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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Survation finds its smallest SNP lead over LAB in Scotland

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  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,916
    Newsnight Index also interesting on election forecasts
  • Roger said:

    Yet more evidence of the Telegraphs decline. They apparently interviewed Scottsh Labour MP's with small majorities who said they were facing wipe out thanks to Miliband. Frankly I have good reason to suppose the story was either exaggerated or possibly invented. No one was mentioned by name apparently because they wanted to remain anonymous

    A thin story at best. Since when have MPs on the brink been so terrified of their leaders that precisely none will go on the record?
  • DairDair Posts: 6,108
    edited February 2015

    TGOHF said:

    Dair said:

    Smarmeron said:

    @Danny565
    Desperation mainly, that and an inability for the Labour party to remember what "socialism" means.
    (In truth, few in the SNP grasp it either, but it is a handy vehicle for them to ride )

    Perhaps Ed should be replaced by the Archbishop of Canterbury. He knows what socialism is as do the rest of his lefty mates in the archbishopocracy./
    I'm sure Scotland no more wants an Established church today (especially an Anglican one) than it did in 1633 when it kicked off the War of the Three Kingdoms.
    It needs less church all round - particularly in arpartheid Romanist schools.
    Correct. The entire concept of the state funding schools to brainwash separatism into children is premier league bonkers.
    Until Scottish Labour are either completely destroyed or stop being the political wing of the Catholic Church it is political poison as it';s far too easy for Labour to hurt opponents with large swathes of the population in parts of the country.

    I would not doubt for one second that there isn't overwhelming support to end Apartheid within the ranks of the SNP, Tories and Liberals. But it can't happen while Labour could use it in the way they would
  • Pulpstar said:

    If Labour are tanking in Scotland yet somehow Miliband manages more votes than Dave... that is horrific for Conservative seat prospects in E&W. Utterly awful.

    Did you reflect this awfulness in your competition entry earlier? Oh no, I see in fact you have the Tories winning more seats than Labour
    It was a clever ruse by Mike to keep PBers honest – I also have that outcome although as you will see its essentially a statistical tie in my particular case :)
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,411
    Personally I'd like Miliband to become the 2015 Ramsey McDonald.

    The 1924 Ramsey McDonald that is... with the SNP playing the Liberal support role.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,411
    Con Majority by 2016 :)
  • Dair said:

    TGOHF said:

    Dair said:

    Smarmeron said:

    @Danny565
    Desperation mainly, that and an inability for the Labour party to remember what "socialism" means.
    (In truth, few in the SNP grasp it either, but it is a handy vehicle for them to ride )

    Perhaps Ed should be replaced by the Archbishop of Canterbury. He knows what socialism is as do the rest of his lefty mates in the archbishopocracy./
    I'm sure Scotland no more wants an Established church today (especially an Anglican one) than it did in 1633 when it kicked off the War of the Three Kingdoms.
    It needs less church all round - particularly in arpartheid Romanist schools.
    Correct. The entire concept of the state funding schools to brainwash separatism into children is premier league bonkers.
    Until Scottish Labour are either completely destroyed or stop being the political wing of the Catholic Church it is political poison as it';s far too easy for Labour to hurt opponents with large swathes of the population in parts of the country.

    I would not doubt for one second that there isn't overwhelming support to end Apartheid within the ranks of the SNP, Tories and Liberals. But it can't happen while Labour could use it in the way they would
    Perhaps so. To be honest I'd abolish all state-funded faith schools north and south of the border, regardless of what political advantage it gave to this party or that.
  • philiphphiliph Posts: 4,704

    philiph said:

    Utterly depressing goings on at the Telegraph. One of the nation's great papers has sold its soul to the Devil.

    It ceased to be a great paper several years ago, in my opinion.
    Perhaps.

    I rate Max Hastings book – Editor. I loved his line that the Telegraph, Guardian and Times try their level best to ensure their stories are based in fact, whereas those in the Sun, Star and Mirror are often – voluntarily – works of sheer fiction.

    But when you hear that the Telegraph upgraded a children's film from the actual reviewer's two stars to the commercial team's preferred three, you wonder whether times may have changed...
    With the possible exception of the expenses expose (can't do accents on an e) they have made very little impression.

    They used to be a forum for thought, discussion, right to mid right leaning with the odd view from the left for balance.

    They lost most of the balance, thought and intellect long ago. Now they are shrill for whatever they they wish to promulgate.
  • DairDair Posts: 6,108

    Dair said:

    TGOHF said:

    Dair said:

    Smarmeron said:

    @Danny565
    Desperation mainly, that and an inability for the Labour party to remember what "socialism" means.
    (In truth, few in the SNP grasp it either, but it is a handy vehicle for them to ride )

    Perhaps Ed should be replaced by the Archbishop of Canterbury. He knows what socialism is as do the rest of his lefty mates in the archbishopocracy./
    I'm sure Scotland no more wants an Established church today (especially an Anglican one) than it did in 1633 when it kicked off the War of the Three Kingdoms.
    It needs less church all round - particularly in arpartheid Romanist schools.
    Correct. The entire concept of the state funding schools to brainwash separatism into children is premier league bonkers.
    Until Scottish Labour are either completely destroyed or stop being the political wing of the Catholic Church it is political poison as it';s far too easy for Labour to hurt opponents with large swathes of the population in parts of the country.

    I would not doubt for one second that there isn't overwhelming support to end Apartheid within the ranks of the SNP, Tories and Liberals. But it can't happen while Labour could use it in the way they would
    Perhaps so. To be honest I'd abolish all state-funded faith schools north and south of the border, regardless of what political advantage it gave to this party or that.
    Yes but it is far more complicated in Scotland because there is not a single church (historically) and the purported reason for catholic schooling was because of genuine discrimination in the late 19th century. It is the root of all social problems in West Central Scotland which makes it the root of all social problems in Scotland.

    Scottish Labour is a catholic party, it is determined to protect the apartheid system in Scotland because the apartheid system makes Catholics the largest faith based group in Scotland, Apartheid creates Catholics while non-denominational schools do not create adults of other religions.

    The problem is that the belief in apartheid amongst Catholics is so strong that it would seriously harm any party which stood to change the system. The SNP will not tackle it before independence, the Liberals don't care because they don't exist in West Central Scotland and the Tories would be best placed to tackle it but refuse.
  • SmarmeronSmarmeron Posts: 5,099
    If journalism loses its conscience, one of the pillars of our state collapses.
  • "You don't have permission to access /wp-content/uploads/2015/02/ on this server."

    How disappointing.
  • TheWatcherTheWatcher Posts: 5,262
    Smarmeron said:

    If journalism loses its conscience, one of the pillars of our state collapses.

    The Mirror clearly lost it's conscience when it hacked more 'phones than the others. Nothing collapsed.
  • DairDair Posts: 6,108
    This is Cumnock. A rock solid Labour part of the "safe" Labour seat of Ayr, Carrock and Cumnock, formerly the Lord Foulkes ultra-safe Carrick Cumnock and Doon Valley.

    https://pbs.twimg.com/media/B-KbMG4IUAAg5wm.jpg

    Looks to be about 3 or 4 hundred there. That's about 3% of the entire community at the SNP rally.
  • SmarmeronSmarmeron Posts: 5,099
    @TheWatcher
    I wouldn't know, I haven't read or cared about it in years, how many phones did they hack?
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,411

    "You don't have permission to access /wp-content/uploads/2015/02/ on this server."

    How disappointing.

    Ashcroft's locked his back door this time :) ?
  • JPJ2JPJ2 Posts: 380
    Mike Smithson:

    " One seat projection from tonight’s figures has it that LAB would still be hold about half of the 41 seats it won at GE10 in Scotland"

    I see that projection is simply the spin from the Daily Record whose purpose is to try and convince Scots that they must vote Labour to keep out the Tories and that their cause is not hopelessly lost.

    I consider it vanishingly unlikely that a result of SNP 45 SLAB 28 would leave SLAB with as many as 21 seats.

    Disappointed, but hardly surprised, that Mike Smithson does not take the Record to task for this perverted use of their opinion poll.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,411
    JPJ2 said:

    Mike Smithson:

    " One seat projection from tonight’s figures has it that LAB would still be hold about half of the 41 seats it won at GE10 in Scotland"

    I see that projection is simply the spin from the Daily Record whose purpose is to try and convince Scots that they must vote Labour to keep out the Tories and that their cause is not hopelessly lost.

    I consider it vanishingly unlikely that a result of SNP 45 SLAB 28 would leave SLAB with as many as 21 seats.

    Disappointed, but hardly surprised, that Mike Smithson does not take the Record to task for this perverted use of their opinion poll.

    The Daily Slabour
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    Well now most observations agree to my original thinking of the SNP having 47 seats in May.
    Scotland might determine if Labour gets a majority, however Labour are not very far from it anyway, they are about 20 seats short.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,041

    Dair said:

    The headline is bizarre. This just confirms what we've seen in every other Scotland poll - there are no changes beyond MoE between the same companies polls since the start of Novembver.

    That is why I show the trend chart. Each step maybe MOE but it is in one direction.



    You sure it isn't in the MOE of the MOE...? *titters*

  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,916
    Bobajob Religious state schools tend to be better than average, if parents want to send their children to them then I see no reason why they should not
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,411
    Anyone else watching "Party Games" ?
  • FlightpathFlightpath Posts: 4,012
    Smarmeron said:

    If journalism loses its conscience, one of the pillars of our state collapses.

    If newspapers stand for anything it is self interest. And newspapers pay journalists who write rubbish very much like ''If journalism loses its conscience, one of the pillars of our state collapses''
  • philiphphiliph Posts: 4,704
    Smarmeron said:

    If journalism loses its conscience, one of the pillars of our state collapses.

    A large part of it in the traditional (Paper, TV Radio) press went long ago.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,411
    I see UKIP are running against Peter Bone :D

  • FlightpathFlightpath Posts: 4,012
    philiph --- ''With the possible exception of the expenses expose (can't do accents on an e) they have made very little impression.''

    Their 'journalism' there was of the basest tabloid type.
  • SmarmeronSmarmeron Posts: 5,099
    @Flightpath
    Yes, self interest indeed, but once that becomes obvious, it tends to want to put naked women on page three, and peddle soft porn.
    Titillating, but as Al Murray used to say (after a discordant vintage car horn) NOT NEWS!
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    Pulpstar said:

    I see UKIP are running against Peter Bone :D

    UKIP wont win but they will slash his majority by half at least.
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    Pulpstar said:

    Anyone else watching "Party Games" ?

    What channel?
  • fitalassfitalass Posts: 4,320
    "Survation finds its smallest SNP lead over LAB in Scotland since the IndyRef"

    Is anyone really surprised at this news ?
  • fitalassfitalass Posts: 4,320
    @Pulpster, did you catch my reply on last nights thread, I didn't see your query until later?
    Pulpstar said:

    I see UKIP are running against Peter Bone :D

  • YouGov

    Labour lead by two: CON 32%, LAB 34%, LD 8%, UKIP 14%, GRN 6%

    ICM = outlier
  • SmarmeronSmarmeron Posts: 5,099
    @Sunil_Prasannan
    Out-right liar?
    (no offence to innocent pollsters meant)
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    The Tories expect to be the only one of the three major pro-UK parties in Scotland to maintain their share of the vote in May, possibly winning one or two extra seats after more than a decade with just one Scottish MP. They believe that a collapse in support for the Lib Dems puts several rural seats within touching distance, and they expect to become Scotland’s third largest party by share of the vote.
    http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2015/feb/19/snp-surge-david-cameron-labour-margaret-curran
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,041

    YouGov

    Labour lead by two: CON 32%, LAB 34%, LD 8%, UKIP 14%, GRN 6%

    ICM = outlier
    ICM = diamond standard. All others = outlier.

    ;)
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,041
    Scott_P said:

    The Tories expect to be the only one of the three major pro-UK parties in Scotland to maintain their share of the vote in May, possibly winning one or two extra seats after more than a decade with just one Scottish MP. They believe that a collapse in support for the Lib Dems puts several rural seats within touching distance, and they expect to become Scotland’s third largest party by share of the vote.
    http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2015/feb/19/snp-surge-david-cameron-labour-margaret-curran

    Scottish Tory Surge Alert!
  • SmarmeronSmarmeron Posts: 5,099
    @RobD
    Diamond standard = You can see right through it.
    :)
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 52,133
    edited February 2015
    Were Peter Bone and Sven-Goran Eriksson separated at birth? :)

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/staticarchive/484a042ae97745655a082ac6cc9919fd0af7d90e.jpg
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,041
    Smarmeron said:

    @RobD
    Diamond standard = You can see right through it.
    :)

    But it don't half look shiny ;)
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,411
    fitalass said:

    @Pulpster, did you catch my reply on last nights thread, I didn't see your query until later?

    Pulpstar said:

    I see UKIP are running against Peter Bone :D

    Just seen it - a true 3 way marginal :)
  • SmarmeronSmarmeron Posts: 5,099
    @RobD
    "But it don't half look shiny"
    That's because it is multi faceted.
    (is this punning to the death, or first blood?)
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,041
    Smarmeron said:

    @RobD
    "But it don't half look shiny"
    That's because it is multi faceted.
    (is this punning to the death, or first blood?)

    Well you could have said it was because it had been significantly polished, implying an exaggeration of the blue score, hah.
  • SmarmeronSmarmeron Posts: 5,099
    @RobD
    But all that polish and cutting is only there to hide the flaws?
  • fitalassfitalass Posts: 4,320
    edited February 2015
    ;) Indeed, and the GE result in this seat and the neighbouring one of Gordon will be decided by the areas of previously rock solid Libdems that run along the border of the two constituencies.
    Pulpstar said:

    fitalass said:

    @Pulpster, did you catch my reply on last nights thread, I didn't see your query until later?

    Pulpstar said:

    I see UKIP are running against Peter Bone :D

    Just seen it - a true 3 way marginal :)
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,411
    fitalass said:

    ;) Indeed, and the GE result in this seat and the neighbouring one of Gordon will be decided by the areas of previously rock solid Libdems that run along the border of the two constituencies.


    Pulpstar said:

    fitalass said:

    @Pulpster, did you catch my reply on last nights thread, I didn't see your query until later?

    Pulpstar said:

    I see UKIP are running against Peter Bone :D

    Just seen it - a true 3 way marginal :)
    Scottish Lib Dem vote looks err... shaky ;)

    I reckon Carmichael will hold on by 10 or so % though.
  • Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091

    Were Peter Bone and Sven-Goran Eriksson separated at birth? :)

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/staticarchive/484a042ae97745655a082ac6cc9919fd0af7d90e.jpg

    Peter Bone has always reminded me of the Demon Headmaster

    http://images.wikia.com/villains/images/6/68/Headmaster.png
  • RobD said:

    Smarmeron said:

    @RobD
    "But it don't half look shiny"
    That's because it is multi faceted.
    (is this punning to the death, or first blood?)

    Well you could have said it was because it had been significantly polished, implying an exaggeration of the blue score, hah.
    Sunil means blue, can also mean diamond :)
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,041
    Smarmeron said:

    @RobD
    But all that polish and cutting is only there to hide the flaws?

    Otherwise known as weighting... *titters*
  • RobD said:

    Smarmeron said:

    @RobD
    "But it don't half look shiny"
    That's because it is multi faceted.
    (is this punning to the death, or first blood?)

    Well you could have said it was because it had been significantly polished, implying an exaggeration of the blue score, hah.
    Sunil means blue, can also mean diamond :)
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7WACF8ID-To


    surprisingly moody, modey even?
This discussion has been closed.