Categories
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Just one poll in past 17 has CON lead yet Tories winning mo
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Just one poll in past 17 has CON lead yet Tories winning most seats becomes an even tighter favourite on Betfair
CON to win most seats moves to an even stronger favourite on Betfair. Now a 62% chance pic.twitter.com/Qj3KJgc8ue
0
This discussion has been closed.
Comments
But - 1. the more the Coalition and Labour try to do down Scottish MPs, denounce their involvement in government, etc. etc., the more the UK is destroyed from within by its own proponents
And 2. Remember the Survation polling this week: a clear majority of 59% want independence within (not at) 10 years (data on scotgoespop for those who want to check it).
Scottish subsamples with IPSOS and ICM both have been utterly atrocious for Labour.
Someone gave me a badge last week 'I've never kissed a Tory'
Lab Votes, Lab Seats Lab Votes, Con Seats Con Votes, Lab seats Con Seats, Con votes
60.59 346.28 214.87 65.61
17 bets at 8 bookies.
Sorry, too obvious.
Plymouth Sutton & Devonport(15,050/13,901/10,829)
Newport East(7,918/12,744/11,094)
Ealing Central & Acton(17,944/14,228/13,041)
Bridgend (11,668/13,931/8,658)
Bradford East (10,860/13,272/13,637)
All look interesting from the point of view of where a LD collapse might go.
http://kateosamor.co.uk/
But there are a lot of undecideds in the polls, and I cannot see them going heavily for Ed and Ed. I think we are still in the phoney war.
BTW has Balls promised to remit some of existing student debt, or does his fee cut only apply to new students. Foxinsoxuk jr will be very annoyed if he has to pay but new students do not, and he is in a marginal...
http://rationalwiki.org/wiki/Nsnbc.me
What the FTPA has mostly done is given the media a time frame to plan their coverage (and arguably schedule their leaks and hatch jobs). I think in their excitement a lot of newspapers and broadcasters have shot their load before the public have even got interested.
There wasn't enough room on the badge for money obsessed petty socio-path.
In any case, I was merely speculating as to why there would be a large movement in Con most seats while the rest of the market is static.
Telephone polls show a lower UKIP score than online, and a stronger Conservative performance relative to Labour. And, ICM probably carries a lot of weight among punters.
Con 266
Lab 275
SNP 56
Lib Dem 26
http://electionsetc.com/ assumes some swingback I'm guessing and is
Con 281
Lab 282
SNP 40
Lib Dem 23
http://electionsetc.com/
Con 282
Lab 280
SNP 40
LD 25
I am a humour transplant specialist, but even with modern science some people are beyond help.
Polls since the Referendum give the SNP lead trail as : -
2%, 29%, 16%, 17%, 22%, 20%, 24%, 17%, 10%, 20%, 28%, 10%, 21%, 17%.
Most of those predict well over 35 seats, all I am saying is there is room for the market to adjust the SNP upwards.
Or was that panelbase
I slightly think like that myself.
But those answering the pollsters or answering online WILL have thought about it and are clearly favouring Labour. So I'm not sure why the confidence that they'll change
The wiki polling collation is very handy.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2015_United_Kingdom_general_election
To summarise
If your index finger is longer than your ring finger, there is a higher than average chance you will be grumpy, gay, poor and/or ugly, with a short penis. But, on the bright side, you will have a much lower than average chance of developing prostate cancer.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/men/the-filter/11424695/Polite-promiscuous...-gay-What-does-your-ring-finger-say-about-you.html
http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/archives/9049
THE AVERAGE BETFAIR PUNTER IS CLUELESS.
The Case For the Tories
ICM phone - 4 point Tory lead
Comres phone - 1 point Tory lead
Ashcroft phone - Tories level or leading by up to 6 in all polls bar one in 2015
Ipsos phone - leading on all VI in three of the last four, and level on 8/10 and 9/10 in the latest
Survation online - one point lead
The Case for Labour
Populus online - continual leads, though now at lowest VI level since 5/5/10
Yougov online - regular leads
Comres online - 2 point lead
Opinium online - 2 point lead
TNS - bears no resemblance to any others
Viewed as pollsters, rather than volume of polls, it's splitting fairly evenly.
You fancy a bet on the nags today?
It's a busy day for me, but I'd say the pick of my selections is Handsupfordetroit in the 4.10 at Chepstow. Some 7/1 around - not quite Sunny Jim territory, but not bad.
Check your inbox to see what I got matched.
"If your index finger is longer than your ring finger, there is a higher than average chance you will be grumpy, gay, poor and/or ugly, with a short penis. But, on the bright side, you will have a much lower than average chance of developing prostate cancer. "
They're trying to get their own back on Oborne with some solid research
If voters don't consider Con/Lab majority likely, their opponents can't peddle bogeyman scenarios to move voters from UKIP/Green etc.
- Ed Miliband being poorly regarded both in general and by current Labour voters.
- Potential swingback from UKIP to Con.
- Potential swingback from Lab to LD (or secondary swing from ex-LDs to Green or elsewhere via Labour).
- Incumbency benefits both at national and local levels (though the polling suggests this is minor for the Tories).
- Con gains from the Lib Dems (probably not many but every one raises Labour's bar).
- SNP gains from Labour, increasing further the number of seats to be gained as an offset.
- The economy undermining virtually every one of Labour's critiques.
- Ed Balls.
- Labour's own vulnerability on the NHS (Stafford, Wales etc), which may derail that attack line.
- The international situation increasing the risk of the untried and untested.
- The relatively narrow polls at the moment and Labour's southwards trajectory of the last three years.
Now, there are arguments to be put the other way and as I say, I think the market's moved too far here, but each of the above makes it harder for Labour to achieve their aim.
Even The Telegraph would blush at that interpretation of the facts
Case for the Tories
ICM phone - 4 point Tory lead
Comres phone - 1 point Tory lead
Ashcroft phone - Tories level or leading by up to 6 in all polls bar one in 2015
Ipsos phone - leading on all VI in three of the last four, and level on 8/10 and 9/10 in the latest
Survation online - one point lead
The Case for Labour
Populus online - continual leads, though now at lowest VI level since 5/5/10
Yougov online - regular leads
Comres online - 2 point lead
Opinium online - 2 point lead
TNS - bears no resemblance to any others
Viewed as pollsters, rather than volume of polls, it's splitting fairly evenly.
Personally I trust the BBC more than most other news outlets. The fact that they get about equal flak from the Tories and Labour and are accused of bias from both strengthens that trust.
I think that we are lucky to have the BBC, we could have Fox News (so called because it does).
Hopefully he's been putting in groundwork in his constituency...
Oct 2012: 42.4
Jan 2013: 40.9
Apr 2013: 38.4
Jul 2013: 38.2
Oct 2013: 37.2
Jan 2014: 36.6
Apr 2014: 36.5
Jul 2014: 34.7
Oct 2014: 33.2
Jan 2015: 32.6
In the same period, the Tories have gone from 32.6 to 31.5, the Lib Dems from 10.5 to 8.0, and UKIP from 6.8 to 14.5. I don't yet have the figures for the Greens for 2012 but their Jan 2013 score was 2.8 compared with last month's 7.3.
In recent days, I have met quite a lot of Tory grandees who feel pretty happy about the election prospects. They are excited by their party’s money power. They think the return of economic growth is doing the trick.
http://fw.to/0ayZL9
Will this respective optimism and pessimism be vindicated on the big day? Who knows but one thing I would be pretty confident of is that if there is no change in the polling by early March there will be a major wobble and trading opportunities.
Of course you may well yet be proved right.
http://www.thetimes.co.uk/tto/news/
Times front page - ''Labour plans pension raid to fund lower student fees''
Nothing changes
I'm sorry but a lot of the 'below the line' comments on News sites would be in green ink if they were written.
Fast forward 6 months and the swingback has not happened to anything like the anticipated extent and the model now predicts a tiny Labour lead, really a draw.
The assumption of the markets is that the Tories are going to suddenly catch up with where they should have been. It seems to me that it is every bit as likely we will see more of the same: a small drift to the Tories but probably not enough to allow them to remain the largest party despite the catastrophe in Scotland which is surely the only thing that makes this open to question.
Having grown up with the Hollywood ideology of the movies (work hard to get along, anyone can make it, the power of the individual, good triumphs over evil in the end) it was fascinating to see an action blockbuster written to a different set of rules - the importance of an ethnically diverse community to pull together - the danger of infighting, the perils of a foreign outsider and how you ignore the peacekeeper at your peril - fascinating stuff!
why should anyone want to lay a Tory ?
"Having grown up with the Hollywood ideology of the movies (work hard to get along, anyone can make it, the power of the individual, good triumphs over evil in the end) it was fascinating to see an action blockbuster written to a different set of rules - the importance of an ethnically diverse community to pull together - the danger of infighting, the perils of a foreign outsider and how you ignore the peacekeeper at your peril - fascinating stuff!"
One of the great pleasures of foreign cinema. I try to watch at least as many non American films as American ones and they are usually much more involving. And sometimes from surprising countries. Iran for example has made some really interesting films
RT on the other hand fully exposes the shelling of the Donbass region and the terrible suffering there, the neo-Nazi elements in their Government, the evidence suggesting Ukrainian complicity in the plane downing etc., but of course doesn't cover anything that would indicate Russian involvement. Therefore the Russians believe their version of events.
Both media outlets are propagandising by omission. And you cannot get a clear picture of what is happening by reading one and not the other. It's a very serious matter, because such propaganda is highly dangerous in terms of bringing us to conflict with a massive military power. Since we all know what the MSM take is on this, and we get how evil Putin is on the front page of every newspaper every day, it behoves us to read what the other side are saying.
Although a lot of shrewd gamblers I know think there is value in Lucky 15s and Yankees
Cash outers are quite good bookie buddies too
I don't know if this is wise, butI guess that UKIP must now show the flag everywhere.
Probably alot of lost deposits tbh, bit like the SNP running in Bexhill, UKIP running in Bellshill tbh.
"Burqa Beauties is my favourite, though A First full of Fatwas runs it close"
I think you mean 'A fist Full of Fatwas'. or was it 'Fisting in Fatwas'
Either way it made me laugh out very loud!!!
Mr Coburn said...
"We want to re-industrialise the central belt of Scotland, which has been neglected for too long by the SNP, who are too busy worrying about wars in the middle ages, or the Jacobite rebellion."