird. The Tory narrative, which they have the money to continually reinforce if they can maintain the campaign within their favoured channels of bought publicity, is that Dave is normal and Ed is weird.
If you put Ed on TV on his own, he seems a bit weird, cos he's a politician. Viewers think "f--- me, all those adverts are right, what a weirdo!". If you put Ed and Dave on TV together they both seem a bit weird, but not particularly different to one another. One's a bit more of a push bully, one's a bit more of a posh stammery playground victim. Viewers think "there isn't much to choose between them." Tory bought advantage over.
It's better be described as a coward because that's a fairly abstract description, rather than the kind of visual memory of a TV debate that normal people (rather than westminster villagers) retain.
Tim Farron @timfarron 2 hrs2 hours ago If Cameron won't step up and debate with Miliband - @nick_clegg will. Right, so broadcasters, let's make this happen.
Clegg would probably win in a debate with Miliband, and that's something Labour really want to avoid - the Lib Dem poll ratings can only go one way with this sort of "event"
Clegg has said he'd be perfectly happy to defend the government's record if Cameron won't which rather suggests he doesn't understand why the Lib Dem poll rating is where it is.
Cameron may be Prime Minister, but his absence from the debates shows that he is no leader.
I think sums up Cameron rather well....I can never imagine him doing a Churchill...unfortunately, it seems we are lacking leaders across the political spectrum at the moment.
Cameron being empty-chaired in the head-to-head seems very unlikely (though it would be great).
What is not completely impossible (though probably still not likely) is Cameron being empty-chaired in the second 7-way. Also they could change the last debate to have Miliband and somebody else.
The Tories would love that to happen. It creates a narrative along the lines of "watch the kids playing at being politicians while the PM gets on with the REAL job". Essentially it would diminish the perception of Miliband as the alternative PM, whereas a head-to-head with Cameron would enhance it.
If you say so. I think the simpler narriative of "Cameron is a coward" might win out.
Brave chicken Dave he ran away , ran away Facing TV debates he turned and bravely fled , bravely fled etc etc
#tvdebates; Grant Shapps and Cameron all trending on twitter...
I recently discovered that the "trending" thing you see on Twitter is mostly connected to the individual and their interests... A bit liken Google AdSense ad's are targeted to the individual...
Cameron may be Prime Minister, but his absence from the debates shows that he is no leader.
Why does Miliband not want a 'Magnificent Seven' debate? I gather that Mr Bean, Gordon Brittas and Alan Partridge have been 'prepping' Natalie Bennett by playing the parts of Miliband, Clegg and Farage. George Clooney flies in next week to help her with Cameron because Russell Crowe is too busy.
#tvdebates; Grant Shapps and Cameron all trending on twitter...
I recently discovered that the "trending" thing you see on Twitter is mostly connected to the individual and their interests... A bit liken Google AdSense ad's are targeted to the individual...
#tvdebates; Grant Shapps and Cameron all trending on twitter...
I recently discovered that the "trending" thing you see on Twitter is mostly connected to the individual and their interests... A bit liken Google AdSense ad's are targeted to the individual...
#tvdebates; Grant Shapps and Cameron all trending on twitter...
I recently discovered that the "trending" thing you see on Twitter is mostly connected to the individual and their interests... A bit liken Google AdSense ad's are targeted to the individual...
FWIW - Just seen tweets from the north-west politics shindig - Paul Nuttall (UKIP) has just said that Heywood is UKIP's 11th most fertile seat in the region, with Knowlesey top.
#tvdebates; Grant Shapps and Cameron all trending on twitter...
I recently discovered that the "trending" thing you see on Twitter is mostly connected to the individual and their interests... A bit liken Google AdSense ad's are targeted to the individual...
Cameron is a politician and will only do what benefits his party. He can't see an advantage and therefore will refuse. Ed has nothing to lose, so he's in favour.
Had Ed been 10% ahead in the polls, all the comments would have been exactly reversed. Playground insults on a level with ... "Your granny smells of pee."
No point telling them all to grow up, they've been stunted at the age of seven.
But very brave of Cleggy, considering Farage kicked his arse on the one-to-one.
Tim Farron @timfarron 2 hrs2 hours ago If Cameron won't step up and debate with Miliband - @nick_clegg will. Right, so broadcasters, let's make this happen.
Clegg would probably win in a debate with Miliband, and that's something Labour really want to avoid - the Lib Dem poll ratings can only go one way with this sort of "event"
Clegg has said he'd be perfectly happy to defend the government's record if Cameron won't which rather suggests he doesn't understand why the Lib Dem poll rating is where it is.
45 minutes of continually repeating all the left friendly policies he ensured the government implemented (personal allowance £10,000).... is not going to do Clegg any harm.... In fact it would be Ed's worst nightmare.....
Cameron being empty-chaired in the head-to-head seems very unlikely (though it would be great).
What is not completely impossible (though probably still not likely) is Cameron being empty-chaired in the second 7-way. Also they could change the last debate to have Miliband and somebody else.
The Tories would love that to happen. It creates a narrative along the lines of "watch the kids playing at being politicians while the PM gets on with the REAL job". Essentially it would diminish the perception of Miliband as the alternative PM, whereas a head-to-head with Cameron would enhance it.
Even by the very low standards of PB Tory mouthpieces your feeble analysis is particularly woeful
So an opposition leader during an ELECTION campaign wanting to debate the issues is "playing a being a politician" while the PM gets on with the" real job"
But surely the PMs "job" in April as he will actually have called the election asking to be allowed to continue is to explain why he deserves this and try and counter his opponents arguments to the contrary
Isnt that called democracy? and being a LEADER?
Two things Dave knows nowt about as we say in Yorkshire
Cameron may be Prime Minister, but his absence from the debates shows that he is no leader.
He's not a leader, he's a manager, big difference.
A leader stands at the front and says "Come on lads, follow me!" A manager stands at the back and says "Off you go lads, they're over there!"
Cameron style is far better suited to the 97-07 period, where steady management was required, rather than the hyper-active Blair trying to micromanage and tinker with absolutely everything.
Outside of the self important TV companies, or politics junkies, the TV debates not happening is completely irrelevant. Most people don't care less about politicians and even less remember things that happened 5 years ago on TV.
On the politics of it, why would Cameron do anything to help Miliband? He's the PM, he's rated on a completely different scale to Miliband & Miliband needs a platform to try and look like a leader.
Quite:
Miliband - 'I want to talk about TV debates!'
Cameron - 'I want to talk about the economy - why doesn't he?'
#tvdebates; Grant Shapps and Cameron all trending on twitter...
I recently discovered that the "trending" thing you see on Twitter is mostly connected to the individual and their interests... A bit liken Google AdSense ad's are targeted to the individual...
I have EXACTLY the same so I'd suggest trending topics aren't tailored: they really are the trending topics (for the city/region/country you have selected).
Tailoring your twitter trends (Which you can do) won't give an accurate indication of the centre-left thoughts.
Cameron getting slaughtered in the Daily Mail comments which I gauge as a sort of centre-right indicator.
This is a bit offtopic, but if anyone feels like supporting working class British photographic talent, maybe put a few quid to support this crowdfunding project.
You get a signed copy of the book out of it, and the photographer is a genius, so the book could be worth more than you pay in the end.
He also happens to be a friend of mine and I know that, despite being a World Press Award winner, and Getty photographer, he recently had to apply for a job at Tesco. He has a daughter to feed.
Photography, like journalism and politics, is becoming a pleasant profession reserved for posh people with trust funds. It's a horrible evolution.
Even more OT, his video shows there is a market for bookshelves that will take more than three books without bowing. Any furniture entrepreneurs out there?
Photographers face two problems: first, a lot of people and some picture editors can't immediately tell a good photo from bad; second, that anyone with a phone can take thousands of pictures and chance on one as good as a professional would have got first time. Monkeys, typewriters, Shakespeare.
Farage would have a good chance of winning the seven person debate, he has a clear run as the only right wing leader, he has the highest percentage of support from his own party and he'd appeal to both Labour and Tory voters.
Farage would have a good chance of winning the seven person debate, he has a clear run as the only right wing leader, he has the highest percentage of support from his own party and he'd appeal to both Labour and Tory voters.
Most likely, I think the Lib Dems would do OK from them too actually.
My understanding is that the Finance Bill will be published on 23 March. Debated on 25 March and enacted on 26 March. A Finance Act is required in March in order to collect Income Tax after 6 April.
NIC legislation is not in the Finance Act, so any NIC changes would be a separate process.
Cameron may be Prime Minister, but his absence from the debates shows that he is no leader.
I think sums up Cameron rather well....I can never imagine him doing a Churchill...unfortunately, it seems we are lacking leaders across the political spectrum at the moment.
What do we need a 'leader' for anyway? Speaking personally, I'm perfectly capable of making my own way without needing a figurehead to follow, like a gormless and weak sheep.
Pols should stick to managing, and otherwise butt out of everyone else's lives.
Comments
Keep green on Labour votes, Tory seats if possible would be my advice here. (Or at least make sure you don't have TOO big a hole)
Also a disconnect between Tory most seats and Dave remaining PM. Scottish Labour may be dieing but Dave may not have enough friends to get past 323 in the parliament.
Why did they let him go....and why did they replace him with a weasel
I need Labour to have an awful night in Scotland and a good one in London so this poll looks good to me.
Three debates on three different topics
Green voters are the most tactical of the lot, I think they'll attain a decent 2nd place in Sheffield Central seeing as there is no danger of letting the Lib Dems in there.
Hopefully they'll all vote green in Norwich South and Bristol West though
http://www1.skysports.com/f1/news/12433/9744899/giedo-van-der-garde-starts-legal-action-against-sauber-ahead-of-australian-gp
Coup FOR Cameron! I think you have it the wrong way round. Not since General Custer at Little Bighorn has a leader been so roundly trounced. What vain idiocy!
Should be a fun election night.
To be fair, it is one of his lesser works...
"Source note: Seat-by-seat analysis based on YouGov findings, adjusted for Ashcroft polls and unique local factors using UK-Elect."
On the politics of it, why would Cameron do anything to help Miliband? He's the PM, he's rated on a completely different scale to Miliband & Miliband needs a platform to try and look like a leader.
It's also unpleasant to see the broadcasters coming across as players of the game, rather than reporters of what goes on.
Labour look and sound like they think they are going to lose. And I don't really know why.
Live long and prosper - great advice for the better off.
Die young stay pretty - better advice for everyone else.
(Sean I'm sure you're a LLAP'er)
Everything that is bad about politics... he should just say "We can only lose by agreeing to the debates, its not in our interest."
So dishonest, but those who like old politics think its clever
'Now according to Ashdowne-as honest a broker as you can find'
It's the way you tell em,pure comedy gold.
If its full of steady statesman like changes to reduce the deficit, with a few modest tax cuts tossed to the voters and a couple of measures to spike obvious attack lines from Labour, all wrapped up in some show business then they think they are going to win.
If its a lot of razzmatazz hiding a truck load of bear traps for an incoming Labour administration, if we see "Public Sector Worker Bonds" with excessively generous terms, and other measures which will cost the earth in a year or two, but which would murder Labour if they tried to repeal them or speak out against them, then they think they are going to lose.
What is not completely impossible (though probably still not likely) is Cameron being empty-chaired in the second 7-way. Also they could change the last debate to have Miliband and somebody else.
At the last election the debates really happened because i really said whatever it takes, ill sign up for anything lets go for it, you need that kind of attitude to get them moving"
"And you'll take that attitude again?"
"Yes"
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1IjLPrzLeWA
Ah but the Americans won the Sioux War
Ed Miliband = Sitting Bull
Gordon Brown = Crazy Horse
Politics shouldnt be a byword for deceit and a lust for power
There is currently little money to play with for a give-away. A bit off booze is likely. But going after the impecunious alcoholic vote is not an election winning strategy.
I do think IHT is a likely political football. I can see it being ramped up to a million pound threshold before it gets paid, maybe with a higher rate tranche - "we are the party that makes sure millionaires pay their way" being a general Budget theme to neutralise a major Labour attack.
I reckon if that is the result, Lib Dems abstain and it's a Mili minority.
If the Tories can get to 290 then odds are they're probably staying in though.
Con + Lib Dem coming to 310 is a real electoral no man's land.
But CCHQ were wrong on both counts: first, a debate would rub home their man's advantage; and second, now Cameron is seen as running scared.
Ironically, as @MD points out, Labour may also be screwing up their response.
Piers Morgan is another who doesn't appear to have any self awareness...not least writing an article about the security of personal emails of Clinton on the day Mirror was revealed to make the NOTW look like boy scouts when it comes to industrial scale blagging and hacking.
Tim Farron @timfarron 2 hrs2 hours ago
If Cameron won't step up and debate with Miliband - @nick_clegg will. Right, so broadcasters, let's make this happen.
Clegg would probably win in a debate with Miliband, and that's something Labour really want to avoid - the Lib Dem poll ratings can only go one way with this sort of "event"
That being the case, aside from grandstanding, the only bits that matter will be those things that ministers can change using order in council or delegated legislation, which mostly will be rates of this and that, not new policies or systems.
If you put Ed on TV on his own, he seems a bit weird, cos he's a politician. Viewers think "f--- me, all those adverts are right, what a weirdo!". If you put Ed and Dave on TV together they both seem a bit weird, but not particularly different to one another. One's a bit more of a push bully, one's a bit more of a posh stammery playground victim. Viewers think "there isn't much to choose between them." Tory bought advantage over.
It's better be described as a coward because that's a fairly abstract description, rather than the kind of visual memory of a TV debate that normal people (rather than westminster villagers) retain.
Sturgeon > Farage > Clegg > Cameron > Miliband > Bennett (No idea about Wood)
Relative to expectation it'd be
Clegg > Miliband > Sturgeon > Farage > Bennett > Cameron something like that.
Great for those with mortgages, not so good for home owners with savings?
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-31747859
Facing TV debates he turned and bravely fled , bravely fled
etc etc
Monty Python
#tvdebates
#IndiasDaughter
#ThanksZane
#WorstBossIn5Words
Cisse
Cameron
Grant Shapps
Evans
Winston Reid
I've got right now
What do you have
#IndiasDaughter
#WorstBossIn5Words
#tvdebates
#Empire
#FergusonReport
Evans
Nirbhaya
We Produce
All Day
A leader stands at the front and says "Come on lads, follow me!"
A manager stands at the back and says "Off you go lads, they're over there!"
Cameron is a politician and will only do what benefits his party. He can't see an advantage and therefore will refuse. Ed has nothing to lose, so he's in favour.
Had Ed been 10% ahead in the polls, all the comments would have been exactly reversed. Playground insults on a level with ... "Your granny smells of pee."
No point telling them all to grow up, they've been stunted at the age of seven.
But very brave of Cleggy, considering Farage kicked his arse on the one-to-one.
feeble analysis is particularly woeful
So an opposition leader during an ELECTION campaign wanting to
debate the issues is "playing a being a politician" while the PM gets
on with the" real job"
But surely the PMs "job" in April as he will actually have called the election asking to
be allowed to continue is to explain why he deserves this and
try and counter his opponents arguments to the contrary
Isnt that called democracy? and being a LEADER?
Two things Dave knows nowt about as we say in Yorkshire
Miliband - 'I want to talk about TV debates!'
Cameron - 'I want to talk about the economy - why doesn't he?'
Cameron getting slaughtered in the Daily Mail comments which I gauge as a sort of centre-right indicator.
Photographers face two problems: first, a lot of people and some picture editors can't immediately tell a good photo from bad; second, that anyone with a phone can take thousands of pictures and chance on one as good as a professional would have got first time. Monkeys, typewriters, Shakespeare.
NIC legislation is not in the Finance Act, so any NIC changes would be a separate process.
Pols should stick to managing, and otherwise butt out of everyone else's lives.