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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » TNS poll sees the SNP extend their lead from 10% to 16%

SystemSystem Posts: 11,686
edited February 2015 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » TNS poll sees the SNP extend their lead from 10% to 16%

For those expecting differential turnout in Scotland to have an effect in May, “A majority of voters (61%) say they are certain to vote in the election, including 74% of both those intending to vote Labour and those backing the SNP.”

Read the full story here


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Comments

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    Ishmael_XIshmael_X Posts: 3,664
    edited February 2015
    1?
    Yay!!
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    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @afneil: New constituency poll in South Thanet coming out showing Farage comfortably ahead.
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    AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    Meanwhile, Survation find UKIP 11% ahead of Labour in South Thanet, with the Conservatives in third.
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    isamisam Posts: 40,930
    Matthew Goodwin (@GoodwinMJ)
    26/02/2015 22:01
    NEW POLL -Thanet South- 1st to name candidates
    Nigel Farage (Ukip) 39%
    Will Scobie (Lab) 28%
    Craig Mackinlay (Con) 27%
    Via @Survation
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,929
    This is Labour's most favourable pollster too - this is like the Lib Dems being on 6 with ICM or UKIP being on 13 with Survation.
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    FregglesFreggles Posts: 3,486
    Nigel Farage MP
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    Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 49,312
    Broken, sleazy Labour on the slide?
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    AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    @Survation: NEW POLL S.Thanet:
    Farage/UKIP 39%
    Scobie/LAB 28%
    Mackinlay/CON 27%
    Driver/GRE 3%
    Timpson/LD 2%
    Murray/FUKP 1%
    AP 1% http://t.co/sULCgoBh5P
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    ArtistArtist Posts: 1,882
    I'm guessing there'll be a debate about the effectiveness of naming candidates after that Thanet South poll.
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    RobDRobD Posts: 58,969
    2% chance, huh?
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    TykejohnnoTykejohnno Posts: 7,362

    Matthew Goodwin @GoodwinMJ

    NEW POLL -Thanet South- 1st to name candidates
    Nigel Farage (Ukip) 39%
    Will Scobie (Lab) 28%
    Craig Mackinlay (Con) 27%
    Via @Survation

  • Options
    FregglesFreggles Posts: 3,486
    #progressivealliance
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    chestnutchestnut Posts: 7,341
    So Farage is in a fight.

    A Survation lead of 11 has a habit of being about about 2 in reality.
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    RobDRobD Posts: 58,969
    WHAT. Tories 0 in Scotland?? It can't be.
  • Options
    ArtistArtist Posts: 1,882
    Lord Ashcroft had it Con 33%, UKIP 32% Lab 26%
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    SquareRootSquareRoot Posts: 7,095
    Poor old Ed what a shame .
  • Options
    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,929
    Well these are nice polls for my positions.
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    AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    The TNS Scottish poll is unremitting bad news for Labour. Time to consider increasing my constituency bets in Scotland.
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    AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    SNP on the slide then? What was the accents this time?

    I am getting more and more relaxed about my Glasgow bets as the days wear on.
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    chestnutchestnut Posts: 7,341
    Survation over called Reckless and Carswell by 8-9%.
  • Options
    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,362
    Pedants corner: South Thanet not North!
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    AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    antifrank said:

    The TNS Scottish poll is unremitting bad news for Labour. Time to consider increasing my constituency bets in Scotland.

    I thought my bet on Cumbernauld looked daring at the time. It looks down right prosaic now.
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    isamisam Posts: 40,930
    chestnut said:

    So Farage is in a fight.

    A Survation lead of 11 has a habit of being about about 2 in reality.

    Not at all

    Using the survation poll from clacton I calculated that reckless would win by 7.2% given survation gave him a 9% lead

    So farage prob about 9% clear, should be around 1/4
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    chestnutchestnut Posts: 7,341
    Is there anyone left who doesn't have the SNP at least 15 points ahead of Labour?
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    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,477
    chestnut said:

    Is there anyone left who doesn't have the SNP at least 15 points ahead of Labour?

    Panelbase
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    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,362
    Opposition to Farage perfectly split. If true, that means he'll win easily as no coalescing will take place.
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    AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    chestnut said:

    Is there anyone left who doesn't have the SNP at least 15 points ahead of Labour?

    Panelbase, but they asked other questions before the polling question.
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    chestnutchestnut Posts: 7,341
    isam said:


    Using the survation poll from clacton I calculated that reckless would win by 7.2% given survation gave him a 9% lead

    Survation called him 15% up - fieldwork 27/28 October.
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    JEOJEO Posts: 3,656
    The graph at the top of the article is highly compelling. Who would have thought five years ago that the Liberal Democrats could become the sixth party in Scotland, falling behind even the Greens and UKIP? I wonder whether the current state of play will be a permanent realignment north of the border, or whether it is a temporary after-effects of the referendum campaign. Nicola Sturgeon does not seem to be as talented a statesman as Alex Salmond, so it may be challenging to maintain this level of support over the longer term. If she does, I would expect another referendum within ten years and we could see the end of the union this time.
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    TykejohnnoTykejohnno Posts: 7,362

    Matthew Goodwin @GoodwinMJ

    Thanet S poll:
    Cons in 3rd
    Politically diverse base for Farage: 2010 Cons a minority
    Younger than usual: 43% 35-54yr olds backing Farage

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    FregglesFreggles Posts: 3,486
    SquareRoot said:

    Poor old Ed what a shame .

    Yes, because the SNP are dying to support a Tory government.
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,929
    Alistair said:

    antifrank said:

    The TNS Scottish poll is unremitting bad news for Labour. Time to consider increasing my constituency bets in Scotland.

    I thought my bet on Cumbernauld looked daring at the time. It looks down right prosaic now.
    I tried to get 400 on but Betfair stopped me at 240 the night of the poll.
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    AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    RobD said:

    WHAT. Tories 0 in Scotland?? It can't be.

    Don't see how that can be possible even with those numbers, would require the SNP getting 12000 more votes in Dumfiesshire, Clydesdale and Tweedsdale to take it. Still, it is a stupid constituency geographically so maybe there are some extreme Yes pockets in it to the north.
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    GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 20,822
    Survation and TNS both look OTT to me.
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    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,477
    Casino_Royale said:

    Pedants corner: South Thanet not North!

    Your eyes are deceiving you, it says South Thanet.

    *Innocent Face*

    I'm proposing a new rule, pollsters are not allowed to publish polls at the same time as another pollster.

    It is bloody stressful.
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    AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    JEO said:

    The graph at the top of the article is highly compelling. Who would have thought five years ago that the Liberal Democrats could become the sixth party in Scotland, falling behind even the Greens and UKIP? I wonder whether the current state of play will be a permanent realignment north of the border, or whether it is a temporary after-effects of the referendum campaign. Nicola Sturgeon does not seem to be as talented a statesman as Alex Salmond, so it may be challenging to maintain this level of support over the longer term. If she does, I would expect another referendum within ten years and we could see the end of the union this time.

    The Lib Dem annihilation started in 2011.
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    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,477
    But the most important news.

    I've finished writing a thread on AV.

    All being well it will go up next week.

    Or Sunday if nothing much is happening in the world of politics.
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    QuincelQuincel Posts: 3,949
    RobD said:

    WHAT. Tories 0 in Scotland?? It can't be.

    Scottish Pandas nailed on.
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    chestnutchestnut Posts: 7,341
    Yougov will have a 2-3 point Labour lead, IMO.
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    welshowlwelshowl Posts: 4,460
    edited February 2015
    JEO said:

    The graph at the top of the article is highly compelling. Who would have thought five years ago that the Liberal Democrats could become the sixth party in Scotland, falling behind even the Greens and UKIP? I wonder whether the current state of play will be a permanent realignment north of the border, or whether it is a temporary after-effects of the referendum campaign. Nicola Sturgeon does not seem to be as talented a statesman as Alex Salmond, so it may be challenging to maintain this level of support over the longer term. If she does, I would expect another referendum within ten years and we could see the end of the union this time.

    Could be like 1882 ( I think - haven't checked exactly) and the emergence of the IPP in Ireland. Took 40 years from there to the Irish Free State, but events move more quickly these days.

    Thing is IMHO Salmond could've won in September if he'd been more honest about some of the downsides of independence rather than claiming it was all upside.
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    AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    Apparently Kircaldy is one of the cons for Ashcrofts second round of polling.
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,929
    This poll is also good news for Nick Clegg I reckon.
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    Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 49,312
    RobD said:

    WHAT. Tories 0 in Scotland?? It can't be.

    Fret not, they still have 1 MEP, 15 MSPs and 115 local councillors in Scotland :)
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    FregglesFreggles Posts: 3,486
    Pulpstar said:

    This poll is also good news for Nick Clegg I reckon.


    WHY?
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,929
    Freggles said:

    Pulpstar said:

    This poll is also good news for Nick Clegg I reckon.


    WHY?
    Leader bump.
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    Hengists_GiftHengists_Gift Posts: 628
    edited February 2015
    Artist said:

    Lord Ashcroft had it Con 33%, UKIP 32% Lab 26%

    Yes in November Ashcroft had those figures. A lot of water under the bridge since then Farage has been campaigning in the constituency since the start of the new year.

    http://lordashcroftpolls.com/2015/01/thanet-south-2/

    I suspect the Tories will rue the day that they put a reject for the UKIP leadership up against the current leader of UKIP
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    Peter_the_PunterPeter_the_Punter Posts: 13,320
    edited February 2015
    There have been rumours of an anti-Farage pact in S Thanet, along the lines of either the Labour or Conservative candidate standing down to allow the other a free run to stop him.

    On these numbers, such a pact would be very unlikely to work. It's not even clear who would have the better chance of beating him.

    Agree the 1/4 quoted by somebody earlier is about right.
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    chestnutchestnut Posts: 7,341
    The SNP column is in Lib Dem orange, and the Lib Dems are in SNP yellow?
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    Hengists_GiftHengists_Gift Posts: 628
    Well that will get the UKIP Spring Conference off to good start
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    TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    Is the Thanet poll weighted by past vote ?
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    TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    And Kippers paid for this poll ?
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    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,477
    TGOHF said:

    Is the Thanet poll weighted by past vote ?

    I don't think so, usually they weight by demographics
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    isamisam Posts: 40,930
    chestnut said:

    isam said:


    Using the survation poll from clacton I calculated that reckless would win by 7.2% given survation gave him a 9% lead

    Survation called him 15% up - fieldwork 27/28 October.
    Survation had reckless 9% in the lead

    I had a Barney with TSE about it and my conclusion was if they had overstated reckless by the same amount as they had Carswell then reckless would win by 7.2% (might have been 7.4%)

    It was more or less what he won by anyway

    Farage will win very easily. Waste your money opposing if you want, don't say I didn't try to help
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,929
    Peter_the_Punter said:

    There have been rumours of an anti-Farage pact in S Thanet, along the lines of either the Labour or Conservative candidate standing down to allow the other a free run to stop him.

    On these numbers, such a pact would be very unlikely to work. It's not even clear who would have the better chance of beating him.

    Agree the 1/4 quoted by somebody earlier is about right.

    Who stands down on these numbers ?
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    TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    TGOHF said:

    Is the Thanet poll weighted by past vote ?

    I don't think so, usually they weight by demographics
    Right......
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    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,477
    YouGov/Sun poll tonight - Labour lead by one: CON 33%, LAB 34%, LD 8%, UKIP 13%, GRN 6​%
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,929
    SeanT said:

    Lib Dems level pegging with UKIP in SCOTLAND

    Surely that is worth a

    CHORTLE

    We have to take these polls seriously now, the Nats are gonna hammer SLAB, because, logic. If you were a Scots voter in 2015, what would stop you voting Nat (quite aside from your preferred option of indy, if you have such)?

    Maximum SNP representation at Westminster means the best possible deal for Scots, whoever wins in London. Meantime, Devomax protects Scots from "nasty English Tory taxes".

    If I lived in Fife, despite being a Unionist, I'd vote SNP in 2015. Self interest dictates.

    It'd be a very easy decision.
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    TykejohnnoTykejohnno Posts: 7,362

    Sun Politics ✔ @Sun_Politics

    YouGov/Sun poll tonight - Labour lead by one: CON 33%, LAB 34%, LD 8%, UKIP 13%, GRN 6​%

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    GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 20,822
    edited February 2015
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    YouGov/Sun poll tonight - Labour lead by one: CON 33%, LAB 34%, LD 8%, UKIP 13%, GRN 6​%

    As predicted. Lab have their first lead of the week (with YG)

    Saturday's guess will be tricky now...
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    compouter2compouter2 Posts: 2,371
    The pollsters going all out for PB Gold Standard are now reduced to two.
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    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,477
    compouter2 said:

    The pollsters going all out for PB Gold Standard are now reduced to two.

    Err three.
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,929
    The flipside of the Labour Scottish polling is that the Tories are having a rough time in England.
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    chestnutchestnut Posts: 7,341
    isam said:

    Survation had reckless 9% in the lead

    First poll, yes. Final, no.

    The Tories went up, but so did UKIP - largely on the back of the Labour vote collapsing.

    I'm clueless as to what will happen in Thanet, and certainly wouldn't bet against Farage.

    Track record for Newark, Clacton and Rochester has always ended up as a closer call than Survation tell us.
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    Peter_the_PunterPeter_the_Punter Posts: 13,320
    Pulpstar said:

    Peter_the_Punter said:

    There have been rumours of an anti-Farage pact in S Thanet, along the lines of either the Labour or Conservative candidate standing down to allow the other a free run to stop him.

    On these numbers, such a pact would be very unlikely to work. It's not even clear who would have the better chance of beating him.

    Agree the 1/4 quoted by somebody earlier is about right.

    Who stands down on these numbers ?
    Nobody.
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    GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 20,822
    Pulpstar said:

    The flipside of the Labour Scottish polling is that the Tories are having a rough time in England.

    Nothing like Lab is facing "up north" though...

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    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    Ed Balls put a post-election deal with the SNP back on the table yesterday by refusing to rule out such a move.

    The shadow chancellor appeared to change his previous position against an agreement with Nicola Sturgeon
    http://www.thetimes.co.uk/tto/news/politics/article4366783.ece
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    TykejohnnoTykejohnno Posts: 7,362
    Front of the mail as a photo of jihadi john as a school boy.

    Friday's Daily Mail:
    Angelic schoolboy who turned into a reviled executioner
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    Hengists_GiftHengists_Gift Posts: 628
    Thanet South data:

    http://survation.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/02/South-Thanet-Poll-Results.pdf
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    compouter2compouter2 Posts: 2,371
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    compouter2 said:

    The pollsters going all out for PB Gold Standard are now reduced to two.

    Err three.
    Whoops,a few days ahead of myself.
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    Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 49,312
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    YouGov/Sun poll tonight - Labour lead by one: CON 33%, LAB 34%, LD 8%, UKIP 13%, GRN 6​%

    Broken, sleazy Tories on the slide?
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    isamisam Posts: 40,930
    chestnut said:

    isam said:

    Survation had reckless 9% in the lead

    First poll, yes. Final, no.

    The Tories went up, but so did UKIP - largely on the back of the Labour vote collapsing.

    I'm clueless as to what will happen in Thanet, and certainly wouldn't bet against Farage.

    Track record for Newark, Clacton and Rochester has always ended up as a closer call than Survation tell us.

    isam • Posts: 12,778
    November 2014
    Hmmm here is an interesting conversation between TSE and myself after the first Survation poll


    TheScreamingEagles said
    "First Survation in Clacton gave Carswell a 44% lead. First Survation in Rochester and Strood Reckless a 9% lead.

    I'm just saying it will be closer than Betfair implies."

    ---------------------------------------------------------------------------

    isam • Posts: 10,017
    October 16

    "When the poll gave Carswell a 44pt lead, he shortened from about 1/6 to 1/16.

    Reckless is about 2/7 off a 9pt lead which isn't far wrong

    If Survation overstate Reckless to the same degree they did Carswell, I think Reckless would win by 7.2%"
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    AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    edited February 2015
    GIN1138 said:

    Pulpstar said:

    The flipside of the Labour Scottish polling is that the Tories are having a rough time in England.

    Nothing like Lab is facing "up north" though...

    Labour losing all its seats in Scotland doesn't affect the key battleground which is Lab/Con marginals.
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    GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 20,822
    Anthony has updated his polling average;

    http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/

    No change thanks to Lord A and Survation...
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    chestnutchestnut Posts: 7,341
    Pulpstar said:

    The flipside of the Labour Scottish polling is that the Tories are having a rough time in England.

    In the last couple of years, the polls have moved significantly against labour between February and May.Whether the Tories can capitalise on a repeat remains to be seen. UKIP and the SNP have been the main beneficiaries in 2013 and 2014.
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    GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 20,822
    edited February 2015
    Alistair said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Pulpstar said:

    The flipside of the Labour Scottish polling is that the Tories are having a rough time in England.

    Nothing like Lab is facing "up north" though...

    Labour losing all its seats in Scotland doesn't affect the key battleground which is Lab/Con marginals.
    Just saying the Tores are clearly NOT facing an English meltdown like Labour in Scotland.

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    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,285
    FFS...why are the likes of Newsnight pushing the Cage Prisoners narrative.
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    TykejohnnoTykejohnno Posts: 7,362
    Daily mail front page

    https://twitter.com/MiriamElder/status/571076471562870784/photo/1
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    GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 20,822
    SeanT said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Pulpstar said:

    The flipside of the Labour Scottish polling is that the Tories are having a rough time in England.

    Nothing like Lab is facing "up north" though...

    Sure. But an SNP landslide in Scotland erases much of the FPTP-bias towards Labour.

    I find it VERY hard to see Miliband getting an overall majority if he loses 30 seats north of Berwick.

    As things stand, it's either a NOM Cameron or a NOM Ed GE.

    I also wonder if we are starting to see evidence of Shy Kippers. There has been a sustained attack on the party for weeks, now, on TV and in the papers. Yet all of UKIP's memes are selling well (cf today's migration figures). If shy Tories were once such a phenomenon pollsters had to adjust for it, how about shy Farageists?

    i am faintly suspicious of UKIP's decline in the polls. This General Election is deliciously indecipherable.
    I'm still sticking with Cameron NOM, which has been my prediction, minus a few wobbles, all the way along.

    What happens then is anyone's guess though.
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,929
    edited February 2015
    chestnut said:

    Pulpstar said:

    The flipside of the Labour Scottish polling is that the Tories are having a rough time in England.

    In the last couple of years, the polls have moved significantly against labour between February and May.Whether the Tories can capitalise on a repeat remains to be seen. UKIP and the SNP have been the main beneficiaries in 2013 and 2014.
    I'm hopeful of copping various SNP boats landing, Lab Minority, Con most seats, Ed PM, Ed, Dave, Nick & all out before the year is out ;)
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    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,285
    edited February 2015
    Oh FFS...even more Caged Prisoners on Newsnight...STOP GIVING THESE PEOPLE EXPOSURE.
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    TheWatcherTheWatcher Posts: 5,262
    edited February 2015
    Newsnight are losing the plot. Fifth columnists.

    Clowns blaming MI5. Unreal.
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    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,477
    Many thanks to everyone who posted links to the electoral calculus Scotland link on the previous thread.
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    TykejohnnoTykejohnno Posts: 7,362
    Pulpstar said:

    chestnut said:

    Pulpstar said:

    The flipside of the Labour Scottish polling is that the Tories are having a rough time in England.

    In the last couple of years, the polls have moved significantly against labour between February and May.Whether the Tories can capitalise on a repeat remains to be seen. UKIP and the SNP have been the main beneficiaries in 2013 and 2014.
    I'm hopeful of copping various SNP boats landing, Lab Minority, Con most seats, Ed PM, Ed, Dave, Nick & all out before the year is out ;)
    The worrying bit is the clown as PM.
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,929
    I'd like to see a Leeds NW, Clegg named Hallam and Bristol West poll.
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,929
    & A non survation poll in Witney.
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    compouter2compouter2 Posts: 2,371
    Tykejohnno said:

    Pulpstar said:

    chestnut said:

    Pulpstar said:

    The flipside of the Labour Scottish polling is that the Tories are having a rough time in England.

    In the last couple of years, the polls have moved significantly against labour between February and May.Whether the Tories can capitalise on a repeat remains to be seen. UKIP and the SNP have been the main beneficiaries in 2013 and 2014.
    I'm hopeful of copping various SNP boats landing, Lab Minority, Con most seats, Ed PM, Ed, Dave, Nick & all out before the year is out ;)
    The worrying bit is the clown as PM.
    We have had him as PM for five years and you are only getting worried now ;-)
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    GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 20,822
    Check out the graph;

    http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/yougov-voting-intention

    Has crossover been achieved with YouGov?
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    CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,209
    Tykejohnno said:

    Daily mail front page

    https://twitter.com/MiriamElder/status/571076471562870784/photo/1

    Born in Kuwait. Father a mini-cab driver.

    What was the benefit to this country of letting this Kuwaiti family move here? What special skills did the father have? None we have to conclude - since he worked as a mini-cab driver.

    As for Amnesty - they promoted Cage, who it now seems had close links with Jihadi John. So the Amnesty I used to belong to and which campaigned for prisoners of conscience, those who abjured violence, has ended up being an organisation which promotes those who glorify in and promote violence.

    In that shift we can see the loss of a moral compass in the so-called liberal left.
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    TykejohnnoTykejohnno Posts: 7,362
    compouter2 said:

    Tykejohnno said:

    Pulpstar said:

    chestnut said:

    Pulpstar said:

    The flipside of the Labour Scottish polling is that the Tories are having a rough time in England.

    In the last couple of years, the polls have moved significantly against labour between February and May.Whether the Tories can capitalise on a repeat remains to be seen. UKIP and the SNP have been the main beneficiaries in 2013 and 2014.
    I'm hopeful of copping various SNP boats landing, Lab Minority, Con most seats, Ed PM, Ed, Dave, Nick & all out before the year is out ;)
    The worrying bit is the clown as PM.
    We have had him as PM for five years and you are only getting worried now ;-)
    On immigration,camerons a total clown,but worry not,Ed will double those figues ;-)

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    Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,820
    edited February 2015
    Anyone who in, say, 2011 had predicted the polling figures we are seeing today would have been at risk of being certified.
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    SmarmeronSmarmeron Posts: 5,099
    @GIN1138
    Like a drowning man clutching at straw..polls?
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,929
    Richard_Nabavi said:

    Anyone who in, say, 2011 had predicted the polling figures we are seeing today would have at risk of being certified.

    Or minted ;)
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    Tim_BTim_B Posts: 7,669
    I notice that amazon.co.uk has The Ice Twins by S K Tremayne in hardback on sale at 5 pounds, a 62% discount.
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    GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 20,822
    Smarmeron said:

    @GIN1138
    Like a drowning man clutching at straw..polls?

    Wait and see...

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    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,285
    Cyclefree said:

    Tykejohnno said:

    Daily mail front page

    https://twitter.com/MiriamElder/status/571076471562870784/photo/1

    Born in Kuwait. Father a mini-cab driver.

    What was the benefit to this country of letting this Kuwaiti family move here? What special skills did the father have? None we have to conclude - since he worked as a mini-cab driver.

    As for Amnesty - they promoted Cage, who it now seems had close links with Jihadi John. So the Amnesty I used to belong to and which campaigned for prisoners of conscience, those who abjured violence, has ended up being an organisation which promotes those who glorify in and promote violence.

    In that shift we can see the loss of a moral compass in the so-called liberal left.
    I am sure his father had a PhD in Astro-Physics, but it was just racialist Britain stopping him getting on...no? It is the same as the crazy argument that curry houses keep making that say we have to keep importing "chefs" from Bangladesh, because nobody in the UK can cook curries...and which group has one of the highest unemployment rates in the UK....
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,929
    Lib Dem vicar in the audience :)
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    SmarmeronSmarmeron Posts: 5,099
    @GIN1138
    For the moment, the polls don't seem to be indicating much, and haven't for some time now.
    Until something changes, I will keep looking for fatigued black swans on the horizon.
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    Stark_DawningStark_Dawning Posts: 9,305
    Richard_Nabavi said:

    Anyone who in, say, 2011 had predicted the polling figures we are seeing today would have at risk of being certified.

    Yes, remember that Labour would be polling twice that of the coalition parties combined. Now Labour supporters are reduced to totting up Labour's minuscule poll leads on their fingers, and trying to get some comfort from that. It must be a dreadful coming down.
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,929
    Tory plant lol
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    MortimerMortimer Posts: 13,946
    A relatively good panel on QT tonight - have a feeling Rachel Reeves will do well out of the next shadow Labour cabinet. I disagree with pretty much everything she says, but could see her as shadow Home or Health Or
    education - much better choice than Tristram in front of the camera...
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