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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » As pollsters start to look at tacticals Marf gives her take
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » As pollsters start to look at tacticals Marf gives her take.
Politicalbetting's Marf on the polling pic.twitter.com/55nJE8S3JT
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BUT - absence of evidence is not necessarily evidence of absence. Just because we don't have enough untainted data doesn't mean that it isn't out there.
The only significant movement in 8 months is from LAB to SNP since that now assumes Lab lose most of Scottish seats it will not form a trend.
CON unmoved for 8 months.
Therefore EICIPM (Betfair 2.36) looks good to me
Their websites are crap for finding polling info (Both of them)
I reckon there is a reconciliation of sorts that will be possible.
I wonder if anyone blinks?
Or have we done this one and I missed it earlier?
I think Merkel will blink but surely todays news means GREXIT will shorten to enable you a profit
http://www.icmunlimited.com/data/media/pdf/2015_feb_guardian.pdf
https://www.ipsos-mori.com/Assets/Docs/Publications/feb2015web_VI_THR_FINAL.pdf
I seem to remember Betfair used to offer them.
It affects me about as much as A-Rod and the Yankees.
Did I miss it?
However – it seems there’s more to this story than meets the eye. Harriet Yeo was removed as Labour Group Leader of Ashford Council last week, after being accused of non-attendance at council meetings and a failure undertake council casework.
Last night she was deselected as a candidate for the 2015 local elections – and left the Labour Party the next day.
I'll believe Greece is leaving the Euro when I see it.
ICM England
38% CON
34% LAB
Ipsos England
38% Con
37% Lab
I haven't bought a Daily Telegraph for years.
Ed Is Crap Is Not Prime Minister - Which we'll be hearing more and more of over the next few weeks.
I think he is pretty Crap but think the polls show he is marginally favorite to be PM
Guido has it
The Telegraph is indeed rubbish as are the Barclay Bros, but so is Oborne and the never ending set of chips on his shoulder. Not least Israel.
The problem of course is that if they do then every other crap economy will try the same trick.
I agree that the odds are probably about right, but I wouldn't be a bit surprised if Greece finds itself out despite no one really wanting that.
Couldn’t a really bright lawyer find some reason for Goldman Sachs to be sued, by both Greece and the ECB, thereby squaring the circle. The compensation would be awesome.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/labour/11418374/Top-Labour-figure-dumps-Ed-Miliband-for-Ukip.html
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2957368/Judge-slams-social-engineering-council-took-baby-away-father-ties-racist-EDL-teenage-sex-caution.html
Gets more and more like East Germany in this country:
"More than 2,000 Germans are still searching for family members lost as a result of as a result of the forced adoption policies instigated by Margot Honecker.
Under the policy, the children of dissidents and East Germans who attempted to flee to the West were forcibly and permanently separated from their parents. Many were placed in foster homes or state adoption institutions, or with the families of childless Communist party activists.
Many affected children and parents never saw each other again"
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/dictators-wife-defiant-over-forced-adoptions-1817710.html
Clearly forced adoption has longstanding socialist credentials.
The Barclay Bros of course with their reputation have every incentive to see weak national government. But really to be fair the them, although they do not deserve it, every media organisation in the country has every incentive to undermine the workings of government since they all have zero reputation for morality themselves.
http://www.theguardian.com/media/2015/feb/17/peter-oborne-telegraph-hsbc-coverage-fraud-readers
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WJgPq8Lc7Ns
PS. It'd be nice to see your Bjesus data in a graph, rather than a giant data table. Easier to digest too.
Journalists? I think we can count the good ones on the fingers of one hand. Buit we do not get 'journalists' any more do we? We get 'commentators'.
Looks like he's off to The Guardian with Matt D'Ancona then?
When they stop believing in Europe, then they will try to make excuses to get out, instead of staying in.
To be quite honest, I don;t think Tsipras can come up with an agreement that would placate both his electorate and his creditors at the same time.
Essentially Tsipras was elected on a giant misrepresentation of what was achievable for Greece. The people of that country are going to find that out either via
1. business as usual
or
2. getting paid in toilet paper as opposed to euros when the cash runs out
I also factored in that the EU is a collection of silly fools, madmen, absurd bureaucrats, crooks, liars and other colourful characters that fit the description that history is made by the psychic illnesses of leaders. Essentially people fit to be a cartoon.
Add those 2 together and the result was that.
Though I don't know which character is Tsipras and which is Merkel.
Re papers, of course it's regrettable. Just like airlines, people prefer cheap journalism and let quality go hang. But there are many more side-effects to losing good newspapers than losing high-fare airlines.
Both of these were the hot topics in the propaganda war just a short while ago...has it all gone terribly wrong....no Islands submerged and a rise in the population of the bears..perhaps.
Probably I'll read about it in the next Private Eye.
Genuine question.
I'm sure that if Clegg loses, it will be such a historic moment that the lesson for the next LD leaders will be "if I go into a coalition it might cost my seat".
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_Kingdom_general_election,_2010_(England)
Conservative 39.6%,
Labour 28.1%
Last GE.
The ICM has 38 vs 34, a 3.75% swing to Labour.
Ipsos was 38 vs 37
So despite the very different headline numbers, the England subdata is not too bad for Labour. And its a statistically significant subset.
Which certainly wont happen.
But how the various regions and demographics within England will differ from UNS and consequently the electoral effect is far from certain.
By contrast in 2010 it was obvious, well obvious to everyone but the Cameroons, that there was going to be a much bigger swing to the Conservatives in wwc areas than there would be in the cities.
They will be the 4th biggest party... will the Nats be happy to only have supply and confidence whilst the Lib Dems have seats in Gov't... probably not. Perhaps SNP-LD-LAB coalition can be ruled out too as ... to crowded . Therefore the only party that the Lib Dems will in effect aid are the Conservatives. And that depends on Clegg holding his seat.
So to conclude why the hell are the Conservatives even putting up a candidate in Hallam
Had a good laugh at the rental prices.
Edited to add:
Egypt is spending $5 billion on Frog fighters and corvette. EU-funded arms for Al-Sisi? EU bet...!