I don't know about a campaign against Chelsea, but the annual campaign to help Arsenal finish top 4 continues yet again with fortune favouring them with the refs....
I don't know if this is wise, butI guess that UKIP must now show the flag everywhere.
Could harm Conservative chances in Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale & Tweeddale; Berwickshire, Roxburgh & Selkirk; West Aberdeen & Kincardine and Dumfries & Galloway.
Probably alot of lost deposits tbh, bit like the SNP running in Bexhill, UKIP running in Bellshill tbh.
I think UKIP could actually harm the SNP in a few seats, strange as it sounds. I still think it's possible that the SNP draws from the type of none-of-the-above vote that is going to UKIP elsewhere in the UK (though the SNP obviously gets votes from plenty of other people on top of the NOTA vote).
I think it is partly to do with this, from Charles Moore's piece this morning.
In recent days, I have met quite a lot of Tory grandees who feel pretty happy about the election prospects. They are excited by their party’s money power. They think the return of economic growth is doing the trick.
TSE - as the Tories are the only party that could feasibly win a majority in this election (although that is of course far from certain, do you think that if they do win a majority they will implement the Beecroft no fault dismissal legislation that the Libdems stopped them from implementing a couple of years ago?
If they are not, then I would strongly advise them to say so prominently in their manifesto, otherwise it will be assumed that they will and EICIPM may well result.
I don't know if this is wise, butI guess that UKIP must now show the flag everywhere.
I suppose they need to give their supporters the opportunity to vote UKIP to grow their support.
I would imagine that the UKIP strategy is to win a handful of seats, preferably on decent majorities, to establish themselves in parliament, and then to win second place in a lot of seats to establish themselves as the credible alternative to the incumbents in 2020.
It is obvious to anyone but a fool that some UKIP Tories will vote Conservative out of fear of Labour, but the big issue is the extent to which UKIP attract the WWC vote.
If Labour lose a big chunk of the WWC vote then they become just a somewhat more left wing version of a middle class Liberal party.
I don't know if this is wise, butI guess that UKIP must now show the flag everywhere.
Could harm Conservative chances in Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale & Tweeddale; Berwickshire, Roxburgh & Selkirk; West Aberdeen & Kincardine and Dumfries & Galloway.
Probably alot of lost deposits tbh, bit like the SNP running in Bexhill, UKIP running in Bellshill tbh.
I think UKIP could actually harm the SNP in a few seats, strange as it sounds. I still think it's possible that the SNP draws from the type of none-of-the-above vote that is going to UKIP elsewhere in the UK (though the SNP obviously gets votes from plenty of other people on top of the NOTA vote).
Hmm Maybe, but at the same time they could take a couple of "old labour" votes too. I dunno, I think their biggest impact might be preventing the Conservatives gaining Berwickshire/
"We want to re-industrialise the central belt of Scotland, which has been neglected for too long by the SNP, who are too busy worrying about wars in the middle ages, or the Jacobite rebellion."
Coburn is picking on JackW. LOL
JackW has been quiet for 2 or 3 days, I do hope he's well.
Oh come on OGH, professional punters are not a representative sample of the public, they are mostly Tories and they bet on their own party.
My advice is to subtract the seats the betting market said at this stage in 2010 with what the outcome of the 2010 election was, and then subtract the result from the seats the betting market predicts today.
Example: On this day in 2010 Tories: 345, result 306, difference +39 Labour: 220, result 258, difference -38 LD: 55, result 57, difference -2
Today Tories: average 282-39= 243 seats Labour: average 276+38= 314 seats LD: average 27+2= 29 seats
If you look at the final outcome you will see that it's close to what the polls say.
I don't know if this is wise, butI guess that UKIP must now show the flag everywhere.
Could harm Conservative chances in Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale & Tweeddale; Berwickshire, Roxburgh & Selkirk; West Aberdeen & Kincardine and Dumfries & Galloway.
Probably alot of lost deposits tbh, bit like the SNP running in Bexhill, UKIP running in Bellshill tbh.
I think UKIP could actually harm the SNP in a few seats, strange as it sounds. I still think it's possible that the SNP draws from the type of none-of-the-above vote that is going to UKIP elsewhere in the UK (though the SNP obviously gets votes from plenty of other people on top of the NOTA vote).
They should be attracting SNP voters, I don't know that they are.
From what I recall of the EU Parliament election polling, UKIP was getting crossover from Plaid voters, but only a trifling amount from SNP.
I don't know if this is wise, butI guess that UKIP must now show the flag everywhere.
I suppose they need to give their supporters the opportunity to vote UKIP to grow their support.
I would imagine that the UKIP strategy is to win a handful of seats, preferably on decent majorities, to establish themselves in parliament, and then to win second place in a lot of seats to establish themselves as the credible alternative to the incumbents in 2020.
Sure but they're standing candidates in no-hoper seats too.
They may become competitive in those seats in years to come, and the no-hoper seat UKIP supporters may evangelise/move/volunteer/donate now or in the future.
I don't know if this is wise, butI guess that UKIP must now show the flag everywhere.
Could harm Conservative chances in Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale & Tweeddale; Berwickshire, Roxburgh & Selkirk; West Aberdeen & Kincardine and Dumfries & Galloway.
Probably alot of lost deposits tbh, bit like the SNP running in Bexhill, UKIP running in Bellshill tbh.
I think UKIP could actually harm the SNP in a few seats, strange as it sounds. I still think it's possible that the SNP draws from the type of none-of-the-above vote that is going to UKIP elsewhere in the UK (though the SNP obviously gets votes from plenty of other people on top of the NOTA vote).
They should be attracting SNP voters, I don't know that they are.
From what I recall of the EU Parliament election polling, UKIP was getting crossover from Plaid voters, but only a trifling amount from SNP.
UKIP are not attracting SNP votes according to the constituency polls, however I think they did attract some SNP votes in the euro's because some SNP's that came from the Tories are anti-european.
I don't know if this is wise, butI guess that UKIP must now show the flag everywhere.
Could harm Conservative chances in Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale & Tweeddale; Berwickshire, Roxburgh & Selkirk; West Aberdeen & Kincardine and Dumfries & Galloway.
Probably alot of lost deposits tbh, bit like the SNP running in Bexhill, UKIP running in Bellshill tbh.
I think UKIP could actually harm the SNP in a few seats, strange as it sounds. I still think it's possible that the SNP draws from the type of none-of-the-above vote that is going to UKIP elsewhere in the UK (though the SNP obviously gets votes from plenty of other people on top of the NOTA vote).
They should be attracting SNP voters, I don't know that they are.
From what I recall of the EU Parliament election polling, UKIP was getting crossover from Plaid voters, but only a trifling amount from SNP.
UKIP are not attracting SNP votes according to the constituency polls, however I think they did attract some SNP votes in the euro's because some SNP's that came from the Tories are anti-european.
Hilariously, Alex Salmond's old patch in Banff & Buchan is the most Eurosceptic constituency in Scotland.
"We want to re-industrialise the central belt of Scotland, which has been neglected for too long by the SNP, who are too busy worrying about wars in the middle ages, or the Jacobite rebellion."
I wonder what he's been drinking? One could invariably tell a unionist during indyref by the fact that they were the ones going on about Bannockburn and 1314 - but the supposed SNP obsession with the Jacobite Rising [NB: not 'rebellion', that's too loaded] is a new one to me.
the scottish jacobite party (not the snp) has considerable policy overlap with ukip. if the sjp nutter runs again he might well take my vote away from ukip.
I really don't understand the continued Tory optimism. There' s been very little sign of an uptick in their poll ratings over the last year yet they continue to believe it'll be alright on the night. I cannot understand why Labour has not made more of the oil price fall. They should have got their excuses in early before the government tried to take credit for it. Perhaps it's this amateurishness that gives the Tories confidence.
Mr. Booth, could be the SNP. If they do sweep Scotland Labour will find it hard to have a majority.
If they try a deal with the SNP it either fails due to Labour backbenchers defecting or forming a party-within-a-party which disagrees with it, or it succeeds, which could have not necessarily positive electoral implications for Labour south of the border.
That said, whilst the blues stand a decent chance of getting most seats confidence of more than that is puzzling.
I don't know if this is wise, butI guess that UKIP must now show the flag everywhere.
Could harm Conservative chances in Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale & Tweeddale; Berwickshire, Roxburgh & Selkirk; West Aberdeen & Kincardine and Dumfries & Galloway.
Probably alot of lost deposits tbh, bit like the SNP running in Bexhill, UKIP running in Bellshill tbh.
I think UKIP could actually harm the SNP in a few seats, strange as it sounds. I still think it's possible that the SNP draws from the type of none-of-the-above vote that is going to UKIP elsewhere in the UK (though the SNP obviously gets votes from plenty of other people on top of the NOTA vote).
They should be attracting SNP voters, I don't know that they are.
From what I recall of the EU Parliament election polling, UKIP was getting crossover from Plaid voters, but only a trifling amount from SNP.
UKIP are not attracting SNP votes according to the constituency polls, however I think they did attract some SNP votes in the euro's because some SNP's that came from the Tories are anti-european.
Opinium Research @OpiniumResearch · 1m1 minute ago Opinium/Observer: First #Tory lead since Mar'12 - Con 35%(+2), Lab 33%(-2), Lib Dems 6%(-2),UKIP 15%(+1),Green 7%(+1) http://tinyurl.com/k387tzy
Opinium Research @OpiniumResearch · 1m1 minute ago Opinium/Observer: First #Tory lead since Mar'12 - Con 35%(+2), Lab 33%(-2), Lib Dems 6%(-2),UKIP 15%(+1),Green 7%(+1) http://tinyurl.com/k387tzy
So it's the Guardian/Observer pollsters that have the Tories doing well.
Nice for the Conservatives, but it's not a huge polling change.
Mr. Dave, something that ought to be pointed out more often. Those conflating the EU with Europe need to be slapped about the head and neck with all six volumes of Edward Gibbon's enlightenment classic The Decline And Fall of the Roman Empire until they learn the difference.
I note that one of the old liberal MPs has recently died. Lord Mackie of Benshie became Liberal MP for Caithness and Sutherland in 1964, but was beaten by Robert Maclennan in 1966. He lived to a ripe old age of 95.
Mr. Dave, something that ought to be pointed out more often. Those conflating the EU with Europe need to be slapped about the head and neck with all six volumes of Edward Gibbon's enlightenment classic The Decline And Fall of the Roman Empire until they learn the difference.
I contended months ago that only on St Valentines day or thereabouts would the elecorate start to notice an election was imminent due to the fixed term parliament removing the will he go to the queen element of speculation. Therefore until st valentine's day the electorate would use opinion polls to kick the government. Only after feb 14th would they look closely at who the next PM would be, take one look at Millipede and say 'not you mate'.
Opinium Research @OpiniumResearch · 1m1 minute ago Opinium/Observer: First #Tory lead since Mar'12 - Con 35%(+2), Lab 33%(-2), Lib Dems 6%(-2),UKIP 15%(+1),Green 7%(+1) http://tinyurl.com/k387tzy
Comments
I now have this image of Keith Al-Harris issuing death threats through a duck dressed as an Imam.
If they are not, then I would strongly advise them to say so prominently in their manifesto, otherwise it will be assumed that they will and EICIPM may well result.
It is obvious to anyone but a fool that some UKIP Tories will vote Conservative out of fear of Labour, but the big issue is the extent to which UKIP attract the WWC vote.
If Labour lose a big chunk of the WWC vote then they become just a somewhat more left wing version of a middle class Liberal party.
More German imports
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/11426868/German-anti-Islam-group-Pegida-marches-in-Britain.html
JackW has been quiet for 2 or 3 days, I do hope he's well.
My advice is to subtract the seats the betting market said at this stage in 2010 with what the outcome of the 2010 election was, and then subtract the result from the seats the betting market predicts today.
Example:
On this day in 2010
Tories: 345, result 306, difference +39
Labour: 220, result 258, difference -38
LD: 55, result 57, difference -2
Today
Tories: average 282-39= 243 seats
Labour: average 276+38= 314 seats
LD: average 27+2= 29 seats
If you look at the final outcome you will see that it's close to what the polls say.
From what I recall of the EU Parliament election polling, UKIP was getting crossover from Plaid voters, but only a trifling amount from SNP.
They may become competitive in those seats in years to come, and the no-hoper seat UKIP supporters may evangelise/move/volunteer/donate now or in the future.
https://www.pressandjournal.co.uk/fp/news/politics/westminster/380210/most-scots-want-to-stay-in-the-eu/
It is a perplexing shift.
Mr. Carnyx, I concur, some people's obsession with modern history is most bemusing.
If they try a deal with the SNP it either fails due to Labour backbenchers defecting or forming a party-within-a-party which disagrees with it, or it succeeds, which could have not necessarily positive electoral implications for Labour south of the border.
That said, whilst the blues stand a decent chance of getting most seats confidence of more than that is puzzling.
Opinium/Observer: First #Tory lead since Mar'12 - Con 35%(+2), Lab 33%(-2), Lib Dems 6%(-2),UKIP 15%(+1),Green 7%(+1) http://tinyurl.com/k387tzy
Mr. Dave, something that ought to be pointed out more often. Those conflating the EU with Europe need to be slapped about the head and neck with all six volumes of Edward Gibbon's enlightenment classic The Decline And Fall of the Roman Empire until they learn the difference.
I contended months ago that only on St Valentines day or thereabouts would the elecorate start to notice an election was imminent due to the fixed term parliament removing the will he go to the queen element of speculation. Therefore until st valentine's day the electorate would use opinion polls to kick the government. Only after feb 14th would they look closely at who the next PM would be, take one look at Millipede and say 'not you mate'.