Categories
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Survation finds its smallest SNP lead over LAB in Scotland
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Survation finds its smallest SNP lead over LAB in Scotland since the IndyRef
SNP lead over LAB in Scotland drops again according to latest Survation/ D Record poll pic.twitter.com/DUrUF48btF
0
This discussion has been closed.
Comments
Despite the unpopularity of the Tories, Scots would rather have David Cameron in the top job than Miliband.
Nineteen per cent think Miliband would make the best Prime Minister, compared to 23 per cent for Cameron, six per cent for UKIP’s Nigel Farage and five per cent for Nick Clegg.
Even among Labour supporters, only 46 per cent think Miliband would be the best PM.
The Lib Dems would lose all but one of their 11 Scots MPs and the Tories would keep their solitary Scottish MP.
So by my reckoning
Lab minus 31, SNP plus 41, LD minus 10, Con no change
If that maintains, Labour will only be beaten not smashed come May.
Lab most seats 2.42 Betfair
http://survation.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/02/Record-Tables-Feb-2015.pdf
SNP 47 Seats
Labour 12 seats
If Jim Murphy has any sense Ed will not be allowed over the border in the election. The man is an embarrassment.
URL gives you an idea
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/ed-miliband/11413557/Scottish-Labour-MPs-threaten-to-bar-Ed-Miliband-from-campaigning-in-their-seats.html
The rounded numbers flatter Labour a bit - to one decimal place the gap is 17.7%.
Desperation mainly, that and an inability for the Labour party to remember what "socialism" means.
(In truth, few in the SNP grasp it either, but it is a handy vehicle for them to ride )
Scottish results could cost Ed Miliband chance to form UK Government, according to new poll
http://www.dailyrecord.co.uk/news/politics/scottish-results-could-cost-ed-5187607
No MT riots in Scotland
EdM will underperform Brown handily, that's quite clear to me.
Yougov - 43/47/48 vs 27/27/27
Ipsos MORI - 52/52 vs 23/24
Survation 46/48/46/45 vs 24/24/26/28
Panelbase obviously has the problem with the misleading question sequence and TNS and ICM only have one poll each.
I don't see any positive for Labour here and I really don't see a justification for the headline.
Labour supporters will be minimally encouraged.
It seems like if people get mad about a headline saying 'Labour lead' if there is a labour lead, because they feel statistically the average of polls show it is a dead heat or something, which may well be appropriate to add, but the headline would still be correct unless it contains a subjective judgement.
With the SNP in charge in Edinburgh I would have thought its going to be hard for Labour to eat into that public sector vote in any major way......
Religion and socialism have the same roots and aims, the difference is in the existence or otherwise of a deity.
The socialists have Marx of course, but that too branches into many different observances and schisms.
Almost as bad as typing agree with Mirror!
Turning into a 2-horse race Cons vs Lab.
Meanwhile was interested in something an acquaintance put on fb today. He's v much left-leaning & not sure if he's ever voted tory:
'Terrible day for us floating voters. Unemployment down again, inflation at record low level, wages rising fastest for 5 years. Hard to hate Tories.
Still thinking of voting green, but dithering.'
Labour have been defying gravity in Scotland for too long. They have not deserved their pre-eminence in the first place. We are witnessing their fall, even if it ends up less than predicted. But it is to an even more left wing party. Scots not wanting far-leftwingery will have to get their skates on.
BTW, the SNP only recently gained any traction in Edinburgh and that was entirely due to the Liberals and Labour proving themselves unfit for public office. It's still a fresh memory.
but its all par for course isn't it?
No, it evolved out of a need for humans to co-operate in an ever more complex set of circumstances.
The church should minister spiritually.. period.
Perhaps Miliband won't do better than 29.7%, with the added inefficiency of many fewer seats per vote due to losses in Scotland?
If the polls have Labour at 32, it's very possible that he's sub 30 in reality.
Clicking 'Labour' on the web isn't the same as going to a polling booth.
I suppose it's a teensy bit more credible* than constructing a narrative around the accents of the pollster's interrogators.
Only a teensy bit mind.
*tr: slightly less a load of old bollox.
Labour lead by two: CON 32%, LAB 34%, LD 8%, UKIP 14%, GRN 6%
Perhaps the new hegemony will finally allow this nonsense to end. I doubt the SNP will do it before FFA at least, more likely they will long grass it until after Independence.
I cannot begin to explain how irked I am by the bishops letter interfering in political matters.
Their protestations of impartiality are a clear case of dissembling.
As opposed to the wide open heat it's been for the last century?
Albeit Green/Lib Dem
Purseybear Par for the course with the Anglican Church, but Welby is far less of a leftie than Williams or Runcie were, albeit maybe more so than Carey
By some definitions I suppose it is.
But the only alternative to strive for without it, is money and power, the priests already have first dibs on god.
A few for the Tories One Welsh lady was Labour another was going Green, angry at Clegg's betrayal and Blair for abandoning socialism, a black lady seemed to like UKIP though another mistook Farage as leader of the UK
More to come over the campaign
Spoke to my Dad today, Nuneaton & Bedworth is a key defence for the Conservatives. If this poll occurs on election day, Warwick & Leamington could be in trouble too.
I rate Max Hastings book – Editor. I loved his line that the Telegraph, Guardian and Times try their level best to ensure their stories are based in fact, whereas those in the Sun, Star and Mirror are often – voluntarily – works of sheer fiction.
But when you hear that the Telegraph upgraded a children's film from the actual reviewer's two stars to the commercial team's preferred three, you wonder whether times may have changed...