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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Tonight one poll has a 1% LAB lead – the other has them lev

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    GeoffMGeoffM Posts: 6,071

    Ishmael_X said:

    Dair said:


    Any citizen should be allowed their property with equal protection of the law.

    By all means advocate abolition of the political aspects of the monarchy, but state confiscation of private property is a different matter.

    Elizabeth Saxe-Coburg-Goethe is not a citizen of this country and were the monarchy abolished would be a Stateless Person if no specific provision was made.

    In any case, any "private" transactions were undertaken with effectively public funds and as such the benefits of such transactions should transfer back to the state as a public good.
    Saxe-Coburg-Goethe = biggest LOL of the year. I thought you were giving it large the other night about how well educated you Scottish chappies are?
    We haven't had such an entertaining Nat since 'Comical James' defenestrated himself - goodness knows what the demands will be if the SNP do get 46 seats.....I reckon 'free Unicorns' will be back on the table......
    Do you think that will be an Owl Upgrade or will we get both?
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    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,302
    Need a big last over here to really put the pressure on Sri Lanka.
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    GeoffMGeoffM Posts: 6,071

    Need a big last over here to really put the pressure on Sri Lanka.

    What a bizarre final over with two bowlers!
    Are you staying up for the SL innings, FU?
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    GeoffM said:

    Need a big last over here to really put the pressure on Sri Lanka.

    What a bizarre final over with two bowlers!
    Are you staying up for the SL innings, FU?
    The last 2 overs/8 balls featured four different bowlers.
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    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,302
    GeoffM said:

    Need a big last over here to really put the pressure on Sri Lanka.

    What a bizarre final over with two bowlers!
    Are you staying up for the SL innings, FU?
    Most likely. Have UFC + Cricket on the go at the mo, while sorting out some work related stuff.
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    CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,844
    GeoffM said:

    Ishmael_X said:

    Dair said:


    Any citizen should be allowed their property with equal protection of the law.

    By all means advocate abolition of the political aspects of the monarchy, but state confiscation of private property is a different matter.

    Elizabeth Saxe-Coburg-Goethe is not a citizen of this country and were the monarchy abolished would be a Stateless Person if no specific provision was made.

    In any case, any "private" transactions were undertaken with effectively public funds and as such the benefits of such transactions should transfer back to the state as a public good.
    Saxe-Coburg-Goethe = biggest LOL of the year. I thought you were giving it large the other night about how well educated you Scottish chappies are?
    We haven't had such an entertaining Nat since 'Comical James' defenestrated himself - goodness knows what the demands will be if the SNP do get 46 seats.....I reckon 'free Unicorns' will be back on the table......
    Do you think that will be an Owl Upgrade or will we get both?
    If Miliband's negotiating, how many guesses do you need?
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    GeoffMGeoffM Posts: 6,071

    GeoffM said:

    Ishmael_X said:

    Dair said:


    Any citizen should be allowed their property with equal protection of the law.

    By all means advocate abolition of the political aspects of the monarchy, but state confiscation of private property is a different matter.

    Elizabeth Saxe-Coburg-Goethe is not a citizen of this country and were the monarchy abolished would be a Stateless Person if no specific provision was made.

    In any case, any "private" transactions were undertaken with effectively public funds and as such the benefits of such transactions should transfer back to the state as a public good.
    Saxe-Coburg-Goethe = biggest LOL of the year. I thought you were giving it large the other night about how well educated you Scottish chappies are?
    We haven't had such an entertaining Nat since 'Comical James' defenestrated himself - goodness knows what the demands will be if the SNP do get 46 seats.....I reckon 'free Unicorns' will be back on the table......
    Do you think that will be an Owl Upgrade or will we get both?
    If Miliband's negotiating, how many guesses do you need?
    I only need one guess as to who will pay for it!
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    CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,844
    The Opinium approval ratings make grim reading for Miliband, not only has he the lowest approval among his own VI (+40 vs Cameron +87) its also poor geographically:

    Net approval:
    England:
    Cameron: +1
    Miliband: -23

    Scotland:
    Cameron: -23
    Miliband: -36

    http://ourinsight.opinium.co.uk/sites/ourinsight.opinium.co.uk/files/vi_24_02_2015.pdf
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    MTimTMTimT Posts: 7,034
    HYUFD said:

    TimT Interesting, and Rand Paul still won of course and is looking good for the Iowa caucuses. I also see no reason why Cruz should not run having taken third. Walker is flavour of the month at the moment, as many other dull midwestern governors were in 2012, Thune, Daniels etc but I cannot see him winning, Fiorina failed to win the California Senate race

    Cruz only got 12% in a group that is essentially Conservatives and Libertarians (the latter explaining why Rand wins year in year out and then goes on to do nothing elsewhere). Walker nearly doubled his score.

    Fiorina not winning in California is hardly a shock, but I grant she did not beat the spread either. But she is impressing some this time around. Having a nominee on the top of the ticket from a purple/blue state with union-bashing, budget-balancing conservative chops with a female, businesswoman running mate from a deep blue state will be a good base-extending ticket among swing voters and independents, while also getting out the base (because of Walker's very conservative cred).
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    CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,844
    Despite the Voting intention figures, Opinium still has 'Con largest' ahead:

    Con maj: 15
    Hung Con largest: 34 > Con largest: 49
    Hung Lab largest: 23 > Lab largest: 33
    Lab Maj: 10
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    CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,844
    And 'forced choice, Cameron or Miliband - 56:44 to Cameron (including 16% of Lab voters who would rather see Cameron than Miliband....)

    Only the Scots would rather see Miliband - Cameron lead:
    England: +16
    Scotland: -16
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    coolagornacoolagorna Posts: 127

    The Opinium approval ratings make grim reading for Miliband, not only has he the lowest approval among his own VI (+40 vs Cameron +87) its also poor geographically:

    Net approval:
    England:
    Cameron: +1
    Miliband: -23

    Scotland:
    Cameron: -23
    Miliband: -36

    http://ourinsight.opinium.co.uk/sites/ourinsight.opinium.co.uk/files/vi_24_02_2015.pdf

    LOL..Pity there isnt an Olympic event of "Straw Clutching"...you
    would be favourite fot a Gold

    The only polls that matter are the regular who will you vote for
    polls..not who do you trust on the economy, who would you go
    for a pint with or who eats a bacon sandwich most elegantly

    Major led Blair on who do you trust on the economy days before
    doomsday 97 and Callaghan led Thatcher by miles on who do
    you like in 79....these type of polls are irrelevant
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    IndigoIndigo Posts: 9,966

    The Opinium approval ratings make grim reading for Miliband, not only has he the lowest approval among his own VI (+40 vs Cameron +87) its also poor geographically:

    Net approval:
    England:
    Cameron: +1
    Miliband: -23

    Scotland:
    Cameron: -23
    Miliband: -36

    http://ourinsight.opinium.co.uk/sites/ourinsight.opinium.co.uk/files/vi_24_02_2015.pdf

    LOL..Pity there isnt an Olympic event of "Straw Clutching"...you
    would be favourite fot a Gold

    The only polls that matter are the regular who will you vote for
    polls..not who do you trust on the economy, who would you go
    for a pint with or who eats a bacon sandwich most elegantly

    Major led Blair on who do you trust on the economy days before
    doomsday 97 and Callaghan led Thatcher by miles on who do
    you like in 79....these type of polls are irrelevant
    Strangely enough the Lebo & Norpoth Model which appears to be superior to UNS is based almost entirely on PM approval rating and so in effect all the things you suggest above.
    http://www.stonybrook.edu/commcms/polisci/NorpothForecast.pdf
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    coolagornacoolagorna Posts: 127
    Indigo said:

    The Opinium approval ratings make grim reading for Miliband, not only has he the lowest approval among his own VI (+40 vs Cameron +87) its also poor geographically:

    Net approval:
    England:
    Cameron: +1
    Miliband: -23

    Scotland:
    Cameron: -23
    Miliband: -36

    http://ourinsight.opinium.co.uk/sites/ourinsight.opinium.co.uk/files/vi_24_02_2015.pdf

    LOL..Pity there isnt an Olympic event of "Straw Clutching"...you
    would be favourite fot a Gold

    The only polls that matter are the regular who will you vote for
    polls..not who do you trust on the economy, who would you go
    for a pint with or who eats a bacon sandwich most elegantly

    Major led Blair on who do you trust on the economy days before
    doomsday 97 and Callaghan led Thatcher by miles on who do
    you like in 79....these type of polls are irrelevant
    Strangely enough the Lebo & Norpoth Model which appears to be superior to UNS is based almost entirely on PM approval rating and so in effect all the things you suggest above.
    http://www.stonybrook.edu/commcms/polisci/NorpothForecast.pdf
    More nonsense in that than academic waffle than Lewis Carroll
    and Spike Miligan put together...

    Even if there is anything in those polls at all...thats still bad for
    the Cons in theory as five weeks of Miliband having the chance to
    change his perception to people who have only been given the
    biased Tory press version of him as a hapless geeky loser can
    only see his figures rise..whereas Flashman is a distinctly unimpressive
    figure in debate (he lost to Clegg in 2010) and his tendency to try
    and bully and bluster will surely see his personal stock fall

    All in all its still looking bad for the Blues...though not as bad as
    for the Yellows...Mike reckons that his beloved Libs may do much
    better than expected because of "greater name recognition" for their
    Mps ..hmmm maybe but when the name recognition here in Sheffield
    is always "that c##t Clegg" ...name recognition may not be the silver lining it appears

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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,214
    TimT Cruz is a conservative, not a libertarian. The Republicans' problem is not getting out the base
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