Populus have gone from giving the Conservatives and Labour a high combined share, to no better than average, over the past few weeks. Linked to that, UKIP seem to be hitting 15% routinely with them, now, rather than 12% or so. Have they changed their weightings?
YES. UKIP sub 300 in the unweighted is not a brilliant poll for UKIP.
This is a worse poll for UKIP than some of their 13% UKIP polls last year.
Have UKIP ever lost a seat/election which they were favourites to win?
They haven't won a seat where the incumbent hasn't defected.
That's true, how long you think it will last? I don't suppose you want to bet, as you never do, but
What price UKIP to win a seat at the GE that they don't currently hold? You make the price
The big thing in UKIP's favour is that they are guaranteed as much broadcast media coverage as the Lib Dems in the election campaign, ie 80% of the coverage for Labour and Conservatives. That has always boosted the Lib Dem rating in the past, and may do the same for UKIP.
Why would you follow Dan Hodges in the first place? You can read his every thought in real time on pb.
Has Dan The Man ever posted here?
Oh, that Dan The Man, I thought you meant the Member of the European Parliament for South East England.
Him to? I'm not fussed which Dan The Man!
If Dan Hannan was Conservative leader I reckon UKIP would be ~ 7% and Conservatives with a decent lead over Labour.
Nah.
Labour would use Dan's comments about the NHS 24/7 and Lab would have a significant lead.
And I speak as someone who is a fan of Mr Hannan
Hannan happens to be right about the NHS, its just that the public are not ready to hear it. The NHS needs another £30bn in the next five years, just to stand still, that's the equivalent of 5% on the basic rate on income tax, no government cant propose that an get elected, no voter would believe all that 5% would go to the NHS for one thing.
NHS needs a Nixon to China moment. A Labour government is going to have to reform it. We're living too long in an era of astonishingly impressive but astonishingly expensive medicine. NHS as it is today surely cannot and will not last
More simplistic arguments on the finances of the NHS.
This is not zero-sum - those costs will still exist whether inside or outside the public sphere.
So the question is where does the burden fall? Old age care is tremendously expensive and the costs are rising and even insurance based systems are groaning to support the cost.
The rich can support the rising premiums of course, which is why the Right quite likes the idea of shunting people onto insurance based schemes - conveniently forgetting that for most ordinary people that is locking them in to ever rising cost burdens scoffing more and more of their disposable income.
Still waiting to hear your solution Ben, you wont get elected proposing 5% on the basic rate of income tax, so what do you propose, we are all ears.....
Lumping the risk on ordinary people isn't a solution.
Why would you follow Dan Hodges in the first place? You can read his every thought in real time on pb.
Has Dan The Man ever posted here?
Oh, that Dan The Man, I thought you meant the Member of the European Parliament for South East England.
Him to? I'm not fussed which Dan The Man!
If Dan Hannan was Conservative leader I reckon UKIP would be ~ 7% and Conservatives with a decent lead over Labour.
Nah.
Labour would use Dan's comments about the NHS 24/7 and Lab would have a significant lead.
And I speak as someone who is a fan of Mr Hannan
Hannan happens to be right about the NHS, its just that the public are not ready to hear it. The NHS needs another £30bn in the next five years, just to stand still, that's the equivalent of 5% on the basic rate on income tax, no government cant propose that an get elected, no voter would believe all that 5% would go to the NHS for one thing.
NHS needs a Nixon to China moment. A Labour government is going to have to reform it. We're living too long in an era of astonishingly impressive but astonishingly expensive medicine. NHS as it is today surely cannot and will not last
More simplistic arguments on the finances of the NHS.
This is not zero-sum - those costs will still exist whether inside or outside the public sphere.
So the question is where does the burden fall? Old age care is tremendously expensive and the costs are rising and even insurance based systems are groaning to support the cost.
The rich can support the rising premiums of course, which is why the Right quite likes the idea of shunting people onto insurance based schemes - conveniently forgetting that for most ordinary people that is locking them in to ever rising cost burdens scoffing more and more of their disposable income.
Still waiting to hear your solution Ben, you wont get elected proposing 5% on the basic rate of income tax, so what do you propose, we are all ears.....
Lumping the risk on ordinary people isn't a solution.
A levy on trade union subs, final salary pensions, and houses oop north should take care of it. Hits all the right people too.
Populus have gone from giving the Conservatives and Labour a high combined share, to no better than average, over the past few weeks. Linked to that, UKIP seem to be hitting 15% routinely with them, now, rather than 12% or so. Have they changed their weightings?
Why would you follow Dan Hodges in the first place? You can read his every thought in real time on pb.
Has Dan The Man ever posted here?
Oh, that Dan The Man, I thought you meant the Member of the European Parliament for South East England.
Him to? I'm not fussed which Dan The Man!
If Dan Hannan was Conservative leader I reckon UKIP would be ~ 7% and Conservatives with a decent lead over Labour.
Nah.
Labour would use Dan's comments about the NHS 24/7 and Lab would have a significant lead.
And I speak as someone who is a fan of Mr Hannan
Hannan happens to be right about the NHS, its just that the public are not ready to hear it. The NHS needs another £30bn in the next five years, just to stand still, that's the equivalent of 5% on the basic rate on income tax, no government cant propose that an get elected, no voter would believe all that 5% would go to the NHS for one thing.
NHS needs a Nixon to China moment. A Labour government is going to have to reform it. We're living too long in an era of astonishingly impressive but astonishingly expensive medicine. NHS as it is today surely cannot and will not last
More simplistic arguments on the finances of the NHS.
This is not zero-sum - those costs will still exist whether inside or outside the public sphere.
So the question is where does the burden fall? Old age care is tremendously expensive and the costs are rising and even insurance based systems are groaning to support the cost.
The rich can support the rising premiums of course, which is why the Right quite likes the idea of shunting people onto insurance based schemes - conveniently forgetting that for most ordinary people that is locking them in to ever rising cost burdens scoffing more and more of their disposable income.
Still waiting to hear your solution Ben, you wont get elected proposing 5% on the basic rate of income tax, so what do you propose, we are all ears.....
Lumping the risk on ordinary people isn't a solution.
So what is the solution. Bearing in mind that markets are rational and capital is highly mobile.
PoliticsHome @politicshome 5m5 minutes ago Ed Miliband says Labour "will ensure executive pay is connected to performance" by putting employees on remuneration committees
Not sure how the first part is ensured by the second part, but I am sure it sounds good in the papers.
I've done a lot of Board level work with Scandi companies where there are elected employee representative directors. In the main, they have been valuable additions to the discussions, with different perspectives and non-political. I would be very resistant to unions getting to appoint directors, because I think they would be political, but most employees are pretty sensible
Fair enough Charles.
Interesting policy idea from Ed.
Remco membership is pretty pointless, to be honest, and he's made it a political remit straight away.
Just make them normal directors - with all the responsibilities and duties of directors - but elected by employees not shareholders.
So, not really an interesting policy idea from Ed: he's trying to be too clever by half. Once a tinkerer, always a tinkerer.
Populus have gone from giving the Conservatives and Labour a high combined share, to no better than average, over the past few weeks. Linked to that, UKIP seem to be hitting 15% routinely with them, now, rather than 12% or so. Have they changed their weightings?
YES. UKIP sub 300 in the unweighted is not a brilliant poll for UKIP.
This is a worse poll for UKIP than some of their 13% UKIP polls last year.
Outside Greater London, and core cities, UKIP must now be polling c.20% in England. In their best counties (Essex, Kent, Lincs. Staffs, South Yorks., Cornwall) that must be more like 25-30%.
After a disastrous weekend for Labour exclusively in the rightwing press (copyright certain Tories on here), the Tories, er, flatline.
As they have for 4 years.
After Labour's best week on record, where Labour actually managed to land a punch or two, and they are...... down. Labour sticking it to the Tories about tax and donors I am sure their voters will run away in horror.... or not.
Why would you follow Dan Hodges in the first place? You can read his every thought in real time on pb.
Has Dan The Man ever posted here?
Oh, that Dan The Man, I thought you meant the Member of the European Parliament for South East England.
Him to? I'm not fussed which Dan The Man!
If Dan Hannan was Conservative leader I reckon UKIP would be ~ 7% and Conservatives with a decent lead over Labour.
Nah.
Labour would use Dan's comments about the NHS 24/7 and Lab would have a significant lead.
And I speak as someone who is a fan of Mr Hannan
Hannan happens to be right about the NHS, its just that the public are not ready to hear it. The NHS needs another £30bn in the next five years, just to stand still, that's the equivalent of 5% on the basic rate on income tax, no government cant propose that an get elected, no voter would believe all that 5% would go to the NHS for one thing.
NHS needs a Nixon to China moment. A Labour government is going to have to reform it. We're living too long in an era of astonishingly impressive but astonishingly expensive medicine. NHS as it is today surely cannot and will not last
More simplistic arguments on the finances of the NHS.
This is not zero-sum - those costs will still exist whether inside or outside the public sphere.
So the question is where does the burden fall? Old age care is tremendously expensive and the costs are rising and even insurance based systems are groaning to support the cost.
The rich can support the rising premiums of course, which is why the Right quite likes the idea of shunting people onto insurance based schemes - conveniently forgetting that for most ordinary people that is locking them in to ever rising cost burdens scoffing more and more of their disposable income.
Still waiting to hear your solution Ben, you wont get elected proposing 5% on the basic rate of income tax, so what do you propose, we are all ears.....
Lumping the risk on ordinary people isn't a solution.
So what is the solution. Bearing in mind that markets are rational and capital is highly mobile.
After a disastrous weekend for Labour exclusively in the rightwing press (copyright certain Tories on here), the Tories, er, flatline.
As they have for 4 years.
Well, fieldwork was 13th-15th, so only a very small part of it will have been affected by the Sundays.
But I don't think there's any getting away from the fact that last week we moved from Lab +0.5 to about Lab +2 - the question is whether that's ephemeral or not.
Have UKIP ever lost a seat/election which they were favourites to win?
They haven't won a seat where the incumbent hasn't defected.
That's true, how long you think it will last? I don't suppose you want to bet, as you never do, but
What price UKIP to win a seat at the GE that they don't currently hold? You make the price
The big thing in UKIP's favour is that they are guaranteed as much broadcast media coverage as the Lib Dems in the election campaign, ie 80% of the coverage for Labour and Conservatives. That has always boosted the Lib Dem rating in the past, and may do the same for UKIP.
Big Ukip publicity tonight on C4 remember !
C4 9pm
UKIP: The First 100 Days
A ground-breaking and provocative fictional documentary set in a fabricated future where UKIP have won the 2015 general election.
"A Ukip government would lead to riots in the streets and the loss of millions of jobs after the UK leaves the EU, according to Channel 4 docudrama screening tomorrow.
Ukip: The First 100 Days mixes archive footage with scripted scenes featuring actress Priyanga Burford playing the part of the party's only Asian woman MP.
The show predicts riots in the streets between protesters for and against the raids and features a factory closing after EU withdrawal.""
PoliticsHome @politicshome 5m5 minutes ago Ed Miliband says Labour "will ensure executive pay is connected to performance" by putting employees on remuneration committees
Not sure how the first part is ensured by the second part, but I am sure it sounds good in the papers.
I've done a lot of Board level work with Scandi companies where there are elected employee representative directors. In the main, they have been valuable additions to the discussions, with different perspectives and non-political. I would be very resistant to unions getting to appoint directors, because I think they would be political, but most employees are pretty sensible
Fair enough Charles.
Interesting policy idea from Ed.
Remco membership is pretty pointless, to be honest, and he's made it a political remit straight away.
Just make them normal directors - with all the responsibilities and duties of directors - but elected by employees not shareholders.
So, not really an interesting policy idea from Ed: he's trying to be too clever by half. Once a tinkerer, always a tinkerer.
Why would you follow Dan Hodges in the first place? You can read his every thought in real time on pb.
Has Dan The Man ever posted here?
Oh, that Dan The Man, I thought you meant the Member of the European Parliament for South East England.
Him to? I'm not fussed which Dan The Man!
If Dan Hannan was Conservative leader I reckon UKIP would be ~ 7% and Conservatives with a decent lead over Labour.
Nah.
Labour would use Dan's comments about the NHS 24/7 and Lab would have a significant lead.
And I speak as someone who is a fan of Mr Hannan
Hannan happens to be right about the NHS, its just that the public are not ready to hear it. The NHS needs another £30bn in the next five years, just to stand still, that's the equivalent of 5% on the basic rate on income tax, no government cant propose that an get elected, no voter would believe all that 5% would go to the NHS for one thing.
NHS needs a Nixon to China moment. A Labour government is going to have to reform it. We're living too long in an era of astonishingly impressive but astonishingly expensive medicine. NHS as it is today surely cannot and will not last
More simplistic arguments on the finances of the NHS.
This is not zero-sum - those costs will still exist whether inside or outside the public sphere.
So the question is where does the burden fall? Old age care is tremendously expensive and the costs are rising and even insurance based systems are groaning to support the cost.
The rich can support the rising premiums of course, which is why the Right quite likes the idea of shunting people onto insurance based schemes - conveniently forgetting that for most ordinary people that is locking them in to ever rising cost burdens scoffing more and more of their disposable income.
Still waiting to hear your solution Ben, you wont get elected proposing 5% on the basic rate of income tax, so what do you propose, we are all ears.....
Lumping the risk on ordinary people isn't a solution.
So what is the solution. Bearing in mind that markets are rational and capital is highly mobile.
Markets are rational? Hahahahahaha
Care to actually rebut it because you have failed with every single economic forecast for the last five years Ben.
Populus have gone from giving the Conservatives and Labour a high combined share, to no better than average, over the past few weeks. Linked to that, UKIP seem to be hitting 15% routinely with them, now, rather than 12% or so. Have they changed their weightings?
So what is the solution. Bearing in mind that markets are rational and capital is highly mobile.
Markets are rational? Hahahahahaha
Ok so maybe they aren't... we are still waiting for your answer. Throwing rocks at other people's ideas is very easy, and very left-wing, what do YOU think we should do to pay for the extra £30bn the NHS is going to need each year by 2020.
Have UKIP ever lost a seat/election which they were favourites to win?
They haven't won a seat where the incumbent hasn't defected.
That's true, how long you think it will last? I don't suppose you want to bet, as you never do, but
What price UKIP to win a seat at the GE that they don't currently hold? You make the price
The big thing in UKIP's favour is that they are guaranteed as much broadcast media coverage as the Lib Dems in the election campaign, ie 80% of the coverage for Labour and Conservatives. That has always boosted the Lib Dem rating in the past, and may do the same for UKIP.
Big Ukip publicity tonight on C4 remember !
C4 9pm
UKIP: The First 100 Days
A ground-breaking and provocative fictional documentary set in a fabricated future where UKIP have won the 2015 general election.
"A Ukip government would lead to riots in the streets and the loss of millions of jobs after the UK leaves the EU, according to Channel 4 docudrama screening tomorrow.
Ukip: The First 100 Days mixes archive footage with scripted scenes featuring actress Priyanga Burford playing the part of the party's only Asian woman MP.
The show predicts riots in the streets between protesters for and against the raids and features a factory closing after EU withdrawal.""
I'm honestly surprised that UKIP have allowed this to be broadcast in an election year on terrestrial TV. They should have killed this off or at least gotten it delayed until after May. It is a hit and run by Channel 4 to make UKIP look bad and nothing more.
I understand the Greens are going to have a candidate in every seat in England and Wales, the deposits having been crowdfunded.
Best news of the day
(For the Tories)
Yougov has the Greens on 8% in the South West, which is excellent news for the Tories, if repeated in a general election. If Yougov are correct, the Conservatives can drop quite a lot of support in the South West, yet still end up with more seats than they started.
I read one analysis which suggested the Conservatives might make a clean sweep in Cornwall with only 30% of the vote.
Have UKIP ever lost a seat/election which they were favourites to win?
They haven't won a seat where the incumbent hasn't defected.
That's true, how long you think it will last? I don't suppose you want to bet, as you never do, but
What price UKIP to win a seat at the GE that they don't currently hold? You make the price
The big thing in UKIP's favour is that they are guaranteed as much broadcast media coverage as the Lib Dems in the election campaign, ie 80% of the coverage for Labour and Conservatives. That has always boosted the Lib Dem rating in the past, and may do the same for UKIP.
That's not actually quite true.
UKIP are a major party in England & Wales, but not Scotland, whereas the Lib Dems are a major party in England & Wales and Scotland.
I was doing some research on what this would mean theoretically during the campaign, and it might not favour UKIP as much as it does the Lib Dems, when the news is on a national basis.
Have UKIP ever lost a seat/election which they were favourites to win?
They haven't won a seat where the incumbent hasn't defected.
That's true, how long you think it will last? I don't suppose you want to bet, as you never do, but
What price UKIP to win a seat at the GE that they don't currently hold? You make the price
The big thing in UKIP's favour is that they are guaranteed as much broadcast media coverage as the Lib Dems in the election campaign, ie 80% of the coverage for Labour and Conservatives. That has always boosted the Lib Dem rating in the past, and may do the same for UKIP.
Big Ukip publicity tonight on C4 remember !
C4 9pm
UKIP: The First 100 Days
A ground-breaking and provocative fictional documentary set in a fabricated future where UKIP have won the 2015 general election.
"A Ukip government would lead to riots in the streets and the loss of millions of jobs after the UK leaves the EU, according to Channel 4 docudrama screening tomorrow.
Ukip: The First 100 Days mixes archive footage with scripted scenes featuring actress Priyanga Burford playing the part of the party's only Asian woman MP.
The show predicts riots in the streets between protesters for and against the raids and features a factory closing after EU withdrawal.""
Looks like the film maker is part of the establishment...
"Investigative journalist Chris Atkins, who made the 2009 documentary Starsuckers to reveal the “shams and deceit” involved in celebrity reporting, is accused of being involved in a complex five-year scam to cheat the taxman, along with 12 others, including seven investment bankers.
The scheme supposedly enabled the investment bankers, three of whom are former employees of the state-owned Royal Bank of Scotland, to submit bogus tax returns to claim tax relief on losses between January 2007 and February 2012.
The alleged plot is said to relate to Starsuckers and several other films which were never made.
Atkins is facing a single count of conspiring to cheat the public revenue. Another Hampstead man, investment banker Hamish Maclellan, 41, of South Hill Park, faces the same charge."
Have UKIP ever lost a seat/election which they were favourites to win?
They haven't won a seat where the incumbent hasn't defected.
That's true, how long you think it will last? I don't suppose you want to bet, as you never do, but
What price UKIP to win a seat at the GE that they don't currently hold? You make the price
The big thing in UKIP's favour is that they are guaranteed as much broadcast media coverage as the Lib Dems in the election campaign, ie 80% of the coverage for Labour and Conservatives. That has always boosted the Lib Dem rating in the past, and may do the same for UKIP.
Big Ukip publicity tonight on C4 remember !
C4 9pm
UKIP: The First 100 Days
A ground-breaking and provocative fictional documentary set in a fabricated future where UKIP have won the 2015 general election.
"A Ukip government would lead to riots in the streets and the loss of millions of jobs after the UK leaves the EU, according to Channel 4 docudrama screening tomorrow.
Ukip: The First 100 Days mixes archive footage with scripted scenes featuring actress Priyanga Burford playing the part of the party's only Asian woman MP.
The show predicts riots in the streets between protesters for and against the raids and features a factory closing after EU withdrawal.""
I'm honestly surprised that UKIP have allowed this to be broadcast in an election year on terrestrial TV. They should have killed this off or at least gotten it delayed until after May. It is a hit and run by Channel 4 to make UKIP look bad and nothing more.
I'm not convinced. If I were UKIP I'd be tempted... it would only encourage my supporters to go out and vote. Plus I could "respond" and have my views on the papers.
It wouldn't work for the major parties, but UKIP is different.
Have UKIP ever lost a seat/election which they were favourites to win?
They haven't won a seat where the incumbent hasn't defected.
That's true, how long you think it will last? I don't suppose you want to bet, as you never do, but
What price UKIP to win a seat at the GE that they don't currently hold? You make the price
The big thing in UKIP's favour is that they are guaranteed as much broadcast media coverage as the Lib Dems in the election campaign, ie 80% of the coverage for Labour and Conservatives. That has always boosted the Lib Dem rating in the past, and may do the same for UKIP.
Big Ukip publicity tonight on C4 remember !
C4 9pm
UKIP: The First 100 Days
A ground-breaking and provocative fictional documentary set in a fabricated future where UKIP have won the 2015 general election.
"A Ukip government would lead to riots in the streets and the loss of millions of jobs after the UK leaves the EU, according to Channel 4 docudrama screening tomorrow.
Ukip: The First 100 Days mixes archive footage with scripted scenes featuring actress Priyanga Burford playing the part of the party's only Asian woman MP.
The show predicts riots in the streets between protesters for and against the raids and features a factory closing after EU withdrawal.""
I'm honestly surprised that UKIP have allowed this to be broadcast in an election year on terrestrial TV. They should have killed this off or at least gotten it delayed until after May. It is a hit and run by Channel 4 to make UKIP look bad and nothing more.
Both the people watching Ch4 probably wont vote anyway
After a disastrous weekend for Labour exclusively in the rightwing press (copyright certain Tories on here), the Tories, er, flatline.
As they have for 4 years.
Well, fieldwork was 13th-15th, so only a very small part of it will have been affected by the Sundays.
But I don't think there's any getting away from the fact that last week we moved from Lab +0.5 to about Lab +2 - the question is whether that's ephemeral or not.
A 2% lead is pretty much where Populus have been since the end of October. Oddly, when they were putting Labour ahead by c.5% in the Summer, they did have the occasional Conservative lead, but have produced no Conservative lead since the gap narrowed.
''Outside Greater London, and core cities, UKIP must now be polling c.20% in England. In their best counties (Essex, Kent, Lincs. Staffs, South Yorks., Cornwall) that must be more like 25-30%.''
If that is true, its curtains for the tories, surely.
PoliticsHome @politicshome 5m5 minutes ago Ed Miliband says Labour "will ensure executive pay is connected to performance" by putting employees on remuneration committees
Not sure how the first part is ensured by the second part, but I am sure it sounds good in the papers.
I've done a lot of Board level work with Scandi companies where there are elected employee representative directors. In the main, they have been valuable additions to the discussions, with different perspectives and non-political. I would be very resistant to unions getting to appoint directors, because I think they would be political, but most employees are pretty sensible
Fair enough Charles.
Interesting policy idea from Ed.
Remco membership is pretty pointless, to be honest, and he's made it a political remit straight away.
Just make them normal directors - with all the responsibilities and duties of directors - but elected by employees not shareholders.
So, not really an interesting policy idea from Ed: he's trying to be too clever by half. Once a tinkerer, always a tinkerer.
He's the Heir to Brown.
Alas we don't really have a mechanism for electing employee representatives other than unions (we stagger on where they are already required, such as ICE). I worked on a similar project to put a Scandanavian/German system in place in one company and that was the immediate problem.
Have UKIP ever lost a seat/election which they were favourites to win?
They haven't won a seat where the incumbent hasn't defected.
That's true, how long you think it will last? I don't suppose you want to bet, as you never do, but
What price UKIP to win a seat at the GE that they don't currently hold? You make the price
The big thing in UKIP's favour is that they are guaranteed as much broadcast media coverage as the Lib Dems in the election campaign, ie 80% of the coverage for Labour and Conservatives. That has always boosted the Lib Dem rating in the past, and may do the same for UKIP.
Big Ukip publicity tonight on C4 remember !
C4 9pm
UKIP: The First 100 Days
A ground-breaking and provocative fictional documentary set in a fabricated future where UKIP have won the 2015 general election.
"A Ukip government would lead to riots in the streets and the loss of millions of jobs after the UK leaves the EU, according to Channel 4 docudrama screening tomorrow.
Ukip: The First 100 Days mixes archive footage with scripted scenes featuring actress Priyanga Burford playing the part of the party's only Asian woman MP.
The show predicts riots in the streets between protesters for and against the raids and features a factory closing after EU withdrawal.""
I'm honestly surprised that UKIP have allowed this to be broadcast in an election year on terrestrial TV. They should have killed this off or at least gotten it delayed until after May. It is a hit and run by Channel 4 to make UKIP look bad and nothing more.
I don't see that its up to UKIP to allow it.
There was a comment from Channel 4 that as this is outside of the election period it's OK.
"Nick Mirsky, Channel 4's head of documentaries, denied that the film, which airs ay 9pm, was 'anti-Ukip', but admitted that it did not have to be 'politically balanced' because was being shown outside of the official Election campaign period, which starts on March 30."
''Outside Greater London, and core cities, UKIP must now be polling c.20% in England. In their best counties (Essex, Kent, Lincs. Staffs, South Yorks., Cornwall) that must be more like 25-30%.''
If that is true, its curtains for the tories, surely.
Most of my friends say they are voting UKIP, and most of them say if people ask they say "don't know" to avoid the arguments/having to justify themselves/deny racism etc
Have UKIP ever lost a seat/election which they were favourites to win?
They haven't won a seat where the incumbent hasn't defected.
That's true, how long you think it will last? I don't suppose you want to bet, as you never do, but
What price UKIP to win a seat at the GE that they don't currently hold? You make the price
The big thing in UKIP's favour is that they are guaranteed as much broadcast media coverage as the Lib Dems in the election campaign, ie 80% of the coverage for Labour and Conservatives. That has always boosted the Lib Dem rating in the past, and may do the same for UKIP.
Big Ukip publicity tonight on C4 remember !
C4 9pm
UKIP: The First 100 Days
A ground-breaking and provocative fictional documentary set in a fabricated future where UKIP have won the 2015 general election.
"A Ukip government would lead to riots in the streets and the loss of millions of jobs after the UK leaves the EU, according to Channel 4 docudrama screening tomorrow.
Ukip: The First 100 Days mixes archive footage with scripted scenes featuring actress Priyanga Burford playing the part of the party's only Asian woman MP.
The show predicts riots in the streets between protesters for and against the raids and features a factory closing after EU withdrawal.""
Looks like the film maker is part of the establishment...
"Investigative journalist Chris Atkins, who made the 2009 documentary Starsuckers to reveal the “shams and deceit” involved in celebrity reporting, is accused of being involved in a complex five-year scam to cheat the taxman, along with 12 others, including seven investment bankers.
The scheme supposedly enabled the investment bankers, three of whom are former employees of the state-owned Royal Bank of Scotland, to submit bogus tax returns to claim tax relief on losses between January 2007 and February 2012.
The alleged plot is said to relate to Starsuckers and several other films which were never made.
Atkins is facing a single count of conspiring to cheat the public revenue. Another Hampstead man, investment banker Hamish Maclellan, 41, of South Hill Park, faces the same charge."
''Outside Greater London, and core cities, UKIP must now be polling c.20% in England. In their best counties (Essex, Kent, Lincs. Staffs, South Yorks., Cornwall) that must be more like 25-30%.''
If that is true, its curtains for the tories, surely.
Most of my friends say they are voting UKIP, and most of them say if people ask they say "don't know" to avoid the arguments/having to justify themselves/deny racism etc
How would they voted in previous elections, do you think?
''Outside Greater London, and core cities, UKIP must now be polling c.20% in England. In their best counties (Essex, Kent, Lincs. Staffs, South Yorks., Cornwall) that must be more like 25-30%.''
If that is true, its curtains for the tories, surely.
Most of my friends say they are voting UKIP, and most of them say if people ask they say "don't know" to avoid the arguments/having to justify themselves/deny racism etc
Spiral of silence from Kippers. Just like in the Daily Telegraph comments ;-)
Have UKIP ever lost a seat/election which they were favourites to win?
They haven't won a seat where the incumbent hasn't defected.
That's true, how long you think it will last? I don't suppose you want to bet, as you never do, but
What price UKIP to win a seat at the GE that they don't currently hold? You make the price
The big thing in UKIP's favour is that they are guaranteed as much broadcast media coverage as the Lib Dems in the election campaign, ie 80% of the coverage for Labour and Conservatives. That has always boosted the Lib Dem rating in the past, and may do the same for UKIP.
Big Ukip publicity tonight on C4 remember !
C4 9pm
UKIP: The First 100 Days
A ground-breaking and provocative fictional documentary set in a fabricated future where UKIP have won the 2015 general election.
"A Ukip government would lead to riots in the streets and the loss of millions of jobs after the UK leaves the EU, according to Channel 4 docudrama screening tomorrow.
Ukip: The First 100 Days mixes archive footage with scripted scenes featuring actress Priyanga Burford playing the part of the party's only Asian woman MP.
The show predicts riots in the streets between protesters for and against the raids and features a factory closing after EU withdrawal.""
I'm honestly surprised that UKIP have allowed this to be broadcast in an election year on terrestrial TV. They should have killed this off or at least gotten it delayed until after May. It is a hit and run by Channel 4 to make UKIP look bad and nothing more.
I don't see that its up to UKIP to allow it.
There was a comment from Channel 4 that as this is outside of the election period it's OK.
"Nick Mirsky, Channel 4's head of documentaries, denied that the film, which airs ay 9pm, was 'anti-Ukip', but admitted that it did not have to be 'politically balanced' because was being shown outside of the official Election campaign period, which starts on March 30."
Must have been a stunning speech from EdM..All of the pundits are talking about the red lights flashing in the background.....do they actually employ an events manager..
''Outside Greater London, and core cities, UKIP must now be polling c.20% in England. In their best counties (Essex, Kent, Lincs. Staffs, South Yorks., Cornwall) that must be more like 25-30%.''
If that is true, its curtains for the tories, surely.
On balance, it probably hurts the Tories, but not by as much as some people think. In Cornwall, UKIP takes almost as much support from Lib Dems and Labour as Conservatives. Ditto in South Yorks. or Staffs (with Labour). And, the Conservatives can never win a seat like Rother Valley or Grimsby. UKIP might unite all the non-Labour voters behind them.
In Kent and Essex, the sort of seats where UKIP is doing well are seats that were held by Labour not long ago, so there's an opportunity cost for Labour.
I understand the Greens are going to have a candidate in every seat in England and Wales, the deposits having been crowdfunded.
what percentage of their donors also support the Tories?
Who cares? The more interesting question is what percentage of their voters used to support Labour.
The Greens have their best recruiting sergeant in a generation. Take a bow, Ed Miliband....
And their Publicity Officer. Take a bow, David Cameron....
That said, I expect their best results to be in very safe Labour seats and a few LibDem seats. I doubt they wil alter the outcome in more than a handful of seats, and those will probably be delivering LibDem seats to Labour.
PoliticsHome @politicshome 5m5 minutes ago Ed Miliband says Labour "will ensure executive pay is connected to performance" by putting employees on remuneration committees
Not sure how the first part is ensured by the second part, but I am sure it sounds good in the papers.
I've done a lot of Board level work with Scandi companies where there are elected employee representative directors. In the main, they have been valuable additions to the discussions, with different perspectives and non-political. I would be very resistant to unions getting to appoint directors, because I think they would be political, but most employees are pretty sensible
Fair enough Charles.
Interesting policy idea from Ed.
Remco membership is pretty pointless, to be honest, and he's made it a political remit straight away.
Just make them normal directors - with all the responsibilities and duties of directors - but elected by employees not shareholders.
So, not really an interesting policy idea from Ed: he's trying to be too clever by half. Once a tinkerer, always a tinkerer.
He's the Heir to Brown.
Alas we don't really have a mechanism for electing employee representatives other than unions (we stagger on where they are already required, such as ICE). I worked on a similar project to put a Scandanavian/German system in place in one company and that was the immediate problem.
It's not complex. One company I'm involved with has outsourced it to the Electoral Reform Society...
''Outside Greater London, and core cities, UKIP must now be polling c.20% in England. In their best counties (Essex, Kent, Lincs. Staffs, South Yorks., Cornwall) that must be more like 25-30%.''
If that is true, its curtains for the tories, surely.
Most of my friends say they are voting UKIP, and most of them say if people ask they say "don't know" to avoid the arguments/having to justify themselves/deny racism etc
Spiral of silence from Kippers. Just like in the Daily Telegraph comments ;-)
DT comments are anonymous, as is posting here more or less. When you get some nice young lady on the telephone from the polling company its a whole different matter. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Social_desirability_bias
One of the UK Independence party’s most generous donors has dropped his threat never to fund the party again, and plans to spend £100,000 helping to run its general election campaign.
Stuart Wheeler, who has given Ukip more than £700,000 during the past five years, has threatened to stop donating to the party after a row over the fate of his ally Neil Hamilton, the party’s deputy chairman.
But in an interview with the Financial Times, Mr Wheeler said he had decided to give a further £100,000 during the next few months in an effort to secure the seats Ukip is targeting at May’s election.
Despite his donations, Mr Wheeler predicted the party would fall well short of the £7m-£8m target he said had been set by Nigel Farage, the party’s leader.
I understand the Greens are going to have a candidate in every seat in England and Wales, the deposits having been crowdfunded.
what percentage of their donors also support the Tories?
Who cares? The more interesting question is what percentage of their voters used to support Labour.
The Greens have their best recruiting sergeant in a generation. Take a bow, Ed Miliband....
And their Publicity Officer. Take a bow, David Cameron....
That said, I expect their best results to be in very safe Labour seats and a few LibDem seats. I doubt they wil alter the outcome in more than a handful of seats, and those will probably be delivering LibDem seats to Labour.
I'm more intrigued by the damage they could do to the LibDems in the South West
''Outside Greater London, and core cities, UKIP must now be polling c.20% in England. In their best counties (Essex, Kent, Lincs. Staffs, South Yorks., Cornwall) that must be more like 25-30%.''
If that is true, its curtains for the tories, surely.
Most of my friends say they are voting UKIP, and most of them say if people ask they say "don't know" to avoid the arguments/having to justify themselves/deny racism etc
How would they voted in previous elections, do you think?
Mostly Tory.. my Dad, my oldest mate and myself are the only ones who voted Labour previously
Mums staying Labour, and one of my mates who lives in Brentwood is voting Tory because he has got the contract for the air conditioning in their HQ (Derbyshire?)
''Outside Greater London, and core cities, UKIP must now be polling c.20% in England. In their best counties (Essex, Kent, Lincs. Staffs, South Yorks., Cornwall) that must be more like 25-30%.''
If that is true, its curtains for the tories, surely.
On balance, it probably hurts the Tories, but not by as much as some people think. In Cornwall, UKIP takes almost as much support from Lib Dems and Labour as Conservatives. Ditto in South Yorks. or Staffs (with Labour). And, the Conservatives can never win a seat like Rother Valley or Grimsby. UKIP might unite all the non-Labour voters behind them.
In Kent and Essex, the sort of seats where UKIP is doing well are seats that were held by Labour not long ago, so there's an opportunity cost for Labour.
The Tories would have won Grimsby last time had Austin Mitchell packed it in 5 years earlier. But you're right about the nuanced effects of large UKIP votes.
Yes, the answer is spending limits. Strict and inflexible.
It negates the reason for vast sums of cash. You can only hoard it not spend it.
Agreed. We all blow money on stuff like billboards and cold calling that really we could do without and only do because the other side do, and trying to stop the money is much harder than stiopping the spending. YouGov is pretty clear today - people tend to be wary of Labour funding, very wary of Tory funding, but prefer both to taxpayer funding.
PoliticsHome @politicshome 5m5 minutes ago Ed Miliband says Labour "will ensure executive pay is connected to performance" by putting employees on remuneration committees
Not sure how the first part is ensured by the second part, but I am sure it sounds good in the papers.
I've done a lot of Board level work with Scandi companies where there are elected employee representative directors. In the main, they have been valuable additions to the discussions, with different perspectives and non-political. I would be very resistant to unions getting to appoint directors, because I think they would be political, but most employees are pretty sensible
When I was at Novartis (Switzerland) I led a pro-union group that swept the board in staff elections all the way up to management level (people were tired of the placid staff association). The company shrugged nonchanlantly and put us all into committees to consult on everything, which was interesing enough (and some ideas were adopted so not a waste of time) but took so much time that it distracted us from union activity. On the whole, I think most people thought it win-win - our energy was being channelled productively instead of just criticising.
Have UKIP ever lost a seat/election which they were favourites to win?
They haven't won a seat where the incumbent hasn't defected.
That's true, how long you think it will last? I don't suppose you want to bet, as you never do, but
What price UKIP to win a seat at the GE that they don't currently hold? You make the price
The big thing in UKIP's favour is that they are guaranteed as much broadcast media coverage as the Lib Dems in the election campaign, ie 80% of the coverage for Labour and Conservatives. That has always boosted the Lib Dem rating in the past, and may do the same for UKIP.
Big Ukip publicity tonight on C4 remember !
C4 9pm
UKIP: The First 100 Days
A ground-breaking and provocative fictional documentary set in a fabricated future where UKIP have won the 2015 general election.
"A Ukip government would lead to riots in the streets and the loss of millions of jobs after the UK leaves the EU, according to Channel 4 docudrama screening tomorrow.
Ukip: The First 100 Days mixes archive footage with scripted scenes featuring actress Priyanga Burford playing the part of the party's only Asian woman MP.
The show predicts riots in the streets between protesters for and against the raids and features a factory closing after EU withdrawal.""
I'm honestly surprised that UKIP have allowed this to be broadcast in an election year on terrestrial TV. They should have killed this off or at least gotten it delayed until after May. It is a hit and run by Channel 4 to make UKIP look bad and nothing more.
I don't see that its up to UKIP to allow it.
There was a comment from Channel 4 that as this is outside of the election period it's OK.
"Nick Mirsky, Channel 4's head of documentaries, denied that the film, which airs ay 9pm, was 'anti-Ukip', but admitted that it did not have to be 'politically balanced' because was being shown outside of the official Election campaign period, which starts on March 30."
In UKIP's place I probably would have tied it up in court until after the election.
I'm not sure this sort of thing hurts them.
Guardianistas will reassure themselves that UKIP are evil. There'll be a brief debate about Channel 4 bias, and UK voters will have their impressions of anti-UKIP media bias reinforced.
Agreed. We all blow money on stuff like billboards and cold calling that really we could do without and only do because the other side do, and trying to stop the money is much harder than stiopping the spending. YouGov is pretty clear today - people tend to be wary of Labour funding, very wary of Tory funding, but prefer both to taxpayer funding.
Both sides spending lots of money = barrier to entry for others. Be careful what you wish for.
Comments
This is a worse poll for UKIP than some of their 13% UKIP polls last year.
http://www.populus.co.uk/Our-Methodology/Polling/
Just make them normal directors - with all the responsibilities and duties of directors - but elected by employees not shareholders.
So, not really an interesting policy idea from Ed: he's trying to be too clever by half. Once a tinkerer, always a tinkerer.
But I don't think there's any getting away from the fact that last week we moved from Lab +0.5 to about Lab +2 - the question is whether that's ephemeral or not.
UKIP over 6.5 17/10
C4 9pm
UKIP: The First 100 Days
A ground-breaking and provocative fictional documentary set in a fabricated future where UKIP have won the 2015 general election.
"A Ukip government would lead to riots in the streets and the loss of millions of jobs after the UK leaves the EU, according to Channel 4 docudrama screening tomorrow.
Ukip: The First 100 Days mixes archive footage with scripted scenes featuring actress Priyanga Burford playing the part of the party's only Asian woman MP.
The show predicts riots in the streets between protesters for and against the raids and features a factory closing after EU withdrawal.""
I read one analysis which suggested the Conservatives might make a clean sweep in Cornwall with only 30% of the vote.
UKIP are a major party in England & Wales, but not Scotland, whereas the Lib Dems are a major party in England & Wales and Scotland.
I was doing some research on what this would mean theoretically during the campaign, and it might not favour UKIP as much as it does the Lib Dems, when the news is on a national basis.
"Investigative journalist Chris Atkins, who made the 2009 documentary Starsuckers to reveal the “shams and deceit” involved in celebrity reporting, is accused of being involved in a complex five-year scam to cheat the taxman, along with 12 others, including seven investment bankers.
The scheme supposedly enabled the investment bankers, three of whom are former employees of the state-owned Royal Bank of Scotland, to submit bogus tax returns to claim tax relief on losses between January 2007 and February 2012.
The alleged plot is said to relate to Starsuckers and several other films which were never made.
Atkins is facing a single count of conspiring to cheat the public revenue. Another Hampstead man, investment banker Hamish Maclellan, 41, of South Hill Park, faces the same charge."
http://www.hamhigh.co.uk/news/crime-court/hampstead_journalist_who_exposed_wrongdoing_to_stand_trial_over_alleged_2_5million_tax_scam_1_3342073
It wouldn't work for the major parties, but UKIP is different.
If that is true, its curtains for the tories, surely.
There was a comment from Channel 4 that as this is outside of the election period it's OK.
"Nick Mirsky, Channel 4's head of documentaries, denied that the film, which airs ay 9pm, was 'anti-Ukip', but admitted that it did not have to be 'politically balanced' because was being shown outside of the official Election campaign period, which starts on March 30."
Read more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2953843/It-s-liberal-left-poppycock-Ukip-fury-C4-predicts-race-riots-Farage-wins-election.html
Will be more heat than light..
In Kent and Essex, the sort of seats where UKIP is doing well are seats that were held by Labour not long ago, so there's an opportunity cost for Labour.
The Greens have their best recruiting sergeant in a generation. Take a bow, Ed Miliband....
And their Publicity Officer. Take a bow, David Cameron....
That said, I expect their best results to be in very safe Labour seats and a few LibDem seats. I doubt they wil alter the outcome in more than a handful of seats, and those will probably be delivering LibDem seats to Labour.
Stuart Wheeler, who has given Ukip more than £700,000 during the past five years, has threatened to stop donating to the party after a row over the fate of his ally Neil Hamilton, the party’s deputy chairman.
But in an interview with the Financial Times, Mr Wheeler said he had decided to give a further £100,000 during the next few months in an effort to secure the seats Ukip is targeting at May’s election.
Despite his donations, Mr Wheeler predicted the party would fall well short of the £7m-£8m target he said had been set by Nigel Farage, the party’s leader.
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/bbce45fa-ac7f-11e4-9aaa-00144feab7de.html#axzz3RudC7aHV
Mums staying Labour, and one of my mates who lives in Brentwood is voting Tory because he has got the contract for the air conditioning in their HQ (Derbyshire?)
http://www.salfordonline.com/editorschoice_page/15714-'when_boris_met_dave'_tv_documentary_'not_political_stirring'_-_channel_4.html
Guardianistas will reassure themselves that UKIP are evil. There'll be a brief debate about Channel 4 bias, and UK voters will have their impressions of anti-UKIP media bias reinforced.
https://yougov.co.uk/news/2014/05/20/voters-think-media-more-biased-against-UKIP/
He's never been elected since
Labour tax message hitting home.
Last time lower - 5 May 2010.