Unfortunately the chances of a Conservative majority without some amazing black swan are pretty much zero as well.
Not according to the betting markets.
The more interesting conundrum is whether the referendum would go ahead if there's a Conservative-led government in a hung parliament. The answer is probably that it would, but obviously that couldn't be guaranteed if the other parties gang up to torpedo it. That's a question for them, though.
We can then make a list of seats that the Cons would have won had Ukip stepped aside and calculate whether there would have a been a majority for a referendum.
Dr Nabavi has been telling us that Cameron would rather cut off his testicles with a rusty knife than weasel on the EU referendum. Given Cast Iron Dave's track record for weaselling I would say that was the sound of hope triumphing over experience, but we shall see.
In the near-inconceivable scenario of him weaselling on it, the Conservative Party would be the ones wielding the rusty knife. The chances of the referendum not happening (if there's a Conservative majority) are zero.
Unfortunately the chances of a Conservative majority without some amazing black swan are pretty much zero as well.
The detail in the ICM Guardian poll makes for happy reading for the Conservatives. It suggests a swing to the Tories in the marginals, with Labour picking up lots of 2010 Lib Dems in safe Conservative seats.
That, and a dozen Lib Dem seats, would give the Conservatives a majority.
Unfortunately the chances of a Conservative majority without some amazing black swan are pretty much zero as well.
Not according to the betting markets.
The more interesting conundrum is whether the referendum would go ahead if there's a Conservative-led government in a hung parliament. The answer is probably that it would, but obviously that couldn't be guaranteed if the other parties gang up to torpedo it. That's a question for them, though.
We can then make a list of seats that the Cons would have won had Ukip stepped aside and calculate whether there would have a been a majority for a referendum.
Kippers will cost us the referendum yet.
Quite a lot of kippers (like isam) are ex-labour so not going to be jumping at the opportunity of voting in a Conservative government. If I had to guess I would say that the recent drift left in kipper policy is because their internal numbers tell them the majority of their party members/supporters are now WVM or left-leaning Victor Meldrew types.
Unfortunately the chances of a Conservative majority without some amazing black swan are pretty much zero as well.
Not according to the betting markets.
The more interesting conundrum is whether the referendum would go ahead if there's a Conservative-led government in a hung parliament. The answer is probably that it would, but obviously that couldn't be guaranteed if the other parties gang up to torpedo it. That's a question for them, though.
We can then make a list of seats that the Cons would have won had Ukip stepped aside and calculate whether there would have a been a majority for a referendum.
Kippers will cost us the referendum yet.
Quite a lot of kippers (like isam) are ex-labour so not going to be jumping at the opportunity of voting in a Conservative government. If I had to guess I would say that the recent drift left in kipper policy is because their internal numbers tell them the majority of their party members/supporters are now WVM or left-leaning Victor Meldrew types.
Clear water now :
Yes if you want a referendum vote Con.
If you have a problem with immigrants - vote Ukip.
Can I join Mr Nabavi in offering a £1,000 wager that in the event of a Tory majority after the May GE we will get an in/out EU referendum by the end of 2017? If an in/out referendum on the EU is what you are after above all else, then not to vote Tory in May is insane.
Unfortunately the chances of a Conservative majority without some amazing black swan are pretty much zero as well.
Not according to the betting markets.
The more interesting conundrum is whether the referendum would go ahead if there's a Conservative-led government in a hung parliament. The answer is probably that it would, but obviously that couldn't be guaranteed if the other parties gang up to torpedo it. That's a question for them, though.
We can then make a list of seats that the Cons would have won had Ukip stepped aside and calculate whether there would have a been a majority for a referendum.
Kippers will cost us the referendum yet.
Quite a lot of kippers (like isam) are ex-labour so not going to be jumping at the opportunity of voting in a Conservative government. If I had to guess I would say that the recent drift left in kipper policy is because their internal numbers tell them the majority of their party members/supporters are now WVM or left-leaning Victor Meldrew types.
Clear water now :
Yes if you want a referendum vote Con.
If you have a problem with immigrants - vote Ukip.
Simplistic.
If you don't like Labour in places like Heywood & Middleton, or almost anywhere North of the Watford gap, vote UKIP because they have a chance to cost Miliband a seat, and the Tories, don't.
Looks like Tspiras has 81% approval with the Greek public for his current approach with the EU.
It seems like the EU is faced with a regime which is not only rather fruitcakey, but also appears at the moment to be exuding integrity, which is going down very well at home. Their understandable line appears to be that they were elected decisively (for a PR system) on a platform of no more austerity, so they cant exactly be expected to turn their back on their electorate in the first few weeks and sign up to exactly what they said they would not.
I rather admire their upfront approach to be honest, they are taking it down to the wire with tough negotiation, and are not prepared to be fobbed off with cosmetic changes. They might come away with nothing, but if it doesn't look like they are prepared to burn the EU to the ground to get what they want, they will definitely get nothing. What with the USA rowing in on their side and I beginning to get the suspicion that Varoufakis might come out the winner on this one. Then the material will really hit the rotating blades.
As with Podemos in Spain, the EU only has itself to blame for what is happening in Greece. Once most voters do not feel they have a stake in the society in which they live they will reject it.
Dr Nabavi has been telling us that Cameron would rather cut off his testicles with a rusty knife than weasel on the EU referendum. Given Cast Iron Dave's track record for weaselling I would say that was the sound of hope triumphing over experience, but we shall see.
In the near-inconceivable scenario of him weaselling on it, the Conservative Party would be the ones wielding the rusty knife. The chances of the referendum not happening (if there's a Conservative majority) are zero.
Tosh.
In 2011 the parliamentary Conservative Party were told to vote against an EU referendum. They did.
In 2014 the parliamentary Conservative Party were told to vote to pass powers over Justice and Home Affairs to the EU. They did.
The majority of the parliamentary Conservative party is pro-EU, and their local associations support their actions.
Well, my offer of up to £1000 at Evens remains open to anyone credit worthy but stupid enough to agree with you. No takers so far, and I don't expect there will be any.
The idea that there is any possibility of not having an EU referendum on an In / Out basis if there is a Tory majority is laughable, subject to the commitment appearing in the 2015 manifesto.
The pressure from some cabinet members, Gove and Hammond for two:
High profile Tory mouthpieces, Boris is now advocating it, Rees Mogg and others:
Then about 40% of backbenchers actively want it, maybe more:
Then add in the sceptic section of the press and public demand:
Then add in the possibility that the chances of a Tory getting re elected in 2020 is a virtual nil if they renege on this manifesto commitment:
I think you are in a position where you could expect all Tory MPs except the odd Ken Clarke to support holding an In / Out a referendum.
I had my first Conservative leaflet yesterday. Also an interesting letter in the local newspaper about the UKIP candidate. She campaigned against the building of a new supermarket - and then won a prize as the first customer when it opened!
@Richard_Nabavi Smart or not, no one can complain about their tax affairs being pried into now, The Labour party must be "bricking" themselves about what more can come out.
What's interesting about the Kippers' move to the left is that it is in many ways a compliment to the government. A couple of years out from the election they concluded that Cameron was (re-)electable and Ed Miliband was not electable, and positioned themselves accordingly.
Obviously the simple desire to maximise vote share applies too; they are - like the LDs in times past - able to push different messages in different seats.
Dr Nabavi has been telling us that Cameron would rather cut off his testicles with a rusty knife than weasel on the EU referendum. Given Cast Iron Dave's track record for weaselling I would say that was the sound of hope triumphing over experience, but we shall see.
In the near-inconceivable scenario of him weaselling on it, the Conservative Party would be the ones wielding the rusty knife. The chances of the referendum not happening (if there's a Conservative majority) are zero.
Unfortunately the chances of a Conservative majority without some amazing black swan are pretty much zero as well.
The detail in the ICM Guardian poll makes for happy reading for the Conservatives. It suggests a swing to the Tories in the marginals, with Labour picking up lots of 2010 Lib Dems in safe Conservative seats.
That, and a dozen Lib Dem seats, would give the Conservatives a majority.
There is some extraordinary detail in the meat of that MORI poll which, if it is remotely right at least in detecting a direction of travel, has profound betting implications....
Given recent trends Kippers are heading for single figures. 30% is for the birds.
We better hope like hell that Cameron doesn't screw the pooch on the 2017 Referendum then, if there is the slightest breath of controversy about how it is handled half the rest of the Conservative Party will move over to the kippers, then its game over.
Thinking Tories won't want the referendum once they're staring it in the face, since it boils the question down to either "yes" or "no", whereas most Tory MPs advocate a vague but intermediate "meh". If the economy is good at that point UKIP will be past they're peak and not so scarey. On balance I think he'd do in-out, but it's not unthinkable that he'd weasel, and if he did it wouldn't be remotely as devastating as you're suggesting.
Dr Nabavi has been telling us that Cameron would rather cut off his testicles with a rusty knife than weasel on the EU referendum. Given Cast Iron Dave's track record for weaselling I would say that was the sound of hope triumphing over experience, but we shall see.
If we get the sort of ISIS terrorist action on the mainland that SeanT has been going on about I suspect the immigration issue will jump very rapidly up the agenda, and that can't be effectively tackled whilst in the EU, so the EU will become a cause celebre.
It looks as though there are more terrorists and potential terrorists per head o population in any EU in Belgium, doesn't it?
Unfortunately the chances of a Conservative majority without some amazing black swan are pretty much zero as well.
Not according to the betting markets.
The more interesting conundrum is whether the referendum would go ahead if there's a Conservative-led government in a hung parliament. The answer is probably that it would, but obviously that couldn't be guaranteed if the other parties gang up to torpedo it. That's a question for them, though.
They have made it a red line in negotiations, though, and you've got to imagine it would be a Coalition-buster in the event that, say, the LibDems deviously went back on their promises.
Not that you can remotely conceive of that happening, of course
Can I join Mr Nabavi in offering a £1,000 wager that in the event of a Tory majority after the May GE we will get an in/out EU referendum by the end of 2017? If an in/out referendum on the EU is what you are after above all else, then not to vote Tory in May is insane.
Ah, but is that a referendum based on a completed negotiation to which I'm sorry I'm losing the will to live please let's not go down this road again zzzzzzzzzzzz
I think you are in a position where you could expect all Tory MPs except the odd Ken Clarke to support holding an In / Out a referendum.
IANAK (I am not a Kipper), but I think their main concern isn't that the referendum wont be held, its that Cameron will come back from Brussels with a turd, and will then attempt to impart a sufficient shine to it that the largely only superficially interest public will in essence take his word for it. It's not weaselling the referendum that's the issue, its weaselling the bit of tinsel he got from the EU and trying to parlay it into a major achievement.
I think you are in a position where you could expect all Tory MPs except the odd Ken Clarke to support holding an In / Out a referendum.
IANAK (I am not a Kipper), but I think their main concern isn't that the referendum wont be held, its that Cameron will come back from Brussels with a turd, and will then attempt to impart a sufficient shine to it that the largely only superficially interest public will in essence take his word for it. It's not weaselling the referendum that's the issue, its weaselling the bit of tinsel he got from the EU and trying to parlay it into a major achievement.
Given in this hypothetical situation that Cameron is elected rather than Milliband I think the UK electorate will have adequately proved that they can recognise a turd when the see one and reject it.
I think you are in a position where you could expect all Tory MPs except the odd Ken Clarke to support holding an In / Out a referendum.
IANAK (I am not a Kipper), but I think their main concern isn't that the referendum wont be held, its that Cameron will come back from Brussels with a turd, and will then attempt to impart a sufficient shine to it that the largely only superficially interest public will in essence take his word for it. It's not weaselling the referendum that's the issue, its weaselling the bit of tinsel he got from the EU and trying to parlay it into a major achievement.
And you have a dim view of the voters if you think they won't spot that. Cameron may have certain strengths, but being a Svengali ain't among 'em.
Given recent trends Kippers are heading for single figures. 30% is for the birds.
We better hope like hell that Cameron doesn't screw the pooch on the 2017 Referendum then, if there is the slightest breath of controversy about how it is handled half the rest of the Conservative Party will move over to the kippers, then its game over.
Thinking Tories won't want the referendum once they're staring it in the face, since it boils the question down to either "yes" or "no", whereas most Tory MPs advocate a vague but intermediate "meh". If the economy is good at that point UKIP will be past they're peak and not so scarey. On balance I think he'd do in-out, but it's not unthinkable that he'd weasel, and if he did it wouldn't be remotely as devastating as you're suggesting.
Dr Nabavi has been telling us that Cameron would rather cut off his testicles with a rusty knife than weasel on the EU referendum. Given Cast Iron Dave's track record for weaselling I would say that was the sound of hope triumphing over experience, but we shall see.
If we get the sort of ISIS terrorist action on the mainland that SeanT has been going on about I suspect the immigration issue will jump very rapidly up the agenda, and that can't be effectively tackled whilst in the EU, so the EU will become a cause celebre.
It looks as though there are more terrorists and potential terrorists per head o population in any EU in Belgium, doesn't it?
Is the problem. EU external border control is essentially optional, as undesirables can buy an EU passport from the right country, after which they are inside the tent and we have no effective border control against them.
Unfortunately the chances of a Conservative majority without some amazing black swan are pretty much zero as well.
Not according to the betting markets.
The more interesting conundrum is whether the referendum would go ahead if there's a Conservative-led government in a hung parliament. The answer is probably that it would, but obviously that couldn't be guaranteed if the other parties gang up to torpedo it. That's a question for them, though.
They have made it a red line in negotiations, though, and you've got to imagine it would be a Coalition-buster in the event that, say, the LibDems deviously went back on their promises.
Not that you can remotely conceive of that happening, of course
More likely the LDs would want it to be a government negotiation with other member states, meaning that they got to take part and set the red lines.
Looks like Tspiras has 81% approval with the Greek public for his current approach with the EU.
It seems like the EU is faced with a regime which is not only rather fruitcakey, but also appears at the moment to be exuding integrity, which is going down very well at home. Their understandable line appears to be that they were elected decisively (for a PR system) on a platform of no more austerity, so they cant exactly be expected to turn their back on their electorate in the first few weeks and sign up to exactly what they said they would not.
I rather admire their upfront approach to be honest, they are taking it down to the wire with tough negotiation, and are not prepared to be fobbed off with cosmetic changes. They might come away with nothing, but if it doesn't look like they are prepared to burn the EU to the ground to get what they want, they will definitely get nothing. What with the USA rowing in on their side and I beginning to get the suspicion that Varoufakis might come out the winner on this one. Then the material will really hit the rotating blades.
As with Podemos in Spain, the EU only has itself to blame for what is happening in Greece. Once most voters do not feel they have a stake in the society in which they live they will reject it.
The EU has been sticking its fingers into its ears, shouting "La la. We can't hear you" for a decade or more. Only when the flames are licking at their ankles will they notice that the house is on fire.
Greece exiting the euro could be a black swan event. So could some ghastly atrocity on the streets of Rome or London.
What Balls paid his gardener is mere froth. Though entertaining nonetheless. I wonder whether - even if Labour win - he will be the Chancellor. He seems unhappy in the role and EdM does not appear to have confidence in him. If not him, who might it be?
I think you are in a position where you could expect all Tory MPs except the odd Ken Clarke to support holding an In / Out a referendum.
Yes, absolutely. In fact I think that even the Ken Clarke wing (which is tiny anyway) would almost certainly vote in favour, because it's the only way of moving on from the issue, and it's a commitment which has already been made and will be in the manifesto.
Looks like Tspiras has 81% approval with the Greek public for his current approach with the EU.
It seems like the EU is faced with a regime which is not only rather fruitcakey, but also appears at the moment to be exuding integrity, which is going down very well at home. Their understandable line appears to be that they were elected decisively (for a PR system) on a platform of no more austerity, so they cant exactly be expected to turn their back on their electorate in the first few weeks and sign up to exactly what they said they would not.
I rather admire their upfront approach to be honest, they are taking it down to the wire with tough negotiation, and are not prepared to be fobbed off with cosmetic changes. They might come away with nothing, but if it doesn't look like they are prepared to burn the EU to the ground to get what they want, they will definitely get nothing. What with the USA rowing in on their side and I beginning to get the suspicion that Varoufakis might come out the winner on this one. Then the material will really hit the rotating blades.
As with Podemos in Spain, the EU only has itself to blame for what is happening in Greece. Once most voters do not feel they have a stake in the society in which they live they will reject it.
What Balls paid his gardener is mere froth. Though entertaining nonetheless. I wonder whether - even if Labour win - he will be the Chancellor. He seems unhappy in the role and EdM does not appear to have confidence in him. If not him, who might it be?
He pretty much unmoveable if he wants to stay, and no other position provides as much power other than the leadership (snowball in hell's chance that would happen). I can see a Blair/Brown situation developing, but with the relative roles reversed.
Since Mrs Thatcher came to power the Tories have embraced an I'm alright Jack individualism. Isn't it fairly obvious that would set it on a collision course with the Church?
Given recent trends Kippers are heading for single figures. 30% is for the birds.
We better hope like hell that Cameron doesn't screw the pooch on the 2017 Referendum then, if there is the slightest breath of controversy about how it is handled half the rest of the Conservative Party will move over to the kippers, then its game over.
Thinking Tories won't want the referendum once they're staring it in the face, since it boils the question down to either "yes" or "no", whereas most Tory MPs advocate a vague but intermediate "meh". If the economy is good at that point UKIP will be past they're peak and not so scarey. On balance I think he'd do in-out, but it's not unthinkable that he'd weasel, and if he did it wouldn't be remotely as devastating as you're suggesting.
Dr Nabavi has been telling us that Cameron would rather cut off his testicles with a rusty knife than weasel on the EU referendum. Given Cast Iron Dave's track record for weaselling I would say that was the sound of hope triumphing over experience, but we shall see.
If we get the sort of ISIS terrorist action on the mainland that SeanT has been going on about I suspect the immigration issue will jump very rapidly up the agenda, and that can't be effectively tackled whilst in the EU, so the EU will become a cause celebre.
It looks as though there are more terrorists and potential terrorists per head o population in any EU in Belgium, doesn't it?
Is the problem. EU external border control is essentially optional, as undesirables can buy an EU passport from the right country, after which they are inside the tent and we have no effective border control against them.
Why "if"? We've had one in Paris, one in Copenhagen and an attempted one in Belgium this year already. They strike me as pretty ghastly already. And I pray that we won't get anything worse.
I thought that under the Treaty of Rome you do have the right to limit the free movement of even EU nationals for national security reasons. So we could close our borders I think. It's more a question of political will and the resources needed for doing so.
And it's only a temporary solution anyway. Europe has to fight on a united basis against this threat to its civilisation.
What Balls paid his gardener is mere froth. Though entertaining nonetheless. I wonder whether - even if Labour win - he will be the Chancellor. He seems unhappy in the role and EdM does not appear to have confidence in him. If not him, who might it be?
My mischievous side wants either of the big parties to get a working majority in preference to a minority government, because it means we can ignore the SNP for five years and let them froth north of the border. The outrage at suddenly being irrelevant after months of expecting to be throwing their weight around in some sort of deal would be joyous.
I better get my coat now before the PB Nats notice
Edit: Oh damn, as soon as I posted that Dair turns up, he must be telepathic!
A&D: absolutely. they still have to earn my 'X' tho.
one-nill to Ant or Dec......
More to the point, in the face of utter destruction in Scotland after years of this "you must vote labour because that's what we do here", they show no signs of learning in the North or Wales.
Since Mrs Thatcher came to power the Tories have embraced an I'm alright Jack individualism. Isn't it fairly obvious that would set it on a collision course with the Church?
More to the point, in the face of utter destruction in Scotland after years of this "you must vote labour because that's what we do here", they show no signs of learning in the North or Wales.
Since Mrs Thatcher came to power the Tories have embraced an I'm alright Jack individualism. Isn't it fairly obvious that would set it on a collision course with the Church?
Individualism isn't, per se, necessarily at odds with Christianity though, is it? The individual's relationship with God, the individual conscience etc. It's what you do as an individual that counts, surely?
I think you are in a position where you could expect all Tory MPs except the odd Ken Clarke to support holding an In / Out a referendum.
IANAK (I am not a Kipper), but I think their main concern isn't that the referendum wont be held, its that Cameron will come back from Brussels with a turd, and will then attempt to impart a sufficient shine to it that the largely only superficially interest public will in essence take his word for it. It's not weaselling the referendum that's the issue, its weaselling the bit of tinsel he got from the EU and trying to parlay it into a major achievement.
Well, it worked for Wilson. Should it ever come to it I would imagine that the Establishment will try and do a re-run of 1975. Whether that would work in this day and age I am not so sure. Probably it would. However, we are a far less deferential society and have far more sources of information. So the words of the "great and the good" and the mainstream media will carry far less weight than they did forty years ago.
Hasn't Milliband refused to confirm that he will be Chancellor?
I just wouldn't be surprised if Ed went for someone more in keeping with what seem to be his instincts on tax / the economy etc.
Yes, I do actually think that that is a possibility. However, it would be a very high-risk move by Ed M, both politically (picking an open quarrel with Ed Balls would be brave) and economically.
Unfortunately the chances of a Conservative majority without some amazing black swan are pretty much zero as well.
Not according to the betting markets.
The more interesting conundrum is whether the referendum would go ahead if there's a Conservative-led government in a hung parliament. The answer is probably that it would, but obviously that couldn't be guaranteed if the other parties gang up to torpedo it. That's a question for them, though.
We can then make a list of seats that the Cons would have won had Ukip stepped aside and calculate whether there would have a been a majority for a referendum.
Kippers will cost us the referendum yet.
Yep good idea that. Victimise voters who decided they didn't want to vote for you who had previously voted for you (many of them swing voters).
First you disaffect them, then you abuse them and then you blame them for your failure. Yep that will bring them back to the fold.
What after that? Some McCarthyite trial of little old men and ladies who admit they voted UKIP?. A Grand Inquisition of those who refuse to tell you who they voted for with a ducking stool for those who do not break under torture?
How long is it going to take for certain Tories to accept that they are responsible for their own actions and their failures are first and foremost the result of those actions.
How long will it take for such Tories to realise that the Tory party does not own those voters votes and they do not owe the Tory party anything
Looks like Tspiras has 81% approval with the Greek public for his current approach with the EU.
It seems like the EU is faced with a regime which is not only rather fruitcakey, but also appears at the moment to be exuding integrity, which is going down very well at home. Their understandable line appears to be that they were elected decisively (for a PR system) on a platform of no more austerity, so they cant exactly be expected to turn their back on their electorate in the first few weeks and sign up to exactly what they said they would not.
I rather admire their upfront approach to be honest, they are taking it down to the wire with tough negotiation, and are not prepared to be fobbed off with cosmetic changes. They might come away with nothing, but if it doesn't look like they are prepared to burn the EU to the ground to get what they want, they will definitely get nothing. What with the USA rowing in on their side and I beginning to get the suspicion that Varoufakis might come out the winner on this one. Then the material will really hit the rotating blades.
As with Podemos in Spain, the EU only has itself to blame for what is happening in Greece. Once most voters do not feel they have a stake in the society in which they live they will reject it.
The EU has been sticking its fingers into its ears, shouting "La la. We can't hear you" for a decade or more. Only when the flames are licking at their ankles will they notice that the house is on fire.
Greece exiting the euro could be a black swan event. So could some ghastly atrocity on the streets of Rome or London.
Ed Balls among 12 shadow cabinet members who claimed expenses without receipts Following shadow chancellor's advice that everyone should get a receipt for cash in hand jobs, Labour MPs put in spotlight over their expense claims
A&D: absolutely. they still have to earn my 'X' tho.
one-nill to Ant or Dec......
More to the point, in the face of utter destruction in Scotland after years of this "you must vote labour because that's what we do here", they show no signs of learning in the North or Wales.
I don't think any fair-minded person would hold the Labour Party responsible for the ravings of Eoin Clarke. But his mindset isn't that unusual.
What Balls paid his gardener is mere froth. Though entertaining nonetheless. I wonder whether - even if Labour win - he will be the Chancellor.
[checks betting slips] He'd better be!
Hasn't Milliband refused to confirm that he will be Chancellor?
I just wouldn't be surprised if Ed went for someone more in keeping with what seem to be his instincts on tax / the economy etc.
Like???
No idea really. Angela Eagle? Lucy Powell? Cruddas?
Am probably quite wrong but Balls does not seem like someone who is happy in his position and looking forward to being Chancellor, he does not look like someone who feels that he has his leader's confidence and Ed does not give the impression that he thinks Balls will do what he wants.
I sense tension between them and that, quite apart from anything else, is not good news given the necessary tension that there always is between a PM and a CoE.
Wildly O/t but LibDem Voice leads to day with the news that "Lancashire county councillor David Whipp has won the World Meat Pie championship, which travelled this year all the way to Barnoldswick, Lancashire. Winning a world meat pie contest with a vegetarian pie is simply out of this world."
I've only had the 1 piece of electoral guff through the letterbox. I'd still say this is a marginal, but I suppose some are more ferociously contested than others.
I've had none in Eastbourne. Where is it on the hit list?
Since Mrs Thatcher came to power the Tories have embraced an I'm alright Jack individualism. Isn't it fairly obvious that would set it on a collision course with the Church?
I don't think they have, but I think that's how the Church sees it. They're wedded to the 1945 welfare state, which, paradoxically, saw the nationalisation of a lot of Church welfare institutions.
Hasn't Milliband refused to confirm that he will be Chancellor?
I just wouldn't be surprised if Ed went for someone more in keeping with what seem to be his instincts on tax / the economy etc.
Yes, I do actually think that that is a possibility. However, it would be a very high-risk move by Ed M, both politically (picking an open quarrel with Ed Balls would be brave) and economically.
If he is going to do it, the moment when (if) he becomes PM is the time to do it. He won't be any stronger than at that point.
What Balls paid his gardener is mere froth. Though entertaining nonetheless. I wonder whether - even if Labour win - he will be the Chancellor.
[checks betting slips] He'd better be!
Hasn't Milliband refused to confirm that he will be Chancellor?
I just wouldn't be surprised if Ed went for someone more in keeping with what seem to be his instincts on tax / the economy etc.
Like???
No idea really. Angela Eagle? Lucy Powell? Cruddas?
Am probably quite wrong but Balls does not seem like someone who is happy in his position and looking forward to being Chancellor, he does not look like someone who feels that he has his leader's confidence and Ed does not give the impression that he thinks Balls will do what he wants.
I sense tension between them and that, quite apart from anything else, is not good news given the necessary tension that there always is between a PM and a CoE.
Agree that Balls seems semi detached, and it is hard to say Yvette is fully committed.
More to the point, in the face of utter destruction in Scotland after years of this "you must vote labour because that's what we do here", they show no signs of learning in the North or Wales.
So painful to read that graph and see how its gone to the nutty Kippers. I can't imagine there is a major employer left in Wales that is not significantly propped up by EU funding.
They need to learn how the pork barrel works and get backing Plaid.
Hasn't Milliband refused to confirm that he will be Chancellor?
I just wouldn't be surprised if Ed went for someone more in keeping with what seem to be his instincts on tax / the economy etc.
Yes, I do actually think that that is a possibility. However, it would be a very high-risk move by Ed M, both politically (picking an open quarrel with Ed Balls would be brave) and economically.
I agree it'd be a high-risk move. Miliband has already tried that trick once when he appointed Alan Johnson as Shadow Chancellor and Balls immediately went about undermining him in true Brownite fashion. Unless Balls really self-exploded, there's little doubt that history would repeat itself.
In any case, I don't think there's much difference between Miliband and Balls on policy. Both are spendy, taxy, borrow types. Miliband is marginally more ideological and Balls more pragmatic but there's not much in it.
Looks like Tspiras has 81% approval with the Greek public for his current approach with the EU.
It seems like the EU is faced with a regime which is not only rather fruitcakey, but also appears at the moment to be exuding integrity, which is going down very well at home. Their understandable line appears to be that they were elected decisively (for a PR system) on a platform of no more austerity, so they cant exactly be expected to turn their back on their electorate in the first few weeks and sign up to exactly what they said they would not.
I rather admire their upfront approach to be honest, they are taking it down to the wire with tough negotiation, and are not prepared to be fobbed off with cosmetic changes. They might come away with nothing, but if it doesn't look like they are prepared to burn the EU to the ground to get what they want, they will definitely get nothing. What with the USA rowing in on their side and I beginning to get the suspicion that Varoufakis might come out the winner on this one. Then the material will really hit the rotating blades.
As with Podemos in Spain, the EU only has itself to blame for what is happening in Greece. Once most voters do not feel they have a stake in the society in which they live they will reject it.
The EU has been sticking its fingers into its ears, shouting "La la. We can't hear you" for a decade or more. Only when the flames are licking at their ankles will they notice that the house is on fire.
Greece exiting the euro could be a black swan event. So could some ghastly atrocity on the streets of Rome or London.
Didn't Madrid count?
Of course it does. I was referring to what had happened so far this year.
@Plato Yes, the Times, Telegraph, Express and the Mail are all having a great time at the expense of the Labour leadership. You would have thought that at least one of their "spin doctors" had watched The Thick Of It episode mentioned on here the other night. Especially given that the press would not be kind to Ed after Levenson.
I think you are in a position where you could expect all Tory MPs except the odd Ken Clarke to support holding an In / Out a referendum.
IANAK (I am not a Kipper), but I think their main concern isn't that the referendum wont be held, its that Cameron will come back from Brussels with a turd, and will then attempt to impart a sufficient shine to it that the largely only superficially interest public will in essence take his word for it. It's not weaselling the referendum that's the issue, its weaselling the bit of tinsel he got from the EU and trying to parlay it into a major achievement.
What you are essentially relying on is the likes of Hammond, Gove and BoJo to call a turd a turd. They probably will - it's most likely to be in their interests to take a stance if they think that people will figure out that something brown and soft is unlikely to be a chocolate.
That's more assurance than you get on most things in politics
Unfortunately the chances of a Conservative majority without some amazing black swan are pretty much zero as well.
Not according to the betting markets.
The more interesting conundrum is whether the referendum would go ahead if there's a Conservative-led government in a hung parliament. The answer is probably that it would, but obviously that couldn't be guaranteed if the other parties gang up to torpedo it. That's a question for them, though.
They have made it a red line in negotiations, though, and you've got to imagine it would be a Coalition-buster in the event that, say, the LibDems deviously went back on their promises.
Not that you can remotely conceive of that happening, of course
More likely the LDs would want it to be a government negotiation with other member states, meaning that they got to take part and set the red lines.
Unlikely that they will get that in Coalition negotiations.
They will definitely get the ability to campaign on whatever side of the vote they want, and will probably get Quad input into negotiating strategy, but there is no way that you can have two parties/individuals with different views leading the negotiations themselves. Presumably it would be Cameron as PM and Hammond/Osborne(?) as Foreign Secretary
So, essentially, all the LibDems would be signing up to would be to vote in Parliament for a referendum.
I think you are in a position where you could expect all Tory MPs except the odd Ken Clarke to support holding an In / Out a referendum.
IANAK (I am not a Kipper), but I think their main concern isn't that the referendum wont be held, its that Cameron will come back from Brussels with a turd, and will then attempt to impart a sufficient shine to it that the largely only superficially interest public will in essence take his word for it. It's not weaselling the referendum that's the issue, its weaselling the bit of tinsel he got from the EU and trying to parlay it into a major achievement.
What you are essentially relying on is the likes of Hammond, Gove and BoJo to call a turd a turd. They probably will - it's most likely to be in their interests to take a stance if they think that people will figure out that something brown and soft is unlikely to be a chocolate.
That's more assurance than you get on most things in politics
And you will Milliband campaigning for In. That is not an opportunity that will come round often.
So there is one aspect of the 2015 election campaign that I haven't heard any comment on, and I don't know if it is factored in in any way.
What role (if any) will Boris play? Will he be a 'team' player? Will his contribution have a positive or negative effect for the Tory party?
There have been reports of a deal between BoJo and Cameron.
He plays a full role in the campaign, as a team player. In return he gets access to backbenchers and junior ministers to try and build support for a post Cameron leadership challenge (whenever that may be)
Since Mrs Thatcher came to power the Tories have embraced an I'm alright Jack individualism. Isn't it fairly obvious that would set it on a collision course with the Church?
Unfortunately the chances of a Conservative majority without some amazing black swan are pretty much zero as well.
Not according to the betting markets.
The more interesting conundrum is whether the referendum would go ahead if there's a Conservative-led government in a hung parliament. The answer is probably that it would, but obviously that couldn't be guaranteed if the other parties gang up to torpedo it. That's a question for them, though.
They have made it a red line in negotiations, though, and you've got to imagine it would be a Coalition-buster in the event that, say, the LibDems deviously went back on their promises.
Not that you can remotely conceive of that happening, of course
More likely the LDs would want it to be a government negotiation with other member states, meaning that they got to take part and set the red lines.
Unlikely that they will get that in Coalition negotiations.
They will definitely get the ability to campaign on whatever side of the vote they want, and will probably get Quad input into negotiating strategy, but there is no way that you can have two parties/individuals with different views leading the negotiations themselves. Presumably it would be Cameron as PM and Hammond/Osborne(?) as Foreign Secretary
So, essentially, all the LibDems would be signing up to would be to vote in Parliament for a referendum.
The quid pro quo would likely be PR for local government elections.
I must disagree - I think the CoE has bugger all influence but retains its megaphone bully pulpit. It's like Prince Charles pissing and moaning about having no *voice* - a pity party statement he made a decade or so ago and had me LOL in ridicule.
What Balls paid his gardener is mere froth. Though entertaining nonetheless. I wonder whether - even if Labour win - he will be the Chancellor.
[checks betting slips] He'd better be!
Hasn't Milliband refused to confirm that he will be Chancellor?
I just wouldn't be surprised if Ed went for someone more in keeping with what seem to be his instincts on tax / the economy etc.
Like???
No idea really. Angela Eagle? Lucy Powell? Cruddas?
Am probably quite wrong but Balls does not seem like someone who is happy in his position and looking forward to being Chancellor, he does not look like someone who feels that he has his leader's confidence and Ed does not give the impression that he thinks Balls will do what he wants.
I sense tension between them and that, quite apart from anything else, is not good news given the necessary tension that there always is between a PM and a CoE.
Agree that Balls seems semi detached, and it is hard to say Yvette is fully committed.
The one thing I have a problem with regarding the Tories and the EU referendum (and I assume that Cameron would try and finesse whatever deal he got from Brussels through even if it was a dogs breakfast) surely there would be a significant ideological Eurosceptic core (50 plus MPs) that would reject it unless it truly did provide an acceptable deal and if so if it was a dogs breakfast surely then the risks of the party splitting publicly would once again be high and be visible for all to see and potentially the risk of defections (to UKIP) over the issue during and after the referendum campaign surely would be pretty high?
Its for that reason more than any other that I calculated that the referendum offer was not genuine and Cameron did not believe he would be in a position to offer a referendum post May.
So there is one aspect of the 2015 election campaign that I haven't heard any comment on, and I don't know if it is factored in in any way.
What role (if any) will Boris play? Will he be a 'team' player? Will his contribution have a positive or negative effect for the Tory party?
There have been reports of a deal between BoJo and Cameron.
He plays a full role in the campaign, as a team player. In return he gets access to backbenchers and junior ministers to try and build support for a post Cameron leadership challenge (whenever that may be)
Which then leads to the question of if this is worth +/- 1%, 2%, 3% or 4% during the campaign. Instinctively you feel that is can't be a neutral effect, although it may be another factor that moves votes where they don't matter.
What Balls paid his gardener is mere froth. Though entertaining nonetheless. I wonder whether - even if Labour win - he will be the Chancellor.
[checks betting slips] He'd better be!
Hasn't Milliband refused to confirm that he will be Chancellor?
I just wouldn't be surprised if Ed went for someone more in keeping with what seem to be his instincts on tax / the economy etc.
Like???
No idea really. Angela Eagle? Lucy Powell? Cruddas?
Am probably quite wrong but Balls does not seem like someone who is happy in his position and looking forward to being Chancellor, he does not look like someone who feels that he has his leader's confidence and Ed does not give the impression that he thinks Balls will do what he wants.
I sense tension between them and that, quite apart from anything else, is not good news given the necessary tension that there always is between a PM and a CoE.
Agree that Balls seems semi detached, and it is hard to say Yvette is fully committed.
Unfortunately the chances of a Conservative majority without some amazing black swan are pretty much zero as well.
Not according to the betting markets.
The more interesting conundrum is whether the referendum would go ahead if there's a Conservative-led government in a hung parliament. The answer is probably that it would, but obviously that couldn't be guaranteed if the other parties gang up to torpedo it. That's a question for them, though.
They have made it a red line in negotiations, though, and you've got to imagine it would be a Coalition-buster in the event that, say, the LibDems deviously went back on their promises.
Not that you can remotely conceive of that happening, of course
More likely the LDs would want it to be a government negotiation with other member states, meaning that they got to take part and set the red lines.
Unlikely that they will get that in Coalition negotiations.
They will definitely get the ability to campaign on whatever side of the vote they want, and will probably get Quad input into negotiating strategy, but there is no way that you can have two parties/individuals with different views leading the negotiations themselves. Presumably it would be Cameron as PM and Hammond/Osborne(?) as Foreign Secretary
So, essentially, all the LibDems would be signing up to would be to vote in Parliament for a referendum.
The quid pro quo would likely be PR for local government elections.
So long as it's not pure party list, I think that's a pretty good idea. A lot of local government should be about service delivery not politicking and when you get effective one-party states, councilors get lazy
The one thing I have a problem with regarding the Tories and the EU referendum (and I assume that Cameron would try and finesse whatever deal he got from Brussels through even if it was a dogs breakfast) surely there would be a significant ideological Eurosceptic core (50 plus MPs) that would reject it unless it truly did provide an acceptable deal and if so if it was a dogs breakfast surely then the risks of the party splitting publicly would once again be high and be visible for all to see and potentially the risk of defections (to UKIP) over the issue during and after the referendum campaign surely would be pretty high?
Its for that reason more than any other that I calculated that the referendum offer was not genuine and Cameron did not believe he would be in a position to offer a referendum post May.
Interesting: I absolutely agree with the first paragraph, and hence reached the complete opposite conclusion.
The risk of splits (I reckon that Cameron needs to convinced two-thirds of his MPs) is the best guarantee that he will not try to polish a turd.
This poll of FTSE500 bosses doesn't make great reading for Labour - they're going to have to go all in on the "insurgency" approach.
More to the point, it doesn't make great reading for the country, since there's a very distinct risk of an outcome which is very damaging to the economy.
What Balls paid his gardener is mere froth. Though entertaining nonetheless. I wonder whether - even if Labour win - he will be the Chancellor.
[checks betting slips] He'd better be!
Hasn't Milliband refused to confirm that he will be Chancellor?
I just wouldn't be surprised if Ed went for someone more in keeping with what seem to be his instincts on tax / the economy etc.
Like???
No idea really. Angela Eagle? Lucy Powell? Cruddas?
Am probably quite wrong but Balls does not seem like someone who is happy in his position and looking forward to being Chancellor, he does not look like someone who feels that he has his leader's confidence and Ed does not give the impression that he thinks Balls will do what he wants.
I sense tension between them and that, quite apart from anything else, is not good news given the necessary tension that there always is between a PM and a CoE.
Agree that Balls seems semi detached, and it is hard to say Yvette is fully committed.
Maybe they have seen the futility of Socialism?
More likely the futility of Ed Milliband.
Is there a difference?
In the minds of Ed and Yvette, probably. For the rest of us probably not.
Though, on a serious note, I do think like SO that there ought to be a good social democratic party which we could vote for. Currently we don't. And that's a pity.
Car crash at the top of French government given the current sensitivities
France's socialists were at the centre of a bitter anti-semitism row last night as a party grandee accused the Prime Minister of being 'under Jewish influence'.
Roland Dumas, the 92-year-old former foreign minister, said Prime Minister Manuel Valls was pushing a Jewish agenda because of family ties, especially when using terms such as 'Islamo-fascism.'
What Balls paid his gardener is mere froth. Though entertaining nonetheless. I wonder whether - even if Labour win - he will be the Chancellor.
[checks betting slips] He'd better be!
Hasn't Milliband refused to confirm that he will be Chancellor?
I just wouldn't be surprised if Ed went for someone more in keeping with what seem to be his instincts on tax / the economy etc.
Like???
No idea really. Angela Eagle? Lucy Powell? Cruddas?
Am probably quite wrong but Balls does not seem like someone who is happy in his position and looking forward to being Chancellor, he does not look like someone who feels that he has his leader's confidence and Ed does not give the impression that he thinks Balls will do what he wants.
I sense tension between them and that, quite apart from anything else, is not good news given the necessary tension that there always is between a PM and a CoE.
Agree that Balls seems semi detached, and it is hard to say Yvette is fully committed.
Maybe they have seen the futility of Socialism?
More likely the futility of Ed Milliband.
Is there a difference?
In the minds of Ed and Yvette, probably. For the rest of us probably not.
Though, on a serious note, I do think like SO that there ought to be a good social democratic party which we could vote for. Currently we don't. And that's a pity.
Dr Nabavi has been telling us that Cameron would rather cut off his testicles with a rusty knife than weasel on the EU referendum. Given Cast Iron Dave's track record for weaselling I would say that was the sound of hope triumphing over experience, but we shall see.
In the near-inconceivable scenario of him weaselling on it, the Conservative Party would be the ones wielding the rusty knife. The chances of the referendum not happening (if there's a Conservative majority) are zero.
Unfortunately the chances of a Conservative majority without some amazing black swan are pretty much zero as well.
The detail in the ICM Guardian poll makes for happy reading for the Conservatives. It suggests a swing to the Tories in the marginals, with Labour picking up lots of 2010 Lib Dems in safe Conservative seats.
That, and a dozen Lib Dem seats, would give the Conservatives a majority.
The crossbreaks in the ICM poll are far too small to analyse as the Guardian have tried to do.
Anthony Wells @anthonyjwells · 14h 14 hours ago @benlauderdale it was caveated as "especially small", but really, 27 isn't especially small, it's worthless. A modest MoE of +/- 20%
Channel 4 film on UKIP going well, 1000+ complaints already and lambasted a variously biased, anti-democratic and crap across the political spectrum. People seem to particularly dislike the cutting of real live footage of kipper personalities with actors doing a load of hyperbolic race baiting.
Channel 4 film on UKIP going well, 1000+ complaints already and lambasted a variously biased, anti-democratic and crap across the political spectrum. People seem to particularly dislike the cutting of real live footage of kipper personalities with actors doing a load of hyperbolic race baiting.
Looks like Tspiras has 81% approval with the Greek public for his current approach with the EU.
Delusional.
Tsipras is going to be utterly defeated. The Greeks will soon be using a currency that buys them a third of what the euro bought them.
Or there will be a humiliating climb down by Greece
The alternative would be for the politician not to follow the democratic will of the people. I think the Greek people are furious and may eventually be disappointed, but SYRIZA appear to be playing a straight bat with the mandate they were given.
Car crash at the top of French government given the current sensitivities
France's socialists were at the centre of a bitter anti-semitism row last night as a party grandee accused the Prime Minister of being 'under Jewish influence'.
Roland Dumas, the 92-year-old former foreign minister, said Prime Minister Manuel Valls was pushing a Jewish agenda because of family ties, especially when using terms such as 'Islamo-fascism.'
Amazing how the old tropes are regularly wheeled out.
Well before the growth of the Muslim community, France has had a troubling record of its own on anti-semitism.
Anti-semitism is like Japanese knotweed: leave a tiny amount and it will spread, superficially attractive to some people but destructive and hard to eradicate.
(I'm not trying to be flippant here. It is something which troubles me greatly.)
Looks like Tspiras has 81% approval with the Greek public for his current approach with the EU.
Delusional.
Tsipras is going to be utterly defeated. The Greeks will soon be using a currency that buys them a third of what the euro bought them.
Or there will be a humiliating climb down by Greece
The alternative would be for the politician not to follow the democratic will of the people. I think the Greek people are furious and may eventually be disappointed, but SYRIZA appear to be playing a straight bat with the mandate they were given.
What are the chances of the Generals 'intervening'?
Hmnn. I'll take a look. Gower is natural tory country, quite rural with some very posh expensive houses overlooking the peninsula's stunning countryside.
My real 'tenner for a laugh ' bet is Aberavon for UKIP. It is an old school white working class area. Ed won't go down well there, neither will welsh payroll aristocracy Kinnock.
What is it about Ed Miliband and envelopes? Remember the Labour leadership election, and what the union printed on the outside of the ballot papers.
In my marginal constituency the Tories did something similar with their campaign on the mansion tax sending something out which made it look like a council tax demand. All parties do it.
In fact, the following long-shot Con Gains in Wales may be of interest too:
Alyn and Deeside 12/1 Vale of Clwyd 12/1 Clwyd South 14/1 Delyn 14/1
All Lab majorities in the 2k-3k range (though as Welsh seats are small that's 6-8%). Not a massive LD vote to squeeze. 14/1 Delyn looks like the pick of those.
Dr Nabavi has been telling us that Cameron would rather cut off his testicles with a rusty knife than weasel on the EU referendum. Given Cast Iron Dave's track record for weaselling I would say that was the sound of hope triumphing over experience, but we shall see.
In the near-inconceivable scenario of him weaselling on it, the Conservative Party would be the ones wielding the rusty knife. The chances of the referendum not happening (if there's a Conservative majority) are zero.
Unfortunately the chances of a Conservative majority without some amazing black swan are pretty much zero as well.
The detail in the ICM Guardian poll makes for happy reading for the Conservatives. It suggests a swing to the Tories in the marginals, with Labour picking up lots of 2010 Lib Dems in safe Conservative seats.
That, and a dozen Lib Dem seats, would give the Conservatives a majority.
The crossbreaks in the ICM poll are far too small to analyse as the Guardian have tried to do.
Anthony Wells @anthonyjwells · 14h 14 hours ago @benlauderdale it was caveated as "especially small", but really, 27 isn't especially small, it's worthless. A modest MoE of +/- 20%
That's on the Lib Dem held seats. I think the sample size is a bit bigger for the other categories, though I haven't seen the data tables.
What Balls paid his gardener is mere froth. Though entertaining nonetheless. I wonder whether - even if Labour win - he will be the Chancellor.
[checks betting slips] He'd better be!
Hasn't Milliband refused to confirm that he will be Chancellor?
I just wouldn't be surprised if Ed went for someone more in keeping with what seem to be his instincts on tax / the economy etc.
Like???
No idea really. Angela Eagle? Lucy Powell? Cruddas?
Am probably quite wrong but Balls does not seem like someone who is happy in his position and looking forward to being Chancellor, he does not look like someone who feels that he has his leader's confidence and Ed does not give the impression that he thinks Balls will do what he wants.
I sense tension between them and that, quite apart from anything else, is not good news given the necessary tension that there always is between a PM and a CoE.
Agree that Balls seems semi detached, and it is hard to say Yvette is fully committed.
Maybe they have seen the futility of Socialism?
More likely the futility of Ed Milliband.
Is there a difference?
In the minds of Ed and Yvette, probably. For the rest of us probably not.
Though, on a serious note, I do think like SO that there ought to be a good social democratic party which we could vote for. Currently we don't. And that's a pity.
I suppose its a matter of labels but from where I sit we have at least three national Social Democratic parties in this country. There are no major policy differences between Labour, Lib Dem and Conservative parties and UKIP only really disagrees with them on two or three issues.
The problem is not that there is not a decent Social Democracy party, it is more that the three historically big parties are full of useless fools who couldn't organise a piss up in a brewery and who are seen as corrupt, with a small c, and self-serving.
Comments
Kippers will cost us the referendum yet.
That, and a dozen Lib Dem seats, would give the Conservatives a majority.
Yes if you want a referendum vote Con.
If you have a problem with immigrants - vote Ukip.
If you don't like Labour in places like Heywood & Middleton, or almost anywhere North of the Watford gap, vote UKIP because they have a chance to cost Miliband a seat, and the Tories, don't.
The pressure from some cabinet members, Gove and Hammond for two:
High profile Tory mouthpieces, Boris is now advocating it, Rees Mogg and others:
Then about 40% of backbenchers actively want it, maybe more:
Then add in the sceptic section of the press and public demand:
Then add in the possibility that the chances of a Tory getting re elected in 2020 is a virtual nil if they renege on this manifesto commitment:
I think you are in a position where you could expect all Tory MPs except the odd Ken Clarke to support holding an In / Out a referendum.
Smart or not, no one can complain about their tax affairs being pried into now,
The Labour party must be "bricking" themselves about what more can come out.
Obviously the simple desire to maximise vote share applies too; they are - like the LDs in times past - able to push different messages in different seats.
Not that you can remotely conceive of that happening, of course
Is the problem. EU external border control is essentially optional, as undesirables can buy an EU passport from the right country, after which they are inside the tent and we have no effective border control against them.
Greece exiting the euro could be a black swan event. So could some ghastly atrocity on the streets of Rome or London.
What Balls paid his gardener is mere froth. Though entertaining nonetheless. I wonder whether - even if Labour win - he will be the Chancellor. He seems unhappy in the role and EdM does not appear to have confidence in him. If not him, who might it be?
What role (if any) will Boris play?
Will he be a 'team' player?
Will his contribution have a positive or negative effect for the Tory party?
I thought that under the Treaty of Rome you do have the right to limit the free movement of even EU nationals for national security reasons. So we could close our borders I think. It's more a question of political will and the resources needed for doing so.
And it's only a temporary solution anyway. Europe has to fight on a united basis against this threat to its civilisation.
I better get my coat now before the PB Nats notice
Edit: Oh damn, as soon as I posted that Dair turns up, he must be telepathic!
I just wouldn't be surprised if Ed went for someone more in keeping with what seem to be his instincts on tax / the economy etc.
First you disaffect them, then you abuse them and then you blame them for your failure. Yep that will bring them back to the fold.
What after that? Some McCarthyite trial of little old men and ladies who admit they voted UKIP?. A Grand Inquisition of those who refuse to tell you who they voted for with a ducking stool for those who do not break under torture?
How long is it going to take for certain Tories to accept that they are responsible for their own actions and their failures are first and foremost the result of those actions.
How long will it take for such Tories to realise that the Tory party does not own those voters votes and they do not owe the Tory party anything
All major religions are based on the individuals relationship with the community.
Am probably quite wrong but Balls does not seem like someone who is happy in his position and looking forward to being Chancellor, he does not look like someone who feels that he has his leader's confidence and Ed does not give the impression that he thinks Balls will do what he wants.
I sense tension between them and that, quite apart from anything else, is not good news given the necessary tension that there always is between a PM and a CoE.
"Lancashire county councillor David Whipp has won the World Meat Pie championship, which travelled this year all the way to Barnoldswick, Lancashire. Winning a world meat pie contest with a vegetarian pie is simply out of this world."
LibDem percentage set to rise significantly!
Maybe they have seen the futility of Socialism?
They need to learn how the pork barrel works and get backing Plaid.
In any case, I don't think there's much difference between Miliband and Balls on policy. Both are spendy, taxy, borrow types. Miliband is marginally more ideological and Balls more pragmatic but there's not much in it.
Yes, the Times, Telegraph, Express and the Mail are all having a great time at the expense of the Labour leadership.
You would have thought that at least one of their "spin doctors" had watched The Thick Of It episode mentioned on here the other night.
Especially given that the press would not be kind to Ed after Levenson.
That's more assurance than you get on most things in politics
They will definitely get the ability to campaign on whatever side of the vote they want, and will probably get Quad input into negotiating strategy, but there is no way that you can have two parties/individuals with different views leading the negotiations themselves. Presumably it would be Cameron as PM and Hammond/Osborne(?) as Foreign Secretary
So, essentially, all the LibDems would be signing up to would be to vote in Parliament for a referendum.
Support cutting benefits for overweight who don't seek treatment (net)
Con: +61
Lab: -4
LibD: +23
UKIP: +45
http://cdn.yougov.com/cumulus_uploads/document/25y6zxwimo/RedBox_Results_150216_Sickness_Benefits_Website.pdf
He plays a full role in the campaign, as a team player. In return he gets access to backbenchers and junior ministers to try and build support for a post Cameron leadership challenge (whenever that may be)
*scratches head*
Its for that reason more than any other that I calculated that the referendum offer was not genuine and Cameron did not believe he would be in a position to offer a referendum post May.
https://twitter.com/benatipsosmori/status/567634435341041664
The risk of splits (I reckon that Cameron needs to convinced two-thirds of his MPs) is the best guarantee that he will not try to polish a turd.
Though, on a serious note, I do think like SO that there ought to be a good social democratic party which we could vote for. Currently we don't. And that's a pity.
What is interesting about that graph is those labour votes don#t seem to have gone anywhere.
How big might the shy kipper/tory taffia be? my hunch is a bit bigger than people think
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2956278/Ed-misleading-voters-letters-look-like-NHS-Miliband-fire-cruel-mail-patients-elderly-mistaken-test-results.html
Anthony Wells @anthonyjwells · 14h 14 hours ago
@benlauderdale it was caveated as "especially small", but really, 27 isn't especially small, it's worthless. A modest MoE of +/- 20%
Even if the cash was printed locally, the paper would need to be shipped in from a specialist overseas manufacturer.
From a betting perspective, the following seats may be of interest.
Con HOLD Aberconwy 4/9
Con HOLD Vale of Glamorgan 1/2
Con HOLD Carmarthen West etc. 4/7
Con HOLD Cardiff North 7/2
and if you are feeling brave / lightheaded
Con GAIN Gower 10/1
Con GAIN Bridgend 10/1
Gower bet preferred as despite a bigger majority the Labour MP is standing down there.
What is it about Ed Miliband and envelopes? Remember the Labour leadership election, and what the union printed on the outside of the ballot papers.
http://order-order.com/2015/02/17/everyone-flips-out-at-c4s-100daysofukip/
http://order-order.com/2015/02/17/1000-complaints-and-counting-for-100daysofukip/
Delusional.
Tsipras is going to be utterly defeated. The Greeks will soon be using a currency that buys them a third of what the euro bought them.
Or there will be a humiliating climb down by Greece
Amazing how the old tropes are regularly wheeled out.
Well before the growth of the Muslim community, France has had a troubling record of its own on anti-semitism.
Anti-semitism is like Japanese knotweed: leave a tiny amount and it will spread, superficially attractive to some people but destructive and hard to eradicate.
(I'm not trying to be flippant here. It is something which troubles me greatly.)
Jeremy Hunt, probably the mildest man in frontline UK politics is a bully according to Polly Toynbee.
http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2015/feb/17/jeremy-hunt-nhs-bully-in-chief-health-secretary-staff
Hmnn. I'll take a look. Gower is natural tory country, quite rural with some very posh expensive houses overlooking the peninsula's stunning countryside.
My real 'tenner for a laugh ' bet is Aberavon for UKIP. It is an old school white working class area. Ed won't go down well there, neither will welsh payroll aristocracy Kinnock.
Alyn and Deeside 12/1
Vale of Clwyd 12/1
Clwyd South 14/1
Delyn 14/1
All Lab majorities in the 2k-3k range (though as Welsh seats are small that's 6-8%). Not a massive LD vote to squeeze. 14/1 Delyn looks like the pick of those.
The problem is not that there is not a decent Social Democracy party, it is more that the three historically big parties are full of useless fools who couldn't organise a piss up in a brewery and who are seen as corrupt, with a small c, and self-serving.
Is that the ghost of Dreyfus I see?