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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Who will be the UK’s next Man in Brussels?
By this time next year, there’ll have been plenty of time to pick over the results of the European and local elections, for analysts, activists, elected members and party leaders alike. The local elections are something of a mirror-image to this year’s: heavily weighted to urban areas, including London.
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Just let Clegg step down as Lib Dem leader 3 months or so before next GE and give him the job.
I still think Clegg.
An interesting alternative would be David Davis. The rightwing of the Conservative party could hardly complain that David Cameron was ignoring them.
"Cabinet reshuffle 'five weeks away'
David Cameron is preparing for a Cabinet reshuffle in five weeks time, the Sun reports. According to the newspaper, Sir George Young will step down as Chief Whip in July, with the top tips to take over named as either former Defence Secretary Liam Fox or former energy minister John Hayes. Meanwhile the Times reports that there will be a series of mini reshuffles, with further reorganisations planned for September and possibly next year. The newspaper quotes a Whitehall source who says Communities Secretary Eric Pickles could become the next Chief Whip."
So no waiting for next year then. Has DH missed this?
Mitchell makes sense. Clegg would be an insane appointment, as I've said for ages.
Feels weird to have to wait until the afternoon for the third practice session. Not sure whether the pre-race piece will be up this evening or tomorrow morning, but the pre-qualifying piece will be up around 4.30pm, hopefully.
" I am a big fan of Tom Knox having thoroughly enjoyed all his other books. The problem for me in this one is the Cornwall part, being a native to the area, it doesn't paint the places correctly. The story is fantastic as always, but this part has been a let down as I like to have a clear picture of the setting and I know this one isn't right for instance the hospital in the story is described as being in the middle of Bodmin Moor but its not really it's just on the outskirts of the town. If you are going to use an area/ place that really exists then get it right or make up one. However, moan over if you don't know the area then the book is a cracking good read. "
I'm not sure about David Davis. His star is on the wane and it's not really the sort of position that would be likely to appeal to him, though he could always resign in protest and cause a brief fuss.
As LiaMT notes though, the tricky part for Cameron will be nominating someone sufficiently Eurosceptic enough to placate his backbenchers, party and the right-wing press (and we shouldn't underestimate that factor), while also EU-friendly enough to win approval as a commissioner.
Pulpstar - I'd make Clegg top-side of 20/1. Given Cameron's perceived patchy track record on EU referendum promises, I very much doubt he'll undermine his pledge on renegotiation by nominating an arch-Europhile as commissioner, and particularly not one from another party. Besides, the timing is wrong for three months out from the election (i.e. Feb 2015). The nomination needs to be made in the summer of 2014, close after the Euroelections, where the Tories are likely to come third and the Lib Dems quite possibly fifth. Red meat will be required.
We have now had the best part of two months of increasingly positive economic news and the tories, if anything seem to be having a dip, even as Miliband makes himself look foolish again and again. The risk of an economic recovery without the votes (per 1994-7) is real. I don't think Clegg should be packing any bags just yet.
Is Mitchell a francophone? I thought that was still fairly essential.
... David Cameron ?
Now that he's shown as being an electoral drawback to the Conservatives - not to mention the additional negative effect his chumocracy have - wouldn't it be a good way for him to leave the leadership ?
Liam Fox and Andrew Mitchell set for return as David Cameron plans double cabinet reshuffle
http://www.standard.co.uk/news/politics/liam-fox-and-andrew-mitchell-set-for-return-as-david-cameron-plans-double-cabinet-reshuffle-8649370.html
I think you are also looking for someone who has given up all hope of holding high office - and misplaced as that may be, I do not see Davis holding that view of himself....
As a Eurosceptic can still have 'European commitment" - not sure article 17(3) rules one out:
3. The Commission's term of office shall be five years.
The members of the Commission shall be chosen on the ground of their general competence and European commitment from persons whose independence is beyond doubt.
In carrying out its responsibilities, the Commission shall be completely independent. Without prejudice to Article 18(2), the members of the Commission shall neither seek nor take instructions from any Government or other institution, body, office or entity. They shall refrain from any action incompatible with their duties or the performance of their tasks.
Hague would be fine, as would Osborne, and getting rid of the latter would be good for their general election prospects.
Given that the EU (falsely) equates itself with Europe as a matter of ideology, the point stands.
Christian Matheson has been selected in City of Chester last night. He used to work in the Unite General Secretary Office and now works in the HR Department.
London shanty town - great boost for the economy though eh.
•Hillary Clinton (D) 52%
•Rand Paul (R) 37%
•Hillary Clinton (D) 53%
•Rick Santorum (R) 36%
•Joe Biden (D) 45%
•Rand Paul (R) 41%
•Joe Biden (D) 46%
•Rick Santorum (R) 39%
"A re-arrangement of the junior ministerial ranks is expected in July followed by a Cabinet reshuffle in September. There is even talk of a third reshuffle next year. The news has set off inevitable speculation about the possible winners and losers. One Whitehall source said that Eric Pickles, the Communities Secretary, was in line to become the party’s new chief whip in an attempt to restore some discipline on the Tory benches." - The Times (£)
"David Cameron has been accused of joining the "unaccountable clique of Davos men" after he attended the secretive Bilderberg group meeting at the luxury Grove hotel in Watford, a move that raised questions about his pledge to lead Britain's most transparent government. Douglas Carswell, the Tory MP who campaigns for transparency in government, said the prime minister was taking part in a "cliche fest" whose participants had helped crash the global financial system. Davos is the town in Switzerland that hosts an annual meeting of global political and business leaders." - The Guardian
You asked for suggestions about a new blog post. How about one combining the French holding up trade negotiations with the US over their entertainment industry, holding up trade negotiations with Canada over their beef industry, while doing their hardest to get an FTT in place and regulation of LIBOR moved to Paris, which would wreck our financial sector.
You could even throw in something about a military coup.
A political fight over the issue might help Cameron with the Eurosceptics -"I'm fighting to get a commissioner who will stand up for Britain" - especially if he can force his candidate through against opposition.
I don't think Cameron would openly pick a fight, but he may not be averse to one, as long as it doesn't look like he deliberately provoked it.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Romani_people_by_country
He has come on leaps and bounds since the swimming incident in Las Vegas.
And he is likely to be eclipsed as a focus of attention when the new heir arrives in July.
He is an Old Etonian too, which adds competence to eligibility.
" Imad Habid, has run Park Lane News, which is directly opposite the patch of grass occupied by the Romanians, for 21 years said: 'The council keep clearing all the boxes and everything, but today they didn't turn up so they haven't moved. At 8 o'clock they usually go to different points for begging "
" Mohammed Khan, 25, who runs a souvenir stall opposite the site said: 'They are always begging around here and approaching people who look rich and when they refuse to give them money they push them three or four times. "
If the criticism had come from a Mr Smith or a Mr Jones the PB lefties would have already made accusations of racism.
I suspect they will call the people who linked the article racist instead, or the journalist who wrote it.
Its amazing how flexible the racist smear is. Here we have a couple of London shopkeepers saying that immigrants of different colour to them are smelly beggars. But no one will call them racist (of course they probably aren't)
To me these double standards are racist.. why not treat people the same regardless of skin colour?
Wouldn't be surprised if more of these spring up all over the country.
Patients before staff ? The NHS-o-holics will be scratching their heads...
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2337682/Patients-shun-NHS-clinics-run-Polish-GPs-Cut-price-private-surgeries-doctor-seven-days-week.html
"A private doctor’s surgery run by Poles is attracting thousands of patients who have given up on the NHS.
Open seven days a week, usually until 11pm, the clinic gives half-hour appointments – three times longer than usual.
And, despite charging £70 a visit, it already has almost 6,000 Britons on its books. Customers are welcomed into the spotless and modern centre by friendly receptionists whose motto is to ‘put patients first’."
"Another British patient, who did not want to be named, said the care she received was ‘beyond comparison’ with that offered by the NHS.
She said: ‘I got an appointment when it was convenient to me and that made a huge difference straight away. I needed physiotherapy and I didn’t want to wait ages for an appointment.
‘I tried the NHS but I felt like I was getting nowhere because they kept sending me to people who said they couldn’t help me. I feel like I can trust what they tell me at My Medyk, they work to give me what I need, rather than make my need fit into a big system.’
"
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-22805748
I actually already knew this was possible, through the educational medium of videogames. The Last of Us has fungal zombies, some of whom use echo-location (the Clickers).
During 1994-7 the economy grew by 15% and was over 30% larger than it had been a decade earlier.
Unemployment fell by over a million while earnings growth was well ahead of inflation, personal debt was much lower than now while higher savings interest, a soaring stock market and building society demutualisations provided financial windfalls for millions.
Productivity growth was much higher, industrial ouput at an all time high and Britain ran a trade surplus for four consecutive years.
Is any of that going to be repeated by 2015 ?
With the possible exception of a QE fueled stock market, no.
There would be less difference between a govt run by Cameron and a govt run by Miliband than between being in or out of the EU.
If you want immigration controls, you have no option but to vote UKIP. If you want to quit the EU for other reasons, you have to vote UKIP. Why? Because the stronger the UKIP vote, the more likely you are to get what you want, however few UKIP MPs are actually elected at the next GE.
I'd add that the Conservatives will have a manifesto commitment to an EU referendum. Even if you distrust Cameron, you'd be a fool not to believe his party would happily ditch him if it meant securing a referendum.
It's good to advocate because it covers you with the BOO elements of your base without you actually needing to agree with them. But it's terrible to actually have it, because you lose either way: Either an "out" result which you don't want by definition, or a positive "in" result that risks inviting more integration that you don't want.
If a triumphant majority-winning Cameron, who would presumably have seen off UKIP in 2015, wanted to hold off on his referendum until treaty negotiations were complete, and that gradually got put off due to the fecklessness of our European cousins until it ended up being something for the third term not the second, the party probably aren't going to knife him over it.
PS. It may not actually be in the manifesto - the current official position is still weaselly.
Rory Stewart would make for a good news cycle. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rory_Stewart
If it's going to need a by-election, look for a non-MP.
Lets face it: He was a successful politician who pushed through Maastricht. And Cathy was one of Gormless's "brilliant plans". Gaijin, what is Abe putting in your water...?
Does it have to be an mp or former mp. Not Adair Turner, but someone like Adair Turner - more adept at bureaucratic politics than many mp's
Yes, I'd like to see a Belgian MEP inform Farage that he comes from a non-country (which in a sense he does) and has all the charisma of a wet rag, then ask him : "Who are you?"
:win-wine-whine:
1) Wouldn't he? He's happy enough to pocket his fat MEP salary.
2) In the eye of the beholder.
3) Let's put that to the test in a Belgian opinion poll, shall we?
Eh?
This site doesn’t want to see an independence referendum every five years. We very much hope – just as Ruth Davidson does – that only one will ever be required, though for the opposite reason. But whichever side loses the 2014 vote, they will be perfectly entitled to stand for election on a manifesto offering another one, and to implement that policy if they are democratically elected with a majority. That’s not only how democracy works, it’s how it must work. No government can bind its successors. “Stability” is every despot’s excuse...
Because it’s a punchy slogan, this site is fond of using the phrase “Vote No Get Nothing”. But the more evidence we collect, the more apparent it is that such a view is a seriously over-optimistic assessment of the reality.
If Scotland gives up its only bargaining chip next year by voting for continued Westminster rule, the powers of the Scottish Parliament – which has so ungratefully exceeded the limits of what it was meant to be permitted to achieve – will be curtailed, not extended. It won’t be one chance in 307 years. It’ll be one chance forever.
http://wingsoverscotland.com/changing-the-rules-of-the-game/
Ahem. That was kind of the point I was making, Soc. If Farage reckons Belgium is a non-country, then the UK most certainly is. (In reality of course his allegiance is to England, not the UK, which makes the irony even more acute.)
"that the UK has a common language"
No wonder the promotion of the Welsh language makes you so angry - it seems English language imperialism is at the heart of your national identity.
We don't want any more unskilled immigration. How ####ing hard is this for our leaders to understand?!?
"For Scots, their predominant identity was Scottish (34%) closely followed by British (31%)"
Not much in it, if true. Although, the vast majority of Scots have both a Scottish and a British national identity.
http://www.unlockdemocracy.org.uk/blog/entry/identity-and-constitutional-conventions
Rubbish. I have never seen you angrier than when I defended Welsh language education. In fact you were so furious you essentially informed me that I had no right to continue making the point.
"Hence there is a common language"
Have you ever been to Belgium? Blilingualism is scarcely uncommon. The reality is that there are large geographical swathes of the UK where English is not the native language.
"Indeed, the British nation has every hallmark of a nation"
Do most nations have a constituent part where the primary identity (as irrefutably demonstrated by poll after poll) is something entirely different?
East London
Geographical=LOL
Karin Smyth won Bristol South (Primarolo's seat) selection on first preferences beating Amanda Ramsay and Barbara Brown.
http://karinsmyth.com/
2) The member states wanted someone unimpressive for the foreign policy job, because they didn't want to be told what to do.
As for your latter question, I guess it means Texas isn't part of the American nation as so many Texans think of themselves as Texan first, American second. You do say silly things sometimes.
OK. If telling someone that they don't have the right to an express a view is not a sign that you were furious, and is instead just your default setting, I'd suggest you might want to reflect on your manners.
If you can find any polling evidence that Texans regard their primary NATIONAL identity as being Texan in the same way that Scots regard their primary national identity as Scottish, I might be more impressed by that wild assertion.
"You do say silly things sometimes."
Go on sticking your head in the sand. All this condescension is going to make your sense of shock, bewilderment and (it seems) loss all the more satisfying next September.
Whilst typing this I looked him up on Wikipedia - I'm absolutely amazed that on paper he's a clever man (I knew the Glasgow and BP stuff, but not the Cambridge connection).
I've not heard any rumours of such an appointment, but having suggested it here, it seems almost a formality!