There are almost no seats where Con, Lab and LD all have an obvious chance - Cambridge and, er...?
Brecon?
Or a Labour win in Brecon.
Don't know anything about Cambridge, but I wouldn't be so quick to write off all chances of a Labour win in Brecon. About one-third of Roger Williams' vote is tactical. If that unwinds there will be three parties on around 10,000 votes each, as was the case in the late 80s/early 90s.
I agree it's unlikely given Williams is standing again and is personally popular, but it's not unrealistic.
PtP..I selected Budapest as best film for BAFTA..It stands a good chance for the Oscars but the yanks do tend to support their own products...altho Budapest is stuffed full of top line American actors.
I think we may see tactical voting on the right: Many who would love to vote UKIP but as GE2015 is so close and they don't want Labour or more so Miliband will vote Con to play safe.
Secondly I can see two forms of TV in Scotland: The obvious one of backing unionist candidate against SNP or Green and The truly tactical one of centre right voters delighted for once they may not have to suffer a Labour MP, voting SNP to keep out Labour knowing full well independence has gone for 10 years anyway.
If SNP wins 40+ seats and holds the balance of power, "independence has gone for 10 years anyway" ?
I found it extraordinary. It's serious competitors Budapest Hotel and Birdman will give it a run for its money but the uniqueness of Boyhood should see it through. I tipped it fwhen it first came out nearly a year ago
MD. I wouldn't. I'd bet your whole patch of the West Riding on them however short the odds
erm... there's been a big move this morning in Betfair's most seats, Tories in sharply and Labour out big time...
anyone know why?
Don't tell OGH.....
I just noticed that too. Poll out there somewhere?
Otoh, none of the related markets - NOM, Next PM, Spreads etc - have moved in sync.
Odd.
Scottish polling would be logical for that.
That was my first thought, although most punters will have factored in by now good results for the SNP.
Dunno I just backed the spare Con Seats, Con votes in the electoral bias (I have enough green to play around with on Lab votes, Con seats) at 1.77 (Some a smidgen higher) and laid off some Con seats at 1.62 in the main market. I think that makes money, even with the 10% commission.
There's also the suggestion that we use lawyers instead of rats to test experimental drugs. Why? Because there's more of them, and and some people quite like rats.
I find it bizarre that UKIP supporters favour Putin. Maybe they should read this. Events since the article was published 3 weeks ago have shown how right it is. http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/b050674y
To answer Dispatches' question, I give them the USA, whose first stirring of rebellion (The Boston Tea Party) was an act of deception. To bring us right up to date, here's the USA special forces manual on indirect warfare: https://nsnbc.files.wordpress.com/2011/10/special-forces-uw-tc-18-01.pdf
1-1.The intent of U.S. UW efforts is to exploit a hostile power’s political, military, economic, and psychological vulnerabilities by developing and sustaining resistance forces to accomplish U.S. strategic objectives. Historically, the military concept for the employment of UW was primarily in support of resistance movements during general-war scenarios. While this concept remains valid, the operational environment since the end of World War II has increasingly required U.S. forces to conduct UW in scenarios short of general war (limited war).
1-2.Enabling a resistance movement or insurgency entails the development of an underground and guerrilla forces, as well as supporting auxiliaries for each of these elements. Resistance movements or insurgencies always have an underground element. The armed component of these groups is the guerrilla force and is only present if the resistance transitions to conflict. The combined effects of two interrelated lines of effort largely generate the end result of a UW campaign. The efforts are armed conflict and subversion. Forces conduct armed conflict, normally in the form of guerrilla warfare, against the security apparatus of the host nation (HN) or occupying military. Conflict also includes operations that attack and degrade enemy morale, organizational cohesion, and operational effectiveness and separate the enemy from the population. Over time, these attacks degrade the ability of the HN or occupying military to project military power and exert control over the population. Subversion undermines the power of the government or occupying element by portraying it as incapable of effective governance to the population
GBH might win the most awards because of Wes Anderson's artistry but best film and director I don't think so. In fact it's not even my favourite Wes Anderson film though certainly the biggest
OT. My Oscar favourites in the top six categories. Some will be very short odds because they're certainties. However these are my picks. NB All the films are well worth seeing and most are on in lots of cinemas for a very short run. (PS Anna Pinnock should win Best Production Design for Grand Budapest Hotel but I can't find a bookmaker who'll take the bet) Best Film- Boyhood (Boyhood) Best Director-Richard Linklater (Boyhood Best Actor-Eddie Redmayne (Theory of Everything) Best Actress-Julianne Moore (Still Alice) Best Supporting Actress-Patricia Arquette (Boyhood) Best Supporting Actor-JK Simmons (Whiplash)
Roger, thanks you understand this better than most. I found Boyhood a big disappointment as it just stumbled along (like real life). Interesting to see the visual changes to the actors, but otherwise unremarkable.....a bit like a Mike Leigh film. Which is why I will not use my own judgement!
Yes, hard to believe that is best film of the year it was overlong and pretty tedious
Comments
There's Plaid, Greens and UKIP as well.
And I do not get the impression that EdM is the man to inspire rural Wales.
I found it extraordinary. It's serious competitors Budapest Hotel and Birdman will give it a run for its money but the uniqueness of Boyhood should see it through. I tipped it fwhen it first came out nearly a year ago
MD. I wouldn't. I'd bet your whole patch of the West Riding on them however short the odds
There's also the suggestion that we use lawyers instead of rats to test experimental drugs. Why? Because there's more of them, and and some people quite like rats.
https://nsnbc.files.wordpress.com/2011/10/special-forces-uw-tc-18-01.pdf
1-1.The intent of U.S. UW efforts is to exploit a hostile power’s political, military, economic, and psychological vulnerabilities by developing and sustaining resistance forces to accomplish U.S. strategic objectives. Historically, the military concept for the employment of UW was primarily in support of resistance movements during general-war scenarios. While this concept remains valid, the operational environment since the end of World War II has increasingly required U.S. forces to conduct UW in scenarios short of general war (limited war).
1-2.Enabling a resistance movement or insurgency entails the development of an underground and guerrilla forces, as well as supporting auxiliaries for each of these elements. Resistance movements or insurgencies always have an underground element. The armed component of these groups is the guerrilla force and is only present if the resistance transitions to conflict. The combined effects of two interrelated lines of effort largely generate the end result of a UW campaign. The efforts are armed conflict and subversion. Forces conduct armed conflict, normally in the form of guerrilla warfare, against the security apparatus of the host nation (HN) or occupying military. Conflict also includes operations that attack and degrade enemy morale, organizational cohesion, and operational effectiveness and separate the enemy from the population. Over time, these attacks degrade the ability of the HN or occupying military to project military power and exert control over the population. Subversion undermines the power of the government or occupying element by portraying it as incapable of effective governance to the population
GBH might win the most awards because of Wes Anderson's artistry but best film and director I don't think so. In fact it's not even my favourite Wes Anderson film though certainly the biggest
#Syrian forces execute 10 children of alleged rebels: monitor
►►http://i24ne.ws/JqPwQ
Arab muslims in the Middle East: all the same as each other, out of control and bent on destruction.