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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » If the boundary changes had gone through the result of GE15

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  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,514

    This is good stuff from Margate where the UKIP conference is taking place

    https://www.flickr.com/photos/taylorherringpr/sets/72157651057217811/

    I'm sure the one second from the left is Ed Balls.
  • Because they are constituents. MPs are elected to represent all their constituents, not just the ones who voted for the winning party or who voted at all or even who are registered to vote.

    Indeed so, but by definition if they are not registered voters then they have no say in the choice of MP or (ultimately) the choice of government. Therefore in deciding how big constituencies should be in order to remove any systematic bias in the constituency distribution, you of course should consider only registered voters. This is pretty basic stuff.
    It's a question-begging non sequitur which just happens to favour the blue team.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,411
    Dair said:

    Indeed. Personally I think that electoral boundaries should be based on the census (excluding the best estimate of those not entitled to vote because of foreign nationality) and not on those who actually jump through every hoop to register. The current procedure, with its implicit bias against mobile inner-city voters, is too close to the old Southern states' procedures designed to keep unwelcome voters off the rolls.

    Not a whiff of partisan self-interest in that personal belief, I'm sure!

    Quite why the presence of foreigners should give Labour-voting areas more representation per registered voter is a mystery.
    Because they are constituents. MPs are elected to represent all their constituents, not just the ones who voted for the winning party or who voted at all or even who are registered to vote.
    This conservative (small c) view of FPTP is as ridiculous and fundamentally fantastical as the magic money tree.
    Natascha's not too bad to have as a constituency MP.
  • MarkHopkinsMarkHopkins Posts: 5,584

    This is good stuff from Margate where the UKIP conference is taking place

    https://www.flickr.com/photos/taylorherringpr/sets/72157651057217811/


    Is that to raise money for those poor girls who cannot afford proper clothes?

  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    Pulpstar said:

    Clegg stated the two issues were unrelated (Boundary reform/HoL reform)

    Boundary reform was a seeming quid pro quo for the AV referendum

    The Lib Dems immediately shed about half their vote after the GE.

    It became blindlingly obvious that incumbency is & was incredibly important to the Lib Dems irrespective of national vote share.

    Clegg looked at the electoral maths and realised

    In order to save some semblance of Lib Demmery at Westminster

    The new boundaries could not come into play

    To do so... would yield a catastrophic defeat for the Lib Dems in terms of seats - worse than what they are facing at the moment, perhaps as few as 10 seats - something like that.

    HoL reform provided a convenient excuse.

    & He outplayed Dave on this one.

    I buy all the steps in your logic, but I'm not sure he "outplayed" Dave.

    He reached an agreement with Cameron. He then broke that agreement.

    Perhaps Cameron made a mistake in trusting him, but I'm not sure that is being "outplayed"
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    Is PB enjoying a collective 69 today ?

    Days until the general election of course ..... :smiley:
  • DavidL said:

    Presumably the boundaries that did not make it on the back of this do not reflect the somewhat radical effects of individual voter registration? I am guessing that once that is recognised by the Electoral Commission there will have to be yet another change of the boundaries.

    There were rumours that certain inner City seats might have lost 10,000 off the electoral roll. The electoral map in 2020 might indeed look very different.

    As the law stands, the Boundary Commissions have to review the boundaries every 5 years so a new review will start after the election unless the new Government changes the legislation.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 54,025
    Neil said:

    DavidL said:

    Neil said:

    Patrick said:

    Dair said:

    Alistair said:


    Public sector final salary pensions that are on average worth less than private sector final salary pensions? Lets talk.

    What private sector final salary pensions?
    Some remain. I have one. But rare as hen's teeth indeed.
    About 2 million or so private sector workers have one.

    Nearly all retired.
    No, people currently working in the private sector. If we added in the retired it would be many, many millions more members of such schemes.
    Do you have a link for that?

    When we closed our scheme we bought out the future rights but staff kept the rights they had already accrued. Would they count towards your 2m even although they are no longer members of a "live" FS scheme but instead a money purchase scheme?

    Even Lloyds closed its FS scheme in 2000 but they have still been cutting it. So, for example, in 2013 they changed the rules so that the pensionable pay for those with accrued rights was frozen going forward. Would they still count too?

    On present figures there are about 25m people working in the private sector. So 2m is less than 10% of them and I still suspect that number is based on historic rights rather than current entitlements.
  • DairDair Posts: 6,108
    Neil said:

    Patrick said:

    Dair said:

    Alistair said:


    Public sector final salary pensions that are on average worth less than private sector final salary pensions? Lets talk.

    What private sector final salary pensions?
    Some remain. I have one. But rare as hen's teeth indeed.
    About 2 million or so private sector workers have one.

    And almost all of those 2 million are in schemes which are closed to new entrants. For example there was some coverage of Tesco potentially closing their Final Salary Scheme recently.

    It was closed to New Entrants in 2001.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    Orielite said:

    Cameron and Clegg did legislate for both the referendum and the boundary changes (true they were separate Acts). The vote in October 2013 to actually change the boundaries would have been on a Statutory Instrument to implement the Boundary Commission's report. It's always been done like that, and it would have been impractical and breaking convention to put the boundaries themselves into an Act.

    Clegg's justification to refuse to vote through the Order was that a House of Commons with fewer members (which was tied to the boundary changes) and an unreformed Lords would further enhance the power of the executive. Whatever you think of the politics back then, this is a perfectly reasonably point. (And no, I'm not a Lib Dem, I'm an historian, let's be accurate)

    I'm new here, please be nice.

    Indigo said:

    No.

    If they had got Lords Reform in all its glorious stupidity, the LDs would have found some other reason to ditch Boundary Reform because they viewed it as an existential issue that would reduce their already plummeting seat total.

    The whole thing was an textbook example of their double dealing, the agreement in the Coalition Agreement was holding a AV referendum and boundary reform. Cameron was stupid enough to give them the referendum without tying both together in one bill, and allowed them to renege on the agreement because they lost (they may have done so even if they won, nothing was stopping them) and go shopping for something else.

    Welcome.

    We'll be nice.

    For the first hour...
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,708
    edited February 2015
    Vaguely related, do we reckon Labour would give a national ID card type of system another shot? I'd have been opposed previously because it gives the government too much information that they would be bound to abuse, but post-Snowden these objections feel a little bit quaint. They've gone ahead and taken all that information anyway, and much more, and most of what they're doing is secret. Sometimes you have to recognize that you've lost a battle and retreat to a more defensible position - in this case the freedom and practical ability to encrypt communications effectively, and tools to counter what the government knows about us by us knowing more about them.

    The reason I bring this up here is that in Japan, everyone is automatically on the electoral register. If you've already got a list of the people, a subset of that is a list of eligible voters. Which brings us to the same place that Nick Palmer is suggesting we go, with the added bonus that if they don't have to clear the hurdle of electoral registration, more of these marginal voters will actually vote.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,963
    edited February 2015
    @JamieRoss7

    A leaflet is being handed out saying LGBT issues being taught in schools is "a recruitment drive". #UKIPSpring

    https://pbs.twimg.com/media/B-2Rjc1UcAEXc5d.jpg
  • TheWatcherTheWatcher Posts: 5,262
    edited February 2015

    This is good stuff from Margate where the UKIP conference is taking place

    https://www.flickr.com/photos/taylorherringpr/sets/72157651057217811/

    Is that Farage standing on top of a tank, or Ed Balls?
  • @JamieRoss7: This is being handed out to delegates. #UKIPSpring

    https://pbs.twimg.com/media/B-2MRPOUUAA5DXo.jpg:large
  • NeilNeil Posts: 7,983

    @JamieRoss7

    A leaflet is being handed out saying LGBT issues being taught in schools is "a recruitment drive". #UKIPSpring

    https://pbs.twimg.com/media/B-2Rjc1UcAEXc5d.jpg

    It doesnt look like a UKIP leaflet. You cant control what crazies might turn up to your conference (I've dodged more Socialist Party / SWP types at conferences down the years than I care to remember).

  • On topic, a thread on electoral reform by Mike today and thread on AV by me next week.

    PBers are being really spoiled.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,386
    edited February 2015
    JackW said:

    Is PB enjoying a collective 69 today ?

    :open_mouth:

  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,411

    This is good stuff from Margate where the UKIP conference is taking place

    https://www.flickr.com/photos/taylorherringpr/sets/72157651057217811/

    Is that Farage standing on top of a tank, or Ed Balls?
    Aidan Burley.
  • SmarmeronSmarmeron Posts: 5,099
    @TheScreamingEagles
    Vote UKIP for insularity in a globalized world!
  • Neil said:

    @JamieRoss7

    A leaflet is being handed out saying LGBT issues being taught in schools is "a recruitment drive". #UKIPSpring

    https://pbs.twimg.com/media/B-2Rjc1UcAEXc5d.jpg

    It doesnt look like a UKIP leaflet. You cant control what crazies might turn up to your conference (I've dodged more Socialist Party / SWP types at conferences down the years than I care to remember).

    The loons from the Monday club after IDS cut off links to them were hilarious in 2002.

    They were talking about how being gay would become mandatory.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,411
    Neil said:

    @JamieRoss7

    A leaflet is being handed out saying LGBT issues being taught in schools is "a recruitment drive". #UKIPSpring

    https://pbs.twimg.com/media/B-2Rjc1UcAEXc5d.jpg

    It doesnt look like a UKIP leaflet. You cant control what crazies might turn up to your conference (I've dodged more Socialist Party / SWP types at conferences down the years than I care to remember).

    It'll be a fringe group.
  • PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    OT For anyone with access to ABC progs - Forever is brilliant. Sherlock Holmes meets Bones meets eternal life from the perspective of a Medical Examiner who is brought back to life again and again.
  • PAWPAW Posts: 1,074
    Smarmeron - tapped them out already? Deposit for your house, help with the mortgage, double glazing needed renewing, house needed painting, you needed a car of course? Really they don't need the money they saved for their old age, they don't go anywhere.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,514

    Neil said:

    @JamieRoss7

    A leaflet is being handed out saying LGBT issues being taught in schools is "a recruitment drive". #UKIPSpring

    https://pbs.twimg.com/media/B-2Rjc1UcAEXc5d.jpg

    It doesnt look like a UKIP leaflet. You cant control what crazies might turn up to your conference (I've dodged more Socialist Party / SWP types at conferences down the years than I care to remember).

    The loons from the Monday club after IDS cut off links to them were hilarious in 2002.

    They were talking about how being gay would become mandatory.
    I suspect they play" ladies tennis" down John O's way
  • The one decent thing that the yellow enablers have done in their entire five years in "power"
  • NeilNeil Posts: 7,983
    edited February 2015
    Dair said:

    Neil said:

    Patrick said:

    Dair said:

    Alistair said:


    Public sector final salary pensions that are on average worth less than private sector final salary pensions? Lets talk.

    What private sector final salary pensions?
    Some remain. I have one. But rare as hen's teeth indeed.
    About 2 million or so private sector workers have one.

    there was some coverage of Tesco potentially closing their Final Salary Scheme recently.

    It was closed to New Entrants in 2001.
    Tesco's proposals are to close its career average pension scheme which is currently still open to new entrants.

  • Neil said:

    @JamieRoss7

    A leaflet is being handed out saying LGBT issues being taught in schools is "a recruitment drive". #UKIPSpring

    https://pbs.twimg.com/media/B-2Rjc1UcAEXc5d.jpg

    It doesnt look like a UKIP leaflet. You cant control what crazies might turn up to your conference (I've dodged more Socialist Party / SWP types at conferences down the years than I care to remember).

    The loons from the Monday club after IDS cut off links to them were hilarious in 2002.

    They were talking about how being gay would become mandatory.
    I suspect they play" ladies tennis" down John O's way
    Huh?
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,708
    edited February 2015

    Is the OP right, btw? Most of the perceived pro-Labour bias is due to differential turnout rather than constituency size. Abolishing 50 seats would have meant redrawing almost every boundary which would have diminished incumbency bonuses, so would mainly have hurt Conservatives.

    I think it's still right, because differential turnout correlates with differential electoral registration, although people were probably over-stating the effect by not counting the loss of incumbency bonuses.

    BTW, one of the weird things about the current system (seat size based on electoral registration, rather than the US system based on the census) is that the best way to help your preferred party if you live in an area dominated by your opponents is to stay off the register. (Is there a procedure for electorally unregistering?)
  • TheWatcherTheWatcher Posts: 5,262

    Neil said:

    @JamieRoss7

    A leaflet is being handed out saying LGBT issues being taught in schools is "a recruitment drive". #UKIPSpring

    https://pbs.twimg.com/media/B-2Rjc1UcAEXc5d.jpg

    It doesnt look like a UKIP leaflet. You cant control what crazies might turn up to your conference (I've dodged more Socialist Party / SWP types at conferences down the years than I care to remember).

    The loons from the Monday club after IDS cut off links to them were hilarious in 2002.

    They were talking about how being gay would become mandatory.
    I suspect they play" ladies tennis" down John O's way
    Yoiks.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633

    On topic, a thread on electoral reform by Mike today and thread on AV by me next week.

    PBers are being really spoiled.

    Is Milkes thread up later ? This alternative history one is a bit dull.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    edited February 2015

    DavidL said:

    The current procedure, with its implicit bias against mobile inner-city voters, is too close to the old Southern states' procedures designed to keep unwelcome voters off the rolls.

    Ludicrous, and self-serving, Nick. You should be ashamed of yourself.

    Asking people to register, either online or by filling in a form, and prove their identity is in no way similar to the racially targeted voter education laws in the old Southern States.
  • PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    First LOL of the day!
    JackW said:

    Is PB enjoying a collective 69 today ?

    Days until the general election of course ..... :smiley:

  • NeilNeil Posts: 7,983
    edited February 2015

    Neil said:

    @JamieRoss7

    A leaflet is being handed out saying LGBT issues being taught in schools is "a recruitment drive". #UKIPSpring

    https://pbs.twimg.com/media/B-2Rjc1UcAEXc5d.jpg

    It doesnt look like a UKIP leaflet. You cant control what crazies might turn up to your conference (I've dodged more Socialist Party / SWP types at conferences down the years than I care to remember).

    The loons from the Monday club after IDS cut off links to them were hilarious in 2002.

    They were talking about how being gay would become mandatory.
    I suspect they play" ladies tennis" down John O's way
    Huh?
    You missed the latest reports from down Elmbridge way. Some senior citizens were being naughty in costumes. It is probably a result of the stress of contributing more tax to the Exchequer than the residents of any other local authority in the country.

  • DairDair Posts: 6,108

    @JamieRoss7: This is being handed out to delegates. #UKIPSpring

    https://pbs.twimg.com/media/B-2MRPOUUAA5DXo.jpg:large

    Foreign Aid is probably not a good thing. The long term harm it does to developing countries is quite considerable.
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,708
    edited February 2015
    Charles said:

    The current procedure, with its implicit bias against mobile inner-city voters, is too close to the old Southern states' procedures designed to keep unwelcome voters off the rolls.

    Ludicrous, and self-serving, Nick. You should be ashamed of yourself.

    Asking people to register, either online or by filling in a form, and prove their identity is in no way similar to the racially targeted voter education laws in the old Southern States.
    "In no way similar" is a very bold claim.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    O/T but amused me a great deal.

    Apparently HMRC is doorstepping people who have been asked to reach a settlement on the film financing. I was told by someone that they turned up with a portable credit card machine and an invoice for £150,000...
  • Plato said:

    OT For anyone with access to ABC progs - Forever is brilliant. Sherlock Holmes meets Bones meets eternal life from the perspective of a Medical Examiner who is brought back to life again and again.

    Well Mrs SSC approves - I guess it has something to do with a well tailored waist coat..!

  • Neil said:

    Neil said:

    @JamieRoss7

    A leaflet is being handed out saying LGBT issues being taught in schools is "a recruitment drive". #UKIPSpring

    https://pbs.twimg.com/media/B-2Rjc1UcAEXc5d.jpg

    It doesnt look like a UKIP leaflet. You cant control what crazies might turn up to your conference (I've dodged more Socialist Party / SWP types at conferences down the years than I care to remember).

    The loons from the Monday club after IDS cut off links to them were hilarious in 2002.

    They were talking about how being gay would become mandatory.
    I suspect they play" ladies tennis" down John O's way
    Huh?
    You missed the latest reports from down Elmbridge way. Some senior citizens were being naughty in costumes. It is probably a result of the stress of contributing more tax to the Exchequer than the residents of any other local authority in the country.

    Okay, I just googled "Elmbridge tennis"

    And it has brought up the following two news stories

    5th of February - Never too old for tennis, says Elmbridge Council

    then from Yesterday

    Complaints over elderly men in tennis skirts having Sunday sex sessions in park

    http://www.thisislocallondon.co.uk/news/11819802.Complaints_over_elderly_men_in_tennis_skirts_having_Sunday_sex_sessions_in_park/

    Poor JohnO, no wonder he keeps on avoiding Elmbridge and hot footing it to Bournemouth
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,514

    Neil said:

    @JamieRoss7

    A leaflet is being handed out saying LGBT issues being taught in schools is "a recruitment drive". #UKIPSpring

    https://pbs.twimg.com/media/B-2Rjc1UcAEXc5d.jpg

    It doesnt look like a UKIP leaflet. You cant control what crazies might turn up to your conference (I've dodged more Socialist Party / SWP types at conferences down the years than I care to remember).

    The loons from the Monday club after IDS cut off links to them were hilarious in 2002.

    They were talking about how being gay would become mandatory.
    I suspect they play" ladies tennis" down John O's way
    Huh?
    You missed JOs magnificent post from yesterday afternoon ?

  • DairDair Posts: 6,108
    Plato said:

    OT For anyone with access to ABC progs - Forever is brilliant. Sherlock Holmes meets Bones meets eternal life from the perspective of a Medical Examiner who is brought back to life again and again.

    It is very good but it's ratings have been quite woeful at times.

    It might get another season but it is by no means assured. It is a very natural fit for a high price Syndication deal (which is the only reason Elementary has survived) but it's by no means guaranteed of renewal.
  • SmarmeronSmarmeron Posts: 5,099
    @Charles
    Even better was Ozzies "extra" inspectors.
    An outsourced company, whose employees were sending random letters to people on tax credits accusing them of fraud and demanding they proved the weren't.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,514

    Neil said:

    Neil said:

    @JamieRoss7

    A leaflet is being handed out saying LGBT issues being taught in schools is "a recruitment drive". #UKIPSpring

    https://pbs.twimg.com/media/B-2Rjc1UcAEXc5d.jpg

    It doesnt look like a UKIP leaflet. You cant control what crazies might turn up to your conference (I've dodged more Socialist Party / SWP types at conferences down the years than I care to remember).

    The loons from the Monday club after IDS cut off links to them were hilarious in 2002.

    They were talking about how being gay would become mandatory.
    I suspect they play" ladies tennis" down John O's way
    Huh?
    You missed the latest reports from down Elmbridge way. Some senior citizens were being naughty in costumes. It is probably a result of the stress of contributing more tax to the Exchequer than the residents of any other local authority in the country.

    Okay, I just googled "Elmbridge tennis"

    And it has brought up the following two news stories

    5th of February - Never too old for tennis, says Elmbridge Council

    then from Yesterday

    Complaints over elderly men in tennis skirts having Sunday sex sessions in park

    http://www.thisislocallondon.co.uk/news/11819802.Complaints_over_elderly_men_in_tennis_skirts_having_Sunday_sex_sessions_in_park/

    Poor JohnO, no wonder he keeps on avoiding Elmbridge and hot footing it to Bournemouth
    Imagine my relief to find no mention of anyone wearing red shoes.
  • PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    EPIC

    The best I can offer is a demand for £32k on the doorstep - they'd decided I was both myself and my maiden name self - and then multiplied the first number they thought of by their shoe size.

    Since I was paid entirely by PAYE and my employer was BT plc - it seemed highly unlikely that I owed them any money as either identity. We finally agreed I owed them £183 - frankly I was happy to pay them to go away.
    Charles said:

    O/T but amused me a great deal.

    Apparently HMRC is doorstepping people who have been asked to reach a settlement on the film financing. I was told by someone that they turned up with a portable credit card machine and an invoice for £150,000...

  • Neil said:

    @JamieRoss7

    A leaflet is being handed out saying LGBT issues being taught in schools is "a recruitment drive". #UKIPSpring

    https://pbs.twimg.com/media/B-2Rjc1UcAEXc5d.jpg

    It doesnt look like a UKIP leaflet. You cant control what crazies might turn up to your conference (I've dodged more Socialist Party / SWP types at conferences down the years than I care to remember).

    The loons from the Monday club after IDS cut off links to them were hilarious in 2002.

    They were talking about how being gay would become mandatory.
    I suspect they play" ladies tennis" down John O's way
    Huh?
    You missed JOs magnificent post from yesterday afternoon ?

    Just caught up with it.

    Poor JohnO
  • PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    edited February 2015
    Ha! I noticed Ioan Gruffudd's waistcoat - he's a dish.

    Plato said:

    OT For anyone with access to ABC progs - Forever is brilliant. Sherlock Holmes meets Bones meets eternal life from the perspective of a Medical Examiner who is brought back to life again and again.

    Well Mrs SSC approves - I guess it has something to do with a well tailored waist coat..!

  • Jesse Norman looks like a Harry Enfield caricature.
  • F1: still far from clear, but Williams are looking fairly good.

    I plan on putting up the pre-season piece on 2 May. I know you're all looking forward to it ;)
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,937
    JackW said:

    Is PB enjoying a collective 69 today ?

    Days until the general election of course ..... :smiley:

    I seem to have drawn the short straw. I'm the one looking at your ARSE....

  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,708
    edited February 2015
    Smarmeron said:

    @Charles
    Even better was Ozzies "extra" inspectors.
    An outsourced company, whose employees were sending random letters to people on tax credits accusing them of fraud and demanding they proved the weren't.

    Could be a scam similar to calling people up at random and telling them they owe you money for the porn site they've been accessing. Knock on every door in Charles's neighbourhood and ask them to pay 150k to settle the outstanding issues with their film financing tax avoidance scheme.
  • Plato said:

    Ha! I noticed Ioan Gruffudd's waistcoat - he's a dish.

    Plato said:

    OT For anyone with access to ABC progs - Forever is brilliant. Sherlock Holmes meets Bones meets eternal life from the perspective of a Medical Examiner who is brought back to life again and again.

    Well Mrs SSC approves - I guess it has something to do with a well tailored waist coat..!

    I couldn’t possibly comment - However I do remember Ioan Gruffudd from the late 90s, he starred in the TV series ‘ Horatio Hornblower’ which was rather good – I got the boxed set for Christmas a couple of years back.
  • Secular blogger hacked to death in Bangladesh:
    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-31656222
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,411
    #AlexSalmondsSoleroLady
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,411
    Plato said:

    EPIC

    The best I can offer is a demand for £32k on the doorstep - they'd decided I was both myself and my maiden name self - and then multiplied the first number they thought of by their shoe size.

    Since I was paid entirely by PAYE and my employer was BT plc - it seemed highly unlikely that I owed them any money as either identity. We finally agreed I owed them £183 - frankly I was happy to pay them to go away.

    Charles said:

    O/T but amused me a great deal.

    Apparently HMRC is doorstepping people who have been asked to reach a settlement on the film financing. I was told by someone that they turned up with a portable credit card machine and an invoice for £150,000...

    Smarmeron said:

    @Charles
    Even better was Ozzies "extra" inspectors.
    An outsourced company, whose employees were sending random letters to people on tax credits accusing them of fraud and demanding they proved the weren't.

    Could be a scam similar to calling people up at random and telling them they owe you money for the porn site they've been accessing. Knock on every door in Charles's neighbourhood and ask them to pay 150k to settle the outstanding issues with their film financing tax avoidance scheme.
    Sounds like a scam. I'd phone the police.
  • PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    His credits are very long. I don't remember him in Titanic - but then again I hated that movie.

    This fellow Titanic hater got it right! I love this funny alternative history take on the whole movie and Celine Dion.

    Plato said:

    Ha! I noticed Ioan Gruffudd's waistcoat - he's a dish.

    Plato said:

    OT For anyone with access to ABC progs - Forever is brilliant. Sherlock Holmes meets Bones meets eternal life from the perspective of a Medical Examiner who is brought back to life again and again.

    Well Mrs SSC approves - I guess it has something to do with a well tailored waist coat..!

    I couldn’t possibly comment - However I do remember Ioan Gruffudd from the late 90s, he starred in the TV series ‘ Horatio Hornblower’ which was rather good – I got the boxed set for Christmas a couple of years back.
  • O/T the Tories not known as the stupid party for nothing
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,411
    Shouldn't the Friday Populus be out by now ?
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    @Peston: Labour to cut maximum pension pots, annual contributions & tax relief for £150k+ earners to cover £3.1bn cost of student fee cut
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    Neil said:

    You cant control what crazies might turn up to your conference (I've dodged more Socialist Party / SWP types at conferences down the years than I care to remember).

    And that's just inside the conference hall...
  • F1: Magnussen may be Manor's second driver. Not certain yet.

    But he also might take Alonso's McLaren seat for Australia.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    Charles said:

    The current procedure, with its implicit bias against mobile inner-city voters, is too close to the old Southern states' procedures designed to keep unwelcome voters off the rolls.

    Ludicrous, and self-serving, Nick. You should be ashamed of yourself.

    Asking people to register, either online or by filling in a form, and prove their identity is in no way similar to the racially targeted voter education laws in the old Southern States.
    "In no way similar" is a very bold claim.
    Both bold and with emphasis ;)
  • Dair said:

    Patrick said:

    Dair said:

    Alistair said:


    Public sector final salary pensions that are on average worth less than private sector final salary pensions? Lets talk.

    What private sector final salary pensions?
    Some remain. I have one. But rare as hen's teeth indeed.
    Can new starts join?

    The very few remain tend to be closed to new entrants.
    Nope - closed to new entrants.

    FWIW I think the whole pension and asset management industry is about to get a very rude shock. A market crash is going to happen sooner or later and both equities and bonds are going to suffer from a return to more realistic price discovery mechanisms in a hugely indebted world. We've enjoyed a bull market for so long that many in the industry have simply never had to deal with falling asset values. One long lost art of good investment is to know how to avoid holding an unwanted baby when the market collapses just as much as if not more so than the art of picking the optimal performers in a universally rising market.
  • TheWatcherTheWatcher Posts: 5,262
    edited February 2015
    TGOHF said:

    @Peston: Labour to cut maximum pension pots, annual contributions & tax relief for £150k+ earners to cover £3.1bn cost of student fee cut

    Oh dear, what a shame. All those Charity & Local Authority Chief Execs who'll get walloped. Still, I'm sure they'll find a way around it.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    Smarmeron said:
    "HMRC has confirmed that the letters are genuine and that you do need to respond to them within the stated timeframe (usually 30 days) to continue receiving your tax credits."

    Seems clear - provide the information.
  • O/T the Tories not known as the stupid party for nothing

    The individual MPs weren't stupid, though. They didn't want Lords reform, and they didn't want their seats monkeyed around with to marginally increase the chances of the person who passed them over for promotion keeping his job. They voted down the first thing they didn't want and the LibDems threw in the second thing for free.
  • O/T the Tories not known as the stupid party for nothing

    New boundaries and AV referendum. If the Tories had voted the other way on both, they'd be in a much better position now.
    Unintended consequences ;-).
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    Charles said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Clegg stated the two issues were unrelated (Boundary reform/HoL reform)

    Boundary reform was a seeming quid pro quo for the AV referendum

    The Lib Dems immediately shed about half their vote after the GE.

    It became blindlingly obvious that incumbency is & was incredibly important to the Lib Dems irrespective of national vote share.

    Clegg looked at the electoral maths and realised

    In order to save some semblance of Lib Demmery at Westminster

    The new boundaries could not come into play

    To do so... would yield a catastrophic defeat for the Lib Dems in terms of seats - worse than what they are facing at the moment, perhaps as few as 10 seats - something like that.

    HoL reform provided a convenient excuse.

    & He outplayed Dave on this one.

    I buy all the steps in your logic, but I'm not sure he "outplayed" Dave.

    He reached an agreement with Cameron. He then broke that agreement.

    Perhaps Cameron made a mistake in trusting him, but I'm not sure that is being "outplayed"
    Clegg had the last laugh though - just look at the poll ratings... Er..
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787

    JackW said:

    Is PB enjoying a collective 69 today ?

    Days until the general election of course ..... :smiley:

    I seem to have drawn the short straw. I'm the one looking at your ARSE....

    Au contraire .... You lucky, lucky fellow ....

    Take note, appreciate fully and then inwardly digest .... :wink:



  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    Patrick said:

    . One long lost art of good investment is to know how to avoid holding an unwanted baby when the market collapses just as much as if not more so than the art of picking the optimal performers in a universally rising market.

    The problem is what do you do with the money?

    Gilts look horribly over-valued, but keep going up

    Cash pays less than inflation

    Equities are high, and at risk from the end of QE (although not massively overvalued).

    Personally I'm long premium bonds ;)
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    Looking at my list of ukip top targets I compiled two years ago and comparing with the latest constiency polls

    Boston 6/1
    S Basildon E Thurrock 20/1
    South Thanet 5/1

    All show ukip in the lead on the raw data


    Antifrank tipped CastlePoint last year at 5/2 I think

    Ukip in the lead there as well
  • SmarmeronSmarmeron Posts: 5,099
    @TGOHF
    Hang on? Aren't you the one who thinks intrusion into the tax affairs of investors in Panama are no concern of anyone bar the person themselves?
    Maybe they should be sending random letters elsewhere?
  • MarkHopkinsMarkHopkins Posts: 5,584

    O/T the Tories not known as the stupid party for nothing

    New boundaries and AV referendum. If the Tories had voted the other way on both, they'd be in a much better position now.
    Unintended consequences ;-).

    If the Tories had voted the other way on both.

    How would it be, if the Tories had voted against the AV referendum, have helped them?

  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633

    TGOHF said:

    @Peston: Labour to cut maximum pension pots, annual contributions & tax relief for £150k+ earners to cover £3.1bn cost of student fee cut

    Oh dear, what a shame. All those Charity & Local Authority Chief Execs who'll get walloped. Still, I'm sure they'll find a way around it.
    Share options.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,568
    edited February 2015

    Charles said:

    The current procedure, with its implicit bias against mobile inner-city voters, is too close to the old Southern states' procedures designed to keep unwelcome voters off the rolls.

    Ludicrous, and self-serving, Nick. You should be ashamed of yourself.

    Asking people to register, either online or by filling in a form, and prove their identity is in no way similar to the racially targeted voter education laws in the old Southern States.
    "In no way similar" is a very bold claim.
    Quite. I think it is similar in effect and probably in intent. We're all agreed that practical effect has been to result in a huge drop in registration in inner cities, where people are more mobile (would we bother to keep re-registering if we moved every few months?) and sometimes less comfortable with forms. I think it's entirely unacceptable that new boundaries should be drawn up based on exclusion of lots of eligible voters, and I'm not innocent enough to think that the impact of excluding mostly Labour voters is an accident.

    Broxtowe hasn't been much affected so Charles's suggestion of self-interest is wrong - we have a not very mobile population. But at a national level it's a distortion and it should not translate into new boundaries.
  • TheWatcherTheWatcher Posts: 5,262
    TGOHF said:

    TGOHF said:

    @Peston: Labour to cut maximum pension pots, annual contributions & tax relief for £150k+ earners to cover £3.1bn cost of student fee cut

    Oh dear, what a shame. All those Charity & Local Authority Chief Execs who'll get walloped. Still, I'm sure they'll find a way around it.
    Share options.
    So the 'grab' on higher earners is going to make about a fiver, by the time one adds in the admin costs.
  • PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    edited February 2015
    Umm, your Sherlock skills have clearly taken the day off. I was in subsequent prolonged discussions with HMRC about their inability to use two brain cells. Hence the final cheque for £183 just to stick a fork in it.

    I found the whole saga highly entertaining, my accountant went white when I told him and couldn't understand how I was taking it so well and laughing about it. When you're accused of some massive tax evasion on your own doorstep apparently conducted by your maiden self and your married one at the same time, and you know you didn't do it - well it was hilarious.

    After an hour Mrs HMRC discussed cats and Maine Coons - she had one too... If I ever want a career as a hitman [should that be hitperson?] then I'll use kittens as my cover ;^)
    Pulpstar said:

    Plato said:

    EPIC

    The best I can offer is a demand for £32k on the doorstep - they'd decided I was both myself and my maiden name self - and then multiplied the first number they thought of by their shoe size.

    Since I was paid entirely by PAYE and my employer was BT plc - it seemed highly unlikely that I owed them any money as either identity. We finally agreed I owed them £183 - frankly I was happy to pay them to go away.

    Charles said:

    O/T but amused me a great deal.

    Apparently HMRC is doorstepping people who have been asked to reach a settlement on the film financing. I was told by someone that they turned up with a portable credit card machine and an invoice for £150,000...

    Smarmeron said:

    @Charles
    Even better was Ozzies "extra" inspectors.
    An outsourced company, whose employees were sending random letters to people on tax credits accusing them of fraud and demanding they proved the weren't.

    Could be a scam similar to calling people up at random and telling them they owe you money for the porn site they've been accessing. Knock on every door in Charles's neighbourhood and ask them to pay 150k to settle the outstanding issues with their film financing tax avoidance scheme.
    Sounds like a scam. I'd phone the police.
  • SmarmeronSmarmeron Posts: 5,099
    @TheWatcher
    In that case, they will hardly notice, so why are you getting in a complete "tizz" about it?
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    Smarmeron said:

    @TheWatcher
    In that case, they will hardly notice, so why are you getting in a complete "tizz" about it?

    Because Ed needs the 2 Bn pa to pay for a fees cut for high earning graduates.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    edited February 2015
    Yesterday the Conservatives were empty chaired on the Daily Politics becuase they couldn't defend the imiigration figures

    Today CAGE are unable to find anyone to defend yesterdays press conference that blamed the UK govt for British muslims murdering Western journalists, and are likewise empty chaired

    Why cant these people admit to or apologise for what they've done?


  • Populus

    Con 31 (-1) Lab 33 (+1) LD 9 (nc) UKIP 16 (+1) Greens 6 (nc)

    http://populus.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/OmOnline_Vote_27-02-2015_BPC.pdf
  • SmarmeronSmarmeron Posts: 5,099
    @TGOHF
    Dave reckons he can manage that from fat people?
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,386
    edited February 2015

    Populus

    Con 31 (-1) Lab 33 (+1) LD 9 (nc) UKIP 16 (+1) Greens 6 (nc)

    http://populus.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/OmOnline_Vote_27-02-2015_BPC.pdf

    Lab back in lead as expected.

  • TheWatcherTheWatcher Posts: 5,262
    edited February 2015
    TGOHF said:

    Smarmeron said:

    @TheWatcher
    In that case, they will hardly notice, so why are you getting in a complete "tizz" about it?

    Because Ed needs the 2 Bn pa to pay for a fees cut for high earning graduates.
    And the job guarantee promise for the long term unemployed that Ed Balls made in 2013.

    Oh look, it's the same plan.

    'The long-term unemployed will be guaranteed a job under new proposals from the Labour party.

    If it is re-elected into government, it said it would cut pension tax relief for high earners in order to secure work for those who have been without it for extended periods.

    Those earning more than £150,000 a year would see their tax relief slashed under the proposals.'

    http://metro.co.uk/2013/01/04/labour-jobs-guarantee-ed-balls-promises-work-for-long-term-unemployed-3337913/
  • The reason for the Populus delay.

    They had to extend the fieldwork into today, to get the necessary respondents.

    Normally they have the fieldwork completed by Thursday evening.
  • SmarmeronSmarmeron Posts: 5,099
    @GIN1138
    Ukip have a similar problem.
    They can't get the Poles out because they have jobs.
  • "Do we reckon Labour would give a national ID card type of system another shot?"

    Only if they're stupid.

    We saw off one Labour national ID card scheme, and we can again.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,411

    Populus

    Con 31 (-1) Lab 33 (+1) LD 9 (nc) UKIP 16 (+1) Greens 6 (nc)

    http://populus.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/OmOnline_Vote_27-02-2015_BPC.pdf

    Holy Tory heavy sample.
  • SmarmeronSmarmeron Posts: 5,099
    @A_Man_Called_Horse
    ID cards are a pointless intrusion into our civil liberties. Government spying on you, and the collection of minute details, is essential to keep us safe from nasty people.
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    Plato said:

    His credits are very long. I don't remember him in Titanic - but then again I hated that movie.

    This fellow Titanic hater got it right! I love this funny alternative history take on the whole movie and Celine Dion.

    Plato said:

    Ha! I noticed Ioan Gruffudd's waistcoat - he's a dish.

    Plato said:

    OT For anyone with access to ABC progs - Forever is brilliant. Sherlock Holmes meets Bones meets eternal life from the perspective of a Medical Examiner who is brought back to life again and again.

    Well Mrs SSC approves - I guess it has something to do with a well tailored waist coat..!

    I couldn’t possibly comment - However I do remember Ioan Gruffudd from the late 90s, he starred in the TV series ‘ Horatio Hornblower’ which was rather good – I got the boxed set for Christmas a couple of years back.
    Wasn't he in an earlier version rather than the Dion version ?

  • So what is the latest Labour pension raid so I know what clients need to do asap in case?

    jeremy warner‏@JeremyWarnerUK·3 mins3 minutes ago
    Re previous tweet on Labour tax reform on pensions, confusion reigns on precisely what Miliband meant. Seeking clarification

    jeremy warner‏@JeremyWarnerUK·12m12 minutes ago
    Sophistry from Miliband on pension tax breaks. Implies only those on more than £150,000 will be affected. But actually all 40pc taxpayers
  • Have I missed something on Labour plan for cut from 9K to 6K student fee? The party are saying that the gap in HE funding will come from pension tax relief adjustment for those over £150k earnings. I can't believe that comes close to filling the gap.

    Guardian did an analysis two or three years ago and came up with a figure of £840m

    http://www.theguardian.com/politics/reality-check-with-polly-curtis/2012/mar/07/taxing-the-rich-pensions-taxed
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,708
    edited February 2015

    "Do we reckon Labour would give a national ID card type of system another shot?"

    Only if they're stupid.

    We saw off one Labour national ID card scheme, and we can again.

    Fair enough, allow me to rephrase. Do we reckon Labour will try to make sure everyone, whether they've been employed or not, has a National Insurance Number? Also, do we reckon they'll have an initiative to make sure you can always have a National Insurance Card sent to the correct address?
  • Cutting the lifetime allowance to £1m would be £50k pa in a gold plated DB scheme (MPs) whilst £1m in a personal pension might get you £30k pa with similar features.

    Cutting the annual allowance to £30k pa affects everyone not just 45% tax payers.

    Are those the plans?
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    Pulpstar said:

    #AlexSalmondsSoleroLady

    #VoteSNPGetSexy
  • jeremy warner‏@JeremyWarnerUK·12m12 minutes ago
    Sophistry from Miliband on pension tax breaks. Implies only those on more than £150,000 will be affected. But actually all 40pc taxpayers

    So another pension raid by Labour on the rich - and not so rich...?
  • SmarmeronSmarmeron Posts: 5,099
    "Lloyds to resume dividend payments"

    If Ozzie had waited, he could have collected the "divvie" on those share he just sold.
    Never mind, I am sure the money will go to a worthy cause.
  • BenMBenM Posts: 1,795

    Populus

    Con 31 (-1) Lab 33 (+1) LD 9 (nc) UKIP 16 (+1) Greens 6 (nc)

    http://populus.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/OmOnline_Vote_27-02-2015_BPC.pdf

    Lab gasps and wheezes into March *just* ahead.

    Although for many pundits it wasn't supposed to be like this. The Tories were going to be in the lead and clear by now (looking at you Rentoul).
  • There have been many movies of the Titanic tragedy, including one released by Nazi Germany, as well as an animated adaptation with a singing octopus and a happy ending. So, there are worse versions than the James Cameron one!
  • O/T the Tories not known as the stupid party for nothing

    New boundaries and AV referendum. If the Tories had voted the other way on both, they'd be in a much better position now.
    Unintended consequences ;-).

    If the Tories had voted the other way on both.

    How would it be, if the Tories had voted against the AV referendum, have helped them?

    The Tories may have allowed the AV referendum, but then campaigned against it. If they had campaigned for it they would be getting all UKIPs 2nd preferences. But you knew that, didn't you?
This discussion has been closed.